Ross Gittins on fire

Ross has been away for a while but in his first article he gets his teeth into Christian Porter's stupid musings.

Its all HERE

Bob Day. what the hell is happening?

I note the current furore about Bob Day's election as Senator. what does it mean.

I dunno but these two chappies do.

1) Kevin Bonham

2) Antony Green

lets add Anne Twomey 

Politics as farce

Two great examples of politics descending into farce.

Firstly in Australia we have proposed legislation windy rhetoric that current refugees at Mannus and Nauru will NEVER be allowed in Australia. They are worried about them coming to Australia via a third country like New Zealand or Canada.

Let me get this right. A refugee settles in New Zealand or Canad has a good future but then decides he might migrate or even travel to Australia. This thinking is so stupid it could come from Steve Kates.
These people would like to live in a first world country so they will not be persecuted like they were in their home country. They are allowed to live in New Zealand or Canada but no they simply want to live in Australia. WHY? Housing affordability in much worse in Australia for example. Then of course can you imagine what the 'people smugglers' would be saying now. Hey get on a boat and wait maybe ten years maybe more and you can live in Australia. Wonderfully attractive eh!
I should add this is clearly a sop to One Nation to get votes through the Senate, Hanson has said Australia should have NO refugees!

Secondly in the United States we have the FBI ignoring the very protocols it is supposed to  work by by issuing a statement saying they are looking at e-mails at a computer of a former congressman.They do not even know what is in the e-mails.
Of all the explanations i have heard I think Carl Bernstein of 'Watergate' fame has it best. James Comey is simply covering his 'arse'. This would show he is in fact a bureaucrat not a FBI director.

Both the above examples is why people are so peeved with politics at present.

Around the Traps 28/10/16

it is time for Around the Traps again

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• John Quiggin on competition-and-human-services-dont-mix , a-tribute-to-fred-gruen , the-magic-pudding-yet-again
• Marion Terrill on spectacular-cost-blowouts-show-need-to-keep-governments-honest-on-transport
• Croaking Cassandra on eden-park-advertisers-and-the-nz-tradables-sector , a-victoria-university-professor-on-new-zealand-immigration , the-reserve-bank-interest-rate-projections , housing-reform-the-corn-laws-and-possibilities-for-new-zealand
• Mark the Ballot on early-voters-favour-coalition
• Greg Jericho on interest-rates-are-at-record-lows-dont-expect-them-to-go-any-lower , why-government-debt-isnt-the-biggest-threat-to-australias-credit-rating , how-the-unemployment-rate-hides-what-is-happening-in-the-economy , reserve-bank-could-justify-a-cut-on-cup-day-but-is-there-any-point
• John Daley et al on solutions-beyond-supply-to-the-housing-affordability-problem
• Gabrielle Appleby on role-of-solicitor-general-has-been-damaged-and-the-government-must-work-to-fix-it
• Nick Gruen on investor-state-dispute-settlement
• Helen Hodgson on paid-parental-leave-plan-ignores-economics-of-well-functioning-families
• The Kouk on peter-costello-and-the-future-fund-fiddle
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-turnbull-slide-continues
• Andrew Elder on politics-beyond-canberra
• Robert Manne on how-we-came-to-be-so-cruel-to-asylum-seekers
• various on removal-of-double-dipping-from-parental-leave-may-impact-mothers-health
• Gary Mortimer on phantom-brands-haunting-our-supermarket-shelves-as-home-brand-in-disguise
• David Beirman on dreamworld-owner-ardent-leisure-needs-a-lesson-in-managing-a-crisis

Northern America

• Mark Thoma gives us Kruggers on debt-diversion-distraction
• Nate Silver on election-update-trump-may-depress-republican-turnout-spelling-disaster-for-the-gop , election-update-the-polls-disagree-and-thats-ok
• Sam Wang on politics-polls-16-the-real-rigged-voting, why-do-the-polls-seem-so-variable-this-week
• Frances Woolley on why-is-it-so-hard-to-know-the-relationship-between-immigration-and-economic-performance
• Calculated Risk on real-prices-and-price-to-rent-ratio-in-august, a-few-comments-on-september-new-home-sales
• John Robertson on is-wage-growth-accelerating Thanks Mark
• Narayana Kocherlakota on the-u-s-job-recovery-is-a-global-laggard , how-italy-s-job-market-beats-the-u-sThanks Mark
• Timothy Taylor on some-snapshots-of-incarceration-and-prisoner-reentry , the-coleman-report-n-equal-educational-opportunity-50-years-later
• Justin Fox on manufacturing-s-productivity-myth Thanks Mark
• Dietrich Vollrath on productivity
• Simon Butt on jessica-wongso-found-guilty-in-cyanide-coffee-case-but-she-may-not-yet-have-had-a-fair-trial
• Pat McConnell on asic-report-highlights-a-deep-culture-problem-in-australias-banks
• Menzie Chinn on recession-watch-october-2016
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-the-fed-and-inequality
• James Hamilton on q3-gdp

