Do we have any idea of how to counter violent extremism? No!

Matteo Vergani at the ever excellent Lowy Institute writes a great article on alarming-truth-about-countering-violent-extremism-programs-we-dont-know-what-works.
This is a huge problem because in Australia as in many other countries like the USA the problem of terrorism is because of home grown terrorists. They do not come to the country as terrorists!

The Labour market and economics

Two really interesting articles on the labour market and the theories of economics that surrounds it.

First we have Noah Opinion ( Noah Smith) on why-101-model-doesnt-work-for-labor-markets
Second we have stumbling and mumbling ( Chris Dillow) on against-marginal-product.

Both very  informative and cutting to the economic bone. Yes I am slightly changing my views on the labour market.

The Resurrection is central to Christianity

The physical resurrection of Jesus is all important to Christianity. If it did not occur then Christianity is shite.
A physical resurrection means Jesus is God and man. As Thomas the apostle said when viewing the hole in his hand. My Lord and My God.

We know Jesus rose from the dead on the third day because he was seen by a lot of witnesses. The Jewish religious leaders could not dispute this at all.

We also know because his apostles were changed men willing to die for him after this occurred. They did not hide as before and were not silent as before.
This is why Christianity spread.

On a side-issue Sinclair Davidson attempts to be too clever by half.

Sunday is the 1st day of the week not the 0th day. Saturday is the 7th day of the week not the 6th as Davidson attests!
Thursday is the 1st day of a cricket test in Australia not the 0th day. It last 5 days not 4 days!
Sometime when you try and be too clever you end up being very stupid.

Around the Traps 14/4/17 Easter Friday Edition

It is time for Around the Traps again.
It is Easter so plenty of updating over the long weekend.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on grant-robertson-made-my-day
• Rodney Maddock on three-charts-on-mortgage-stress-it-isnt-as-bad-as-you-might-think
• Robert Phiddian on farewell-john-clarke-in-an-absurd-world-we-have-never-needed-you-more
• Ross Gittins on too-many-stuff-ups-about-to-put-economic-reform-in-reverse, the-local-school-is-in-decline-reducing-social-cohesion, how-our-penchant-for-magic-numbers-gets-us-into-trouble
• David Glance on three-charts-on-australias-growing-appetite-for-fast-broadband
• Graham White on explainer-how-wage-growth-contributes-to-the-economy
• Croaking Cassandra on possible-reserve-bank-reforms-some-reactions , slashing-immigration-really-is-quite-easy , still-going-nowhere-the-governments-exports-target
• Matthew Thomas on Work_for_the_Dole_program_to_stay
• The Kouk on was-that-the-sound-of-the-economy-hitting-a-brick-wall , -got-a-massive-mortgage-rest-easy-for-now-you-could-get-a-rate-cut , the-jobs-data-remain-glum
• Greg Jericho on scott-morrison-makes-case-for-negative-gearing-change-despite-ruling-it-out , the-latest-tax-data-proves-it-negative-gearing-benefits-the-rich-the-most
• Gary Bouma on how-religion-rises-and-falls-in-modern-australia
• Nick Gruen on making-the-reserve-bank-peoples-bank

Northern America

• Jacob Hacker on an-american-sickness Thanks Mark
• Larry Summers on the-us-must-work-on-its-economic-relationship-with-china Thanks Mark
• David Alpher on why-cant-america-just-take-out-assad
• David Beckworth on a-challenge-to-feds-normalization-plans
• new deal democrat on march-jobs-report-participation-up-unemployment-down-wage-growth-miserly , prime-working-age-employment-up-participation-up-finally-now-how-about-wages
• Barkely Rosser on which-is-more-important-china-or-syria
• Timothy Taylor on us-health-care-costs-same-items-compared-with-other-countries , us-polling-on-attitudes-toward-trade
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on  fed-watch-solid-employment-report
• Liberty street on financial-crises-and-the-desirability-of-macroprudential-policy Thanks Mark
• Nouriel Roubini on trump-republicans-tax-reform-failure Thanks Mark
• Ben Bernanke on how-big-a-problem-is-the-zero-lower-bound-on-interest-rates , the-zero-lower-bound-on-interest-rates-how-should-the-fed-respond Thanks Mark
• Justin Fox on the-de-electrification-of-the-u-s-economy Thanks Mark
• Robert Waldmann on to-me-the-common-assertion-about-health-care-reform-reform-and-tax-reform-makes-no-sense
• CBPP on tax-cuts-for-the-rich-arent-an-economic-panacea-and-could-hurt-growth Thanks Mark
• Calculated Risk on key-measures-show-inflation-close-to-2%-in-March
• Josh Marshall on trump-the-problem-of-militant-ignorance Thanks Brad
• Macromania on sectoral-and-occupational-trends-in-us-labour-market

