Robin Williams was a coward

Robin Williams committed suicide yesterday.
He had a wife and three children. He had close friends.
When he committed suicide he thought nothing of them only himself.

Until they die all their days will be filled with grief as they remember William's suicide. some might even have guilty feelings that they did not do enough to stop him.
They will all miss him some very badly.

If only he thought of this before his very selfish act!

The Government's blues again

We have examined the reasons behind why the government had no honeymoon in the polls and why it polling do bad previously.

Rather than going over the same old issues I though I might try another way of examining the topic.

When you are in Opposition you shouldn't just criticise the government and their policies and think through what you might do when you are in Government.

The Present government quite obviously did not do this at all.
They put all their  eggs in the deficit and debt crisis and the cupboard was bare arguments. They believed after the public swallowed this then they would not need to do many of the things they said they would do given that economic circumstances had 'changed!

They got it badly wrong on number of counts.
Firstly the Charter of Budget honesty introduced by Peter Costello makes the cupboard is bare nonsensical. Treasury and Finance put out PEFO during the election campaign. Thus we can see if the cupboard is bare or not. It was NOT!

Secondly after saying they would not break promises like the previous government they then did.
They then brought down a budget which was manifestly unfair.
Neither the PM nor the Treasurer had a great understanding of the detail of the budget.
Moreover the present government is as bad at politics as the Government they replaced.

Add all this to what we have written about before then if world growth does not pick up between now and the next election then the Present Government could well become a one term Government.

Around the Traps 8/8/14

It is time again for Around the Traps.
It should be updated on Sunday.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ross Gittins on why-no-one-is-backing-budget , modellers-bamboozle-over-cost-of-renewable-energy
• Greg Jericho on andrew-forrest-is-wrong-welfare-spending-is-not-out-of-control , australians-financial-worries-rocket-coalition-failing-sell-budget
• Kern Wolf on The-government-doesnt-understand
• The Kouk on rba-knows-when-to-hold-em-knows-when-to-fold-em , is-australia-due-for-a-recession , it-s-dog-of-a-labour-force-release
• Andrew Elder on up-for-negotiation , reset
• Peter Whiteford on the-budget-fairness-and-class-warfare Thanks Steve from Brisbane
• Don Arthur on libertarians-and-the-privatisation-of-income-management
• Mumble on sell_shmell , whos_got_it_and_who_hasnt , andrew_confused
• John Quiggin on job-search-40-times-a-month , team-australia
• Antony Green on ricky-muirs-strange-path-to-the-senate

Northern America

• Calculated Risk on public-and-private-sector-payroll-jobs-under-various-Presidents
• Menzie Chinn on the-ever-expanding-government-revisited , kansas-downgraded
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-dont-look-to-congress-for-a-solution-to-the-nations-long-term-transportation-woes
• Mark Thoma on how-austerity-wrecked-the-recovery
• Brad De Long on big-thinking-obamacare
• Calculated Risk on weekly-initial-unemployment-claims-lowest-since-Oct 2006
• Henry on reagan-and-plagiarism
• Dave Altig on getting-there

Europe

• Simon Wren-Lewis on article-1231-and-ecb , the-pre-recession-uk-debt-fuelled-boom-that-never-was
• Francesco Saranseno on praising-the-bundesbank Thanks Mark
• Chris Dillow on two-politics

Asia

• Mark Thoma gives us adam-posen-on-japans-recovery-going-right-just-not-going-well
• Noah Smith on let-me-explain-japan-for-westerners

Wonk

• David Glasner on how-to-think-about-own-rates-of-interest-version-2-0
• Jim Rose on recall-and-waiting-unemployment
• Edward Lambert on echoes-of-effective-demand
• Josh Bivens on another-reminder-of-the-stupidity-of-austerity Thanks Mark
• Simon Wren-Lewis on bonus-culture
• Nick Rowe on the-quantity-theory-and-neutrality-of-money-when-money-is-endogenous
• Barkely Rosser on the-natural-rate-does-not-equal-nairu
• Daniel Little on what-is-methodology Thanks Mark
• Anna Rosso on benefits-attracting-high-skilled-migrants
• Brad De Long on making-sense-of-friedrich-a-von-hayek-live-from-la-farine , weekend-reading-robert-solow-hayek-friedman-and-the-illusions-of-conservative-economics
• Antonio Fatas on a-recession-without-boom Thanks Mark
• Noah Smith on can-fed-set-interest-rates , basic-income-is-good-because-its-basic
• Sandwichman on making-sense-of-brad-delongs-making-Says -law-true-in-preactice

General

• Progrowth Liberal on should-economists-be-honest-or-civil
• Chris Dillow on what-use-are-academics , economists-and-the-public , decorporatization , peer-effects-in-companies
• Simon Wren-Lewis on anti-intellectualism , nerds-elitism-and-immigration
• Noah Smith on nerds-vs-empire , are-libertarians-ready-to-embrace-a-broader-notion-of-freedom
• Tim Harford on when-crime-stops-paying
• Lord Keynes on the-sobering-truth-about-business-failure-rates
• Ahron Bregman on my-time-in-israeli-defence-force-tells-me-the-level-of-casualties-in-gaza-is-avoidable
• Peter Brent on if-an-election-had-been-held-on-the-weekend
• Gerry Jackson on consumer-spending-investment-and-the-trade-cycle
• Jim Rose on squeamishness-kills-alert-were-the-atomic-bombings-unnecessary-would-have-japan-surrendered-anyway

