Martyn Iles is impressive

I was quite critical of the previous head of the Australian Christian Lobby Lyle Shelton. The new head Martin Iles is very impressive.

Unlike he close predecessor he appears to have no political ambitions. This means he does not have to ameliorate his message. When interviewed by Lisa Wilkinson and asked if homosexuals go to hell he calmly answered that ALL people got to hell unless they repent.
This is the correct answer. Secular journalists got into a tether about it and claimed he was avoiding the question. It is unfortunate they they did not realise he was in fact answering the question quite correctly.
Iles then ran with the donations to Folau when go fund me said Folau could not use that platform.  So he can see a solution when it is not apparent to others.

Iles is off to a great start. Let us hope he keeps up his good form.

Around the Traps 28/6/19

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Rob Mainwaring on centre-left-politics-dead-in-crisis-or-in-transition
• Trivess Moore et al on australias-still-building-4-in-every-5-new-houses-to-no-more-than-the-minimum-energy-standard
• Ross Gittins on poor-josh-frydenberg-on-wrong-tram-heading-for-trouble, news-from-shopping-trolley-retailers
• Greg Jericho on the-government-has-been-lying-about-the-strength-of-the-economy-its-lack-of-policy-is-hurting-us, bond-yields-are-useful-for-telling-us-about-the-future-and-its-not-looking-good
• Croaking Cassandra on some-material-on-makhloufs-performance, not-tenable-in-a-crisis, secretary-to-the-treasury , thoughts-prompted-by-the-ocr-review, the-ssc-on-makhlouf, cavalier-lawlessness, a-last-post-on-makhlouf
• Matt Curnock and Scott Heron on sadness-disgust-anger-fear-for-the-great-barrier-reef-made-climate-change-feel-urgent
• Pi-Shen Seet et al on jobs-are-changing-and-fast-heres-what-the-vet-sector-and-employers-need-to-do-to-keep-up
• Daniel Flitton on iran-australia-s-deliberate-ambiguity
• Ricardo Ambivalence on five-points-on-the-income-tax-cut-debate, im-cold-on-a-july-rba-rate-cut
• Michael Douglas on can-you-be-liable-for-defamation-for-what-other-people-write-on-your-facebook-page-australian-court-says-maybe
• Alex Oliver and Natasha Kassam on polls-were-wrong-here-s-our-poll-and-why-you-should-read-it
• Andrew Dowse and Mike Johnstone on is-australias-electricity-grid-vulnerable-to-the-kind-of-cyber-attacks-taking-place-between-russia-and-the-us
• Matt McDonald on are-australians-more-worried-about-climate-change-or-climate-policy
• renew economy on demand-response-battle-pits-old-power-against-new-with-consumers-in-the-middle, australias-first-unsubsidised-big-battery-installed-in-south-australia, big-3-energy-retailers-shaken-by-market-competition-should-brace-for-battery-impact
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-having-a-bob-each-way-on-us-and-china-is-australias-own-super-power

Northern America

• Jared Bernstein on three-observations-about-current-monetary-policy-the-last-one-is-the-most-important Thanks Mark
• Jerry Taylor on one-and-only-one-cheer-for-the-republican-innovation-answer-to-climate-change Thanks Brad
• Calculated Risk on a-few-comments-on-may-new-home-sales
• the conversable economist on where-us-government-debt-is-headed
• Lizzie O'Leary on child-detention-centers-immigration-attorney-interview
• Zack Beachamp on supreme-court-gerrymandering-republicans-democracy
• Noah Smith on noah-smith-elizabeth-warren-channels-the-real-new-deal Thanks Brad

Europe

• the conversable economist on three-years-since-brexit-vote-looking-back
• Mainly Macro on why-austerity-is-not-labours-legacy, once-nasty-party-now-brexit-party

Asia

• Kevin Rudd on trade-war-economic-decoupling-and-future-chinese-strategy-towards-america
• Milton Osborne on it-s-not-just-melting-glaciers-endanger-mekong-and-its-region
• Bates Gill on xi-jinpings-grip-on-power-is-absolute-but-there-are-new-threats-to-his-chinese-dream
• Qi Sang Ng on why-mahathir-unlikely-make-anwar-his-successor

