Once more on Israel and the Middle East

 No sane person believes Israel had to do something about Hamas after October7. ( Just before this just remember it was the Israeli intelligence services that enabled Hamas to be in place to begin with. That went well!)

The problem has always been in Gaza and now Lebanon is that they claim to have killed certain operatives whilst completely ignoring the innocent civilians they have killed. The only comeback they have is to query the number of people killed. They cannot in Lebanon as journalists are there unlike Gaza.

I have said previously I do not trust Hamas and I do not trust the Israeli government. As Mediawatch has pointed out the critics of Israel's approach in Gaza are large. Overseas doctors helping there, Aid organisations, palestinian journalists in Gaza etc

I fear Netanyahu does not want to stop for political reasons . He was asleep at the wheel when somehow Hamas was able to get over the border and start murdering will nilly.

It has destroyed any relationship Israel could have in the area for a long time.

Peter Dutton stuffs it up.

 Peter Dutton was interviewed on AM this morning talking about his new housing policy.

Quite a few problems. He wants to build new homes not apartments. This will merely lead to more urban sprawl. Spending on infrastructure does not overcome the negatives of urban sprawl. For example you will have a lot more traffic. It is much harder to drop the kids at school and then go to work as most work in the city. It creates a lot more pollution. Another problem is most young couple buy apartments and then move later on when they are earing more money to a house.

He says the CFMEU has caused costs to rise in building. Hang on the CFMEU are strong in building city blocks in the city and major suburbs not high rise apartments and most certainly not building houses in the suburbs.

He wants to reduce immigration but increase immigration for tradesmen. When pressed on this on what categories would reduce if overall immigration was to fall substantially under him he then said he would introduce better rules for pensioners so they could work more and thus earn more and stil lkeep the pension. Huh. Being a tradie is hard physical work. how many pensioners who were formerly tradies do you think will want to be a tradie again in their late 60s!

This policy has been ill thought through is the best one can describe this.

A few different things

 Elections

Before saturday the Liberals had not been in government for 23 years. That is absurd. The ALP has been in government far too long. It was a bad result!

Queensland has a state election next saturday. The ALP has had 3 successive terms and most of the last 30 years. Again that is far too long. They need to be replaced and that looks on the cards.

Interest rates

A lot of people said the unemployment figures put interest rate cuts off for some time. Labour force figures are LAGGING indicators. Moreover monthly figures are quite volatile.This ignores the fact inflation is falling both at a headline and underlying rate. Various surveys show inflation falling as well. We have a slowing economy fellahs!  

Albo buying a house

Albo bought a house on the Central Coast which is close to his fiancée's  parents. Here is a double standard. Liberals can make money and invest well but not ALP people. This happened to Keating in spades. Capitalism can only apply to the critics apparently.

Trump fraud

Trump tried to sell himself as working at McDonalds but get this. The franchise was closed for the day. the only 'buyers' were carefully selected trump supporters. Unbelievable 

Church and politics

There is almost a tradition in the USA where politicians are allowed into churches and give political speeches.  Harris di it today our time.The church ( which is people who believe in god) is different to the building to where they meet. Even so the building is supposed to be the house of God. You go there to hear the word of God and encourage each other to follow the teachings of Jesus. Listening to a politician is not part of this. It got worse with Trump as it would. In a church he not only swore he got the congregation to swear. What would a person think listening and seeing this!

Around the Traps 18/10/24

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• James Blackwell on the-voice-defeat-set-us-all-back-and-since-then-our-leaders-have-given-up
• Chris Murphy on the-government-spent-twice-what-it-needed-to-on-economic-support-during-covid-modelling-shows
• Adrian Esterman et al on lessons-for-the-next-pandemic-where-did-australia-go-right-and-wrong-in-responding-to-covid
• Paul Strangio on no-the-liberal-party-does-not-have-a-history-of-upholding-the-right-to-protest-in-australia-just-look-back-to-the-vietnam-war
• Sophia Kagan on amid-global-aged-care-labour-shortage-how-will-australia-address-challenge
• Angel Zhong on banning-debit-card-surcharges-could-save-500-million-a-year-if-traders-dont-claw-back-the-money-in-other-ways
• Denis Muller on fair-minded-down-to-earth-and-unusually-gifted-george-negus-dies-at-82
• Priya Chacko on australia-can-t-escape-india-canada-crossfire
• renew economy on making-it-up-as-he-goes-bowen-slams-obriens-plan-to-put-existing-gas-into-capacity-scheme

OZ climate

• rooftop-solar-supplies-more-than-50-per-cent-of-main-grids-power-demand-for-first-time
  
• rooftop-solar-supplies-more-than-50-per-cent-of-main-grids-power-demand-for-first-time
  
• port-of-newcastle-advances-new-precinct-to-become-leading-hub-for-green-hydrogen
  
