Taiwan and Hong Kong

 The Chinese leadership is Trumpian in their stupidity. Noah Smith has written about this extensively but a few examples.

The 'wolf warrior' diplomacy has failed badly. morons like trump might think might is right is a successful stagy but few others do. It had led more countries to seek help from China than embracing them.  The belt and road imitative is not seen as something to boost a country's economy but as a way for the Chinese to own assets that cannot be paid for anymore.

The Chinese leadership are now threatening Taiwan. 

Firstly this would be very costly in economic terms to China. It is enmeshed in the world economy much more than Russia. Sanctions would hurt them a lot more. It has a large and growing middle class ( which is why companies have been trying to get into China.) What happens when their standard of living drastically falls?

Secondly it is very hard to invade a country and very costly in resources and people. The Taiwanese do not want to be part of China. They would fight fiercely to protect their freedom. It would be Ukraine writ large.

Thirdly when China makes noises about 'protecting' Taiwan and one country two systems people wil merely look at Hong Kong. China lied and broke their word. they then arrested and jailed people on dubious charges.

The major problem China has is they have woeful leadership and do not realise it. Personally the Chinese will have to concentrate on their economic troubles rather than anything else.