Trump and Kim meet

Well they both have met.
We know for example Trump gets on with the dictator better than the elected leader of Canada, Says a lot really.
We again find out Trump is hopeless with alliances. He knows the costs of everything but the value of nothing.
He again does something which he does not tell South Korea about.

I tend to agree with Benjamin Habib. as Walter Mondale might say wheres the beef? We might have gotten a definition of what denuclearisation means!

added bonus Daniel Flitton

I forgot two things.  Why the 1994 deal failed.

Why would the most stringent inspections succeed in North Korea when they were clearly succeeding in Iran but Trump broke the deal.

The Socceroos and Russia

I must be honest. I am not optimistic about our game with France on Saturday night.

First the good news.
History shows France is a slow starter, If you must play them then the first game is the best.
It also shows south American teams do not play well in Europe.
We also know Denmark have injury problems in their defence and the replacements are slow ( which is why McClaren is still in the squad.

Now for realism.
We have played four games under 'Aussie' Bert. We have only played well once.
both Milligan and Risdon look out of their depth in their respective positions.
Abbout is fast, fit and will ling upfront but lacks touch.
Mooy is not giving any killer passes to Leckie or anyone else.
It appears Milo is on the outer and he was a tower of strength against Honduras. He never lost a tackle or header. He was inspiring.
Rogic and Mooy appear not to be able to play together, They have defensive limitations.

My thoughts.

• Move Rogic to Striker. He does have one hellva strike on him 
• Move Milo to centreback back
• Pick Arzani ahead of Kruse. Kruse has not been the same player since he was badly injured.
• Pray!!!

I always live in hope however

Around the Traps 8/6/18

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on a-decade-of-real-house-prices, sir-william-and-the-rockstar-economy, another-orr-interview, dont-just-avoid-the-politically-awkward-issues, the-government-consults-on-slashing-productivity-growth, electioneering-1954-style
• Sharon Brennan-Olsen on why-hip-fractures-in-the-elderly-are-often-a-death-sentence
• Tony Walker on australia-needs-to-reset-the-relationship-with-china-and-stay-cool
• Robert McLaughlan on new-zealands-productivity-commission-charts-course-to-low-emission-future
• Ben Phillips and Mathew Gray on the-coalitions-income-tax-cuts-will-help-the-rich-more-but-in-a-decade-everyone-pays-more-anyway
• Ross Gittins on turnbull-changes-tune-for-lower-taxes-election, how-we-could-revive-faith-in-democracy , sorry-scott-its-not-clear-economy-now-has-liftoff
• Nick Gruen onthe-unbearable-thinness-of-modern-politics
• Tomas Fitzgerald on how-changes-to-uk-law-may-provide-more-dual-citizenship-drama
• Giles Parkinson on south-australia-rides-renewables-boom-to-become-electricity-exporter
• Peter Whiteford on is-australias-tax-and-welfare-system-too-progressive Thanks Steve from Brisbane
• The Kouk on australia-s-opponents-of-the-minimum-wage-increase-ignore-this-truth-higher-pay-means-more-people-working, why-concern-is-mounting-for-australia-s-economic-outlook
• Greg Jericho on growth-with-a-grain-of-salt-its-the-same-old-story-as-households-miss-out
• Don Driscoll et al on passing-the-brumby-bill-is-a-backward-step-for-environmental-protection-in-australia
• Chris Salisbury on twenty-years-on-one-nation-is-still-chaotic-controversial-and-influential
• Australian Parliamentary Library on The-Labour-Force-Surve
• Andrew King et al onis-australias-current-drought-caused-by-climate-change-its-complicated

Northern America

• newdeal democrat on may-jobs-report-excellent-news-on-unemployment-underemployment-and-wages
• calculated risk on public-and-private-sector-payroll-jobs-during-presidential-terms
• David Mislin on why-the-supreme-courts-gay-wedding-cake-ruling-wont-resolve-religious-freedom-issues
• Andrew Prokop on trump-mueller-news-pardon-letter-russia-tweets
• Rebecca Roiphe on can-the-rule-of-law-survive-trump
• the conversable economist on snapshots-of-salubrious-us-labor-market
• Tom Chodor on tariffs-us-rebuffed
• Zack Beauchamp on trump-spygate-fox-twitter
• Joseph Gagnon on realtime-economic-issues-watch/still-no-inflation-puzzle  Thanks Mark
• Jason Furman and Peter Orszag on slower-productivity-and-higher-inequality-are-they-related Thanks Mark
• Larry Summers on donald-trumps-trade-policy-violates-every-rule-of-strategy Thanks Mark
• Tim Duy on the-fed-s-key-interest-rate-is-getting-close-to-neutral, fed-could-get-more-aggressive Thanks Mark
• Jodi Beggs on an-update-on-ben-bernankes-helicopter Thanks Mark
• Kruggers on conservative-free-speech Thanks Mark
• Anna Stanbury and Larry Summers on productivity-and-pay-link-broken Thanks Markl
• David Wessell onrethinking-the-feds-2-percent-inflation-target

