Electricity is still very affordable

Alert readers of Around the Traps would have read an article by Ben Phillips on how the cost of electricity affects various households.

He finds that for most but not all households  there has been very little change on the proportion of money spent on electricity from ten years ago despite rises of some 117%!!

Around the Traps 12/10/18

It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on should-grant-robertson-be-able-to-bankrupt-new-zealand, race-and-the-living-standards-framework, ever-extending-regulation, looking-back-to-the-deposit-guarantee, confucius-institutes-the-prc-and-nz-authorities
• Ross Gittins on the-long-run-is-now-and-bills-are-arriving, sorry-small-business-has-no-special-sauce-for-jobs
• Ricardo Ambivalence on here-comes-the-housing-downturn, the-problem-with-aussie-housing
• Skye Tobin et al on australia-moves-to-el-nino-alert-and-the-drought-is-likely-to-continue
• The Kouk on the-bond-market-is-crashing-and-it-ll-affect-you
• John Quiggin on the-national-energy-market-is-an-abject-failure-its-time-for-a-publicly-owned-grid
• Liam Elphick on ruddock-report-constrains-not-expands-federal-religious-exemptions
• Paul Fritjers on the-china-us-cold-war-commences-was-turnbull-the-first-victim
• Greg Jericho on why-the-coalitions-half-baked-plan-to-push-migrants-into-the-regions-cannot-work, australias-climate-idiocracy-must-end-and-theres-no-time-to-waste
• Nanthis Bolan on we-need-more-carbon-in-our-soil-to-help-australian-farmers-through-the-drought
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-amazon-has-lifted-its-wages-but-the-implications-arent-as-good-as-you-might-think
• Ben Phillips on newsflash-for-most-energy-remains-affordable
• Sarah Wheeler and Celine Nauges on farmers-climate-denial-begins-to-wane-as-reality-bites

Northern America

• Chengxin Pan on pence-china-reviving-neoconservative-dream
• progrowth liberal on the-susan-collins-excuse
• Barkley Rosser on lock-her-up
• Robert Waldmann on sour-grapes
• Henry Farrell on kavanaugh
• Zack Beauchamp on nikki-haley-resign-news
• Nathaniel Rakish on a-big-blue-wave-could-overwhelm-the-gops-advantage-in-the-house
• Barry Eichengreen on dollar-could-lose-global-hegemony Thanks Brad
• Christopher Browning on suffocation-of-democracy
• John Cassidy on nikki-haley-resignation-hopeful-sign-for-opponents-of-trump
• Calculated Risk on /key-measures-show-inflation-decreased-YOY-in-august
• Larry Summers on driving across the US gave me a different perspective on the american economy thanks Mark
• Tim Duy on fed-is-intent-on-raising-rates-even-if-economy-sours Thanks Mark
• Noah Smith on trump-puts-supply-side-economics-to-its-final-test
• John Williams on moving towards normal monetary policy Thanks Mark
• Liberty Street on analyzing-the-effects-of-cfpb-oversight Thanks Mark
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-the-new-nafta
• the conversable economist on why-is-labor-force-participation-falling-for-prime age-males
• Institutional economics on us-bond-bears-are-right-but-for-all-the-wrong-reasons

Europe

• stumbling and mumbling on the-state-profits, our-insular-culture
• Timur Kuran and Dani Rodrik on how-erdogan-caused-turkey-collapse

Asia

• James Laurenceson on world-politics-explainer-deng-xiaopings-rise-to-power
• Rodger Shanahan on wheres-jamal
• Gabriel Wilder on xi-jinping-thought-beaming-live-tonight
• Alexia Underwood on jamal-khashoggi-saudi-arabia-istanbul-disappearance
• Kenneth Rogoff on /economic-model-of-crazy-rich-asia Thanks Mark
• Promarket on inequality-in-the-middle-east Thanks Mark

