Around the Traps 10/2/23

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Libby Rumpf et al on 200-experts-dissected-the-black-summer-bushfires-in-unprecedented-detail-here-are-6-lessons-to-heed
• Marion Terrill  and Natasha Bradshaw on how-to-save-4-billion-a-year-reform-a-fuel-tax-credit-scheme-with-no-real-rationale
• Murray Goot on how-much-has-support-for-the-voice-fallen-it-depends-on-how-you-ask
• Peter Breadon and Lachlan Fox on medicare-reform-is-off-to-a-promising-start-now-comes-the-hard-part
• Peter Martin on higher-interest-rates-falling-home-prices-and-real-wages-but-no-recession-top-economists-forecasts-for-2023
• Ross Gittins on want-better-economy-design-better-policies-don't-pick-sides, if-gps-want-more-money-theyll-have-to-be-less-allergic-to-change
• renew economy on the-radical-plan-to-build-worlds-biggest-green-electrolyser-and-hydrogen-power-plant, networks-win-rights-to-access-community-battery-scheme-in-controversial-call-by-regulator, wa-fossil-fuel-woes-continue-as-coal-shortages-prompt-aemo-warnings, graph-of-the-day-solar-covers-all-of-south-australia-demand-for-six-hours-straight, big-solar-and-wind-pipeline-boosted-by-4-3gw-of-new-committed-projects-in-2022, agl-looks-to-evs-batteries-and-rooftop-solar-as-it-goes-local-and-digests-massive-loss, solar-and-sheep-the-future-of-regional-australia-and-the-key-to-better-quality-wool, wind-turbine-failure-rates-are-rising-has-the-industry-gone-too-big-too-fast
• Ian McKinnon on a-tenth-of-all-electricity-is-lost-in-the-grid-superconducting-cables-can-help
• Peter Martin on rba-warns-of-at-least-2-more-interest-rate-rises-in-coming-months-as-the-economic-outlook-worsens
• Croaking Cassandra on reappointing-orr-some-documents
• Kevin Bonham on lidia-thorpe-quits-greens
• Charles Livingstone on nsw-pokies-reforms-will-do-much-to-limit-problem-gambling-and-money-laundering
• Hao Tan on the-coal-whack-a-mole-getting-rid-of-coal-power-will-make-prices-fall-and-demand-rise-elsewhere
• Leigh Howard on what-china-thaw-means-australia-s-trade-diversification-agenda
• Greg Jericho on the-reserve-bank-wants-unemployment-to-rise-it-should-be-careful-what-it-wishes-for
• Henry Cutler on need-a-bulk-billing-gp-why-throwing-more-money-at-medicare-isnt-the-answer
• William Fisher on richard-woolcott-navigating-great-change

Northern America

• Carl Walsh on inflation-surges-in-perspective Thanks Menzie
• Ellen Ioannes on republican-debt-ceiling-kevin-mccarthy
• noahopinion on threats-to-the-dollar-are-just-scare-stories
• Very Serious on why-republicans-find-it-hard-to-be-nice thanks Brad
• Maggie Koerth on absence-of-evidence-gun-laws
• Peter Dorman on this-is-what-happens-when-progressives-look-the-other-way
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on abortion-pill-outlawed-single-judge-real-possibility
• Alex Tabarrok on surely-right
• Jeet Heer on china-balloon-gap-crisis
• Menzie Chinn on debt-held-by-the-public-as-share-of-gdp
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-abortion-dobbs-jackson-handy-united-states-judge-kollar-kotelly
• Timothy Keller on christianity-secularization-america-renewal-modernity
• the conversable economist on hard-and-soft-landings-the-federal-reserves-record
• Michael Spence and Belinda Azenui on us-productivity-growth-non-tradable-sectors-labor-shortages Thanks Brad
• Barry Eichengreen on house-gop-debt-ceiling-narrative-wrong-facts Thanks Brad

Europe

• Ian Hill on russia-ukraine-wars-soviet-succession
• Jen Kirby on turkey-sweden-finland-nato-membership
• Alexander Vidman on what-ukraine-needs-to-liberate-crimea Thanks Brad
• Claire Berlinski on europe-putin-ukraine-google-translate thanks Brad
• Mainly Macro on fiscal-reporting-at-bbc
• Amy Maguire on putin-is-now-implicated-in-the-downing-of-flight-mh17-so-why-is-the-investigation-shutting-down
• Dahlia Martin on germany-strong-indicators-mask-loss-of-competitiveness Thanks Brad
• Andrew Reid on new-north-sea-exploration-licenses-pose-threat-uks-future-energy-security

