Around the Traps 13/9/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Benjamin Cark on paul-keating-superannuation-view-crumbling Thanks Nick
• Ross Gittins on if-theres-no-price-gouging-how-come-interest-rates-are-so-high , our-gambling-obsession-is-doing-great-harm-to-addicts-and-their-families
• croaking cassandra on remunerating-exchange-settlement-accounts-what-is-mof-up-to
• Kristy Hess on local-papers-are-central-to-our-democracy-we-must-do-more-to-bring-them-out-of-crisis
• Ben Wadham and James O'Connor on didnt-care-enough-heres-what-the-royal-commission-into-defence-and-veteran-suicide-found
• Sussannah Patton on china-s-rise-southeast-asia-bringing-golden-age-australia
• Hazel Easthope et al on many-strata-managers-who-handle-apartments-are-conflicted-heres-how
• Kevin Bonham on crying-wolf-more-embarrassingly-bad-tabloid-poll-reporting
• Michelle Grattan on aged-care-reform-self-funded-retirees-and-part-pensioners-to-pay-more-as-government-aims-to-shore-up-the-system

OZ Climate

• the-massive-new-projects-propelling-south-australia-towards-100-per-cent-net-renewables
  
• solar-and-battery-microgrid-saves-lord-howe-island-1-5m-in-diesel-fuel-costs-in-two-years
  
• like-running-hazelwood-for-106-years-labor-says-duttons-nuke-plan-will-be-akin-to-a-carbon-bomb
  
• origin-energy-boosts-its-bet-on-the-12-hour-battery-technology-that-could-help-kick-out-coal
  
• share-of-renewables-hits-record-high-on-australias-main-grid-pushes-coal-to-new-low
  
• hills-of-gold-wind-farm-wins-state-development-consent-and-fight-for-more-turbines
  
• victorias-biggest-solar-farm-biggest-battery-cleared-for-construction-in-heart-of-the-latrobe-valley
  
• six-ways-to-improve-ecosystem-outcomes-of-renewable-energy
  
• breeding-grounds-flight-paths-and-climate-change-getting-balance-right-on-wind-and-solar-approvals
  

Northern America

• Kruggers on trump-afd-germany-manufacturing-economy Thanks Nick
• George Boone on three-safe-bets-47th-president-s-foreign-policy
• Brad De Long on the-hunters-of-kentucky-the-jacksonian-thread-of-american-nationalismy
• Ian Millhiser on republican-government-shutdown-save-act-voter-disenfranchisement
• Shirin Ali on trump-trials-jack-smith-tanya-chutkan-federal-election-interference-case-hearings
• noahopinion on the-us-needs-to-pay-more-attention-to-electronic-warfare, yes-haitians-are-good-enough-to-be-americans
• new deal democrat on leading-indicators-from-fridays-jobs-report , august-cpi-further-important-progress-towards-2-yoy-level-marred-only-by-a-surprise-uptick-in-shelter
• Bill Haskell on enforcing-a-supreme-court-ethics-code , another-perspective-of-the-harris-trump-meeting
• Christian Paz on trust-polls-2016-2020-election-2024-pollster-polling-miss
• the conversable economist on us-productivity-growth-downside-upside , foreign-students-in-us-higher-education
• Kevin Drum on tariffs-are-not-as-nuanced-as-the-new-york-times-says
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-03
• Daniel Flitton on harris-vs-trump-marks-lines-foreign-policy-debate
• Peter Wehner on kamala-harris-broke-donald-trump
• Sussan Glasser on donald-trump-had-a-really-really-bad-debate
• Tyler Cowen on how-much-of-the-recent-inflation-was-caused-by-deficits , which-u-s-stocks-generated-the-highest-long-term-returns
• Nicole Narea on affirmative-action-black-enrollment-universities-diversity-supreme-court
• Jeet Heer on trump-harris-debate-bait-strategy
• Eric Levitz on trump-vance-haitian-immigrants-pets-springfield-ohio-polls-aidan-clark

Europe

• Frederic Sawicki on michel-barnier-named-french-prime-minister-emmanuel-macron-just-gave-the-national-rally-the-keys-to-the-truck
• Jon Richardson on is-russias-changing-nuclear-doctrine-a-significant-concern-or-just-another-empty-threat
• Mainly Macro on october-budget-3-in-presenting-macroeconomic-fiscal-stance
• noahopinion on p/six-ideas-for-poland
• stumbling and mumbling on beyond-tax-rises