Wonk

• Mainly Macro on how-left-stopped-being-party-of-working-class, talk-on-where-macroeconomics-went-wrong
• Tim Harford on why-big-companies-squander-brilliant-ideas
• The conversable economist on blackwhite-racial-inequality, economics-nobel-2018-william-nordhaus-and-paul-romer, how-best-to-reintegrate-ex-prisoners, primary-care-expanding-role-of-nurse-practioners
• Tyler Cowen on william-nordhaus-paul-romer-win-nobel-prize-economics, paul-romer-won-nobel-prize-economics, romer-nordhaus-are-deserving-picks-for-economics-nobe
• A Fine Theorem on how-we-create-and-destroy-growth-a-nobel-for-romer-and-nordhaus Thanks Mark
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-bill-nordhaus-paul-romer-nobel-prize-winners
• Dianne Coyle on investment-efficiency-cost-benefit-analysis Thanks Mark
• Cecchetti and Schoenholtz on inflation-and-price-measurement-a-primer Thanks Mark
• Capital Ebbs and Flows on the-continuing-dominance-of-the-dollar Thanks Mark
• Joshua Gans on a-nobel-prize-for-breaking-through-the-hurdles-placed-by-economists
• and Then Theres Physics on ceci-nest-pas-un-sokal
• Croaking Cassandra on real-interest-rates
• Stephen Grenville on key-role-new-imf-chief-economist
• Peter Dorman on nobel-prizes-in-economics-awarded-and-withheld
• Sandwichman on the-ipcc-15-c-report-and-ten-hour-week
• Joseph Joyce on the-continuing-dominance-of-the-dollar
• Coppolla comment on vitor-unbound
• Brad Setser on russia-china-and-absence-global-funding-us-fiscal-deficit Thanks Brad
• Liberty Street on why-do-banks-target-roe Thanks Mark
• stumbling and mumbling on adam-smiths-two-economies

General

• Tyler Cowen on speed-skyscraper-construction-declining, news-cycle-getting-shorter-and-shorter

Climate

• Iain Stewart on australia-has-two-decades-to-avoid-the-most-damaging-impacts-of-climate-change
• Mark Howden and Rebecca Colvin on new-un-report-outlines-urgent-transformational-change-needed-to-hold-global-warming-to-1-5-c
• and Then Theres Physics on climate-impacts
• Moyhu on september-global-surface-templs-unchanged-from-august
• Graham Readfearn on ipcc-report-says-1-5c-climate-target-reachable-only-rapid-fossil-fuel-phase-out
• Real Climate on ipcc-special-report-on-1-5oc
• David Roberts on climate-change-global-warming-scenarios-ambition
• Open Mind on global-warming-1-5c-or-less, the-global-warming-signal, global-warming-how-far-to-1-5c, global-temperature-for-really-stupid-people
• Kumuda Simpson on what-do-about-warming-planet
• Amy Prendagast on archaeology-can-help-us-prepare-for-climates-ahead-not-just-look-back
• James empty blog on that-ipcc-thing
• Real climate on pre-industrial-anthropogenic-co2-emissions-how-large

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• present-each-others-posters
• wow-politics-elsewhere-weird-whassup-l-aids-healthcare-foundation
• rising-test-scores-reported-stagnant-test-scores
• Colm McCarthy on statistical-codology
• rising-test-scores-reported-stagnant-test-scores
• perhaps-try-big-scatterplot-one-dot-per-dataset
• golden-rule-of-nudge
• functional-programming-languages-popular-programming-languages-community
• limitations-of-limitations-of-bayesian-leave-one-out-cross-validation-for-model-selection
• Eran Raviv on test-of-equality-between-two-densities
• John Cook on prime-interruption
• Mayo on excursion-2-taboos-of-induction-and-falsification-tour-i-first-stop ,it-should-never-be-true-though-it-is-still-often-said-that-the-conclusions-are-no-more-accurate-than-the-data-on-which-they-are-based, excursion-2-tour-ii-3rd-stop-falsfication-pseudoscience-induction-2-3