Europe

• Mainly Macro on a-euro-tragedy, idee-fixe
• the conversable economist on sweden-heads-toward-cash-free-economy
• stumbling and mumbling on why-the-mpc-needs-experts
• Cecchetti and Scheonholtz on italeave-mother-of-all-financial-crises Thanks Mark

Asia

• Uri Friedman on trump-and-kim-will-talk-after-allbut-about-what
• Kim Ghatton on saudi-arabia-nationalism-driving-ban-salman
• Adam Ni on despite-strong-words-the-us-has-few-options-left-to-reverse-chinas-gains-in-the-south-china-sea
• Robert E Kelly on north-korea-beyond-all-or-nothing-ultimatum
• Charlie Lyon Jones and Merriden Varrall on name-shame-china-trouble-taiwan
• Brad Setser on how-durable-chinas-rebalancing Thanks Mark

Wonk

• Tim Harford on cheap-innovations-are-often-better-than-magical-ones
• Roger Farmer on taming-the-lion, lend-me-your-ears-friedman-and-the-role-of-financial-policy
• Stephen Grenville on when-is-monetary-policy-neutral
• Tyler Cowen on blockchains-opportunity-commons
• the conversable economist on the-shifting-connections-from-education-to-job-skills , whats-value-of-qaly
• Adam Triggs on the-worlds-economic-crisis-fighting-mechanisms-are-dangerously-inadequate
• Uneasy Money on keynes-and-the-fisher-equation
• Kenneth Rogoff on will-emerging-markets-trigger-global-debt-crisis Thanks Mark
• Promarket on monopoly-looks-like-italian-tobacco-sector-late-19th-century  Thanks Mark
• Brad Setser on trade-deals-or-macroeconomic-shocks Thanks Mark
• Bank Underground on should-peer-to-peer-lenders-exist-in-theory Thanks Mark
• Nick Gruen on central-banking-for-all-meanwhile-in-the-wider-world

General

• the conversable economist on the-not-so-triumphant-return-of-the-marshmellow-yest
• Frances Woolley on a-gnomic-theory-of-higher-education
• Kate Burridge and Catherine McBride on haitch-or-aitch-how-a-humble-letter-was-held-hostage-by-historical-haughtiness

Climate

• David Appell on when-global-warming-touches-home
• Open Mind on sea-level-rise-denial-by-bullshit
• Moyhu on may-ncepncar-global-surface-anomaly-down-0.09-from-april
• and Then Theres Physics on the-scicomm-merry-go-round ,science-and-skepticism ,airtime-for-policy-experts
• Peter Sinclair on could-climate-change-create-more-powerful-hurricanes
• David Roberts on climate-change-global-warming-models-risks

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• link-science-hype-not-always
• weakness-bayesian-data-analysis-book-dont-lot-examples-informative-priors
• against-screening
• nooooooooooooooooo-dentists-named-dennis-still-appearing
• peeriodicals-new-system-virtual-journals
• ambiguities-supposed-non-replication-ego-depletion
• comments-limitations-bayesian-leave-one-cross-validation-model-selection
• forking-paths-come-choices-data-processing-also-choices-analysis
• average-predictive-comparisons-else-equal-fallacy
• John Cook on central-limit-theorem-and-runge
• human-life-unlimited-short
• choose-data-visualization-best-serves-audience
• oxycontin-purdue-pharma-sacker-family-fda
• Simply Statistics on trustworthy-data-analysis
• Aki Vahtari on comments-on-limitations-of-bayesian-leave-one-out-cross-validation-for-model-selection
• Xian on maximal-spacing-around-order-statistics

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• suggested-reading-for-june
• the-series-of-unsurprising-results-in-economics-(sure)
• freakometrics on classification from stratch  classification 5/8 classification 7/8
• Marc Bellamare on causality and copenhagen course
• No Hesitations on machines-learning-finance

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on stochastically-best-book-read-country
• Brad De Long on talk-four-books-to-help-you-understand-president-donald-trump
• Three toed sloth on books-to-read-while-the-algae-grow-in-your-fur

Vox wonk

• social-media-sentiment-and-public-opinions
• cultural-alignment-can-make-bedfellows-out-autocracy-and-literacy
• wellbeing-inequality-retrospect
• wage-premium-exporting-plants-japan
• effect-population-ageing-pensions
• insurers-asset-managers-and-systemic-risk
• ethnic-networks-and-immigrants-employment-and-human-capital-decisions
• turnaround-portuguese-economy
• concentration-us-labour-markets
• retirement-consumption-puzzle
• universal-childcare-family-background-and-school-readiness
• inflation-forecasting-emerging-market-economies
• role-elites-development-denmark
• imperfect-substitution-and-development-accounting

A few comments on Australian politics

By-elections
We had recently Reach-Tel polls both nationally and on two by-election seats.
A few things to note. polls on by-elections are quite unreliable. As a resident of Bennelong I know this only too well.
We can add to that by asking why the two seat polls are so different to the national poll particularly since both are marginal seats.

