Monday, 19 July 2021

when can we get back to normal?

 No-one likes lockdowns so the question is at what point will we get to when Governments say we are back to normal?

One popular notion is herd immunity. Get to 80% of the WHOLE population vaccinated and we are there.

Two problems.

This is based on a model. It might be correct but equally it might be wrong!

Even at 80% there is still 20% of the population that are not vaccinated and therefore susceptible to covid. The  major problem here is it is the States who have responsibility for hospitals. Even at 20% of the population (and remember surveys tend to say it is around 75%) the hospital system could easily be overrun and staff severely over-worked leading to poor outcomes.

Thus you cannot say you start to get to normality when all people have the choice. If too many people are not vaccinated the hospital system will be overwhelmed. an anecdote will illustrate the problem. Before covid the UK had a few thousand waiting on elective surgery. now it is  over a few 100,000.

I dread what would have occurred had covid crowded out everything else when I had my heart attack. ( My next door neighbour had a very similar mild heart attack some three weeks after me.)

Thus this decision is much more problematic than appears to be.


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