A few things

 Israel

The UK and other european nations have announced sanctions on goods and services coming from illegal israeli settlements in the west bank. Why haven't we joined them? I also see the USA has issued a warning about this. 

I am now saying if you cannot recognise a palestinian state then you surely cannot recognise an Israeli state. Just remember the Israeli government has been stealing palestinian land since the nakba!

Superannuation

I am old enough to understand why Paul Keating introduced superannuation. It was because very few people made any effort to prepare for retirement. The only people who did were public servants and some white collar workers ( like me) whose companies had superannuation and quite wealthy people. This is why the OECD, World Bank and the IMF thought this was ground breaking which every country should copy.

Both one nation and the LNP had advocated in recent days that people should have access to their super money BEFORE retirement. Typically Joyce in a train wreck interview on 7.30 could not  answer basic questions on this like how much money would the average worker lose in retirement by doing this.

A few things. most people who go for a home loan can already access super if they have made voluntary deposits. My two boys did. It is not a lot of money. They both had large deposits to assist in getting loans.Thus allowing every person access to their supper would only have a limited effect. I see some people want this access to pay for rent. Surely it would help more in retirement than right at the moment.

Lastly people's behaviour toward super before Keating acted and during covid shows people make irrational choices. Superannuation is for retirement!

USA/Canada relations

Surely the biggest lessons from the 'trade war' between Canada and the USA is that the USA can no longer be trusted on anything. If they can do this to Canada then they will do it to anything. The USA has  lost all soft power and it will take a long time to regain it.

It is unbelievable how ignorant and incompetent people in the current administration are.

Russia/Ukraine

Talking about ignorance and incompetence Fred Kaplan is on the money.

There is nothing like being a negotiator without using any experts from the State department and accepting all of Putin's propaganda because you didn't prepare!

Gerard Henderson watch

 I am both bored and busy. Yeah I know that is contradictory but there you go.

Our old mate Gerry is at it again.

He claimed that Anthony Fauci and Steve Bannon did the same thing with congress yet only Bannon went to gaol. This is complete shite. Both people were served subpoenas by congress. Fauci turned up whereas Bannon refused to comply hence his arrest, conviction and gaoling. Our Gerry has a law degree so he knows that so why the crap? Also he said Trump was the victim of lawfare or words to that effect by the Biden DOJ. Hang on he was  indicted on his January 6 conduct in lieu of the attempted insurrection and of course the stealing of documents and obstruction of justice . Both indictments were many pages in length and highly specific in their charges. So again Gerry is having a lend of us.

He claims Ian Dunt is left wing. Our Gerry has produced no proof of this however dunt has written at least three books. If he is left wing then so is the economist magazine. They share the same philosophy!

He also claims David Speers wants people to call him Speersy on Insiders. Our Gerry has provided no evidence of this and i have never heard this at all on Insiders.

He also has a juvenile habit of calling people he clearly ddoes not like comrade. gosh I wonder why he does that?

Our Gerry is well over 80 and that must be the reason why he did not get the pun by Mark Kenny about counsel culture.Don't worry he still says Kenny said cancel. Our Gerry has a credlin problem although she admitted she was wrong but went on with her wortles rant about the census

He also does not like the minefield on radio national. Perhaps his clear declining cognitive powers has something to do with that.

He also never watches sky after dark. ( yes I know there is a name change but I like the name). They have soft interviews after soft interviews. They aslo get a lot of things wrong and indulge in misinformation.

Can you bear it!

A pot pouri of things

 Tobaccy

One nation has proposed a cut in tobacco excise of 75% and the LNP wants 80%. This will reduce the market share of illegal tobacco. Sorry I do not get it. Illegal tobacco will still be lower than legal tobacco. Why would any consumer then buy more expensive tobacco when they are not doing it now. how do consumers go from being unpatriotic to patriotic? It doesn't make sense to me. Even if you do not tax tobacco at all illegal tobacco is still much cheaper!! One should also realise illegal tobacco can still reduce their prices and make money.

'woke 'education.

According to the National party leader teaching boys to respect girls' is woke education. Apart from being unable to define 'woke' when it is bad to teach boys to respect girls. Parents should be doing this so this is reinforcement.

burning the flag

The LNP want to make this a crime. Surely this is interfering with a persons freedom of speech. Flags are not monuments. If I want to burn the flag for any reason then I should be able to. I find it ironic that the very people who want to make this a crime are saying regulating social media is against free speech!

Germany

The far right almost won a state election.It is interesting that the racist attack on immigrants is a world wide phenoma.however these burkes want to support russia against ukraine amongst other wacky policies.That well-known fascist elon musk supports them. ( he is the right kind of immigrant, white)

Around the Traps 4/9/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps .

Ausssie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Mark the Graph on who-fights-inflation, potential-speed-limit-for-economy
• Fei Gao on why-some-us-republicans-want-to-punish-australia-over-new-charges-for-tech-giants
• Mick Ryan on US-army-lost-ukraine-would-australia-do-better
• Alan Gamlen on australia-has-spent-25-years-stopping-the-boats-but-thats-not-the-same-as-controlling-migration
• Diane Krael on richard-denniss-is-calling-for-a-gas-export-tax-but-an-effective-royalty-system-would-be-a-better-option
• Danielle Thielke and Kelly Jauzems on heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-teens-and-sexual-choking
• Ross Gittins on do-our-pollies-really-want-a-more-affordable-housing-market-we-re-about-to-find-out
• Michelle Grattan on did-albaneses-language-against-one-nation-cross-a-line-or-is-pauline-hanson-just-playing-victim-politics
• Mathew Crocker on australias-government-now-has-1-trillion-in-debt-four-charts-on-how-we-got-here-and-its-cost
• Greg Jericho on australia-economy-gdp-growth-rba-expected-raise-interest-rates-again 
• John Hawkins and Peter Bartos on australias-economy-grows-by-2-1-but-peoples-living-standards-arent-keeping-pace