Asia

• Daniel Depetris on chinese-invasion-taiwan-isn-t-inevitable
• Suryaputra Wijaksana on global-energy-scarcity-south-china-sea
• noahopinion on can-india-industrialize
• Roland Rajah and Robert Walker on china-s-growth-prospects-after-zero-covid
• Stephanie Fillion on caution-tact-how-asian-countries-voted-ukraine-un
• Kim Ghattas on earthquake-syria-turkey-civil-war-humanitarian-aid
• Yair Rosenberg on israel-palestine-west-bank-illegal-settlement-netanyahu

Wonk

• Tim Harford on the-seven-types-of-email-you-should-never-send
• noahopinion on you-are-now-living-through-cold-war-2, stock-buybacks-dont-really-matter
• the conversable economist on biologics-and-biosimilars-a-test-for-intellectual-propery, winter-2023-journal-of-economic-perspectives-freely-online
• Dennis Desmond on beyond-spy-balloons-here-are-7-kinds-of-intelligence-spies-want-and-how-they-get-it
• C Raina McIntyre et al on yes-masks-reduce-the-risk-of-spreading-covid-despite-a-review-saying-they-dont
• Donald Rothwell on did-chinas-balloon-violate-international-law
• Peter Layton on chinese-grey-zone-spy-balloons-over-american-heartland
• Menzie Chinn on revisiting-exchange-market-pressure
• Mark Quigley on earthquake-footage-shows-turkeys-buildings-collapsing-like-pancakes-an-expert-explains-why
• coppolla comment on the-fatal-flaws-of-celsius-network

General

• Neil Durrant on 3-reasons-not-to-be-a-stoic-and-try-nietzsche-instead
• John Munro on learning-grammar-is-just-as-important-as-it-always-was-but-the-way-we-teach-it-has-changed
• Szymek Drobniak on new-bird-brain-study-shows-evolving-a-big-brain-depends-on-having-good-parents

Climate

• Real Climate on updates-to-model-observation-comparisons, the-established-ground-and-new-ideas
• and Then Theres Physics on climate-science-as-a-social-process
• David Appell on sea-ice-extent-update
• noahopinion on repost-why-im-so-excited-about-solar-and-batteries
• Moyhu on january-global-surface-templs-up-0014-from-december
• Met Office on are-we-expecting-a-sudden-stratospheric-warming, the-beautiful-game-in-a-changing-climate

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• writing-that-changed-my-life
  
• stocks-go-down-during-the-day-and-up-at-night
  
• checking-survey-representativeness-by-looking-at-canary-variables
  
• great-news-from-next-year-elife-is-eliminating-accept-reject-decisions-after-peer-review-instead-focusing-on-public-reviews-and-assessments-of-preprints
  
• great-news-from-next-year-elife-is-eliminating-accept-reject-decisions-after-peer-review-instead-focusing-on-public-reviews-and-assessments-of-preprints
  
• great-news-from-next-year-elife-is-eliminating-accept-reject-decisions-after-peer-review-instead-focusing-on-public-reviews-and-assessments-of-preprints
  
• R Bloggers on cricket-weighted-batting-average-in-r
• Kaiser Fung on strategies-for-validating-observational-studies
• econometric sense on what-is-new-and-different-about-difference-in-difference

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• righteous-anger
  
• croaking cassandra on harry-white-and-reconstructing-the-international-financial-system

Vox wonk

• boomerang-college-kids-unemployment-job-mismatch-and-co-residence
  
• interwar-trade-policy-netherlands-and-netherlands-east-indies
  
• governor-appointments-and-central-bank-independence
  
• institutional-investors-hedging-foreign-exchange-risk-investing-equities-abroad-can
  
• stabilising-financial-markets-lending-and-market-making-last-resort
  
• flight-from-russia
  
• scarring-hysteresis-and-investment-europe
  
• targeting-precision-medicine-evidence-prenatal-screening
  
• helping-ukraine-not-only-crucial-peace-europe-also-world-peace
  
• privatising-disability-insurance
  
• understanding-borders-and-conflict-economic-perspective
  
• stories-statistics-and-memory
  
• how-war-increasing-inequality-russia
  
• sweet-equality-sugar-property-rights-and-land-distribution-colonial-java
  

how many more rate hikes can we expect

 The RBA hiked the official cash rates another 25 basis points and said there are more to come.

Now plenty of people are saying the RBA is going in too hard and we might even have a recession.

