Bathurst was a bewdy!!

I have been away for a few days as my youngest son played for Epping Boys High school in the Davidson shield. It is a competition where all high schools in NSW.
They played in the final against Figtree for comprehensive schools and won. Actually they won well.
They then played against Endeavour Sports high school who specialise in sport. They again won well.
The Captain hit two 70s and captained well. Yes my son played well as well.

Tuesday night was a merry time at the Family hotel in Bathurst and the boys had a hoot coming back in the bus on Wednesday after making history.

A fantastic two days.


Update:
No with quite few responsible parents , two teachers and a retired teacher who drove the bus no boy was drinking alcohol. No licenced premises is going to allow underage boys drink alcohol at their premises.

All the adults as well drank responsibly. I had one lite beer and a glass of red with my pasta.

Both my boys spent the night at Blayney with their sole remaining grandparent. Didima in bengali.

No radio except when we were driving and no internet. I had 65 personal e-emails when I go back home!! Aghh.

My youngest son actually rang in to 2GB and talked about an issue with Ben Fordham. It was about alleged racism at a day care centre. If you spoke english you did not get in. He pointed out dark skinned parents who spoke english would not be allowed whilst say a European who could not speak english could. Hence it was not about race but whether you could speak english.

Why are my sons listening to this station???

further update:

In both matches , first one at George1 and the last at the sportsground Epping lost the toss and batted. Despite the opposition believing they would roll them easily Epping hit just over 200 runs in 40 overs in both matches. They had them 3 or 4 down for around 70-80 runs at drinks 9 20 overs) and then finished both teams off to win reasonably easily.

Brad De Long in excellent ranting mood

I'm off to Bathurst as my youngest plays in the Davidson shield cup final.

However before that Brad De long has two fantastic rants.
The first one is i-see-john-cochrane-has-tried-to-make-an-april-fools-day-joke-of-sorts-about-obamacare. This is not only a great rant but has some highly valuable links. ( ricardo ambivalence must be squirming when he reads what Cochrane has written. )

The second one is more general why-were-economists-as-a-group-as-useless-over-2010-2014-as-over-1929-1935. There are again a number of  links which enriches the topic.

See you later

Around the Traps 31/3/17

It is time for Around the Traps again

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on labourgreen-budget-responsibility-rules , time-to-wind-up-the-nz-superannuation-fund , comparing-acc-investment-returns-to-nzsfs, fiscal-policy-in-defence-of-the-last-labour-government
• Ken Parish on is-scomo-a-bastard-for-cutting-the-territorys-gst-funding
• David Peetz on the-government-is-belatedly-backing-the-penalty-rates-cut-it-always-wanted
• Jiyoung song and Neil Cuthbert on what-happens-failed-asylum-seekers
• Jamie Alcock on houses-arent-more-unaffordable-for-first-home-buyers-but-they-are-riskier
• Mark the Graph on rental-inflation-rates
• David Walker on snowy-announcement
• Ross Gittins on company-tax-cut-has-not-so-dirty-little-secret , home-affordability-problem-caused-by-generational-conflict
• The Kouk on why-are-bill-shorten-and-labor-scared-to-run-on-the-economy , -why-an-interest-rate-cut-is-needed , what-s-behind-australia-s-sheer-dumb-luck
• Dylan McConnell on hazelwood-closure-what-it-means-for-electricity-prices-and-blackouts
• Liz Ritchie-Tyo on tracking-the-storm-the-science-behind-tropical-cyclone-debbie
• Greg Jericho on superannuation-default-fund-changes-political-industry-v-retail , does-earning-180000-make-you-rich-lets-not-pretend-about-whos-rich-and-whos-poor
• Paul Gardner-Stephen on how-to-keep-your-mobile-phone-connected-when-the-network-is-down
• Erik Ekland on hazelwood-power-station-from-modernist-icon-to-greenhouse-pariah
• Brian McNair on why-politicians-and-television-still-need-each-other
• Melanie Blanchette and Mark Lund on turning-hazelwoods-empty-coal-mine-into-a-lake-could-help-heal-mining-towns
• Bruce Mountain on comparing-australias-electricity-charges-to-other-countries-shows-why-competition-isnt-working

