Will there be war in the Middle East?

In short I doubt it but do not discount it.

Let us go through all the relevant pots on what is going on thus far

• It was Trump who broke the agreement various countries had with Iran DESPITE Iran always sticking with its side of the agreement
• Trump now wants a new agreement. Why would Iran agree. It has one at present and Trump has shown he cannot be trusted. Some deal maker!
• Saudi Arabia has a very poor record on security. They invaded Yemen on an excuse and to this day have not taken the country despite the poor arms and weapons by people opposing them
• They have bought billions in systems to protect themselves. The systems are fine HOWEVER the are operated by Saudis who are quite incompetent hence a successful attack on a very large refinery. It is of course a pure coincidence US troops will be in Saudi Arabia. Perhaps the Systems will now be manned by competent personnel??
• Iran was never going to accept what the USA had done to it. It has now done the perfect crime so to speak. although most agree Iran probably did the strike attempting to prove it is very difficult. Iran does have deniability on this.
• Whilst some portray Trump as a warmonger he is in fact quite the opposite. He wants to get out of foreign ventures if for any reasons then because of the cost.
• Iran knows the USA knows the cost of a war with Iran. Iran calls in all its proxies and thus the price of oil goes through the roof just in time for the next Presidential election.
• They also know the political cost of creating a war in the Middle East for Trump.

If we put all this together it is unlikely war will eventuate although the precedent of WW1 and poor diplomatic competency increases the odds. Trump maladroit and incoherent foreign policy could also exacerbate this as well. 

Let us hope sanity prevails