Let us look at three things that concern Donald Trump and speculate about his mental health.
First there is EZRA KLEIN on Trump's interview with the New York Times.
Klein asks whether he is a liar or delusional. What Klein does not do is to relate what Trump says to his age. He is quite old for a politician particularly for one so inexperienced in politics. For those of us who have watched our parents descend from their lofty heights as parents to at times doddering people needing our help just to do basic things it would seem Trump's behaviour is very much of an aging man who is gradually losing his faculties. Remember Ronald Reagan had many anecdotes he thought was about real life when in fact it was from a movie he starred in.
Second there is Jennifer Williams on examining Trump and Foreign Affairs.
What she misses IMHO is two aspects about Trump that stands out like a shag on a rock.
He is socially awkward. This is very unusual for a man as old as Trump.At his age he should know how to behave in public. Also he is almost obsessively self centered.
Notice how some of this this relates to aspects of Aspergers.
Lastly let us examine how Trump believes cold weather means there is no global warming.Peter Sinclair almost anticipating this blows this argument apart. It is people not understanding the difference between weather and climate.Only people of an unsound mind would fall for such a facile diagnosis. ( Notice how there is no similar statement when we have uncommonly hot weather.)
What we have is a man in clear mental decline. We do know he clearly was not like this 10 or 20 years ago.Indeed what does seem to rile him the most is when people criticise him for being stupid.
He clearly understood how to use the legal system to boost his business interests.
There are plenty of anecdotes about Trump which shows him socially awkward some time ago.
I wouldn't be surprised if the reason he doubles down all the time is to ensure people do not start talking about how many times Trump has a 'seniors moment'.
I am highlighting this because this is a recurring pattern. I fully expect this year and next to be of increasing articles about Trump's mental health.
Sunday, 31 December 2017
Thursday, 28 December 2017
Around the Traps 29/12/17 New Years Edition
It is time for Around the Traps again. Smallish given the season!
Andrew Gelman obviously has not taken any time off over Christmas!
Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)
Andrew Gelman obviously has not taken any time off over Christmas!
Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
- Ross Gittins on how-trumps-tax-cuts-will-affect-Australia , why-going-to-park-is-better-than-going-to-the-beach , kudos-to-professor-andrew-gelman
- Kevin Bonham on queensland-2017-final-results-and-polling-accuracy
- John Quiggin on more-public-holidays-for-a-sustainable-society
- Andrew King on 2017-the-year-in-extreme-weather
- Caroline Freud on united-states-wins-trade-agreements Thanks Brad
- Zack Beauchamp on andrew-mccabe-trump-fbi-mueller-republicans
- Harry Enten on the-democrats-wave-could-turn-into-a-flood
- Kruggers on trickle-down-not-now-and-not-for-a-while-at-best-wonkish , republicans-taxes-corruption , corporate-tax-cuts-its-only-about-the-wedge-wonkishThanks Mark
- Promarket on regulation-subsidizes-big-finance Thanks Mark
- Larry Summers on recession-or-financial-crisis-political-fallout Thanks Mark
- Jason Furman on economic-policy-populist-politics
- Tim Duy on is-the-fed-finishing-2017-on-a-dovish-note Thanks Mark
- Maggie Kourth-Baker on can-trumps-pick-to-lead-the-weather-service-really-be-independent-of-his-family-business
- Calculated Risk on real-house-prices-and-price-to-rent-ratio-in-october ,ten-economic-questions-for-2018
- Noah Smith on how-affordable-urban-housing-stays-affordable , rent-for-the-poor-really-is-too-high
- Eduardo Porter on tax-cuts-incomes Thanks Mark
- Regulatory Review on tax-overhaul-retreat-democracy Thanks Mark
- Jennifer Williams on trump-2017-foreign-policy-russia-twitter
- Menzie Chinn on california-in-recession
- Tim Duy on 5-questions-for-the-fed-in-2018 Ehanks Mark
- Ezra Klein on trump-interview-new-york-times
- Barkley Rosser on catalonia-imitates-us-dysfunctional-election , the-poland-peoblem
- The conversable economist on india-headed-toward-most-populous-country
- Bal Karma on when-police-try-and-arrest-prime-minister
- Peter Robertson on chinas-economic-power-is-actually-a-lot-smaller-than-you-think
- Timothy Keller on can-evangelicalism-survive-donald-trump-and-roy-moore
- Raghuram Rajun on central-banks-unvoncentional-monetary-policies Thanks Mark
- Angus Deaton on anatomy-of-inequality Thanks Mark
- Noah Smith on economists-lose-credibility-when-they-re-too-certain
- FRB on Understanding the Government spending multiplier Thanks Mark
- The conversable economist on enviromental-costs-of-christmas-trees , comfort-afflicted-and-afflict-the-comfortable
- Daniel Flitton on favourites-2017-my-doomed-colleagues
- Sam Roggeveen on best-interpreter-2017-our-top-10
- Tim Harford on economicky-words-are-just-plain-icky
- Tim Harcourt on how-and-why-economics-is-taking-over-sports
- Joe Burton on the-us-election-hack-fake-news-data-theft-the-cyber-security-lessons-from-2017
- Macro Musings on christmas-economics-2017
- Robert Waldmann on botcoin
- Economic Principals on when necessity displaces desire Thanks Mark
- Macro mania on fedcoin-and-blockchain
- Nick Rowe on dont-even-try-to-normalise-interest-rates
- Marginal Revolution on not-gdp-equal
- David Glasner on does-economic-theory-entail-or-support-free-market-ideology
- Jen Kirby on apple-slow-iphone-batteries
- the conversable economist on charles-dickens-on-seeing-poor , charles-dickens-on-management-vs-labor
- Lorenzo on vampire-diaries-versus-true-blood
- Lord Keynes on myths-about-hunter-gatherers
- David Appell on why-nikolov-and-zellers-pressure-claim-violates-basic-physics
- Bart Verheggen on how-blogs-convey-and-distort-scientific-information-about-polar-bears-and-arctic-sea-ice
- and then Theres Physics on galactic-cosmic-rays, political-activism
- John Quiggin on a-good-year-for-the-global-climate
- Real Climate on what-did-nasa-know-and-when-did-they-know-it
- Are Jokimaki on analysis_of_svensmark_reference_list
- Peter Sinclair on its-cold-so-no-global-warming-part-568
- David Kirkley on From-eMail-Bag-Carbon-Isotopes-Part-2
- 19-things-learned-2016-election-2
- setting-prior-distribution-experimental-analysis
- cant-keep-flood-gobbledygook
- walk-crooked-miie
- its-spam-tastic
- failure-null-hypothesis-significance-testing-studying-incremental-changes
- id-say-robust-standard-errors-like-holy-roman-empire-except-think-theyre-error
- stupid-ass-statisticians-dont-know-goddam-confidence-interval
- handling-multiplicity-neuroimaging-bayesian-lenses-hierarchical-modeling
- forking-paths-plus-lack-theory-no-reason-believe
- Statschat on champagne-for-your-brain
- John Mount on kudos-to-professor-andrew-gelman
Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)
- gdp-falling-short
- Brad De Long on three-books-for-2017
- Ezra Klein on best-books-list-2017
- coco-issuance-and-bank-fragility
- evidence-peer-review-women-are-held-higher-standards
- market-reforms-give-anticorruption-reforms-more-traction
- consequences-increased-media-competition
- individualism-and-opposition-redistribution-us
- social-origins-and-iq-inventors
- inner-workings-board
- how-exposure-innovation-influences-who-becomes-inventor
Wednesday, 27 December 2017
Trump's worst act?