Northern America

• Harry Enten and Julie Azaria on the-two-cracks-in-the-republican-party
• Promarket on no-indication-trump-is-pro-competition , richard-posner-real-corruption-ownership-congress-richThanks Mark
• Tim Duy on markets-are-witnessing-a-yellen-fed-at-its-humblest Thanks Mark
• Mark Thoma gives us Kruggers on how-to-build-on-obamacare
• Calculated Risk on real-house-prices-and-price-to-rent-ratio-in-january
• Mike Konzal on four-lessons-from-the-health-care-repeal-collapse Thanks Brad
• Brad De Long on must-read-it-has-long-been-clear-to-me-that-the-last-thing-fred-hiatt-and-his-crew-at-the-_washington-post_-are-interest
• Mike Kimel on do-patents-lead-to-economic-growth , how-much-crime-do-illegal-immigrants-commit
• Robert Waldmann on blinded-by-the-right-literally
• Belle Waring on whos-crying-now-i-mean-other-than-paul-ryan
• James Hamilton on how-the-federal-reserve-controls-interest-rates 
• Cecchetti and Schoenholtz on the-feds-successful-tightening Thanks Mark
• Ben Casselman on trumps-plan-wont-reverse-coals-decline
• Timothy Taylor on in-order-that-they-might-rest-their-arguments-on-facts
• Aaron Bycoffe on trump-is-beating-previous-presidents-at-being-unpopular
• Dougal Robinson on trump-s-legislative-headaches-no-good-predictable-foreign-policy
• Justin Fox on the-jobs-statistics-trump-should-be-worried-about
• Liberty economics on qe-frictions-could-banks-have-favored-refinancing-over-new-purchase-borrowing Thanks Mark
• Ross Douthat on is-obamacare-a-lifesaver Thanks Brad
• Douglas Campbell on raise-rates-to-raise-inflation Thanks Mark
• Adam Davidson on how-trump-could-still-undermine-obamacare Thanks Mark 
• Macroblog on bad-debt-bad-for-your-health Thanks Mark
• Jacob Hacker and Paul Pierson on republicans-health-care-tax-cuts-rich-ryan-future-gop Thanks Brad

Europe

• Bruno Tertrais on after-brexit-and-trump-french-election-surprises
• Simon Wren-Lewis on one-vote-that-rules-them-all , lessons-from-brexit
• Coppolla comment on barnier-and-tantalus-game
• David Warsh on money that poured into russia Thanks Mark
• Ula Staiger on brexit-negotiations-what-does-europe-want
• Richard Whitman on article-50-triggered-but-is-a-brexit-deal-really-possible-in-two-years
• stumbling and mumbling on newt-troubles
• John Cassidy on theresa-mays-empty-brexit-promises Thanks Brad
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-war-gaming-the-economic-fallout-from-brexit
• Simon Heffer on post-brexit-will-kingdom-stay-united
• Menzie Chinn on how-well-is-uk-business-fixed-investment-holding-up-in-the-brexit-era

Asia

• Promarket on netanyahu-trump-nixon-use-antitrust-tame-media Thanks Mark
• Roger Shanahan on syrian-safe-zones-planning-nightmare
• Peter Layton on advancing-china-s-south-china-sea-dominance
• Sidney Jones on caliphate-unlikely-bishop-still-right-focus-southern-philippines
• Donna Weeks on neo-nationalist-crack-abe-s-grand-strategy
• Andrew Seith on myanmar-and-aung-san-resurrection-icon
• John Lee on new-chinese-diaspora

Wonk

• Simon Wren-Lewis on on-criticising-existence-of-mainstream-economics , /misrepresenting-academic-economists
• Brad De Long on the-need-for-a-reformation-of-authority-and-hierarchy-among-economists-in-the-public-sphere
• Peter Dorman on economics-part-of-rot-part-of-treatment
• Douglas Campbell on corporations-in-age-of-inequality Thanks Mark
• Kevin O'Rourke on does-trade-policy-only-have-a-small-impact-on-trade-flows-interwar-evidence , gambling
• Sandwichman on says-other-law-misery-is-inseparable-companion-of-luxury
• long and variable on re-specifying-the-inflation-target-for-low-real-interest-rates
• Timothy Taylor on global-productivity-growth-diminishing-convergance , global-investment-spending-piece-of-the-puzzle , how-between-firm-inequality-drives-economic-and-social-inequality
• pseudoerasmas on ancient-greece-economic-growth
• Nick Rowe on old-keynesian-multipliers-cross-section-and-time-series
• stumbling and  mumbling on keynes-flaws
• Branko Milanovic on /the-welfare-state-in-age-of-gloabalisation Thanks Mark
• freemarket on role-antitrust-free-market-economy Thanks Mark
• Brad De Long on must-read-back-in-1992-larry-summers-and-i-warned-that-even-with-business-cycles-of-the-size-seen-in-the-great-moderation
• William Magnuson on is-brexit-the-beginning-of-the-end-for-international-cooperation
• Croaking Casandra on do-big-countries-get-richer-or-more-productive-faster , natural-resources-norway-and-the-uk
• Noah Smith on robuts-takin-jerbs
• Bank Underground on does-productivity-drive-wages-evidence-from-sectoral-data Thanks Mark

General

• David Coward on something-big-exploded-in-a-galaxy-far-far-away-what-was-it
• John Gooding on content-control-reckoning-tech-giants
• Astri Suhrke on new-refugee-compact-will-struggle-live-lofty-rhetoric
• David Glasner on a-tale-of-three-posts

