The morning after a complete embrassment

 That was not a 'debate' it was a farce and an embarrassment.

possibly the best review come from why evolution is true. ( Thanks Jim Rose).

I do not agree with al lot of it but it is a good article.

I agree with Bob Woodward that Trump never has a plan. I think overall if he loses he will merely whinge about it rather than doing anything else and he will do it for a long time.

Behind Trump's financial house of Cards

 The wholesale dumping of a whole of of Trump's tax returns was very illuminating.

Here is one of the best articles on the main point.

Trump is in a lot of trouble. 

Herd Immunity and related Covid stuff

 Brian Resnik is a great journalist at Vox

He has recently written two related articles which are of great value.

They are:

• herd-immunity-explained-covid-19-pandemic
  
• covid-19-airborne-who-aerosol-droplet-transmission-cdc
  

I didn't realise that getting the virus from touching something is very very unlikely.  Some-one tell Cricket NSW!

Is the USA a failed State plus a bit on the debates

 It seems Donald Trump really does want the USA to become a failed state and a banana republic.

IF and it is a really  big IF he 'wins' the election  simply  because a lot of postal ballots are deemed invalid and you have to realise this the Supreme court would have to rule this way then democracy has simply vanished.

The USA is then little different to Russia, Belarus etc.

This is exacerbated if Trump refuses to leave because he thinks he has 'won'.

McMaster is correct as well.

On a worst case scenario a lot of people will give up on democracy and simply not recognise the institutions. riots will proliferate and there will be possible armed resistance to both a illegitimate Presidency and Supreme Court.

I don't think it will get there. My guess is there are a majority of Justices who will rule against the specious reasons Trump and his supports put up. They are aware of how history will judge them ( pun intended).

The Debates are over-rated as THIS article shows.  Trump has overdone expectations of how Biden will perform. Biden only has to perform moderately to 'win'.

What also helps Biden is  neither are very good 'debaters'. Watching the 'debates' will be like pulling teeth.

THIS could be front and centre.

update:

It won't happen

Around the Traps 25/9/20

 It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Bruce Bradbury and Peter Whiteford on unemployment-support-will-be-slashed-by-300-this-week-this-wont-help-people-find-work
• renew economy on does-scott-morrison-have-any-idea-what-a-big-battery-can-actually-do, morrison-performs-massive-backflip-on-liddell-gigawatt-gas-plan, taylor-favours-fossil-fuels-and-farmers-as-roadmap-picks-five-technology-winners, tesla-big-battery-in-south-australia-delivers-stunning-windfall-profits
• Greg Jericho on recent-australian-unemployment-rates-didnt-seem-to-make-sense-heres-what-is-going-on
• Yum Jiang on pro-china-nationalists-are-using-intimidation-to-silence-critics-can-they-be-countered-without-stifling-free-speech
• Croaking Cassandra on productivity-and-politicians-who-no-longer-care
• Andrew Macgee and Anthony Kiem on our-new-model-shows-australia-can-expect-11-tropical-cyclones-this-season
• Mark Crosby on why-do-bankers-behave-so-badly-they-make-too-much-money-to-ask-questions
• Danielle Fitzpatrick on building-covid-vaccine-strategy-australia
• Institutional Economics on debelle-talks-up-rba-balance-sheet
• Ross Gittins on how-economists-got-it-wrong-for-so-long
• Kevin Bonham on newspoll-sound-of-narratives-dying
• Rick Mortn on by-2020-standards-angus-taylors-low-emissions-technology-statement-is-not-really-a-climate-policy
• Theo Nirmalathas on nbn-upgrades-explained-how-will-they-make-internet-speeds-faster-and-will-the-regions-miss-out
• Chris Edmond and Bruce Preston on keating-is-right-the-reserve-bank-should-do-more-it-needs-to-aim-for-more-inflation
• Chiara Holgate et al on we-looked-at-35-years-of-rainfall-and-learnt-how-droughts-start-in-the-murray-darling-basin
• Dale Boccabella on testamentary-trusts-are-one-of-the-last-truly-outrageous-means-of-avoiding-tax

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-the-trade-war-has-cost-175000-manufacturing-jobs-and-counting, cbo-on-the-macro-impact-of-pandemic-recovery-packages-thus-far
• Kate Bahn et al on wage-discrimination-and-the-exploitation-of-workers-in-the-u-s-labor-market Thanks Brad
• Jonathin Entin on ruth-bader-ginsburg-helped-shape-the-modern-era-of-womens-rights-even-before-she-went-on-the-supreme-court
• Jared Mondschein on this-is-why-the-fight-over-the-supreme-court-could-make-the-us-presidential-election-even-nastier
• Adam Henschke on america-s-breaking-point
• Tyler Cowen on what-does-qanon-stand-for
• Erin Hurley on the-interpreter/ginsburg-s-pendulum
• Lili Loofbourow on ruth-bader-ginsburg-death-mitch-mcconnell
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-august-existing-home-sales, a-few-comments-on-august-new-home-sales
• David Rhode on how-trumps-supreme-court-maneuver-could-dangerously-increase-the-powers-of-the-president
• The conversable economist on where-federal-debt-is-headed
• Barton Gellman on what-if-trump-refuses-concede
• Pamela Garlin on our-most-vulnerable-election
• Geoffrey Skelley on trump-supporters-arent-shy-but-polls-could-still-be-missing-some-of-them
• Sean Rameswaram on fauci-rand-paul-covid-19-vaccine-trust-cdc-fda
• Adam Estes and Rebecca Heilweil on voter-fraud-trump-qanon-conspiracy-theory-2020-election

