Poll roundup

The inimitable Kevin Bonham does his usual poll roundup for which we are all grateful.

I might make a couple of points.

The ALP government is very timid and cautious. something Ross Gittins alludes to.

They are apparently getting blamed for inflation. This could only occur if they didn't make headlines about inflation when they gained office.

Jim Chalmers has essentially copied his old boss Wayne Swan. He has completely ignored the structural deficit. Has he done so he might have gotten more kudos concerning the budget and told of why he had to go softly softly because of recession fears and highlight how the Coalition made no attempt to cut the structural deficit.

Their attitude to gambling is troubling. Everyone wants something done but they seem to be afraid of the lobby re elections.

Their policy on renewables and the coaction's on nuclear power should be a certain winner but it isn't!

I could go on but you get my drift.

Jim Chalmers is right

 The economy has been hit hard by the RBA's action of raising interest rates.

We still have no idea of what they are doing. Do they believe they have to raise interest rates further and put Australia into recession to reduce inflation?  Just when did inflation which was a supply side shock, not unlike the 1970s oil s pice shock, turn into inflation bey excess demand?

Why is it all the market type factors have been falling but not so much the non-market factors.

Just where in the hell is the economy hot so to speak?

The RBA has been all over the place in attempting to explain its position. I di not think michelle Bullock should have been Governor. Lowe did not make his mistakes on his own and Bullock seems not to understand what occurred in the recession we had to have which was a direct result of RBA policy.

I do have sympathy for Chalmers. The previous government made no attempt at all at fiscal consolidation even when it was apparent the economy was in a rude stake. As I have argued previously it is very hard to attempt this once the RBA has raised rates and are still doing it. He has done some but is understandably wary of doing too much in case it creates a recession.

Raising rates has caused the economy to slow dramatically. The RBA now should know if they have done all the rate rises they need to or not. I think they have.

For all the speeches , press conferences etc their communication has been pretty poor.

what to make of AEMO's warning

 We are fortunate to have Alison Reeve of the Grattan Institute fame helps us understand what they are stating.

If I can make one obvious statement that is related. Rooftop solar or solar in general is incompatible with baseload power. Google solar duck curve!

The other thing is if no-one in private enterprise wants to go near coal fired power stations and they are vastly cheaper than nuclear power stations why would any sane person champion nuclear power station? Answer they wouldn't. It is all about culture wars. No-one is that stupid except they are shooting themselves in the foot because as Maggie Thatcher was wont to say there is no alternative ( to renewables).

Trump can't play a trick

 You know things are going badly when you plan a slam dunk election point and it blows up in your face.

Trump was ready to criticise Biden's plan of abandoning Afghanistan ( even though it was Trump's).

Biden was President and he okayed it so he he either the applause or the criticism. It was a disaster.

This was an issue that Trump should have hit out of the park.

It blew up in his face.

We can only assume his team di not know the correct rules when it wa planned and when they did they did not care.

The issue now is about Trump again showing no regard for deceased US soldiers. Who in the hell gives a thumbs up at Arlington? They then physically force a worker away who was just doing her job and then just for good measure insult her.

Not good for attracting independent voters or those who are wavering republican voters.

It also shows a campaign in disarray.

Allman Brothers

 This is duane allman Allman brothers stuff. What could have been if he had not died from his motorcycle accident.

Two live songs show their potential greatness in playing the blues.

First Mountain Jam

Next a blues classic, Stormy Monday

Around the Traps 30/8/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• institutional economics on in-defence-of-hoomers
• Rolf Gerritsen on nt-election-the-country-liberals-claim-a-landslide-victory-in-a-contest-decided-in-suburbia
• Emmanuel Josserand and Martijn Boersma on australians-now-have-the-right-to-disconnect-but-how-workplaces-react-will-be-crucial
• David Levinson et al on 50-cents-0-cents-1-question-how-much-can-fare-cuts-boost-public-transport-use
• Mark Beeson on the-aukus-submarine-deal-has-been-exposed-as-a-monumental-folly-is-it-time-to-abandon-ship
• Sean Turnell on hostage-diplomacy-fresh-ideas-end-modern-blight
• John Quiggin on gina-rineharts-latest-grab-bag-of-opinions-is-more-proof-billionaires-are-no-smarter-than-the-rest-of-us , the-rba-is-making-confusion-about-inflation-and-the-cost-of-living-even-worse
• Mark the Ballot on federal-polls-quick-update
• Kevin Bonham on not-poll-reset-1-of-2024-lawler-defeated
• Andrew Norton on the-government-will-cap-new-international-students-at-270-000-in-2025-but-this-number-may-not-be-reached
• Peter Martin on stand-by-for-interest-rate-cuts-the-us-is-about-to-start-so-expect-australia-to-follow
• Tony Wood on does-australia-face-a-gas-shortage-no-just-victoria-where-empty-wells-meet-a-lack-of-planning
• Philip Oldfield et al on how-low-can-we-go-to-cut-the-carbon-that-goes-into-buildings-to-net-zero-we-need-radical-change
• croaking cassandra on wholly-inappropriate

