TV Shows I am watching

To give it its due 72 in Sydney has a lot of old but great shows on which I tape to the hard drive.

Prime Suspect
I never saw this when it first came out. Jane Tennant is the ambitious but talented detective gradually climbing up to break the glass ceiling. wonderfully written and well acted. Sensational series but has one defect.
Tenant is quite unattractive both physically as well as her personality. yet in each season she is either in a relationship or sleeping around. Absurd. what's worse she smokes!

A Touch of Frost
We follow Inspector Frost as he solves murders.,Combines humour, irreverence and drama very well. Very much dated but still enjoyable to watch Frost does make mistakes showing he is human and fesses up.

Inspector Morse
The lead character studied at Oxford but did not finish his degree. Loves opera, classical music and drinking. I find his down to earth partner Lewis more enjoyable. I just do not rate John Thaw as an actor.Morse has terrible clothing sense as well!

Lewis
Lewis was so popular as a character they made a series on him. His partner also studied at Oxford but  it was theology. He is like Morse and a poor social mixer.Highly enjoyable. I like the female boss as well who initially thinks Lewis is past his use by date but warms to him as she realises how good he is.

Murdoch Mysteries
this is a Canadian series based on a detective in the last 19th century. Enjoyable. The Inspector
( Thomas Craig) steals most of the scenes and detective Murdoch is too good and intelligent to be true but still enjoyable.

New Blood
This is a fantastic new series on the ABC. One an Iranian struggling to become a detective the other polish in the Serious Fraud office. It is on tonight ans i am looking forward to it.

The Coroner
We follow a coroner as she investigates people who have been found killed. Her key police partner is an ex-boyfriend. how a good sort does not have a boy friend although her daughter  may prove problematic. This is enjoyable but not too complicated.

Wallander
This starts again on the ABC on Sunday night. Kenneth Branagh is magnificent as Wallander a Swedish policeman. A young Tom Hiddleston is impressive. It is a dark series however id you stay there it is worth it.

Castle
This once great series has ended and it wasn't pretty. The last two seasons were complete shite. more on this later

Monetary policy is NOT working

The RBA cut the cash rate yesterday to 1.5% , a record low.

If interest rates are at record lows the economy is not in good shape and quite obviously not in good shape.
What can the government do?

Well if the economy needs a kick and bond yields are very low then it is a no brainer. Invest in infrastructure.
There are plenty of projects that have been examined that would facilitate economic growth. I can think of three off the top of my head. complete the dual carriage way of the pacific highway.
Do the same for the great Western Highway
Ensure there is a rail line from Carlingford to Parramatta thus having a train line from Parramatta to Chatswood.

It is also obvious that only a complete moron ( hello Catallaxy) would be attempting fiscal consolidation at present. It would be counter -productive. Secular stagnation anyone.

So do it and do it now.

The Kouk weighs in sensibly

David Beckworth's musings

David Beckworth has a very interesting blog. Of late he has had musings with a number of economists whom are well known in the blogosphere.
If you are interested in economics like I they are all gold ( Olympic pun intended).

Malcolm Turnbull looking poor

It was not a great week for Malcolm Turnbull.
He has never had a reputation for political judgement but it certainly came home in spades last week.

first we had the mean and incredibly small minded decision of not to nominate Kevin Rudd to the Secretary General 's job of the UN. If a former successful; Prime minister and foreign diplomat cannot be nominated then no-one can. Peter Nadin has it right . 

Then we have Turnbull appointing the former Chief Justice of the northern Territory to head the Royal Commission. It should not have gone to an insider so to speak but to someone outside the Territory. Also Shorten's  thoughts of an aboriginal person on the RC was worthy of consideration.

In the end I agree with John Quiggin.for-his-own-self-respect-turnbull-should-quit


Update:
Martin has resigned being the Royal Commissioner. oh dear.
He has shown more class and integrity than Heydon ever did.

Further Update:
Mick Gooda is hopelessly compromised on this nor does he possess the intellectual disposition to be a co-chair of a Royal Commission. It was a woeful decision to appoint him, Margaret White is going to do a hellva lot of heavy lifting on this.

