some people have lost their memories

 I cannot get over how some people have completely lost their memory over political history in the USA.

First a few facts.

1. Trump won in 2016 but easily lost the popular vote.
2. the 2018 mid-terms were a massive blue wave.
3. Trump easily lost the 2020 election.
4. There was NO red wave in the 2022 mid-term elections and few 'trump' candidates won
5. Trump's victory in 2024 was the smallest victory against the incumbent in the Western world
6. Trump is under water in most categories since gaining office immigration and the economy being the most prominent

When Trump won I confidently predicted the mid-terms would go to the Democrats because of his policies which were bonkers in terms of economics namely mass tariffs and mass deportations. I stand by that prediction.

I cannot get over how so many people , both Democrat and Republican, talk as though Trump won in an reagan/ nixon/ johnson landslide. He didn't. Trump showed last time he was incompetent and chaotic and this time he has even more incompetent people as cabinet secretaries.

Trump has now recognised how unpopular he is by wanting even greater gerrymandering in republican held states. Autocracy is not popular. Dirigiste  economics rarely works as we know only too well here is Australia.

Now there is talk of Trump suffering confabulation. It will only get worse!

The trouble is Trump and his allies have so poisoned US polity and government it will take a monumental task to reform it. Take the DOJ. It will take time to get rid of the sycophants and bring in seasoned lawyers to do the job the DOJ used to do before trump.

Around the Traps 15/8/25

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Bernard Keane on labor-justifies-gaza-silence-to-media Thanks Nick
• Anne Twomey on why-gareth-wards-challenge-to-the-power-to-expel-him-from-the-nsw-parliament-failed 
• Julian Pierce and Ross Guest on no-one-holds-the-government-to-account-on-spending-we-need-a-budget-watchdog-that-can-bite 
• Angel Zhong on the-asxs-rookie-error-is-just-the-latest-of-many-blunders-investors-are-losing-confidence
• Ross Gittins on official-modelling-shows-little-benefit-in-a-cut-in-company-tax , albanese-is-crying-poor-but-were-losing-billions-in-untaxed-gas , for-some-reaching-old-age-marks-a-historic-first
• Michelle Grattan on australia-to-recognise-palestine-state-next-month-at-the-united-nations
• Mark the Ballot on polling-update
• Stella Huangfu on the-rba-has-cut-rates-for-the-third-time-this-year-more-relief-may-be-on-the-way
• Peter Siminski and Roger Wilkins on the-government-has-asked-for-bold-proposals-maybe-its-time-to-consider-taxing-the-family-home
• Nicki Huttley on australia-obsession-with-interest-rates-economy-productivity
• croaking cassandra on one-more-treasury-oia-about-rb-spending
• Yuting Zhang on private-health-insurers-want-to-fund-more-out-of-hospital-care-but-the-productivity-commission-has-other-ideas
• Ken Henry on fixing-australias-broken-environmental-laws-is-the-only-way-to-improve-productivity-and-protect-our-natural-assets

OZ Climate

• no-one-likes-to-say-it-but-china-is-the-cybersecurity-elephant-in-the-renewable-energy-room
  
• eight-hour-battery-gets-firb-approval-as-loss-making-developer-seeks-key-funding-for-construction 
  
• australias-biggest-coal-state-to-hold-bigger-tenders-sets-new-stretch-target-for-wind-solar-and-storage 
  
• if-productivity-is-about-doing-more-with-less-electrification-of-our-cars-and-homes-is-a-no-brainer 
  
• agl-says-batteries-will-be-its-new-cash-cow-as-coal-fades-in-switch-from-baseload-to-grid-flexibility
  
• australias-biggest-energy-retailer-hits-go-slow-button-on-wind-and-solar-hedges-on-eraring-closure
  
• a-24-7-solar-battery-project-backed-by-gas-giant-joins-epbc-queue-as-another-gets-green-light
  
• humelink-transmission-line-finally-opens-up-to-wind-solar-and-battery-proposals
  
