Abe Shinzo

 The assassination of Abe has provoked a few articles about him.

• Teesta Prakash
• Bryan Walsh
• David Frum
• Isaac Chotiner
• Noah Smith

Acca Dacca

 If you really love ACDC then it was only when Bon Scott was their singer.

Their best song quite easily was its a long to the shop if you want a chiko roll.

Here it is.

Around the Traps 8/7/22

 It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Esther Suckling and Alison Reeve on regional-towns-are-at-risk-of-being-wiped-out-by-the-move-to-net-zero-heres-their-best-chance-for-survival
• Paul Glasziou and David Henry on flu-may-be-back-but-covid-is-far-from-over-how-do-they-compare
• Dale Dominey-Howes on whats-causing-sydneys-monster-flood-crisis-and-3-ways-to-stop-it-from-happening-again
• Maryanne Macdonald et al on recognising-indigenous-knowledges-is-not-just-culturally-sound-its-good-science
• renew economy on cost-difference-is-staggering-why-aemo-roadmap-falls-short-of-100-renewables, costs-for-new-build-wind-and-solar-have-jumped-but-nothing-like-those-of-fossil-fuels, big-shift-in-language-transgrid-welcomes-new-urgency-in-transmission-plans, marginal-loss-factors-why-they-matter-and-where-they-bite, arena-shortlists-3gw-of-advanced-big-batteries-essential-for-100-renewable-grid, were-not-there-yet-bowen-says-capacity-design-needs-flexibility-and-emissions-goal, solar-duck-curve-why-we-must-fix-the-cause-and-not-just-the-symptoms
• David Peetz on how-australias-gig-workers-may-remain-contractors-under-labors-reforms
• Murray Goot on the-abss-notion-of-the-average-australian-makes-little-sense-heres-why
• Brian Cook and Tim Werner on to-stop-risky-developments-in-floodplains-we-have-to-tackle-the-profit-motive-and-our-false-sense-of-security
• James Pittock on patently-ridiculous-state-government-failures-have-exacerbated-sydneys-flood-disaster
• Isaac Gross on rates-rise-to-1-35-and-theres-no-stopping-now-the-rbas-on-a-mission-to-whip-inflation
• Robert Glasser on australias-finally-acknowledged-climate-change-is-a-national-security-threat-here-are-5-mistakes-to-avoid
• Stephen Duckett on how-has-covid-affected-australians-health-new-report-shows-where-weve-failed-and-done-well
• Johannes Nugroho on becoming-republic-will-improve-australia-s-image-asia
• Institutional Economics on the-rbas-latest-cash-rate-increase
• Raina MacIntyre on access-to-a-second-covid-booster-vaccine-has-been-expanded-to-people-30-years-and-over
• Croaking Cassandra on what-might-be-done-about-the-reserve-bank, consulting-on-the-remit

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on the-non-technical-recession-recession-of-2001, of-revisions-and-seasonality-in-the-pandemic-era
• Patrick Parenteau on the-supreme-court-has-curtailed-epas-power-to-regulate-carbon-pollution-and-sent-a-warning-to-other-regulators
• noahopinion on disinflation-begins, will-vc-produce-fewer-home-runs-in-the-future
• Michael Tab on evan-mcmullin-is-not-a-democrat-utah-democrats-are-supporting-his-senate-campaign-anyway
• can we still govern on the-courts-as-an-instrument-of-american-decline Thanks Nick Gruen
• letters from an american on June 30 2022 Thanks Nick
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-packing-roe-wade-voting-rights-jurisdiction-stripping
• Ken Melvin on scotus
• Nicole Narea on abortion-ballot-measures-california-vermont-kentucky-kansas-montana
• Christopher Kang on why-democrats-giving-mitch-mcconnell-judges
• 538 on the-supreme-courts-partisan-divide-hasnt-been-this-sharp-in-generations
• Emma Long on the-us-supreme-court-what-is-its-role-and-its-powers
• Zack Beauchamp on end-of-conservatism-roe
• Mary Harris on supreme-court-biden-pack-reform-conservatives-commission

Europe

• Stefan Wolff on g7-and-nato-summits-lay-bare-deep-and-hostile-divide-between-russia-and-china-and-the-west
• Greg Dolgopolov on how-solntsepyok-a-brutal-2021-propaganda-film-primed-russians-for-war-with-ukraine
• Carole Nakhle on russias-oil-is-in-long-term-decline-and-the-war-has-only-added-to-the-problem
• Basil Germode on ukraine-war-reclaiming-snake-island-is-kyivs-biggest-strategic-victory-so-far-heres-why
• Jen Kirby on boris-johnson-uk-cabinet-resignations-scandal-revolt,boris-johnson-prime-minister-resigns
• Mathew Sussex on russias-ukraine-invasion-is-slowly-approaching-an-inflection-point-is-the-west-prepared-to-step-up
• Tyler Cowen on how-bad-is-the-new-german-trade-deficit

Asia

• Amita Batra on india-s-trade-policy-needs-prioritise-region
• Shivangi Seth on why-india-needs-refugee-law
• Samuel Bashfield on british-indian-ocean-territory-and-rules-based-order
• David Tuffey on concerns-over-tiktok-feeding-user-data-to-beijing-are-back-and-theres-good-evidence-to-support-them
• Roland Rajah on india-s-economy-after-covid
• Tiara Dewanti on asean-and-pandemic-recovery-economy-rivalry
• Angela Lehman on under-pressure-chinese-international-graduates-new-china
• noahopinion on abe-shinzo-a-retrospective

