Around the Traps 27/6/25

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Gareth Evans on aukus-collapse-good-for-australia Thanks Nick
• Isaac Gross on would-a-corporate-tax-cut-boost-productivity-in-australia-so-far-the-evidence-is-unclear
• Donald Rothwell on australia-must-stand-firm-in-its-support-for-a-rules-based-order-and-reject-any-us-requests-for-military-aid ,
• Allan Behm on as-the-us-chooses-destruction-over-diplomacy-in-iran-australia-has-to-decide-between-principle-and-prostration
• Michael Shoebridge on albanese-government-cuts-heart-us-alliance
• Dennis Muller on antoinette-lattoufs-unfair-dismissal-win-shows-abc-must-be-more-courageous-in-defending-its-journalists
• David Vallance on transparency-australia-us-alliance
• Greg Jericho on super-tax-debate-highlights-everything-wrong-with-australias-media-and-economic-system
• Andrew Carr on beyond-white-papers-how-australia-should-rethink-strategic-planning
• Connor O'Brien on australia-should-stop-pretending-be-military-hegemon

OZ Climate

• we-were-told-to-stand-down-why-it-took-nine-days-to-connect-broken-hills-back-up-battery-in-blackout
  
• bribe-or-community-benefit-sweeteners-for-renewables-projects-need-to-be-done-right
  
• aint-seen-nothing-yet-new-ways-to-make-money-from-big-batteries-are-on-the-way
• aemo-wants-six-hour-batteries-and-more-wind-and-solar-as-biggest-isolated-grid-prepares-to-quit-coal
• nsw-doubles-its-spend-on-transmission-to-connect-more-renewables-faster
  
• network-offers-big-near-neighbour-payments-to-soothe-anger-over-renewables-transmission-line
  
• regulator-puts-faith-in-spinning-machines-to-keep-the-lights-on-as-it-says-no-to-inertia-market-for-now
  
• even-big-batteries-are-falling-victim-to-grid-bottlenecks
  
• threat-of-new-global-energy-crisis-makes-it-more-urgent-than-ever-to-electrify-everything
  
• Wei Yang on wetland-restoration-is-seen-as-sunk-cost-but-new-research-shows-why-it-should-be-considered-an-investment
• Trivess Moore and Nicola Willand on yes-victorias-efforts-to-wean-households-off-gas-have-been-dialled-back-but-its-still-real-progress

Northern America

• Brad De Long on who-were-the-we-the-people-back-in-1787
• Lisa Rubin on hegseth-senate-testimony-court-orders-trump
• Ron Capshaw on heterodox-radical-going-around-murray-kempton-review Thanks Nick
• Joshua Keating on iran-attack-trump-war
• Fred Kaplan on trump-bombs-iran-us-war-nuclear-sites , iran-israel-war-trump-ceasefire-latest , trump-iran-hegseth-nuclear-program-uranium-assessment
• noahopinion on the-economic-consequences-of-a-war-with-iran , zohran-mamdanis-policies-will-mostly-not-bring-abundance-to-NYC
• small precautions on how-did-academia-not-see-it-coming Thanks Brad
• Kruggers on maga-will-devastate-rural-america , why-big-tech-turned-against-democrats-and-democracy , mamdani-and-the-moguls-of-madness
• Alex Tabarrok on have-appliances-declined-in-durability
• Umair Irfan on heat-wave-urban-island-rural-health-temperature
• Christian Paz on trump-paradox-poll-iran-economy-approval-number
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-bivens-ice-law-enforcement-donald-trump , supreme-court-medicaid-abortion-medina-planned-parenthood-south-carolina
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on worst-supreme-court-decision-trump-second-term
• the conversable economist on a-feds-eye-view-of-labor-markets , the-us-trade-balance-with-the-eu-the-role-of-us-multinationals
• Max Rivlin-Nadler on the-zohran-mamdani-coalition
• Eric Lach on zohran-mamdanis-new-york-city-miracle
• Ruth Marcus on justice-ketanji-brown-jacksons-declaration-of-independence
• Jeet Heer on trump-iran-no-more-wars , zohran-mamdani-democratic-party-establishment
• Ray Brescia on emile-bove-senate-hearing-trump
• Mark Stern on supreme-court-trump-victory-birthright-citizenship-disaster

Europe

• Yvonne Breitweiser-Faria on a-new-special-tribunal-will-investigate-russias-aggression-against-ukraine-will-it-be-effective
• Pjot Sauer on one-million-and-counting-russian-casualties-hit-milestone-in-ukraine-war
• stumbling and mumbling on what-do-politicians-do
• renew economy on no-time-to-waste-huge-big-battery-plans-unveiled-for-spain-as-accusations-traded-over-blackout

Asia

• Jenna Jordan and Rachel Whitlark on nuclear-scientists-have-long-been-targets-in-covert-ops-israel-has-brought-that-policy-out-of-the-shadows
• Susanna Patton on border-skirmish-leaked-phone-call-sees-thailand-cambodia-dispute-surge-back-life
• noahopinion on chinas-industrial-policy-has-an-unprofitability-problem
• Ian Parmeter on the-us-has-entered-the-israel-iran-war-here-are-3-scenarios-for-what-might-happen-next
• James Dwyer on what-is-a-bunker-buster-an-expert-explains-what-the-us-dropped-on-iran
• Trivan Annakkarrage on kashmir-identity-crisis-heart-three-way-territorial-contest
• Fred Kaplan on iran-war-us-trump-nuclear-program-uranium-israel
• Ali Mamouri on will-the-fragile-ceasefire-between-iran-and-israel-hold-one-factor-could-be-crucial-to-it-sticking
• Anthony Burke on the-war-wont-end-irans-nuclear-program-it-will-drive-it-underground-following-north-koreas-model
• Benjamin Isakhan on hauntingly-familiar-why-comparing-the-us-strikes-on-iran-to-iraq-in-2003-is-off-target
• Mira Hussein on gulf-states-want-no-winner-in-the-conflict-between-israel-and-iran
• Henry Yep on china-s-south-pacific-foothold-how-prevent-it
• renew economy on just-staggering-china-installs-100-solar-panels-a-second-as-total-pv-capacity-tops-1-terawatt
• Amro Hamada on gaza-the-war-on-dialysis
• Craig Mark on japanese-prime-ministers-abrupt-no-show-at-nato-summit-reveals-a-strained-alliance-with-the-us
• Henry Storey on china-sits-out-iran-conflagration