Europe

• Anne-Marie Balbi on sweden-unites-wake-terror-attack
• Mainly Macro on the-brexit-depreciation-and-exports
• coppolla comment on libor-and-bank
• Kruggers on europe-has-problems-but-le-pen-is-not-the-answer, the-french-ourselves
• long and variable on a-national-minimum-wage-probably-should-be-set-to-reduce-employment
• stumbling and mumbling on the-edge-of-competency
• Banque de France on brexit+negotiations+hawks+doves+and+chickens Thanks Mark
• Daniel Nichanian on what-you-need-to-know-about-frances-far-right

Asia

• Brad Setser on so-is-china-pegging-to-the-dollar-or-to-a-basket , when-did-china-manipulate-its-currency Thanks Mark
• Lydia Khalil on egypt-s-copts-caught-between-egyptian-state-and-isis
• Brad Setser on does-currency-pressure-work-the-case-of-taiwan
• Elliot Brennan on electioneering-cambodia-war-debt-and-china-s-favour
• Liberty Street on the-end-of-chinas-export-juggernaut
• Mehmet Ozalp on explainer-the-war-in-syria-and-the-possibility-of-removing-assad
• Anas Iqtait on palestinian-authority-s-quest-survival-and-relevance
• James Hamilton on chinas-tetralemma

Wonk

• David Andolfatto on fiscal-over-monetary-policy
• Carola Binder on happiness-as-macroeconomic-policy-objective
• Timothy Taylor on interview-with-angus-deaton-on-death-rates etc  , addressing-dislocation-costs-of-trade , the-economics-of-horseshoe-crab-blood
• Olivier Blanchard on need-least-five-classes-macro-models Thanks Mark
• Huon Curtis on explainer-shadow-banking-and-where-it-came-from
• Mainly Macro on economics-is-inexact-science , henry-farrell-on-economists-and-austerity, when-journalism-becomes-propaganda
• Noah Smith on keynesian-economics-is-hot-again , here-s-one-more-thing-to-blame-on-senior-management , ricardo-reis-defends-macro , why-101-model-doesnt-work-for-labor-markets
• Douglas Campbell on a-quick-theory-of-industrial-revolution Thanks Mark
• Nick Bunker on value-added/how-corporate-profit-shifting-distorts-the-measurement-of-u-s-productivity Thanks Mark
• Jared Bernstein on larry-summers-of-all-people-misses-chinas-role-in-secular-stagnation Thanks Mark
• Ricardo Reis on is something really wrong with macroeconomics Thanks Mark
• Paul Frijters on will-robots-take-all-our-jobs-the-long-run-economic-view
• stumbling and mumbling on on-mainstream-economics

General

• Chris Bertram on asylum-seekers-have-to-eat-too
• stumbling and mumbling on the-sporting-life-taxes
• Keiran Hardy on explainer-why-some-acts-are-classified-as-terrorism-but-others-arent
• Roger Shanahan on popes-and-islamists
• John Quiggin on burden-of-proof

