Around the Traps 1/3/18

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie, Aussie, Aussie, Oy,Oy,Oy

• Adrian Beaumont on 2001-polls-in-review-september-11-influenced-election-outcome-far-more-than-tampa-incident
• Brain Feeney on rethinking-traffic-congestion-to-make-our-cities-more-like-the-places-we-want-them-to-be
• Mark Evans on trust-in-politicians-and-government-is-at-an-all-time-low-the-next-government-must-work-to-fix-that
• Sarah Percy on paladin-manus-and-private-security-treacherous-history
• Croaking Cassandra on more-on-bank-capital-proposals, reading-the-twg-report, not-worth-the-insurance-premium, safer-banks-poorer-society, pondering-localism
• Warren Hogan on australias-populist-moment-has-arrived
• James Hunt on early-sowing-can-help-save-australias-wheat-from-climate-change
• Ian McKenzie on the-governments-2bn-climate-fund-a-rebadged-rehash-of-old-mistakes
• Liz Allen on solving-the-population-problem-through-policy
• Ricardian Ambivalence onaustralias-household-cash-hole, the-household-credit-crunch
• Ben Madden and Nick Florin on only-half-of-packaging-waste-is-recycled-heres-how-to-do-better
• Stephen Duckett on is-it-time-to-ditch-the-private-health-insurance-rebate-its-a-question-labor-cant-ignore
• Greg Jericho on one-of-the-key-sectors-for-job-growth-looks-to-be-slowing-drastically
• Ross Gittins on top-economy-manager-wants-you-to-get-bigger-pay-rises
• David Hamer on how-an-appeal-could-uphold-or-overturn-george-pells-conviction
• David Jones et al on 2018-19-was-australias-hottest-summer-on-record-with-a-warm-autumn-likely-too
• Dennis Muller on ita-buttroses-appointment-as-new-abc-chair-a-promising-step-in-the-right-direction
• Sophie Vorrath on how-solar-saved-the-day-and-coal-wilted-in-australias-record-heatwaves

Northern America

• Livio De Matteo on the-federal-debt-of-the-united-states-1791-to-2018-a-presidential-ranking
• Simon Potter on models only get you so far
• Neil Irwin on how-america-learned-to-stop-worrying-and-love-deficits-and-debt
• Zach Beauchamp on michael-cohen-testimony-live-republicans
• Dara Lind on cohen-hearing-trump-racist-comments
• Andrew Prokop on michael-cohen-testimony-mueller-russia
• David Graham on michael-cohen-testifies-congress-about-trump
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-bold-ideas-are-not-always-better-than-old-ideas
• Alex Ward on trump-north-korea-deal-fail-kim-sanctions
• noahopinion on a-proposal-for-alternative-green-new-deal
• Brad De Long on yes-the-feds-target-is-now-too-high-why-do-you-ask
• The Conversable Economist on opioid-crisis

Europe

• stumbling and mumbling on missing-the-elephant-in-the-room, brexit-as-symptom
• Mainly Macro on we-need-political-party-that-is-tough-on-the-causes-of-brexit
• Marcu Osterman  et al on do-the-fiscal-effects-of-eu-migrants-vary-across-european-countries-with-different-welfare-states-and-labour-market-institutions Thanks Peter Whiteford

Asia

• Barkley Rosser on netanyahu-sinking
• the conversable economist on chinas-high-savings-rate
• Susan Hutchinson on pressure-curb-arms-sales-saudi-arabia
• Trinh Le on why-north-korea-and-vietnam-can-benefit-hanoi-summit
• Sita Bali on kashmir-india-and-pakistans-escalating-conflict-will-benefit-narendra-modi-ahead-of-elections
• David Brewster on india-pakistan-shadow-dancing-himalayas
• Benjamin Habib on chasing-the-denuclearisation-fantasy-the-us-north-korea-summit-ends-abruptly-in-hanoi
• Priya Chacko on intrusion-domestic-politics-kashmir-tensions
• Nic Bisley on kim-trump-20-three-observations
• Mahmoud Pargoo on how-assad-s-tehran-trip-exposed-political-rifts-iran

Wonk

• FRBSF on inflation-stress-testing-phillips-curve Thanks Brad
• Matt Breuning on whats-the-point-of-modern-monetary-theory Thanks Brad
• promarket on anticompetitive-effects-low-interest-rates, road-to-digital-serfdom-surveillance-capitalism-visible-hand Thanks Mark
• Ben Benanke on evaluating-lower-for-longer-policies-temporary-price-level-targeting Thanks Mark
• Cecchetti and Schoenholtz on inflation-risks-and-inflation-expectations Thanks Mark
• Joseph Joyce on mars-descending-u-s-security-alliances-and-the-international-status-of-the-dollar
• Rodger Shanahan on behind-mujahid-there-is-a-mujahidi
• William Mulligan on when-political-leaders-choose-catastrophe-how-europe-walked-willingly-into-world-war-i
• Simon Cottee on what-media-wont-tell-you-about-isis
• the conversable economist on the-eternal-majority-against-way-things-are
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-do-deficits-matter-any-more
• Giovanni De Lieto on whats-worse-than-the-us-china-trade-war-a-grand-peace-bargain
• Croaking Cassandra on wages-and-productivity