Asia

• Jonathan Campbell-James on iran-s-shadow-hand-houthi-red-sea-attacks
• Mubashar Hasan on rights-based-priority-relations-bangladesh
• Benjamin Herscovitch on beijing-s-one-china-principle-spreading
• Tyler Cowen on why-indian-firms-dont-scale
• Kourosh Ziabari on what-iranians-want-their-country
• John Quiggin on implausibility-taiwan-blockade
• Samuel Bashfield on implications-india-s-newest-ballistic-missile-submarine

Wonk

• Institutional Economics on a-short-history-of-the-second-monetarist-revolution
• Antara Halder on bangladesh-yunus-microfinance-basis-for-new-model-of-economic-thinking Thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on what-geeks-can-learn-from-sport
• the conversable economist on lab-grown-diamonds-an-origin-story , the-double-irish-dutch-sandwich-end-of-a-tax-evasion-strategy
• sandwichman on basil-oberholzers-last-hour
• Menzie Chinn on choi-dang-kirpalani-perez-on-exorbitant-privilege-and-the-sustainability-of-us-public-debt
• Gideon Lewis-Kraus on the-angst-and-sorrow-of-jewish-currents

General

• Andres Suares-Castro  and Rachel Oh on our-cities-are-losing-the-small-colourful-songbirds-that-give-us-the-most-joy
• Deanne Fisher on new-measurements-reveal-the-enormous-halos-that-shroud-all-galaxies-in-the-universe
• Henry Farrell on patrick-obrian-is-a-great-conservative-writer
• Teresa Ubide on crystals-hold-a-secret-history-of-volcanoes-and-clues-about-future-eruptions
• Dan Golding on james-earl-jones-has-died-but-as-the-voice-of-darth-vader-he-will-live-forever
• Alice Clement and John Long on exceptional-new-fish-fossil-sparks-rethink-of-how-earths-geology-drives-evolution
• John Long on friday-essay-giant-shark-megalodon-was-the-most-powerful-superpredator-ever-why-did-it-go-extinct
• Lauren Jackson on james-earl-joness-voice-was-something-more

Climate

• Laura Revell et al on the-ozone-hole-above-antarctica-will-keep-opening-up-each-spring-for-decades-to-come-heres-why-that-still-matters
• David Appell on the-trend-in-ocean-acidification
• Moyhu on august-global-surface-templs-up-0065-from-july-record-august-temperature
• Pep Canadell et al on methane-emissions-are-at-new-highs-it-could-put-us-on-a-dangerous-climate-path
• skeptical science on new-models-stronger-more-hurricanes
• moyhu on giss-august-global-temperature-up-by-.09

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• christakis-fowler-update-update
  
• evil-scamming-fake-publishers
  
• sports-gambling-addiction-epidemic-fueled-by-some-combination-of-psychology-economics-and-politics
  
• heres-a-useful-response-by-christakis-to-criticisms-of-the-contagion-of-obesity-claims
  
• the-mainstream-press-is-failing-america-uk-edition
  
• awesome-online-graph-guessing-game-and-scatterplot-charades
  
• decisions-of-democrats-to-run-moderate-or-extreme-candidates
  
• b-school-prof-data-sleuth-lawsuit-fails
  
• its-stanford-time-baby-8-hour-time-restricted-press-releases-linked-to-a-91-higher-risk-of-hype
  
• movements-in-the-prediction-markets-and-going-beyond-a-black-box-view-of-markets-and-prediction-models
  
• supercentenarian-superfraud-update
  
• Kaiser Fung on correlation-and-causation , know-your-data-40-when-they-know-where-you-are

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• online-versus-person-services-effects-patients-and-providers
  
• religion-matters-economic-growth-through-various-channels
  
• economics-organisational-strategy
  
• demographic-change-individual-blessing-headwinds-european-growth
  
• much-money-little-capital-and-few-reforms-2023-banking-turmoil
  
• no-solid-scientific-basis-degrowth
  
• impact-wealth-inequality-economic-growth-evidence-italy-during-its-structural
  
• global-environmental-cooperation-and-innovation
  
• resilience-sailing-ship
  

Harris monstered Trump

 When something happens and it goes exactly as you predicted it is entirely satisficing.So it was with the 'debate' yesterday.

