I love test cricket.
This blog is the best blog about cricket.
Thursday, 8 November 2012
Budgets, costings etc
A lot of people say why is there a budget deficit when there is/was a commodity price boom.
These people have never examined budget papers. the latest MYEFO has this for Taxation as a % of GDP
Being very conservative compare the yellow episodes with the blue ones.
If Swan had Costello revenue figures he would have few deficits at all. Costello would have few surpluses if he had Swan's revenues.
What is most important in examining future budget figures is nominal GDP. This has been lower than trend in recent times. Whereas real GDP has been higher than trend.
So the change from deficit to balanced budget has come from expenditure.
Joe Hockey has a bad memory regarding budget costing leaks .
There is nothing wrong with the government getting Treasury to look at Opposition policies.
The Opposition can now use the PBO to cost their policies.There is now no excuse for their costings debacle from the last election.
These people have never examined budget papers. the latest MYEFO has this for Taxation as a % of GDP
| 2002-03 | 192,131 | 24.0 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003-04 | 206,091 | 24.0 | ||||||
| 2004-05 | 223,314 | 24.2 | ||||||
| 2005-06 | 241,215 | 24.2 | ||||||
| 2006-07 | 257,392 | 23.8 | ||||||
| 2007-08 | 278,376 | 23.7 | ||||||
| 2008-09 | 272,627 | 21.8 | ||||||
| 2009-10 | 260,973 | 20.2 | ||||||
| 2010-11 | 280,839 | 20.1 | ||||||
| 2011-12 | 309,943 | 21.1 | ||||||
| 2012-13(e) | 339,209 | 22.2 |
Being very conservative compare the yellow episodes with the blue ones.
If Swan had Costello revenue figures he would have few deficits at all. Costello would have few surpluses if he had Swan's revenues.
What is most important in examining future budget figures is nominal GDP. This has been lower than trend in recent times. Whereas real GDP has been higher than trend.
So the change from deficit to balanced budget has come from expenditure.
Joe Hockey has a bad memory regarding budget costing leaks .
There is nothing wrong with the government getting Treasury to look at Opposition policies.
The Opposition can now use the PBO to cost their policies.There is now no excuse for their costings debacle from the last election.
Wednesday, 7 November 2012
Nate Silver and The US Election
I think Robert Waldeman writes about how we should be quite impressed with Nate Silver the best.
Quite clearly people who do not understand basic statistics and desperately wanted Romney to win, like the crowd at Catallaxy, were shown to be complete imbeciles.
So too the pundits. Just take a peek at Brad De Long on the sidebar.
Republicans now have to decide who is more important. Those that can count or those that cannot!
Update.
this is interesting
nuther one.
Grog's Gamut puts an Aussie perspective on the election.
yikes I forgot our own Simon Jackman doing the same stuff Nate Silver did for the New York times with the same accuracy for the Huffington Post
Last comment but this is a must read if you are a wonk on this.
Quite clearly people who do not understand basic statistics and desperately wanted Romney to win, like the crowd at Catallaxy, were shown to be complete imbeciles.
So too the pundits. Just take a peek at Brad De Long on the sidebar.
Republicans now have to decide who is more important. Those that can count or those that cannot!
Update.
this is interesting
nuther one.
Grog's Gamut puts an Aussie perspective on the election.
yikes I forgot our own Simon Jackman doing the same stuff Nate Silver did for the New York times with the same accuracy for the Huffington Post
Last comment but this is a must read if you are a wonk on this.
Monday, 5 November 2012
US elections
With regard to economic policy.I agree with Noah Smith.
Four years ago I agreed with Paul Krugman that Obama was being naive in believing he could get Republicans to do anything on a bipartisan basis.
That turned out to be true. I find it amusing to hear Republicans criticising Obama for 'not reaching out' to them.
Obama's mistake was being far too conservative with regard to the economic stimulus he asked for.
One really doesn't know what Romney would do. Would he indulge in 'expansionary austerity' or simply boost the deficit as both Reagan and Bush did in good times. I think probably the latter.
Four years ago I agreed with Paul Krugman that Obama was being naive in believing he could get Republicans to do anything on a bipartisan basis.
That turned out to be true. I find it amusing to hear Republicans criticising Obama for 'not reaching out' to them.
Obama's mistake was being far too conservative with regard to the economic stimulus he asked for.
One really doesn't know what Romney would do. Would he indulge in 'expansionary austerity' or simply boost the deficit as both Reagan and Bush did in good times. I think probably the latter.
Sunday, 4 November 2012
Who will be the next US Prez?
I cannot be original so I will outsource my thoughts to Paul Krugman.
In essence if the polls are accurate it is another four years for Obama.
In essence if the polls are accurate it is another four years for Obama.
Thursday, 1 November 2012
A comparison of Blogs
I will say nothing.
Simply compare this article by John Quiggin and its responses to this article by Steve Kates and its responses. Please note Peter Whiteford's contributions in both.
Actually I will hint at my thoughts.
Here is Steve Kates writing complete nonsense about polling in the USA.
Compare to say Ezra Klein.
Steve Kates works at RMIT? how does this man have a job?
Simply compare this article by John Quiggin and its responses to this article by Steve Kates and its responses. Please note Peter Whiteford's contributions in both.
Actually I will hint at my thoughts.
Here is Steve Kates writing complete nonsense about polling in the USA.
Compare to say Ezra Klein.
Steve Kates works at RMIT? how does this man have a job?
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)