Donald Trump is easily the worst US President we have seen.
He clearly has lost a lot of his cognitive skills probably through age, He is authoritarian and a bully. In this we see his attitude to the media.
This plays through to other countries. Whereas Trump is hamstrung by the constitution other countries leaders are not. Their attitude to the press is to put them in gaol on 'trumped up' charges
( pun intended).
Peter Grestor an Australian journalist noted this recently. The charges levelled against him in Egypt were laughable but a compliant judiciary did their job and he was put in gaol. He was only let out in part by pressure put on Egypt by the then President Obama.
Thus Trump has allowed dictators (and democratic ones such as those in Malaysia, Singapore, Turkey and elsewhere) not only to put journalists in gaol but also he has leverage to get them out. Indeed he would probably agree with them in gaol.
This is one of the ways Trump is dangerous. This all comes about because he feels he has to lie and thus attack the media on an unprecedented scale.
It also shows how much prestige the US has lost since Trump became leader.
He clearly has lost a lot of his cognitive skills probably through age, He is authoritarian and a bully. In this we see his attitude to the media.
This plays through to other countries. Whereas Trump is hamstrung by the constitution other countries leaders are not. Their attitude to the press is to put them in gaol on 'trumped up' charges
( pun intended).
Peter Grestor an Australian journalist noted this recently. The charges levelled against him in Egypt were laughable but a compliant judiciary did their job and he was put in gaol. He was only let out in part by pressure put on Egypt by the then President Obama.
Thus Trump has allowed dictators (and democratic ones such as those in Malaysia, Singapore, Turkey and elsewhere) not only to put journalists in gaol but also he has leverage to get them out. Indeed he would probably agree with them in gaol.
This is one of the ways Trump is dangerous. This all comes about because he feels he has to lie and thus attack the media on an unprecedented scale.
It also shows how much prestige the US has lost since Trump became leader.
Tuesday, 26 December 2017
TV Shows I have enjoyed and perhaps not over the Year
I watched The Good Doctor and enjoyed it. It is about a young man who is both autistic and has savant syndrome. The actor who plays him is brilliant as is Richard Schiff of West Wing fame.
As might be expected few people wanted him on the staff but he gets on and eventually gets accepted. All the main characters of the series are strong. Some likable and others not just like in an office. The last episode has us on emotional tenterhooks.
I am still trying to work out how a kid who left home got to be a trainee surgeon.
It is a good series but not a great one.
Madam Secretary is still going. It is really the poor man's ( or should I say woman's) West Wing. A small sexist point. She used to be a babe but in the current series she has aged. Still attractive but no babe. Wears glasses as all wonks do.
The Characters all work EXCEPT her family. Her husband not only flew jets but has a PhD in Theology. He is also in intelligence. nor are the kids believable.
It was a good series going to merely competent.
DCI Banks was an absolute pearler. All the characters were strong with Caroline Catz absolutely shining. It has now finished with Annie dying . She was the love of Alan Banks life. The series could no longer go on without her.
This was a great series.
Endeavour is still going on. It is about the young Chief Inspector Morse. Only in this instance Sean Evans really nails the character in which John thaw much early on didn't. You can see trying to protect vulnerable young women. You can see although unsure how women would find him given his honesty. He is also a topnotch detective. Helped a lot by Joe Thursday. Magnificently played by roger Allam. All the characters work as well. They also change as people do.
A Great series.
Inspector Morse is a let down. It is a let down because quite simply John Thaw is not believable as an intelligent classical music lover who is a dab at crosswords. how any woman could find this man attractive is beyond belief. What makes the series somewhat watchable is the support characters. His boos ( for most of the time) , Lewis all the time, and the male pathologist.
Poor series
Lewis was a revelation to me.It was far superior to Morse. Lewis is a very likable character. Hathaway his'sidekick' is what Morse should have been like in many ways. Again the characters are strong.
Wallander is sorry was a superb series. A great cast headed by the great Kenneth Branagh. It is a very dark police series. There is also the bonus of David Warner playing Wallander's father.
A young Tom Hiddleston is in it for a time as well. I never tire of watching this.
A great series
A Touch of Frost is the oldest series but is still enjoyable to watch. The characters are strong and change. Frost has good and bad points but why does he always have two pens in his coat pocket?
A good series
Inspector George Gently is over finally. It started well. this is the only show where Martin Shaw acts well in but it got bogged down. his offsider changes way too much for my liking.
A good series that went to competent.
There are a few things that stand out her.
Firstly an outstanding series must have chemistry between their characters
Secondly it seems crime dramas needs to be based on a set of novels. This gives the writers something to think about when starting out. There is a basis for what the episode is about.
You can always watch great series no matter how dated they are!!
As might be expected few people wanted him on the staff but he gets on and eventually gets accepted. All the main characters of the series are strong. Some likable and others not just like in an office. The last episode has us on emotional tenterhooks.
I am still trying to work out how a kid who left home got to be a trainee surgeon.
It is a good series but not a great one.
Madam Secretary is still going. It is really the poor man's ( or should I say woman's) West Wing. A small sexist point. She used to be a babe but in the current series she has aged. Still attractive but no babe. Wears glasses as all wonks do.
The Characters all work EXCEPT her family. Her husband not only flew jets but has a PhD in Theology. He is also in intelligence. nor are the kids believable.
It was a good series going to merely competent.
DCI Banks was an absolute pearler. All the characters were strong with Caroline Catz absolutely shining. It has now finished with Annie dying . She was the love of Alan Banks life. The series could no longer go on without her.
This was a great series.
Endeavour is still going on. It is about the young Chief Inspector Morse. Only in this instance Sean Evans really nails the character in which John thaw much early on didn't. You can see trying to protect vulnerable young women. You can see although unsure how women would find him given his honesty. He is also a topnotch detective. Helped a lot by Joe Thursday. Magnificently played by roger Allam. All the characters work as well. They also change as people do.
A Great series.