• Tim Cowan and Thong Nguyen-Huy on triple-whammy-how-3-types-of-drought-crippled-southern-australia-this-year
• Riona Moodley on from-reef-friendly-sunscreens-to-sustainable-super-greenwashing-allegations-are-rife-heres-how-the-claims-stack-up
• Rod Sims on australias-time-has-come-to-be-a-green-energy-intensive-export-superpower
• James Watson and Maximilian Kotz on 70-years-of-data-show-extreme-heat-is-already-wiping-out-tropical-bird-populations
• James Gilmour on safe-no-more-off-the-charts-marine-heat-has-severely-damaged-ningaloo-and-other-pristine-coral-reefs
• renew economy on heat-stress-leads-to-worst-bleaching-on-record-for-coral-reef-ecosystems

Northern America

• institutional economics on the-trump-put-paradox
• James O'Brien on michael-lewis-america-is-run-by-bullies Thanks Nick
• Yascha Mounk on the-singer-who-skewered-america Thanks Nick
• anecdotal value on the-technological-republic-review Thanks Nick
• salmagandi on from-philosophy-to-power Thanks Nick
• Mariana Mazzucato and Fausto Gernone on how-ai-profits-can-help-fund-cultural-production Thanks Nick
• the conversable economist on how-many-jobs-depend-on-exports
• Terry Nilles on trumps-economy
• Tyler Cowen on transitory-vs-permanent-tariffs , are-juries-racially-discriminatory
• David Bier on trump-mass-deportation-ice-profiling-latinos
• Kruggers on the-political-economy-of-incompetence , trump-plays-the-carnage-card , hackification , magas-feelings-dont-care-about-your , stagflation-shooting-the-messengers
• Menzie Chinn on america-in-recession-since-2022-a-critique-of-antoni-st-onge
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-03-in-july
• new deal democrat on the-consumer-inflation-transition-continues-as-shelter-prices-decelerate-further-and-other-sectors-show-some-re-acceleration
• Cameron Peters on trump-ej-antoni-bureau-labor-statistics-jobs-report
• Richard Heydarian on south-china-sea-collision-brings-us-philippines-alliance-fore
• Anne Applebaum on trump-state-department-human-rights-report
• Brian Klaas on trump-bls-antoni
• Fintan O'Toole on a-guy-who-never-dies
• Walter Schaub on weaponizing-the-watchdog-trump-ingrassia
• David Kirkpatrick on the-number
• Brad de Long on trumps-fed-chair-candidates-sub-mediocrity
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-brett-kavanaugh-netchoice-fitch-donald-trump

Europe

• the ruffian on keir-starmers-reality-avoidance-field Thanks Nick
• Harry Brighouse on bbc-radio-abroad
• Dilnoza Ubaydullaeva on why-us-not-russia-made-peace-former-soviet-south-caucasus
• Irana Skubii on trump-s-alaska-summit-putin-ignores-what-ukraine-s-territory-really-means

Asia

• Ian Parmeter on israel-is-deepening-its-war-in-gaza-here-are-5-big-questions-about-netanyahus-ill-advised-next-phase 
• Amin Saikal on as-netanyahu-moves-toward-full-takeover-of-gaza-israel-faces-a-crisis-of-international-credibility 
• Yaron Peieg on how-israels-self-image-changed-from-self-reliance-to-aggressive-militarism 
• Muhammad Raskhmat on asean-china-need-their-own-climate-compact
• Martin Kear on beyond-recognition-the-challenges-of-creating-a-new-palestinian-state-are-so-formidable-is-it-even-possible
• Vani Murali on trump-modi-can-t-ignore-trade-policy-power-india-s-farmers
• Kerry Brown on taiwan-faces-a-precarious-future-whether-or-not-us-and-china-continue-on-path-to-conflict
• Henry Yep on narrative-trap-how-we-can-misread-china
• Zack Beauchamp on israel-gaza-starvation-polls-public-opinion
• Adam Simpson on with-new-weapons-cash-and-battleground-experience-from-ukraine-north-korea-has-become-much-more-formidable
• Peter Greste on israel-must-allow-independent-investigations-of-palestinian-journalist-killings-and-let-international-media-into-gaza
• Iris Mackler on has-state-recognition-changed-the-game-in-gaza-only-for-the-deluded
• Arif Saba et al on after-4-years-of-repressive-taliban-rule-afghans-are-suffering-in-silence-is-the-world-still-watching

