polling denialism and disinformation

 The marvelous Kevin Bonham has a great article on the above on polling here in Australia. Well worth a read.

Endeavour last episode

 A change of pace.

I did write about Endeavour after it finished however I did not write about the last episode.

Here are three views

1. endeavour-fred-thursday-final-scene-more-devastating-than-we-thought
   
2. endeavour-series-finale-recap-pbs-inspector-morse-shaun-evans
   
3. farewell-endeavour-what-a-perfect-end-to-one-of-tvs-classic-shows
   

I don't really think any of these views are wrong. ( I wanted to view the last episode again but the ABC no longer has any episodes at all.) Channel 7 now has it but has not started at series 1 episode 1. grrrr.

A few points.

This is devastating for morse.  Thursday has always been both a mentor and a father figure. They have put their lives on the line for each other a number of times but now he is told Thursday has murdered a man to protect his son. I do not think anyone can comprehend how powerful this is to Morse. He can never talk or contact him again. It is why we never learn of thursday in the Inspector Morse series. 

At the same time he loses the love of his life to his best mate who marries her and he is best man ( what an  irony).

I cannot help of thinking od the last episode of Inspector morse when he is dying in the hospital. Could Strange had said to his wife why did Morse become such an embittered man who drank far too much and joan spills the beans to him.

The episode gives a very good reasons on how Inspector morse starts and finishes! It shows why and how Morse's life is a tragedy. A brilliant detective who in effect hates life.

A bloody great series

Independent contracting is shite

 The government is changing labor place laws and it is about time. however I want to merely rant about independent contracting.

In some few cases where the people are making very good money it will be welcomed however in most cases it won't. contrary to what most spokesmen and women who purport to represent employers it is never a choice. You are given the choice of being an independent contractor or nothing. you do not get a wage, sick leave or recreation leave. you do not get the SGC.

It is a patent way to rip off former or potential employees. I remember it happened to someone I knew who did this for Australia Post. I had a number of job interviews for a position and was actually working when the job changed from either F/T ot P/T job to being an independent contractor. I said no.

It is almost always a ruse to reduce labour costs both in the short term but also the long term.

Productivity

 I do find it ironic that spokesmen and women for employers ( who have rarely been in the industries they now represent) when talking about productivity they never ever admit increases in productivity are all in their corner .

They invest in buildings, equipment etc that involves capital deepening. They also have the power to change job processes.

Around the Traps 1/9/23

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Rohan Fisher and Boyd Elston on indigenous-rangers-are-burning-the-desert-the-right-way-to-stop-the-wrong-kind-of-intense-fires-from-raging
• Yhuting Zhang et al on does-private-health-insurance-cut-public-hospital-waiting-lists-we-found-it-barely-makes-a-dent
• Adam Bartley et al  on australia-un-new-agenda-peace
• Ross Gittins on how-to-make-sense-of-treasurys-latest-intergenerational-report, murray-darling-basin-farmers-friends-are=helping-them-selfharm
• Kevin Bonham on voice-referendum-ticks-and-crosses
• renew economy on afrs-sloppy-journalism-makes-a-nonsense-of-its-case-for-nuclear-smrs, there-are-smarter-and-cheaper-alternatives-to-keeping-australias-biggest-coal-plant-open, wind-and-solar-strangle-coal-and-gas-but-diesel-suvs-are-killing-us-all, rapid-us-coal-exit-has-lessons-for-australia-as-it-faces-down-fossil-lobby-once-again, nsw-to-take-more-time-to-consider-closure-date-of-australias-biggest-coal-generator, high-velocity-renewables-shift-urgently-needs-bigger-and-stronger-grid-says-transgrid, its-not-going-to-be-cheap-australia-warned-on-first-offshore-wind-costs-and-supply-chains, turning-point-wind-and-solar-deliver-810-bn-in-savings-from-fossil-fuels-in-single-year, australias-emissions-and-grid-policies-remain-a-mess-and-time-is-nearly-up, australias-biggest-engineering-debacle-snowy-2-0-costs-double-again-to-reported-12bn, aemo-says-eraring-closure-wont-trigger-reliability-shortfall-if-big-batteries-built-on-time, ageing-coal-and-gas-generators-getting-less-reliable-says-aemo, bowen-confirms-12bn-snowy-2-0-cost-blowout-says-pitfalls-should-have-been-known, costs-jump-for-controversial-new-gas-plant-with-no-update-on-green-hydrogen-in-the-mix, aemo-says-eraring-closure-wont-trigger-reliability-shortfall-if-big-batteries-built-on-time
• Mark Kenny on strong-political-leaders-are-electoral-gold-but-the-trick-is-in-them-knowing-when-to-stand-down
• Stephen Bartos on how-drought-in-central-america-is-pushing-up-the-cost-of-living-in-australia
• Dorina Pojani and Aude Bernard on think-curbing-overseas-migration-will-end-the-housing-crisis-it-wont-and-we-cant-afford-to-do-it
• Ryan Neelam on climate-change-counting-costs-opportunities
• Croaking Cassandra on misgovernment-and-other-things, but-we-havent-had-a-three-year-negative-output-gap, nationals-tax-and-spending-plan
• Peter Martin on with-one-exception-the-intergenerational-report-is-far-less-scary-than-youve-heard
• Dan Andrews and Elyse Dwyer on flying-under-the-radar-australias-silent-and-growing-competition-crisis
• Gareth Evans on compelling-voice-rethinking-australia-s-national-security
• Greg Jericho on australia-quarterly-greenhouse-emissions-data-survey
• Gabrielle Appleby et al on how-do-the-yes-and-no-cases-stack-up-constitutional-law-experts-take-a-look
• Tony Wood on unsexy-but-vital-why-warnings-over-grid-reliability-are-really-about-building-more-transmission-lines
• Rico Merket on what-will-putting-the-interests-of-qantas-ahead-of-qatar-airways-cost-1bn-per-year-and-a-new-wave-of-protectionism-of-legacy-carriers
• Johanna Bowyer on reliability-forecast-confirms-australia-needs-stay-track-energy-transition
• Patricia Rogers on risky-behaviour-three-predictable-problems-with-the-australian-centre-for-evaluation