Inspector Morse is a let down. It is a let down because quite simply John Thaw is not believable as an intelligent classical music lover who is a dab at crosswords. how any woman could find this man attractive is beyond belief. What makes the series somewhat watchable is the support characters. His boos ( for most of the time) , Lewis all the time, and the male pathologist.
Poor series
Lewis was a revelation to me.It was far superior to Morse. Lewis is a very likable character. Hathaway his'sidekick' is what Morse should have been like in many ways. Again the characters are strong.
Wallander is sorry was a superb series. A great cast headed by the great Kenneth Branagh. It is a very dark police series. There is also the bonus of David Warner playing Wallander's father.
A young Tom Hiddleston is in it for a time as well. I never tire of watching this.
A great series
A Touch of Frost is the oldest series but is still enjoyable to watch. The characters are strong and change. Frost has good and bad points but why does he always have two pens in his coat pocket?
A good series
Inspector George Gently is over finally. It started well. this is the only show where Martin Shaw acts well in but it got bogged down. his offsider changes way too much for my liking.
A good series that went to competent.
There are a few things that stand out her.
Firstly an outstanding series must have chemistry between their characters
Secondly it seems crime dramas needs to be based on a set of novels. This gives the writers something to think about when starting out. There is a basis for what the episode is about.
You can always watch great series no matter how dated they are!!
Monday, 25 December 2017
19 things we learnt from the US election.
Andrew Gelman and Julia Azari wrote on this very topic.
We can not only read their paper but also accompanying comments from other people the Journal editor obviously asked as well as the authors rejoinder. Add in the comments and you have excellent and educative reading in the holiday season.
Postscript:
Andrew Gelman is obviously a top bloke. I made a comment on this superb article at his blog. Just something like what a great article or something like that.
It went into the ether.
I e-mailed him at his Uni e-mail account on boxing day. He replied on his boxing day and rectified the error.
Just goes to show a great blog run by a great bloke!!
We can not only read their paper but also accompanying comments from other people the Journal editor obviously asked as well as the authors rejoinder. Add in the comments and you have excellent and educative reading in the holiday season.
Postscript:
Andrew Gelman is obviously a top bloke. I made a comment on this superb article at his blog. Just something like what a great article or something like that.
It went into the ether.
I e-mailed him at his Uni e-mail account on boxing day. He replied on his boxing day and rectified the error.
Just goes to show a great blog run by a great bloke!!
Thursday, 21 December 2017
Around the Traps 22/12/17 Christmas Edition
It is time for Around the Traps again
Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
- Ross Guest on seven-charts-on-the-2017-budget-update
- Saul Eslake on government-budget-update-saved-by-higher-than-expected-economic-figures
- Hugh White on clear-messages-required-twitter-age-diplomacy
- Kelsey Munro on free-press-magic-weapon-against-china-influence-peddling
- Ross Gittins on turnbulls-economic-luck-more-forecast-than-actual
- Kevin Boreham on explainer-the-charges-against-an-australian-man-accused-of-being-an-economic-agent-for-north-korea
- Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-2017-year-in-review
- Emma Gearon on bmi-is-underestimating-obesity-in-australia-waist-circumference-needs-to-be-measured-too
- Rebecca Pearse on the-federal-climate-policy-review-a-recipe-for-business-as-usual
- Alan Pears on turnbull-has-politicked-himself-into-irrelevance-on-energy-and-climate-in-2018
- The Kouk on ignore-the-spin-government-debt-is-going-up-and-up
- Parliamentary Library on Whither_the_private_health_insurance_rebate
- Tanya Hill on its-going-to-be-a-long-summers-day-today-seriously
- German Lopez on trump-racism-economic-anxiety-study , ta-nehisi-coates-cornel-west-twitter
- Calculated Risk on a-few-comments-housing-and-policy, a-few-comments-on-november-existing-home-sales , a-few-comments-on-november-new-home-sales
- Macromania on the-great-american-slump-update
- Peter Dorman on from-employer-coverage-to-single-payer
- Andrew Prokop on robert-mueller-fired-trump
- Van Jackson on what-least-credible-document-us-strategic-history-reveals
- John Edwards on economic-aggression-donald-trump-picks-fight-china
- John Cassidy on the-gop-tax-bill-is-unworkable
- Maggir Kourth Baker on politics-moves-fast-peer-review-moves-slow-whats-a-political-scientist-to-do
- Ezra Klein on gop-tax-bill-cuts-reform-republican
- The Conversable Economist on thoughts-on-single-payer-health-care-plan
- Perry Bacon on the-goals-of-the-gops-anti-mueller-campaign-and-their-likelihood-for-success
- Stephen Pressman on gop-tax-plan-doubles-down-on-policies-that-are-crushing-the-middle-class
- Aro Glogower on republican-tax-plan-tricks-loopholes-inefficiency-accountants
- Linda Beale on do-gop-house-and-senate-reps-even-know-what-they-voted-for
- Zeesha Aleem on jerusalem-trump-un-israel-capital-haley
- Roger Farmer on a-uk-sovereign-wealth-fund
- Mainly Macro on the-political-consequences-of-brexit , voting-labour-isnt-going-to-turn-uk-into-Venuzuala
- John Cullinan on latest-issue-of-the-economic-and-social-review-4
- Coppolla comment on thirty-three-flawed-theses
- Raghu Karnard on sonia-rahul-gandhi-india-modi-bjp-congress-nehru
- Elliot Brennan on favorites-2017-international-crisis-group-myanmar
- Barkley Rosser on black-mirror-big-data-becomes-big-brother-in-china
- Murali Krisnan on crackdown-free-press-india
- Lorenzo on origins-of-philosophy , islam-as-philosophical-dead-end
- Brad De Long on notes-on-gerald-friedman
- Mainly Macro on the-politicisation-of-immigration
- Tim Harford on why-the-robot-boost-is-yet-to-arrive
- Andreas Ortmann on lemonade-and-the-question-of-laboratory-evidence
- Menzie Chinn on best-schematic-ever-financial-frictions-in-macro-finance
- Noahopinion on sheepskin-effects-signals-without-signalling
- The Conversable Economist on migration-from-global-perspective , us-dollar-many-roles-in-global-economy
- Noah Smith on sorry-but-economics-isn-t-astrology-for-dudes Thanks Brad
- Mean Squared errors on the-next-new-macro, the-microfoundations-hoax, houdinis-straightjacket Thanks Brad
- Tyler Cowen on rate-return-on-everything
- stumbling and mumbling on big-facts-in-economics
- Mike Konzal on neoliberalism-chait-austerity-democratic-party-sanders-clinton
- Macromania on my-perspective-on-bitcoin-project
- Quentin Hanich on right-balance-ocean-protection-and-industrial-fishing
- Mark Tilmarsh on how-painting-escaped-the-canvas-and-another-brush-with-death
- Rebecca Colvin et al on climate-scientists-and-policymakers-need-to-trust-each-other-but-not-too-much
- Malcolm Cook on favourites-2017-trump-america
- Stephen Grenville on favourites-2017-vietnam-war