Wonk

• Ralph Leonard on the-right-doesnt-deserve-the-west Thanks Nick
• Elise Beal on Young_and_Meaningful Thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on the-law-of-unintended-consequences-strikes-again
• Evan Freidin on china-america-stablecoin-race-could-reshape-global-finance
• Kruggers on the-economics-of-smoot-hawley-2
• noahopinion on who-will-actually-profit-from-the-AI-boom , corporations-arent-the-reason-your-rent-is-too-high
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-cryptocurrencies-and-the-political-economy-of-money
• Christopher Pollard on how-the-neoliberalism-of-hayeks-bastards-changed-the-world-and-fuelled-the-rise-of-the-populist-right
• Deborah Dunn-Walters on rfk-jr-is-wrong-about-mrna-vaccines-a-scientist-explains-how-they-make-covid-less-deadly 
• the conversable economist on nathaniel-hawthorne-on-how-iron-stoves-ruined-society , learning-ai-and-john-searles-chinese-room , what-economic-ideas-are-true-and-nontrivial , summer-2025-journal-of-economic-perspectives-freely-available-online
• James Paterson on high-tech-drones-are-changing-warfare-terrorists-may-soon-follow-the-same-playbook
• Brad De long on i-see-the-substack-wars-have-started-up-again

General

• Milad Haghani and Ruggiero Lovreglio on how-do-scientists-estimate-crowd-sizes-at-public-events-and-why-are-they-often-disputed 
• Adam Brumm et al on this-stone-tool-is-over-1-million-years-old-how-did-its-maker-get-to-sulawesi-without-a-boat
• Laura Driessen on move-over-mercury-chiron-is-in-retrograde-what-even-is-chiron
• Keersten Fitzgerald on does-penis-size-matter-and-how-do-i-know-whats-normal
• 
  

Climate

• Melanie Pill and Meg Keen on world-court-tightens-tap-fossil-fuels
• Marina Bolotknikova on future-of-food-abundance-factory-farming-grunwald 
• moyhu on july-global-surface-templs-down-0011-from-june
• open mind on sea-level-rise-in-the-u-s-a
• and Then Theres Physics on is-there-a-conspiracy-to-ignore-challenging-new-ideas , getting-climate-risk-wrong
• skeptical science on iea-renewables-top-source-by-2026 , new_research
• Winnie Courtene-Jones et al on were-witnessing-last-ditch-talks-to-secure-a-global-plastic-pollution-treaty
• real climate on critiques-of-the-critical-review

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• art-buchwald-would-be-spinning-in-his-grave 
  
• the-rise-and-fall-of-bayesian-statistics 
  
• the-oldest-famous-person-2 
  
• survey-statistics-2nd-helpings-of-the-2nd-flavor-of-calibration
  
• autism-junk-science-the-only-part-of-this-story-that-surprises-me-is-that-the-outside-critic-found-it-hard-to-believe-just-how-flawed-it-turned-out-to-be 
  
• feynman-corner-we-have-access-to-a-lot-more-examples-than-we-used-to
  
• when-does-it-make-sense-to-talk-about-llms-having-beliefs
  
• statschat on success-rates
• no hesitations on on-tyrants-and-recalcitrant-statistical , on-tyrants-and-recalcitrant-statistical_12
• Kaiser Fung on story-first-governing

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• nuttin

vox wonk

• beyond-carbon-overlooked-benefits-fuel-taxation 
• unintended-consequences-lockdowns-evidence-violence-against-women
  
• charitable-giving-wartime-evidence-ukraines-war-fundraising
  
• eu-jobs-and-us-trade-navigating-change
  
• how-central-bankers-speak-about-climate-and-what-means-financial-markets
  
• recent-patterns-global-risk-behaviour-financial-markets
  
• italy-and-cost-unintelligible-laws-110-billion-euros-year
  
• re-evaluating-debt-and-deficits-inducing-high-interest-rates-us
  

penis size

 I have not felt well over the last couple of days however although I am late THIS article appears to be of great interest if penis sizes are of interest to you!!!