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on toys-pram-out
• Real Climate on what-is-the-uncertainty-in-the-earths-temperature-rise, model-projections-and-observations-comparison-page
• Peter Sinclair on great-barrier-reef-bleached-again-by-climate-change
• Bank Underground on green-investment-for-busy-people-retail-investors-need-help-to-navigate-towards-the-2c-climate-goal Thanks Mark
• Moyhu on templs-update-now-march-warmer-tha-feb
• Brian Schmidt on first-quarter-of-2017-is-warmer-than-the-2016-annual-average
• John Abraham on worrisome-signs-for-greenland-ice

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• combining-independent-evidence-using-bayesian-approach-without-standard-bayesian-updating
• hot hand stuff
• mmore-from-ppnas
• stacking-pseudo-bma-and-aic-weights
• pizzagate-update-response-cornell-university-media-relations-office
• bayesian-posteriors-calibrated
• air-rage-rage
• i-wanna-be-ablated
• efron-transition-wit-wisdom-statistical-elders
• Kaiser Fung on my-pre-existing-united-boycott-and-some-musing-on-randomness-and-fairness
• Noah Smith on  statistical-significance-is-overrated

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• nutin, too many easter eggs?
• jan-kiviets-book-on-monte-carlo-sinulation
• no Hesitations on on-inefficiency-of-pseudo-out-of-sample-model-selection

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• enlightenment-and-anti-enlightenment
• actually-existing-capitalism
• how-can-financial-services-serve
• the-big-picture-and-it-isnt-pretty
• Tim Harford on undercover-friday-8
• Doverbeach on daily-reading-9, /daily-reading-11

Vox Wonk

• religious-decentralisation-and-autocracy-case-islam
• online-exploration-content-choice-and-echo-chambers
• robots-and-jobs-evidence-us
• trade-benefits-foreign-banks
• government-quality-and-returns-infrastructure-investment
• austerity-aftermath-great-recession
• progress-benchmarking-macroprudential-policy-strategies
• new-approach-identifying-causal-mechanisms
• subsidiarity-still-key-europe-s-institutional-problems
• ethnic-segregation-and-spatial-income-inequality
• tax-reforms-and-top-incomes
• health-spending-it-s-not-just-about-ageing
• understanding-inflation-in-india
• european-and-asian-incomes-1914-new-take-great-divergence
• global-crisis-and-regional-employment-europe

Austerity still sucks

wow,

More evidence that contractionary fiscal policy is contractionary. We knew this for sure  when Adam Posen showed this to be the case in Japan in the 90s and beyond.

Now we have another article confirming this from Vox wonk as I call it.

Contractionay fiscal pollicy only makes sense as Keynes said in 1936 when economic times are good. You then make room for the private sector. This is why Keynesian economics is so much more austere than classical economics in those conditions. Here in Australia we saw it first with Keating and then with Costello.

However if you introduce it in a slowdown the private sector in contracting thus so will the economy.

If only Katesy understood basic economics, Hey Katesy how many countries had a recovery using your policies?  It is those damned Keynesian statisticians again?!

As a bonus Brad De Long on Noah Smith on how Keynesian economics is hot again

Transport Infrastructure

I have always been a supporter of transport infrastructure that has been properly researched.


The latest article on this from Vox wonk shows the benefits of spending on roads is different to what you may have thought.

Around the Traps 7/4/17

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie.Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ross Gittins on economists-changing-view-of-labour-market , politicians-addicted-to-appearance-of-success , how-politicians-use-claims-about-jobs-to-mislead-us
• The Kouk on to-cut-company-tax-or-not-that-is-the-question , forecasting-and-market-update-trading-the-rba-error , what-rba-governor-lowe-actually-said-on-housing-it-s-supply
• Thomas the Think Engine on can-we-ever-get-road-user-charging-to-work
• Arzane Tarapore on three-ways-improve-australias-intelligence-capability
• Croaking Cassandra on housing-governments-and-public-opinion , the-new-zealand-initiatives-manifesto , nzsf-tries-to-debunk-common-myths, appointing-an-acting-governor-what-the-documents-show, imbalances-in-new-zealand-and-australia
• Philip O'Neil on stumbling-into-the-future-living-with-the-legacy-of-the-great-infrastructure-sell-off
• Rachel Ong on governments-are-trapped-in-a-vicious-cycle-of-housing-policies-and-prices
• John Quiggin on margins
• Greg Jericho on is-there-a-housing-bubble-or-isnt-there
• Ryan Goss on australian-politics-explainer-the-writing-of-our-constitution
• Joelle Gergis on northern-nsw-is-no-stranger-to-floods-but-this-one-was-different

