I'm with Ross Gittins and Saul Eslake

 I totally agree with Ross Gittins.

To me it is merely another form of protectionism which always fail. Be afraid!

No rate rise

 I was not surprised there was no rate rise. Inflation is not on the rise and we do not even know if the last quarter CPI was an outlier or not.

As the retail figures are showing the economy is slowing quite a lot. Unless you believe the economy must go into recession to get inflation down to proper levels talk of increasing rates is hairy chestness at its worst.

The budget is up next tuesday. As i have said previously the government is in a bind. The previous did not do any budget repair at all. To pursue this when the RBA is aggressively increasing interest rates is absurd. Modest improvements yes because anything else would bring on a recession.

Might I say it is hypocritical in the extreme for the Opposition to do this given they di not pursue budget repair at all. In examining fiscal policy you look at spending but also taxation. This is why the current government's fiscal policy is modestly restrictive. It could change at the margin next tuesday because of the tax cuts. This will only have a very modest effect on the economy perhaps allowing the economy to avoid a recession.

The government cannot aggressively pursue budget repair because of this  and because it is following monetary policy as the previous government did nothing about the ballooning budget deficits.

The times are tricky!

What is happening in US Universities

 It appears most US students appear sympathetic to the cause of Palestine. This is unquestionably because of the Israeli government's reaction to the October 7 massacre. They believe, as I do but probably doe different reasons, Revenge is not a just solution.

It seems that those people who claim to be conservative but are not smear the uni students with the claim they are prio-Hamas. I have read most articles where this is allege on Hotair but none have provided a scintilla of proof. Some appear confused between the Palestinian flag and the Hamas flag!  The other thing which is usually asserted is the protesters are anti-semitic. Again no proof but it could be these writers confuse criticism of Israel with anti-semitism.

I am at a loss as to why Unis in the USA want the demonstrations to close. Demonstrating is a rite of passage for a uni student.

THIS is useful for an understanding.

Unis need to both keep villence out of demonstrations and have the demonstrations on land but not in buildings.

Both things tend to happen when opposing sides get too close to each other. Sending in police almost always exacerbates the situation.  Asking the demonstrators for student identification would also help. No identification then your outa here.

Just contrast what is occurring in the US to what is occurring here!

I am not sure if administrators understand the role of Universities in some parts of the USA

There will never be a two state solution and neither peace in the Middle East

 I have no new ideas here but what is the problem going on.

In essence it is about Land.

Arabs did not want Jews coming to the land they lived in taking some of it. That is part of history. I live in Australia and we took land from those who could not fight back. It is so on every continent, The State of Israel became a national state in 1948 and nothing is going to change that.

Part of the problem of 1948 was Israelis taking Arab's property when they fled from Jewish terrorist groups. Arabs came back to their homes to find out they were no longer allowed to live in their property. This has never been resolved. Part of the reason is Israel does not recognise this occurred!

If we go across to the West Bank this regularly occurs. Israelis use the law to take over Arab property. This continues to occur. This shows modern day Jews do not read the books of Amos or Micah for example.

In Gaza where Hamas regularly gained recruits by going to families where they have lost loved ones. Imagine what will occur when whatever organisation succeeds Hamas. Revenge is the food everyone eats. Israelis have gorged themselves on it. Palestinian muslims will want to take revenge on the slaughter that is happening now.

We now have Israeli ministers making the nonsensical argument that most of the 34,000 killed are Hamas  operatives. This would mean Hamas consists mainly of women and children! They have deliberately kept aid to low levels and targeted hospitals some of which are not operating.

A two state solution needs a Mandela on both sides. I cannot see one. It needs two nations to live side by side in peace. It also needs one side, the Palestinians, to have enough territory to have a state. 

Gaza needs a humongous amount of money to create enough housing for Gazans to live in. Israel has destroyed around 80% of it. I cannot see them donating money to build any housing there whilst in the West bank Palestinians are losing more and more housing to Israelis.