Wonk

• Brad De Long on lash-cash-and-cotton-in the imperial-commercial-and-the-early-steampower-age
• Sohrab Ahmari on the-regime-change-maniacs-are-back-in-charge Thanks Nick
• the garden of forking paths on the-value-of-proportionate-fines Thanks Nick
• Willem Buiter on streamlining-us-financial-regulation Thanks Nick
• Llewelyn Spink and Nicholas Davis on companies-are-betting-on-ai-to-help-lift-productivity-workers-need-to-be-part-of-the-process
• Tim Harford on am-i-boring-you-good
• stumbling and mumbling on politics-vs-econ101
• Kruggers on inequality-part-iv-oligarchs
• sandwichman on fetters-on-development-of-productive-forces , the-realm-of-freedom-and-dictatorship-of-the-proletariat
• Donald Rothwell on why-the-us-strikes-on-iran-are-illegal-and-can-set-a-troubling-precedent
• Chris Armstrong on peaceful-terrorism
• Tyler Cowen on how-do-declining-fertility-and-climate-change-interact
• Menzie Chinn on the-int-monetary-system-the-pboc-and-the-rmb-fragmentation

General

• Davide Foffa et al on how-pterosaurs-learned-to-fly-scientists-have-been-looking-in-the-wrong-place-to-solve-this-mystery

Climate

• skeptical science on is modern warming a rebound , ClimateAdam-silencing-science-trump-war-on-our-climate , new_research
• open mind on another-estimate-of-the-warming-rate
• Milton Speer and Lance Leslie on freak-wind-gusts-made-worse-by-climate-change-threaten-airline-passenger-safety
• David Appell on arctic-sea-ice-currently-at-record-low

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• deciphering-the-neighborhood-atlas-area-deprivation-index-the-consequences-of-not-standardizing
  
• update-on-effects-of-economy-on-political-attitudes-and-behavior
  
• the-2024-baby-name-statistics-are-available-and-laura-wattenberg-and-philip-cohen-have-some-thoughts
  
• reckless-disregard-for-the-truth-coming-from-cops-doctors-and-scientists-a-rant
  
• survey-statistics-poststratification
  
• belief-elicitation-in-theory-versus-practice
  
• bring-on-the-stupid-when-does-it-make-sense-to-judge-a-person-a-group-or-an-organization-by-its-worst
  
• statschat on reeling-them-in , census-roundup , briefly
• freakometrics on collectively rethinking disasters , insuring the uninsurable

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• uncertain-times-lebanon-how-policy-shocks-ripple-through-mena-markets
  
• when-supply-shocks-essential-inputs-spur-innovation-lessons-global-rare-earths 
• how-201819-us-tariffs-against-china-boosted-exports-and-employment-mexico
  
• part-time-work-slows-narrowing-frances-lifetime-gender-earnings-gap
  
• pricing-risks-bull-and-bear-markets
  
• us-wealth-inequality-2022-modest-reversal-top-persistent-challenges-below
  
• downgrading-uncle-sam-not-america
  
• geopolitical-risk-euro-area
  
• borrowing-hand-over-fist-aa
  
• why-us-and-wto-should-part-ways
  
• export-strength-does-not-equal-tech-strength-rethinking-eu-comparative-advantage
  
• lending-uncle-sam-rope
  
• decline-non-tariff-barriers-services-trade-and-euro-area-competitiveness
  

domestic stuff

 CPI

the monthly CPI came out yesterday and it was very good. It does appear that the previous CPI was an aberration as this one shows the disinflation trend which was apparent up to last month. Both the headline and trimmed mean annual figures fell substantially. The CBA now expects rate cuts in both July and then August and I do not disagree. I would move rates down to the neutral rate and then wait.

ABC

The ABC lost a court case yesterday where both the previous Managing director and Charwoman came out looking very badly. Sacking someone simply because the Israel lobby wanted it is very bad for a media organisation ( it would be equally bad if it were the Palestinian lobby). When it is Australia's premier media organisation it is a national disgrace. We can only hope they have learnt their lesson.

Regime Change in Iran

 There WERE two easy ways to get regime change in Iran.

The previous agreement with Iran that occurred under Obama would have allowed more and more restrictions on the Iranian economy to be lifted because they were no longer undertaking a nuclear program. This is why the IEA could inspect their facilities. Iranians loved this and reformist won in a landslide hoping to undertake economic reforms. People clearly wanted butter and not guns 9 to terrorists) . Indeed there is little evidence most Iranians want Israel 'extinguished' as a country. If the agreement was allowed to go ahead there would have been regime change over the long term.

Alas Trump BROKE the agreement. He does love breaking agreements and contracts.

The other way would be to threaten IRan with umpteeen nuclear bombs if they ever launched a nuclear weapon against Israel. Given there are few if any people in Iran wanting to die in the hope of destroying Israel the mad mullahs would have to back down if they ever made such a threat. they have not as yet.

Now I am not a genius so I cannot see any successful way of gaining regime change in Iran that benefits both Iran and the world!

Convincing Iran to become the economic superpower of the region should not be hard. It would mean for example Iran would be by far the most influential country in the region.

The rest is history

 In these bleak times I somehow on youtube got onto a series called the rest is history. 

If you love history it is fantastic. Two poms who love history have great chemistry discuss many topics of history. I have heard/ seen their series on the rise of the nazis and WW1. I am going to watch others.

I heartily recommend it

the attack on Iran

 If one believes in a rules based order then quite clearly the attack on Iran was illegal just like Russia's invasion of Ukraine! It is might is right rather than international law.

Can you believe both Israel and the USA attacked Iran and then said do not retaliate. NO evidence was provided for their assertions which was contrary to IEA's statements. By the way when was the last time the IEA examined Israel's nuclear industry? It never has!

Why is Iran an existential threat to Israel if they were able to weaponise ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads like North Korea has.  Here is a thought on regime change in Iran. The USA and Israel should threaten Iran that should  they  launch a nuclear missile at Israel then maybe a 100 will be headed to Iran. It is a win-win. If they threaten then people would revolt as they do not want to die.  Any nuclear weapon would only be used for defensive reasons.

I cannot help but wonder what would have happened if Obama's original agreement was allowed to go forward instead of being BROKEN by trump. Iran voted for reformists in a landslide as they wanted butter not guns. Iran then went to hardliners and back to guns not butter.

In the end it is entirely hypocritical for either Israel or the USA to say Iran cannot have nuclear weapons.

Whoa I just heard someone saying if Iran attacked the USA then the NATO  provisions could be invoked. What. the USA attacked Iran. If you attack another nation you cannot invoke the NATO provisions.

If anyone thinks the people in Iran will rise up and get regime change when Israel or the USA say it should be so then they are dreaming!