- Robyn Whitakker on what-history-really-tells-us-about-the-birth-of-jesus
- Adam Behr on humbug-tinsel-and-gravy-in-search-of-the-perfect-christmas-pop-song
- and Then Theres Physics on what-if-global-warming-ends-up-being-greater-than-we-thought , arguing-about-the-greenhouse-effect-again
- Moyhu on giss-november-global-down-003-from-october , burning-history-fiery-furphies , on-climate-sensitivity-and-nonsense-claims about-an-IPCC-model
- David Appell on scientists-link-hurricane-harveys-record-rainfall-to-climate-change
- Graham Readfearn on checkmate-how-do-climate-science-deniers-predictions-stack-up
- stranger-than-fiction
- billy-beane-murder
- red-doc-blue-doc-rich-doc-rich-doc
- yes-virginia-can-rational-vote
- problem-media-concentration-deregulation-usually-treated-series-unrelated-problems-much-like-cocaine-addict-complains-drug-problem-bankruptcy-divorce-encount
- r-squared-bayesian-regression-models
- Simply Statistics on puerto-rico-s-governor-wants-recount-of-hurricane-death-toll
- John Cook on laplace-approx-logistic , hermite-polynomials-expected-values-and-integration
- Kaiser Fung on visible-and-invisible-errors-and-the-nefarious-power-of-suggestion
- nuttin. too much christmas tucker😁
- rhetoric-and-reality-in-economics
- Britspeak on book-review-david-lough-no-more-champagne-churchill-and-his-money Thanks Jim Rose
- David Morgan on review-kevin-rudd-and-his-road-be-pm
- stumbling and mumbling on five-books-that-made-me
- Alex Olivier on favourites-2017-east-west-street
- Kvams on a-question-of-balance-by-william-nordhaus Thanks Jim rose
- potential-economic-and-social-effects-driverless-cars
- international-tax-reforms-flexible-prices
- children-time-allocation-and-consumption-insurance
- stationary-bandits-taxation-and-emergence-states
- globalisation-may-soon-accelerate-again-time-get-domestic-policies-right
- exposure-brexit-regions-both-sides-channel
- concerning-fiscal-and-external-trajectories-us
- responsiveness-wives-labour-supply-husbands-job-loss
- rise-nonbank-finance-and-monetary-policy-transmission
- economists-relaxed-about-bitcoin-new-cfm-cepr-survey
Wednesday, 20 December 2017
The myth behind the Tax cuts
According to the Treasury Secretary of the USA the tax cuts are self financing. Imagine that. you can cut taxes but receive all the revenue lost back by increased taxation via a stronger economy.
That occurred under Reagan, and Bush the son and here in OZ under Howard. Yes I am joking but I do member Sinclair Davidson goebelsising about the Reagan tax cuts to this effect. It was as you might expect poor research and attempting to argue black was white.
What occurred in all three cases as anyone literate in economics might expect is the structural budget deficit rose substantially. It will here as well.
There are other effects which have been well documented. It will boost inequality. Trump gets a large tax cuts which his Press Secretary quite obviously lied about.ere as well.
The tax cuts benefit quite the opposite of people Trump 'campaigned for'. When will these people wake up and realise they have been wood ducked? your guess is as good as mine.
The Republicans will be in a bind. It will not take much time to see the line the tax cuts pay for themselves is entirely false.
This means they either allow the budget to blow out when close to full employment or implement spending cuts. The spending cuts would be in the usual areas which again would boost inequality. moreover taking away benefits always leads to electoral back lash.
So Republican have to chose what will have the least effect on their electoral chances next November. blowing the deficits or spending cuts to people who clearly cannot afford it.
Republicans have always been deficit hawks in opposition and not caring about the deficit in government so the odds favour the budget blowing out ( for not much gain.)
That occurred under Reagan, and Bush the son and here in OZ under Howard. Yes I am joking but I do member Sinclair Davidson goebelsising about the Reagan tax cuts to this effect. It was as you might expect poor research and attempting to argue black was white.
What occurred in all three cases as anyone literate in economics might expect is the structural budget deficit rose substantially. It will here as well.
There are other effects which have been well documented. It will boost inequality. Trump gets a large tax cuts which his Press Secretary quite obviously lied about.ere as well.
The tax cuts benefit quite the opposite of people Trump 'campaigned for'. When will these people wake up and realise they have been wood ducked? your guess is as good as mine.
The Republicans will be in a bind. It will not take much time to see the line the tax cuts pay for themselves is entirely false.
This means they either allow the budget to blow out when close to full employment or implement spending cuts. The spending cuts would be in the usual areas which again would boost inequality. moreover taking away benefits always leads to electoral back lash.
So Republican have to chose what will have the least effect on their electoral chances next November. blowing the deficits or spending cuts to people who clearly cannot afford it.
Republicans have always been deficit hawks in opposition and not caring about the deficit in government so the odds favour the budget blowing out ( for not much gain.)
Tuesday, 19 December 2017
A Cabinet reshuffle goes awry
A Cabinet reshuffle is an opportunity for a free-kick for the government. We hear such claptrap as the government has so much talent. , the Ministry is refreshed with the new blood etc.
It is a bipartisan deal the ALP is as bad with the claptrap as the LNP.
On a day where the government should have good news about it in the media instead we have news Barnaby Joyce possibly the most over-rated politician in Parliament has punted two nationals from the ministry because one he hated his guts and the other had the temerity to think some-one else was better suited to be the Deputy leader of the Nationals than the person Joyce wanted.
See HERE and HERE
It merely is another example of the government fighting within it self.
Whilst the dumping of both the Misters will not have the consequences of the snipping that Abbott clearly does I do think we will hear in the future of 'poor choices' made by Joyce from time to time.
It is a bipartisan deal the ALP is as bad with the claptrap as the LNP.
On a day where the government should have good news about it in the media instead we have news Barnaby Joyce possibly the most over-rated politician in Parliament has punted two nationals from the ministry because one he hated his guts and the other had the temerity to think some-one else was better suited to be the Deputy leader of the Nationals than the person Joyce wanted.
See HERE and HERE
It merely is another example of the government fighting within it self.
Whilst the dumping of both the Misters will not have the consequences of the snipping that Abbott clearly does I do think we will hear in the future of 'poor choices' made by Joyce from time to time.
Monday, 18 December 2017
We retain the Ashes
As I forecast we have retained the Ashes. this prediction was not hard to predict.