General

• Tim Harford on blue-monday-pseudoscience-should-teach-us-to-be-more-curious, blue-monday-pseudoscience-should-teach-us-to-be-more-curious
• Coppolla Comment on a-lack-of-compassion
• Understanding Society on marxs-ideas-about-government Thanks Mark
• Simon Angus on how-long-before-we-break-the-two-hour-barrier-in-the-mens-marathon

Climate

• David Appell on january-temperatures, electricity-percentage-from-sustainables-unchanged
• Open Mind on arctic-sea-ice-the-denier-viewpoint
• Idiot Tracker on the-loss-of-diablo-canyon-and-fallacy-of-100%-renewable-replacement
• Real Climate on the-best-case-for-worst-case-scenarios

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• hmc-step-size-how-does-it-scale-with-dimension
• does-diet-soda-stop-cancer-two-yale-cancer-center-docs-have-diametrically-opposite-views
• dont-worry-the-post-will-be-coming-eventually
• evidence-distortion-in-clincial-trials
• light-privilege-skin-tone-stratification-in-health-among-african-americans
• statistical-significance-filtering-is-a-noise-amplifier
• good-news-researchers-respond-to-a-correction-by-acknowledging-it-and-not-trying-to-dodge-its-implications
• xian on how-a-hiring-quota-failed-or-not
• John Cook on the-point-at-infinity
• statschat on how-many-crashes-are-caused-by-alcohol
• Kaiser Fung on regulating-data-sharing-is-heating-up, is-ab-testing-that-scary

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• No Hesitations on big-data-for-21st-century-economic
• Marc Bellamare on elasticities and the inverse sine transformation

Dianne Coyle  (quirky + book reviews)

• what-counts
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading
• Stephen Grenville on book-review-winners-take-all

Vox Wonk

• reforms-love-them-long-term
• missing-english-middle-class-evidence-60-million-death-and-probate-records
• regulations-immigration-and-firms-offshoring-decisions
• heterogeneous-tax-sensitivity-firm-level-investments
• should-ecb-care-about-euro-s-global-role
• slow-recoveries-through-fiscal-austerity
• household-finance-landscape-emerging-economies
• how-develop-enough-european-ai-startups
• philip-lane-next-chief-economist-ecb
• macro-reasons-loath-protectionism
• ecb-conference-bridges-science-and-practice-monetary-policy
• effective-trade-costs-and-current-account
• household-indebtedness-did-not-weaken-us-monetary-transmission-post-crisis
• immigrant-networking
• china-syndrome-redux-new-results-global-labour-reallocation

Police behaving badly

Here are some examples of police behaving badly.

A person going home early in the morning after working a shift at night. There are no cars on the road. A police car stops the person who has allegedly not stopped at a stop sign. He did but not for the required time which is heavily argued about.

A person at Eastwood manages to cross a crossing where pedestrians walk across. They ignore the sign to walk in groups and there is a very large line of cars. A policecar stops this car as not all pedestrians had walked across the crossing..When it is pointed out to the policeman that if all car drivers too notice of that no-one would cross the crossing the policeman says it aint his problem.

A father is in the car allowing his son to drive the car on his learners plate. He sees a police car ahead with another car right near it. He tells his son to slow to 40 ks. When they pass the police car one policeman is booking the driver and the other has a radar out.

A person  parks at a servo. He rushes in to buy what he needs. He comes out and is confronted by a policeman. He is asked why he left the windows open and the doors  unlocked. He explains his situation but to no avail. He is fined well over $100.

Slow recoveries because of Austerity

I have written plenty of stuff on how austerity is very poor policy when confronted with a recession or even merely a slowing economy.
HERE is another short article on this process with a close look at technology.

Pell found guilty

We find out today George Pell was found guilty of sexual offences against two boys.

I am conflicted in this regard.
I am bound to accept the jury's decision.

I am at a loss to understand how this could occur after conducting mass when the room was not locked and there were plenty of people who could have simply walked in .
A person this brazen must have committed far more offences.

Yet for all this I did not hear as the Jury did all of the evidence provided.

The Catholic denomination has yet to recognise that paedophiles entered their  denomination because it was easy to commit sexual offences against children.