Climate

• Whats up with that Watts et al on 3-behind-curtain-of-bates-facade
• and Then Theres Physics on bias-in-science , hearing-about-climate-science-and-the-scientific-method
• Greg Laden on global-warming-has-and-will-continue-to-cause-extreme-weather-new-research
• Rabett run on gravity-greenhouse-effect-and-surface-temperature
• Regblog on on-achieving-climate-change-goals-without-clean-power-plan

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• lets-accept-idea-treatment-effects-vary-not-something-special-just-matter-course
• dead-wire
• association-psychological-pseudoscience
• crack-shot
• hideout
• aggregate-age-adjusted-trends-death-rates-non-hispanic-whites-minorities-u-s
• prediction-model-fleet-management
• Noah Smith on the-blogs-vs-case-deaton
• Gene Callahan on the-limits-of-bayesian-inference Thanks Jim Rose
• Kaiser Fung on collaboration-with-new-york-public-library , confused-by-machines-or-spooked-by-the-machine-makers

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• a-journal-of-insignificant-economic-results
• in-praise-of-two-giants-of-econometrics
• Marc Bellamare on how should econometrics be taught
• Winnifred Louis and Cassandra Chapman on the-seven-deadly-sins-of-statistical-misinterpretation-and-how-to-avoid-them
• No Hesitations on text-as-data

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tim Harford on undercover-friday
• Greg Laden on arduino-playground-book-review-of-a-serious-maker-book
• doverbeach on daily-reading-2 , daily-reading-3, weekend-reading-35

Vox Wonk

• productivity-slowdown-s-dirty-secret-growing-performance-gap
• immigrants-and-innovation-us-history
• aftershocks-monetary-unification-hysteresis-financial-twist
• fed-s-price-stability-achievement
• economic-resilience-growth-and-economic-fragility-trade
• economic-growth-us-tale-two-countries
• post-brexit-trade-and-development-policy
• informational-constraints-antipoverty-programmes
• introducing-new-vox-series-cepr-flashbacks-insights-past-reports
• sacrificing-consumption-mitigate-catastrophic-risks
• effect-banning-junk-food-advertising
• israels-positive-immigration-story
• health-human-capital-and-domestic-violence
• global-repercussions-us-tight-oil-boom

A pot pourri of articles

Reading last night I realised there was quite a few different articles which were interesting on different topics.

Here are some:

• Aaron Bycoffe on trump-is-beating-previous-presidents-at-being-unpopular
• stumbling and mumbling on martin-mcguinness-the-nature-of-politics , keynes-flaws
• Winnifred Lewis and Cassandra Chapman on the-seven-deadly-sins-of-statistical-misinterpretation-and-how-to-avoid-them
• Dylan McConnell on hazelwood-closure-what-it-means-for-electricity-prices-and-blackouts ( only for us Aussies)
• Greg Laden on global-warming-has-and-will-continue-to-cause-extreme-weather-new-research
• Alexis Grigorief et al on information-changes-attitudes-towards-immigrants

They will be all on Around the Traps on Friday.

A little bit on Econometrics

If you are like me and studied economics at University then you would have done a few units in econometrics.
I remember during my Masters course I got Les Johnson , the american statistics lecturer at Macquarie University at the time. to provide me with a bunch of 'pinko' econometric papers.

We all had to talk about the papers we read, the importance of the papers, the significance etc. For anyone  interested the papers in the 'pink' journals were good. I even read one from Evan Jones who was part of the political economy lot at Sydney University!

Anyway these days I keep up to  date on the date by reading Genial Dave Giles blog.
This blog is a must read!

So of late it was interesting to read three articles on econometrics and how to use/teach it.

The oldest is by Carola Binder.
the next is by the highly authoritative Francis Diebold
the last by the inimitable Marc Bellamare


Given genial dave agrees with Francis I am going that way but it is very interesting if not somewhat arcane!

Will the Socceroos make it to Russia?

Australia beat the UAE 2-0 in a spiteful match in Sydney.

We did not leak as much at the back ( Sainbury?) as usual but still missed chances that should be put away up front.
The more I think about it the more The Socceroos and the Wanderers are alike. Both are leaky at the back and both teams create a lot of chances but miss simple goal chances.
I am genuinely wondering whether we will make it to the World Cup.

We have no great players as in 2006. We have very few whom play in the Premier League, La Liga, The Bundesliga or Serie A.

This means we have to rely on team work and spirit to get through. although the spirit is there the teamwork which was there in abundance during the Asian cup is only there every so often. We are drawing games we should easily win.

The next game against Saudia Arabia will the the bellwether. If we play our best we will win and go on to Russia. if we lose Uh Oh

Two things I should have talked about.
Why are we so lost on through balls?
Why do we give the ball away so often?

It is mystifying. The answer could be lack of class

The Productivity puzzle

Productivity has fallen almost everywhere around the world.

 The ever conversable Timothy Taylor examiner this in lieu of a talk by  Andy Haldane.

 Dan Andrews et al  also examine this with a short paper at Vox wonk as I call it.

Plenty of food for thought here. We are still discussing this in Australia and reasons why productivity has fallen in recent times.