OZ Climate

• pressure-mounts-to-make-balcony-solar-legal-in-australia-as-it-goes-on-sale-in-the-uk 
  
• fresh-hope-as-huge-hybrid-wind-and-battery-project-reaches-financial-close-in-the-sunshine-state
  
• changing-tack-on-victorias-energy-transition-will-throw-electricity-savings-into-reverse-experts-warn
  
• rooftop-solar-record-tumbles-as-battery-rebate-drives-1-gw-of-new-installs-over-just-three-months
  
• australia-wrote-the-worlds-best-rooftop-pv-rules-we-must-do-the-same-for-plug-in-solar-and-fast
  
• state-owned-big-battery-slapped-with-1-2-million-fine-for-pushing-up-power-prices-and-profit-maximising
  
• why-do-we-bother-australia-cant-compete-with-chinas-green-transition-but-it-can-leverage-its-success
  
• one-nation-is-channeling-regional-anger-about-renewables-that-doesnt-mean-it-understands-it
  
• Alison Reeve on australia-datacentre-battle-highlights-hidden-truth-renewables-gas-electricity-solar
• Emily Simpson et al on despite-years-of-rain-blue-mountains-forests-still-havent-recovered-from-the-black-summer-megafires
• Graham Readfearn on bom-forecasts-strongest-el-nino-on-record-as-research-points-to-alarming-climate-change-influence
• Mingming Cheng and Peta Ashworth on australia-needs-renewable-energy-fast-but-building-it-is-only-half-the-battle

Northern America

• Brad De Long on heading-for-a-large-rapid-fall-in-interest-rates , the-white-collar-canaries-in-the-AI-job-loss-coalmine-are-wide-awake-feeding-and-chirping--to-themselves, the-fed-chairman-who-would-prefer-not-to-say, crosspost-justin-wolfers-did-trumps-achieve-trumps-goals
• Peter York on trump-style-dictator-autocrats-design Thanks Nick
• institutional economics on in-defence-of-drucken-slop , investment-intentions-tariffs-and-plague 
• Kruggers on oligarchy-and-the-great-evasion , from-kakistocracy-to-cheatistocracy, the-plot-to-steal-venezuelas-oil, the-hits-keep-coming. imperialist-delusions-and-the-price-of-fuel, ingots-we-no-longer-trust
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-mail-voting-trump-major-questions-talwan, supreme-court-ballroom-standing-national-park-service-trump
• Menzie Chinn on seven-graphs-for-the-financial-system, the-cyclically-adjusted-budget-balance
• Fred Kaplan on pete-hegseth-generals-worried-reserves-military
• John Cassidy on how-much-is-the-iran-war-costing-americans
• Nancy Youseff et al on driscoll-hegseth-military-resignation
• Tom Nicholls on hegseth-driscoll
• Jordan Ascher on presumption-regularity-erosion-challenges-executive-action
• Rodger Shanahan on trump-chose-to-go-it-alone-against-iran-now-he-s-learning-the-value-of-friends
• Zack Beauchamp on trump-mail-voting-supreme-court-whistleblower 
• the conversable economics on us-energy-source-to-end-use, gross-and-net-us-investment
• home and away on secretary-of-war
• Harry Litman on the-other-side-of-dojs-corruption
• Jeet Heer on pete-hegseth-troll-army, fox-news-maria-bartiromo-lawsuits

Europe

• Musa Al-Ghabbi on jason-arday-and-me Thanks Nick
• Jack Grove on i-was-reported-police-over-arday-case-i-was-just-doing-my-job Thanks Nick 
• Nicole Townsend on landmines-and-remnants-of-war-pose-a-serious-threat-and-more-needs-to-be-done-to-solve-it
• Sascha-Dominic Townsend on europe-is-under-increased-russian-attack-are-we-seeing-an-undeclared-war

Asia

• Dibyesh Anand on nepal-floods-chinas-strict-control-of-tibet-makes-it-harder-to-prepare-for-himalayan-disasters
• Mark the Graph on lets-not-mention-war
• Saima Afzal on india-can-redraw-the-border-with-myanmar-but-who-controls-it
• Justin Hastings on tracking-north-korean-dark-ship
• Juan Caceres and Shannon Brincat on why-israel-and-turkey-are-trading-insults-and-jockeying-for-power-in-neighbouring-syria
• Shadi Saif on pakistan-s-september-showdown
• Matan Cohen and Julian Borger on aid-workers-gaza-killed-in-israel-airstrike-investigation

Wonk

• Amerigo Buongiorno on anne-frank Thanks Nick
• Sam Kriss on everyone-loves-hitler Thanks Nick
• Carolyn Sissoko and Mina Ishizu on Preventing_financial_ruin Thanks Nick
• Mark the Graph on weekly-energy-update , what-real-bond-crisis-looks-like
• Brad De Long on crosspost-emily-bender-stochastic-parrots 
• Karryl Trajano and Brendan Lyut on no-mark-zuckerberg-the-future-is-not-yet-for-everyone
• Brad De Long on crosspost-david-albouy-jonathan-parker- john-steinsson, reading-lewis-carroll-1895-what-the-tortoise-said-to-achilles
• Sahara Hoff on the-us-has-struck-a-deal-to-control-venezuelas-oil-reserves-it-probably-wont-help-bring-down-fuel-prices
• Mainly Macro on is-the-fall-of-starmer-a-warning-for-the-democratic-party
• noahpinion on roundup-87-technology-bad
• Tyler Cowen on who-values-democracy
• the concis on the-coalition-of-the-doing Thanks Brad
• James Paterson on the-extremist-risk-behind-smart-glasses 
• Al Hynes on stop-declaring-world-war-III 
• Chris Dillow on buying-politicians
• Caitlin Dewey on gloria-steinem-death

