Monday 17 December 2018

MYEFO

The MYEFO was released yesterday.
I don't disagree with any a lot

A few comments. 

This Government came into Office and promptly put spending at levels not seen since the GFC. The ALP had succeeded in lowering spending after the GFC troubles. Keeping spending at high levels for no good reasons and then boasting about spending constraint seems quite catallaxian.

The improvement has all come from cyclical improvement in the budget. There have been few structural improvements.
Indeed they have mapped out tax cuts which they have not yet announced. This worsens the structural budget. As does the new spending measures.
We do not yet have the ALP policy measures but we do know they have structural measures to offset their spending measures.

A final note on the structural budget. Prior to the GFC the Irish budget documents had their structural budget deficit at 0.5% of GDP or a balanced budget. Once hit by the GFC this deficit rose quite significant. A rising tide increases the structural deficit. We saw this here as well!

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