Wednesday 20 May 2020

Will we have a depression but not a recession

A depression is defined by most but not all as a drop in output of 10% or more. A recession is defined by some but not all ( including me) as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

It appears at this stage the march quarter may be positive, just. We cannot be too certain as yet because there is more partial data to come in.

The June quarter will be bad, Very bad. the September quarter will be affected by whether the government cuts Job Keeper and Job Seeker and by how much.

Thus it is possible Australia , like a few other countries, might be in the unique situation of being in a depression but not a recession.

how will consumers, producers etc react.

I have no idea

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