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• the-refereeing-process-in-economics-journals
• Freakometrics on monte carlo techniques to create counterfactuals

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• making-economic-miracles
• the-joy-of-economic-geography
• a-hymn-to-expertise

Vox Wonk

• public-education-and-intergenerational-mobility
• bankers-liability-and-risk-taking
• welfare-state-besides-globalisation-and-ageing-forces
• how-elite-universities-shape-upward-mobility
• economic-costs-discriminatory-ideology
• role-intangible-capital-explaining-superstar-firms
• innovation-and-production-global-economy
• trump-doctrine-international-trade-part-one
• trump-doctrine-international-trade-part-two
• cutting-corruption-tax-way-out-greece
• differences-citation-patterns-across-journal-tiers-economics
• global-value-chains-and-export-elasticities-all-linkages-matter
• regulating-cryptocurrencies-assessing-market-reactions
• reforms-are-too-important-be-left-reformers
• turning-national-growth-indexed-bonds-european-assets
• economic-effects-brexit-evidence-stock-market
• /wild-west-information-markets
• when-or-where-buy-under-saw-tooth-gasoline-price-cycles
• some-simple-bitcoin-economics
• increasing-effectiveness-and-ownership-european-fiscal-rules
• how-we-create-and-destroy-growth-2018-nobel-laureates
• methodology-measuring-collaborative-economy
• how-digital-platforms-reduce-moral-hazard
• new-ideas-about-new-ideas-paul-romer-nobel-laureate
• effectiveness-large-scale-asset-purchases

Expelling gay kids?

Yesterday in breathless fashion we were emblazoned with the information gay kids could be expelled from 'religious' schools. See HERE for all the actual information.

This gets a bit boring for me but here goes again in no order of importance in relation to Christian schools,

Being homosexual is NOT a sin. Having sex outside marriage ( where there is a husband and wife) is.
Thus it is very easy to see straight away many more heterosexuals are affected then homosexuals.

No-one but no-one is forced to either apply for a job in a Christian school or enrol their children.
Teachers are affected as they enter into a contract to uphold the School's values. If they lie about it or flagrantly publicises their relationship as occurred recently in WA then yes you will be sacked.

Students are a different kettle of fish. no student has ever been expelled for being gay, probably for the above reasons.

The only scenario I could foresee is if the student ( or the parents much more likely) made public the student was engaged in fornication and openly paraded such beliefs. If after  counselling the student continued on this course then the School would have no option.  The student and their parents would be undertaking a political exercise.

I think this is unlikely.

The whole thing is much ado about nothing.

A couple of home grown articles

Two interesting local articles from two of my favourite bloggers.

Firstly we have the kouk on the-bond-market-is-crashing-and-it-ll-affect-you.

Next we have ricardo ambivalence on here-comes-the-housing-downturn. ( more  writing please)

It seems to me one thing stands out.The $A will fall.

Next financial year might not be the windfall the government expects.

The IPPC Report

Sorry I have not read it. however Real Climate has done a neat job if you wish to do so.

Here is: Mark Howden and Ruth Colvin

The US Supreme Court loses respect

When Brett Kavanaugh became a Supreme court judge the institution lost a lot of respect.

This again showed how Trump is no conservative. He clearly does not uphold institutions at all.Indeed he likes to destroy them. What is horrifying from this nomination process is that all the Republicans have joined him in desecrating important institutions.

There were the gravest of charges made against Kavanaugh. This should have involved a lengthy and quite thorough investigation. Not one that even comedians can show up as slipshod.

Imagine an investigative journalist examines these accusations in quite detail and find them corroborated at a later date!
The US Supreme court would be demeaned and the FBI been seen as a player in a political game.

The very quick investigation where the accuser was not even talked to did NOT declare Kavanugh not guilty of such charges and it never was. Yet for any person to sit on the Supreme Court that is what had to occur.

the US Supreme court has always been a political one. Now it is an overtly political one as Zack Beauchamp writes .

David Glasner criticises Kavanaugh testimony to the Senate.