Whoa there. Yes it is the RBA's job to talk tough but after the recession we had to have which if we believe the RBA was THEIR fault  ( SuperMac told us so) they are acutely aware of business surveys and their usefulness in gauging how price pressures are going. At present they are saying prices are falling!

We do know we have yet to see the impact of a whole lot of homebuyers having to switch from low fixed rates to higher floating rates. The RBA is more than aware if you cause a 'housing recession. them  onetary policy cannot do much.

Add all that together I see the RBA continuing to talk tough BUT if business surveys continue to show price pressures falling then perhaps we might only have one more rise and even then only 15 points. Perhaps it is more realistic to see another 25 point rise and then a final 15 point rise in April.

We shall wee

Helping Ukraine helps the World

 Gerard Roland writes a magnificent column at vox wonk as I call it.

helping-ukraine-not-only-crucial-peace-europe-also-world-peace

Do masks reduce the risk of spreading covid

 the answer is yes but there is nuance.

READ it.

climate models V observations

 Real Climate does an annual examination of looking at climate models versus observations.

not bad eh!

Around the Traps 3/2/23

 It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• croaking cassandra on reviewing-the-mpcs-remit
• renew economy on world-first-solar-methanol-plant-to-feed-off-port-augusta-solar-thermal-project, location-location-battery-storage-projects-jostle-for-position-to-back-up-wind-and-solar, sun-cable-its-much-more-viable-than-you-think-at-the-right-price, energy-arbitrage-sends-big-battery-revenue-to-new-record-high-in-2022, solar-farms-that-put-cow-comfort-and-crop-yield-ahead-of-harvesting-electrons,offshore-wind-industry-is-missing-a-crucial-piece-of-the-planning-puzzle, our-climate-challenge-is-our-greatest-opportunity-so-how-do-we-get-it-right, university-of-adelaide-researchers-successfully-split-seawater-to-produce-green-hydrogen, victorias-biggest-wind-farm-lures-major-new-investor-with-billions-earmarked-for-renewables
• Flavio Macau on whats-driving-the-potato-chip-shortage-and-when-will-it-pass
• Kathy Eagar on heres-who-decides-cause-of-death-how-death-certificates-work-and-whether-a-person-died-with-or-of-covid
• Rick Sarre and Lorana Bartels on discriminatory-impact-on-first-nations-people-coroner-calls-for-urgent-bail-reform-in-veronica-nelson-inquest
• Peter Layton on australia-s-return-must-win-wars
• John Finnigan et al on weve-lost-a-giant-vale-professor-will-steffen-climate-science-pioneer
• Kate Griffiths and Iris Chan on big-money-was-spent-on-the-2022-election-but-the-party-with-the-deepest-pockets-didnt-win
• Sam Roggeveen  on marles-torpedoes-french-subs-yet-explain-nuclear-advantage
• Ross Gittins on labors-new-plan-to-reduce-our-emissions-is-riddled-with-loopholes
• Hassan Vally on covid-remains-a-global-emergency-the-world-health-organization-says-but-were-at-a-transition-point-what-does-this-mean

Northern America

• eyes on the right on the-two-americas-on-religion Thanks Brad
• the conversable economist on the-bounce-in-disposable-personal-income
• Umair Irfan on texas-clean-energy-wind-solar-natural-gas-ercot-blackout
• Ian Millhiser on ron-desantis-supreme-court-constitution-death-penalty-execution-sixth-eight-amendment
• Menzie Chinn on cyclically-adjusted-federal-budget-balance, the-cyclically-adjusted-budget-balance-and-federal-debt-held-by-the-public-time-series, guest-contribution-gauging-recessions-with-the-jobs-workers-gap-january-2023
• noahopinion on professionalize-the-police, friend-shoring-vs-buy-american, threats-to-the-dollar-are-just-scare-stories
• run75441 on firearm-physical-injury-healthcare-costs-for-patients
• thinking about on the-specter-of-2016 Thanks Brad
• Jay Willis on the-second-funniest-detail-from-the-supreme-courts-leak-report Thanks Brad
• Ben Jacobs on george-santos-fake-resume
• Jeet Heer on gop-anti-abortion-extremism, tyre-nichols-killing-police-democrats
• David Frum on republican-midterm-election-performance-trump-dr-oz
• Jonathan Mingle on no-smoke-no-fire
• the grumpy economist on the-fed-and-debt-limit
• Institutional Economics on the-us-recession-that-isnt-the-contrarian