• giant-wind-farm-behind-barnaby-poo-tickets-outburst-changes-layout-trims-turbine-numbers
  
• massive-renewables-hub-gets-all-clear-from-locals-but-long-distance-activists-complain-about-the-view
  
• how-the-worlds-biggest-isolated-grid-is-dealing-with-the-growing-potential-of-100-pct-wind-and-solar
  

Northern America

• institutional economics on prediction-market-whales
• Menzie Chinn on contextualizing-the-inflationary-impact-of-the-10-60-trump-tariff-plan , guest-contribution-social-security-reform-between-a-cliff-and-a-hard-place
• Selwyn Parker on us-wakes-china-s-latest-threat-big-ships
• Tyler Cowen on the-costs-of-u-s-tariff-imposition
• Ben Mathis-Lilley on us-presidential-election-donald-trump-lies-directionally-accurate
• Angry Bear on what-happens-when-corporate-places-greater-emphasis-on-stock-buybacks-rather-than-quality
• Joel Eissenberg on immigrants-arent-taking-all-the-jobs
• John Quiggin on the-us-just-lost-a-war-and-nobody-noticed
• new deal democrat on household-balance-sheets-are-in-good-shape
• Denis Muller on suicide-for-democracy-what-is-bothsidesism-and-how-is-it-different-from-journalistic-objectivity
• Christian Paz on latinos-trump-harris-immigration-assimilation-conser
• Mark Stern on trump-electoral-college-edge-shrinks-pennsylvania-wisconsin-polls
• Laurence Tribe on where-freedom-ends
• Kevin Drum on notes-on-trumps-bloomberg-interview
• Jeet Heer on harris-strategy-playing-safe-risks
• Jim Newell on ted-cruz-colin-allred-debate-texas-senate-polls
• Alexander Sammon on kamala-harris-fox-news-interview-bret-baier-election
• noahopinion on what-remains-of-the-progressive-project
• Bill Haskell on you-shall-not-pass-voting-in-georgia-and-alabama
• Eric Kramer on can-the-supreme-court-be-trusted-to-call-balls-and-strikes-neil-gorsuch-in-over-ruled-gives-us-one-answer
• the conversable economist on a-surge-in-us-rd-spending

Europe

• Mainly Macro on october-budget-6-thanks-to-truss-bond-market-scare-stories-are-back
• Gordon Weiss on shared-struggle-ukrainians-their-global-supporters-front-lines
• Khang Vu on north-korean-troops-russia-first-test-russia-north-korea-alliance

Asia

• Gemma Ware on what-israel-and-its-neighbours-want-now-as-all-out-war-looms-in-the-middle-east-podcast
• Samuel Voldermarian on israel-has-banned-the-un-secretary-general-is-this-legal-or-right
• Ali Mamouri and Shahram Akbarzadah on with-hezbollah-now-severely-weakened-could-a-threatened-iran-acquire-a-nuclear-bomb
• Abdallah Fayyad on social-security-reform-solvency-trust-fund-trump-harris-plans
• Mohd Yunus on ripple-effects-eu-deforestation-laws-southeast-asia
• Wenting Hu and Wesley Wedmaier on chinas-government-is-about-to-spend-big-on-stimulus-can-it-turn-around-the-countrys-sluggish-economy
• Angeline Tan and Yanitha Louis on malaysia-s-asean-chairmanship-catalyst-not-panacea
• Joost Hiltermann on the-path-to-regional-war-israel-iran

Wonk

• Tim Harford on what-we-can-and-cant-say-about-what-we-do-and-dont-know
• noahopinion on against-steelmanning , a-nobel-for-the-big-big-questions
• Andrew Dowdy et al on why-hurricanes-like-milton-in-the-us-and-cyclones-in-australia-are-becoming-more-intense-and-harder-to-predict
• Alex Tabarrok on acemoglu-johnson-and-robinson-win-nobel-for-institutions-and-prosperity
• the conversable economist on a-nobel-for-acemoglu-johnson-and-robinson-institutions-and-prosperity
• John Hawkins on a-new-book-reveals-much-of-trumps-success-is-based-on-a-myth-he-is-a-self-made-billionaire
• Tyler Cowen on the-early-history-of-peer-review

General

• Anna Fiveash on can-listening-to-music-make-you-more-productive-at-work
• Trevor Ireland on new-research-shows-most-space-rocks-crashing-into-earth-come-from-a-single-source

Climate

• skeptical science on fact-brief-plant-food
• moyhu on when-regression-doesnt-work-florida
• renew economy on worlds-biggest-wind-turbine-26-mw-rolls-off-production-line-in-china , global-shift-to-renewables-has-quickened-but-still-not-fast-enough-to-meet-crucial-climate-goals , solar-and-batteries-steal-the-show-but-world-needs-more-renewables-quickly-to-meet-1-5c-target
• and Then Theres Risk on climate-risk
• ocean acidification on carbonate-system-and-acidification-of-the-adriatic-sea