Overall the outlook is very bleak

Around the Traps 3/5/24

 It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Bernard Keane and Glenn Dyer on manufacturing-australia-anthony-albanese-labor Thanks Nick
• David Walker on domestic-violence-in-australia-some-things-the-statistics-say-and-the-media-should-report
• Ross Gittins on sorry-its-not-gallantry-that-wins-wars-its-economic-might , its-not-perfect-but-our-health-system-is-one-of-the-best , is-future-made-in-australia-good-or-bad-thing
• Mark the Ballot on has-resolve-strategic-changed-its-methodology
• Rick Sarre on new-homicide-statistics-show-surge-in-intimate-partner-killings-and-huge-disparity-in-first-nations-victims
• Ian Hill and Seena Saram on what-just-happened-to-bonza-why-new-budget-airlines-always-struggle-in-australia
• John Quiggin on bonza-airline-collapse-australia-neoliberalism
• Henry Cutler on clearing-the-elective-surgery-backlog-will-take-more-than-one-budget-itll-need-major-reform
• Greg Earl on economic-diplomacy-it-s-nostalgists-vs-strategists

OZ Climate

• bowen-says-coalitions-nuclear-push-would-put-grid-reliability-at-risk-due-to-delays-in-coal-plant-closures
  
• keeping-the-lights-on-coal-closures-will-be-messy-but-planning-for-post-coal-grid-needs-to-start-now
  
• neoens-collie-battery-to-be-australias-biggest-after-winning-new-contract-to-flatten-solar-duck
  
• simply-astounding-australian-coal-mine-methane-emissions-may-be-twice-offical-data
  
• solar-is-now-being-installed-faster-than-any-technology-in-history
  
• six-projects-named-to-start-feasibility-studies-for-australias-first-offshore-wind-farms
  
• no-threat-to-farm-land-claims-that-australia-does-not-have-room-for-solar-and-wind-are-not-true
  
• new-big-battery-trumps-solar-farms-to-become-top-earner-for-genex-as-it-cashes-in-on-market-volatility
  
• blackouts-and-brownouts-the-coalitions-dystopian-take-on-renewables
  
• John Rose and Andrea Pelligrini on electric-vehicles-will-start-to-cut-emissions-and-improve-air-quality-in-our-cities-but-only-once-theyre-common
• Johanna Bowyer on extending-eraring-has-still-not-been-adequately-justified
• Gabrielle Kuiper and Johanna Bowyer on aemo-needs-greater-ambition-der-true-whole-system-isp

Northern America

• Kerl Merritt on capitalism-and-underdevelopment-in-the-american-south Thanks Brad
• Menzie Chinn on stagflation-fears-march-nber-business-cycle-indicators-and-instantaneous-inflation 
• Zack Beauchamp on canada-pierre-poilievre-conservative-party-populism-democracy , israel-palestine-student-protest-columbia-ucla-radicalism
• David Frum on even-bill-barr-should-prefer-joe-biden
• noahopinion on biden-is-right-that-we-need-to-raise-taxes
• Robert Waldmann on why-isnt-the-usa-in-a-recession
• David Zipper on suvs-trucks-popularity-federal-policy-pollution
• new deal democrat on coronavirus-dashboard-4-years-into-the-pandemic-all-time-low-in-hospitalizations-deaths-likely-to-follow
• the conversable economist on reallocation-within-an-industry-a-secret-strength-for-the-us-economy , congestion-pricing-in-manhattan-about-to-arrive
• Brad De Long on americas-downward-political-spiral-continues
• Albert Alschuler on trump-presidential-immunity-supreme-court-argument-plain-statement-rule
• Jeet Heer on kristi-noem-killing-puppy-cruelty-gop , supreme-court-abortion-idaho
• Sean Willenz on the-immunity-con-donald-trump
• Stephen Breyer on choosing-pragmatism-over-textualism-stephen-breyer
• Eric Kramer on eric-segall-tells-us-what-he-really-thinks-about-the-roberts-court
• Tyler Cowen on trump-and-the-fed
• David Graham on trump-manhattan-trial-sleep
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-shrinking-docket-quiet-quitting

Europe

• Aris Roussinos on what-thatcher-can-teach-the-pro-israel-right Thanks Nick
• Mainly Macro on high-on-their-own-supply
• Jonathan Parker on scotlands-government-fell-apart-in-a-week-heres-what-happened
• Jan Dutkiewicz on europe-farmer-protests-eu-climate-environmental-policy-subsidies-livestock

Asia

• Rahul Mishra and Yanitha Louis on why-india-s-global-south-ambitions-must-turn-southeast-asia
• Sadia Rahman on cable-ties-china-s-digital-silk-road
• Richard Heydarian on balikatan-2024-philippines-friends-send-clear-signal-china
• noahopinion on is-japan-having-a-currency-crisis , whos-afraid-of-east-asian-management-culture
• Gabriela Bernal on trouble-together-how-north-korea-sees-its-growing-interests-iran
• renew ecconomy on staggering-rise-of-clean-energy-in-china-a-wake-up-call-to-australia-including-on-nuclear
• Tyler Cowen on will-japan-have-a-financial-crisis-anytime-soon
• Issac Chotiner on how-much-aid-is-actually-reaching-gazans
• Joshua Keating on us-saudi-israel-normalization-defense-pact-gaza-two-state
• institutional economics on the-japanese-yen-and-other-catastrophes
• Alyson Horne on gaza-airdrop-the-wests-quagmire-parachuting-food-to-palestinians

