the Budget

 Okay here are a few views:

• Stephen Bartos
• John Hawkins
• Ross Gittins
• Greg Jericho
• Nicki Hutley

(If any others come in late I will  link them as well.)

I agree with all three and like ross Gittins am pleasantly surprised by the budget.

A couple of points.

1. It is about time someone di something about CGT and negative gearing ever since howard and costello gave first home buyers the middle finger. The benefits are highly skewed towards very high income earners See
2. A lot of people are missing the productivity improvements. they are somewhat nebulous as the  programs have few figures etc but they are substantive.
3. The structural deficit improves which means there is mild contraction in fiscal policy and overall a deficit of only 1% of GDP is small just ask the yanks.
4. The improvement in fiscal policy relies a lot on NDIS cutbacks. Will the pollies have the backbone for it. however the improvements are more long term rather than short or even medium term

I laughed at Mark Bouris's reaction. Can someone ask him how many negatively eared properties he has please. It is a lot!!!

• Ken Henry

Antony Green on Farrer

 I have put this article on yesterday's post but on reflection it deserves a post of its own.

Here it is

farrer-by-election-post-mortem-where-to-now-for-the-coalition

this is easily the most thoughtful piece on the result I have read. The most basic message. One Nation is an electoral threat to the ALP BUT they are an existential threat to the LNP!!!

The Farrer by-election.

 Before I start here are some articles:

• farrer-by-election-live
  
•  view-from-the-hill-post-farrer-liberals-will-struggle-with-awkward-questions-about-their-relations-with-one-nation 
• with-wind-in-its-sails-one-nation-looks-to-replicate-farrer-success-in-victoria-and-federally 
  
• ignore-the-polls-one-nation-is-the-unofficial-opposition 
  

Let us put this into perspective. One Nation has taken a seat from Liberal heartland and made it a safe one nation seat.

This is despite a miserable campaign from their candidate and one nation having to 'release from staff a convicted rapist. ( Imagine the furore if albo had to get rid of an convicted rapist on their staff!).

Nothing stuck. voters did not care

The independent candidate was labelled a teal because wait for it she took some money from climate 200. Did her policies mirror those of Teal mp's? Well no.

Thus you had sheer hypocrisy. Criticising the one nation candidate was a personal attack but doing it to the independent candidate was fair game.

This result means that in the regions there is no safe Liberal or National seat. One Nation on this result will take a lot of 'safe' LNP seats. ( remember what I said about Littleproud resigning!). The Nationals will become a rump party!

The more the Liberals ( and Nationals) advocate one nation type policies the more their safe city seats become 'Tealy'.

Do the math. It is possible one nation becomes the largest party after the next election. However one problem for one nation is that preferences will flow to them from either the Liberals or Nationals in regional australia however it is doubtful this will be as consistent in the outer western seats. Just remember a person voting Liberal will know preferences is now not just an academic exercise!

The major question now is whether voters will overlook one nation quirks and failures. They clearly did not do this with Farley and with at least one candidate in the SA election. At present they do not get interviewed by anyone who is not seen as sympathetic to them.

We live in interesting times

Late but a great article. Antony Green on farrer-by-election-post-mortem-where-to-now-for-the-coalition

Around the Traps 8/5/26

 it is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Saam Roggeveen on canberra-can-t-want-alliance-more-washington-does
• Adam Andreotto on ai-road-safety-cameras-are-fuelling-a-surge-in-driver-fines-are-they-fair
• Michelle Grattan on antisemitism-royal-commissions-interim-report-leaves-key-questions-dangling
• Nicki Hutley on rba-governors-frank-message-on-the-economy-is-the-biggest-shock
• Stella Huangfu on with-no-easy-options-rba-raises-interest-rates-for-the-third-time-to-quell-inflation
• Gabrielle Appleby on is-australian-democracy-eroding
• Richard Neuman on why-your-next-car-most-likely-be-ev-made-china
• Mark the Graph on finding-r-star-after-great-divergence
• Greg Jericho on in-this-budget-all-eyes-are-on-cgt-but-labors-rumoured-family-trust-tweaks-might-also-help-fight-tax-inequality
• Ben Saul on islamic-state-wives-return-is-no-threat-but-our-cruelty-to-their-kids-is-shameful
• Tina Soliman-Hunter on the-governments-plans-to-bolster-australias-fuel-stores-are-sensible-but-5-years-too-late
• Hiya Harinandini et al on beyond-model-minority-rethinking-australia-s-indian-diaspora
• Kevin Morrison on australian-gas-exporters-will-be-forced-to-set-aside-local-supply-for-domestic-users

OZ Climate

• six-wind-farms-two-solar-hybrids-and-seven-hour-batteries-win-key-cis-tenders-ahead-of-coal-closure
  
• huge-wind-and-battery-project-becomes-first-to-seal-local-benefits-deal-under-rigorous-new-planning-regime
  
• no-more-dark-side-of-the-grid-the-fossil-fuel-empire-loses-ground-to-renewables-and-storage
  
• big-batteries-set-new-charging-records-despite-lack-of-price-volatility
  
• ninety-landholders-3-mobs-two-100-tonne-transformers-90-km-of-cable-marinus-links-long-road-to-coal-country
  
• aussie-researchers-harness-ai-to-help-unlock-cheap-scalable-non-toxic-solar-recycling
  
• record-battery-output-big-winds-push-monthly-gas-generation-to-lowest-level-in-more-than-two-decades
  
• rebate-frenzy-shatters-records-for-home-batteries-and-doubles-year-on-year-rooftop-solar-growth
  
• why-australias-biggest-isolated-grid-now-leads-rest-of-country-in-race-to-reach-80-pct-renewables
  
• worlds-islanded-grids-are-test-beds-for-high-penetration-renewables-storage-and-advanced-controls
  
• nsw-to-fast-track-approvals-for-key-wind-solar-and-network-projects-in-race-to-quit-coal-and-power-smelter
  
• how-rooftop-solar-and-home-batteries-became-kryptonite-to-big-coal-and-the-fossil-fuel-industry
  