Northern America

• Brad De Long on i-see-john-cochrane-has-tried-to-make-an-april-fools-day-joke-of-sorts-about-obamacare
• Kruggers on of-tweets-and-trade
• Promarket on economists-totality-evidence-underscores-concentration-problem-u-s , new-economy-enables-winners-capture-much-welfareThanks Mark
• Timothy Taylor on a-stroll-through-us-trade-statistics , six-patterns-behind-us-productivity-slowdown
• Kathleen Romig on trumps-budget-director-gets-social-security-disability-insurance-wrong Thanks Mark
• Lane Kenworthy on do-election-outcomes-matter Thanks Mark
• Robert Schiller on trump-bull-market-stocks Thanks Mark 
• David Beckworth on a-challenge-to-feds-normalization-plans
• Leonid Bershidsky on the-gdp-is-a-flawed-but-magical-indicator Thanks Mark
• Menzie Chinn on soft-vs-hard-news-us-gdp-edition , first-year-2017-the-uncertain-future-of-globalization
• Sam Wang on what-happened-in-march
• Laura Tyson on trump-mexico-renegotiate-nafta Thanks Mark
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-lots-to-chew-on-in-the-fomc-minutes , fed-likely-to-discount-weakness-in-march-employment-report
• Nate Silver on nuking-the-filibuster-may-hurt-republicans-in-the-long-run
• Ryan Lizza on susan-rice-and-the-latest-bogus-attempt-to-justify-trumps-wiretapping-tweet
• Brad Plumer on climate-policy-surprises-trump
• Yochi Dreazen and  Zach Beauchamp on trump-syria-policy-assad-chemical-weapon-tillerson-obama
• Andrew Prokop on steve-bannon-trump-shakeup
• Calculated Risk on public-and-private-sector-payroll-jobs-under-various-Presidents
• David Leonhardt on the-original-lie-about-obamacare Thanks Brad
• Brad De Long on lets-talk-about-cea-chair-nominee-designate-kevin-hassett
• Justin Wolfers on upshot/the-economy-may-be-stuck-in-a-near-zero-world Thanks Mark

Europe

• Stochastic trend on from-wood-to-coal-directed-technical-change-in-the-UK Thanks Mark
• stumbling and mumbling on brexit-as-raising-the-inflation-target
• Simon Wren-Lewis on why-rejoining-eu-is-so-problematic , brexit-and-bbc
• Thomas Sampson on guide-post-brexit-trade-negotiations Thanks Mark
• Bank Underground on big-data-jigsaws-for-central-banks-the-impact-of-the-swiss-franc-de-pegging

Asia

• Euan Graham on what-vietnam-s-fishing-flotilla-doing-scarborough-shoal
• David  Kang on south-korea-s-dangerous-drift
• Vivienne Chow on lam-s-election-jolt-back-reality-hong-kong
• Morris Jones on significant-demonstration-missile-know-how
• Bob Bowker on assad-and-chemical-weapons-regional-repercussions
• Brad Setser on chinas-confusing-trade-and-current-account-numbers
• Frances Kitt on how-would-president-moon-jae-approach-north-korea-and-china
• Menzie Chinn on is-chinas-currency-undervalued-a-reality-check
• Alexander Buev on china-and-russia-friends-strategic-benefits
• Rod Barton on syrias-chemical-weapons-khan-sheikhoun-attack-may-not-be-last