Around the Traps 20/6/25

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Saul Eslake on the-widening-wealth-gap-and-what-do-about-it Thanks Nick
• croaking cassandra on willis-and-quigley , 41-questions
• Jonathan Barrett and Patrick Commins on aukus-will-cost-australia-368bn-what-if-there-was-a-better-cheaper-defence-strategy
• Rushali Saha on putting-indo-indo-pacific-australia-s-westward-pivot
• Ben Saul on australias-claim-that-israel-has-a-right-to-defend-itself-against-iran-is-inconsistent-with-our-rules-based-order
• Peter Breadon and Elizabeth Baldwin on poorer-and-rural-australians-are-sicker-yet-they-get-less-healthcare-its-a-broken-system
• Hugh White on hugh-white-why-the-aukus-dream-was-never-realistic-and-is-likely-to-die
• David Vallance on australia-s-military-benefits-beyond-war-career-challenge
• Lydia Khalil on explaining-australia-s-enduring-faith-democracy-even-world-backslides
• Isaac Gross on would-a-corporate-tax-cut-boost-productivity-in-australia-so-far-the-evidence-is-unclear
• Greg Jericho on what-could-albanese-do-to-improve-productivity-here-is-a-short-non-exhaustive-list
• John Lee on albanese-must-learn-smiles-handshakes-trump-won-t-save-australia-s-aukus-ambitions
• Hugh White on the-australia-us-alliance-is-facing-a-decisive-test-and-not-just-over-the-middle-east
• Jenny Gordon on australians-see-through-tariff-fears-real-economic-threat
• Leigh Howard on no-trump-photo-op-pm-reminder-where-australia-s-future-lies

OZ Climate

• amid-calls-for-more-gas-the-energy-market-rule-maker-is-quietly-preparing-for-a-death-spiral
  
• the-hidden-climate-and-energy-costs-of-woodsides-lng-extension
  
• a-government-owned-retailer-has-just-jacked-up-our-electricity-tariffs-by-25-pct-because-it-can
  
• csiro-demonstrates-new-beam-down-solar-reactor-to-accelerate-green-hydrogen-production
  
• energy-giant-abandons-plans-to-build-new-transmission-links-to-renewable-energy-zones
  
• solar-waste-is-a-major-problem-for-australia-but-recycling-should-be-the-last-resort
  
• its-not-working-bowen-says-dmo-fails-to-stop-energy-retailers-gouging-customers
  
• ive-seen-the-energy-future-and-its-in-china-and-australia-must-ditch-its-distrust-and-collaborate
  
• australian-and-french-energy-giants-team-up-for-pumped-hydro-plant-to-replace-coal
  
• rooftop-solar-is-a-burning-platform-warns-network-boss-dont-wait-for-the-fire
  
•  our-largest-load-is-now-our-largest-generator-the-path-to-worlds-first-100-pct-variable-renewable-grid
• the-secret-to-speeding-up-grid-connection-approvals-make-them-public-and-very-visible
• wa-splurges-on-electric-transport-batteries-and-transmission-to-unlock-wind-usher-out-coal
  
• Mike Foley on old-king-coal-is-spluttering-as-power-plants-age-out-of-usefulness
• Deepika Mathur and Robin Gregory on a-solar-panel-recycling-scheme-would-help-reduce-waste-but-please-repair-and-reuse-first

Northern America

• Adam Isacson on a-bad-day-for-the-u-s-military Thanks Nick
• Drezners world on real-trumpism-has-not-yet-been-tried Thanks Nick
• Menzie Chinn on some-basic-math-on-why-i-think-recession-likelihood-is-greater-than-30
• noahopinion on social-media-destroyed-one-of-americas-key-advantages , feeling-cautiously-optimistic-about-american-democracy
• sandwichman on renegade-without-cause
• new deal democrat on the-state-of-freight
• Zack Beauchamp on trumps-military-parade-is-a-warning
• skeptical science on fact-brief-was-1934-the-hottest-year-on-record
• Alex Tabarrok on the-return-of-the-american-model
• Jeremy Pressman on millions-rally-against-authoritarianism-while-the-white-house-portrays-protests-as-threats-a-political-scientist-explains
• Andrew Prokop on trump-iran-israel-war-america-first-tucker-carlson-china
• Fred Kaplan on iran-israel-war-donald-trump-plan , iran-trump-us-war-israel
• the conversable economist on us-bond-markets-the-intimidators
• unpopular front on whats-left-to-say Thanks Brad
• Kruggers on lies-damned-lies-and-deportations , bad-times-for-college-graduates , why-the-fed-is-on-hold
• Luke Hartigan on how-high-can-us-debt-go-before-it-triggers-a-financial-crisis
• Lannni Hamblin and Melissa Conley-Tyler on trump-s-state-department-purge-cuts-deeper-his-first-presidency
• Jeet Heer on trump-politicization-military-warlord , trump-us-iran-war-israel
• Manish Vaid on how-america-first-could-undermine-quad-s-critical-minerals-plans
• Umair Irfan on crop-food-rice-wheat-climate-change-midwest
• Mark Stern on skrmetti-john-roberts-anti-trans-supreme-court
• Jonathan Blitzer on the-trump-crackdown-on-elected-officials
• Brad De Long on tariffs-chaos-and-the-g6, on discounting-the-future-financial-markets-money-and-the--mirage-of-normal
• Shirin Ali on donald-trump-brad-lander-ice-raid-los-angeles
• Joel Eissenberg on the-big-beautiful-bill-will-kill-american-hospitals

Europe

• Oleksandra Osypenko on many-russian-speakers-in-ukraine-have-switched-language-but-changing-perceptions-may-be-much-harder
• Ian Hill on israel-iran-conflict-moscow-positions-itself-advantage

Asia

• Natassha Lindstaedt on why-israels-air-strikes-signal-a-shifting-relationship-with-the-us-and-a-weakening-iran
• Ramita Iyer on china-s-cartographic-claims-test-fragile-india-rapprochement
• Ali Mamouri on as-war-breaks-out-with-israel-iran-has-run-out-of-good-options
• Ian Parmeter on netanyahu-has-two-war-aims-destroying-irans-nuclear-program-and-regime-change-are-either-achievable
• Matt Fitzpatrick on iran-war-from-the-middle-east-to-america-history-shows-you-cannot-assassinate-your-way-to-peace
• James Dwyer on how-does-israels-famous-air-defence-work-its-not-just-the-iron-dome
• Andrew Thomas on regime-change-wouldnt-likely-bring-democracy-to-iran-a-more-threatening-force-could-fill-the-vacuum
• Benjamin Zala on why-is-there-so-much-concern-over-irans-nuclear-program-and-where-could-it-go-from-here
• Joshua Keating on israel-iran-nuclear-bomb-regime-change
• Robin Wright on what-is-israels-endgame-with-iran
• Shannon Bosch on are-israels-actions-in-iran-illegal-could-it-be-called-self-defence-an-international-law-expert-explains
• Arash Azizi on iran-opposition-israel-war
• Dan Sabbagh on israels-attack-has-exposed-irans-lack-of-firepower-but-conflict-could-yet-turn-in-tehrans-favour
• Ali Mamouri on who-are-irans-allies-and-would-any-help-if-the-us-joins-israel-in-its-war
• Jeffrey Fields on us-and-iran-have-a-long-complicated-history-spanning-far-beyond-israels-strikes-on-tehran
• Hessom Razavi on my-heart-is-full-of-sparks-as-war-escalates-can-i-hope-for-irans-liberation-from-a-tyrannical-regime
• Chietigj Bajpaee on india-pakistan-are-global-charm-offensive-it-worth-listening 
• David Brewster on destabilisation-refugee-camps-bangladesh-could-lead-new-exodus-rohingyas