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• the-interactions-paradox-in-statistics
  
• she-wants-to-know-what-are-best-practices-on-flagging-bad-responses-and-cleaning-survey-data-and-detecting-bad-responses-any-suggestions-from-the-tidyverse-or-crunch-io
  
• where-have-all-the-count-words-gone-in-defense-of-fewer-and-among
  
• pitfalls-of-demographic-forecasts-of-us-elections
  
• things-are-getting-so-politically-polarized-we-cant-measure-how-politically-polarized-things-are-getting
  
• here-is-the-data-sharing-statement
  
• here-is-the-data-sharing-statement-in-its-entirety-for-goodwin-gm-aaronson-st-alvarez-o-et-al-single-dose-psilocybin-for-a-treatment-resistant-episode-of-major-depression-n-engl-j-med-doi-10
  
• controversy-over-recently-honored-claims-in-the-paper-the-colonial-origins-of-comparative-development
  
• columbia-surgery-prof-fake-data-update-yes-hes-still-being-promoted-on-the-university-webpage
  
• freakometrics on how to go beyond the coldness of numbers and take action , can extreme risks be diversified
• Kaiser Fung on nobody-likes-seeing-the-dentist

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• nuttin

vox wonk

• who-holds-sovereign-debt-and-why-it-matters
  
• supply-chain-shortages-large-firms-market-power-and-inflation
  
• macroeconomic-implications-recent-surge-immigration-eu
  
• sovereign-emissions-circumstances-versus-effort
  
• key-issues-economic-analysis-increasingly-turbulent-security-environment
  
• hidden-profits-lost-jobs-link-between-tax-havens-and-employment
  
• role-borrowing-rise-gilt-yields-during-truss-episode-and-some-possible-implications
  
• rise-sovereign-bank-nexus-risks-developing-economies
  
• cross-gold-brazilian-treasure-and-decline-portugal
  
• economists-should-point-their-attention-stars
  

Israel again

 The USA is threatening to withdraw arments to Israel unless aid is allowed into Gaza. Hmm

no-one denied Israel to take action against Hamas after October 7. HOWEVER Israel has made no attempt to insulate  civilians in this endeavour. In other words they are using collective punishment. This is a war crime.

It gets worse. They have bombed hospitals and schools. When russia does this we are in uproar but not when Israel does it and kills more people.

It targets journalists, It fires on peacekeepers.  Israel is in a bad place.

It needs to listen to its friends and not be stubborn or it will end up with very few friends and help Hams achieve its aim

A lament on US Politics

 Sorry but I am going all over the place on this.

If Trump wins then what will Democrats do? I suspect they will brazenly lie just like Trump and the republicans are doing now. If you think US elections are bad now just wait for that. The important thing to remember here is facts do not matter. People do not believe them!

Joe Scarborough is correct. This election will be a vote on whether lies are effective or not and thus whether voters have standards or not.

I know evangelical is a different term in the USA. It does not mean they read the bible nor that they regard the bible as God's word and nor do they go to church. Indeed it is another way to say you vote republican but I shall engage them anyway. God does not approve of lies. He hates lies. It isn't hard to read the bible to find this out. On the other hand Satan is the father of all liars. If Trump lies there is no tomorrow then it is pretty clear Trump is not doing God's work.  Lying about hurricane relief is just moral depravity full stop.

I read everywhere that polling underestimated Trump's vote in 2016 and 2020. I also read how voter's main concerns are economic. Hang on have we forgotten about 2022 where polling vastly overestimated the republican vote. Just remember inflation was far more worse then. Abortion was a major issue. It is this time around.

All surveys are within the margin of error and I suspect one person is in front for a comfortable victory but we cannot see this at present. Just think about this. A man who is a convicted criminal , who led a insurrection to ensure he illegally stayed in power and brazenly lies every day each day is neck and neck in the race!

I also wish to issue a mea culpa. I said previously once people saw how 'bad' Trump was at rallies his vote would slip. He is obviously in poor mental condition (euphemism) however it doesn't matter. It is just like his lies. Some people just don't care. Without wishing to invoke godwin's law republican voters are acting a lotl ike voters in Germany between the wars. They like dictators.( They actually approve of Putin more than Biden!)

some suggestions for the ABC

 The ABC is looking for some radio presenters. Richard Glover has run a very successful afternoon program on what I call 2BL in Sydney for some 20 years. He is leaving. Patricia Karvelas is leaving radio national breakfast. She was much better on afternoons than mornings.

Here are two suggestions.

Pur Hamish McDonald on radio national breakfast. He has done it in the past when the incumbent went on holidays and as I have said in the past he clearly has been superior. Make him permeant!

You need someone with personality on afternoons. Ellen Fanning has it in spades and her sense of humour is infectious. Chis Bath is very similar but she does not want a fulltime gig.

There you go ABC and I won't charge a fee!