Around the Traps 29/7/16

It is time for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Hugh Saddler on south-australias-electricity-price-woes-are-more-due-to-gas-than-wind
• Rachel Ong and Gavin Wood on lets-talk-about-the-family-home-and-its-exemption-from-the-pension-means-test
• Stephen Duckett on your-postcode-shouldnt-determine-your-health-or-whether-youre-admitted-to-hospital
• Helen Hodgson on wealth-inequality-shows-superannuation-changes-are-overdue
• Mathew Raj on youll-need-my-fingerprint-are-police-allowed-to-search-your-phone
• Croaking Cassandra on labour-on-new-zealands-economy , a-good-feature-of-our-tax-system , kudos-to-the-greens , reviewing-government-assistance-to-business
• The Pollbludger on pollster-performance-review
• Skepticlawyer on a-rebuke-to-crony-unionism
• Diane Kraal on australia-is-missing-out-on-tax-revenue-from-gas-projects
• Greg Jericho on cutting-welfare-means-hitting-those-who-are-already-among-the-poorest
• Tamara Tillich on will-post-sentence-detention-of-convicted-terrorists-make-australia-any-safer
• John Rice and Ralph Martin on can-a-corpulent-woolies-discard-its-history-and-fight-off-aldi
• Gail Pearson on more-scrutiny-needed-on-commissions-paid-to-life-insurance-advisers
• various on is-the-tropical-indian-ocean-to-blame-for-southern-australias-wet-winter
• John Quiggin on we-dont-need-another-royal-commission , for-his-own-self-respect-turnbull-should-quit
• Antony Green on allocating-new-senators-to-long-and-short-terms-and-next-election-timing
• The Kouk on why-is-australia-s-inflation-rate-so-stunningly-low
• Marrk McGovern on crippling-rural-debt-looms-as-biggest-threat-to-our-beef-producers
• Alan Oxley on consumers-lose-out-to-australias-protectionist-anti-dumping-laws
• Peter Nadin on Rudd-as-SG-UN-Security-Council-should-have-decided-not-Turnbull

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on tracking-us-gdp-ex-government , never-were-truer-words-said , anemic-economic-growth
• Danny Yagan on is the great recession really over Thanks Brad
• Nrayana Kocherlakota on the-fed-has-some-explaining-to-do  Thanks Mark
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-trump-jr-s-pants-on-fire-allegation-of-manipulated-jobs-numbers
• Calculated Risk on a-few-comments-on-june-new-home-sales , real-prices-and-price-to-rent-ratio-in-may
• Mike Kimel on police-killings-gender-and-race
• Timothy Taylor on high-skilled-immigration
• Peter Orszag on saving-money-on-cardiac-care Thanks Brad
• Don Moore on Trump says he is a great negotiator but the evidence says otherwise
• Carola Binder on /guest-post-by-alex-rodrigue-fed-and-lehmans
• Skepticlawyer on barry-goldwater-is-not-responsible-for-the-donald
• John Robertson on men-at-work-are-we-seeing-a-turnaround-in-male-labor-force-participation
• Croaking Cassandra on an-economist-for-president

Europe

• Menzie Chinn on uk-yield-curve-flattening-nothing-to-do-with-brexit
• Tony Yates on resetting-the-fiscal-framework-in-the-uk
• Coppolla comment on slovenia-and-banks
• Chris Dillow on brexit-a-blow-to-the-low-paid , the-strange-death-of-the-business-vote
• Simon Wren-Lewis on labour-times-change
• David Tittensor on turkey-coup-why-have-teachers-and-academics-been-targeted
• Kevin O'Rourke on 1916 Ireland Thanks Mark
• Tim Harford on metropolitan-myths-that-led-to-brexit
• Seamus Coffey on that-26-growth-rate-two-weeks-on

Asia

• Euan Graham on Black-Swan-2020-Chinas-NEO-that-Goes-Geo
• Zubaidah Hazeer on Three-reasons-why-Malaysias-Najib-isnt-going-anywhere
• Brad Setser on fiscal-stimulus-korean-style  ,just-how-big-is-chinas-external-surplus-measurement-matters , chinas-reported-tourism-deficit-got-big-fastThanks Mark
• Lauren Williams on Syrians-between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place-on-Turkey-coup
• Susanne Schmeidel on Daeshs-first-big-stand-in-Kabul
• Tyler Cowen on seeing-china-through-its-economic-history Thanks Mark 
• Abhijnan Raj on Geoeconomics-and-geopolitics-Indias-tightrope