Wonk

• Institutional Economics on the-dollar-bloc-inflation-shock
• Tim Harford on why-the-biscuit-tax-leaves-a-bad-taste-in-the-mouth
• Priya Pillai on need-convention-crimes-against-humanity
• Macarena Marey on the-destruction-of-argentinas-higher-education-and-science-system
• John Quiggin on machines and tools
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-elections-and-devaluations

General

• Nalini Joshi on mind-bending-maths-could-stop-quantum-hackers-but-few-understand-it
• Jonti Horner and Tanya Hill on the-eta-aquariid-meteor-shower-is-about-to-peak-and-could-be-the-best-this-century-heres-how-to-catch-it

Climate

• Rabett Run on alex-tabarrock-and-argumentum-ad-flubberum
• Sharon Robinson on longer-lasting-ozone-holes-over-antarctica-expose-seal-pups-and-penguin-chicks-to-much-more-uv
• skeptical science on pinning-down-climate-extreme-weather
• Umair Irfan on la-nina-2024-el-nino-heat-hurricane-record-temperature-pacific

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• evaluating-mcmc-samplers
  
• often-enough-scientists-are-left-with-the-unenviable-task-of-conducting-an-orchestra-with-out-of-tune-instruments
  
• boris-and-natasha-in-america-how-often-is-the-wife-taller-than-the-husband
  
• disparities-in-mortality-by-sexual-orientation-in-a-large-prospective-jama-paper
  
• who-wrote-the-music-for-in-my-life-three-bayesian-analyses
  
• freakometrics on decomposition of changes in means and inequality , non-life insurance mathematics
• Kaiser Fung on a-ceo-says-they-will-spend-money-to-lose-money

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• impact-higher-interest-rates-uk-firms
  
• sailing-through-storms-fallout-red-sea-disruptions-global-trade-and-inflation
  
• unlocking-efficiency-optimal-monetary-policy-when-capital-misallocation-matters
  
• open-science-means-development-aid-fostering-scientific-research-and-innovation
  
• transformation-activities-and-risks-between-bank-and-non-bank-financial
  
• changing-central-bank-pressures-and-inflation
  
• promises-and-pitfalls-green-supply-chain
  
• how-and-why-work-home-rates-differ-across-countries-and-people
  
• geography-eu-discontent-and-regional-development-trap
  
• should-ai-stay-or-should-ai-go-promises-and-perils-ai-productivity-and-growth
  

Can we get fair dinkum on what racism is

 There is a legal case between the two greatest minds of the Australian senate ( sarc). During the case it was stated you could not make a racist comment on a white person because of the power imbalance.

 Holy Derrider bollocks batman.

Racism is making a derogatory comment about a person and linking it to the persons skin colour. You allege the person is stupid, smelly, immoral etc because of their skin colour. Thus saying blacks have lower intelligence than others is a racist statement because you are asserting it is because they are black.

Saying someone is a black bastard is NOT racist as black here is merely an adjective. you are not alleging the person is a bastard because they are black.

got it. Good.

The US Supreme Court is a disgrace

 I am sick to death with the US Supreme Court.

Here are some articles on why. Hint it is about the current court case.

• supreme-court-immunity-arguments-which-way-now
  
• supreme-court-donald-trump-immunity-jack-smith
  
• supreme-court-trump-immunity-jan-6-trial
  

Why did not Clarence Thomas recuse himself. His wife is up to her ears in the insurrection yet there he sits and his vote might just ensure there is a trump friendly decision when under any other case it would be thrown out.

The key conservatives seem to think this case is worse than the insurrection. Since they cannot be that stupid there is only one reason for this. it is the same on why this case is taking so long to decide. They want trump to be President so both Thomas and Alito can retire.

How could they be worried about what future Presidents might face when only Nixon and now Trump are the only criminals to allegedly hold office. Think about it no other President had to worry about what occurred post Presidency since America became a nation.

I now have no confidence what so ever that this Supreme court would apply the law to Trump if he actually won the Presidency.

In this hearing the male conservative justices have not tried to hide their open biases. This will lead to a further deterioration in trust of this institution. 

The USA is in decline and people who claim to be conservative are leading that decline and indeed making it worse.

The world is fortunate that dictators like Xi and Putin are very poor distators!