General

• Stephen Pimentel on battling-all-the-way-home Thanks Nick
• open mind on boycott-everything-about-google

Climate

• open mind on i-dont-trust-the-usa-wildfire-data-from-our-world-in-data 
• Joshua Partlow on el-nino-effects 
• stoat on the-data-heat-island-effect
• Wesley Morgan on pacific-islands-forum-palau-summit-climate-change-greatest-threat
• Michael Mann on nepal-flooding-climate-disaster
• Tirthankar Ghosh and Levin Tielidz on the-collapse-of-a-mountainside-triggered-nepals-devastating-floods-as-the-regions-mountains-heat-up-it-wont-be-the-last
• Real Climate on koonins-temperature-of-the-lol-stratosphere
• renew economy on bloody-dangerous-territory-world-on-track-to-exceed-1-5c-warming
• Jacqueline Peel and Wesley Morgan on a-landmark-un-report-says-the-world-will-overshoot-the-1-5-c-climate-target-what-happens-now
• skeptical science on new_research
• essays concerning on the-five-stages-of-climate-denial-a-telegraph-case-study
• Mandy Freund on a-record-shattering-el-nino-is-almost-here-heres-what-that-means-for-the-worlds-weather 
• Jan McDonald et al on as-global-heating-heads-to-1-8c-is-it-time-to-consider-the-voldemort-of-climate-policy

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• why-did-anova-fall-out-of-fashion
  
• coyote-vs-acme-also-for-free-my-take-on-the-odyssey 
  
• fits-and-starts 
  
• shocked
  
• survey-statistics-logit-shift-and-raking
  
• yale-med-school-prof-tells-his-postdocs-work-extra-hours-at-my-command-or-youre-no-better-than-the-guy-who-charges-me-by-the-hour-to-cut-my-lawn 
  
• metascience-corner-what-can-we-learn-from-12-million-empirical-research-results 
  
• confirmation-bias-in-software-testing-walnutpie-edition 
  
• updike-and-statistical-writing-more-on-honesty-and-precision
  
• update-on-i-dont-understand-this-paper-claiming-election-fraud-in-2024-in-pennsylvania
  
• Kaiser Fung on note-to-nyt-simple-math-aint-simple

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• summertime-reading
  
• Andrew Gelman on updikes-kaleidoscope-telling-a-life-through-a-set-of-unconnected-stories
• Thomas Jeffries on the-threat-of-biological-warfare-is-real-a-new-book-describes-the-potential-devastation
• noahpinion on why-you-wont-get-a-flying-car

Vox Wonk

• closing-gap-borrowing-costs-emerging-market-firms 
  
• financial-engineering-no-substitute-interest-rates-lessons-turkiye 
  
• beyond-exposure-predicting-ai-adoption-based-comparative-advantage 
  
• how-currency-hedging-moves-exchange-rates 
  
• europes-federated-democratic-learning-state 
  
• global-pension-asset-allocations-and-debt-markets
  
• european-banks-and-private-markets-mapping-linkages
  
• new-evidence-strong-slow-portfolio-responses-equity-premium-changes 
  
• implications-of-climate-change-for-monetary-policy
  

A very short explainer on why inflation is bad.

 HERE is an article outlining 10 reasons why but it misses the main point!

The main reason why inflation is bad is because it confuses consumers.

The capitalist system is based on relative prices. If the  price of Lindemans wines go up then I buy Henscke for example.

If inflation rises substantially then absolute prices will confuse consumers and suddenly relative prices are hard to detect. Yeah I know it is a simplified example but that's economics.

In the end the RBA wants the capitalist system to work effectively and it can't if inflation rises to high levels.

More climate denialist lying.

 Read this Real Climate article and weep.

and here are some articles on the implications of the Nepal disaster.

• nepal-flooding-climate-disaster 
  
• the-collapse-of-a-mountainside-triggered-nepals-devastating-floods-as-the-regions-mountains-heat-up-it-wont-be-the-last
  

To take a theological view original sin at work!

more on the battery

 Our battery ( 17kw)  gets full every month bar June and July. There are some days in both autumn and spring ( and a month before and after) when the battery is nil in the morning. This is mostly due to both showers and cooking.

Appliances such as ovens,stoves, heaters, microwaves,irons and air conditioning do use a wee bit of power and our hot water system needs a fair bit of power to recharge twice a day. others such as fridges,dishwashers, washing machines ddo not.

The savings will be less as charges to use the grid or just being part of it have increased a lot.

update:  the battery is 90% at 9.30!

A short not on EVs. We do not have one but I see a lot of ignorance on the subject. you would only have to recharge the vehicle once a week not daily if you basically use it for the city. If you buy the right car it can become a battery as well boosting your battery at home.

Australian stuff

 Interest rates

I'm afraid I agree with John Hawkins. Interest rates have to rise. alas prices rose across the board last week in the CPI release.No central bank can afford to gamble by saying we wil wait until next month to see what occurs. they have to be conservative thus have to raise rates.Just remember the trimmed mean is well above the target level.

One Nation.

They won a state by-election in WA.This was highly unusual. It was a safe seat. The WA government is popular yet they lost the seat. A by-election always promotes a protest vote but this was enormous. This was after Hanson had no idea of the difference between net and permanent migration. In fact they probably have no idea that the NOM includes Australians coming back home!

