A good time was had by all

 Last Friday was my 70th birthday ( so I am younger than john quiggin) and my wife decided we ( the family) should celebrate it at the Hunter Valley. we rented an airB&B at cessnock and it was great. In friday we had fantastic steaks from blayney and drunk it down with a 2008 toer shiraz and another wine I cannot remember from 2019.

I am thinking I really do not want to celebrate 80!

Briar ridge is the winery to visit if you go to the Hunter Valley

Around the Traps 18/9/2026 70th Birthday Edition

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Peter Martin on early-access-to-super Thanks Nick
• James Button on the-way-we-word  Thanks Nick
• Carol Johnson on yes-its-the-economy-stupid-but-one-nation-is-outflanking-the-government-on-messaging-too
• Marian Sawer on the-coalition-wants-to-make-flag-burning-a-crime-its-a-revival-of-a-decades-old-battle
• Johanna Lim on data-centres-have-existed-for-decades-so-why-are-they-so-controversial-now
• Mark the Graph on seeing-australian-r-star-through-different-windows
• Thomas Corben and Esther Soulard on five-years-into-aukus-what-do-we-have-to-show-for-it-weve-measured-progress-on-three-key-metrics
• Michael Varden on unsustainable-or-manageable-we-dont-yet-know-how-data-centres-will-impact-australias-environment
• Ross Gittins on feeling-the-pinch-blame-the-pay-rise-you-didn-t-get
• Ly Tran on how-would-one-nations-immigration-plan-affect-the-labour-market-and-economy
• Josh Sunman on hansons-personal-attacks-and-offensive-comments-are-straight-out-of-the-populist-playbook-but-they-come-with-risks

OZ climate

• nationals-leader-asks-lnp-planning-minister-to-call-in-already-approved-wind-project-in-his-own-electorate 
  
• australias-most-powerful-battery-flexes-muscles-with-second-shock-absorber-test-and-biggest-every-charge
  
• six-steps-to-stop-the-data-centre-boom-from-sending-power-prices-through-the-roof
  
• the-financing-market-for-wind-and-solar-projects-is-nearly-dead-heres-how-to-turn-the-corner
  
• the-case-for-plug-in-solar-and-batteries-has-never-been-clearers-nd-renters-deserve-it
  
• Bill Hare on australia-must-double-down-to-meet-our-climate-targets-our-new-study-shows-how

Northern America

• institutional economics on a-users-guide-to-betting-against-scott-bessent
• Daniel Munoz on our-job-is-to-lie-cheat-and-steal-and-your-job-is-to-do-the-show Thanks Nick
• Dave Moulton on how-leftists-became-big-pharma-s-shock-troops Thanks Nick 
• Kruggers on henry-farrell-and-abe-newman-on-weaponized-interdependence, the-maga-plots-to-destroy-humanity, why-is-trump-still-boosting-ai, fear-strikes-out
• Andrew Prokop on ai-freakout-mainstream-openai-anthropic-humans
• noahpinion on get-the-middle-east-out-of-my-politics, the-anti-american-right
• angry bear on interactions-between-presidents-and-the-fed-what-happens 
• John Quiggin on the-us-is-not-a-serious-country 
• Anne Applebaum on maga-foreign-policy
• Dexter Filkins on jared-kushners-dollar-diplomacy
• Paul Rasmussen and Annette Kwan on who-checks-president-not-military
• Brad De Long on hyperscaler-debt-default-risk, hyperscaler-debt-default-risk-is-the-real-thing
• one first on what-we-learned-from-usps-v-california thanks Brad
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-trump-mail-ballots-usps-california 
• Richard Hasen on trump-supreme-court-2026-alito-despicable-dissent
• Tyler Cowen on callum-williams-on-cybersecurity-prices
• Menzie Chinn on cbo-on-iran-war-costs
• Stewart Prest on thanks-trump-why-canada-may-become-the-european-unions-first-ever-associate-member
• Caitlin Dewey on ed-sheeran-macklemore-israel-gaza-controversy 
• Tom Bartlett on measles-deaths-pennsylvania-outbreak-kennedy
• Fintan O'Toole on devils-in-america-roy-cohn-bird-goldmark
• Liz Dye on supreme-court-mail-voting-ruling
• home and away on 9/11-at-25