• blows-your-mind-regulator-says-boom-in-home-batteries-and-pv-puts-82-pct-renewables-within-reach
  
• the-spot-mirage-low-wholesale-prices-show-the-future-but-are-a-poor-signal-for-new-wind-and-solar
  
• federal-labor-unveils-plans-for-fossil-gas-reservation-to-ensure-share-of-production-is-not-exported
• i-thought-this-was-impossible-fortescue-green-grid-rides-through-transmission-failure-with-no-fossil-fuels
  
• Haidee Cadd et al on lake-mud-reveals-7-000-years-of-kangaroo-islands-complex-fire-history 
• Petra Stock on second-driest-april-nsw-likely-el-nino-australia-weather

Northern America

• institutional economics on us-productivity-growth-treasury-yields
• Kruggers on how-trump-screwed-himself , curing-us-health-care-part-ii , the-death-star-administration , dont-cry-for-jeff-bezoss-yacht , the-super-rich-are-different-from , unlocked-repost-curing-us-health
• Lydia Khalil on trump-gutted-very-programs-designed-protect-him
• noahpinion on californias-billionaire-tax-is-the-wrong-approach , barack-obama-was-a-successful-president
• Nicholas Grossman on trump-iran-war-reality-check
• Astead Heardon on heather-cox-richardson-america-at-250-grade-history
• Jeff McCausland on hegseth-iran-testimony-house-armed-services
• Dahlia Lithwick on trump-news-todd-blanche-pam-bondi-fail
• Molly Omstead on trump-no-kings-alabama-penis-grandma-trial-protest
• Trent Bridgeman and Brian Finnicane on iran-hostilities-war-powers-restart-clock
• Ken dilaniaan and Carol Leonnig on fbi-investigating-leaks-to-journalist-who-wrote-explosive-article-on-kash-patel-sources
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-callais-voting-rights-citizens-united , louise-lucas-fbi-raid-fox-news-todd-blanche , virginia-supreme-court-gerrymandering-decision-republicans-win
• David Cole on the-second-redemption-voting-rights-act
• Jeet Heer on politics/trump-iran-christopher-caldwell-american-decline, ken-martin-dnc-autopsy-pod-save-america
• democracy docket on bert-callais-plaintiff-case-gutted-voting-rights-act-election-conspiracist-jan-6
• Liz Dye on alito-callais

Europe

• James Paterson on hungary-shows-illiberal-regimes-can-be-beaten-harder-question-whether-they-can-be
• Tyler Cowen on the-ordinary-men-of-the-nazi-party
• Joshua Keating on ukraine-russia-war-iran-drones
• mainly macro on uk-decline-and-stylised-empirical-facts.html?utm_source=follow.it
• Vladimir Bortun on after-a-year-of-reform-uk-in-local-government-the-cracks-are-starting-to-show
• Jon Richardson on russia-doesnt-have-much-to-celebrate-on-victory-day-as-ukraine-brings-the-war-home-to-putin
• Isaac Chotiner on the-uks-antisemitism-problem

Asia

• Nischal Dhungel on when-tankers-stop-tractors-stop
• Henry Storey on asean-s-rules-origin-problem
• Martin Kear on netanyahu-has-pledged-to-finish-the-job-against-hezbollah-its-a-promise-he-cant-deliver-on
• Amin Saikal and Amitav Archarya on no-fear-of-roaring-lions-iran-has-a-long-history-of-standing-firm-against-outside-aggressors
• Lynne O'Donnell on beijing-arrived-late-war-it-cannot-end
• Vivek Krishnamurthy on the-method-in-irans-madness-closure-of-strait-of-hormuz-echoes-a-centuries-old-danish-play-and-is-a-tragedy-for-the-world-order
• Cicept Hidayat and Sondang Sirait on indonesia-democracy-without-collapse
• Thomas Wright on how-trump-got-iran-wrong
• Christopher de Bellaigue on irans-new-winter
• Ishaan Tharoor on how-the-iran-war-is-shifting-power-toward-china
• Fred Kaplan on trump-iran-peace-deal-war-news-oil

Wonk

• David Runciman on gangster politics Thanks Nick
• Martin McKenzie-Murray on heres-piety-your-eye Thanks Nick
• Nicholas Humphrey on you-know-what-consciousness-is-you-live-in-soul-land thanks Nick
• the drying of the isles on the-drying-of-the-isles Thanks Nick
• Sally Hammond on think-tanks-have-defeated-democracy Thanks Nick
• Luke Carman on getting-square-in-a-jerking-circle Thanks Nick
• Howard Wiseman on physicists-have-measured-negative-time-in-the-lab
• Mark the Graph on update-on-iran-war-mexican-standoff , weekly-energy-update
• mainly macro on capital-and-right-wing-populism , should-government-compensate-consumers-for-cost-of-living-shocks
• Tim Harford on lessons-from-your-petrol-pump
• the conversable economist on spring-2026-journal-of-economic-perspectives-freely-available-online , the-worlds-most-populous-city-builds-mass-transit
• Abhinandan Kumar on un-not-broken-it-was-built-way
• noahpinion on ais-big-messaging-pivot , could-development-economics-be-more-useful
• Chris Dillow on hating-freedom
• Home and away on the-choice-to-end-a-war-of-choice
• Chris Ogden on iran-wants-oil-tariffs-paid-in-chinese-yuan-is-the-power-of-the-us-petrodollar-in-decline

General

• Alberto Filgueiras on arsenal-might-be-choking-again-in-englands-premier-league-here-are-4-psychological-fixes
• Euan Ritchie on from-fossicking-for-fossils-to-a-champion-for-life-on-earth-sir-david-attenborough-at-100