Let us go back a tad. firstly Trump di not win the last debate. Biden scored a really bad own goal. Indeed Biden's performance let people forget how dreadful Trump was. Also important as Harry Enten pointed out he had lost almost every debate he has been in.

On Harris's side too many people have conflated her very unimpressive presidential bid with now. As i have written previously she could not use her background in the primaries.She was given the nickname Coppala. She then veered left and looked uncconvincing.Everything changed when the Supreme court upended roe V Wade. She was the first to see the electoral consequences. This completely changed her. Her self confidence grew almost exponentially. She then thought she knew the electorate and it showed.

Her campaign was typical of this. A supremely self confident politician.

Harris came into the 'debate' well prepared. Trump di not and it showed. HArris dominated the 'debate' and essentially made the issues. TRump looked old, tired and angry. Harris looked happy, confident and engaged. Most importantly she looked god when not talking whereas Trump looked terrible. Add to this she got into Trump's head and lead him down various rabbit holes and you can see why this 'debate' was so overwhelming for Harris.

Harris looked like an ex-President. Trump did not

If Harris is so dumb then what does that make Trump.

Debates rarely move elections so take that into account.

I might just make a comparison with Hillary Clinton. Clinton had more policies than possibly any other candidate but she had no political smarts. Harris had that in spades. Also important is the point Harris is an attractive woman, Clinton is/was not. This helps.

the two Kevins

 First Kevin Drum on tariffs. Yes he is correct.Only US consumers and producers wil pay any increase in US tariffs.

Second Kevin Bonham investigates 'strange' reporting of polls. Perhaps we can call it shahanning polls!

Naraly I will be watching the 'debate', Few people realise that Trump has never 'won' a debate. ( Biden lost on a bad own goal last time.) I will have a few thoughts on it tomorrow.

A little bit on sport

 I am getting old. I want to avoid serious issues today and concentrate on football and cricket.

Football

The socceroos were woeful against Bahrain. The selection was strange. Behich and Duke are clearly past their best. We had no creativity in the midfield and it showed up bigtime. For all the possession we had we rarely looked like scoring. We allowed the opposition to frustrate us and it showed in yellow cards. ( The referee was poor and some of the yellow cards were mystifying).

At least we have found a right back. We had pace upfront but for some unfathomable  when the young man came on and looked good on the right he was switched to the left where he did not know what to do.

We play Indonesia tonight and they drew with Saudia Arabia after leading them.

We can only hope they improve a lot.

Cricket

The poms have finished their summer of cricket. The West indies were more cold than hot and Sri Lanka were not much better until the Pommy batsmen batted as if it did not matter in the second innings at the oval.

From an Ashed perspective the poms have good depth in batting and wicket keeping. Their fast bowlers apart from a 34 year old Wood could not break 90 mph. This is not good if they come to Australia. Their spinning options are worse. finger spinners are money for jam out here and there was no attempt to promote their legspinner.

It seems we will be relying on an aging pace attack. This may work. more to say after the series with India is concluded

Bill Shorten retires

 Bill Shorten has announced he is going to retire to become Vice Chancellor of the University of Canberra.

Bill Shorten was the head of the AWU before entering parliament. He was one of the university educated union officials. for those interested he got a Arts and law degree and then later a MBA. 

He first came to prominence when he was the public face of the workers down in Tasmania when two miners were  almost buried beneath the surface.

He got to parliament and rose to cabinet level pretty quickly introducing the NDIS to Australia. He switched sides twice in leadership. Firstly turfing out Rudd and then bringing him back.

Perhaps because of this he immediately on assuming being the Leader of the Opposition was to bring a party disunited together again. This was understandable given they lost in a landslide. In this he succeeded. Indeed he was so successful in this and at combatting Tony Abbott as PM he was in line to win in a landslide (although to be fair Tony Abbott's total ineptness helped). This led the Liberals to get rid of Abbott.

Turnbull then won a close election which all the polls showed would be the case although few actually believed them. Turnbull blamed mediscare for the result although the polls showed it made very little impact. Shorten was slow to understand how to combat Turnbull.