The RBA cuts rates

 The quite timid RBA cuts rates yesterday after the quarterly CPI confirmed what everyone else knew that inflation was falling into their target area.

At least from november they will have a comprehensive monthly CPI to assist them.  ( Hey Nick I saw your brother on TV discussing this)

The main question we must ask is how far should they cut to?  I have always advocated cutting to the neutral rate and then staying there to take breath as we do not need contractionary monetary policy.

BUT BUT BUT what is the neutraL state? It would appear somewhere between 3 and 3.5% so I saw move to 3.25% and leave it there.  

Fiscal policy is expansionary. I do not believe we need monetary policy to be expansionary as well.  We have to be wary of a recovery that is too strong

Australia recognises Palestine

 Yesterday the Australian government would recognise Palestine next month at the UN if certain conditions were met.

Well this should have occurred in 1948/9 just like Israel.

A couple of things before commenting.

Israel well David Ben-gurion used vicious jewish terrorists in 1948 which created the nakba.Two former terrorists have become Prime minister and like Yasser Arafat never apologized for their crimes. Hamas i nessence was created by Israeli intelligence services to provide a counter to Arafat and divide Palestine polity. West Bank settlers have killed nearly as many palestinians since october 7 as Hamas di in their murderous spree that day. In any other circumstances they would be called terrorists. There have been an average of 4 'incidents' each day this year.

There are a number of problems of recognising Palestine. 

1.  Israel has essentially made Gaza rubble. By bombing the 32 hospitals and the targeting of medical professionals their medium term objective is to 'encourage all palestinians to leave.
2. Israel has stolen land from the palestinians on the West Bank as well as turning a blind eye their killing thus Israel is taking more and more of the West Bank
3. It was envisaged that Palestine would be one country that is Gaza and the West Bank would be joined.

Who thinks Israel will give up any territory or help build what they have destroyed?

Many in Israel believe in a one state solution ( Israel) where palestinians have no rights.

Hamas cannot be part of any government. They have not only killed their own countrymen but their actions on October 7 has meant over 60,000 of them have been killed. ( Spare a thought for the christians there. Hamas hates them as they do not want to take revenge of Israel after their family members have been killed and Israel treats them as though they were muslims!)

I have said many times it would be very hard to see peace in this place as both peoples appear to hate each other with a violent passion. It is no coincidence that a lot of Israelis killed on october 7 were sympathetic to palestinians. Hamas wants to continue the hate and the killings. I see the same thing on the Israeli side so this problem needs a modern day mandela to succeed.

South Sudan

 I have been negligent in not writing about South Sudan.  As usual some else has done a brilliant job.

Read Anne Applebaum and weep.

Lots of different countries are there. There are Ukrainians there merely to kill the russians who are there!

Around the Traps 8/8/25

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ross Gittins on its-hard-not-to-hate-investors-when-the-property-game-is-so-unfair , roundtable-will-fix-nothing-unless-we-can-all-park-our-self-interest , pc-wants-our-big-mining-companies-to-pay-more-rent
• Liz Allen on australias-divorce-rate-is-the-lowest-its-been-in-50-years-why 
• Jason Nassios and James Giesieke on some-taxes-are-inefficient-at-any-level-even-modest-reforms-will-help 
• croaking cassandra on still-waiting-for-a-governor , reserve-bank-bits-and-pieces
• Jennifer Parker on australias-new-frigate-deal-with-japan-plugs-a-few-critical-holes-but-doesnt-come-without-risks
• Felicity Deane on economists-want-a-carbon-price-comeback-but-does-australia-have-the-political-courage
• croaking cassandra on thinking-about-the-mpc ,one-in-five-roles-could-go-at-the-reserve-bank

OZ climate

• tasmania-libs-defy-convention-to-pull-trigger-on-marinus-link-fid-and-bury-their-own-political-future 
  
• its-not-as-sexy-as-solar-but-energy-productivity-could-be-a-superhero-of-the-transition 
  
• energyaustralia-focuses-on-storage-as-retail-margins-crimp-its-wholesale-gains 
  
• why-australias-biggest-coal-state-is-so-excited-about-having-the-worlds-most-powerful-battery 
  