Wonk

• stumbling and mumbling on the-recrudescence-of-zero-sum-thinking, the-human-factor
• Barkley Rosser on will-libra-destroy-cryptocurrenciees-or-vica-versa, whither-price-of-oil
• Understanding Society on herbert-simons-theories-of-organizations Thanks Mark
• Antonio Fatas on libra-not-currency-board-and-maybe-not
• microeconomics foundations on market-power-and-the-laffer-curve Thanks Mark
• Miah Hammond-Errey on transformative-potential-big-data
• Macromania on the-phillips-curve-in-recession-and-recovery
• Tim Harford on why-brilliant-people-lose-their-touch
• Scepticlawyer on clades-not-clusters-about-the-folk-theory-of-race
• Bradford De Long on weekend-reading-discussion-of-j-bradford-delong-and-lawrence-h-summers-fiscal-policy-in-a-depressed-economy
• T William Lester on inside-monopsony-employer-responses-higher-labor-standards-full-service-restaurant-industry Thanks Brad 
• James Hamilton on libra-economics-of-facebooks-cryptocurrency
• John Hawkins on facebooks-libra-plan-talk-of-the-demise-of-central-banks-is-greatly-exaggerated
• Ernest Foo on the-lowdown-on-libra-what-consumers-need-to-know-about-facebooks-new-cryptocurrency
• Nick Rowe on alpha-beta-and-the-libra-twist
• Alex Reilly on peter-dutton-is-whipping-up-fear-on-the-medevac-law-but-it-defies-logic-and-compassion
• John Edwards on averting-global-calamity-trump-and-xi-g20
• Noah Smith on welcome-to-the-age-of-surveillance-capitalism
• Tony Walker on trade-war-tensions-sky-high-as-trump-and-xi-prepare-to-meet-at-the-g20
• Cathal Guiomard on are-lower-airport-charges-consistent-with-a-larger-investment-budget-actually-under-exceptional-demand-growth-theyre-unavoidable
• Macro mania on the-phillips-curve-in-recession-and-recovery
• the conversable economist on the-shifting-wealth-of-nations-thoughts-Argentina-and-socialism, managing-alligators-and-kangaroos-with-market-incentives
• Tyler Cowen on will-price-transparency-in-health-care-markets-work

General

• Neil Selwyn on banning-mobile-phones-in-schools-beneficial-or-risky-heres-what-the-evidence-says
• Tim Van Gelder on bellingcats-report-on-mh17-shows-citizens-can-and-will-do-intelligence-work
• Michelle Smith on how-19th-century-ideas-influenced-todays-attitudes-to-womens-beauty

Climate

• Skeptical Science on new-research-this-week
• Real Climate on absence-and-evidence

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• how-much-is-your-vote-worth
• freud-expert-also-korea-expert
• how-to-think-about-reported-life-hacks
• a-supposedly-fun-thing-i-definitely-wont-be-repeating-a-pride-post
• and-if-we-really-want-to-get-real-lets-be-open-to-the-possibility-that-the-effect-is-positive-for-some-people-in-some-scenarios-and-negative-for-other-people-in-other-scenarios-and-that-in-the-e
• we-should-be-open-minded-but-not-selectively-open-minded
• another-regression-discontinuity-disaster-and-what-can-we-learn-from-it
• the-garden-of-603979752-forking-paths
• racism-is-a-framework-not-a-theor
• all-i-need-is-time-a-moment-that-is-mine-while-im-in-between
• xian on efficient-mcmc-sampling
• Eran Raviv on distribution-sample-maximum
• Kaiser Fung on inside-the-black-box-analyzing-observational-data

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• consulting-can-be-fun
• social-butterflies

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + bookreviews)

• cartographical-and-ethical-literacy
• Phil Price on book-review-good-to-go-by-christine-aschwanden

Vox Wonk

• trade-wars-global-value-chain-era
• standing-shoulders-science
• investors-diversification-rules-are-even-simpler-we-thought
• distance-learning-higher-education
• socially-optimal-labour-share-income
• individual-consequences-occupational-decline
• supply-chain-linkages-and-financial-markets
• financial-crises-and-dynamics-financial-de-liberalisation
• impact-judicial-elections-criminal-sentencing
• monetary-policy-and-money-market-funds
• eu-s-insolvency-reform
• brexit-impacts-and-prospects
• price-and-wage-setting-when-accurate-decisions-are-costly
• inflation-and-exchange-rate-targeting-challenges-under-fiscal-dominance
• eastern-europe-s-adjustment-tale

There are too many Democrat Presidential candidates

Before we talk about the huge number of presidential candidates perhaps we should ask ourselves what sort of person could beat Donald Trump?