Wonk

• Venkatesh Rao on the-right-side-of-history Thanks Nick
• Mary Harrington on guest-post-love-in-the-age-of-tiktok Thanks Nick
• Sheridan Ward on tigray-can-t-afford-another-war-world-can-t-afford-do-nothing
• Tim Harford on what-does-it-take-to-stand-up-to-tyranny
• Tyler Cowen on the-new-monetary-economics-is-underway-legislation-allowing , the-value-of-good-management-and-also-talent-allocation , updating-our-views-of-nuclear-deterrence-a-short-essay-by-o3-pro
• Kruggers on global-inequality-branko-milanovic , understanding-inequality-part-iii
• stumbling and mumbling on the-political-engagement-dilemma
• Brad De Long on rakes-rage-and-the-rationality-racket
• Kaitlin Cook on what-is-uranium-enrichment-and-how-is-it-used-for-nuclear-bombs-a-scientist-explains
• Peter Edwell on no-kings-like-the-la-protesters-the-early-romans-hated-kings-too
• Roderick Parkes on brave-new-interior-world-rise-self-enhancing-states
• Ben Chu on isoationism-isnt-new-and-is-fuelled-by-deep-human-desires
• Cynthia Mehboob on ai-s-war-consent-women-face-coded-misogyny
• Fiona Mcgaughey on why-dei-won-t-die-80-years-protecting-rights-fighting-equality
• Sophie Yi on us-china-rather-mutual-understanding-strive-competition-without-conflict
• noahopinion on western-democracies-are-actually-pretty-good-at-war

General

• Guida Junior on what-do-we-know-about-the-air-india-crash-how-did-one-man-survive-what-now-an-aviation-safety-expert-explains
• Mogammad Taliep on south-africas-cricket-team-just-made-history-how-the-chokers-became-world-champions
• Nathan Waddell on nineteen-eighty-four-might-have-been-inspired-by-george-orwells-fear-of-drowning

Climate

• skeptical science on new_research , new_research
• David Appell on new-record-for-ocean-heat-content

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• all-the-little-decisions-we-have-to-make-when-developing-public-facing-software
  
• dan-luu-and-i-consider-possible-reasons-for-collapse-of-bridge
  
• approximate-posterior-recalibration
  
• survey-statistics-3-flavors-of-survey-weights
  
• junk-science-used-to-promote-arguments-against-free-will
  
• hot-social-science-topics-20-years-ago-and-hot-social-science-topics-now-2
  
• the-groovy-grandma-problem-in-survey-research
  
• nih-plan-to-remove-ideological-influence-from-science-how-does-this-fit-in-the-junk-science-being-promoted-by-the-u-s-dept-of-health-and-human-services
  
• freakometrics on beyond shapely values
• Kaiser Fung on nonlinear-thinking-in-marketing
• statschat on tatau-tatou-eh , compared-to-what

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Geoff Shellenberger on walter-lippmann-beyond-stereotypes Thanks Nick
• Hannah Forsyth on review-of-patriarchy-inc-by-cordelia-fine
• noahopinion on progressives-take-their-best-shot-at-abundance

Vox Wonk

• one-language-one-nation-language-policy-and-economic-integration
  
•  state-aid-times-crisis-lessons-covid-19-support-firms-italy-and-spain
• trump-tariff-policy-uncertainty-and-role-economics
  
• hiroshima-resilience-city-structure-after-atomic-bombing
  
• banks-nonbanks-macroprudential-and-monetary-policy-effects-corporate-lending
  
• default-mum-how-institutions-quietly-shape-gender-roles-parenting
  
• generative-ai-universities-grades-signals-down-skills-flux
  
• quantifying-global-debt-risks-amid-high-and-rising-public-debt
  
• economic-consequences-second-trump-administration-preliminary-assessment
  
• rise-and-retreat-us-inflation-update
  
• beyond-words-fed-chair-voice-sentiments-and-us-bank-stock-price-crash-risk
  

Israel and Iran part 2

 Clearly the Israeli strike against Iran was illegal.

I am also interested that US  intelligence thought Iran was a long way from having nukes  let alone putting them on ballistic missiles.Just remember Netanyahu has claimed for umpteeen years Iran was just about to have nuclear armed missiles. ( Israel is allowed to have them but not Iran apparently.

However I want to look at the record of Iran doing anything to destroy Israel.

Iran clearly armed both Hamas and Hezbollah. Was either able to bring down helicopter gunships like what happened in Afghanistan. NO. Well how about giving either missiles where the weapon can be directed at a specific target. Well again the answer is no. They were given rockets which could go anywhere indeed there were many times Hamas killed their own countrymen because of this.

If you are alleging Iran as a whole wants to destroy Israel this strategy does not make sense.

Just remember rhetoric is not evidence. Action is! To put it another way ever notice all those mullahs who want wood-ducks to kill themselves by killing 'infidels' never do it themselves!

undocumented immigrants and deportations

 Trump has done something remarkable. He is underwater in the polls on both immigration and deportations.

See Kruggers first

As Julius Sumner Miller would say why is this so?

My guess is because most people thought he would only go after 'rapists and murderers etc" even when he said there would be mass deportations. Going after the more obvious criminals would mean  very low deportations as immigrants do not commit many crimes. undocumented criminals even less because they are sent back to their home country after serving their sentence. 

Latinos certainly thought this as they voted for Trump in larger numbers than most thought they would. It is no coincidence we do see a lot of Mexican flags in demonstrations.

MAGA people are economically illiterate. Deporting millions of people would have a drastic effect on the economy. See Menzie Chinn for example. The building industry, agriculture ( wineries in particular), factories and personal child care would be severely affected. note all poor paying which is why undocumented immigrants take those type of jobs.

Trump had gone to and fro on this. He recognises the effect on these industries but must have high figures for political effect. So he comes up with the policy on concentrating on blue states. 

I do not see this as a viable political strategy indeed we may well see a Peter Wilson effect!

the world test championship

 I need to think about something good.

The WTC was indeed a good game of cricket.  Test cricket is by far the most superior form of cricket. This is because we wee and feel the ebbs and flows of the game.

That said a one-off game every year to determine the 'best' test team is highly problematic. We have had three games and only this one was memorable.

I must confess I thought we would easily beat south Africa. They do have a very good bowling attack but their batting lineup was weak. They relied on a few batsman.