Climate

• Larelle Bossi on quiet-contradiction-heart-energy-transition
• Meredith Jones on oil-refineries-are-catching-fire-in-war-or-by-accident-how-does-this-worsen-the-energy-crunch
• Benji Jones on bolivia-deforestation-mennonites-climate-change
• skeptical science on fact-brief-windwhales , climate-change-is-destroying-lives-now
• Renske Jongen et al on warming-seas-can-threaten-the-hidden-relationship-that-supports-seagrass-meadows
• ocean acidification on acidification-in-coastal-waters-of-adelie-land-antarctica-1985-2025 , coupled-ocean-warming-and-acidification-reduce-shell-integrity-and-bioenergetics-in-juvenile-mytilus-coruscus
• Wesley Morgan on much-needed-fresh-air-5-outcomes-from-the-worlds-first-summit-on-ending-fossil-fuels
• Manuel Esperon-Rodriguez on urban-trees-cool-the-worlds-cities-more-than-we-thought-but-we-cant-rely-on-them-alone

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• what-advice-do-you-have-for-this-student-whos-in-his-first-year-of-college-and-interested-in-both-statistics-and-political-science 
  
• John Carlin says
• an-economist-writes-the-fulminations-over-the-1-pick-seem-overheated-to-me
  
• for-once-some-scientific-fraudsters-have-to-pay-their-money-back-to-the-government
  
• expanding-the-stan-users-guide
  
• government policy
• handbook-of-markov-chain-monte-carlo-second-edition
  
• overall-i-remain-a-fan-of-oliver-sacks
  
• david-hogg-on-why-we-do-astrophysics-in-the-face-of-llms-and-the-lack-of-clinical-value
  
• statschat on briefly
• Kaiser Fung on the-climate-chart-that-sparks-a-count-v-ratio-debate ,  mta-is-waking-up

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• stoat on book-review-handmaids-wail
• Tyler Cowen on ryan-avents-new-book-in-good-faith
• Joel Eissenberg on money-beyond-borders-a-book-review
• Johanna Harris on how-to-read-the-classics-in-an-age-of-distraction-and-3-short-books-to-get-you-going

Vox Wonk

• macroeconomic-consequences-undermining-central-bank-independence-evidence-governor 
  
• connecting-job-seekers-buddies-online
  
• quantifying-impact-iran-war-us-inflation 
  
• how-countercyclical-capital-buffers-travel-internal-capital-markets-and-domestic
  
• use-and-misuse-rd-subsidies-and-tax-credits
  
• understanding-rise-ceo-age
  
• when-ai-meets-local-debt 
  
• way-out-strait-hormuz
  
• why-de-risking-may-not-deliver-large-peace-dividend
  

ISIS Brides.

 The last of the ISIS brides are coming home. I see a number of people who want to deny them passage back here even though they are Australiaan citizens. Just remember a number will be charged with crimes if only  for being in an area Aaustraalians cannot be.

On the whole subjest I agree with Ben Saul.

Just remember these are the last of the group. They started coming back when the LNP was in government. We have not had a whiff of anyone in the 'group' doing anything illegal let alone engaging in terrorist activity.

Just a thought but what do you think would occur in  their behaviour towards the group if you showed kindness. Part of this will be people accepting they made wrong decisions and therefore have to pay the consequences/punishment. 

Mothers  usually care more about bringing up their kids than ensuring their children become orphans for a cause. If the women believed that then it would have already occurred!!

I forgot to add most if not all of the brides went there as teenagers and males in ISIS are known as highly misogynous.

The RBA had no choice

 well the RBA raised rates.

see:

• Nicki Hutley
• Stella Huangfa

and heavily related that great star Mark the Graph

I want to go back into time and do a mea culpa.

I was one of those who thought the RBA was too slow in cutting rates. Everything around us at the time was showing inflation was dropping quickly and wages was NEVER a problem.

That proved wrong. It was wrong becaause the speed limit of the economy was now a lot lower than we previously thought. CBA economic research was first onto this ( after being like me hawkish on rate cutting.) Mark the Graph was also on the job writing brilliantly on this topic.

This also had consquences for fiscal policy. I was sympathetic towards the government. If the RBA is raising rates the budget should be at worst balalnced as Ken Henry has noted. A Government tightening fiscal plicy as the RBA is tightening monetary policy means avoiding a recession becomes quite hard.

However now wee all onow fidcal plocy has to be contractionary. The structural deficit is around $20b and this has to be cut.

I see nothing wrong with the government informing the RBA how much it will cut it. Neither wants to see a recession however the RBA does not want to see any supply side effect turn nito rising inflation!

The Bondi Royal Commision

 I am not happy with the Royal commision.

To my mind there are two things it needs to make judgement on.

1. Were the intelligence and security forces doing their properly in this instance.
2. Why did the two murderers do what they did

I am underwhelmed that Dennis Richardson gave up the ghost on the first. On the surface, as I have constantkly said, it is very hard to stop lone wolf events unless they are incredinly stupid. ( They have been thus far in Australia. We need to see in black and white whether they did their job !

We were told by all and sundry and presumably with the blessing of the various agencies that the two people were very influenced by ISIS. However we have had some politicians like our over-rated premier and some in the media say they were influenced by happenings in Gaza. 

The BIG problem here is the inherent contradiction between these beliefs. IF you are a fervent supporter of ISIS then how in the hell do you support Gazans when ISIS hates them to death. This would be cognitive dissonance big time. Another  problem was the  planning started well before October 7 and the consquences! 

Killing jews in Sydney makes no sense if you believed this for various reasons which are easily apparent.On the other hand killing jews in sydney does make sense if you are a disciple of ISIS.

On a related matter I am dissapointed the council of sydney have not allowed speakers talk on why globalise the Intifada should be banned as a slogan. I have written before how absurd it is for people to believe their lives are threatened in sydney over this phrase. Clearly a lot of education is needed. I hope the speakers can do this otherwise the event will be wasted.

Gerard Henderson watch

 Our friend Gerry is playing the grumpy old man well.

He didn't like panelists on Sally Sara's breakfast program not mentioning the bondi attack involved jews. Well unless you have been living under a rock everyone knows that! He is also with the crowd that allege that it was part of a anti-semitism wave in Australia. No mention from our Gerry of Iranian based motives and their hand in this nor of a criminal attempting to get a better deal by instigating anti-semitism 'problems'. What was also missing was how people who are essentially ISIS disciples' would kill jews because of Gaza when ISIS hates  Palestine and their people!