We should remember he is a minority president! He also is ignorant . bombastic and possesses little concentration.
This means a policy wonk who concentrates on being a policy wonk would certainly show up Trump as a president who does not know or understand important policy positions. Something that mysteriously policy wonk Hillary Clinton did not attempt to do
now when you have a myriad of candidates will you get this? If the previous republican primary season is any guide no. The Candidate who won had few policies but plenty of one-liners.
I am at a loss why candidates who have no chance of winning  are allowed to participate in the debates.

I should also comment on Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.

Joe Biden has a poor record in primaries and is by no means a policy wonk. Bringing civility back to the presidency won't work. Just remember he is even older than Trump as well and we can see how age is affecting trump now!

Bernie sanders had the advantage of being really different and you could vote for him knowing you could stay pure because you knew he would not be the  candidate.

This time democrat voters know they have a real chance of tossing out Trump PROVIDED they pick the right candidate.

If they do not winnow out the large number of candidates they could well help in re-electing Donald Trump

A couple of solutions to Australia's problem

Nothing like a bottle of red wine to solve problems so let's go.

Economy
The economy is weakening and monetary policy is clearly not up to the task and you really do not want wholesale rates to fall further given what would occur to retail interest rates.
So use Infrastructure Australia's list of prioritised projects to grease the wheels of the economy. It gives a short term stimulus and a medium term boost to productivity. given how low bond  yields are you would be a dope not to do this

Climate
Working on a the assumption you cannot unscramble an egg we must rule our nationalising the electricity market.. so put a price on carbon so we internalise the social costs of carbon to the country. This allows the market to determine the solution. ( it will be renewables).

Adopt the EU policy on car emissions. This would reduce costs to car manufacturers exporting to Australia and reduce car emissions at the same time. A win/win 

Water
 Put a price on water for commercial use and let the market determine which industries will flourish and which will wither. Use recycling water for public use to insure against drought.



There easy peezy

Israel Folau and Go fund me

Yesterday the site go fund me pulled Israel Folau 'page' which would have helped him to fund his legal fight against Christian persecutors  Rugby Australia.
( Clearly Folau was saying to Rugby Australia I am willing to go as far as the High court on this matter as he stated he wanted to get $3m.) The Australian Christian Lobby has come to the rescue  however

go fund me alleged Folau's site was against their rules yer Sarah Hanson young even now is pulling in money for her legal case against the bald former NSW senator. what is the difference you ask. Well nothing. you fund me have been exposed a bald faced liars and hypocrites of the highest order.

Let us go back a touch can we.. Can some-one please point out when Folau made his 'homophobic' comments please.  Telling a homosexual who is engaged in sexual; activity they will go to hell if they do not repent is no more homophobic that saying the same thing to a heterosexual  who is engaged in either fornication or adultery!! Is that adulterophobis??
That statement is fact as it is in the bible both old and new testaments. Have we now reached the point that people will now label the bible as hate speech?

I think we should also point out Rugby Australia, the NRL and countless of media people keep on saying Folau said something against inclusion in rugby and their diversity policy.

Evidence please.

What we have here is 'tolerant' people are clearly very intolerant. We need a clear decision on Folau's case so Christians know whether paraphrasing a bible passage is a valid reason to sack a person.

Whoopsy I should have added gofund me take a lucrative slice of the action of anyone who uses their site. Indeed if you do not do your homework they take 10% although not in Folau's instance.

