Israel Folau again

Rugby player and christian Israel Folau put out something on social media.
THIS basically shows how the media overall sees what Folau says.

Now before we go on we should examine rugby Australia's DIVERSITY POLICY.

Interesting eh!

Folau is talking about Heaven and Hell. Rugby Australia is talking about who can play rugby.

I can see a lot of legal work coming up if Rugby Australia attempts to say Folau has breached their policies.

Slow update:

Rugby Australia has sacked Folau. I will be interested if Folau takes legal action

Further Update:
Why has No-one who has criticised Folau read THIS
Croaking Cassandra on this.

Phillip Jensen magnificent on his first 'offence'

The Australian Christian League enters the fray.

As Brad De Long would say MOAR

Very Late update:
This is Terrible. An academic who doesn't even know the facts. Folau has NEVER argued against inclusion in rugby . He has actually done the opposite.

Paying off National Debt

Greg Jericho has a good article on this.
however he omits the most important feature of how Howard and his government cut debt.

Asset Sales. Sorry dear folks but budget surpluses did n't much in this area. Selling off Telstra did however

Poll Roundup

Kevin Bonham gives us his usual poll roundup.
As an added bonus we have Mark the Ballot giving us:

• poll-aggregation
• individual-seat-betting-markets

Amongst the many things that were polled we find major party supporters are latte drinkers.

I am a supporter of the flat white!

In case you are wondering

The operation went well.
Apparently they pull the gallbladder out of my belly button. This is why it is so sore.
Another reason is they found a hernia there and also treated that as well.
I am now on six weeks of doing very little. I cannot even take out the garbage.
I will now have the 'pleasure' of seeing the election close up and personal.

Yippee

Around the Traps 5/4/19

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• John Freebairn on the-false-hope-offered-by-talk-of-a-living-wage
• Mark Diesendorf on the-governments-electricity-shortlist-rightly-features-pumped-hydro-and-wrongly-includes-coal
• Rodney Tiffen on from-irreverence-to-irrelevance-the-rise-and-fall-of-the-bad-tempered-tabloids
• Tess Moriaty et al on bleaching-has-struck-the-southernmost-coral-reef-in-the-world
• Ross Gittins on the-budgets-getting-better-but-economys-getting-worse, budget-makes-frydenberg-unwitting-keynesdian-stimulator
• Croaking Cassandra on the-second-xi-takes-charge, immigration-is-inherently-a-political-issue, house-prices, pandering-to-the-prc, three-totally-unrelated-items, xinjiang-an-opportunity-for-ardern-and-bridges, not-happening-at-least-under-this-government
• Nicky Ison on labors-climate-policy-a-decent-menu-but-missing-the-main-course
• Ricardian Ambivalence on the-case-for-april-easing-bias, rba-sets-up-for-may-cut
• Richard Holden on frydenbergs-budget-looks-toward-zero-net-debt-but-should-this-be-our-aim
• Philip O'Neil on congestion-busting-infrastructure-plays-catch-up-on-long-neglected-needs
• Warren Hogan on iron-ore-dollars-repurposed-to-keep-the-economy-afloat-in-budget-2019
• Peter Martin on its-the-budget-cash-splash-that-reaches-back-in-time
• Brendan Coates on the-budget-super-change-that-helps-the-wealthy-at-the-expense-of-the-young
• Gary Mortimer on the-trouble-with-big-w-dont-blame-online-for-killing-discount-department-stores
• Robert Tanton et al on natsem-federal-budget-will-widen-gap-between-rich-and-poor
• Ross Gittins on budget-does-right-thing-for-wrong-reason
• Mathew Grey and Ben Phillips on those-future-tax-cut-promises-theyre-nowhere-near-as-big-as-youd-think
• 
  

Northern America

• Noahopinion on where-should-americans-live-if-they-live-abroad
• New Deal democrat on no-the-meuller-report-did-not-find-no-collusion
• Calculated Risk on a-few-comments-on-february-new-home-sales, public-and-private-sector-payroll-jobs-during-presidential-terms
• Robert J Shiller on was-ten-year-stock-market-boom-predictable Thanks Mark 
• the grumpy economist on operating-procedures
• James Hamilton on measuring-unemployment-and-labor-force-participation
• Andrew Prokop on mueller-report-release-redactions-subpoenas
• Andrew Gelman on n1-survey-points-to-beto-orourke-as-democratic-nominee-in-2020
• Sandwichman on copycat-crime-and-conscience-of-a-cultural-conservative-part-two
• run75441 on healthcare-insurance-history-2
• Jonathan Chait on my-article-saying-trump-was-compromised-by-russia-was-right Thanks Brad
• Nick Bunker on puzzling-over-u-s-wage-growth
• Larry Summers on a-broader-tax-base-that-closes-loopholes-would-raise-more-money-than-plans-by-ocasio-cortez-and-warren Thanks Mark

Europe

• John Quiggin on how-britain-kicked-coal
• Mainly Macro on will-brexit-make-austerity-worse, if-tories-lose-election-before-we-leave-Brexit-is-unlikely-to-happen
• stumbling and mumbling on decadent-tories, the-rise-of-moral-simplicity
• Eric Lonergan on time-ecb-use-monetary-power

Asia

• Robert E Kelly on south-korea-and-japan-pick-fight-don-t-expect-trump-care
• Barbara Slavin on labors-climate-policy-a-decent-menu-but-missing-the-main-course
• Andrew Nachemson on frustrated-wait-thailand-s-election-outcome
• Indrajit Roy on india-whats-at-stake-in-the-2019-elections
• the conversable economist on four-snapshots-of-chinas-growth-and-inequality