He is very good at saying people or organisations are left wing, far left wing etc BUT he never defines this. Is it absolute or relative for example. We do not know.

He doesn't like Jimmy Kimmel's joke. He clearly needs an education. Since self-awareness is not a Henderson strength he simply does not understand he is showing , like Chris Kenny did , a lot of ignorance of the topic. Perhaps he should get onto youtube and look up some don rickles roasts where the husband was a lot older than the wife and in advanced years!!

He also claims the independent in the Farrer by-election is a teal without any real explanation. For example is she campaigning on issues the teals have? This apparently too much worrk for our Gerry to do. He simply says climate 200 has contributed to her campaign. Okay how much money was it and was it comparable to the teals in the last election? It is all insinuation. A bit like when he continually refered to Obama as Barak hussein Obama. See

Around the Traps 1/5/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• anonymous on ndis-insider-reforms-conflict-of-interest-quality-auditor Thanks Nick
• Georgia Van Torn on ndis-eligibility-will-be-based-on-functional-capacity-not-diagnostic-labels-but-what-does-that-mean
• Helen Wolfenden on theyre-my-people-radio-presenter-james-valentine-truly-understood-and-valued-his-audience
• Mark the Graph on stagflation-lead-in-australias-saddle , inflation-causes-diagnosis-and-cures , should-rba-raise-rates-in-may-2026 , central-bank-purposefulness-take-two
• Tom Barber on ai-danger-no-longer-myth-it-s-called-mythos
• Frank Bongiorno on  the-times-seem-to-suit-anthony-albanese-so-why-isnt-he-more-popular
• Fei Gao on how-much-a-new-1-000-tax-offset-would-really-be-worth-and-whos-better-off-avoiding-it
• Rachel ViforJ on negative-gearing-tax-breaks-could-finally-be-tightened-in-the-may-budget-what-options-are-on-the-table
• Saul Eslake on cgt-capital-gains-discounts-tax-australia
• Imogen Richards on banning-protest-slogans-wont-end-antisemitism-we-need-to-understand-the-complex-forces-driving-it
• Greg Jericho on inflation-rba-interest-rate-rise-reserve-bank-australia-abs
• Stella Huangfu on australias-inflation-surge-just-made-an-rba-rate-rise-more-likely
• Andrea Carson and Dianna Bossin on albanese-governments-latest-attempt-to-make-tech-giants-pay-for-journalism-is-needed-but-carries-big-risks
• Sean Andrews on ocean-much-more-backdrop-australia-s-security
• Keiran Hardy on royal-commission-report-doesnt-help-us-start-making-sense-of-bondi-terror-attack
• Se Park on albanese-is-prioritising-politics-over-the-responsible-handling-of-isis-families-setting-a-dangerous-precedent
• Kvin Morrison on australia-isnt-getting-a-fair-share-of-tax-on-gas-exports-queensland-has-shown-how-to-raise-the-bar
• Rod Sims on making-tech-giants-pay-for-news-was-a-success-the-first-time-around-it-can-be-done-again

OZ Climate

• ill-sign-you-drill-state-puts-oil-and-gas-project-on-fast-track-one-day-after-calling-in-another-big-battery
  
• how-i-shocked-my-20-year-old-gas-bbq-back-to-life-with-an-electric-conversion
  
• wind-solar-and-battery-projects-at-record-high-but-most-stuck-in-funding-supply-chain-and-other-bottlenecks
  
• wind-solar-and-battery-projects-at-record-high-but-most-stuck-in-funding-supply-chain-and-other-bottlenecks
  
• aemo-looks-to-evs-data-centres-and-industry-to-help-ease-overload-of-rooftop-pv-in-middle-of-day
  
• cheaper-home-batteries-2-0-how-the-rebate-changes-will-affect-prices-and-consumer-choices 
  
• push-for-high-fixed-network-charges-could-kill-the-market-for-home-batteries-just-when-they-are-needed
  
• diesel-consumption-shows-the-decline-in-coal-a-specific-symptom-of-a-broader-need-for-renewal
  
• cant-recycle-solar-this-local-business-is-making-millions-from-copper-aluminium-sales
  
• batteries-both-big-and-small-have-reshaped-the-grid-and-forced-wholesale-prices-down-aemo-says 
  
• when-can-i-get-a-job-community-leaders-say-coal-country-ready-and-waiting-for-offshore-wind
  
• equitable-gas-exit-or-costly-death-spiral-new-report-says-the-choice-is-now-up-to-governments
  
• push-for-high-fixed-network-charges-could-kill-the-market-for-home-batteries-just-when-they-are-needed
  
• australias-sliding-doors-moment-from-dig-and-ship-to-trusted-renewables-transition-partner
  
• solar-and-battery-households-help-grid-by-importing-more-during-day-and-exporting-more-in-evening-peaks
  
• claims-of-huge-new-blow-outs-to-the-snowy-2-0-bill-are-just-plain-wrong
  
• Graham Readfearn on queenslands-renewable-energy-whiplash-how-the-shift-from-coal-stalled-in-australias-most-polluting-state
• Robyn Eckersly on why-the-coalitions-lurch-to-the-right-is-bad-for-the-climate
• Tony Wood on why-australia-has-to-boost-fuel-supply-and-electrify-transport
• Mike Foley and Nic Toscano on australia-s-battery-boom-has-doubled-in-a-year-and-is-rewiring-the-energy-grid
• Peter Hartcher on how-power-from-the-people-carbon-dates-the-opposition

