The Melbourne Cup is a joke

 I am always amazed by the support of people for the Melbourne Cup.

1. It encourages gambling which is a sin. You are getting something for nothing. Gambling involves a lot of money from 'problem gamblers. families lose. 
2. Productivity falls. Workers are not doing productive work when they are drinking ( usually to excess), and not doing the work they are paid for.
3. It can lead to violence ( because of 1).

Only in Australia.

Pokies as money laundering

 Charles Livingstone, the academic doyen on examining gambling in Australia has an article entitled pubs-and-clubs-your-friendly-neighbourhood-money-laundering-service-thanks-to-86-640-pokies.

As the late Mr Spock would say fascinating

Around the Traps 28/10/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Allakbar Gholampour on a-green-trifecta-how-a-concrete-alternative-can-cut-emissions-resource-use-and-waste
• Flavio Macau and Amy Cosby on floods-pandemics-wars-and-market-forces-whats-driving-up-the-price-of-milk
• renew economy on victoria-counts-on-30-billion-of-offshore-wind-not-much-solar-to-replace-coal, has-queensland-overpumped-its-pumped-hydro-plans, we-dont-need-solar-technology-breakthroughs-we-just-need-connections, australia-scrambles-to-keep-up-with-battery-inverters-hydrogen-and-green-targets, methane-pledge-is-not-about-cow-burps-it-means-no-new-coal-and-gas-projects, nsw-landowners-to-get-800m-to-host-high-voltage-transmission-in-renewables-push, energy-loss-is-single-biggest-component-of-todays-fossil-based-electricity-system, wind-and-solar-smash-production-records-but-old-fossils-keep-energy-prices-high, big-batteries-make-their-mark-on-the-grid-as-they-start-to-shift-more-energy, rooftop-solar-meets-all-local-network-demand-in-south-australia-for-more-than-five-hours
• Mark Howden on no-signing-the-global-methane-pledge-wont-end-the-backyard-barbecue-itll-strengthen-aussie-industries
• Quentin Grafton et al on excessive-water-extractions-not-climate-change-are-most-to-blame-for-the-darling-river-drying
• John Quiggin on labors-love-lost-the-tide-is-turning-on-private-ownership-of-electricity-grids
• Mark Ellis on some-councils-still-rely-on-outdated-paper-maps-as-supercharged-storms-make-a-mockery-of-flood-planning
• James Cotton on australia-s-road-geneva
• Institutional Economics on is-fit-the-best-fit
• Greg Jericho on six-budget-2022-graphs-you-need-to-see-october-labor-economy-predictions-revenue-wage-gdp-growth-unemployment-inflation-australia, why-is-the-cost-of-living-going-crazy-even-as-the-reserve-bank-raises-rates
• Madelaine Taylor on australia-is-poised-to-be-a-world-leader-in-offshore-wind-but-any-potential-risks-to-marine-life-remain-poorly-regulated
• Wes Mountain on everything-you-need-to-know-about-labors-first-budget-in-6-charts
• John Hawkins on the-beginning-of-something-new-how-the-2022-23-budget-does-things-differently
• Peter Martin on jim-chalmers-2022-23-budget-mantra-whatever-you-do-dont-fuel-inflation
• Ben Scott on jerusalem-rules-based-order-deal-making
• Marion Terrill on budget-restraint-when-it-comes-to-transport-projects-its-hard-to-find
• Penny Allan et al on beyond-a-state-of-sandbagging-what-can-we-learn-from-all-the-floods-here-and-overseas
• Timothy Neal on labors-sensible-budget-leaves-australians-short-changed-on-climate-action-heres-where-it-went-wrong
• James Martin and Chad Allen on why-are-there-so-many-data-breaches-a-growing-industry-of-criminals-is-brokering-in-stolen-data
• Zack Domer on farmers-need-certainty-over-emissions-pricing-removing-government-from-the-equation-might-help
• James Pittock on money-for-dams-dries-up-as-good-water-management-finally-makes-it-into-a-federal-budget
• Paul Strangio on as-uk-politics-descends-into-chaos-might-australia-finally-have-reached-a-point-of-stability
• Rod Sims on cheaper-gas-and-electricity-prices-are-within-australias-grasp-heres-what-to-do
• Samantha Hepburn on will-your-energy-bills-ever-come-down-only-if-labor-gets-serious-with-the-gas-majors
• Ben Livings and Rick Sarre on why-was-the-lehrmann-trial-aborted-and-what-happens-next
• Croaking Cassandra on rodger-finlay

Northern America

• the conversable economist on marijuana-taxes-how-to-do-it
• Johanna Weaver on clampdown-on-chip-exports-is-the-most-consequential-us-move-against-china-yet
• Alex Tabarrok on pollution-and-macro-inequality
• Tyler Cowen on are-unions-the-saviors-of-workers
• Ben Wellings on who-is-rishi-sunak-the-new-uk-prime-minister
• Li Zhou on democrats-debt-ceiling-lame-duck-kevin-mccarthy
• Michael Schuman on biden-export-control-microchips-china
• James Hamilton on not-a-recession-yet
• Nathaniel Bach and Richard Hasen on supreme-court-voting-case-disaster-harper-moore
• Mark Stern on republican-trump-federal-judges-defy-precedent
• New Deal Democrat on the-treasury-yield-curve-has-now-almost-totally-inverted
• Marcy Wheeler on john-durhams-investigation-disclosed-corruption-his-own Thanks Brad