Australia obviously thought the same way and selected an unbalanced team with several batsmen batting out of position.

As it was bowlers dominated the first two days with first Rabada and then Cummins showing why they are the best two bowlers in test cricket. ( If Rabada played for england and thus in many more tests he would end up the highest wicktaker in history.)

south Africa were lucky to bat when the qwicket flattened out with Markram playing a great innings. Bavuma again shoed he is a much better batsman when he is captain.

I really enjoyed the match possibly because test cricket is at its best when wickets are tumbling.

something to think about. When SA comes here in twwo seasons time possibly on Cummins will still be bowling at test level!

Israel and Iran

 The attack by Israel on Iran is a defacto declaration of war.

The justification for the attack is that if Iran were able to have up to 9 nuclear bombs Israel would be at risk. I have yet to find anyone across the political spectrum who disputes this but is it correct.

Let us assume Iran gained the capability of 9 nuclear bombs and they were able to arm their missiles to attack Israel with them.

This assumes Iran would be willing to destroy Israel knowing they would be destroyed by Israel's some 200 nukes it possesses.  They would be committing suicide for Iran as a whole simply to wipe Israel off the map.

The major problem with this hypothesis is there is NO evidence for it.  Iran outsources its terrorism. There are few if any instances of Iran people dying in the hope of being with a number of virgins in paradise. It is far more popular with sunnis than shias for reasons I do not understand. There are certainly no mullahs calling for it in Teheran.

This is why possessing a nuclear bomb is usually poor for a country's defence force. It is a purely defensive weapon to be used after another country threatens you. This is why it is called mutually assured destruction.

The very idea this action could mean regime change in Iran is laughable. Are the secret police resigning and 'joining in protests? It is equally laughable any nation would help Israel defend itself after it was the aggressor.

The world had Iran moving towards a non-nuclear future when Iran signed an agreement with the major western counties where Iran would gain in trade as sanctions on the country were eventually abolished. The Iranian people loved this as they voted in a reform government in a landslide as they believed it would lead to a stronger economy. It was Trump that broke that agreement when none of the other countries and nor any of his security agencies saw a problem.

Think about it because this vastly overweight idiot broke an agreement Iran no longer believes the USa in any agreement. The opportunity for Iran to concentrate on butter and not guns is now gone.

Well done!

Around the Traps 13/6/25

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Saul Eslake on the-widening-wealth-gap-and-what-do-about-it Thanks Nick
• Bernard Keane on hobart-afl-stadium-cost-devils-tasmanian-government-budget-deficit Thanks Nick
• Frank Bongiorno on defections-are-fairly-common-in-australian-politics-but-history-shows-they-are-rarely-a-good-career-move
• Adrian Beaumont on final-counting-shows-polls-understated-labor-in-2025-election-almost-as-much-as-they-overstated-it-in-2019
• Ross Gittins on if-bulldusting-about-productivity-was-productive-wed-all-be-rich , i-have-good-news-and-bad-news-about-your-superannuation
• croaking cassandra on the-orr-story-well-part-of-it-anyway , why-is-neil-quigley-still-rb-board-chair , quigley-orr-and-the-rb-board-edition-number-965
• Greg Jericho on wealthy-australians-are-worried-we-might-realise-how-rigged-the-system-is-in-their-favour
• Mark Beeson on goodbye-to-all-that-rethinking-australias-alliance-with-trumps-america
• Stephen Bartos on hard-to-measure-and-difficult-to-shift-the-governments-big-productivity-challenge
• Nicole Gurran on is-regulation-really-to-blame-for-the-housing-affordability-crisis
• Hugh Piper on australia-s-royal-dilemma-king-charles-serves-conflicting-commonwealth-interests
• John Blaxland on trump-may-try-to-strike-a-deal-with-aukus-review-but-heres-why-he-wont-sink-it

OZ Climate

• offshore-wind-insiders-hope-victorias-auction-will-give-industry-back-its-pep
  
• fear-of-big-battery-fires-is-experiencing-its-own-kind-of-thermal-runaway-is-it-justified
  
• state-blows-away-wind-generation-records-and-hits-a-new-big-battery-high
  
• literally-collapsing-around-workers-ageing-coal-plant-suffers-fresh-unplanned-outage
  
• sydney-can-become-its-own-renewable-energy-zone-take-a-load-off-nsw-regions
  
• the-clean-energy-transition-wont-succeed-without-community-trust-and-were-running-out-of-it
  
• australias-gas-supply-problem-has-a-demand-side-solution-that-would-be-a-win-for-industry-and-consumers
  
• the-technology-is-there-batteries-are-reinventing-the-grid-and-leading-way-to-100-pct-renewables
  
• home-battery-sales-outpace-new-solar-systems-for-first-time-ever-in-sign-of-boom-to-come
  
• the-technology-is-there-batteries-are-reinventing-the-grid-and-leading-way-to-100-pct-renewables
• electricity-market-step-change-will-pay-fast-flexible-technologies-to-smooth-bumpy-grid
  
• Samantha Hepburn on woodsides-north-west-shelf-approval-is-by-no-means-a-one-off-here-are-6-other-giant-gas-projects-to-watch
• Christian Downie on a-reversal-in-us-climate-policy-will-send-renewables-investors-packing-and-australia-can-reap-the-benefits
• Milana Bojovic on extreme-weather-could-send-milk-prices-soaring-deepening-challenges-for-the-dairy-industry

Northern America

• can we still govern on how-to-become-a-right-wing-star-harass-people Thanks Nick
• Geoff Beattie on why-the-musk-and-trump-relationship-is-breaking-down-a-psychologist-explains
• Charles Kurzman on trumps-justifications-for-the-latest-travel-ban-arent-supported-by-the-data-on-immigration-and-terrorism
• Joel Eissenberg on doge-savings-are-disappearing
• Eric Levitz on reading-books-decline-tiktok-oral-culture
• Tyler Cowen on americas-housing-supply-problem-the-closing-of-the-suburban-frontier
• Brad De Long on brad-setser-says-smart-things-on-exhorbinant-privilege-earned-and-unearned , on-the-political-economy-of-mendacity-in-21century-america
• Kruggers on nobody-expected-the-maga-inquisition , we-finally-know-what-american-carnage , if-you-lie-with-doge-you-get-fleeced , this-is-not-a-drill , reverse-robin-hood-and-trumpian-totalitarianism
• Menzie Chinn on macroeconomic-implications-of-premature-escalation-in-la , p-joyce-why-protecting-the-congressional-budget-office-should-matter-to-the-congress-and-to-the-country , economic-implications-of-a-narcissistic-populist-presidency
• April Herlevi on what-lies-beneath-trump-security-subsea-cables
• noahopinion on immigration-is-not-an-invasion-nor-should-it-be , a-bunch-of-thoughts-and-evidence-on-immigration
• the conversable economist on the-us-tax-code-reduces-rd-incentives
• Alex Tabarrok on our-felons-before-foreigners
• Mathew Ricketson on hed-only-have-to-show-proof-of-life-once-in-a-while-joe-bidens-advisors-hid-his-decline-and-the-media-didnt-dig-hard-enough
• Peter Greste on in-trumps-america-the-shooting-of-a-journalist-is-not-a-one-off-press-freedom-itself-is-under-attack
• Mark Stern on trump-illegal-deployment-national-guard-los-angeles , brett-kavanaugh-clarence-thomas-supreme-court-ada
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-02
• David Frum on trump-losing-trade-war
• Anne Applebaum on california-protests-ice-trump
• Emily Witt on looking-for-the-national-guard-in-los-angeles
• Jeet Heer on matthew-miller-biden-administration-liar , trump-musk-feud-democrats
• Nicole Narea on trump-immigration-worksite-raids-los-angeles-protests
• new deal democrat on consumer-price-inflation-once-again-all-clear-except-for-slowly-disinflating-shelter
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on king-trump-national-guard-illegal-los-angeles
• David Graham on alex-padilla-noem-dhs-handcuff-authoritarianism
• Sussan Glasser on donald-trumps-dictator-cosplay