OZ Climate

• australian-flow-battery-pioneer-put-into-administration-after-failing-to-find-backers
  
• snowy-buys-extra-boring-machine-to-support-disappointing-florence-as-testing-unearths-more-problems
  
• us-researchers-identify-new-sugar-based-resin-for-easily-recyclable-wind-turbine-blades
  
• solar-saturation-seven-changes-to-the-electricity-market-needed-to-put-consumers-first
  
• queenslands-biggest-battery-to-double-in-size-after-agl-signs-virtual-contract
  
• rooftop-pv-sends-grid-demand-to-new-winter-low-as-big-wind-and-solar-hit-by-record-curtailment
  
• new-solar-wind-and-battery-boosts-reliability-outlook-but-aemo-says-no-room-for-more-delay
  
• south-australia-to-enshrine-100-pct-net-renewable-target-in-law-as-bhp-looks-to-double-smelting-capacity
  
• Andrew King on 40-c-in-august-a-climate-expert-explains-why-australia-is-ridiculously-hot-right-now
• Ove Hoegh-Gulberg on humanity-is-failing-official-report-warns-our-chance-to-save-the-great-barrier-reef-is-fast-closing
• Graham Readfearn on without-new-gas-the-australian-warns-an-energy-crisis-is-nigh-but-is-the-scary-rhetoric-justified
• Alison Reeve on wondering-what-to-make-of-warnings-about-our-electricity-system-the-outlook-is-improving-but-were-not-out-of-the-woods

Northern America

• Sohrab Ahmari on tim-walzs-big-threat-to-the-gop Thanks Nick
• Dylan Scott on medicare-drug-prices-pharma-negotiations-innovation
• noahopinion on whats-up-with-those-revised-job-numbers
• Menzie Chinn on different-counts-of-nfp-gains
• Rachel Cohen on teachers-school-unions-labor-education-students-strikes
• David Dunn on project-2025-what-is-it-and-why-does-trump-say-he-knows-nothing-about-it
• Deidre Clemente on kamalas-kicks-tims-lids-and-the-red-ties-that-bind-trump-and-vance-whats-behind-the-fashion-choices-of-each-candidate
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-title-x-abortion-oklahoma-hhs , georgia-elections-board-maga-stolen-election
• Mary Zeigler on republicans-abortion-ballot-losing-streak-stop-vote
• Angry Bear on special-counsel-jack-smiths-opening-brief-is-due-in-the-eleventh-circuit-this-tuesday
• Bill Haskell on lying-about-economics
• Eric Schliesser on algorithmic-macroprudential-risk-and-a-legal-case-related-to-possible-rent-inflation
• Tyler Cowen on jim-crow-and-black-economic-progress-after-slavery
• Jill Filipovic on why-kamala-harris-triggers-donald-trump
• Peter Wehner on trump-betrays-pro-life-movement
• Rachel Monroe on how-arizonas-maricopa-county-became-the-battleground-for-election-conspiracies
• Joel Eissenberg on how-will-the-trump-and-harris-budgets-affect-the-national-debt
• Amrita Jash on us-shifts-nuclear-focus-counter-china-s-growing-arsenal
• Norman Eissen and Jacob Kovacs-Goodman on supreme-court-help-trump-close-election

Europe

• angry bear on when-does-putin-finally-say-enough-is-enough
• Mainly Macro on transforming-politics-of-immigration
• Joshua Keating on kursk-nuclear-escalation-zelenskyy-putin
• Mick Ryan on the-us-wants-to-avoid-world-war-iii-so-ukraine-has-no-choice-but-attack