Northern America

• Will Bunch on 2020-election-trump-authoritarianism Thanks Brad
• Liz Zhou on jacksonville-shooting-hate-crime
• Liz Zhou and Andrew Prokop on trump-charges-prison-time-sentence-indictments
• noahopinion on americans-are-coping-ourselves-to-death
• newdeal democrat on fed-rate-hikes-in-the-face-of-declining-commodity-prices-an-analysis-of-4-precedents
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-nuclear-safety-fifth-circuit-james-ho-radioactive-texas-commission
• the conversable economist on is-the-us-economy-seeing-an-upsurge-of-new-firms
• Sean Illing on sohrab-ahmari-tyranny-inc-the-gray-area
• Peter Sagal on trumpism-maga-cult-republican-voters-indoctrination
• Osita Nwanemu on the-life-of-the-party-what-it-took-to-win-kazin
• the present age on give-me-a-reason-to-write-the-news Thanks Brad
• Nicholas Grossman on media-still-doesnt-get-biden-voters Thanks Brad
• Jeet Heer on vivek-ramaswamys-racist-jacksonville-shootings, real-hunter-biden-scandal
• Nathaniel Rakich on after-an-eventful-month-trump-has-lost-support-in-the-gop-primary
• Dahlia Lithwick on clarence-thomas-ethics-worst-supreme-court-votes

Europe

• Ian Kemish on whether-russia-or-china-clearly-baerbock-driving-germany-s-change
• Isabella Currie on prigozhin-gone-what-next-wagner-group
• Danica Jenkins on how-russian-history-and-the-concept-of-smuta-turmoil-sheds-light-on-putin-and-prigozhin-and-the-dangers-of-dissent
• Menzie Chinn on 2-5-russian-gdp-growth-in-2023-finance-minister
• Ian Kemish on europe-s-last-war
• Joel Eissenberg on war-and-punishment
• writing from London on daniel-hannan-and-the-emptying-of-the-conservative-mind Thanks Brad
• stumbling and mumbling on thatcherism-is-dead-thatcherism-lives

Asia

• Tyler Cowen on excess-all-cause-mortality-in-china-after-ending-the-zero-covid-policy
• Ian Johnson on Xi's age of stagnation Thanks Brad
• Menzie Chinn on the-problems-with-chinas-economy
• Muhammed Pamungkas on weeks-living-dangerously-jakarta-all-over-again
• Jitsiree Thongnoi on cambodia-thailand-dealing-china-more-things-change
• Jonathan Guyer on israel-ben-gvir-palestine-comments-freedom-movement-controversy
• Brad De Long on draft-what-is-going-on-wi-chinas-economy
• Angry Bear on chinas-economy-slowing

Wonk

• Institutional Economics on the-nominal-gdp-level-target-that-time-forgot
• Ellen Ioannes on zimbabwe-election-fraud-allegations-mnangagwa-harare
• Tim Harford on what-id-put-in-my-museum-of-the-economy
• noahopinion on brics-is-fake, decoupling-isnt-phoney
• the conversable economist on interview-with-james-gwartney-personal-choices-and-public-choice, for-the-us-and-global-economy-what-pathways-to-reduce-government-debt
• Peter Layton on every-flight-is-a-learning-event-why-the-v-22-osprey-aircraft-wont-be-grounded-despite-dozens-of-crashes-and-54-fatalities
• Ingrid Robeyns on limitarianism-academic-essays
• Mainly Macro on attitudes-towards-redistribution
• the grumpy economist on interest-rates-and-inflation-part-3
• Laura Alfaro and Davin Chor on global supply chains the coming great reallocation Thanks Brad
• Serkan Arslanalp and Barry Eichengreen on living with high public debt Thanks Brad