Europe

• Mathew Sussex on the-secret-to-ukraines-battlefield-successes-against-russia-it-knows-wars-are-never-won-in-the-past
• Tyler Cowen on adam-tooze-on-european-military-spending , what-happened-when-spain-brought-back-the-wealth-tax

Asia

• Donald Rothwell on can-israel-still-claim-self-defence-to-justify-its-gaza-war-heres-what-the-law-says
• Christoph Bluth on why-south-koreas-new-leader-may-be-on-a-collision-course-with-trump
• Shannon Bosch on there-are-clear-laws-on-enforcing-blockades-israels-interception-of-the-madleen-raises-serious-questions
• Mohd Yunus on beijing-s-green-mirage-how-china-drives-environmental-destruction-abroad-while
• Jessica Whyte and Sara Dehm on sanctioning-extremist-israeli-ministers-is-a-start-but-australia-and-its-allies-must-do-more
• Robert Wihtol on china-banks-big-wins-trump-withdraws-global-aid-game
• Francis Wade on the-war-to-remake-myanmar
• Isaac Chotiner on an-inside-look-at-gazas-chaotic-new-aid-system
• Eyal Mayroz on global-outrage-over-gaza-has-reinforced-a-siege-mentality-in-israel-what-are-the-implications-for-peace
• Linda Jaivin on remembering-china-s-cultural-revolution-what-you-don-t-know-will-hurt-you
• Zack Beauchamp on israel-iran-war-missiles-tel-aviv-strike-nuclear
• Fred Kaplan on netanyahu-attacked-iran-israel-strike-united-states-response
• Isaac Stanley-Becker and Shane Harris on how-israel-surprised-iran
• Ruth Margalit on after-attacking-iran-israel-girds-for-whats-next

Wonk

• Rob Henderson on experts-and-elites-play-fundamentally-different-games Thanks Nick
• Bryan Caplan on the missing mood Thanks Nick
• Mark Pierce on with-friends-like-these
• Tim Harford on the-zero-sum-mindset-is-no-mystery
• noahopinion on its-ok-not-to-be-fat
• Kruggers on understanding-inequality-part-ii
• Venkat Narayanan on some-economists-have-called-for-a-radical-global-wealth-tax-on-billionaires-how-would-that-work
• Abhjinan Rej on social-media-there-was-shortwave-lessons-original-information-wars
• The conversable economist on taxing-capital-gains-only-after-realization
• Liz Anderson on empathy-as-a-sin

General

• Doug Muir on occasional-paper-the-impossible-predicament-of-the-death-newts
• Marc Bellamare on writing matters
• Katherina Peters on why-do-dolphins-jump-out-of-the-water
• Stephen Parapat on for-the-first-time-fossil-stomach-contents-of-a-sauropod-dinosaur-reveal-what-they-really-ate

Climate

• skeptical science on fact-brief-are-co2-measurements-reliable , is-china-finally-changing-its-climate-ways
• Moyhu on may-global-surface-templs-down-0088
• open mind on picking-up-speed , acceleration-in-other-data-sets
• David Appell on 15c-by-2035

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• on-the-statement-american-academia-is-entering-a-period-of-even-more-uncertainty
  
• more-on-close-reading-in-literature-and-statistics
  
• survey-statistics-kishs-and-mengs-design-effect
  
• scientific-poetic-license-what-do-you-call-it-when-someone-is-lying-but-theyre-doing-it-in-such-a-socially-acceptable-way-that-nobody-ever-calls-them-on-it
  
• what-does-neuromancer-have-to-teach-us-about-the-role-of-ai-is-society
  
• unfair-to-galton
  
• staschat on auckland-is-larger-than-wellington
• Kaiser Fung on electronic-line-calling-vs-ground-truth-in-tennis , interpreting-margins-of-error-in-tennis-calls

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• businesses-and-economists
  
• Andrew Gelman on nuking-new-york-never-easy , big-fiction-dan-sinykin-and-george-v-higgins
• Eric Schliesser on chibbers-confronting-capitalism-trump-and-the-cult-of-firing

Vox Wonk

• micro-and-macro-cost-price-dynamics-normal-times-and-during-inflation-surges
  
• sanctions-trade-shocks-and-firms-adjustment-margins 
• how-war-has-affected-scientific-research-ukraine
  
• practical-guide-running-social-media-experiments
  
• us-china-trade-war-created-jobs-elsewhere
  
• trumps-tariffs-disregarding-lessons-history-and-scenarios-and-probable-outcomes
  
• employment-protection-legislation-reforms-and-rising-cost-job-loss
  
• 2025-trade-war-dynamic-impacts-across-us-states-and-global-economy
  
• fiscal-sustainability-and-budgetary-inertia-when-checks-and-balances-really-matter
  
• dealing-trump-dos-and-donts
  
• ukrainian-refugee-labour-market-access-shows-no-impact-local-employment-outcomes
  
• great-wall-chinese-goods-effect-tariff-induced-re-rerouting-euro-area-consumer-prices
  
• climate-adaptation-and-inequality-lessons-cape-towns-drought
  

Empathy as a sin

 I read THIS today.

It is simply another example of people who think they are christians doing satan's work.

THIS is a long article and looks at this issue from a biblical perspective so if you are interested go for it

About time

 Australia and some other counties have actually acted.

On a related matter the Israeli government do not want aid delivered to Gaza unless they are involved. It matters not apparently more people have less food and are prone to starvation

Football socceroos Ange and a bit more

 Unless we go the full Trump the socceroos are off to the world cup. Under Poppa our defence has held up although our attack has been less than impressive. The game against Japan was terrible to watch. There were a mere two shots at goal in the match. Fortunately our shot made it and indeed it was a very good goal. Another irony is one of our worst players got the goal. However I never thought at any stage Japan would score even though some of our defenders di not play well.