Asia

• Syed Haider on why-imran-khan-running-chancellor-university-oxford
• Ian Parmeter on can-israel-and-hezbollah-both-claim-success-after-weekend-strikes-and-what-could-happen-next , lebanon-has-made-survival-an-art-form-after-decades-of-war-and-unrest
• Phyo Oo on in-myanmars-brutal-war-the-military-is-weaponising-sexual-violence-against-women-children-and-lgbtqi-people
• Jenny Bloomfield on right-side-history-taiwan-its-real-estate
• Tim Lindsay and Simon Butt on jokowi-wants-to-build-a-political-dynasty-in-indonesia-a-once-pliant-court-and-angry-public-are-standing-in-the-way
• Mohd Yunus on geopolitical-ripple-effect-asia-s-ageing-population
• Menzie Chinn on brad-setser-on-chinas-true-trade-balance
• Alexandra Colombier on thailands-youngest-ever-prime-minister-a-new-veneer-for-old-power-structures
• Henry Storey on china-puts-squeeze-myanmar-s-tatmadaw

Wonk

• Vincent Ho on constipation-increases-your-risk-of-a-heart-attack-new-study-finds-and-not-just-on-the-toilet
• Ulrege Egede on heaviest-antimatter-observation-yet-will-fine-tune-numbers-for-dark-matter-search
• Tim Harford on gamification-like-fun-but-more-hellish
• the conversable economist on james-tobin-on-finance-and-social-welfare-40-years-ago , disability-weighting , must-optimism-be-naive-thoughts-from-wynton-marsalis-and-his-definition-of-jazz , the-us-decouples-from-china-while-the-eu-tightens-ties , simon-newcomb-on-public-opinions-and-economic-insights
• noahopinion on why-you-should-not-ignore-economists
• Timothy Koskie on french-police-have-arrested-the-founder-of-telegram-what-happens-next-could-change-the-course-of-big-tech
• Tyler Cowen on why-massive-deregulation-is-very-difficult
• Alex Tabarrok on rawls-killed-marx
• Fred Kaplan on war-ukraine-gaza-ceasefire-international-diplomacy-breakdown
• Tyler Cowen on was-the-great-stagnation-originally-a-problem-of-human-capital
• Robert Waldmann on diagnostic-expectations-anchoring-and-actual-expectations
• Chris Bertram on on-joseph-heaths-account-of-the-trajectory-of-analytical-marxism

General

• Daniel Price on watch-a-star-get-destroyed-by-a-supermassive-black-hole-in-the-first-simulation-of-its-kind
• Menzie Chinn on guest contribution: lessons from 85 years of movies on finance

Climate

• Real Climate on the-need-for-pluralism-in-climate-modelling
• skeptical science on fact-brief-cosmic-rays , bold-plan-save-corals
• met office on when-sounding-the-alarm-feels-too-alarming
• Marina Coren on earth-corals-climate-change
• Real Climate on oh-my-oh-miocene
• Richard Meade on what-if-big-oil-championed-and-profited-from-the-green-transition-heres-how-it-could-work

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• heroes-and-villains-the-effects-of-identification-strategies-on-strong-causal-claims-in-france
  
• beyond-junk-science-how-to-go-forward
  
• whats-gonna-happen-between-now-and-november-5
  
• marriage-happiness
  
• piranhas-for-omics
  
• the-statistical-controversy-over-white-rural-rage-the-threat-to-american-democracy-and-a-comment-about-post-publication-review
  
• why-are-we-making-probabilistic-election-forecasts-and-why-dont-we-put-much-total-effort-into-them
  
• Freakometrics on its the start of the insurance manual

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• standards
  
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading
• Jo Case on best-australian-books-of-the-21st-century-as-chosen-by-50-experts
• stumbling and mumbling on the-unaccountability-machine-a-review
• Scott Monk on book-review/why-the-church-and-politics-arent-polls-apart
• noahopinion on book-review-enders-game

vox wonk

• geography-and-determinants-new-work-united-states
  
• credibility-trust-and-perception-authorities-performance
  
• connector-countries-geoeconomically-fragmented-world
  
• found-translation-why-some-countries-learn-west-and-most-dont
  
• exorbitant-privilege-and-sustainability-us-public-debt
  
• financial-crises-and-global-supply-network-evidence-multinational-enterprises
  
• economic-consequences-us-china-technological-decoupling-illustrative-quantitative
  
• impact-political-connections-firm-outcomes-evidence-germany
  

The CPI was good

 The CPI was released yesterday. It was pretty good. most Federal government measures concerning electricity have yet to affect the CPI. They will in august.

CBA economic research says this  'the number of items in the CPI basket with annual inflation below 2% continued to rise and now outnumbers the number of items with prices growing above the RBA’s inflation target band, which continues to fall.'

Also important measures of core inflation continue to ease.

All in all a pretty good result.

I still think the RBA will cut in november. The economy is slowing as is inflation. Inflation does not need to be in the 2-3 % to cut. The RBA simply have to be confident it will get there!