Sex

I am getting old but a 16 year old girl dying because she was being strangled while having sex leaves  me gobsmacked. When I was 'growing up' it was 'erotic asphyxiation' and yes people died from it. I am at a loss why anyone would attempt to do anything that could kill them simply to gain an orgasm. Grow up people.

Whoopsy

GST

The productivity commission released a report on GST 'carveups'

WA is clearly the wealthiest state yet it gets a share of GSt that is way over the top.

See Shane Wright and Robert Breunig.  Grrrr

Around the Traps 28/8/26

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Michelle Grattan on israeli-ambassador-suggests-former-defence-chief-binskin-return-to-israel-to-pursue-frankcom-decision
• Jennifer Lacy-Nichols on australias-lobbying-rules-ignore-most-lobbyists-its-time-for-an-overhaul
• Bernard Doherty on who-are-the-brethren-and-what-do-they-believe-in 
• Laura Edwards et al on how-well-do-covid-antivirals-actually-work-not-as-well-as-we-thought
• Graham Wild on airport-runway-collisions-and-near-misses-are-happening-more-frequently-22-years-of-data-show
• Steve Georgakis on aussie-players-are-smashing-transfer-records-does-this-benefit-or-harm-australian-soccer
• Mark the Graph on qe-and-measured-natural-rate
• Melissa Davey on private-health-insurance-rebate-65-and-over 
• Greg Jericho on ai-boom-noisy-energy-hungry-datacentres-construction-economy 
• Shane Wright on this-dodgy-60b-deal-reeks-now-it-s-being-buried-in-pure-bulldust 
• Matteo Vergani on having-heard-mountains-of-evidence-the-antisemitism-royal-commission-now-faces-a-huge-challenge 
• John Hawkins on inflation-eases-less-than-expected-making-another-interest-rate-hike-more-likely
• Chris Murphy on the-pm-has-ruled-out-changing-was-gst-deal-but-theres-another-option-to-consider

OZ Climate

• not-a-bunch-of-yokels-armidale-mayor-lays-down-no-water-no-rez-demands-as-region-turns-dry
  
• like-a-fire-drill-for-the-grid-rooftop-solar-systems-to-be-switched-off-to-test-backstop-system
  
• solar-sharer-has-become-the-solar-shocker-with-the-costliest-of-retail-offers
  
• new-renewables-and-batteries-improve-grid-reliability-outlook-but-more-needs-to-get-built-on-time-aemo-says
  
• a-trojan-horse-for-communism-more-big-batteries-head-for-review-as-familiar-long-distance-objectors-pile-in-again
  
• linking-electricity-and-safeguards-could-make-wind-projects-viable-and-oblige-gentailers-to-actually-do-something
  
• bit-of-a-bloodbath-big-batteries-feel-the-pinch-of-coal-plant-extensions-and-household-battery-boom
  
• batteries-are-quickly-turning-gas-into-a-costly-sometimes-fuel-for-electricity-so-why-build-more
  
• intimidation-and-bullying-as-some-anti-wind-farmers-stage-a-fightback-others-are-counting-the-cost
  
• the-dirty-word-missing-from-the-debate-over-how-to-power-the-data-centre-boom
  
• cheaper-home-batteries-is-not-a-story-of-risk-ignored-it-is-one-of-risk-understood
  
• the-nems-first-solar-battery-hybrid-is-sending-power-to-the-grid-at-10pm-and-helping-reshape-the-energy-game
  
• after-anthony-albaneses-fold-on-data-centres-where-might-chris-bowen-be-curtailed-next
  
• paint-the-bloody-things-green-big-battery-developers-are-facing-local-push-back-are-they-ready
• Kevin Trenberth on how-will-this-years-record-breaking-el-nino-affect-nz-and-the-world-5-things-to-know
• Zoe Bainbridge and Rebecca Bartley on we-finally-have-some-encouraging-news-on-great-barrier-reef-water-quality
• Petra Stock on solar-sharer-energy-scheme-australia-three-free-hours-power-daily-more-expensive
• Ehsan Noroozinejad on australias-backdown-on-data-centres-allows-them-to-use-energy-from-coal-and-gas-heres-what-that-means

Northern America

• institutional economics on scott-bessent-and-financial-repression
• Kruggers on jared-bernstein-on-debt , debt-and-tax-cuts , the-moose-that-roared , losing-the-iran-war-the-economic , der-untergang , biden-derangement-syndrome
• Bryan Walsh on america-murder-rate-lowest-70-years 
• David Frum on why-us-canada-trade-talks-fell-apart
• noahpinion on are-we-watching-the-us-go-bankrupt , what-if-our-biggest-problems-arent-economic
• Tyler Cowen on more-evidence-on-the-effects-of-recent-tariffs
• Michael Dreeben on when-the-president-does-it 
• Hugh White on american-revolution-2-0-how-trump-has-changed-the-us-and-why-it-was-powerless-to-stop-him , trump-didn-t-cause-america-s-retreat-from-asia-he-s-the-symptom
• new deal democrat on the-latest-on-the-inflationary-expansion-of-2026-a-k-a-guns-butter-2 
• Cameron Peters on us-canada-trade-war-tariffs-trump-carney
• John Cassidy on the-humbling-of-scott-bessent 
• Bruce Schwartz et al on regular-special-grand-jury-powers
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-lisa-cook-trump-federal-reserve
• Mark the Graph on us-bonds-crisis
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-the-u-s-household-income-cycle-and-the-motio-rule 
• Eric Van Rhythoven on mark-carneys-defiance-canada-shows-the-world-how-to-respond-to-donald-trumps-threats
• Sarah Herschander on dolly-parton-philanthropy 
• Mark Danner on trumps-constitutional-dictatorship-regime-change-haberman-swan
• Bill McKibben on adam-hamilton-and-taking-back-religion-from-the-right 
• noahpinion on the-death-of-market-street 
• the conversable economist on is-us-government-debt-getting-riskier, gao-one-more-warning-on-us-federal-debt
• Lisa Needham on supreme-court-mail-voting-ballroom
• Harry Litman on the-other-side-of-dojs-corruption
• Brad De Long on nvidia-earnings-chart-of-the-day , rosspost-justin-wolfers-good-news-there-is-already-a-us/canada-trade-deal, the-us-federal-fiscal-flow-deficit-problem
• Jeet Heer on natalie-harp-trump-relationship-cult
• Adam Keith and Nina Moraitou-Politizi on rubio-wants-help-dismantling-icc