• physical-world-has-changed-the-contract-world-needs-to-catch-up-nelson-unveils-draft-market-reform 
  
• another-wind-project-emerges-to-tap-into-proposed-copperstring-line-opening-up-north-queensland 
  
• price-is-wrong-pc-advice-has-good-intentions-but-risky-outcomes-for-renewables 
  
• physical-world-has-changed-the-contract-world-needs-to-catch-up-nelson-unveils-draft-market-reform 
  
• wind-and-solar-droughts-have-a-bigger-impact-on-prices-than-on-reliability 
  
• australia-leads-the-world-on-rooftop-solar-now-it-needs-to-catch-up-with-how-to-manage-it
• behind-the-noise-get-ready-for-the-real-renewable-energy-transition
  
• nelson-reviews-plan-to-reshape-energy-markets-gets-warm-welcome-now-for-the-hard-part
• australia-can-cut-emissions-85-pct-by-2035-if-government-and-business-seize-the-moment
  
• Felicity Deane on economists-want-a-carbon-price-comeback-but-does-australia-have-the-political-courage
• Catherine de Fotenay on were-not-minimising-the-cost-of-the-net-zero-transition-these-reforms-will-help
• Graham Readfearn on glacier-shrinking-australia-remote-heard-island-sounds-alarm
• Daniela Ceccarelli et al on worlds-biggest-coral-survey-confirms-sharp-decline-in-great-barrier-reef-after-heatwave
• Anna Malos and Anna Skarbek on australia-can-hit-an-85-emissions-cut-by-2035-if-government-and-business-seize-the-moment

Northern America

• institutional economics on end-of-the-road-for-the-taco-trade
• Andrew Prokop on trump-jobs-economy-bls-fired
• Brendan Ballou on trump-appointments-emil-bove
• noahopinion on will-data-centers-crash-the-economy
• the conversable economist on federal-statistics-and-false-economies , the-us-auto-industry-evolving-not-evaporating
• Tyler Cowen on in-which-ways-is-the-bls-biased , why-the-tariffs-are-bad
• Kruggers on the-economics-of-smoot-hawley-20 , trump-is-getting-desperate-and-dangerous , the-paranoid-style-in-american-economics , about-that-stock-market , the-emperors-new-trade-deal , its-beginning-to-smell-a-lot-like-stagflation
• newdeal democrat on recession-watch-for-economically-weighted-ism-indexes-and-residential-construction-spending-continues , the-contradictory-signs-from-initial-and-continuing-jobless-claims-what-do-they-mean
• Jeet Heer on gaza-american-democracy-test
• Brad De Long on yes-kevin-hassett-would-be-a-very-bad-fed-chair
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-gallup-poll-popularity-trust
• Jonathan Lemire on trump-ukraine-gaza-economy
• Walter Shaub on weaponizing-the-watchdog-trump-ingrassia
• noahopinion on immigrant-memoir-comics

Europe

• Thomas Farzi on slovenia's nato rebellion Thanks Nick
• Karen Scott on why-uk-recognition-of-a-palestinian-state-should-not-be-conditional-on-israels-actions
• David Kirichenko on fibre-optic-drones-reshape-ukraine-s-technological-war
• Tyler Cowen on solve-for-the-equilibrium
• David Frum on show-ukraine-tim-mak-adrian-karatnycky
• stumbling and mumbling on the-political-communication-problem