Europe

• Ellen Ioanes on russia-infrastructure-ukraine-kherson-oblast-dam
• Michael Bluhm on liz-truss-britain-uk-brexit-boris-johnson
• Mainly Macro on the-uk-treasury-since-1976
• Eric Kramer on how-does-the-war-in-ukraine-end-2
• Infidel 753 on putins-war-comes-home
• spytalk on russian-armys-quiet-fatal-flaw-no-seargants thanks Brad
• Dreck Thompson on uk-economy-disaster-degrowth-brexit

Asia

• Brad De Long on what-just-happened-to-hu-jintao (lots of links)
• Menzie Chinn on how-can-one-guide-an-economy-if-one-doesnt-know-where-it-is, 3-9-and-3-9-china-y-y-and-q-q-gdp-growth
• Tony Walker on xi-cements-his-power-at-chinese-communist-party-congress-but-he-is-still-exposed-on-the-economy
• Brendan Scott on surprises-at-xi-s-coronation-show-risks-lurking-in-third-china-term Thanks Brad
• Xiao Zibang on the-seven-men-who-will-lead-china-into-xi-s-third-term Thanks Brad
• noahopinion on why-i-think-an-invasion-of-taiwan-probably-means-WW3
• Gabriela Bernal on korean-peninsula-still-poses-major-risks
• Lisa Singh and Lewis Baker on australia-s-shared-security-indian-ocean
• Thi Nguyen on even-now-standing-supreme-xi-has-limits-his-power

Wonk

• Spring Zhou and Tava Olsen on what-should-rich-countries-do-with-spare-masks-and-gloves-its-the-opposite-of-what-the-who-recommends
• Tim Harford on how-much-money-will-actually-make-you-happy
• Andrew Abel and Stavross Panageas on running primary deficits forever Thanks Brad
• Nick Gruen on polarisation-and-the-case-for-citizens-juries
• the conversable economist on eight-billion-and-counting, loopholes-in-the-global-corporate-minimum-tax
• noahopinion on the-end-of-the-system-of-the-world, are-the-uk-japan-and-italy-undeveloping-countries

General

• Ari Mattes on in-praise-of-the-horror-master-stephen-king

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on responses-to-considering-catastrophe
• noahopinion on why-per-capita-emissions-is-a-bad-frame-for-the-climate-debate
• Skeptical Science on climate change made northern hemisphere droughts worse, battling heatwaves

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• statistical-methods-that-only-work-if-you-dont-use-them
  
• last-post-on-that-100000-uber-paper
  
• funny-nyt-corrections
  
• best-letter-to-the-editor-ever-tocqueville-and-algeria
  
• speculating-about-assigning-probabilities-to-speculative-theories-lots-of-problems-here
  
• you-can-read-for-free-but-comments-cost-money-or-is-it-the-other-way-around
  
• graphs-do-not-lead-people-to-infer-causation-from-correlation
  
• Kaiser Fung on why-no-serious-reseachers-conduct-per-protocol-analyses

Econometrics

• No Hesitations on moral-hazard-in-climate-change
• Freakometrics on climate risk a slow long term risk

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• discord-and-david-hume
  

Vox Wonk

• supply-shocks-monetary-policy-and-scarring
  
• role-international-investment-agreements-attracting-japanese-foreign-direct
  
• sliding-safely-down-beveridge-curve
  
• casualties-border-changes-evidence-nighttime-lights-and-plant-exit
  
• transmission-resources-and-wellbeing-across-generations
  
• beyond-headlines-trust-government
  
• was-post-global-financial-crisis-collapse-real-interest-rates-secular
  
• tertiarisation-china
  
• funding-agencies-and-selection-risky-research-evidence-european-research-council
  
• disaster-children-effects-covid-19-school-closure-primary-school-students-cognitive
  
• simple-economics-panic-2022-nobel-prize-perspective
  
• college-majors-affect-more-just-average-earnings
  
• increasing-age-friendliness-us-employment
  

the Inflation data was bad

 The ABS released the quarterly CPI data yesterday.

It was a shocker. The trimmed mean was bad as well although the weighted median less so for reasons i am unsure about.

Two things arise from this. The RBA will go harder and longer then previously thought. Perhaps they may go 50 points next tuesday but I think It will be 25 points and another 25 points in december.

The odds of a recession just increased.

The budget

 okay here are a few articles

• australia-news/commentisfree/2022/oct/25/six-budget-2022-graphs-you-need-to-see-october-labor-economy-predictions-revenue-wage-gdp-growth-unemployment-inflation-australia
  
• everything-you-need-to-know-about-labors-first-budget-in-6-charts
  
• the-beginning-of-something-new-how-the-2022-23-budget-does-things-differently
  
• jim-chalmers-2022-23-budget-mantra-whatever-you-do-dont-fuel-inflation
  

Just a few points.  They inherited a structural deficit of around $ 30-40b. ( you cannot be precise about this term unfortunately.