Northern America

• institutional economics on war-and-the-second-moment-in-us-equities
• James Piazza on latest-attack-threatening-president-trump-reflects-rising-political-violence-in-us
• Missy Ryan et al on iran-war-vance-hegseth-trump
• Eric Kramer on europe-ukraine-and-iran-and-trumps-impaired-emotional-cognitive-relationship-to-negative-consequences
• Tyler Cowen on on-health-care-price-transparency-from-the-comments
• Kruggers on the-oil-squeeze-tightens , who-are-you-gonna-believe-trump-or-your-lying-eyes
• Jonathan Chait on trump-language-policing
• Fabio Bertoni on kash-patels-implausible-lawsuit-against-the-atlantic
• John Cassidy on the-lessons-from-jerome-powells-defiance-of-donald-trump
• Andrew Weissman on indictment-southern-poverty-law-center-splc
• Barbara MzQuade on james-comey-second-indictment-8647-trump 
• renew economy on us-predicts-stunning-80-gw-increase-in-big-solar-wind-and-battery-storage-in-next-year-despite-trump
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-louisiana-callais-gerrymandering-alito-voting-rights-act
• Richard Hasen on scotus-voting-rights-section-two-ruling-history-worst-century
• noahpinion on scoring-the-jensen-dwarkesh-debate
• Jeet Heer on trump-whcd-shooting-assassination-attempt
• Dahlia Lithwick on supreme-court-analysis-democracy-fail-alito-kagan
• Lisa Needham on blanche-comey-ballroom
• Ken White on the-comey-threat-indictment-is-a-grave-embarrassment-to-the-united-states-department-of-justice-and-the-rule-of-law
• Stepheen Robinson on trump-cognitive-state

Europe

• David Ignatious on russia-putin-threat-europe-nato-raises-questions-about-trump Thanks Nick
• Lauren Cassidy on chernobyl-at-40-secret-stasi-files-reveal-extent-of-soviet-misinformation-campaign-over-nuclear-disaster
• David Marples on forty-years-after-the-chernobyl-disaster-its-legacy-still-resonates
• Jim Smith on chernobyls-wildlife-the-real-story-isnt-the-presence-of-radiation-its-the-absence-of-humans
• Paul Whitely on UK prime-ministers-have-always-faced-political-scandals-so-why-cant-they-weather-them-now
• Lisa Martin on fickle-iceland-geopolitical-pickle

Asia

• Barno Nnouri and Inderjeet Parda on middle-east-conflict-looks-increasingly-like-a-war-nobody-can-win
• Aniello Iannone on taiwan-s-deeper-vulnerability-politics-home
• Gemima Ware on how-israels-history-has-shaped-the-way-it-wages-war
• Lowell Bastista on china-remaking-south-china-sea-return-island-building 
• Manny Maung on myanmar-s-authoritarian-creep 
• Grace Stanhope on japan-charting-new-course-development-looking-wrong-direction
• Gokcay Baibi on could-the-strait-of-malacca-be-the-next-global-flashpoint
• Isaac Chotiner on donald-trumps-lose-lose-negotiations-with-iran
• Javed Noorani and Lynee O'Donnell on afghanistan-surrendering-its-mineral-wealth-its-future
• Micheel Cunningham on beijing-intensifies-diplomatic-isolation-taiwan-s-president
• Khang Vu on south-korea-no-longer-holds-cards-against-north
• home and away on special-edition-on-iran-going-straight-on-the-strait
• Danny Citrinowicz on how-war-saved-iranian-regime 
• Richard Nephew on let-iran-defeat-itself
• Rafeef Ziadah on gaza-six-months-of-ceasefire-have-left-the-territory-in-rubble-and-little-vision-for-the-future-of-its-people

Wonk

• Brad De Long on not-my-john-hicks-lecture-john-hicks-the-apostate ,a-comment-on-noah-smiths-the-moderately-easy-problem-of-conciousness
• wonk watch on utopia-and-the-problem-of-steering-blind Thanks Nick
• anecdotal value on when-i-hear-viewpoint-diversity thanks Nick
• 80000 hours on how-scary-is-claude-mythos Thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on a-30mn-lesson-in-patience
• noahpinion on why-shoplifting-is-bad , the-moderately-easy-problem-of-consciousness 
• the conversable economist on world-war-trade
• Kai Riemer and Sandra Peter on meta-and-microsoft-have-joined-the-tech-layoff-tsunami-but-is-ai-really-to-blame
• Mark the Graph on weekly-energy-price-update
• Miyon Joseph on misdiagnosis-middle-power-cooperation
• James Cross on the-uae-is-leaving-the-opec-oil-cartel-what-could-that-mean-for-oil-prices
• Kristian Ulrichsrn on uaes-opec-exit-has-been-long-in-the-works-and-may-mark-the-beginning-of-a-gulf-realignment
• Alex Tabarrok on capitalism-and-modernity
• Mauro Lubrano on when-technology-becomes-target-political-violence
• Abraham Numbogu and Kaveh Madani on the-race-to-mine-critical-minerals-for-ai-and-clean-energy-is-creating-sacrifice-zones-that-harm-water-and-health-of-worlds-poor
• uneasy money on ayek-and-dworkin-on-the-meaning-of-discretion

General

• Krystal Tolley on mozambique-sky-island-expeditions-found-4-new-species-of-chameleon-already-at-risk-from-forest-loss
• Tyler Cowen on more-on-sir-thomas-gresham-from-my-email
• Mark Connick on how-2-men-smashed-through-a-marathon-barrier-long-thought-unbreakable
• Doug Muir on occasional-paper-blue-angels-devil-hands
• the pursuit of liberalism on is bob dylan a liberal Thanks Tyler

Climate

• skeptical science on climatetrunk-the-really-big-picture-in-four-pictures , how-strong-can-hurricanes-get , new_research
• Ray Wills and Peter Newman on is-oil-king-again-chinas-surging-cleantech-exports-show-the-opposite-is-true
• Bryan Walsh on climate-change-coal-solar-renewable-power
• Alexandra Siqueira on the-cradle-of-earths-rich-ocean-life-was-a-massive-coral-reef-system-20-million-years-ago

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• cdc-update
  
• blogging-and-writing-style
  
• hes-a-music-educator-evaluating-k-12-music-education-systems-and-he-wants-someone-to-look-at-his-measurements-and-statistics
  