Asia

• Kvetch on on-gaza Thanks Nick
• Paul Rodgers on uk-and-france-pledges-wont-stop-netanyahu-bombing-gaza-but-donald-trump-or-israels-military-could 
• Chietigj Bajpaee on shine-has-come-modi-trump-bromance-perhaps-india-us-relationship
• Amra Lee on air-dropping-food-into-gaza-is-a-smokescreen-this-is-what-must-be-done-to-prevent-mass-starvation
• David French on middle-east/israel-must-open-its-eyes-defeating-hamas-does-not-require-starving-a-single-child
• Shaheli Das on what-message-will-modi-take-if-he-attends-sco-summit-china 
• Sharon Thawayney on how-brics-could-become-global-south-s-climate-voice 
• Nicholas Moriesen on united-states-china-or-russia-who-writes-moral-code-artificial-intelligence
• noahopinion  on what-can-india-do-to-industrialize
• Ilan Noy on soaring-food-prices-prove-the-gaza-famine-is-real-and-will-affect-generations-to-come
• Erin Cook on prabowo-s-indonesia-draws-opposition-cartoon-pirates
• Zack Beauchamp on israel-gaza-aid-cut-off-strategy-humanitarian-disaster 
• Leonie Fleischmann on israels-plans-for-a-full-occupation-of-gaza-would-pave-the-way-for-israeli-resettlement
• Shirvin Zeinelzadah on where-next-for-khamenei-after-war-irans-supreme-leader-is-faced-with-difficult-choices
• Sean Turnell on myanmar-s-other-war-battle-financial-control
• Abdallah Fayyad on israel-famine-gaza-history-weaponizing-starvation-war
• Rodger Shanahan on netanyahu-never-had-a-plan-for-when-the-fighting-stops-so-how-can-the-war-end

Wonk

• Sean Illing on in the shadow of nietzsche and dostoesky Thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on whose-job-is-safe-from-ai
• Brad De Long on notes-on-substack-these-days , apple-computers-different-drummer-AI-path-considered
• Niven Winchester on new-trump-tariffs-early-modelling-shows-most-economies-lose-the-us-more-than-many 
• the conversable economist on shifting-markers-of-adulthood
• Greg Jericho on donald-trumps-war-on-statistics-is-an-authoritarian-attack-on-democracy-and-countries-like-australia-should-call-it-out
• Anne Applebaum on sudan-civil-war-humanitarian-crisis
• Elizabeth Finkel on trump-and-kennedy-are-destroying-global-science-even-einstein-questioned-facts-but-theres-a-method-to-it
• Matteo Boccia on sudan-america-china-take-very-different-tacks

General

• Konstantine Panegyres on the-great-mass-of-waters-killed-many-thousands-how-earthquakes-and-tsunamis-shook-ancient-greece-and-rome
• Mathew Sharpe on francis-bacons-essays-explore-the-darker-side-of-human-nature-400-years-on-they-still-instruct-and-unnerve
• Adam Smith on jane-austen-was-a-satirist-why-isnt-she-treated-like-one
• Laura Driessen on move-over-mercury-chiron-is-in-retrograde-what-even-is-chiron

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on the-new-doe-climate-report 
• open mind on sea-level-mis-information-from-doe , sea-level-rise-in-nyc , u-s-government-makes-old-lies-new-again
• Nigel Stork and Adam Sharp on butterflies-beetles-and-other-tropical-insects-are-being-devastated-by-climate-fuelled-el-nino-events
• David Appell on arctic-sea-ice-extent-nearing-12-month-low
• skeptical science on new_research

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• measurement-error-in-the-strike-zone 
  
• you-can-cite-peer-reviewed-research-in-support-of-almost-any-claim-no-matter-how-absurd 
  
• should-you-place-more-trust-in-scientists-if-they-are-intellectually-humble 
  
• a-paper-by-dorothy-bishop-on-the-replication-crisis-from-1990 
  
• survey-statistics-bls-jobs-report 
  
• two-philosophers-reportedly-lie-about-a-position-taken-by-another-philosopher 
  
• beyond-averages-measuring-consistency-and-volatility-in-nba-player-and-team-offense 
  
• real-examples-are-good-mile-run-example
  
• white-house-nyc-mayoral-race-strategy-life-imitates-blog
  
• statschat on where-are-they-now-asthma , official-statistics
• Marc Bellamare on a fools errand
• Kaiser Fung on one-solution-to-omnys-math-problem

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

vox wonk

• explaining-firm-level-reactions-macro-shocks 
  
• why-globalisation-needs-leader-hegemons-alignment-and-trade
  
• violent-conflict-and-cross-border-lending
  
• risks-new-international-trade-landscape
  
• transmission-liquidity-shocks-through-non-bank-financial-intermediaries-evidence
  
• childhood-friendships-and-gender-equality-paradox-education
  
• global-shocks-institutional-development-and-trade-restrictions-learning-crises
  
• china-shock-hits-germany