Europe

• Tim Harford on nudge-or-tax-at-last-some-data
• Tyler Cowen on uk-fact-of-the-day
• Deniz Torcu on how-germanys-far-right-afd-is-courting-the-voters-it-promises-to-deport
• Alexey Muraviev on why-strengthening-ties-with-the-global-south-was-a-top-priority-for-putins-recent-diplomacy-blitz
• Lisa Martin on putin-sweats-on-russia-s-parliamentary-vote-as-ukraine-invasion-drags-on
• mainly macro on racism-and-xenophobia-are-not-'legitimate-concerns'

Asia

• Shruti Pandalai on what-the-west-should-make-of-xi-s-return-to-delhi-for-the-brics
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-do-traditional-models-or-the-dominant-currency-paradigm-explain-chinas-export-behavior 
• Adam Simpson on myanmar-s-junta-finds-a-second-patron-in-moscow
• Gabriela Bernal on seoul-s-defence-pivot-to-europe
• Jessica Genauer on the-houthis-have-further-tightened-their-grip-on-the-red-sea-heres-what-it-could-mean-for-the-world
• Jeet Heer on netanyahu-haaretz-report-october-7

Wonk

• Claire Collier on we-already-know-what-a-world-without-work-looks-like Thanks Nick
• Lydia Khalil on 9-11-s-shrinking-shadow
• Kruggers on trade-peace-and-war
• Andrew Cullen on big-ai-wants-to-slow-down-ai-research-is-it-a-safety-pause-or-a-strategic-retreat
• Aarti Betigeri on brics-grits-its-teeth-through-a-new-delhi-breakthrough
• Alex Tabarrok on ai-redistribution-and-the-size-of-the-pie
• Dov Waxman on what-is-zionism-the-different-meanings-of-a-contested-term
• Cassandra Steer on the-us-says-it-has-launched-space-control-weapons-it-plays-into-the-hands-of-its-enemies
• Chris Dillow on marx-on-ai

General

• Terez Rose on ten-odd-facts-handel-messiah Thanks Nick
• Olaf Meynecke on weeping-whales-why-one-humpback-whale-mother-stayed-beside-her-dead-newborn

Climate

• ocean acidification on long-term-monitoring-of-coral-reef-fish-populations-under-increasing-ocean-temperature-and-acidification-stress
• Soutik Biswas on the himalayas are melting faster and the indian economy is at risk
• Kathiana Luk et al on climate-change-is-putting-the-squeeze-on-the-worlds-grapegrowers-new-research
• 
  

Andrew Gelman ( mostly stats)

• did-2012-mark-the-discovery-of-the-final-laws-of-nature-a-discontinuity-in-human-intellectual-history-the-sharpest-that-has-occurred-since-the-beginning-of-modern-science-in-the-17th-century 
  
• whats-happening-with-the-models-of-the-atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation
  
• this-is-modern-frequentist-statistics-using-fake-data-simulation-to-understand 
  
• protection-from-inappropriate-influence-is-a-hallmark-of-scientific-integrity-not-any-more
  
• survey-statistics-anova
  
• charting-the-agentic-garden-of-forking-paths
  
• its-satisfying-to-see-the-economics-profession-come-around-on-some-things-regression-discontinuity-analysis-and-so-called-risk-aversion
  
• Kaiser Fung on cosmetic-surgery

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Isaac Chotiner on anti-zionism-benjamin-moser-book-review
• Dennis Muller on bluster-and-betrayal-paul-barry-probes-how-steel-tycoon-sanjeev-gupta-hoodwinked-the-powerful
• 
  

vox wonk

• spilling-secrets-and-shrinking-chains-how-weak-laws-narrow-supply-networks 
  
• view-killing-productivity-allocative-cost-war-ukraine 
  
• price-elasticity-us-shale-oil-supply-insights-natural-experiment 
  
• some-questions-bank-england-review-should-ask 
  
• mission-possible-making-teenagers-read-newspapers 
  
• inside-automotive-supply-chain-empirical-evidence-italian-business-business-trade 
  
• workers-age-and-ai-adoption
  

Mark the Graph

 If you enjoy economics like I do theen Mark the Graph is essential reading and we have been lucky as he has been in sensational form lately.