Going to hard too fast given what the RBA is doing would guarantee a recession rather than a slowdown. Thus it is stuck between a rock and a hard place. As Wayne Swan found out if you need to cut structural deficit the RBA needs to cut interest rates.

It is very good they are banking most of the extra revenues. It is also good they are quite restrained on spending.

However more spending cuts were needed more so given the new priories the government has.

Why the government has not introduced a supernormal profits tax on energy companies because of the explosion on fossil fuel prices ( which is predicted to continue) is simply madness.

They could have done better bbut we wait fo the next budget next May.

The Murray Darling problem

 An excellent article today claiming water extraction not climate change is mainly to blame for problems there. 

Queensland's pumped Hydro not needed?

 David Leitch writing in Renew Economy writes has-queensland-overpumped-its-pumped-hydro-plans.

It well worth a read. He believes more wind would be better and like the Kurri Kurri gas station it wil lnot be used much.

Around the Traps 21/10/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Milton Speer et al on cotton-on-one-of-australias-most-lucrative-farming-industries-is-in-the-firing-line-as-climate-change-worsens
• John Quiggin on in-sticking-with-tax-cuts-divorced-from-reality-labor-is-left-with-a-hard-choice
• Croaking Cassandra on rodger-finlay-the-treasurys-incident-report, taxes, inflation-and-monetary-policy-2, a-bad-idea
• renew economy on australias-biggest-network-battery-to-be-built-at-site-of-demolished-coal-power-station, snowy-contractor-shares-plunge-after-it-reveals-acute-working-capital-issues, solar-eliminates-nearly-all-grid-demand-as-its-powers-south-australia-grid-during-day, does-the-nem-have-a-future-in-the-energy-transition-or-will-states-resort-to-mimbyism, this-is-a-big-deal-labor-rolls-out-package-for-offshore-wind-marinus-and-victoria-renewables, australia-can-slash-emissions-81-pct-by-2030-using-existing-technologies-report-says, one-third-of-solar-projects-over-promise-and-under-deliver-on-generation-report-finds, victoria-fast-tracks-coal-exit-with-95-pct-renewable-target-2035
• Andrew Norton on university-fees-are-poised-to-change-a-new-system-needs-to-consider-how-much-courses-cost-and-what-graduates-can-earn
• Peter Martin on australia-needs-an-honest-conversation-about-tax-and-budgets-and-jim-chalmers-is-ready-to-talk
• Alex Simpson on star-sydney-suspension-how-do-casino-operators-found-so-unfit-get-to-keep-their-licences
• Euan Ritchie on gut-wrenching-and-infuriating-why-australia-is-the-world-leader-in-mammal-extinctions-and-what-to-do-about-it
• Tony Walker on australias-reversal-on-recognising-jerusalem-as-israeli-capital-is-simply-a-return-to-status-quo
• Stephen Hamilton on global-recession-looks-likely-even-if-australia-escapes-it-we-are-in-for-a-bad-couple-of-years
• Tony Wood on victoria-signals-end-of-coal-by-announcing-a-new-95-renewable-target-its-a-risky-but-vital-move
• Susanna Patton on supporting-democracy-without-fighting-autocracies

Northern America

• David French on mitt-romney-gop-martyr-theory-trump-base Thanks Brad
• noahopinion on biden-declares-economic-war-on-the-chinese-semi-conductor-industry, national-conservatism-has-no-coherent-workables-plan-for-america
• Nate Silver on betting-markets-are-treating-the-midterm-elections-like-its-a-presidential-election
• the conversable economist on the-white-black-wealth-ratio-since-1870
• Tyler Cowen on did-bernanke-and-all-that-qe-cause-the-current-inflation
• the warning on the-country-is-edging-towards-an-abyss Thanks Brad
• letters from an American on october-16-2022 Thanks Brad
• Eyes on the right on the-ever-more-incoherent-gop Thanks Brad
• David Smith on the-united-states-is-gearing-up-for-midterm-elections-what-are-they-and-whats-at-stake
• the conversable economist on from-an-unapologetic-safety-regulator
• Jeet Heer on us-saudi-relationship-oil
• Stephen Salickey on 4-3-trillion-readers-cant-be-wrong-why-the-onions-defence-of-satire-should-be-heard-by-the-us-supreme-court
• Ben Scott on competing-cooperating-paradox-us-strategy
• Jane Mayer on the-conservative-stalwart-challenging-the-far-right-legal-theory-that-could-subvert-american-democracy
• Ian Millhiser on cfpb-unconstitutional-fifth-circuit-supreme-court-trump-community-financial
• Mark Stern on trumpiest-federal-appeals-court-kills-cfpb-fifth-circuit