We are off to northern america despite not having many good players. We are still playing players way past their best such as Behich and Duke. Why is Alex Robertson not being sought?

Still we have made it directly!

Ange was sacked and few journalists have talked about his overall strategy. When it was clear injuries meant there was no way Spurs could get to the Champions league directly he concentrated on both the FA cup and Europa league. He knew they would never be relegated. He missed out on the FA cup but won a terrible europa league final and thus Spurs eventually won a trophy and gained entry to the Champions league. He won it despite some key players being injured. It appears the board wanted better EPL results but do not seem to understand that would come at the expense of the Europa League. Replacing Ange with Frank is bad in two aspects. First Frank has never won anything. Second spurs will not play the entertaining football they did under Ange.

Lastly after a very good season Melbourne City won the grand final in another terrible game. Few people realise finals rarely produces good games as the stakes are too high. both teams do not want to lose. however fans do not care if they win ugly as long as they win!

US politics

 Liar V Liar

I am somewhat bemused by Musk and Trump having a go against each other.They are both kids who have never grown up. In Musk's case as I have said before he has doomed Tesla both because he is clearly not a genius, lies like therec is no tomorrow and his association with trump and his policies has poisoned tesla's sales probably until he leaves.

TRump does not believe Musk should be able to fund any party or person unless it is republican. 

Soft power

The current administration has no understanding of soft power. I have mentioned before how USaid was so essential to US soft power. However another example is the attempt to stop Harvard from getting foreign students. Harvard has always attracted the best and brightest from the world. These graduates have either gained employment in the USa or gone back to their own countries. either way the USA was viewed in favourable terms. The current policy even if ruled illegal by the courts will have the opposite effect. Indeed students will study in other countries where they know they will not be harassed because of their views.

Economic effects

When Trump cuts spending to Harvard he is cutting programs on RESEARCH mainly medical research. This research is gone. It cannot be picked up by any other institution. It also means the USA misses out on this research. Trade schools obviously do not do this research thus showing up more trump ignorance.Again it will not be strange if this research goes to other countries. Without incurring godwins law the best example of this is why the Nazis never developed an atomic bomb. 

Cabinet ineptness

Trumps cabinet is made up of incompetents. Neon does not understand what habeas corpus is. Kennedy has a report done by AI which has bogus sources in , Lutnik believes the USA can grow bananas to avoid tariffs only problem only Hawaii can do so because of climate!

THere are a few , only a few, who know the tariff policy is bad for the USA bu they stay mute!

Russia

Trump still believes Ukraine started the war despite russia invading it. He does not want to help Ukraine which means he is helping Russia.

Visas

People are not being granted visas if their social media accounts have anything critical of trump in it.

He has banned visas to anyone in a number of countries since an attack on jews in the USA BUT the man was from Egypt and guess what it aint one of the countries.

THE USA is on its way to not only becoming a failed state but an autocratic one. The rule of law is being subverted. you can do something illegal but it takes time for the law to catch up. The more the rule of law is subverted the more the market system cannot work

Whoopsy, I forgot about bribery. We have now seen Trump sue various media organisations for libel. His case has no legs at all and in normal circumstances they would easily win on court, However their other commercial interests are making them nervous so they offer to settle. This nothing but old fashioned bribery dressed up in a 'legal case'.

Around the Traps 6/6/25

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Peter Brent on trump-goes-missing Thanks Nick
• croaking cassandra on mpc-members-speaking , advertising-for-a-governor , central-banks-expressing-uncertainty , productivity-growth-languishing
• Ross Gittins on australia-cant-just-let-trump-do-what-he-wants , lets-stop-kidding-ourselves-taxes-will-have-to-go-up , in-one-awful-decision-albanese-reveals-his-do nothing-plan , someones-doing-heavy-lifting-and-its-not-the-government
• Antony Green on four-graphs-on-labors-landslide-victory
• Chris Murphy on tax-concessions-on-super-need-a-rethink-these-proposals-would-bring-much-needed-reform
• John Buchanan on australias-lowest-paid-workers-just-got-a-3-5-wage-increase-their-next-boost-could-be-even-better
• Sam Roggeveen on case-against-ramping-australia-s-defence-spending
• Greg Jericho on the-good-news-household-living-standards-are-on-the-rise-the-bad-news-just-about-everything-else
• Daniel Flitton on battle-royal-over-dollar-what-currency-means-nation
• Robert Hortle on tasmania-could-go-to-an-election-just-16-months-after-its-last-one-whats-going-on

OZ Climate

• Patrick Commins on north-west-shelf-gas-extension-australia-lng-woodside-project-little-rent-tax
• Jon Day and Scott Heron on unesco-expresses-utmost-concern-at-the-state-of-the-great-barrier-reef
• Kate Booth on nsw-is-again-cleaning-up-after-major-floods-are-we-veering-towards-the-collapse-of-insurability
• Jody Webster et al on will-surging-sea-levels-kill-the-great-barrier-reef-ancient-coral-fossils-may-hold-the-answer
• Emma Lovell and Jessica Allen on australias-latest-emissions-data-reveal-we-still-have-a-giant-fossil-fuel-problem
• Graham Readfearn on wa-coral-unprecedented-bleaching-event-ningaloo-reef
• offshore-wind-support-came-out-stronger-this-election-heres-what-labor-can-do-next
• the-end-of-australias-iron-ore-boom-and-the-rise-of-green-steel
  
• offshore-wind-support-came-out-stronger-this-election-heres-what-labor-can-do-next
  
• main-supplier-to-australias-most-powerful-big-battery-warns-it-may-go-out-of-business
  
• solar-farms-reduce-water-stress-improve-soils-and-plant-growth-new-study-finds
  
• the-end-of-australias-iron-ore-boom-and-the-rise-of-green-steel
  
• the-new-parliament-can-secure-a-sustainable-future-for-australian-homes-heres-how
• negative-demand-the-new-grid-reality-in-a-state-where-half-of-all-homes-have-rooftop-solar 
• broken-hill-blackout-network-operator-knew-its-back-up-was-out-of-action-but-didnt-tell-anyone
  