• why-isnt-it-possible-to-play-a-fun-and-serious-game-of-poker-not-for-money
  
• should-french-pollsters-be-using-mrp
  
• hey-try-out-the-rmet-the-reading-the-mind-in-the-eyes-test
  
• what-bothered-me-with-the-conversation-of-jay-bhattacharya-and-emily-oster
  
• survey-statistics-exploded-logit
  
• taking-one-more-swing-at-the-foolish-nudgelords-who-associate-the-soviet-union-with-environmental-protection 
  
• show-me-science 
  
• study retracted

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• april reads
• Rob Henerson on mr-nobody-from-nowhere Thanks Nick
• Tyler Cowen on that-was-then-this-is-now-58
• Martin Kear on dignity-and-resolve-francesca-albaneses-when-the-world-sleeps-humanises-palestinian-lives

Vox Wonk

• when-privacy-protects-excludes-hidden-costs-data-restrictions-digital-lending 
  
• challenging-inequalities-how-we-got-stuck-and-where-we-go-next
  
• using-global-shocks-laboratory-study-executive-pay 
  
• why-liquidity-evaporates-when-it-most-needed
  
• geopolitical-oil-price-shocks-why-these-shocks-hit-harder 
  
• when-public-money-multiplies-and-when-it-does-not-guide-catalytic-effect-blended
  
• reconfiguring-europe-fractured-global-economy-florence-report
  

A rate rise is inevitable

 The March CPI was released yesterday.

Here are a few reaction:

• Greg Jericho
• Stella Huangfu
• Mark the Graph

I reject Jericho's argument and am fully in agreement with both Huangfu and Mark the Graph.

Why you ask?

I am old enough to remember the oil shocks of the 1970s and 80s. ( so is John Quiggin). I reemember the second and third round effects that embedded inflation that took years ( a decade?) to reduce and then it took a nasty recession.

I favour rates rising to 4.5%.

An education lesson for Chris Kenny

 Chris Kenny is allegedly a journalist on sky after dark. He is frequently wrong such as on global warming but sometimes gets it right like on Aboriginal rights.

He believes Jimmy Kimmel was alleging that Trump be asssisnated when he made his comedic statement .

Let us bring into context a few things which somehoow he missed.

• first of all Kimmel made his joke on late thursday night US ttime. The trumps and then their apolif gists did not react until monsay. huh. Are they that thick it takes that long to digest the joke.
• second Trump is almost 80 and very fat and eats very badly. She is 56 remembering he has traded in his earlier two models.  Even trying to reduce this by drugs is quite problematic
• We know courtesy of the Wolf suit she has a different apartment in New york to her husband where she sleeps.
• The couple are famous for not showing any affection towards each other.
• lastly Kimmel is well known for making comedic statements on his late night show

How could a 'jopurnalist' not know any of this indeed why did kenny take ssol ong to be affronted by kimmel?

Mark the Graph on fire

 If you are not reading Mark the Graph then you are missing out on something special.

I'h here to help.

• stagflation
  
• stagflation-lead-in-australias-saddle  
• inflation-causes-diagnosis-and-cures  
  

I wil warn you they are lenghty articles but are well worth reading.

The Liberals are mad

 The Liberal party is preferencing one nation in the Farrer by-election. Let that just sink in. They are preferencing a party who is an existential thrreat to them but more importantly to the National party.

IF their prefwrences mean one nation wins then they give one nation another boost, a very big one at that, to their eelectoral stocks. Every national party in parliament will be vulnerable. (I have already given my thoughts on why Littleproud resigned). If one nation contines where they are in the polls then the Nationals wil be decimated and perhaps not even recognised as a party after the next election. The very coaltion is at risk. The Liberal regional seats are of course at high risk as well. At present this is their strength.

Further if one nation wins then they are more likely to keep it than an independent if a swing occurs against the government in the next election as is likely.

Just a minor detail for the Farrer by-election if you support much tighter immigration which the Liberals, Nationals and one nation do then where do all the small buisnesses in the electorate find employees?

another minor detail. I have met David Farley. he is a smart guy. I cannot seeing him deferring to a moroan like Hanson for very long!

The Models A tribute to James Valentine

 James Valentine died last week.He took his own life voluntary as he had cancer which was inoperable.

He was a brilliant on radio where he could make a very enjoyable radio program out of nothing. My favourite was with HG Nelson where they explored building a canal from the Northern Territory to Sydney as Subs could get here quicker!!  

Here it is

He was a very good saxophone player and had a program on ABC jazz which wasn't bad.

Here is my only favourite Models song which is a pseudo-live version of hold on

 James Reund who is the singer committed suidide a long time ago. his family are stil lwondering why sjowing why and how suicide is a very selfich act!

Around the Traps 24/4/26

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Mark the Graph on net-permanent-and-long-term-arrivals ,what-australia-owes-itself , stagflation
• Peter Layton on the-new-national-defence-strategy-feels-written-for-a-bygone-era-and-ignores-the-elephant-in-the-room
• Warwick Smith on the-rbas-policy-deliberately-creates-unemployment-so-why-do-we-treat-the-jobless-so-badly
• Libby Calloway and Lloyd Walker on the-coalition-wants-ndis-reform-to-focus-on-3-things-heres-what-this-would-mean-for-users-and-the-budget
• Anja Bless and Milena Bojovic on overheated-cows-flooded-highways-and-now-a-fuel-crisis-why-australias-food-system-is-in-big-trouble
• Kevin Morrison on is-there-really-untold-oil-wealth-in-queenslands-taroom-trough-heres-why-scepticism-is-warranted
• Mark the Ballot on a-deep-dive-on-one-nation-polling
• Chris Evans on tinkering-with-the-capital-gains-tax-discount-isnt-enough-heres-why-it-needs-to-go
• Gwenda Tavan on multicultural-australia-was-built-under-a-liberal-prime-minister-the-current-party-should-take-heed
• Charlie Caruso and Richard Neuman on amending-australia-s-export-gas-regime-does-not-undermine-gas-fuel-negotiations
• Helen Dickinson and Ebe Ganon-Davey on tightened-eligibility-and-cuts-to-plans-what-the-ndis-changes-mean-for-participants
• Samantha Hepburn on foreign-companies-are-making-billions-off-australias-gas-its-time-that-changed
• Jeannie Paterson on how-court-cases-against-woolworths-and-coles-could-change-the-future-of-shopping-in-australia
• Jennifer Parker on maritime-gaps-remain-australia-s-defence
• Greg Jericho on cgt-capital-gains-tax-negative-gearing-changes-housing-labor-budget-2026
• Mary Watson-Burton on values-migration-test-has-definition-problem