Europe

• Mathew Sussex on vladimir-putin-is-increasingly-isolated-in-russia-and-abroad-does-he-have-an-exit-strategy
• Daniel Drezner on putin-russia-missile-attack-ukraine-civilians
• stumbling and mumbling on non-lessons-of-the-fiasco, the-cost-cutting-error
• Menzie Chinn on forecasts-of-russian-gdp-pre-and-post
• Ben Wellings on theres-something-wrong-with-british-politics-its-called-the-conservative-party
• Robert Horvath on banality-putin-s-evil
• Tom McTague on liz-truss-uk-britain-economy-brexit
• Robert Skidelsky on gorbachev-tragic-legacy-now-global Thanks Brad
• Mathew Flinders on liz-truss-resigns-as-prime-minister-the-five-causes-of-her-downfall-explained
• Thomas Caygill on liz-truss-what-happened-in-the-night-of-westminster-chaos-that-triggered-the-pms-resignation

Asia

• Bloomberg on china-national-party-congress-xi-rules
• the ruck on china-taiwan-war
• Cherry Hitkari on can-china-build-community-shared-oceans
• Syed Fazl-E-Haider on enemies-education-are-back-malala-s-hometown
• Mizz Akhtar on china-communist-party-congress-xi-jinping-explainer
• Mark Beeson on could-china-save-world
• noahopinion on xi-jinping-forever
• Yu Tao on how-will-china-interact-with-the-world-over-the-next-5-years-xis-new-speech-holds-clues
• China Talk on export-controls-xis-s-and-t-dreams Thanks Brad
• Christopher de Bellaigue on khameneis-dilemma-christopher-de-bellaigue
• Menzie Chinn on china-q3-gdp-is-a-mystery, economic-policy-making-groups
• Jennifer Hsu on china-xi-party-endless-struggle

Wonk

• Jon Askonas on why-conservatism-failed Thanks Nick
• Social Europe on does-the-united-nations-still-exist Thanks Nick
• Thomas Nagel on richard-rorty-america Thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on economists-must-get-more-in-touch-with-our-feelings
• Ewan Short on a-cunning-plan-how-la-nina-unleashes-squadrons-of-storm-clouds-to-wreak-havoc-in-your-local-area
• Richard Fontaine on under-pressure-present-future-international-order
• John Quiggin on capitalism-without-capital-doesnt-work-the-future-of-the-information-non-economy
• Perry Mehrling on reading-kindleberger-on-bernanke Thanks Brad
• Menzie Chinn on jeffry-frieden-the-politics-of-exchange-rates-podcast
• Mainly Macro on why-it-is-crucial-to-understand-why-financial-markets-move
• Tyler Cowen on classical-liberalism-vs-the-new-right
• Chris Fleming and Jane Goodall on friday-essay-george-orwell-is-everywhere-but-nineteen-eighty-four-is-not-a-reliable-guide-to-contemporary-politics
• Greg Earl on economic-diplomacy-imf-faces-us-reality-check

General

• Peter Tuthill on alien-megastructures-cosmic-thumbprint-whats-behind-a-james-webb-telescope-photo-that-had-even-astronomers-stumped
• Miriam Kramer on jwst-pillars-of-creation-photo

Climate

• Moyhu on giss-september-global-temperature-down-from-august
• renew economy on wind-and-solar-payback-drops-to-less-than-a-year-thanks-to-fossil-fuel-crisis, massive-20mw-turbines-proposed-for-worlds-first-subsidy-free-floating-wind-farm
• Tyler Cowen on a-simple-explainer-on-global-warming-positions

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• mit-built-a-theranos-for-plants-update
  
• cheating-in-sports-vs-cheating-in-journalism-vs-cheating-in-science
  
• david-blackwell-stories
  
• newtons-third-law-of-reputations
  
• the-psychology-of-thinking-discretely
  
• from-soup-to-bayes-make-inferences-using-strong-assumptions-not-because-you-believe-your-model-but-because-you-dont-believe-it
  
• Kaiser Fung on all-evidence-are-not-created-equal-and-some-evidence-are-more-equal-than-others, gelmans-museum-of-scholarly-misconduct-1

Econometrics

• nuttin

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Brad De Long on first-alan-blinders-monetary-and-fiscal-history

Vox Wonk

• assessing-distributional-effects-real-time-pricing-electricity
  
• immigrants-and-distribution-income-and-wealth-euro-area
  
• long-run-economic-impact-utero-shocks
  
• ancestral-livelihoods-and-moral-universalism-evidence-transhumant-pastoralist
  
• giant-funds-and-market-mispricing
  
• pre-war-data-and-inflation-hike-post-covid-19
  
• wartime-children-and-long-term-mental-health
  
• implications-buying-house-peak-business-cycle
  
• identifying-foreign-exchange-interventions-news-reports-new-data
  
• knowledge-flows-public-labs-private-firms
  
• teaching-evolution-theory-shapes-students-beliefs-and-choices
  
• supply-shocks-monetary-policy-and-scarring
  

A better view of Putin?

 Robert Horvath of the excellent Lowy Institute writes about the banality of Putin's evil.