Book Review: John Kennedy An Unfinished Life

This book written by Robert Dallek is easily the best biography of anyone I have read.
I felt like I was part of his life whilst reading this book.
The medical research is quite extraordinary and it is wonder Kennedy could do anything let alone be a confident president.
I also knew of his womanising and philandering but still wasn't prepared for just how bad he was in this regard. He was very lucky he lived in an era reporters mostly thought this was a private matter.

We get to know he had a great intellectual mind when he wanted to apply it.Other people did not ghost write his books for example.

He was a good politician in that he learnt from his mistakes and he knew which people should be in what positions. He certainly wasn't the closet liberal ( in the US sense ) a lot of people thought he was.
What I found fascinating was how slow he went on domestic issues always believing race issues was a long game.

Do yourself a favour and read the book.

Around the Traps 21/6/19

It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on governing-well-or-just-slowly-making-us-poorer, a-nz-central-banker-speaks, can-anything-good-come-out-of-the-anz, makhlouf-on-public-debt, on the ANZ affair, vapid-slogans-and-other-top-level-public-sector-vices, more-data-on-our-feeble-economic-performance
• Ross Gittins on economic-reform-is-stalled-until-politicians-get-back-our-trust
• Kevin Bonham on seat-betting-as-bad-as-anything-else-at-predicting-the-2019-election, senate-reform-performance-review-2019
• Renew Economy on batteries-the-winner-as-5-minute-rule-promises-to-end-gas-market-gaming, the-10gw-solar-vision-that-could-turn-northern-territory-into-economic-powerhouse, cheap-wind-and-solar-and-people-powered-revolution-to-kick-out-coal
• Rodney Stewart et al on theres-a-looming-waste-crisis-from-australias-solar-energy-boom
• Adrian Beaumont on final-2019-election-results-education-divide-explains-the-coalitions-upset-victory
• Stephen Kirchner on below-zero-is-reverse-how-the-reserve-bank-would-make-quantitative-easing-work
• Jane McAdam on secrecy-over-paladins-423-million-contract-highlights-our-broken-refugee-system
• Dennis Muller on four-laws-that-need-urgent-reform-to-protect-both-national-security-and-press-freedom
• Mark the ballot on further-polling-reflections
• Renew economy on cheap-wind-and-solar-and-people-powered-revolution-to-kick-out-coal
• Frank Jotzo and Salin Mazouz on australias-energy-exports-increase-global-greenhouse-emissions-not-decrease-them
• Charles East and John Lee on avoiding-the-china-trap-how-australia-and-the-us-can-remain-close-despite-the-threat
• Brendan Coates on myth-busted-boosting-super-would-cost-the-budget-more-than-it-saved-on-age-pensions
• Geoff Hammer on buck-passing-on-apartment-building-safety-leaves-residents-at-risk
• Nick Gruen on if-your-problem-is-darkness-its-better-to-light-one-quarter-of-a-candle-than-to-light-any-more-of-a-candle-apparently, comparing-the-census-to-alternative-data-or-information-what-is-the-right-counterfactual
• The Kouk on it-s-time-to-end-the-strong-economy-propaganda

Northern America

• Brad De Long on recent-macroeconomic-history-through-the-lens-of-four-key-components-of-aggregate-demand
• Tim Duy on still-less-transitory-than-persistent , stage-set-for-a-dovish-shiftThanks Mark
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-tenth-birthday-of-the-june-2009-recovery
• Promarket on the-decline-of-american-journalism-is-an-antitrust-problem Thanks Mark
• Brad Setser on three-recommended-changes-us-currency-policy Thanks Mark 
• Larry Hatheway on america-weak-productivity-growth-jobs-wages
• Adam Kotsko on the-political-theology-of-trump Thanks Brad 
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-may-housing-starts
• the conversable economist on the-economic-value-of-household-production-1965 to 2017
• Ricardian Ambivalence on fed-set-for-100bps-starting-with-50-in-july
• Nate Silver on our-best-tool-for-predicting-midterm-elections-works-in-presidential-years-too

Europe

• Mainly Macro on bill-mitchells-fantasy-about-labours-fiscal-rule, for-too-many-conservatives-there-is-no-spoon
• stumbling and mumbling on new-labour-success-and-failure