Like his former boss Kenneth Starr Kavanaugh has changed his colours on whether anybody can investigate a sitting President. It seems it is dependent on whether the sitting President is a Democrat or Republican.

Kavanaugh's own testimony was very partisan and the linked article by Beauchamp shows how this will cause damage to the Supreme Court.

The Supreme court and the FBI are very important institutions of US polity. Their demeaning is not good for democracy.

Any conservative worth their salt would know and understand this.

Postscript

The President is entitled to nominate anyone he or she wants to. The Senate is entitled to accept or reject the nomination. IMHO this nomination should have been rejected because the man is clearly a political animal.
As I said previously without a thorough investigation a taint is over Kavanugh and will  always be over him.  I do not like it when a man cannot even admit to being drunk at either school or Uni. If he cannot admit that what can he actually admit.

I would like to see Roe V Wade overturned.I would like to see it done in a very legal way. doing it in an obvious political way will merely foster the current differences further

Around the Traps 5/10/18

It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Audrey Courtey and Halim Rane on why-the-media-needs-to-be-more-responsible-for-how-it-links-islam-and-islamist-terrorism
• Elise Bant on three-simple-steps-to-fix-our-banks
• Croaking Cassandra on what-is-the-reserve-banks-monetary-policy, the-government-keeps-film-subsidies-on, a-bare-pass-mark-for-the-board, the-prc-and-the-prime-minister, Makhlouf on China
• Ross Gittins on digital-disruption-is-changing-us-for-better-or-worse, how-better-business-culture-is-within-reach, why-so-many-businesses-are-behaving-badly
• Ian Cook on australias-obsession-with-opinion-polls-is-eroding-political-leadership
• Peter Whiteford on relax-the-divide-between-the-taxed-and-the-taxed-nots-isnt-new-and-doesnt-buy-elections
• Australian Parliamentary Library on Discount-rates-for-commonwealth-infrastructure-projects
• Tony Walker on shortens-difficult-dance-on-national-security-should-not-limit-scrutiny-of-home-affairs
• Greg Jericho on axing-the-tampon-tax-seems-a-good-move-but-is-it-the-best-move

Northern America

• Andrew Samwick on fiscal-recklessness-2018-edition Thanks Mark 
• Vanessa Williamson and Jackson Gode on tax-cuts-the-gift-that-keeps-not-giving Thanks Mark
• Macro Musings on et-tu-john-williams
• Barkley Rosser on i-was-wrong-us-mexico-trade-deal-lives
• Mike Callaghan on nafta-usmca-what-in-name
• Tim Duy on the-fed-s-no-longer-guided-by-concept-of-neutral-rates Rhanks Mark
• Economic Principals on the centre held in 2008 Thanks Mark
• Robert Shapiro ondont-be-fooled-working-americans-are-worse-off-under-trump Thanks Tyler Cowen
• Liberty Street on the-cost-of-regulatory-capital Thanks Mark
• Daniel Drezner on the-world-is-laughing-at-president-trump Thanks Brad
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-september-employment-report
• the comversable economist on biggest-us-export-to-china-spending-by-chinese-tourists
• promarket on uber-kill-real-cost-ride-sharing Thanks Mark
• regulatory review on moran-epa-moves-scale-back-methane-rules Thanks Mark
• Nate Silver on is-kavanaugh-helping-republicans-midterm-chances

Europe

• Mainly Macro on the-post-brexit-vote-trade-boost-that-never-was, how-media-helped-turn-worst-recovery-in-a-100-years-into -a-strong-recovery
• long and variable on guest-post-by-will-bott-on-the-democratic-legitimacy-of-a-second-referendum
• Coppolla comment on checkmate
• stumbling and mumbling on when-detail-matters

Asia

• James Chinn on najib-charged-mahathir-wins
• Robert E Kelly on fawning-and-flummery-wining-over-love-sick-donald
• Anthony Ware and Coustas Laotides on  aung-san-suu-kyis-extraordinary-fall-from-grace