It is a must read

China

 Is China surging forward and what is its future?

Steve from Brisbane has a good article, Noah Smith has another very good article as well.

another look at the UK

 Stumbling and mumbling has a unique view on the farce that is occuring in the UK. It is well worth a read.

cotton in the firing line

 It is ironic that cotton is in the firing line because of climate change here in Australia.

Around the Traps 14/10/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Bruce Mountain on the-end-of-coal-fired-power-is-in-sight-even-with-private-interests-holding-out
• Frank Bongornio on the-liberal-party-is-in-a-dire-state-across-australia-right-now-that-should-worry-us-all
• Kate Griffiths et al on all-governments-are-guilty-of-running-political-ads-on-the-public-purse-heres-how-to-stop-it
• Ross Gittins on creative-destruction-even-pandemics-have-their-upside
• Catherine Bennett and Hassan Vally on how-should-we-manage-covid-without-rules-keep-testing-and-stay-home-when-positive
• Armaruim Interretta on federal-elections-closeness
• renew economy on bowen-tackles-carbon-market-reform-with-new-look-safeguard-mechanism-but-is-it-enough,wave-power-generators-could-help-to-firm-solar-and-wind-says-report, solar-powers-up-at-australias-biggest-hybrid-renewables-park, a-big-shock-for-the-electricity-market-but-is-it-a-crisis, chart-of-the-day-australias-best-performing-solar-farms, amid-power-price-hike-mayhem-bowen-invokes-the-c-word, energyaustralia-shakes-off-coal-blues-with-plan-for-one-of-australias-biggest-batteries
• Greg Jericho on as-imf-alarm-bells-ring-australia-is-stuck-between-inflation-and-a-looming-global-recession
• Croaking Cassandra on accountability-document-with-no-accountability, appointing-an-mpc
• Margaret Cook on floods-in-victoria-are-uncommon-heres-why-theyre-happening-now-and-how-they-compare-to-the-past
• Gareth Hutchens on why-could-power-bills-rise-by-35-per-cent-next-year

Northern America

• Sean Illing on tim-miller-trump-maga-republicans-stefanik
• noahopinion on why-i-dont-think-the-fed-will-back-off
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-gauging-recessions-with-the-jobs-worker-gap-updated
• Nathaniel Rackich on secretary-of-state-elections
• letters from an American on october-11-2022 Thanks Brad
• Jeet Heer on maga-wave-midterm-elections, herschel-walker-abortion-gop
• Jonquilyn Hill on october-surprises-2022-midterms
• Franklin Foer on merrick-garland-donald-trump-investigation-indictment
• Jake Tapper on campaign-to-free-incarcerated-philadelphia-teenager-sixth-amendment
• the conversable economist on monetary-tightening-previous-us-episodes
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-trump-mar-a-lago-fbi-search-classified-united-states-aileen-cannon-special-master
• Mark Stern on supreme-court-ghost-guns-serial-number-clarence-thomas
• Calculated Risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-07

Europe

• Project Syndicate on is-putin-in-peril Thanks Brad
• Jacob Soll on liz-truss-britannia-unchained-dystopia Thanks Brad
• Nicole Narea on crimea-bridge-explosion-putin-ukraine-russia
• stumbling and mumbling on origins-of-the-tory-implosion
• Robert Horvath on a-rebuke-to-putins-dictatorship-russian-human-rights-group-memorial-wins-joint-nobel-peace-prize
• Robert Thornton on ukraine-war-putins-off-ramp-and-why-he-is-unlikely-to-take-it
• Colin Caprani and Sam Rigby on crimean-bridge-blast-experts-assess-the-damage
• Mick Ryan on the-one-man-now-leading-russias-invasion-in-ukraine
• Jen Kirby on ukraine-airstrikes-putin-russia-war
• slow boring on europe-should-look-at-hard-rationing and price controls on gas Thanks Brad
• the unpopulist on there-is-a-name-for-melonis-blend-of-socialism-and-nationalism Thanks Brad
• Frank Ledwidge on ukraine-war-a-desperate-russia-defaults-to-attacking-civilians
• Robert Ayson on if-russia-breaks-nuclear-taboo
• Mainly Macro on the-self-destructive-political-right

Asia

• Khang Vu on come-what-may-north-korea-perseveres
• Nancy Qian on xi-economic-record-first-two-terms Thanks Brad
• Arshin Adib-Moghaddun on iran-the-hijab-protests-are-now-massive-but-a-revolution-will-need-the-military-to-change-sides
• Eliz Sanasarian on headcovers-have-always-been-political-in-iran-for-women-on-all-sides
• Hamish McDonald on xi-jinping-when-enough-too-much
• Gregory Allen on choking-chinas-access-future-ai Thanks Brad
• trade war on trade-war-c5a Thanks Brad
• Tony Walker on women-led-protests-in-iran-gather-momentum-but-will-they-be-enough-to-bring-about-change
• Ian Johnson on china-back-to-authoritarianism
• Barkley Rosser on iranian-demonsttations-spread-to-oil-workers