OZ Climate

• Rusty Langdon on more-than-60-of-home-battery-installations-inspected-in-australia-are-substandard
• Peter Newman and Ray Wills on this-fuel-crisis-could-last-for-a-while-its-time-for-a-new-approach-to-fuel-use-end-it
• Robert Walker on green-trade-partnerships-will-make-or-break-australia-s-renewable-superpower
• Ellen Ryan-Cotton and Christine Schlesinger on should-this-plant-be-declared-one-of-the-worst-weeds-in-australia
• Graham Readfearn on channel-seven-7news-spotlight-clean-energy-investigation-ignores-fundamental-facts
• Lisa Cox on governments-failed-to-deliver-160m-of-river-improvements-including-for-now-parched-nsw-wetlands-report-finds
• Chris Wallace on the-carbon-tax-debate-damaged-julia-gillards-leadership-and-good-climate-policy-for-years-to-come
• Chris Wright on states-have-driven-climate-action-until-now-its-time-for-the-australian-government-to-step-up
• stunning-growth-of-battery-storage-puts-it-at-centre-of-global-energy-security-needs-for-cars-and-for-grids 
  
• state-to-step-in-if-regulator-and-network-fail-to-remove-ev-charging-handbrakes-and-sort-out-tariffs
  
• wild-attack-on-batteries-and-renewables-by-7s-spotlight-program-falls-over-at-the-first-fact-check
  
• canadian-developer-lands-grid-approval-for-mammoth-new-england-solar-battery-hybrid-project
  
• the-scores-are-going-off-the-charts-iran-conflict-boosts-support-for-renewables-and-energy-independence
  
• wind-will-require-further-work-bowen-says-renewables-target-still-achievable-but-not-inevitable
  
• whyalla-steelworks-needs-long-term-viability-it-wont-find-it-with-gas
  
• just-give-us-a-shot-networks-say-community-batteries-can-right-the-wrongs-of-grid-gold-plating
  
• modelling-shows-network-tariff-reforms-will-slash-some-power-bills-and-blow-up-others-can-the-aemc-strike-a-balance
  
• hybridisation-of-wind-solar-and-battery-storage-is-no-longer-optional-its-the-new-baseline
  
• big-green-lies-are-the-rich-using-solar-to-steal-from-the-poor
  
• spotlight-has-fallen-well-short-7s-program-panned-again-this-time-on-false-turbine-allegations
  

Northern America

• institutional economics on for-whom-the-strait-tolls
• Kruggers on lies-damned-lies-and-economic-vibes , curing-us-health-care-part-i , the-vindication-of-bidenomics , kevin-warsh-is-trumps-sock-puppet
• Ana Garriga and Christina Bodea on how-trumps-repeated-efforts-to-fire-federal-reserve-chair-powell-harm-the-economy-and-make-battling-inflation-harder
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-is-a-natural-resource-curse-crowding-out-us-renewable-energy
• Tyler Cowen on on-the-impact-of-trumps-tariffs
• Andrew Prokop on israel-democratic-party-criticism-arms-sales
• Fred Kaplan on trump-defense-budget-iran-war-hegseth-republicans , iran-trump-war-strait-of-hormuz-peace-talks-madman-theory
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on supreme-court-leak-john-roberts-the-worst
• Quinta Jurecic on doj-weaponization-working-group
• Amy Sorkin on j-d-vances-bumpy-ride
• noahpinion on no-america-is-not-in-a-stealth-manufacturing-boom
• Craig Keating on allies-are-done-waiting-america-grow
• Jessica Levinson on kash-patel-atlantic-lawsuit-actual-malice
• Christian Paz on virginia-redistricting-gerrymander-democrats-gop-middecade-referendum-fair-election-midterm-2026
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-hencely-fluor-terrorism-preemption
• Febrian Ruddyard on when-power-hesitates-world-recalibrates
• Fintan O'Toole on the-right-amount-of-crazy
• Jeet Heer on kash-patel-drinking-report-trump
• Joyce Siette and Paul Strutt on we-cant-know-if-donald-trump-has-dementia-even-if-he-did-it-wouldnt-excuse-his-actions
• Liz Dye on trump-doj-will-avenge-the-kkk

Europe

• Phillips O'Brien on ukraine-trump-us-oil-russia
• Lorinc Redei on how-orban-defeated-himself
• Menzie Chinn on how-badly-is-the-russian-economy-doing
• Catherine Wilson on hungary-bets-europe-ukraine-may-benefit-result
• Romain Faithi on how-the-war-in-iran-has-brought-european-countries-closer-together-without-trump
• Kate Cantrall and Jessica Gildersleeve on chernobyl-at-40-the-lies-the-loss-and-why-we-cant-let-go
• David Marples on forty-years-after-the-chernobyl-disaster-its-legacy-still-resonates
• Chris Dillow on the-burdens-of-office