In the nest campaign Shorten lost the unlosable election however because of massive polling failures we still do not know why.

Since being in government again Shorten has been perhaps the most impressive minister.

Johnny Jenkins

 I first heard this when I bought Duane Allman's An Anthology.

I thought it fantastic.

So here it is

Around the Traps 6/9/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ross Gittins on gdp-is-going-backwards-that-doesnt-mean-your-life-is-too , albos-quiet-quest-stop-wasting-so-much-taxpayers-money , our-economy-has-turned-into-tortoise-the-RBA-will-be-pleased
• Kevin Bonham on supporting-first-past-post-for-Australia-is-pointless-for-Australia , poll-roundup-505-is-new-51
• Peter Brent on peter-duttons-road-to-nowhere Thanks Nick
• Sam Bennet and Hannah Orban on the-ndis-is-failing-profoundly-disabled-people-who-are-stuck-in-group-homes-heres-how-to-fix-this
• John Quiggin on australians-should-be-angry-about-coles-latest-billion-dollar-profit-but-dont-blame-the-cost-of-living
• John Simon on after-working-for-the-rba-for-30-years-heres-how-id-make-it-more-accountable
• Chris Cunneen et al on locking-up-young-people-might-make-you-feel-safer-but-it-doesnt-work-now-or-in-the-long-term
• croaking cassandra on an-excellent-working-relationship-with-the-governor , should-nz-establish-a-fiscal-council
• Greg Jericho on australia-economy-gdp-growth-rba-interest-rates
• Stephen Bartos on this-is-the-weakest-economy-outside-of-a-recession-heres-what-the-gdp-figures-show
• Leonora Risse on whats-a-recession-and-how-can-we-tell-if-were-in-one
• Kate Griffiths on gambling-is-causing-great-harm-heres-how-to-tip-the-odds-back-in-the-communitys-favour
• Nicholas Davis on how-australias-new-ai-guardrails-can-clean-up-the-messy-market-for-artificial-intelligence
• John Quiggin on chalmers-is-more-in-touch-with-the-economy-than-the-rba

OZ Climate

• rinehart-and-forrest-two-billionaires-two-polar-opposites-on-renewables
  
• wind-and-solar-investment-ticks-up-but-still-a-long-way-to-go-to-meet-scale-of-renewable-target
  
• six-new-big-battery-projects-emerge-as-winners-of-first-capacity-tender
  
• australias-most-powerful-battery-ready-for-commissioning-after-achieving-grids-biggest-connection
  
• wind-and-solar-dominated-south-australia-overtakes-tasmania-as-australias-most-renewable-state
  
• nuclear-wont-cut-it-cca-says-australia-must-go-all-in-on-renewables-to-meet-climate-targets
  
• australia-must-keep-its-eyes-on-the-green-iron-prize-the-cost-of-inaction-is-untenable
  
• David Bowman on its-time-to-give-up-on-normal-what-winters-weird-weather-means-for-the-warm-months-ahead
• Frank Jotzo on can-we-really-reach-net-zero-by-2050-a-new-report-maps-out-australias-path-in-more-detail-than-ever-before
• IEEFA on how-much-water-does-nuclear-really-need

Northern America

• Kevin Drum on a-case-study-in-propaganda
• noahopinion on progressives-need-to-learn-to-take-the-W , biden-did-stuff-and-it-looks-like-its-working , why-cant-the-us-build-ships
• Brad De Long on making-sense-of-the-career-of-donald-trump
• Shirin Ali on 2024-election-swing-states-voting-rights-alarming
• Robert Waldmann on the-us-economy-is-the-envy-of-the-first-world
• Brad De Long on america-has-no-alternative-to-industrial-policy
• Aja Romano on tenet-media-russia-what-happened-tim-pool-dave-rubin-benny-johnson-lauren-southern
• Frank Figluizzi on georgia-high-school-shooting-parents-answers
• Jeet Heer on trump-weird-coalition-strategy

Europe

• David Dunn on ukraine-war-us-military-support-for-kyiv-has-been-very-cautious-heres-how-a-harris-presidency-could-change-that
• Evan Freidin on russia-really-european-anymore
• Tim Harford on the-strange-illusory-rise-in-uk-inequality
• Mainly Macro on october-budget-2-how-much-do-uk-taxes-have-to-rise
• stumbling and mumbling on playing-by-the-rules