No person who has done this could ever be a minster et al. IF they repent they could be a member of said denomination. Alas Catholic theology is often is conflict with biblical theology/

update:
Here is Frank Brennan. thanks Steve from Brisvegas.

Having a night to think about this I have the same feeling as in the OJ Simpson case. What were the juries thinking about.

A couple of points of australian polity

I am feeling a little weary for some strange reason.

I now do not know any political staffers. some-one I know did run into one who works in NSW.
This staffer thinks the Libs are gone in the NSW state election and is looking to work in Canberra but thinks that will end in May!!

I notice Scott Morrison is attempting to use the phrase the canberra bubble to divert attention away from his troubles there.
The only problem with this is it can backfire on you. When the finance minister of all people books an overseas trip but does not pay for it because he forgets about it the punters know that person is living on a canberra bubble.
When normal people book a trip they get an e-mail straight away with the bill. If they do not pay it by a certain date. No trip at all.

They also know they could not get away from not being interviewed by the police on any matter.

Around the Traps 22/2/19

It is time yet again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ricardian Ambivalence on the-rbas-neutral-bias, better-than-it-looked
• Greg Jericho on counting-one-hours-work-a-week-doesnt-skew-the-employment-data, wages-are-growing-faster-than-inflation-but-thats-not-saying-much
• Brett Goodin on sailors-journals-shed-new-light-on-bennelong-a-man-misunderstood-by-history
• Brendan Coates on this-time-its-labor-and-the-greens-standing-in-the-way-of-cheaper-super
• Tom Sear on a-state-actor-has-targeted-australian-political-parties-but-that-shouldnt-surprise-us
• Ross Gittins on having-stuffed-up-deregulation-dont-stuff-up-re-regulation
• Nicky Ison on the-coalitions-big-stick-was-all-about-coal-and-a-big-waste-of-energy
• Croaking Cassandra on investmentthe-capital-stock-and-some-no-pretty-pictures, kiwibuild-the-reserve-bank-and-crowding-out, terms-and-conditions-surely, capital-gains-taxes-some-thoughts,working-hours
• The kouk onthis-is-the-main-driver-for-a-cash-rate-cut-and-it-ll-happen-soon
• Trevor Thornton on the-recycling-crisis-may-be-here-to-stay
• Chris Leishman on why-falling-house-prices-do-less-to-improve-affordability-than-you-might-think
• Kelsy Munro and Alex Oliver on polls-apart-how-australian-views-have-changed-on-boat-people
• Richard Dennis on cashed-up-retirees-getting-a-refund-for-tax-they-never-paid-weve-hit-peak-rort
• Andrew Beer on regional-australia-is-calling-the-shots-now-more-than-ever
• David Belgrave on huawei-or-the-highway-the-rising-costs-of-new-zealands-relationship-with-china
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-why-more-expensive-milk-wont-help-farmers-much
• Michael Jensen on weve-been-hacked-so-will-the-data-be-weaponised-to-influence-election-2019-heres-what-to-look-for
• Erwin Jackson on australian-headlines-are-designed-to-to-scare-people-into-not-acting-on-climate-change
• Giles Parkinson on cost-effective-clean-reliable-grid-you-can-have-it-all-says-zibelman,its-proof-coalition-endorses-murdochs-carbon-cut-apocalypse-beat-up

Northern America

• Jianna Smielek on rip-phillips-curve-the-fed-s-wonky-guidestar-may-be-dimming Thanks Brad
• Michelle Klieger on is-trump-playing-trade-war-checkers-while-xi-plays-chess Thanks Brad
• Mainly Macro on how-to-pay-for-green-new-deal
• the conversable economist on some-proposals-for-improving-work-wages-and skills-for-americans, sofr-replaces-libor
• stumbling and mumbling on the-irrelevant-independent-group
• Seam Willentz on kenneth-starr-hillary-clinton-presumed-guilty
• New Deal Democrat on wages-continued-to-improve-through-january
• Pedro Nikolaci Da costa on the-us-job-market-doesnt-feel-so-hot-despite-the-low-unemployment-rate Thanks Brad
• calculated risk on comments-on-january-existing-home-sales 
• Menzie Chinn on time-series-on-spreads-yield-curve-snapshots
• Alex Ward on north-korea-trump-kim-jong-un-vietnam-nuclear

Europe

• Richard Carr on labour-split-new-independent-group-of-mps-could-break-britains-political-deadlock
• Lawrence Freedman on how-did-united-kingdom-get-itself-such-political-mess
• Mainly Macro on the-new-party-lessons-labour-leadership-and-its-supporters-failed-to-learn
• Tyler Cowen on the-georgist-equilibrium-comes-to-greece