Asia

• Marika Sosnowksi on israel-and-lebanon-have-a-ceasefire-but-global-attention-shouldnt-move-on-this-isnt-a-tidy-end-to-the-war 
• Meighen McCrae on gallipoli-has-4-lessons-for-the-strait-of-hormuz-crisis
• Damien Kingsbury on the-myanmar-civil-war-is-at-stalemate-but-anti-junta-forces-may-be-gaining-the-upper-hand
• Tyler Cowen on the-chinese-current-account-imbalances
• Justin Bergman on both-the-us-and-iran-are-firing-on-commercial-ships-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-are-both-sides-acting-lawfully
• Gabriella Bernal on north-korea-s-evolving-diplomatic-logic
• Jessica Genauer and Benedict Moleta on 3-reasons-the-war-between-the-us-israel-and-iran-is-headed-for-a-frozen-conflict
• Adam Serwer on define-jewish-state-israel
• Menzie Chinn on the-oil-shock-in-east-asia
• Renaud Foucart on the-strait-of-hormuz-shows-how-everything-is-now-about-leverage
• Zack Beauchamp on netanyahu-reelection-2026-trump-orban-magyar
• Sussan Glasser on trump-and-the-iran-deal-that-wasnt
• Seong-Hyon Lee on why-china-now-embraces-nuclear-north-korea
• Dita Liliansa on toll-malacca-strait-puts-indonesia-s-own-legal-foundations-risk
• home and away on strait-jacket

Wonk

• the second best world on the-men-are-not-okay Thanks Nick
• Dan Davies on whats-mine-is-mine-and-also-debatable Thanks Nick
• Martin Wolf on milton-friedman-donald-trump-assault-on-democracy-corporations Thanks Nick
• fresh economic thinking on finding-the-money-can-a-film-about-MMT-change-our-economic-debates Thanks Nick
• Mark the Graph on weekly-energy-price-update
• Tim Harford on how-can-we-tell-good-ai-from-bad
• the conversable economist on ai-and-future-growth , industrial-policy-a-policy-menu
• Tamara May on audhd-means-being-autistic-and-having-adhd-and-it-can-look-very-different-to-a-single-diagnosis
• Menzie Chinn on aizenman-desbordes-and-saadaoui-quantifying-trade-destruction
• Kruggers on the-harm-from-hormuz
• noahpinion on updated-thoughts-on-industrial-policy , is-chinas-soft-power-really-rising-or-is-the-US-just -crumbling
• Rushala Saha on don-t-write-brics-just-yet
• Michael Schmitt on just-war-theory-iran-war
• Mark Beeson on finlands-president-alexander-stubb-has-some-ideas-to-save-the-international-order-and-ourselves
• Alex Tabarrok on the-luddites-were-the-first-to-attack-ai
• Makaela Fehlhaber on after-greenpeace-vs-norway-what-must-states-do-drilling
• Toby Walsh on why-the-worlds-banks-are-so-worried-about-anthropics-latest-ai-model
• Elizabeth Samet on are-america-and-china-condemned-repeat-history-samet

General

• Lisa Herzog on global-science-equity-towards-solutions
• Steve Prabu and James Miller-Jones on black-hole-jets-dance-in-the-wind-from-a-massive-companion-star
• Doug Muir on occasional-paper-inconstant-moon
• Alexandra Aikhenvald on what-is-a-lingua-franca-a-brief-history-from-the-crusades-to-today
• Stephen Gallagher on scientists-finally-know-how-old-the-twelve-apostles-are-and-theyre-much-younger-than-anyone-thought
• Jesse Kearse on seismic-whiplash-new-research-shows-what-happens-when-earthquakes-stop-suddenly

Climate

• Brian Oliver and Peter Irga on when-oil-refineries-burn-heres-what-happens-to-your-lungs-and-heart
• Omid Zabihi and Minoo Naebe on heres-how-using-more-recycled-plastic-could-ease-the-pain-of-oil-shocks
• Estelle Razanatsoa et al on madagascars-ancient-baobabs-store-700-years-of-climate-secrets-what-they-reveal
• skeptical science on cuba-solar-lifeline , new_research
• Wesley morgan and Ben Newell on the-end-of-oil-as-fuel-shocks-cascade-53-nations-gather-to-plan-a-fossil-fuel-phaseout
• Kate Quigley and Elise Dehont on coral-reefs-are-secretly-connected-across-vast-oceans-and-thats-crucial-for-their-survival
• Chris Taylor et al on our-efforts-to-halt-global-forest-loss-arent-working-new-research
• Tyler Cowen on the-empirically-inscrutable-climate-economy-relationship

Andrew Gelman ( mostly stats)

• in-ml-everyones-humpty-dumpty 
  
• making-your-research-free-may-cost-you
  
• eugene-wigner-and-the-moonies
  
• I have seen the future of science
• did-taylor-swift-kill-a-bunch-of-people
  
• survey-statistics-dcv-for-mrp
  
• postmodern-anti-science-attitudes
  
• fraud-and-the-false-optimism-of-ai-for-science
  
• if-the-authors-of-that-cdc-report-had-just-thrown-in-some-fake-citations-and-some-crazy-dietary-advice-the-boss-wouldve-approved-it-for-publication
  
• probability-theory-corner-my-favorite-birthday-problem-story
  
• three-things-i-forgot-to-say-today-at-the-national-academy-of-sciences-workshop-on-enhancing-scientific-integrity
  
• freakometrics on will technology saves us 
• statschat on green-and-full-of-terrors

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on that-was-then-this-is-not-now , that-was-then-this-is-now-57, what-ive-been-reading
• Aaron Gell on omer-bartov-israel-zionism-genocide
• Nicholas Boggs on fascinating-biography-life-recommendations

Vox Wonk

• olympic-opportunity-social-housing-policy-lessons-athens-2004-olympic-village 
  
• fiscal-institutions-matter-big-time-foreign-direct-investment-developing-economies 
  
• defence-spending-no-free-lunch
  
• improving-competitiveness-or-meeting-climate-targets-draghi-dilemma
  
• revisiting-labour-supply-trends-across-countries
  
• air-service-liberalisation-and-carbon-dioxide-emissions
  
• mobile-seniors-and-local-economic-development 
  
• central-bank-independence-update
  
• cost-effective-freshwater-biodiversity-impact-reporting-banks-evidence-pollution
  
• us-versus-them-how-political-propaganda-polarises-beliefs-without-providing-any-news 
  
• how-nation-was-born-lessons-four-centuries-brazilian-growth