Wonk

• Nick Rowe on simple-basic-money-for-finance-people , finite-horizon-models-of-inflation-as-the-horizon-goes-to-infinity
• Edward Lambert on exp-decay-inflation
• Barry Eichengreen on protectionism-geopolitical-problems Thanks Brad
• Stephen Grenville on Globalisation-and-income-distribution
• Stephen Terry on the macro impact of short termism Thanks Brad
• Noah Smith on economists-give-up-on-milton-friedman-s-biggest-idea , answering-the-hardest-question-in-economics
• Frances Woolley on scarce-versus-abundant-tp-equilibria
• Tony Yates on the-perceived-grievance-wrong-headed-sop-vortex
• Timothy Taylor on international-trade-as-scapegoat , adam-smith-on-human-capacity-for-self-deceit
• Chris Dillow on how-true
• Paul Romer on abstraction-vs-radical-specificity Thanks Mark
• Rick McGahey on why-does-economics-reject-new-thinking Thanks Mark

General

• Russell Frank on the-one-roger-ailes-hire-that-changed-american-politics-forever
• Rachel Grieve and Emily Lowe-Calverly on the-power-of-rewards-and-why-we-seek-them-out
• Paul Fritjers on yes-minister-hilarious-truthful-too-good-to-be-true
• Anthony Macris on reading-french-literature-in-a-time-of-terror
• Ingrid Kvangraven on hy-isnt-the-world-banks-choice-of-chief-economist-more-controversial Thanks Mark
• Brian McNair on when-terror-goes-viral-its-up-to-us-to-prevent-chaos
• Mamiza Haq on is-islamic-banking-more-risky-compared-to-conventional-banking
• Roger Shanahan on Same-horse-different-jihadi-JAN-rebrands
• Sam Roggeveen on Why-do-terrorists-do-it

Climate

• Hotwhopper on christopher-monckton-and-fraud-fact , explaining-different-results-for-climate-sensitivity-and-the-low-bias
• David Stern on the-ekc-in-nutshell Thanks Mark
• Micheal Greenstone on how-markets-can-help-us-adapt-to-climate-change
• various on land-carbon-storage-swelled-in-the-little-ice-age-which-bodes-ill-for-the-future
• and Then Theres Physics on full-depth-ohc
• does-benadryl-make-you-senile-challenges-in-research-communication
• Greg Jericho on i-spend-my-time-writing-about-the-economy-but-the-climate-data-hits-me-right-in-the-gut
• Arctic sea ice blog on 2016-sipn-sea-ice-outlook-july-report

Andrew Gelman ( ie mostly Stats)

• killer-o
• Researchers and p values
• what makes a  mathematical formula beautiful
• fish cannot carry p values
• does-benadryl-make-you-senile-challenges-in-research-communication
• largest title ever in internet
• Kaiser Fung on apple-watch-users-overwhelmingly-satisfied-says-a-survey-of-satisfied-users

Genial Dave Giles ( ie econometrics)

• /the-forecasting-performance-of-models
• No Hesitations on the-action-is-in-wide-andor-tall-data , an-important-example-of-simultaneously-wide-and-dense-data

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• various on health-check-what-your-pee-and-poo-colour-says-about-your-health
• Willain Nordhaus on why-economic-growth-will-fall Thankjs Mark

Vox wonk

• labour-market-recovery-great-recession
• failed-states-and-paradox-civilisation
• field-study-homogamy-evidence-eu
• what-s-ahead-wto-looking-around-corner-and-beyond
• insurance-sector-and-systemic-risk
• impacts-over-time-smoke-free-air-ordinances-texas
• fixing-saving-problem-latin-america-and-caribbean
• single-supervisory-mechanism-and-multinational-banks

The ALP is in the box seat

The ALP is looking good for the next election.
The reasons are myriad
Shorten is now seen as a credible leader.
Turnbull is still seen as being led by conservative forces and not being himself.
The conservative forces want to get rid of Turnbull with the major problem being no credible alternative.
The ALP has had an infusion of talent which might put under performing shadow ministers under pressure to perform.
The government has no program of policies to deliver
Medicare will be looked at with great scrutiny.
The big plus to the government is now the ALP can smell government they are morel likely to support budget repair measures providing they are fair. Thus the government will enact ALP policy in essence.

As Harold McMillan once said events change things. In 1998 we could have said the same thing but along came Tampa and Howard rode that to victory.
the question is could Turnbull rise such an event to power again and is the current ALP as over-confident of victory now as then.

We shall see

Michele Obama wows them

Just when Sanders delegates wanted to be Corbyistas ( although it must be noted most people who voted for Sanders will vote for Clinton and they have changed earlier than Clinton supporters did for Obama 8 years ago. ) along comes Michele Obama who in only 15 minutes gave a magnificent speech. It was the stirring oratory of her husband  but it didn't have to be.
She simply told everyone what was at stake, how to behave and how to campaign.

She is a very impressive woman..

Don't believe me. Then see for yourself courtesy of Brad De Long