Wonk

• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-gauging-recessions-with-the-jobs-worker-gap-updated
• Cordella Fine on new-ethics-guidance-for-top-science-journals-aims-to-root-out-harmful-research-but-can-it-succeed
• Tim Harford on what-we-keep-getting-wrong-about-inflation
• the conversable economist on why-do-so-many-interventions-help-women-but-not-men, a-nobel-for-insights-about-banks-and-financial-crises-bernanke-diamond-and-dybvig, africa-too-many-currencies
• renew economy on is-the-world-on-track-to-move-past-coal-oil-and-gas-production
• Claudio Bozzi on the-nord-stream-breaches-are-a-stark-reminder-of-the-vulnerabilities-in-undersea-infrastructure
• Elena Carletti on nobel-economics-prize-insights-into-financial-contagion-changed-how-central-banks-react-during-a-crisis
• Tyler Cowen on the-diamond-and-dybvig-model, the-economic-contributions-of-ben-bernanke
• Alex Tabarrok on the-nobel-prize-goes-to-bernanke-and-diamond-and-dybvig
• noahopinion on an-econ-nobel-for-research-that-saved-the-world, why-cant-economists-predict-financial-crises
• interfluidity on liberalism V democracy thanks Brad
• civita on what-we-know-and-dont-know-about-the-new-geopolitical-and-geoeconomic-order Thanks Brad
• Institutional economics on what-i-learned-from-ben-bernanke
• Adrian Linacre on dna-is-often-used-in-solving-crimes-but-how-does-dna-profiling-actually-work
• ground truths on the-marked-contrast-in-pandemic-outcomes Thanks Brad
• Brad De Long on more-musings-on-keynes-as-conservative

General

• Emily Finch on these-stunning-satellite-images-look-like-abstract-art-and-they-reveal-much-about-our-planet
• Tim Parks on the-popes-many-silences-tim-parks
• Chelsea Leu on my-high-school-crush-on-steely-dan

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on no-a-cherry-picked-analysis-doesnt-demonstrate-that-were-not-in-a-climate-crisis, how-to-lord-comment-sections
• Moyhu on september-global-surface-templs-down-from-august
• Lisa Cox on australian-scientists-observe-rapid-decline-in-adelie-penguin-numbers-off-antarctic-coast
• real climate on scafetta-comes-back-for-more
• the conversable economist on ethanol-controversies-redux
• Menzie Chinn on global-land-sea-temperature

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• its-doxtastic
  
• who-rotated-my-cookie-the-all-too-common-mistake-when-presenting-bayesian-inference-to-strain-at-the-gnat-of-the-prior-while-swallowing-the-camel-of-the-likelihood
  
• quantitative-science-is-indirectly-relevant-to-the-real-world-also-some-comments-on-the-case-against-education
  
• depressingly-unbothered
  
• blogs-twitter-again
  
• bill-james-vs-kahneman-and-tversky
  
• Kaiser Fung on to-prove-inflation-get-some-inflated-data

Econometrics

• no hesitations on machine-learning-and-central-banking

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• liz-truss-vision-of-the-future-outdated-disastrous
  
• noahopinion on book-review-freedoms-forge
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox wonk

• impact-war-ukraine-energy-prices-consequences-firms-financial-performance
  
• tilting-balance-green-quantitative-easing-and-carbon-pricing
  
• sticky-wages-and-great-depression
  
• working-home-around-world
  
• moral-universalism-global-evidence
  
• how-popular-personal-finance-advice-compares-economic-theory
  
• capital-requirements-and-lending-basel-iii-has-something-teach-us
  
• political-u-new-perspective-democracy-and-growth
  
• policy-coordination-and-geographical-targeting-during-pandemics
  
• labour-markets-are-not-tight-you-think
  
• employer-power-and-employment-developing-countries
  
• fiscal-costs-leaning-against-wind-exchange-rate-interventions
  
• dual-interest-rates-and-transmission-monetary-policy
  
• exciting-boring-and-non-existent-skylines-vertical-building-gaps-global-perspective
  

When climate deniers get it badly wrong

 A really interesting article at Real Climate on papers by a person named Scafetta who gets almost everything wrong but comes back for more.

It is both unbelievable and embarrassing at the same time.

What is happening in Iran

 Wow things are really hotting up in Iran.

• headcovers-have-always-been-political-in-iran-for-women-on-all-sides
  
• iran-the-hijab-protests-are-now-massive-but-a-revolution-will-need-the-military-to-change-sides
  
• personal-political-iran-protests-normal-life
  
• women-led-protests-in-iran-gather-momentum-but-will-they-be-enough-to-bring-about-change
  

I would add that the USA has not been very good at its relations with Iran.

It has a number of times ruined a 'liberal' President so a hardliner replaces him such as the present. The previous administration won in a landslide because the Iran electorate thought the Nuke deal would mean greater trade and more economic growth.

Trump broke that agreement, allowed the hardliners in Iran to say you can never trust the USA. Iran simply recommenced it nuclear program.