Europe

• David Wells on Why-Europe-should-consider-a-foreign-fighter-amnesty-scheme
• Simon Wren-Lewis on helping-broadcast-media-be-informative
• Daniel Woker on Trumpism-in-Europe
• Chris Dillow on blind-to-costs , whose-racism
• Twenty cent Paradigm on time-for-sterling-crisis Thanks Mark

Asia

• Patrick Jory on Thailands-year-of-living-dangerously
• Menzie Chinn on gaining-currency-the-rise-of-the-renminbi
• Brad Setser on asias-persistent-savings-glut Thanks Mark 
• Bruce McKern on made-in-china-three-ways-chinese-business-has-evolved-from-imitation-to-innovation
• Roger Shanahan on no-fly-zone-yemen

Wonk

• Dani Rodrik on how-to-tell-apart-trade-agreements-that-undermine-democratic-principles-from-those-that-dont
• Barry Eichengreen on  rethinking-capital-controls Thanks Mark
• Mike Kimel on how does diversity affect economic growth
• Coppolla comment on raising-interest-rates-is-not-that-easy
• Timothy Taylor on what-else-can-central-banks-do , is-foreign-direct-investment-mostly-portfolio-flows-in-disguise
• Croaking Cassandra on experts-harness-them-dont-let-them-set-the-course , imf-advocacy-for-immigration-some-caveats
• Brad De Long on why-did-keynes-write-in-the-long-run-we-are-all-dead
• IMFDirect on migrants-bring-economic-benefits-for-advanced-economies Thanks Mark
• Noah Smith on mergers-raise-prices-not-efficiency , want-more-startups-build-a-better-safety-net
• Francesco Saraceno on monetary-policy-credibility-2-0
• Nick Bunker on new-research-on-market-power-and-productivity Thanks Mark
• Daniel Little on rational-choice-institutionalism Thanks Mark 
• Simon Wren-Lewis on being-honest-about-ideological-in;uence-in-economics
• Tim Harford on the-sweatshop-dilemma
• The Everyday economist on what-are-real-business-cycles Thanks Mark
• Adam Levitin on does-behavioral-economics-matter Thanks Mark
• Nick Rowe on synchronisation-and-the-gross-money-supply
• Robert Waldmann on benchmark-ii
• David Beckworth on the-knowledge-problem-in-monetary-policy

General

• Kelly Anne Waters on health-check-how-to-choose-toothpaste
• Elizabeth Tippett on why-companies-like-wells-fargo-ignore-their-whistleblowers-at-their-peril
• Ann Reichell on why-sugar-is-so-much-worse-for-teenagers-brains
• environmental economics on even-top-economists-publish-in-predatory-journals-study-finds Thanks Mark

Climate

• Andrew Hopkins on the-gas-industry-needs-a-carbon-price-to-compete-with-coal
• Davis Appell on callendars-1938-figure
• Tamino on sea-ice-update-2 , desperate-denial , people-of-the-land , 400 , hurricanes-sea-level-and-baloney
• and Then Theres Physics on another-97-% , the-middle-ground
• Skeptical science on gw-continues-2016-hottest-year-ever-recorded
• Frances Woolley on the-carbon-costs-of-immigration
• David Stern on recent-estimates-of-climate-sensitivity, the-ocean-in-climate-econometrics Thanks Mark
• Marc Hudson on another-prime-minister-another-endorsement-for-coal-but-why
• Karl Bragaanza and Steve Rintoul on state-of-the-climate-2016-bureau-of-meteorology-and-csiro
• Jeff Masters on sea-ice-extent-is-near-record-lowssouth-as-well-as-north
• Rob Honeycutt on tracking the 2C limit
• various on will-the-great-barrier-reef-recover-from-its-worst-ever-bleaching