If you haven't then read these"

• potential-speed-limit-for-economy 
  
• what-real-bond-crisis-looks-like 
  
• the-new-keynesian-synthesis-explained 
  
• the-australian-economy-right-now 
  
• r-star-as-international-price 
  
• seeing-australian-r-star-through-different-windows
  

We are very lucky to having writing so much!!

one Nation's immigration 'policy'

 One nation released their immigration policy yesterday. It was a joke.

Let us go back to what I wrote about not long ago.

It appears ( this is guesswork as we only have a press release. no costings, no press conference no nuttin).

They love back packers as they help the agricultural sector so no reduction there.

They sat they like skilled labour BUT only what they determine and no family is allowed into the country whilst they are working. No country imposes this so why would anyone wish to come to australia to work.

There are no family reunions. No surprises there.

There is a HUGE reduction in overseas students. We have no idea of what course this will involve. This would involve large decreases in revenue for Universities but there is no increase in government spending to offset this.

They do not even mention the effect their policy would have on the budget. Perhaps they do not understand!

Abul Rizvi makes the valid point of the HUGE increase in compliance costs this policy would cost. He would know as he was  previously the deputy secretary of the department!

I see a number of people have made the prediction of a recession if this policy was implemented. Joyce has said he won't take any advice from economists on this matter. I very much doubt he would understand their advice anyway and this showed one nation is going full anti-intellectualism now. It is policy made on vibes.

In essence this policy is a joke. It is not thought out at all.

Has One Nation gone too far

 I wrote previously about the disgraceful campaign one nation has exploded against Andrew Hastie.

They seem to think Ben Roberts-Smith , a person a judge found him guilty of war  crimes on the basis of probability but not beyond a reasonable doubt. He found Hastie a witness who had credibility whereas Roberts-Smith had little credibility. Thus One Nation is at odds with the judge of the case.

Also and this is very important. war crimes are against our national interest. In Afghanistan it set Afghanis against us and for the Taliban. If anyone thinks that was patriotic then they are a moron!

Now Hanson has had a go at Albos mother. She was on a disability pension and so was in social housing or housing commision as it is in NSW. If a  person on a disability pension is not entitled to be in social housing then who is. This is the best evidence that hanson is an idiot of the highest order.

Will all this mean that One Nation's vote goes downhill now? Viewing overseas then it is unlikely.

Around the Traps 11/9/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Kevin Bonham on the-flat-field-another-polls-are-wrong
• Antony Green on preference-flows-at-the-secret-harbour-by-election
• Mark the Graph on the-australian-economy-right-now, r-star-as-international-price
• Cameron Murray on upper-class-welfare-costs
• Lyndall Bryant and Amanda Bull on australia-has-a-housing-shortage-so-why-are-bathla-and-other-home-builders-collapsing
• Isabel Mecair et al on cutting-the-tobacco-excise-wont-stop-the-illegal-trade-this-is-how-other-countries-solved-the-problem
• Gabrielle Appleby on government-must-be-more-transparent-about-who-gets-community-grants-and-why
• Md Hossain and Shahbaz Mustaq on farmers-can-now-produce-more-of-their-own-energy-than-ever-but-will-they
• Beth Webster on reform-wasnt-meant-to-be-easy-heres-how-the-battles-for-medicare-and-child-support-defeated-vested-interests 
• Frank Bongiorno on paul-keatings-aukus-hostility-reflects-his-passion-for-hard-nosed-realism-over-subservience 
• Rob Nicholls on australians-may-soon-be-able-to-switch-off-social-media-algorithms-is-that-censorship
• Patrick Commins on the-rba-hoped-this-years-three-interest-rate-rises-would-tame-inflation
• Greg Jericho on why-the-horror-warnings-about-australias-collapsing-housing-market-are-absurd-and-very-much-in-bad-faith 
• Yuting Zhang on why-health-insurance-cuts-for-the-over-65s-wont-swamp-public-hospitals-after-all
• Michelle Grattan on chalmers-says-intergenerational-report-shows-super-puts-australia-head-of-the-pack-in-containing-pension-spending, its-taken-hansons-overreach-on-hastie-to-put-some-spine-into-liberals
• Therese Hopfenbeck on australias-reading-and-maths-results-are-at-an-all-time-low-but-theres-more-to-the-story
• Millie Muroi on early-access-to-super-benefits-one-group-you-re-probably-not-a-part-of-it

OZ Climate

• second-wave-of-big-batteries-will-eat-the-dinner-for-fossil-fuels-forcing-some-coal-generators-to-close
  