Northern  America

• institutional economics on taco-tuesday-judgement-day-for-ieepa
• stay slick on archeofuturism-the-secret-doctrine-of-the-american-techno-right Thanks Nick
• Felix Martin on great-boomer-selloff-may-overwhelm-us-stocks Thanks Nick
• Menzie Chinn on taking-economic-policy-uncertainty-seriously
• the conversable economist on will-the-courts-save-trump-from-his-tariffs , bernanke-on-federal-reserve-communication
• Huw Mackay on trump-art-bad-faith-deal
• Kruggers on hating-new-york , we-are-no-longer-a-serious-country, is-there-a-tariff-end-game , elon-musk-is-a-disgusting-abomination , wake-up-and-smell-the-corruption
• Dylan Mathews on bond-market-treasuries-tax-big-beautiful-bill-trump
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on supreme-court-analysis-trumps-chaos-john-roberts , supreme-courts-liberal-opinions-kagan-jackson-sotomayor
• Mark Stern on supreme-court-analysis-trump-powell-fed-chair-firing
• noahopinion on its-time-for-abundance-to-get-mad , even-if-trump-chickens-out-you-should-still-be-worried-about-the-economy
• Brad De Long on the-economist-is-not-amused , think-of-it-as-generating-our-investment-surplus , friday-macro-sitch-watching
• Eric Schliesser on on-the-political-roots-of-academic-freedom
• Jonathan Chait on medicaid-cuts-tax-bill
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-trump-civil-servants-owen-immigration-judges
• Abdallah Fayyad on big-government-small-government-trump-democracy
• Rozini Ali on theyre-here-to-detain-me
• John Washington on the-roots-of-bukeles-gulag
• Jack Herrara on trumps-de-legalization-campaign
• Eric Lutz on donald-trump-pardons-maga-allies
• Jeet Heer on michael-ledeen-obituary-american-fascism , elon-musk-drug-use-ideology
• Pete Millwood on what-us-could-lose-closing-its-universities-china
• Andrew Prokop on elon-musk-trump-feud-bill-contracts-nasa
• Rozina Ali on theyre-here-to-detain-me
• Susan Glasser on the-musk-trump-divorce-is-as-messy-as-you-thought-it-would-be

Europe

• Paul Adams on ukraines audacious drone sends a critical message to russia and the west
• Dymtro Kuleba on delusions-peacemaking-ukraine
• Adam Simpson on pro-trump-candidate-wins-polands-presidential-election-a-bad-omen-for-the-eu-ukraine-and-women
• Mick Ryan on three-punch-combo-behind-ukraine-s-spectacular-drone-strike-russia
• Phillips O'Brien on ukraine-new-war-drone-strike
• renew economy on denmark-approves-first-lifespan-extension-for-one-of-worlds-oldest-offshore-wind-farms
• Mathew Sussex on the-secret-to-ukraines-battlefield-successes-against-russia-it-knows-wars-are-never-won-in-the-past
• David Kirichenko on ukraine-s-cheap-robot-drones-extract-heavy-price-russia

Asia

• digressions impressions on israels-strategic-cul-de-sac Thanks Nick
• Ryosuke Hananda on can-japan-fill-leadership-void-america-steps-back-asia
• Andrew Thomas on a-two-state-solution-is-gaining-momentum-again-does-it-have-a-chance-of-success
• Vu Lam on tariff-war-s-accelerating-asia-s-trade-transformation
• Neve Gordon et al on the-shame-of-israeli-medicine
• Chae Jeong on transactional-worldview-south-korea-s-new-president
• Hana Rosin on mossads-former-chief-calls-the-war-in-gaza-useless
• Issac Chotiner on why-ehud-olmert-thinks-his-country-is-committing-war-crimes

Wonk

• The ruffian on were-all-viennese-now Thanks Nick
• the common reader on the-humanities-help-us-find-the-people-we-want-to-know Thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on beware-giffen-ish-vibes-in-the-money-markets
• noahopinion on the-anti-economists-have-overreached , how-chinese-drones-could-defeat-america
• Kruggers on understanding-inequality-part-i
• Brad De Long on understanding-inequality  , mondays-with-the-machine
• Menzie Chinn on global-imbalances-as-global-recession-ews
• Benjamin Moffitt on what-is-populism
• Marcel Plincta on russia-has-been-working-on-creating-drones-that-call-home-go-undercover-and-start-fires-heres-how-they-work
• Andrew Gelman on monsters-a-fans-dilemma
• the conversable economist on some-economics-of-africas-struggle
• Tyler Cowen on claims-about-debt-and-productivity-growth

General

• Rachel Brown and Rob Brooks on your-smartphone-is-a-parasite-according-to-evolution
• Ruby Wright and Alexander Rawlings on astronomers-thought-the-milky-way-was-doomed-to-crash-into-andromeda-now-theyre-not-so-sure

Climate

• Alex Chalmers on the-bad-science-behind-expensive-nuclear Thanks Nick
• Seven Teske on earth-is-heading-for-2-7-c-warming-this-century-we-may-avoid-the-worst-climate-scenarios-but-the-outlook-is-still-dire
• Real Climate on predicted-arctic-sea-ice-trends-over-time
• skeptical science on was global warming changed to climate change because the Earth stopped warming , climate change-makes-hurricanes-more-destructive , new_research
• David Appell on hadcet-warmest-meteorological-spring
• Mathew England and Alex Gupta on unprecedented-heat-in-the-north-atlantic-ocean-kickstarted-europes-hellish-2023-summer-now-we-know-what-caused-it

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• statistical-graphics-when-does-it-make-sense-to-introduce-deliberate-distortion-to-counteract-an-expected-perceptual-illusion
  
• the-ladder-of-abstraction-in-statistical-graphics
  
• survey-statistics-it-is-the-people
  
• pascals-triangle-and-the-ramanujan-principle
  
• gold-standard-science
  
• survey-statistics-2-flavors-of-calibration
  
• more-on-the-emptiness-of-the-governments-gold-standard-science-slogan
  
• different-sequences-in-narrative-why-suspense-can-go-flat
  
• anything-you-can-do-with-bayesian-inference-you-can-do-in-other-ways-bayesian-inference-is-a-bit-like-calculus-you-can-do-derivatives-and-integrals-without-calculus-indeed-mathematicians-in-pre-ne
  
• when-are-ai-ml-models-unlikely-to-help-with-decision-making
  
• statschat on cancer-and-exercise , briefly
• Kaiser Fung on metrics-for-evaluating-passkeys

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• what-ive-been-reading
  
• Jonathan Ree on like-a-top-hat Thanks Nick

Vox Wonk

• tariffs-across-supply-chain
  
• global-impact-ai-mind-gap
  
• fully-remote-work-expands-recruitment-and-boosts-productivity
  
• fiscal-stagnation
  
• missing-tariffs-how-flawed-data-turn-trade-policy-analysis-herculean-task
  
• home-charging-and-plug-hybrid-electric-vehicles-strategy-real-world-emissions
  
• private-safe-asset-supply-and-financial-instability
  
• how-french-firms-navigated-inflation-surge-lessons-expectations-and-decision-making
  
• industrial-policy-lessons-east-germanys-privatisation
  
• anatomy-of-the-phillips-curve
  
• artificial-intelligence-finance