Climate

• Joe Romm on into-the-storm-tornado-climate-change
• Rick Piltz on new-research-on-ocean-acidification-threat-and-recalling-some-political-history
• Climate Science watch on a-note-on-global-warming-ocean-acidification-and-the-future-of-medicine
• Rabette run on color-blind , chait-gets-it
• Steve from Brisbane on discouraging-pollution-news

Andrew Gelman ( Mainly Stats)

• correlation-even-imply-correlation
• scientific-replication-criticism-collaboration-original-authors-fine-dont-think-requirement-even-expectation
• scientific-communication-by-press-release
• president-american-association-buggy-whip-manufacturers-takes-strong-stand-internal-combustion-engine-argues-called-automobile-little-grounding-theory
• nate-silver
• estimated-effect-early-childhood-intervention-downgraded-42-25
• Brad De Long on tuesday-virtual-office-hours-follow-up-questions-on-the-philosophy-of-probability
• Robert Waldeman on uncertainty-for-a-recovering-bayesian-fortune-teller
• Kaiser Fung on bad-sql-habits a-report-from-jsm-joint-statistical-meetings-2014

Dave Giles (Econometrics)

• estimation-accuracy-after-model-selection
• the-7-pillars-of-statistical-wisdom
• my-talk-at-jsm

Dianne Coyle (Quirky + Book Reviews)

• order-and-disorder , economics-general-equilibrium-and-the-cold-war , finding-equilibrium ,distinguished-company
• Nicholas Gruen on the-dunera-kicking-off-an-exciting-life
• Niccoletta Gullace on british-women-would-have-waited-far-longer-for-the-vote-without-world-war1
• Tim Harford on pity-the-robot-drivers-snarled-in-a-human-moral-maze
• Steve from Brisbane on sun-and-health
• Ken Haley on whom-the-gods-wish-to-destroy

Vox wonk

• why-developing-host-countries-sign-increasingly-strict-investment-agreements
• risk-attitudes-are-context-specific
• international-organisation-and-world-war-i
• updated-deposit-insurance-database
• us-led-vs-china-led-economic-architecture
• evolving-effectiveness-uk-s-monetary-policy
• will-us-inflate-away-its-public-debt
• inheritance-flows-sweden-1810-2010
• how-immigration-benefits-natives
• monetary-policy-transmission-balance-sheets-evidence-japan
• us-manufacturing-base-surprisingly-strong
• 
  

Israel and Palestine

Here are a few things about the current situation in no order of importance.

• Hamas pose little threat to Israel. Their rockets ar primitive-and-inaccurate. Israel is more than capable of coping with them.
• This is one of the very few places on the planet where terrorists kill a lot less people then a country's army.
• Hamas political wing has little influence whereas their military wing has almost total influence. This can be directly related to Israel's policy of denying Hamas any role in Government.
• History shows Terrorists are quite capable of changing and becoming politicians. We have seen this in Northern Ireland but also Israel itself. If you asked anybody in Israel in 1948 or even outside it that Begin or Shamir would become Prime Minister of Israel they would have laughed in your face. 
• The Terrorists of 1948 namely the Stern gang ,Irigun etc put Hamas in the shade in terms of murdering people. They caused whole villages to be devoid of people because they were afraid of being massacred. 
• Israel's strategy is flawed.
• They could use another Strategy.
• Both this 'war' and the one with Hizbullah has exposed the military skills of the IDF. In a number of incidents the IDF have been shown up. They no longer have that 'stamp of invincibility' about them.

The Racial discrimination laws

I have three basic points about the government backing down on their proposed laws.

1) If Andrew Bolt had a work ethic and found some evidence he would not have been found guilty. As it is his lawyers agreed his 'research' amounted to nought.
2) The Plaintiffs deliberately did not use the libel laws although they would have won handsomely and got quite a bit of cash as well. In other words it is was the principle they were after. It is ironic Bolt has none!
3) The Loudest supporters of free speech do not practice it e.g. Catallaxy

The Great War

Given it is the 100th anniversary of the start of the Great War a lot of people will write on this subject.

What I have always found interesting is that the leaders of the allied forces learnt nothing from the US Civil war, the Boer war or the Franco-German war. They instead looked to 'wars' that had occurred in their colonies.
A lot of Generals both had a history with the Calvary and still had an affinity for it.
Remarkably It was our own John Monash who came up with original tactics to use. He was never really liked after all He was an engineer not a professional soldier , He was Australian and worst of all he was a Jew ( with a mistress in London!).
At the end of the war The treaty of Versailles ensured a bitter German population given no battles were ever had on Germany.
One interesting development was how the war  ensured the major social issues of the day in all nations was papered over.
Here is a nice piece by John Quiggin.

Best book to read on this topic is undoubtedly Dreadnought

Grateful Dead

What a band. Here they are with Bruce Hornsby doing his song Valley Road after a jam!

Enjoy