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• another failed replication of power pose
• how-one-study-produced-a-bunch-of-untrue-headlines-about-tattoos-strengthening-your-immune-system
• spin
• ptolemaic-inference
• how-not-to-analyze-noisy-data-a-case-study
• colorless-green-ideas-tweet-furiously
• problems
• generic and consistent confidence and credible regions
• happiness of conservatives and liberals in different countires
• warriors-suck-bayesian-exploration
• conflicts of interest
• no-evidence-shark-attacks-swing-elections
• updating-fast-slow
• Kaiser Fung on readers-guide-to-the-power-pose-controversy-1, readers-guide-to-the-power-pose-controversy-2
• Chris Dillow on resisting-asymmetric-bayesianism
• Kids prefer Cheese on no-causal-connection-between-sugar-and-obesity

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• No Hesitations on machine-learning-vs-econometrics-iv

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• the-enlightened-economist-prize-2017-the-winner , revolt-of-the-data-points , not-the-smartest-animals
• Rebecca English on toilet-training-from-birth-it-is-possible
• Roselin Petelin on crimes-of-grammar-and-other-writing-misdemeanours

Vox wonk

• housing-cycles-real-estate-valuations-and-economic-growth
• gender-gap-two-stage-maths-competition
• new-ebook-what-do-uk-eu-perspectives-brexit
• biased-technical-change-and-labour-demand-evidence-global-value-chains
• exchange-rate-predictability-medium-term
• why-unconventional-monetary-policy-works-theory
• understanding-bank-payouts-during-financial-crisis-2007-2009
• evaluating-regional-policy-and-shocks-real-world
• danger-germanys-current-account-surpluses-results-cfm-and-cepr-survey
• exchange-rate-behaviour-when-interest-rates-are-negative
• climate-change-and-cost-inaction
• relationship-between-job-displacement-and-crime
• oliver-hart-nobel-laureate
• certified-random-co-authors
• compulsory-voting-turnout-and-government-spending

Australia's state of the Climate

The Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO have combined to produce another State of the Climate for Australia again.

A very interesting read.

• More extreme weather is expected
• CO₂ concentrations at Cape Grim passed through 400 parts per million for the first time in May 2016, and global concentrations are now at their highest levels in the past two million years.
• There has been an increase in extreme fire weather, and a lengthening of the fire season in most fire-prone regions since the 1970s.
• In particular, May–July rainfall has reduced by around 19% since 1970 in the southwest of Australia. There has been a decline of around 11% since the mid-1990s in April–October rainfall in the continental southeast. Southeast Australia has had below-average rainfall in 16 of the April–October periods since 1997.
• Australia’s oceans have also warmed, with sea surface temperature increases closely matching those experienced on land. This warming affects both the marine environment and Australia’s terrestrial climate, due to the large influence of surrounding oceans on our weather systems. Sea levels have risen around Australia, which has the potential to amplify the effects of high tides and storm surges.
• warming in the global oceans now extends to at least 2,000 metres below the surface. 
•  studies of record heat experienced during Spring in 2013 and 2014 have shown that the observed high temperatures received an extra contribution from background global warming.

It is a really good read.

Pauline Hanson

Way back in 1996 Pauline Hanson warned us that Australia was being overrun by Asians. She was wrong, badly wrong.

Now she is back she is saying Australia is being overrun by Muslims. Again she is wrong badly wrong. We are more likely being overrun by one nation voters than Muslims  ( There are more one nation voters than Muslims in Australia).

As Peter Lewis has shown most people have no idea of how many Muslims are immigrating to Australia. There is no excuse for Hanson to peddle such nonsense unless she is deliberately lying to garner political support. We can say her initial foray into politics was based on ignorance and prejudice.

There is no excuse this time.Moreover what idiot would attempt to put all Muslims in the same bucket. Does she think ISIL doesn't kill Shia Muslims.
Has she ever wondered why terrorism comes essentially from one sect of Sunni Islam?

I suspect Hanson research is done by Steve Kates!?

The Solicitor General resigns

For the first time in over 100 years the Solicitor General has resigned.
This was always going to occur after George Brandis the Attorney General issued a directive that ALL people who wished to be briefed by the Solicitor General must have his agreement.

We need to understand a few things.
Justin Gleeson who resigned has an eminent reputation in legal circles. George Brandis does not.
George Brandis is known for being a pompous git who is not known for his intellectual insights. He is also known for being an accident prone politician.
Indeed in recent times he has clearly misled both Parliament and possibly his cabinet colleagues on legal advice he clearly implied came from the Solicitor General when it did not.

Justin Gleeson clearly knew he could no longer work with George Brandis. Under most conventions Brandis would have resigned by now.

Whilst Brandis is still Attorney General the government will not get candidates of a high calibre to be Solicitor General that has happened in the past.
See Gabrielle Appleby

All this conforms this government is slowly but surely sinking into a mire all of its own making. It is as though tony Abbott was still in charge!