Europe

• Tyler Cowen on has-the-european-turnaround-finally-arrived , green-shoots-for-the-uk
• Timothy Ryback on nationalist-german-jews-max-naumann-hitler
• mainly macro on media-regulation-is-partly-about-protecting-individuals
• Doug Muir on why-ceuta-is-european-and-what-came-of-it

Asia

• Adam Farquhar on why-gaza-peace-deals-keep-unravelling
• Shiori Shakuto on what-sanae-takaichis-popularity-among-women-says-about-gender-equality-in-japan
• Mark Beeson on the-uncomfortable-success-of-china-s-climate-autocracy 
• Robert Kagan on iran-middle-east-power 
• Seon-Hyon Lee on trump-s-57-nukes-and-the-hollowing-out-of-north-korean-denuclearisation
• Martin Kear on israel-is-cementing-its-control-over-the-west-bank-and-east-jerusalem-while-the-world-is-distracted
• Jason Wilson on fake-thinktank-israel-ai-propaganda 
• Taha Rezaei and Mark Maslin on nepal-tibet-floods-when-disaster-strikes-before-communities-recover-from-previous-climate-extremes-crisis-escalates 
• Ligin Joseph on a-super-el-nino-could-make-indias-monsoon-drier-yet-more-dangerous
• Ray Wills and Peter Newman on the-deadly-disease-blinding-the-west-to-who-is-winning-the-energy-transition
• Levan Tielidze on tsunami-of-dirt-what-caused-nepals-deadly-glacial-flood

Wonk

• Sam Kriss on the-carrion-eaters Thanks Nick
• Nils Gilman on the-goods-we-agreed-to-call-inputs Thanks Nick
• Joshua Gans on its-time-for-some-game-theory Thanks Nick
• Dean Ashendon on what-michael-young-actually-said Thanks Nick
• Rob Nicholls on 29-us-states-are-suing-meta-what-might-it-mean-for-the-rest-of-the-world
• Mark the Graph on yes-i-use-ai , weekly-energy-update
• Tim Harford on explain-it-to-me-like-im-ten 
• the conversable economist on even-sand-isnt-infinite , secular-stagnation-and-wealth-inequality-antecedents-and-lessons
• Brad De Long on the-white-collar-canaries-in-the-AI-job-loss-coal-mine
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-when-does-monetary-tightening-deflate-a-stock-market-bubble 
• Fan Yang on an-ai-job-boom-heres-what-the-tedious-temporary-work-in-data-labelling-is-actually-like
• Alex Tabarrok on democracy-and-caeserism

General

• Toby Davidson on australian-poetry-classics-francis-webb-the-20th-centurys-most-unjustly-neglected-poet-is-our-best-kept-literary-secret
• Helen Adam on beyond-harry-potter-five-books-you-can-enjoy-together-as-a-whole-family

Climate

• Phillip Oldfield and William Craft on were-building-a-new-york-sized-city-every-month-thats-worrying-for-our-climate 
• Damian Carrington on worlds-oceans-hit-hottest-temperature-on-record-in-august 
• Frisa Ginting and Dian Fiantis on borneo-forest-fires-spike-again-why-el-nino-isnt-the-sole-culprit
• David Appell on 4%-of-oregon-has-burned-this-year-so-far 
• skeptical science on ClimateAdam-emissions-are-flatlining-why-is-co2-rising-record-speed, fact-brief-windco2
• Bethany Dawson et al on climate-change-may-halve-omega-3-fatty-acids-in-fish-and-the-organisms-they-eat
• Nikolai Drahos on the-next-phase-of-global-methane-policy
• Benji Jones on coral-reef-climate-change-restoration-palau

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• this-is-one-of-the-worst-scientific-papers-ive-ever-seen
  
• failing-upward-norwegian-style
  
• to-the-three-people-who-sent-me-chatbot-emails-today
  
• head-to-head-on-125-st-the-jamaican-beef-patty-battle
  
• journal-of-statistics-and-data-science-in-sports
  
• head-to-head-on-125-st-the-jamaican-beef-patty-battle 
  
• journal-of-statistics-and-data-science-in-sports
  
• bayesian-workflow-free-pdf 
  
• survey-statistics-more-on-synthmargins-and-bayes-raking
  
• do
  
• professor authored 258 papers in 2026
• the-incredible-disappearing-ssrn-page
  
• what-stories-should-we-tell-about-science-now
  
• Kaiser Fung on if-you-must-label-people , what-can-one-believe

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• Toril Moi on the-adulteress-wife Thanks Nick
• Tyler Cowen on that-was-then-this-is-now

Vox Wonk

• how-early-academic-rank-shapes-high-school-choices-and-admissions 
  
• small-and-stuck-why-european-firms-cant-scale 
  
• why-more-information-can-make-macroeconomic-expectations-less-accurate-global 
  
• why-europe-needs-eurobonds 
  
• digitalisation-and-credit-markets-evidence-einvoicing 
  
• when-trade-sanctions-increase-targets-trade 
  
• competition-or-collusion-entry-decisions-swedish-pharmaceutical-market 
  
• anatomy-supervisory-failure 
  
• inflation-rate-fell-many-workers-pay-cheques-did-not-keep 
  
• inflation-reduction-acts-regional-incentives-promoted-green-investment-did-not-create
  

Dolly Parton

 I should have written this yesterday.