General

• Gail Iles on almost-half-of-moon-missions-fail-why-is-space-still-so-hard
• Evgenii Krestianinov on sahara-space-rock-4-5-billion-years-old-upends-assumptions-about-the-early-solar-system

Climate

• David Appell on checking-on-antarctic-sea-ice
• and Then Theres Physics on alimonti-et-al-retracted
• real climate on the-amoc-tipping-this-century-or-not
• skeptical science on canada-wildfires-climate, at-a-glance-sealevel, climate-china-cropland
• ocean acidification on assessing-drivers-of-estuarine-ph-a-comparative-analysis-of-the-continental-u-s-a-s-two-largest-estuaries
• open mind on canada-wildfires
• Peter Sinclair on how-climate-change-makes-hurricanes-more-dangerous

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• differences-between-boy-and-girl-dinosaurs-going-beyond-p-values-and-dichotomous-thinking
  
• there-are-no-underpowered-datasets-there-are-only-underpowered-analyses
  
• chris-chamberss-radical-plan-for-psychological-science
  
• chatgpt-4-can-do-3-digit-multiplication
  
• the-variation-ignoring-junk-science-thats-promoted-by-association-for-psychological-science-and-related-academic-celebrities-its-like-a-poker-player-thinking-okay-if-push-all
  
• the conversable economist on real-people-statistical-people-and-the-probability-grid
• Kaiser Fung on if-its-an-rct-it-can-be-trusted, ethical-dilemmas-poll-results-post

Diane Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• numbers-objectivity-and-meaning
  
• the-industrial-revolution-causes-consequences
  
• Robert Solow on hayek-friedman-and-the-illusions-conservative-economics Thanks Nick
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading
• Maria Farrell on summer-2023-fun-reads

Vox Wonk

• testing-marx
  
• rise-walking-dead-zombie-firms-around-world
  
• limiting-climate-change-requires-rechannelling-special-drawing-rights-multilateral
  
• should-central-banks-abandon-single-point-forecasts
  
• new-scores-old-sores-morts-pour-la-france-database-wwi-fatalities-france
  
• economics-public-policy-leaks-new-evidence-central-banking
  
• pricing-climate-transition-risk-europes-equity-market
  
• how-contracting-structures-affect-project-outcomes-public-procurement
  
• ukraines-resilience-how-administrative-reform-boosted-social-capital-and-trust
  
• us-china-decoupling-rhetoric-and-reality
  

Reducing exposure from China

 Noah Smith writes a great article in noahopinion ( get it) about the decoupling essentially from China.

What has shocked me is the lack of speed in this. 

• Covid showed up supply chain problems with China.
•  It imposition of tariffs on Australian goods surely showed up the political risk of using China.
•  Its belligerence towards Taiwan surely exacerbates this as well.

Are capitalists that stupid ot do they simply not understand risk?

The Voice

 Apparently the PM will announce we will have the referendum on October 14.  ( Why do so many overseas countries have elections and votes like this on a working day. It makes no sense at all.)

I should firstly say i have always thought the referendum proposal would fail. It is simply too easy for people to make up reasons why the change is to be opposed. Surely the referendum on the republic showed that. Secondly it is false to say you need bi-partisan support for it to get up. In 1967 it did not occur despite bi-partisan support for the FIRST question ( usually ignored).

I am also having deja vu. some people keep on saying reject this proposal and we will come back with a better one. I kept on hearing that false statement when we were 'debating' the republic.

I am also amused by those aboriginal elites criticising Aboriginals supping the proposal as elites. It was similar in the republic referendum.

I can't get over how poor the spokesmen and women are. Warren Mundine is not even articulate and has never been impressive so how is he a front man? Whilst Price is articulate she is frequently shown to be wrong.

There was a time opponents kept on saying people were saying they were racists. They offered no evidence and I admit I never saw it or heard it but wella. They produce a racist ad in the form of a cartoon that Bill Leak would have been proud of.

We have also had at least two people associated with the no campaign making racist comments. Note however it has had little effect on voting intention. This means most people have rightly come to the conclusion that the no campaign is not overly racists but only at the margins.

Lost in all this is how to bring Aboriginals up to the standards most other Australians have.

Whoopsy I should have added Burney has been hopeless as the minister. McCarthy is way more impressive.