Europe

• Nikola Mikovic on how-russia-loses-allies-amid-war-ukraine
• Peter Sinclair on leapards-eating-his-face-putin-losing-gas-war-in-europe
• stumbling and mumbling on cargo-cult-economics
• Mainly Macro on sewage-in-rivers-and-on-beaches-may-sink-the-conservatives
• Phillips O'Brien on us-germany-ukraine-tanks-russia-nato
• Timothy Ash on ukraine-in-our-future
• renew economy on record-solar-and-wind-output-is-crushing-coal-in-eu-and-already-beating-gas
• Frank Bass on european-pressurized-reactors-nuclear-powers-latest-costly-and-delayed-disappointments

Asia

• Ratih Kabinawa and Permangas Dewanto on indonesia-gets-ball-rolling-domestic-worker-rights
• Rachel DuRose on zero-covid-china-lockdowns-future-pandemics-public-health
• Menzie Chinn on china-gdp-and-forecasts
• Sussan Heupner on why-the-violence-between-israel-and-the-palestinians-may-be-entering-a-devastating-new-phase
• Zahid Ahmed on is-terrorism-returning-to-pakistan
• Suryaputra Wijaksana on global-energy-scarcity-south-china-sea

Wonk

• Nicholas Farrelly and Adam Simpson on why-has-the-west-given-billions-in-military-aid-to-ukraine-but-virtually-ignored-myanmar
• Tim Harford on your-absurd-hypothetical-questions-answered
• noahopinion on would-breaking-up-google-really-do-any-good, vertical-communities, professionalize-the-police, why-does-chatgpt-constantly-lie
• John Quiggin on adani-and-madoff
• John Ehrenreich on lab-leak-three-years-debate-covid-origins
• Uneasy Money on a-new-version-of-my-paper-between-walras-and-marshall-mengers-third-way-is-now-available-on-ssrn
• Harold James on backlash-against-markets-globalization-growth-is-confused-and-flawed Thanks Brad
• Menzie Chinn on data-sources-a-compendium-updated
• sandwichman on the-unbearable-tightness-of-peaking
• the conversable economist on retirement-ages-some-international-comparisons
• Antonios Sarhanis on the-fertility-rate-the-best-damn-wellbeing-index-going-around

General

• Juliana Segura-Salazar and Kathryn Moore on the-hype-is-out-of-this-world-but-mining-in-space-wont-save-the-earth
• Jonti Horner on australia-is-finally-getting-a-last-chance-view-of-a-green-comet-not-seen-for-50-000-years
• Christian Wolf on why-do-black-holes-twinkle-we-studied-5-000-star-eating-behemoths-to-find-out

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on true-contrarians, the-escalator
• met office on how-do-climate-change-air-quality-and-our-health-interact
• Emma Marris on climate-change-paris-agreement-15-degrees-celsius-goal
• Skeptical Science on the escalator rises again
• Eric Nordbeg on win-win-how-solar-farms-can-double-as-havens-for-our-wildlife

Andrew Gelman ( mostly stats)

• the-importance-of-bumblers-and-pointers-in-science-and-the-division-of-labor
  
• grade-inflation-why-hasnt-italready-reached-its-terminal-stage
  
• you-wish-youre-first-to-invent-this-scale-transform-50-xx-240-x-7
  
• changes-since-the-1970s-esp-edition
  
• alberto-cairos-visualization-course
  
• disappointing-lack-of-institutional-memory-at-the-new-yorker
  
• on-the-ethics-of-pollsters-or-journalists-or-political-scientists-betting-on-prediction-markets
  
• the-undying-holiday-suicide-myth
  
• Kaiser Fung on know-your-data-34-we-reserve-the-right-to-refuse-service-to-anyone

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• nuttin

Vox Wonk

• internationalising-china
  
• theory-fair-ceo-pay
  
• market-integration-and-expansion-renewable-energy-evidence-chile
  
• traumatic-experiences-adversely-affect-lifecycle-labour-market-outcomes-next
  
• violence-loyalty-and-decline-black-marriages-us
  
• attention-and-social-tariffs-lessons-energy-crisis
  
• race-and-redistribution-us-experimental-analysis
  
• place-based-policies-italian-case-part-1-lot-money-little-or-no-growth
  
• effect-new-technologies-workers-jobs-and-skills
  
• place-based-policies-italian-case-part-2-mind-negative-side-effects
  
• distinguishing-between-common-and-cross-ownership-lessons-global-automobile-industry
  
• gender-gaps-academies-0
  

It is not looking good in Israel/ Palestine

 THIS is a very depressing read.

I think one of the largest roadblocks to peace is the inability of both Israelis and Palestinians to see the other as human. Take away the humanity and it becomes easy to murder