Barnaby
I do wish Joyce would leave politics and get a job with Hancock. He is insufferably embarrassing these days. For  such a 'wonderful' retail politician and she being a PR guru they both stuff up every time when they front cameras or give an interview.

One Nation

I talked before about Pauline Hanson. doesn't she look old and haggard these days!  I am afraid implosion will always occur in One Nation as it is essentially a cult built on Hanson. When people are elected and realise she is not very smart ( euphemism) and has a Svengali behind her there is always a dispute. What makes this worse is that she demands loyalty and gives none herself.

South Australia a net electricity exporter?

Surely this cannot be true. south Australia is now an electricity exporter.

Yep it is even though plenty of 'conservative' commentators said blackouts would be a way of life given how much renewables is a large part of electricity generation in south Australia.  The Tesla battery has a competitive advantage when it comes to dispatchable power.

No wonder AGL is planning on a battery at their Liddel site when the power station is no more.

Sydney Radio

I thought I would get away from the serious today.

I will concentrate on AM radio as the only FM radio I listened to ABCFM and whatever 102.5 is calling itself. ( it has a great blues program from 8 p.m. on Monday nights).

ABC Radio  National is a jewel. It is also a bit of a curates egg. I have neither the time nor the inclination to investigate all the programs they have but a few I do like are:

• Background briefing. It it is on a subject that interests you it is essential listening. I still remember one done on dentistry and Multi-national corporations. My demist fully supported its investigations.
• Geraldine Dooge and her morning program on Saturday. If I am awake I always listen to it.
• Tom Switzer's between the lines. He has personality and interesting guests
• Phiilp Adams late night live. Loads of personality , a great radio voice and fascinating guests usually talking about their book articles.
• Breakfast would be essential listening if Hamish McDonald took the program over from Fran Kelly.

ABC News Radio is very good when parliament was not on. News from around the world from various radio organisations. Hate Aussie rules on the weekends though.

ABC Local radio ( which is what they call 702 these days) is good for the current affairs programs when on. AM on in the morning , PM in the evening and the world at noon at midday. ( strange about all those programs.)

2GB is the highest rating station. It is also the most biased station. Tony Abbott, Peter Dutton are regulars who 'interviewed' on the station. Fake news like a lack of electricity following Liddell being closed own is regularly talked about.  Malcolm Turnbull is not liked but tony Abbott is. some of the 'personalities' have do have loads of personality so you can understand why they are successful.Ray Hadley or Ben Fordham come to mind. however Alan Jones does not . He is simply a grumpy old man who whinges a lot and he has no personalty. ( My own Alan Jones story will come along at some stage. He sounds like the insecure, vindictive person he is yet he is popular. why?

2UE is now simply a sports station after its  unsuccessful foray into lifestyle. most of its presenters are deadset boring. ( is that a good sporting sentence). I don't want to hear about ice hockey or US basketball or even AFL .Its superstar is Billy McGee. Loads of personality, tons of enthusiasm for any sport and always talks as he understands all facets of the sport he is taking about,, I know him from the A-League show on 2GB and he is a breath of fresh air. He comes on about 8.15-30 at night to talk about up to date sport.  He talks as though he is a lot younger than he actually is.
One boring thing is on saturday and sunday night they replay press conferences.

2KY is simply if you are a loser who punts a lot and thus loses money. Only in Australia.

It can get very boring at night on the weekends with all station ( except radio national and 2 KY) broadcasting AFL or NRL games.

If you like Statistics ( and econometrics)

Over at the excellent Econbrowser Menzie Chinn put up this post estimates-of-excess-fatalities-in-puerto-rico-post-maria and then this post excess-deaths-inferred-from-puerto-rican-administrative-data and finally this post please-do-not-comment-on-this-post-unless-you-understand-the-following-terms. Sorry this is the last post garbage-and-non-garbage-estimates-puerto-rico-edition

I  told them all TWICE to read Andrew Gelman's post which was data-code-study-puerto-rico-deaths.

All useful posts if you merely studied statistics at Uni when doing Economics like me.

Please note the comments . They are quite good at Andrew's blog. Not so at Menzies's.

I should add it highlights the difference between statistics which is Andrew's great strength and econometrics which is Menzies's