Asia

• Daniel Flitton on oman-credibility-gulf-will-test-white-house
• Barkley Rosser on the-north-korea-food-shortage-deepens
• Caitlin Byrne on pressure-builds-with-more-protests-in-hong-kong-but-whats-the-end-game
• Ben Bland on hong-kong-climbdown-eases-external-pressures-china
• Alvin Cheung on deeper-malaise-hong-kongs-civil-service
• Aarti Bettigeri on bad-news-press-freedom-india
• Bob Bowker on morsi-s-fate-reminder-power-realities-egypt
• Rodger Shanahan on limits-unilateral-action-against-iran
• noahopinion on the-middle-eastern-thirty-years-war

Wonk

• Roger Farmer on national-treasuries-social-care-funds
• Tim Harford on the-doris-day-effect-when-obstacles-help-us
• Barkley Rosser on learning-origin-of-duality
• John Quiggin on can-globalization-be-reversed-part-ii-migration
• the conversable economist on mortality-rate-of-children-over-last-two-millennia
• scepticlawyer on how-to-play-intersectionality
• Cecchetti and Schoenholtz on the-brave-new-world-of-monetary-policy-operations Thanks Mark 
• Tony Walker on us-iran-conflict-escalates-again-raising-the-threat-of-another-war-in-the-middle-east
• Jeffrey Wilson on are-we-ready-rare-earths-trade-war
• coppolla comment on the-troubles-of-kier
• Barkley Rosser on will-libra-destroy-cryptocurrenciees-or-vica versa

General

• Stanley Shanapinda on how-a-cyber-attack-hampered-hong-kong-protesters
• Corey Bradshaw et al on an-incredible-journey-the-first-people-to-arrive-in-australia-came-in-large-numbers-and-on-purpose

Climate

• David Appell on china-has-twice-environmental-taxes-cp
• Rabbett run on every-year-after-2014-will-be-warmer-than-every-year-before-2014
• skaeptical Science on ocean advocates are increasingly alarmed about climate change
• Moyhu on giss-may-global-down-011-from-april
• and Then Theres Physics on kooninisms
• the guardian on arctic-permafrost-canada-science-climate-crisis
• the conversable economist on is-hydrogen-storage-and-carrying-technology-for-carbon-free-energy

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• algorithmic-bias-and-social-bias
• were-done-with-our-applied-regression-final-exam-and-solution-to-question-15
• the-publication-asymmetry-what-happens-if-the-new-england-journal-of-medicine-publishes-something-that-you-think-is-wrong
• causal-inference-i-recommend-the-classical-approach-an-observational-study-is-understood-in-reference-to-a-hypothetical-controlled-experiment
• random-patterns-in-data-yield-random-conclusions
• harvard-dude-calls-us-online-trolls
• the-writer-who-confesses-that-he-is-not-good-at-attention-to-detail-is-like-a-pianist-who-admits-to-being-tone-deaf
• how-to-simulate-an-instrumental-variables-problem
• Mayo on the-2019-asa-guide-to-p-values-and-statistical-significance-dont-say-what-you-dont-mean-some-recommendations
• statschat on summary-offences
• Kaiser Fung on college-board-adversity-score-controversy-its-an-argument-over-all-else-being-equal

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• 2019-edition-of-inomics-handbook

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• trains-and-other-illth
• digital-verbiage
• Economic Principals on summer reading
• Tyler Cowen on the-great-successor, what-ive-been-reading
• Nazadin Zadaeh-Cummings on book-review-great-successor

Vox Wonk

• the-case-for-market-based-stress-tests
• human-development-age-globalisation
• principles-industrial-policy
• euro-area-budget-rules-spending-must-avoid-pro-cyclicality-trap
• what-option-prices-tell-us-about-ecb-s-unconventional-monetary-policies
• eu-competition-policy-should-not-be-sacrificed-trade-policy-should-be-strengthened
• risk-sharing-plus-market-discipline-new-paradigm-euro-area-reform-debate
• quantifying-impact-leverage-ratio-regulation-dollar-basis
• like-it-or-not-online-platforms-and-productivity
• coming-out-aids-institutions-and-cultural-change
• trade-wars-global-value-chain-era