I am unsure whether I made it here or at Aftergrog blog Cricket.
England was always going to lose because they never had the attack to get 20 Aussie wickets. They had no fast bowlers at all. Okay the other Overton was injured ( he is faster than any of our bowlers). Wood had an injury cloud and then we come to Stokes. Either he cannot play any form of cricket or he can play test cricket. They certainly missed him. ( I rate him a better all rounder than Botham or Flintoff)
I thought Cook was in his declining years but was not prepared for such a large decline. I did not think Root would go through such a bad patch ( by this stage he should have scored at least one ton).
Add to this Ali's inability at bat and ball here and you are looking at a 5-0 whitewash.
What is truly astonishing is every man and his dog knew there would be plenty of short balls yet all the batsmen , the tail enders in particular seemed surprised by this and had no idea on how to bat.
It is not hard to coach such people on how to bat yet this seems not to have occurred.
However even a 5-0 does not mean we shall retain the Ashes in in two years time. Our batsmen showed in Adelaide they are all at sea against a moving ball. Moreover we have an attack for Australian not English conditions.
I am unsure whether I made it here or at Aftergrog blog Cricket.
England was always going to lose because they never had the attack to get 20 Aussie wickets. They had no fast bowlers at all. Okay the other Overton was injured ( he is faster than any of our bowlers). Wood had an injury cloud and then we come to Stokes. Either he cannot play any form of cricket or he can play test cricket. They certainly missed him. ( I rate him a better all rounder than Botham or Flintoff)
I thought Cook was in his declining years but was not prepared for such a large decline. I did not think Root would go through such a bad patch ( by this stage he should have scored at least one ton).
Add to this Ali's inability at bat and ball here and you are looking at a 5-0 whitewash.
What is truly astonishing is every man and his dog knew there would be plenty of short balls yet all the batsmen , the tail enders in particular seemed surprised by this and had no idea on how to bat.
It is not hard to coach such people on how to bat yet this seems not to have occurred.
However even a 5-0 does not mean we shall retain the Ashes in in two years time. Our batsmen showed in Adelaide they are all at sea against a moving ball. Moreover we have an attack for Australian not English conditions.
MYEFO
We have another MYEFO again.
For comment see Saul Eslake and Ross Guest. Lets add Ross Gittins
What is extraordinary that in the whole time the government has been in office they have not decreased the structural budget deficit at all. All that has occurred is that the Cyclical improvement has hidden the problems of the structural deficit.
Indeed if the talk of tax cuts prove correct this structural deficit will increase if there is no commensurate cut in spending!!
One little thing. On an accrual accounting basis which is the only way to look at the budget the deficit is only about 0.5% of GDP in other words it is in balance!
For comment see Saul Eslake and Ross Guest. Lets add Ross Gittins
What is extraordinary that in the whole time the government has been in office they have not decreased the structural budget deficit at all. All that has occurred is that the Cyclical improvement has hidden the problems of the structural deficit.
Indeed if the talk of tax cuts prove correct this structural deficit will increase if there is no commensurate cut in spending!!
One little thing. On an accrual accounting basis which is the only way to look at the budget the deficit is only about 0.5% of GDP in other words it is in balance!
Sunday, 17 December 2017
The Royal Commission gets it wrong
The Royal Commission into Child Abuse has said there should be changes to the Catholics confession and that catholic priests should no longer be celibate.
This is badly wrong
First confession. does anyone out there imagine a paedophile will confess their sin in a confession to a priest? The RC had no evidence of this at all merely an academic question. It is absurd. Paedophiles see nothing wrong with their actions
We should note the Roman Catholic denomination response has been as silly. If a person confesses then they will take responsibility for their actions. A persons who confessed such a crime but would not go to the police has not confessed at all
Secondly getting rid of celibate priests would not make one iota of difference to paedophiles. They want sex with children. Being ',married! would make no difference at all. I call this Soony's folly.
Getting rid of celibacy would reduce fornication and adultery but not paedophilia.
We should also note that the Pastoral epistles has a minster MUST have a reverent wife and obedient children. I do not think any denomination obeys that all and of course celibacy is a compete contraction to this.
This is badly wrong
First confession. does anyone out there imagine a paedophile will confess their sin in a confession to a priest? The RC had no evidence of this at all merely an academic question. It is absurd. Paedophiles see nothing wrong with their actions
We should note the Roman Catholic denomination response has been as silly. If a person confesses then they will take responsibility for their actions. A persons who confessed such a crime but would not go to the police has not confessed at all
Secondly getting rid of celibate priests would not make one iota of difference to paedophiles. They want sex with children. Being ',married! would make no difference at all. I call this Soony's folly.
Getting rid of celibacy would reduce fornication and adultery but not paedophilia.
We should also note that the Pastoral epistles has a minster MUST have a reverent wife and obedient children. I do not think any denomination obeys that all and of course celibacy is a compete contraction to this.
The Bennelong Result
There has been a lot of hooey being made of the Bennelong result.
It was a most unusual by-election. ( If the Court of Disputed returns had ordered it like in New England it would have been a re-election.
It was the first time that the member had re-nominated for the electorate. Usually people resign, retire or die. Also important was people knew that a change in voting would mean a change in numbers in parliament that could well mean something.
In other words comparing this result to previous by-elections is completely worthless.
Could I also in Andrew Elder fashion try to get Journalists not to write about 'internal party polls' unless they can see all the results of said poll. Parties very rarely poll one marginal seat. it costs far too much for a start and as we saw form the two poling companies that tried to survey Bennelong it is very problematic. Getting the basics right is very hard. It proved almost impossible in Bennolong where a significant proportion had poor english speaking skills for example!!
What parties usually do is poll maybe 4 marginal seats and go from there.
Clearly most voters did not care how lackadaisical Alexander was with regard to his father's birth. The same could be said for Barnaby Joyce.
I thought the two candidates were poor. Alexander look old, tired and bored. Kenneally although having plenty of energy made a number of gaffes. I hope she does not go to the Senate.
As if to show us the result was highly problematic Newspol on the same weekend shows us the Government is still losing and losing badly.
We do not know if voting intentions changed over time in Bennelong and if so why.
It still is the case that the government is highly likely to lose the next election
It was a most unusual by-election. ( If the Court of Disputed returns had ordered it like in New England it would have been a re-election.
It was the first time that the member had re-nominated for the electorate. Usually people resign, retire or die. Also important was people knew that a change in voting would mean a change in numbers in parliament that could well mean something.
In other words comparing this result to previous by-elections is completely worthless.
Could I also in Andrew Elder fashion try to get Journalists not to write about 'internal party polls' unless they can see all the results of said poll. Parties very rarely poll one marginal seat. it costs far too much for a start and as we saw form the two poling companies that tried to survey Bennelong it is very problematic. Getting the basics right is very hard. It proved almost impossible in Bennolong where a significant proportion had poor english speaking skills for example!!