Wonk

• the conversable economist on some-notes-on-corporations-and-social-values , when-information-flows-became-fast, latin-america-monetary-and-fiscal-history
• Kruggers on the-economic-future-isnt-what-it-used-to-be-wonkish Thanks Mark
• stumbling and mumbling on ideology-for-normal-people, what-counterfactuals-dont-tell-us
• Brad De Long on is-there-any-reason-to-fear-low-interest-rates, how-important-was-the-financial-panic-as-a-cause-of-the-great-recession
• Stochastic Change on energy-intensity-growth-and-technical-change
• Liberty Street on resolving-too-big-to-fail Thanks Mark
• IMF blog on central-bank-credibility-pays-off-in-times-of-stress Thanks Mark
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-explaining-weak-investment-growth-after-the-great-recession-a-macro-panel-analysis
• Understanding society on social-mobility-disaggregated Thanks Mark

General

• Stephen Holden on retraction-of-a-journal-article-doesnt-make-its-findings-false
• Tyler Cowen on sokal-squared-hoax

Climate

• David Appell on sharp-sst-spike-upward-to-el-nino-state
• open mind on multiple-testing
• Giles Parkinson on tesla-big-battery-defies-skeptics-sends-industry-bananas-over-performance
• moyhu on september-ncepncar-global-surface-unchanged-from-august
• Yyler cowen on robert-pindyck-climate-change-models
• Umair Irfan on hurricane-florence-2018-devastation-climate-change-flood-sea-level-rise
• Peter Sinclair on is-china-hiding-a-renegade-coal-tsunami
• Graham Readfearn on earths-climate-monsters-could-be-unleashed-as-temperatures-rise

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• people-are-missing-the-point-on-wansink-so-whats-the-lesson-we-should-be-drawing-from-this-story
• statistical-modeling-causal-inference-social-science-regrets-decision-hire-cannibal-p-hacker-writer-large
• someone-says-quote-exact-quote-misquotes
• the-2018-midterms
• moral-cowardice-requires-choice-action
• david-weakliem-points-economic-cultural-issues-can-less-moralized
• six-signs-scientism-disagree-haack
• ivy-league-football-saw-large-reduction-in-concussions-after-new-kickoff-rules
• fudged-statistics-iraq-war-death-toll-still-circulating-today
• Kaiser Fung on new-facebook-data-breach-and-the-importance-of-business-intelligence
• Mayo on excursion-2-taboos-of-induction-and-falsification-tour-i-first-stop, it-should-never-be-true-though-it-is-still-often-said-that-the-conclusions-are-no-more-accurate-than-the-data-on-which-they-are-based

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• essential-fall-reading
• a-shout-out-for-replication-network
• No Hesitations on rcts-vs-rdds, tyranny-of-top-5-econ-journals
• Marc Bellamare on elasticities and the inverse hyperbolic sine transformation

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• enlightened-economist-2018-prize-longlist
• once-upon-a-time-in-the-british-economy
• Tim Harford on review-of-the-cost-benefit-revolution-by-cass-sunstein
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox wonk

• third-party-labour-market-effects-china-s-exports
• culture-matters-saving-behaviour
• hard-brexit-hard-decisions-and-irexit
• innovating-less-developed-regions-europe-and-north-america
• 300-million-week-output-cost-brexit-vote
• adapt-or-be-flooded
• real-exchange-rate-global-value-chains-and-manufacturing-performance
• bank-performance-under-negative-interest-rates
• euro-area-reform-anatomy-debate
• how-family-planning-policies-reshape-life-chinese-elderly
• central-bank-announcements-and-transmission-monetary-policy
• impacts-export-taxes-agricultural-trade
• subsidising-long-term-care
• accounting-accountability-evolution-ecb-s-accountability-practices-during-crisis
• new-evidence-economics-immigration-uk
• finance-and-pollution
• stabilising-virtues-central-banks-haircuts
• cryptocurrency-valuation-and-roles-tokens