Wonk

• Noahopinion on \examining-mmt-model-in-detail
• Sandwichman on copycat-crime-and-conscience-of-a-cultural-conservative-part-one
• Branko Milanovic on francis-fukuyama-against-mainstream-economics Thanks Mark
• Brad Setser on when-tax-drives-trade-data
• Nick Rowe on interest-rates-and-money-growth
• Tim Harford on hy-happiness-is-easy-to-venerate-hard-to-generate
• Martina Lawless on economic-and-social-review-new-edition
• Tyler Cowen on new-issue-of-econ-journal-watch
• the conversable economist on the-unfairness-of-money-bail
• Nick Gruen on paul-krugmans-incredible-invisibility-trick-2, we-know-what-we-need-to-do-will-someone-tell-us-how
• promarket on economics-now-points-away-from-the-laissez-faire-approach Thanks Mark
• Larry Summers on ten-years-later-reflections-on-the-2008-09-financial-crisis Thanks Mark 
• stumbling and mumbling on why-rent-matters
• Liberty Street on the-keynesian-growth-approach-to-macroeconomic-policy-and-productivity Thanks Mark
• Roger Farmer on there-are-many-unemployment-rates-for-any-r

General

• David Appell on is-atheism-consistent-with-science
• John Cook on fitness-data-privacy

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on an-updated-bayesian-climate-sensitivity-estimate, existential-threat
• DESMOG on global-coal-industry-isnt-going-anywhere-yet
• Moyhu on march-ncepncar-global-surface-anomaly-up-0.19C-from-February
• Morgan Pratchett on coral-reproduction-on-the-great-barrier-reef-falls-89-after-repeated-bleaching
• Albert Van Dijk on australias-2018-environmental-scorecard-a-dreadful-year-that-demands-action
• Real Climate on first-successful-model-simulation-of-the-past-3-million-years-of-climate-change
• renew economy on australia-100-renewables-could-be-cheaper-quicker-and-easier-than-thought, the-shocking-regulatory-and-cultural-fail-in-australias-energy-transition
• arctic sea ice on piomas-april-2019

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• ben-lambert-2018-a-students-guide-to-bayesian-statistics
• david-weakliem-on-the-u-s-electoral-college
• heres-an-idea-for-not-getting-tripped-up-with-default-priors
• a-comment-about-p-values-from-art-owen-upon-reading-deborah-mayos-new-book
• another-bit-from-art-owen-this-time-dunking-on-ripoff-publishers
• another-bit-from-art-owen-this-time-dunking-on-ripoff-publishers
• impact-of-published-research-on-behavior-and avoidable-fatalities  
• thinking-about-abandon-statistical-significance-p-values-etc
• whats-a-good-default-prior-for-regression-coefficients-a-default-edlin-factor-of-1-2
• the-long-run-effects-of-americas-first-paid-maternity-leave-policy-i-need-that-trail-of-breadcrumbs

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• infographics-parades
• some-april-reading-for-econometricians
• what-is-permutation-test
• econometric sense on abandoning-statistical-significance
• Marc Bellamare on when in doubt standardise
• No Hesitations on inference-with-social-network-dependence

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• everything-we-dont-know
• Tyler Cowen on maoism-a-global-history, which-are-the-best-autobiographies-by-women
• Rutger Bregman on book-review-utopia-realists

Vox Wonk

• rd-investment-export-market-exposure-and-trade-policy
• how-patent-disclosure-fuels-subsequent-innovation
• public-debt-through-ages
• media-coverage-immigrant-criminality
• inequality-opportunity-income-inequality-and-economic-growth
• imf-s-new-macroprudential-database
• zombie-firms-weak-banks-and-restructuring
• local-fiscal-multipliers-and-spillovers-us
• tax-credit-foster-investment-human-capital-eu
• quantitative-easing-and-hot-potato-effect
• incarceration-unemployment-and-black-white-marriage-gap-us

Another Operation

Tomorrow I have a gallbladder operation.
It is only a one day operation and I should be back home at night.
I do get 6 weeks off where I cannot even take the garbage out!

I might have to put out Around the traps earlier than usual as I do not know yet what time the operation is.

The budget

A budget a few days before an election is called.

Why wouldn't the punters be cynical.?
Tax cuts ( albeit only paid at the end of the fiscal year) that CBA research says is roughly equal to a 50 bp rate cut. Yep that should be treated very cynically.

Main Points:

• The budget is stimulatory. ( Get that sinkers). Offer tax cuts without spending cuts ( as Howard and Costello did) and then you have a structural deterioration in the budget
• A lot of the Infrastructure spending is off budget.
• CBA research says 78% of the 'improvement' in the budget bottom line comes from revenue.
• The only reason ( well not the only reason but you get what I mean) for spending making a contribution is lack of spending on the NDIS
• Spending as a % of GDP is still too close to GFC levels. This government cannot even match Wayne Swan!
• The budget is not into the black, It is projected to be NEXT financial year. What if a trade war erupts or China goes backwards?? Economists s usually say a budget is balanced if it is between + or  - 1 % of GDP. Please note none of the projected surpluses get past 1% of GDP

Enough of me

Try:

• Peter Martin
• Warren Hogan
• Richard Holden 
• Greg Jericho

Whoopsy.
One final point. If the economy is strong then why is the cash rate a 1.5% with diverse respected analysts such as Ricardian Ambivalence and The Kouk suggesting the RBA should be cutting further in May!