What parties usually do is poll maybe 4 marginal seats and go from there.
Clearly most voters did not care how lackadaisical Alexander was with regard to his father's birth. The same could be said for Barnaby Joyce.
I thought the two candidates were poor. Alexander look old, tired and bored. Kenneally although having plenty of energy made a number of gaffes. I hope she does not go to the Senate.
As if to show us the result was highly problematic Newspol on the same weekend shows us the Government is still losing and losing badly.
We do not know if voting intentions changed over time in Bennelong and if so why.
It still is the case that the government is highly likely to lose the next election
Thursday, 14 December 2017
Around the Traps 15/12/17
It is time again for Around the Traps.
Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
- Kathy Eagar et al on no-most-people-arent-in-severe-pain-when-they-die
- Krisitan Sybert on charity-regulators-should-not-assume-that-donors-always-know-best
- Croaking Cassandra on two-bims-and-a-bureaucrat , adrian-orr-as-governor-designate, why-so-secretive , central-bank-e-cash , a-few-hyefu-thoughts
- The Kouk on oz-economy-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly
- Jason Potts on bitcoin-may-be-reaching-new-heights-but-the-asx-shows-the-blockchain-is-reinventing-business
- Tim Baxter on the-government-is-miscounting-greenhouse-emissions-reductions
- Glenn Savage on naplan-2017-results-have-largely-flat-lined-and-patterns-of-inequality-continue
- Jenny Buchan on what-is-going-rotten-in-the-franchise-businesses-plagued-by-scandals
- Louise Grimmer and Mathew Bailey on westfields-history-tracks-the-rise-of-the-australian-shopping-centre-and-shows-whats-to-come
- Hugh White on how-australia-can-help-avoid-disastrous-korean-war
- Greg Jericho on will-the-end-of-the-housing-boom-come-with-a-bang-or-a-wimper , this-year-has-been-about-companies-and-jobs-will-2018-be-about-wages
- Richard Holden on vital-signs-australia-heads-into-2018-with-mixed-economic-signals
- David Blowers on a-gas-shortage-next-year-is-unlikely-but-thats-the-only-good-news
- Michael Salter on royal-commission-report-makes-preventing-institutional-sexual-abuse-a-national-responsibility
- Ross Gittins on whos-ripping-it-off-competition-theory-and-reality
- Amy Sorkin Davidson on donald-trump-roy-moore-and-the-degradation-of-the-gop
- Mark Thoma gives us Kruggers on the-republican-war-on-children
- David Glasner on has-the-sp-500-risen-by-25-since-november-8-2016-thanks-to-economic-nationalist-america-first-policies
- Tim Duy on expect-the-fed-to-stand-by-its-2018-outlook Thanks Mark
- Larry Summers on sugar-high-is-right-diagnosis-tax-cuts-are-the-wrong-prescription , we-are-even-more-convinced-that-thousands-will-die-prematurely-if-the-aca-is-repealedThanks Mark
- Kruggers on pessimism-and-paralysis-in-the-aftermath-of-the-financial-crisis , what-happens-if-the-tax-bill-is-a-revenue-disasterThanks Mark
- Promarket on secret-driver-us-health-care-costs-politicians-wanting-get-reelected Thanks Mark
- Douglas Campbell on janet-yellens-tenure-in-retrospect-(has-the-economy-really-recovered) Thanks Mark
- Ceccetti and Schoenholtz on a-monetary-policy-framework-for-the-next-recession Thanks Mark
- Nouriel Roubini on trump-populist-plutocracy Thanks Brad
- Macro Musing on yes-occupational-licensing-is-making-us-economy-less-of-an-OCA
- The Conversable Economist on snapshots-of-us-housing-market , adding-monetary-costs-of-lost-lives-to-the-optoid-crisis , occupational-licensing-under-fire
- New Deal Democrat on the-wage-debt-deflation-dynamic-and-the-next-recession
- Livio De Matteo on the-long-restructuring-of-ontarios-health-spending
- Nate Silver on republicans-shouldnt-assume-roy-moore-was-an-outlier
- Harry Enten on special-elections-so-far-point-to-a-democratic-wave-in-2018
- Kevin Drum on social-security-will-be-solvent-for-the-rest-of-the-century Thanks Mark
- Calculated Risk on key-measures-show-inflation-mostly-below-Fed's-target
- David Hughes on how-republican-missteps-turned-alabama-blue
- Ashwini Tambe on alabama-and-metoos-disruptive-force
- Hale Stewart on the-ugly-picture-of-us-wage-growth
- Ezra Klein on paul-krugman-economics-policy
- Joseph Gagnon on feds-inconsistent-numbers Thanks Mark
- Larry Summers and Jason Furman on robert-barro-s-tax-reform-advocacy-a-response-by-jason-furman-and-lawrence-h--summers Thanks Brad
- Energy Institute on the-decline-of-coal-break-the-fall-or-soften-the-blow Thanks Jim Rose
- Kevin O'Rourke on who-is-fudging-answer-not-the-eu
- Bank Underground on looking-inside-the-ledgers-the-bank-of-england-as-a-lender-of-last-resort Thanks Mark
- Dani Rodrik on separating-private-and-public-finance-in-europe Thanks Brad
- Mainly Macro on immigration-and-real-wages-reality-and-perceptions
- long and variable on moving-the-bank-of-england-to-birmingham-wont-help-monetary-or-financial-policy
- Kwei Bo Huang on taiwan-and-its-south-pacific-allies
- Isabel Hilton on china-contradictions-climate-leadership
- The Conversable Economist on do-you-rejoice-for-china
- Deakwon Son and Andray Abrahamian on south-korea-search-autonomy
- Roger Farmer on how-much-debt-do-we-need-my-answer-70-of-gdp
- Nick Rowe on the-sustainable-bond-finance-laffer-curve
- Ross Gittins on we-should-rescue-economics-from-folly-of-neoliberalism
- Tim Harford on the-dangers-of-dark-nudging
- stumbling and mumbling on entrepreneurs-vs-bureaucrats , in-defence-of-the-labour-theory-of-value, on-technological-regress , inequalities-that-matter-dont
- Barry Eichengreen et al on The Global Productivity Slowdown Thanks Brad
- Menzie Chinn et al on financial-spillovers-and-macroprudential-policies
- Stephen Grenville on rethinking-macro-economics-fiscal-policy
- Macro Musings on why-you-should-care-about-divisia
- Amelia Thomsom-DeVeaux on more-terrorist-attacks-can-make-people-more-resilient
- David Glasner on hayeks-rapid-rise-to-stardom
- Brad De Long on brad-delong-and-charlie-deist-on-austrian-economics
- Promarket on george-stigler-freshwater-economics-won-day Thanks Mark
- Mainly Macro on the-advantage-of-central-bank-not-being-ahead-of-the-curve
- The Conversable economist on ricardos-comparative-advantage-after-two-centuries
- Eric Lonergan on rethinking-brexit-via-kilkenny-oxford
- Robert Shiller on business/bitcoin-investing Thanks Mark