Wonk

• John Hawkins on cryptocurrencies-are-great-for-gambling-but-lousy-at-liberating-our-money-from-big-central-banks
• Frank Bongiorno on are-we-learning-the-wrong-lessons-from-history
• Tim Harford on even-when-you-do-succeed-sometimes-it-pays-to-try-again
• the conversable economist on venture-capital-size-and-focus
• John Cochrane on how-much-do-interest-rates-help
• war on the rocks on the-other-big-lessons-that-the-u-s-army-should-learn-from-ukraine Thanks Brad
• John Quiggin on would-we-be-better-off-without-corporations
• Alex Tabarrok on the-mixed-economy-is-politically-stable
• Jacopo Ponticelli on austerity and anarchy Thank you Peter Whiteford
• Daniel Immerwahr on wielding-wheat-oceans-of-grain-nelson
• Stephen Coleman on the-fall-of-boris-johnson-any-democracy-should-look-to-his-case-and-ask-if-it-is-enabling-machiavellian-leaders
• noahopinion on americans-are-generally-richer-than-europeans

General

• Christopher Pollard on karl-marx-his-philosophy-explained
• Sallie Cowan et al on is-netball-actually-bad-for-knees-and-ankles-what-does-the-research-say

Climate

• Andrew Freedman on climate-change-extreme-weather-italy-australia-alaska

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• taking-theory-more-seriously-in-psychological-science
  
• i-know-what-they-meant-to-say-here-it-was-just-funny-how-they-expressed-it
  
• historical-journal-records-reveal-a-surge-of-methodological-distortions-in-recent-decades
  
• eventually-all-information-will-belong-to-whoever-has-the-best-lawyers
  
• fun-july-4th-statistics-story-too-many-melons-not-enough-dogs
  
• 3-examples-of-pos-publication-review-ecology-the-underground-economy-and-lockdowns
  
• solving-inverse-problems-using-bayesian-inference-with-fft-in-stan-from-python-this-example-has-it-all
  
• back-in-the-usa
  
• consequences-are-often-intended
  
• Kaiser Fung on know-your-data-34-coming-for-your-most-private-data

Econometrics

• Freakometrics on what responsibility for the algorithms, government intervention in catastrophe insurance markets, assurance bias discrimination and fairness

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• nuttin

Vox Wonk

• energy-balancing-act-between-security-and-transition
  
• faith-and-assimilation
  
• reducing-unavailability-stem-cell-donors
  
• null-result-penalty
  
• using-machine-learning-study-parenting-styles
  
• us-racial-wealth-gap-1860-2020
  
• structural-reforms-help-address-cost-living-crisis
  
• forced-displacement-gender-identity-norms-and-marital-stability-wake-war-ukraine
  
• welfare-can-discourage-crime-more-it-discourages-work
  
• treaty-sanctions-pre-emptive-use-nuclear-weapons
  
• learning-prices-does-not-come-free
  
• capturing-top-incomes-and-measuring-inequality-europe
  
• trade-family-formation-and-fertility-low-fertility-settings
  
• financial-crises-drivers-populism
  
• advance-private-sector-among-china-s-largest-companies-under-xi-jinping
  

The ABC gets it right and wrong

 The times they are depressing so I am going to write about something not very important.

In recent times the ABC have had to replace people in TV and radio ( in Sydney).

Replacing Leigh Sales with Sarah Ferguson made sense. If anything she is a better interviewer than Sales and she takes no  prisoners.

It is radio their changes make little sense. We eventually got rid of Fran Kelly on RN breakfast but replacing her with Patricia Karvelas was a poor choice. She was competent in the drive shift previously but in breakfast the world revolves around her. ( It is also why she is a poor Insiders hostess). She is not a great interviewer. Hamish McDonald was the perfect replacement. Like David Speers he lets his questions make all the noise that is needed. This is why politicians often get into trouble with him.

On 702 they moved James Valentine form early afternoons where he was good to breakfast. you should never reduce your strengths. Valentine simply does not click with breakfast and his replacement Josh Szeps is simply boring. 2BL have has a number of good breakfast presenters so why change?

Rant over

The RBA continues to raise interest rates

 Well the RBA raised official cash rates by 60 points yesterday. They are now at 1.35%. I would prefer them to be at 1.5%. This is because the neutral rate is somewhere between 1.5 and 2% and the sooner we get there the better.

I think we can assume an official cash rate of 2.5% by the end of the year if we take Lowe at his word. That would mean monetary policy is mildly contractionary. IF the Government reduces the structural  budget deficit significantly ( there was no reduction in the last budget) then that might be it.

However economics is not a science by educated guesswork. My GUESS is the RBA will take a breather at 2.5% and see what happens.  

Hopefully by the end of next year inflation will be in the 2-3% band. Hopefully

Faith and assimilation

 A fascinating paper on faith-and-assimilation. It examines Italian migration to the USA  between 1890 and 1920 .

It isn't long but it is very interesting

an article for stat nerds

 if you are into stats then read null-result-penalty