Wonk

• Brad De Long on why-were-economists-as-a-group-as-useless-over-2010-2014-as-over-1929-1935
• Barkely Rosser on fascism-and-you-know-who-ykw
• Timo Henkel on what-economics-has-to-say-about-housing-bubbles
• Cecchetti and Schoeholtz on the-case-for-a-higher-inflation-target-gets-stronger Thanks Mark
• Macromom on trust me I am an economist Thanks Mark
• Nick Rowe on high-wages-encourage-innovation?
• Noah Smith on when-economics-failed , are-rationals-dense
• Peter Dorman on mixed-methods-forecasting
• Charles Goodhardt on why-regulators-should-focus-on-bankers-incentives Thanks Mark
• Lord Keynes on keynes-early-views-on-population-and-immigration
• Timothy Taylor on leniency-in-speeding-tickets
• stumbling and mumbling on wages-and-productivity , the-paradoxes-of-plebiscites, a-right-wing-case-for-taxing-private-schools , immigration-mechanisms
• Simon Wren-Lewis on economists-as-medics
• Jago Dodson on making-sense-of-the-global-infrastructure-turn
• Douglas Campbell on the-real-exchange-rate-and-trade-literature Thanks Mark
• Noah Smith on when-rationalists-remade-world
• Jonathan Portes on spreadsheets-are-people-too-statistics-and-reality Thanks Brad
• promarket on suspect-major-reason-rise-concentration-technological-change-particularly-in-IT Thanks Mark

General

• Understanding Society on science-policy-and-cold-war Thanks Mark 
• Mark Blaskovich on the-periodic-table-from-its-classic-design-to-use-in-popular-culture
• coppolla comment on a-dangerous-eden
• Nick Gruen on the-living-and-the-dead-the-arteries-and-the-capillaries-part-one

Climate

• Robert Stavins on delighted-and-depressed
• moyhu on ncepncar-global-surface-temperature-down-o.1c-in-march , global-60-stations-and-coverage, march-global-surface-temperature-down-0.066C
• and Then Theres Physics on its-okay-to-lie? , why-a-reasonably-stable-climate
• John Abraham on scientists-understood-climate-150-yr-ago-better-than-pruitt-does-today
• Arctic sea ice on piomas-april-2017
• hotwhopper on coral-reef-bleaching-with-world-expert-terry-hughes

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• move-nothing-see
• gilovich-doubles-hot-hand-denial
• some-videos-and-podcasts
• no-evidence-providing-drivers-licenses-unauthorized-immigrants-california-decreases-traffic-safety
• life-imitates-art
• study-showing-humans-psychic-powers-caps-daryl-bems-career
• annals-of-spam-6
• not-hard-move-away-hypothesis-testing-toward-bayesian-approach-embracing-variation-accepting-uncertainty-actually-approach-easier-approach
• dear-cornell-university-public-relations-office
• ppppppppppnas
• cross-purposes
• Stephen Woodcock on paradoxes-of-probability-and-other-statistical-strangeness
• Understanding society on observation-measurement-and-explanation
• Kaiser Fung on the-get-rich-quick-scheme-of-the-english , what-is-mr-pruitt-saying

Genial Dave Giles (econometerics)

• read-some-econometrics-this-month
• read-some-econometrics-this-month
• ardl-models-from-team-at-eviews
• Marc Bellamare on one IV for two endogenous variable , and testing for mechanisms Thanks Mark
• Bill Aulet on wisdom-from-data-behavioral-economics Thanks Mark
• No Hesitations on the-latest-on-file-drawer-problem

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• welfare-economics-and-octopus-intelligence
• Doverbeach on daily-reading-4 , daily-reading-5 , daily-reading-6, daily-reading-7 , weekend-reading

Vox wonk

• pread-modern-manufacturing-poor-periphery
• smoke-pollution-and-health-19th-century
• conduct-monetary-policy-diverse-monetary-union
• role-of-in-rainfall-africas-ethnic-conflicts
• global-corporate-saving-glut
• routes-latin-america-and-caribbean-grow
• drivers-employment-generation-and-social-inclusion-eu
• international-elasticity-puzzle-worse-you-think
• what-has-bank-capital-ever-done-us
• central-bank-exit-strategies-next-steps-and-new-horizons
• ideas-of-kenneth-arrow