- Ben Bernanke on what-can-central-banks-do-manage-next-financial-crisis Thanks Mark
- global inequality on the-abc-of-globalization Thanks Mark
- Barkley Rosser on the-end-of-the-"Islamic State"
- Graham Willet on debauchery-on-the-fatal-shore-the-sex-lives-of-australias-convicts
- Tyler Cowen on are-corporate-jets-a-waste-of-money
- Thomas Piketty on trump-macron-same-fight Thanks Mark
- Catherine Hood on explainer-the-politics-of-heavy-metal
- Paul Harrison on the-psychology-of-christmas-shopping-how-marketers-nudge-you-to-buy
- Alastair Blanchard on friday-essay-the-myth-of-the-ancient-greek-gay-utopia
- John Cook on scholarship-versus-research
- David Appel on americans-are-using-less-electricity
- and Then Theres Physics on greater-future-global-warming , more-about-equilibrium-climate-sensitivity
- Cassandras Legacy on the-energy-transition-too-little-too-late
- Peter Sinclair on climate-change-intensifies-winter-extremes
- John Quiggin on the-utopian-currency-bitcoin-is-a-potentially-catastrophic-energy-guzzler
- Brian Resnik on arctic-sea-ice-extent-chart
- Tamino on rising-sea
- Sophie Lewis and Jennie Mallela on its-official-2016s-great-barrier-reef-bleaching-was-unlike-anything-that-went-before
- Pandora Hope et al on not-just-heat-even-our-spring-frosts-can-bear-the-fingerprint-of-climate-change
- reporter-sent-jama-paper-asked-thought
- workflow-baby-workflow
- two-steps-forward-one-step-back
- yes-can-statistical-inference-nonrandom-samples-good-thing-considering-nonrandom-samples-pretty-much-weve-got
- possible-paint-overly-bleak-picture-university-based-clinical-research
- the-night-riders-2
- need-stop-sacrificing-women-alter-deeply-mediocre-men-isba-edition
- piranha-problem-social-psychology-behavioral-economics-button-pushing-model-science-eats
- burn-vs-warm-iterative-simulation-algorithms
- ready-money
- Nate Silver on what-the-hell-is-happening-with-these-alabama-polls Trust me it is mainly about stats
- John Cook on efficiency-is-not-associative-for-matrix-multiplication
- Junkcharts on verging-on-trust
- Kaiser Fung on primer-on-the-limitation-of-current-ai
- reading-for-holidays
- No Hesitations on more-on-problem-with-bayesian-model-averaging
- Freakometrics on the myth of interpretability of econometric models
- enlightened-economist-prize-2017-longlist
- management-as-a-productive-resource
- rational-level-headed-compelling-cheerful-our-perspectives-series
- Macro Musings on doug-irwins-new-book
- Sam Roggeveen on review-hugh-white-without-america
- Lydia Khalil on favourites-2017-exile
- Nic Bisley on favourites-2017-american-war
- The Grumpy Economist on asset-pricing-competition
- family-peer-effects-and-mothers-labour-supply
- vocational-education-manufacturing-and-income-distribution
- fresh-approach-complete-banking-union-eurozone
- changing-geography-us-manufacturing-during-20th-century
- european-trust-crisis-and-rise-populism
- how-foreign-trade-distortions-hold-back-european-exporters
- safe-asset-shortage-rise-mark-ups-and-decline-labour-share
- analysing-exposure-uk-exports-eu-tariffs-quotas-and-antidumping-under-no-deal
- industry-growth-through-spinoffs-and-start-ups
- when-government-increases-funding-research-disease-others-spend-less
- when-employers-are-unfair-even-unaffected-workers-underperformance
- labour-clauses-trade-agreements-promote-southern-exports-north
- confidence-uncertainty-and-macroeconomic-fluctuations
- growth-multi-authored-journal-articles-economics
- economics-bitcoin-payment-system
Wednesday, 13 December 2017
Bennelong
The Bennelong re-election appears to be going to the wire. The latest poll is here. The margin of error is ion the largish side.
I have never seen so many pollies.
John Alexander appears very old and tired.I have never liked voting for candidates older then myself. Perhaps it is the drive from the Eastern Suburbs from where he lives!!
I have said previously how unimpressive he was as a candidate. KKK on the other hand appears a ball of energy and in the complete opposite to Alexander she has a personalty. I stand by my claim there were better candidates for the ALP than her.
My vote will be a changed vote as in the end the ALP will be getting my vote after voting Liberal twice . In my time honoured tradition I vote to change a Government after two terms and continue to do so until they are defeated.
Postscript
Showing just how incompetent the Liberals are I have received a flyer from them in CHINESE. Yeah my name sounds chinese doesn't it!
I also got a robocall from Alexander on my mobile. Obviously political calls are allowed if you are on the do not call register.
I have never seen so many pollies.
John Alexander appears very old and tired.I have never liked voting for candidates older then myself. Perhaps it is the drive from the Eastern Suburbs from where he lives!!
I have said previously how unimpressive he was as a candidate. KKK on the other hand appears a ball of energy and in the complete opposite to Alexander she has a personalty. I stand by my claim there were better candidates for the ALP than her.
My vote will be a changed vote as in the end the ALP will be getting my vote after voting Liberal twice . In my time honoured tradition I vote to change a Government after two terms and continue to do so until they are defeated.
Postscript
Showing just how incompetent the Liberals are I have received a flyer from them in CHINESE. Yeah my name sounds chinese doesn't it!
I also got a robocall from Alexander on my mobile. Obviously political calls are allowed if you are on the do not call register.
Tuesday, 12 December 2017
Evangelicals and Jerusalem.
It is said one of the reasons Trump recognised Jerusalem is because US evangelicals strongly supported this.
Gary Burge shows how bad their understanding of the bible is.
A few short points.
1) Modern Jews are not heirs of Abraham. Christians are. The heirs are those who had the faith of Abraham. It is not genealogical.
2) It follows that modern Jews can not gain entry into Heaven as they refuse to recognise Jesus. There is no-one to bear their sins.
3) it seems a lot of 'evangelical' do not understand this. voters.
Gary Burge shows how bad their understanding of the bible is.
A few short points.
1) Modern Jews are not heirs of Abraham. Christians are. The heirs are those who had the faith of Abraham. It is not genealogical.