Imagine if Trump had never existed. Iranians would have much higher living standards, no nuclear program and an electorate that demanded higher living standards not wasted money on foreign 'adventures'.

Religious Freedom

 HERE is an article which goes into this subject in quite a bit of detail.

A few points.

1. Christian schools which teach and operate according to the bible are threatened by attempts to repeal protections offered to faith based schools
2. It appears most states and territories will not allow any religious body or school from making staff decisions that preserve their religious ethos and mission. In other words they could no longer insist paid staff either are Christians or model Christian beliefs.
3. This would undermine the right of parents to have their children brought up in surroundings that reflect their faith
4. It is unlawful in Victoria to give biblical counsel or even pray for someone struggling with unwanted sexual desires or gender dysphoria even if they ask and consent to it. Other states are following suit.
5. Health practitioners are forced to allow euthanasia even though their conscience does not allow them to proceed.
6. Secular judges will be allowed to make decisions in relation to ordination, employment worship etc.

I could also add we still do not know whether employers can sack people because of their faith. In this instance the outcome of the Folau case was highly unsatisfactory.

In this case and the Thorburn case people have conflated entry into heaven with playing a sport which is absurd. In both cases neither person talked about their sport. In Thorburn's case we do not even know if he agrees with the sermon!

Australia is becoming very secular and  intolerant

Read and weep

 A  Study  finds excessive deaths for registered republicans much much higher than for registered democrats.

This came about because these people swallowed the lie of that they had no need to get vaccinated.

Fox and co are murderers!

Around the Traps 7/10/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Tim Nelson on so-long-loy-yang-shutting-australias-dirtiest-coal-plant-a-decade-early-wont-jeopardise-our-electricity-supply
• Raina MacIntyre on if-you-think-scrapping-covid-isolation-periods-will-get-us-back-to-work-and-past-the-pandemic-think-again
• Ross Gittins on the-knowledge-economy-is-behind-soaring-price-of-land
• renew economy on stunning-week-of-early-coal-closures-opens-path-to-100-pct-renewables, stunning-week-of-early-coal-closures-opens-path-to-100-pct-renewables, when-the-ceiling-hits-the-floor-how-electricity-prices-are-turning-everything-upside-down, energy-windfall-tax-offers-much-better-economic-relief-than-petrol-excise-study-finds, coal-shortage-causes-shut-down-at-wa-collie-power-station, australias-climate-bill-is-the-beginning-of-the-journey-not-the-end, another-fail-as-network-companies-pocket-supernormal-profits-at-consumers-expense, coalition-nuclear-power-bill-dead-on-arrival-but-somehow-the-debate-lives-on, fracking-the-simple-test-of-whether-it-should-happen-or-not
• croaking cassandra on towards-this-weeks-ocr-review, once-an-export-and-import-powerhouse, where-will-the-ocr-be-in-10-years
• James Pittock on how-to-ensure-the-worlds-largest-pumped-hydro-dam-isnt-a-disaster-for-queenslands-environment
• Richard Kingsford on the-magnificent-lake-eyre-basin-is-threatened-by-831-oil-and-gas-wells-and-more-are-planned-is-that-what-australians-really-want
• Greg Barton on australia-is-well-placed-to-make-the-long-overdue-repatriation-of-islamic-state-women-and-children-work
• Rodger Shanahan on islamic-state-women-justice-complex-impasse
• Yee-Fui Ng on will-the-national-anti-corruption-commission-actually-stamp-out-corruption-in-government
• William Partlett on why-increasing-support-for-ukraine-is-critical-to-australias-security-as-a-middle-power
• Brendan Walker-Munro on optus-data-breach-regulatory-changes-announced-but-legislative-reform-still-needed
• Simon Orme on australian-consumers-are-paying-too-much-electricity-networks

Northern America

• Dylan Mathews on mancur-olson-rise-decline-nations-abundance-nimby
• Mark Stern on supreme-court-scotus-decisions-law-school-professors
• Liz Zhou on herschel-walker-georgia-senate-raphael-warnock
• Rachel Cohen on philadelphia-progressive-prosecutor-midterms-larry-krasner-impeachment-pennsylvania
• John Cassidy on trumps-threats-of-violence-are-too-dangerous-to-disregard
• Kruggers on is the era of low interest rates over Thanks Brad
• the conversable economist on how-much-of-the-gasoline-price-is-crude-oil
• Jonathan Bernstein on herschel-walker-shows-why-republicans-have-a-candidate-problem Thanks Brad
• Timothy Snyder on how-does-the-russo-ukrainian-war-end Thank you Stephen Kirchner
• Donald Moynihan on covid-deadlier-republicans-study