I loathe country and western music so I was no fan of hers. She had a poor voice and a very limited vocal range. This was never more apparent than on her most famous song . Whenever she attempted to sing it she killed the song but Whitney Houston  sang it she hit it out of the park!!  ( it made her $20m) I should add her voice limitations never were a problem as she was a country and western singer/songwriter

I remembering reading somewhere a long time ago she was a sex symbol. Big breasts ( which she heavily 'advertised') do not a sex symbol make. She had a poor body, terrible hairstyles and was frankly unattractive. This did not matter and neither should it have.

Okay so much for the negatives. Now for her large positives.

She was one hell of a businesswoman. She left around 600 million. She was one of 11 children in a family so poor that when she was born her parents paid the doctor with food as they had no money. She thus never forgot her roots.

She was also a philanthropist of high distinction and had no problem in giving money to causes she valued from her fortune. Making more money was not of top of her list.

She wrote a lot of songs but for the love of it never to get more money. If that came then she was blessed if not she still liked the song.

She also married her high school sweetheart and was still married to him when he died.

It is unusual for a person to die and everyone has a good word about them. That is the greatest tribute you could give her!

The wars in Ukraine and Iran

 Ukraine learnt very quickly not to use patriot missiles against drones. The US military clearly has not in the middle east. It has wasted many patriot and tomahawk missiles. Why is this? My guess is two reasons.

1. Hegeth sacking various top military leaders
2. The US  political disdain for Ukraine. They simply do not believe there is anything to learn from that war.

It is immediately apparent that the problem is the political leadership at the Defence department. Hesgeth has been an out and out failure. He clearly does not have a strategic brain in his body. It was his job to advise Trump of the possible problems and he did not.

He attempted a shock and awe effort to beat Iran and it backfired badly. Iran is clearly the big country in the middle east. US allies nol onger are relying on the US for protection they are turning to Ukraine who successfully use drones against drones. They also do not want any escalation as they believe Iran could destroy a large part of their industry.

Another thing I thin a lot of people are missing is that both Russia and China would be egging Iran on (not that it would take much egging) to take a hard line thereby using a lot more missiles. 

It is hard to see any settlement until after the mid-terms. This is merely a jimmy carter redux.

It is hard to see any peace in Ukraine simply because Putin cannot afford one politically. It is victory or death. Yet he cannot win but he  lives on in hope. Think about this. Ukraine produce a lot more drones than Russia and use them much more strategically. They also recognise Putin's bluster now for for what it is.

Can I add I hope Ukraine do not fall for the Hitler gambit. He had the UK on its knees and then changed the bombing to london. Russia is deliberately targeting Ukraine's population. Ukraine should not attempt this but continue its present destruction of russian industry particularly oil. It is paying off bigtime.

Immigration

 It appears a number of people want immigration to be curtailed. The problem is not the figure some people want but HOW to get there.

Andrew Bragg came up with a figure for net overseas migration of  180,000. He did not not say how he would get to that figure but said it would have a 'modest' effect on the university sector.

Pauline Hanson has confirmed that one nation would reduce it to 130,000 but that back packers and the like needed for agriculture would be exempt.

Cutting immigration down to the above levels would hit :

• back packers and the like who work in agriculture
• skilled labour for housing, manufacturing etc
• Family reunions
• Universities
• The federal budget

Now if you exempt agriculture from immigration cuts it therefore means you are going to cut larger in other areas.

You will have noticed various spokesmen (yeah they are mostly men) for employers associations saying quite loudly they need skilled immigrants for businesses as that labour simply is not avaalible locally.

Family reunions would probably be the first target as it has less economic impact and affects less people who vote!

Universities would be hit bigtime as foreign students is a large revenue earner for them. There would be need for at least some, if not significant, boost to universities funding from the federal government.

The federal budget would be hit by several billion dollars.

Thus what do we have. Wages would increase as highly skilled immigrants are reduced. you also need large spending cuts and/or large increases in taxation or a blow-out in the deficit.

Until we hear HOW immigration is to be cut to levels below 200,000 then I would suggest the people have no idea of what they are talking about!

The Swans imbroglio

 It seems all week we have been hammered by the disgrace of the 6 swan players who went out drinking until the early hours of sunday morning ( after their match) and invited some women back to their hotel. One of the women was sexually touched.

Herein lies the problem of the modern secular society. You can have sex with anyone you want provided there is consent. therein lies the problem. What is consent.? It is a very hard question for society to answer. Is yes yes? Is no really yes? Do you have to verbalise it? Does it apply to marriage and if so what is the point of marriage?

One final point. why do people complain about getting burnt when they are so close to the fire. In this case why would any woman go back to the hotel with the men at such an hour?

In this case if the players were not drunk they were still 'liquored up'. I would have to ask why and again why did they invite the women back to the hotel? My guess is it was not to have a cup of tea. I believe most have girlfriends so were they wanting to cheat on them?

Now since I believe only a husband and wife should have sex I simply do not understand what is going on here. Secular society is all over the place on this.

Also playing professional sport and drinking after the game has a bad history. Again I do not understand the need to get drunk into the wee hours after a game.

Society has a problem here but als no answer

the origins of Covid

 Mehdi Hasan does a great interview with a pro-lableak person and a pro-wuhan markets person.