Europe

• stumbling and mumbling on blaming-the-voters
• Coppolla comment on statistics-for-state-pension-age

Asia

• Suzanne Levi-Sanchez on china-s-gambit-tajikistan-partner-or-overlord
• Aartu Bettigeri on india-puts-relations-japan-back-rails
• Khang Vu on south-china-sea-map-wasn-t
• Eric Kramer on chinas-climate-announcement

Wonk

• Brian Resnik on covid-19-airborne-who-aerosol-droplet-transmission-cdc
• Mainly Macro on why-neoliberalism-can-end-in-autocratic-populist-and incompetent-plutocracy
• Daniel Flitton on how-much-did-spies-really-know-about-virus
• renew economy on the-end-of-fossil-fuel-cars-tesla-battery-gains-to-trigger-30-trillion-ev-boom
• Frances Wooley on men-women-and-the-end-of-mandatory-retirement

General

• Luke Steffer and Martin Van Kranandonk on if-there-is-life-on-venus-how-could-it-have-got-there-origin-of-life-experts-explain
• the conversable economist on advice-on-writing-from-ruth-bader

Climate

• and Then Theres Phyics on evidence-led

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• the-challenge-of-fitting-good-advice-into-a-coherent-course-on-statistics
•  derived-quantities-and-generative-models
•  his-data-came-out-in-the-opposite-direction-of-his-hypothesis-how-to-report-this-in-the-publication
  
• bill-james-is-back
  
• the-misplaced-burden-of-proof-and-2-selection-bias-two-reasons-for-the-persistence-of-hype-in-tech-and-science-reporting
  
• pictures-represent-facts-stories-represent-acts-and-models-represent-concepts
  
• asleep-at-the-wheel-junk-science-gets-promoted-by-bill-gates-npr-ted-university-of-california-google-etc
• statschat on chloroquine-trial-exaggerations
• Kaiser Fung on masks-and-vaccines, notes-on-the-moderna-vaccine-trial-protocol-1, good-news-from-cornell

Econometrics

• The Grumpy Economist on romer-on-testing
• Freakometrics on from an abuse of language

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• economics-for-social-animals
  
• docs books on rage-by-bob-woodward Thanks Jim rose
• Marilyn Lake on review-new-biography-shows-vida-goldsteins-political-campaigns-were-courageous-her-losses-prophetic
• Erin Hurley on reckless-president-emboldened

Vox Wonk

• intergenerational-transmission-wealth-rich-countries
  
• combined-active-labour-market-policies-and-income-support-can-improve-workers-perspectives
  
• formal-insurance-and-religious-offerings-ghana
  
• wind-turbines-and-solar-farms-drive-down-house-prices
  
• effectiveness-managed-competition-during-pandemics
  
• jumpstarting-international-currency
  
• trademark-applications-indicator-post-covid-economic-activity
  
• organising-high-quality-conference-equal-access
  
• age-rising-inequality-no-yes
  
• local-covid-19-policies-us-impact-rest-country
  
• social-distancing-macrodynamic-models
  
• income-inequality-and-welfare-state-during-covid-19
  
• shecession-she-recession-2020-causes-and-consequences
  
• minimal-effects-tv-debates-between-candidates
  
• armington-elasticity-and-international-trade-models-fifty-years
  
• buy-british-viability-nationalist-commercial-policy
  
• how-americans-use-time-saved-working-home
  
• cross-border-venture-capital-technology-flows-and-national-security
  
• sovereign-risk-after-covid-19
  
• tale-three-depressions
  
• tracking-compliance-eu-fiscal-rules
  

I thought Dan Andrews was immensely unpopular.

 Daniel Andrews has taken an absolute battering from the press, mainly the Murdoch press, Yet When I read Kevin Bonham I find this is narrative is dying.

I am trying to ascertain how the Murdoch press is so different to the ordinary Australian ( or in this case Victorian). 

Of course i am being sarcastic!

NBN again

 The government does a back slip with pike on the NBN.

Their original policy made no sense. You simply cannot have copper combined with fibre. It is like putting a sped hump on at Bathurst for motor cars.

It seems to me they have realised three things.

1) Their current policy is an absolute crock so change it now when everyone is concentrating on  covid 

2) When wholesale rates are so low this makes even more sense.

3) their current policy is a vote loser

Why did it take so long. Maybe a quick look at their lack of energy policy tells us it takes them a long time to understand how bad some of their policies are