• climate-authoritys-misinformation-report-hit-a-nerve-at-news-corp-for-a-reason
  
• renewables-lobby-says-coal-generators-should-pay-carbon-price-to-stay-open-beyond-stated-closure-dates
  
• what-could-be-australias-biggest-battery-project-seeks-federal-and-state-planning-approvals
  
• outback-australia-has-desperate-need-for-rooftop-pv-and-batteries-to-cut-crippling-dependence-on-imported-diesel
  
• its-an-ideology-queensland-lnp-accused-of-deliberate-strategy-to-kill-large-scale-renewables 
  
• extraordinary-difference-report-finds-market-offers-consistently-beat-solar-sharer-on-bill-savings 
  
• retailers-are-taking-the-piss-why-cheaper-power-isnt-reaching-consumers
  
• anti-wind-group-sues-planning-minister-and-wind-project-owners-threatens-public-servants
  
• proposed-gas-network-revenue-reforms-leave-consumers-to-pay-for-investors-bad-bets
  
• all-200172-panels-in-place-as-one-of-australias-first-solar-battery-hybrids-hits-construction-milestone
  
• portable-battery-barrier-why-some-of-the-biggest-winners-of-solar-sharer-cant-plug-in-to-free-power
  
• Mingming Chen and Peta Ashworth on australia-needs-renewable-energy-fast-but-building-it-is-only-half-the-battle
• Donna Lu on peters-farm-is-on-flood-country-as-australias-sea-levels-rise-safe-land-is-vanishing-and-costs-are-huge
• Hamish McKenzie on did-the-government-back-down-on-its-gas-reservation-policy-no-most-changes-make-sense

Northern America

• Brad De Long on looking-askance-yet-again-at-muskworld, elon-musk-and-his-doge-and-dogecoin-adventure, the-fed-chairman-who-would-prefer-not-to-say, crosspost-dan-drezner-the-trump-administration-strategy-fail, crosspost-roy-edroso-tubby-hero-and-victim-of-9/11
• Ruth Marcus on how-donald-trump-outmaneuvers-the-supreme-court
• noahpinion on america-is-still-beating-china-in-the-AI-race
• John Quiggin on the-us-navy-loses-another-war
• Kruggers on weaponized-interdependence, neo-nazis-and-the-impotence-of-trumponomics, wheres-the-beef-coming-from, adding-injury-to-insult-canada-edition, bessent-and-the-bonds, the-long-decline-of-america
• Greg Barton on the-failure-to-stop-9-11-was-a-catastrophe-but-even-bigger-mistakes-were-made-in-its-aftermath
• Christian Paz on trump-maga-white-evangelical-christian-protestant-conservative-bonnie-kristian-politics-monster-caricature
• Ariana Aspuru and Noel King on data-center-backlash-republicans-texas-greg-abbott
• Caitlin Dewey on trump-trade-war-canada 
• Fred Kaplan on trump-russia-ukraine-jared-kushner-steve-witkoff, trump-iran-war-nuclear-weapons-republican-convention
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-brett-kavanaugh-missouri-gerrrymander-hoskins-glahn-onder
• Jeet Heer on corey-lewandowski-corruption-report,fox-news-maria-bartiromo-lawsuits
• Cameron Peters on trump-midterm-convention-dallas-trumpapalooza
• Nancy Yousef and jonathan Lemire on trump-iran-war-navy

Europe

• Deborah Cole on why-far-right-afd-state-victory-significant-german-politics-germany-explainer
• Matt Fitzpatrick on even-if-it-doesnt-form-government-the-far-right-afd-has-shaken-germanys-political-establishment-to-the-core
• Lisa Martin on europe-borrows-australia-s-asylum-script-outsourcing-rights
• mainly macro on understanding-long-term-interest-rates-over-the-austerity-period-and-beyond
• Chris Dillow on good-policies-bad-politics
• Marcus Colla on afd-the-far-right-earthquake-in-saxony-anhalt

Asia

• Amin Saikal on sanctions-and-bombs-wont-end-the-war-in-iran-trump-is-running-out-of-options-against-an-intractable-foe
• William Maley on 9-11-anniversary-democracy-was-not-doomed-to-fail-in-afghanistan-the-us-did-not-live-up-to-its-promises
• Robert Walker on thailand-s-semiconductor-plan-has-a-washington-problem
• Ruth Margalit on the-warning-benjamin-netanyahu-ignored
• David Sanderson on the-rebuilding-in-nepal-needs-to-start-now-this-is-what-worked-after-an-earthquake-a-decade-ago-and-what-to-avoid