It is a really interesting view and very informative as well as being civilised!!

Around the Traps 21/8/26

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Nicholas Gruen on academia-from-inefficient-effectiveness-to-efficient-ineffectiveness 
• Caroline Riches on how-we-can-avoid-interest-rate-rises-and-boost-our-savings-instead Thanks Nick
• Peter Martin on home-truths-about-tax-with-a-nod-to-tom-petty Thanks Nick
• Robert Breunig on a-costly-mistake-new-review-finds-giving-wa-billions-in-extra-gst-was-unfair-to-other-states
• Mona Nikkidehaghani on with-ndis-changes-set-to-pass-heres-who-bears-the-cost-of-making-it-sustainable
• Antony Green on why-australia-doesnt-have-novelty-candidates-like-count-binface
• Patrick Commins on why-rightwing-critics-are-wrong-to-say-the-australian-super-system-is-broken
• Rick Sarre on will-other-states-follow-nsw-into-the-national-gun-buy-back-scheme-and-will-it-make-any-difference
• Ross Gittins on it-s-my-job-to-raise-a-topic-which-neither-side-of-politics-will-mention
• Kate Griffiths on long-awaited-gambling-reform-bill-is-an-improvement-but-does-not-go-nearly-far-enough-to-reduce-harm
• Luca Ittimani and Jonathan Barrett on how-high-will-rents-really-rise-labor-property-tax-reforms 
• Greg Jericho on australias-drop-in-real-wages-is-a-disaster-but-the-profits-of-major-corporations-are-doing-just-fine 
• Sassan Thorp and Scott Donald on when-can-you-access-your-super-early-a-finance-and-a-legal-expert-explain 
• Becky Freeman et al on one-nation-wants-to-cut-the-tobacco-tax-would-that-curb-the-illicit-cigarette-market
• Heather Robinson on how-to-sell-a-genocide-has-been-removed-from-a-library-near-bondi-but-libraries-represent-freedom-of-thought
• Katharina Belt on fertiliser-prices-and-shortages-are-hamstringing-our-farmers-but-we-have-other-options
• Aruna Sathanapathy on one-year-isnt-enough-why-the-government-needs-to-keep-up-the-pace-of-economic-reform
• Antony Green on one-nation-and-its-elected-mps
• Geoffrey Robertson on zomi-frankcom-killing-death-israel-idf

OZ climate

• its-a-commercial-system-and-it-has-a-customer-sodium-ion-battery-sale-hailed-as-a-first-for-australia
  
• australias-biggest-battery-project-slashes-footprint-by-20-pct-as-it-mulls-multi-gigawatt-hour-extension
  
• we-want-more-batteries-nsw-confirms-state-rebate-will-slash-costs-by-up-to-40-pct-on-systems-up-to-30-mwh
  
• were-trying-to-win-a-drag-race-with-the-handbrake-on-here-are-three-reforms-to-deliver-the-energy-transition 
  
• no-ray-hadley-the-collapse-of-zen-does-not-mean-renewables-have-failed-nor-that-more-coal-will-be-burned
  
• the-2-5-billion-wind-project-getting-ready-for-take-off-but-what-about-the-crashed-cessna
  
• its-literally-life-changing-for-us-the-drought-stricken-farmers-looking-to-wind-and-solar-to-secure-their-future
  
• australias-biggest-energy-consumers-are-being-lined-up-to-break-the-wind-drought-in-its-most-coal-dependent-state
  
• what-federal-and-state-rebate-changes-mean-for-ci-solar-and-battery-storage-in-8-charts
  
• significant-shift-batteries-are-capping-electricity-prices-and-helping-to-bust-the-energy-market-cartel
  
• they-are-not-locked-in-anti-renewables-meeting-targets-immigrant-workers-amid-litany-of-wild-claims
  
• do-wind-turbines-make-droughts-worse-a-new-study-says-they-do-not
• prices-have-doubled-farmers-turn-to-wind-and-solar-to-make-fertiliser-and-change-conversation-about-renewables
  
• gas-is-getting-left-behind-as-solar-charghttps://reneweconomy.com.au/gas-is-getting-left-behind-as-solar-charged-batteries-step-in-to-the-breach/ed-batteries-step-in-to-the-breach
  
• Nick Toscano on renewables-are-slashing-power-prices-but-energy-chiefs-fear-it-may-not-last

Northern America

• Brad De Long on the-fed-chair-who-whispers
• Kruggers on vanessa-williamson-on-taxes-and-democracy , demography-deportations-and-the-trump-stall , the-misery-will-continue-until-morale-improves , a-new-level-of-trumpian-evil ,what-are-bond-markets-telling-us, the-case-against-bond-market-panic , scott-bessent-fails-to-gaslight-the-market
• Daniel Egbar on fauci-texts
• David Frum on trump-business-dark-money , democratic-primaries-left-dsa-trump
• Fred Kaplan on trump-south-korea-north-korea-kim-jong-un-iran-war
• Tom Nicholls on trump-iran-korea 
• John Cassidy on selling-fast-access-to-truth-social-posts-a-trump-grift-too-far 
• the conversable economist on welcoming-first-year-students-with-a-wake-up-call , trashed
• Astead Herndon on midterms-actually-electability-question-donald-trump-republicans 
• Marie-Rose Sheinerman on trump-name-on-everything
•  David Cole on close-calls-us-supreme-court-david-cole
• Rebecca Hamilton on trump-administrations-state-power-big-picture
• Jeet Heer on israel-lobby-clifton-lustick-middle-east-us-foreign-policy, trump-uss-lincoln-crisis
• Dylan Scott on data-centers-2026-election-texas-ohio-michigan