Asia

• Brad Setser on chinas-slowdown-and-world-econom Thanks Brad
• Fiona Broom on courting-change-malaysia
• Ian Hall on pulwama-terrorist-attack-modi-under-pressure
• the conversable economist on chinas-high-savings-rate

Wonk

• Nick Gruen on when-is-a-conversation-not-a-conversation-when-its-a-political-conversation, burnheim-on-gray-on-hayek
• Tim Harford on lessons-from-the-wreck-of-the-torrey-canyon
• Macromania on is-neo-fisherism-nuts
• Barkley Rosser on who-is-really-socialist
• the conversable economist on capitalism-with-scandinavian-characteristics, universal-basic-income-preliminary-results-from-the-finnish-experiment
• stumbling and mumbling on non-expiring-information, structure-vs-agency-in-economics
• Understanding Society on is-xerox-corporation-supervenient Thanks Mark
• Biaggo Bossone on unconventional-fiscal-policies Thanks Mark
• Economic Principals on making music together Thanks Mark
• Menzie Chinn on a-primer-on-exchange-rate-misalignment-updated
• Dirk Van Graver on esponding-cyber-attacks-resilience-and-transparency-key
• Tyler Cowen on venezuela-is-in-large-part-the-fault-of-socialism
• Jonathan Portes on nonsense-economics-the-rise-of-modern-monetary-theory Thanks Brad
• Peter Greste on press-freedom-under-attack-why-filipino-journalist-maria-ressas-arrest-should-matter-to-all-of-us
• and Then Theres Physics on survivor-bias

General

• Lisa Harvey-Smith on curious-kids-what-makes-a-shooting-star-fall
• Craig O'Neill on how-the-dinosaurs-went-extinct-asteroid-collision-triggered-potentially-deadly-volcanic-eruptions

Climate

• Steve Turton on how-climate-change-can-make-catastrophic-weather-systems-linger-for-longer
• Moyhu on giss-january-global-up-004-from-december
• and Then Theres Physics on only-connect
• Stochastic Trend on energy-efficiency-improvements-do-not-save-energy

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• update-on-that-study-of-p-hacking
• to-make-histograms-in-r
• i-believe-this-study-because-it-is-consistent-with-my-existing-beliefs
• news-release-from-the-jama-network
• statmodeling-retro
• kevin-lewis-has-a-surefire-idea-for-a-project-for-the-high-school-science-talent-search
• statschat on summer-polling
• xian on leave-bayes-factors-where-they-once-belonged
• John Cook on what-is-an-elliptic-curve

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• Econometric Sense on was-it-meant-to-be-or
• No Hesitations on berk-nash-equilibrium-and-pseudo-mle

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• state, market and continuity
• an-unpopular-confession
• noahopinion on book-review-revolt-of-public-by-martin-gurri

Vox wonk

• wellbeing-measurements-easterlin-s-paradox-and-new-growth-models
• why-asset-managers-create-subsidies-certain-firms
• taking-stock-household-innovations
• racial-inequality-infectious-disease-mortality-early-20th-century
• whys-and-wherefores-short-time-work
• leadership-driving-force-history
• euro-tale-20-years-priorities-going-forward
• public-and-private-marginal-product-capital
• brexit-and-irish-border-issue
• real-exchange-rates-economic-development
• economic-effects-density-synthesis
• central-bank-tone-moves-asset-prices
• monetary-policy-communications-and-household-inflation-expectations

Book Review John Curtin

Another book which I should have read before is the David Day biography of John Curtin.

Curtin is seen by most as one of our greatest Prime Ministers although war time leaders always have an advantage of others.

Curtin was a working class intellectual. He got this through his voracious reading.He also knew people of high intellects from whom he learnt as well.

Few people know he played and loved Aussie Rules and Cricket. On the few times he went to England he watched cricket. Unlike Menzies he needed the break as he pushed himself very hard.

He had a very strong work ethic. While clearly bot a christian I think it is likely he was a deist.

Like any political leader he had to ditch policies he previously championed as he wanted to win (and then maintain) Government.

He was not an alcoholic more a cheap drunk and got drunk when he had promised he would not drink went out of the public gaze.
He had many battles with Churchill, like Menzies before him, however unlike Churchill he did not hold grudges.
Finally his early death was tragic for a number of reasons. He worked far too hard and 'felt' the pain of possible mishaps more than others.
He clearly was a great leader. Neither Forde, Chifley nor Evatt were. At best we can say Forde was an able Deputy leader but hopeless acting leader. Chifley was a grand treasurer but lacked the political nous of Curtin as we saw in Bank Nationalisation.
If still leading Australia may have gotten the reconstruction it needed,

Hence the newly founded Liberal party won in 1949 when clearly they had no idea of what to do. Indeed from 1949-51 they were clearly much worse that Whitlam given the world economy.