Wonk

• institutional economics on official-reserve-asset-capital-flight
• Felix Martin on ai-agent-hack-tests-solvency-more-than-sentience Thanks Nick
• Christian Catalini et al on the economics of AI Thanks Nick
• Mark Neyer on large-language-models-are-evidence-against-the-fact-value-distinction Thanks Nick
• Michael Williams on jason-arday-and-me Thanks Nick
• Paul Graham on how universities should protect founders Thanks Nick
• Daan Silver on why-do-philosophers-think-that-they-know-everything Thanks Nick
• Mark the Graph on the-new-keynesian-synthesis-explained
• noahpinion on ai-keeps-stubbornly-refusing-to-take-our-jobs , liberalism-needs-a-new-philosophy-of-immigration
• Tyler Cowen on capital-gains-vs-wealth-taxes, the-allocative-cost-of-war
• Omer Bartov on where-hatred-lies-on-antisemitism-mark-mazower
• Ramon Spaaij et al on can-people-truly-walk-away-from-terrorism-inside-the-slow-work-of-rehabilitation

General

• Dave Barry on the-odyssey Thanks Nick

Climate

• skeptical science on fixing-worst-climate-plot
• Jed Rakoff on and-yet-it-warms-federal-judges-and-climate-change

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• update-on-u-s-governments-push-for-gold-standard-science 
  
• ok-heres-a-statistics-problem-for-you-directly-ripped-from-the-headlines 
  
• does-anyone-have-lower-jordan3-number-than-evans-boney 
  
• hey-heres-an-r-package-for-imputing-census-data-using-iterative-proportional-fitting-on-available-margins
  
• survey-statistics-pew-research-finds-no-easy-fix-for-bogus-respondents-in-online-opt-in-polls 
  
• living-on-the-edge-aggressive-mediocrity-at-the-summit-of-americas-intellectual-culture
  
• why-i-still-like-orwells-politics-and-the-english-language-essay-even-though-he-gets-some-of-the-linguistics-wrong
  
• when-journals-are-slow-to-implement-or-enforce-policies-to-manage-sloppy-majority-ai-authored-papers-reviewers-can-and-should-push-back
  
• belief-is-not-something-you-have-rather-its-a-relationship-between-thought-and-action
  
• why-i-dont-like-highest-posterior-density-hpd-intervals
  
• freakometrics on criminal records, vibe coding and the next silent cyber risk
• Kaiser Fung on conceptual-diagrams-that-look-like-dataviz, its-not-about-the-bias-per-se

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Christopher Owen on leo-strauss-islamic-philosophy-and-the-crisis-in-modernity Thanks Nick
• David Appell on tribe-by-sebastian-junger
• stoat on book-review-evolution-of-morality

Vox Wonk

• multinational-restructuring-friendshoring-and-home-country-activity 
  
• government-support-religion-strengthened-religiosity-and-divided-america 
  
• world-agricultural-prices-and-outbreak-civil-war
  
• monetary-policys-last-mile-problem-and-what-can-be-done-about-it 
  
• automatic-stabilisers-multi-country-issuance-stablecoins
  
• tariff-confusion 
  
• immigration-innovation-and-geography-growth-lessons-age-mass-migration 
  
• plus-ca-change-ai-and-future-economic-research-galileo-back-socrates 
  
• inflexibility-and-stalled-progress-american-women-labour-market 
  
• fools-gold-how-geopolitical-risk-taking-some-shine-us-dollar
  

Andrew Hastie

 One Nation does not like Andrew Hastie.

He and a lot of others testified against Ben Roberts Smith is his failed libel suit. The Judge remember found against Roberts-Smith because of the basis of profanities ( not beyond a reasonable doubt) he committed war crimes. Just remember we were trying to get the Afghani population behind the new government and allied forces. His behaviour and similar behaviour made this impossible.

Why do one nation put their trust in a man a judge found to be a war criminal and thus a liar. It does show their profound lack of judgement and it also shows how stupid and gullible they are! It goes further they allege Hastie is a traitor. This is unbelievable. The Traitor is the person who committed war crimes in our name!