Europe

• Irani Skubii on russia-is-cutting-off-ukraines-grain-exports-again-threatening-a-critical-harvest-and-global-food-security
• Anna Nemtsova on russia-ukraine-drone-war-protest
• Joshua Hill on solar-stands-up-during-european-heatwaves-as-nuclear-and-fossil-fuels-stumble 
• mainly macro on signs-of-recovery-in-comparative-uk-economic-growth 
• Speranta Dimutru on ceuta-what-vitoria-would-tell-about-migration
• open mind on englands-hottest-summer
• Simon Schuster on ukraine-moscow-airports-ai-drones

Asia

• institutional economics on japan-as-poster-child-for-market-monetarism
• Donald Rothwell on the-hormuz-toll-iran-wants-and-trump-might-let-slide
• noahpinion on the-end-of-an-era-for-chinas-economy 
• Lynne O'Donnell on the-fragmentation-of-resistance-in-afghanistan 
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-undervaluation-of-asian-currencies
• Amin Saikal on the-taliban-has-brought-afghanistan-close-to-collapse-but-resistance-is-growing
• David Zhang on asia-is-rearming-fast-but-counting-the-wrong-kind-of-military-power 
• Virginie Grelczyk on north-korea-grows-stronger-as-south-korea-reckons-with-fading-us-support
• Ved Shinde on valley-of-flowers-the-dicey-dance-of-development-in-the-himalayas
• Shannon Bosch on can-the-israeli-military-be-trusted-to-investigate-itself-evidence-shows-genuine-accountability-is-rare
• Srijan Shukla on china-risk-returns-in-american-bond-markets

Wonk

• Mark the Graph on weekly-energy-update , privatisation-of-government-businesses-services-and-financing
• noahpinion on 23-low-regret-recommendations-for-AI-policy , economists-should-be-worried-about-birthrates
• Brad De Long on again-more-of-a-refining-crunch-than-a-crude-oil-crunch , the-global-bond-selloff-since-2020 , can-we-sell-equity-financing-of-the-data-centre-buildout-at-a-debt-price , bubble-watching-this-is-what-happens-in-a-time-of-distress
• Henry Yep on how-maps-harden-territorial-claims
• Ananya Rupanagunta on cuba-healthcare-collapse-energy-crisis
• the conversable economist on syntax-often-breaks-down-just-at-the-point-where-a-new-or-significant-meaning-is-beginning-to-break-out
• Chris Dillow on the-politics-of-cher 
• home and away on plane-spoken

General

• Sean Illing on you-cant-have-homer-nietzsche-and-jesus Thanks Nick
• the conversable economist on orwell-it-is-possible-to-be-a-normal-decent-person-and-yet-be-fully-alive
• Ceri Shipton et al on 4-000-year-old-rock-painting-in-indonesia-offers-clues-to-one-of-humanitys-greatest-migrations
• Sven Buder on galactic-archaeologists-find-stars-in-the-milky-way-came-from-another-galaxy-12-billion-years-ago
• Alex Tabarrok on why-arent-modernist-bridges-awful

Climate

• David Appell on climate-denial-killing-still-more-people
• Moyhu on july-global-surface-templs-up-0045-from-june
• Angus Dalton on polar-wildfires-scientists-warn-of-grass-spreading-across-parts-of-the-antarctic 
• Dennis Campbell on extreme-heat-more-dangerous-for-people-60-and-over-than-previously-thought
• Kirsten Zander and Stephen Garnett on extreme-heat-is-altering-when-where-and-how-we-travel-new-research
• skeptical science on raw-data-wrong-answers , new_research

Andrew Gelman (mostly stats)

• inbox-zero-bloglag-365
  
• how-can-america-be-so-miserable-when-its-so-rich
  
• he-wants-to-teach-frequentist-methods-to-engineering-students-with-a-strong-bayesian-background
  
• jamaican-me-crazy-yet-again
  
• modern-day-political-analysis-excellent-demonstrations-of-statistical-workflow-from-elliott-morris-nate-silver-and-eli-mckown-dawson
  
• survey-statistics-modeling-complex-contingency-tables
  
• update-on-a-regression-discontinuity-dispute-some-asynchronous-collaboration 
  
• wh 
  
• why-i-am-so-against-volunteering-in-academia-ecology-edition 
  
• we-couldnt-reproduce-their-findings-and-realized-that-it-was-all-driven-by-weird-data-from-uzbekistan
  
• my-answer-is-no 
  
• here-are-the-talks-from-stancon-2026
  
• the conversable economist on the-generalizability-problem-the-natural-field-experiments-answer
• Kaiser Fung on when-life-calls-for-causal-analysis

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews) 

• Tyler Cowen on that-was-then-this-is-now , what-ive-been-reading
• Joshua Black on paul-kellys-exceptional-history-charts-the-decline-and-fall-of-the-coalition-but-leaves-questions-unanswered
• econjeff on book-felony-review-by-randy-barnett
• 
  

Vox Wonk

• nine-centuries-cultural-change-and-productivity-ideas 
  
• macrofinance-meets-ai-evaluating-alignment-between-llms-and-economists 
  
• firms-slice-global-production-protect-their-knowhow 
  
• comparison-labour-force-participation-trends-euro-area-and-us 
  
• industrial-policy-complementary-markets-lessons-indias-4g-rollout 
  
• how-regulatory-risk-and-expropriation-threats-are-affecting-berlins-housing-market 
  
• europes-productivity-more-dynamic-aggregate-statistics-suggest 
  
• when-statistics-lie-using-satellite-data-track-russias-wartime-economy 
  
• anatomy-censorship-and-propaganda-what-russias-wikipedia-clone-reveals-about 
  
• ais-gains-are-large-and-rising-unevenly-shared