Asia

• Shahram Akbarzadah on is-irans-anti-israel-and-american-rhetoric-all-bark-and-no-bite
• Ellen Ioannes on west-bank-violence-jenin-raid-settler-idf-israel-gaza-hamas
• institutional economics on china-policymakers-shooting-the-bond-market-messenger
• Selwyn Parker on hong-kong-keeps-russia-s-dark-fleet-afloat
• Franklin Foer on hersh-goldberg-polin-hostage
• David Schulman on an-unlawful-presence-israel-international-court-of-justice
• Jonathan Campbell-Jones on iran-s-shadow-hand-houthi-red-sea-attacks

Wonk

• noahopinion on anti-neoliberalism-is-not-enough , how-do-you-deal-with-real-actual-nazis
• Tyler Cowen on sometimes-people-overrate-marginal-value-and-underrate-average-value
• Mark Pierce on patriot-s-virtue-understanding-world
• Scott Summer on are-low-wages-a-competitive-advantage-in-trade Thanks Tyler
• Tariq Choucair on brazil-just-banned-x-could-other-countries-follow-suit
• Marina Zhang on antimony-hidden-metal-fuelling-global-competition
• Sarah Loughran and Ken Karipidis on mobile-phones-are-not-linked-to-brain-cancer-according-to-a-major-review-of-28-years-of-research
• Sergey Sukhankin on will-russia-violate-antarctic-treaty
• Kieran Thompson on aukus-pillar-ii-growing-too-quickly
• Charlie Savage on a-terrible-mistake-the-achilles-trap-steve-coll
• the conversable economist on everything-you-want-to-know-about-inequality-the-ifs-deaton-review

General

• Craig Barker on angry-wise-or-plain-horny-zeus-comes-in-many-forms-onscreen-just-as-he-did-in-the-original-myths
• Hrvoje Tkalcic on seismic-echoes-reveal-a-mysterious-donut-inside-earths-core

Climate

• this is not cool on its-not-just-the-heat-its-the-steadily-rising-humidity
• skeptical science on fact-brief-cycle , detecting-climate-misinformation-Twitter-X
• the conversable economist on physical-realities-of-moving-to-cleaner-energy
• ocean acidification on antarctic-benthic-ecological-change
• Caroline Shaw on healthier-happier-fairer-new-research-shows-major-life-benefits-from-decarbonising-transport

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• loga-x-not-log1-x
  
• my-basic-question-is-do-we-really-need-data-to-be-analysed-by-both-methods
  
• chutzpah-is-their-superpower
  
• should-you-always-include-a-varying-slope-for-the-lower-level-variable-involved-in-a-cross-level-interaction
  
• in-search-of-a-theory-associating-honest-citation-with-a-higher-deeper-level-of-understanding-than-dishonest-plagiarism
  
• the-nyt-sinks-to-a-new-low-in-political-coverage
  
• meritocracy-and-womens-tennis
  
• Kaiser Fung on doping-pops-up-in-the-news

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• where-did-summer-go
  
• Andrew Gelman on the-waltz-of-reason-and-a-paradox-of-book-reviewing

vox wonk

• macroeconomics-narratives
  
• resolving-stakeholder-governance-dilemma-integrated-performance-approach
  
• persistent-human-costs-deindustrialisation-lessons-collapse-british-coal-industry
  
• using-public-debt-deliver-long-term-investments-and-reforms
  
• understanding-effects-cost-living-crisis-role-interest-rates-and-mortgage-debt
  
• wage-insurance-trade-displaced-workers-middle-ground-alternative-rising-protectionism
  
• targeted-restrictions-teenage-drivers-promising-approach-improving-road-safety
  
• good-management-practices-are-great-productivity-well-profit-shifting
  
• macroprudential-policies-and-industrial-growth-cross-country-evidence-over-last-30
  
• urban-wage-premium-women-evidence-across-wage-distribution
  
• intended-and-unintended-consequences-welfare-cuts-refugees
  
• public-investment-orphan-politics
  
• exchange-rate-models-are-better-you-think-and-why-they-didnt-work-old-days