Europe

• John Authurs on uk-can-t-afford-to-look-as-ridiculous-as-truss-kwarteng-have-with-gilts-crisis thanks Brad
• Lana Haworth on ukraine-war-vladimir-putins-mobilisation-order-was-legal-but-will-russians-see-it-as-legitimate
• Martin Jones on ukraine-war-why-russians-fleeing-conscription-should-be-treated-as-refugees
• Jonathan Guyer on future-ukraine-russia-war
• Tim Harford on how-to-waste-a-couple-of-hundred-million-pounds
• coppolla comment on what-was-real-reason-for-bank-of-england-intervention
• Mainly Macro on the-budget-has-left-uk-economy-with-no-good-options
• Menzie Chinn on the-recent-pound-plunge-in-context-50-years-of-the-real-rate
• Mathew Sussex on is-this-the-beginning-of-the-end-for-vladimir-putin
• Jet Heer on meloni-putin-far-right-nato
• Kaushik Basu on entrenched-authoritarians-incarceration-game Thanks Brad
• Joseph Nye on what-caused-russia-ukraine-war Thanks Brad

Asia

• Tim Harcourt on a-sham-sentence-after-a-secret-trial-for-aung-san-suu-kyis-australian-economic-adviser
• Gabriela Bernal on hot-button-issue-north-korea-s-bold-new-nuclear-stance
• Shaddi Hamid on iran-mahsa-amini-protests-islam-ayatollah-ruhollah-khomeini
• Shadi Rouhshabaz on personal-political-iran-protests-normal-life
• John Cluver on how-we-would-know-when-china-is-preparing-to-invade-taiwan Thanks Brad

Wonk

• Jacob Soll on how-christianity-influenced-the-development-of-capitalism-in-medieval-europe Thanks Brad
• noahopinion on a-concrete-vision-of-the-liberal-democratic-future, time-for-a-little-global-financial, we-still-havent-solved-the-nuclear-age, authoritarians-are-not-governing-effectively

General

• Love Dalen and Anders Gotherstrom on nobel-prize-svante-paabos-ancient-dna-discoveries-offer-clues-as-to-what-makes-us-human
• Alison Hutton on one-of-the-worst-stadium-tragedies-in-history-an-expert-explains-what-led-to-the-soccer-stampede-in-indonesia
• Robert Young on nobel-prize-physicists-share-prize-for-insights-into-the-spooky-world-of-quantum-mechanics
• Mark Ford on an-age-of-prudence-t-s-eliot

Climate

• real climate on new-misguided-interpretations-of-the-greenhouse-effect-from-william-kininmonth
• noahopinion on i-come-bringing-good-news-about-hydrogen
• construction physics on why-did-we-wait-so-long-for-wind thanks Tyler

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• wow-this-classic-article-from-1955-on-betting-and-probability-has-a-really-high-math-to-content-ratio
  
• ecologists-push-for-more-reliable-research
  
• some-things-are-more-difficult-than-you-might-think-literary-interviewing-edition
  
• dow-36000-but-in-graph-form
  
• not-frequentist-enough
  
• what-nested-r-hat-teaches-us-about-the-classical-r-hat
  
• now-that-faculty-arent-coming-into-the-office-anymore-will-universities-ever-recover
  
• one-of-the-hardest-things-about-differential-privacy-could-also-be-seen-as-opportunity
  
• chess-cheating-how-to-detect-it-other-than-catching-someone-with-a-shoe-phone
  
• mira-magic-a-probabilistic-card-trick
  
• Kaiser Fung on critics-stories-and-ethics

Econometrics

• No Hesitations on the-latest-in-observation-driven-tvp-models

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• nuttin

Vox Wonk

• exposing-child-sunshine-first-six-months-life-reduces-their-risk-obesity
  
• catching-and-falling-behind-russian-economic-growth-1690s-1880s
  
• dynamic-disequilibrium-randomness
  
• potential-impact-gas-supply-disruptions-europe-update
  
• climate-and-debt
  
• gendered-references-and-career-success-economics-profession
  
• central-fiscal-capacity-tackle-stagflation
  
• tale-tier-3-cities-china
  
• making-eu-macroprudential-framework-fit-next-decade
  
• euro-area-government-bond-spreads-tale-different-ecb-policy-regimes
  
• policy-uncertainty-state-level
  
• free-riding-yankees-canada-and-panama-canal
  
• productivity-amenity-value-and-future-remote-work
  
• central-bank-communication-general-public-challenging-yet-worthwhile
  
• unequal-effects-labour-market-reallocation
  

Should we bring the women and children home from Syria

 A couple of informed people write on this.

• Greg Barton
• Rodger Shanahan

Other countries have brought home people without any of the problems some seem to foresee.

The RBA goes safe and steady

 The RBA yesrday raised rates 25 basis points. Clearly they are worried about going too quickly and too far in raising rates. My guess is they will raise another 25 points on Melbourne cup day and then take a rest and see what happens. The guess continues that the RBA will probably have to tighten again near the end of summer.

Monetary policy involves guesswork because of the lags involved. I get the feeling people do not need to reduce spending yet. It is because of this I would not be surprised if the RBA has to go a little too far in raising rates and then when the pips squeak have to reduce them even the the end of next year.

We shall see.

Climate and Debt

 A nice column on a book from what I call vox wonk.

A short but interesting read

Is scrapping covid isolation a good thing

 A bunch of qualified people argue we are scrapping the covid isolation rule prematurely.