2) It follows that modern Jews can not gain entry into Heaven as they refuse to recognise Jesus. There is no-one to bear their sins.
3) it seems a lot of 'evangelical' do not understand this. voters.
Monday, 11 December 2017
In defence of Sam Dastyari
I cannot believe I am about to write a defence of someone I detest but so be it.
I have written previously about him and said like Graham Richardson before him he was very good at self promotion at gullible journalists but in practice he, like Richardson before had no political skills and was hopeless at political strategy.
This is borne out by Richardson's departure from politics and Dastyari latest political immolation.
Any person with even a modicum of political nous would realise the political implications of a chinese businessman paying his expenses. Not our Sam.
However the implications of our same being a double agent is simply absurd. It shows Peter Dutton is a politician that goes over the top. Does he even understand what a double agent is? Our Same is employed both by ASIO and the chinese intelligence service?
What has he done. He has asked a lot of questions of what Australia's role is within the south China sea. So? Are people actually saying the chinese intelligence services are so bereft of knowledge they ask Our Sam to ask the tough questions so they know? Yes you can see how stupid that line of thought is. When you examine his questions you can see Our Sam is trying to imitate Robert Ray and John Faulkner. He doesn't come within cooee of that.
He gets no information and more importantly he doesn't show a shifty government as Public Servants squirm in evading questions. In short Our Sam does not know how to ask questions.
Next we have him asking Mrs Coutts Trotter not to meet certain people in Hong Kong. Let us get one thing straight. no-one has ever said Our Sam has much foreign affairs expertise. Also Mrs Coutts trotter and Our Sam are long time factional enemies sometimes bitter enemies. Why would she take any notice of Our Sam's suggestions???
Our Sam should get out of politics but that is because he is hopeless at it not because of allegations that have no evidence.
He will resign and Parliament and the ALP will be far the better for it.
(Yes I was using our sam in a sarcastic vein.)
Update:
Gawn
POstscript:
Who leaked what Our Sam said to his Chinese friend/benefactor?
I very much doubt it was ASIO. I very much doubt if it went to the National Security committee so I go for the Minister responsible for ASIO.
I have written previously about him and said like Graham Richardson before him he was very good at self promotion at gullible journalists but in practice he, like Richardson before had no political skills and was hopeless at political strategy.
This is borne out by Richardson's departure from politics and Dastyari latest political immolation.
Any person with even a modicum of political nous would realise the political implications of a chinese businessman paying his expenses. Not our Sam.
However the implications of our same being a double agent is simply absurd. It shows Peter Dutton is a politician that goes over the top. Does he even understand what a double agent is? Our Same is employed both by ASIO and the chinese intelligence service?
What has he done. He has asked a lot of questions of what Australia's role is within the south China sea. So? Are people actually saying the chinese intelligence services are so bereft of knowledge they ask Our Sam to ask the tough questions so they know? Yes you can see how stupid that line of thought is. When you examine his questions you can see Our Sam is trying to imitate Robert Ray and John Faulkner. He doesn't come within cooee of that.
He gets no information and more importantly he doesn't show a shifty government as Public Servants squirm in evading questions. In short Our Sam does not know how to ask questions.
Next we have him asking Mrs Coutts Trotter not to meet certain people in Hong Kong. Let us get one thing straight. no-one has ever said Our Sam has much foreign affairs expertise. Also Mrs Coutts trotter and Our Sam are long time factional enemies sometimes bitter enemies. Why would she take any notice of Our Sam's suggestions???
Our Sam should get out of politics but that is because he is hopeless at it not because of allegations that have no evidence.
He will resign and Parliament and the ALP will be far the better for it.
(Yes I was using our sam in a sarcastic vein.)
Update:
Gawn
POstscript:
Who leaked what Our Sam said to his Chinese friend/benefactor?
I very much doubt it was ASIO. I very much doubt if it went to the National Security committee so I go for the Minister responsible for ASIO.
People are not in severe pain when they die
A very interesting article on whether people are in pain when they are facing death.
A great pity those who debated that dreadful bill in Victoria of state authorised killing did not know this. Indeed the bill's supporters said quite the opposite.
I do hope Ken Parish reads it as well.
A great pity those who debated that dreadful bill in Victoria of state authorised killing did not know this. Indeed the bill's supporters said quite the opposite.
I do hope Ken Parish reads it as well.
Sunday, 10 December 2017
Trump and the Stockmarket.
The inestimable David Glasner examines the performance of the Stockmarket and the effect Trump has had on it.
Result not much different to what occurred under Obama and the permanence is less so considering stocks on other counties.
He also notes how people such as those on the Wall Street Journal editorial page has changed opinion almost 180 degrees ( my words not his)!!!
Result not much different to what occurred under Obama and the permanence is less so considering stocks on other counties.
He also notes how people such as those on the Wall Street Journal editorial page has changed opinion almost 180 degrees ( my words not his)!!!
Thursday, 7 December 2017
Around the Traps 8/12/17
It is time for Around the Traps again.
Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
- Jim Minifie et al on australia-isnt-dominated-by-big-businesses-that-gouge-customers-grattan-report
- Croaking Cassandra on exports-in-a-cross-country-perspective , whither-cash, shameless-and-shameful, as no-transparent and obstructive as ever, reserve-bank-bim-resisting-reform , westpacs-plan-to-lower-productivity
- Harry Clarke on the-case-for-enhanced-australian-company-tax-cuts-modified-re-post-of-an-april-2016-post
- Ross Gittins on politicians-should-get-wings-clipped-on-infrasructure, latest-attack-on-welfare-unworthies-is-contemptible
- Dylan McConnell on yes-sas-battery-is-a-massive-battery-but-it-can-do-much-more-besides
- Greg Jericho on shades-of-sir-humphrey-in-banking-royal-commission-terms-of-reference , australian-consumers-need-protecting-in-an-economy-dominated-by-so-few-players , australias-economy-may-be-growing-but-households-are-yet-to-see-much-benefit
- Harry Clarke on North East Link
- David Rowe on sydneys-stadiums-debate-shows-sport-might-not-be-the-political-winner-it-once-was
- Lorraine Finlay on near-enough-may-not-be-good-enough-as-parliaments-dual-citizenship-crisis-deepens
- Samantha Hepburn on green-groups-and-charities-could-be-collateral-damage-in-governments-foreign-donation-ban
- YeeFui-Ng on ban-on-foreign-political-donations-is-both-too-broad-and-too-narrow-and-wont-fix-our-system
- Greg Jericho on australias-economy-may-be-growing-but-households-are-yet-to-see-much-benefit
- Keiran Hardy on new-foreign-interference-laws-will-compound-risks-to-whistleblowers-and-journalists
- Austin Sarat on should-lying-to-the-fbi-be-a-crime
- Mark Thoma gives us Kruggers on republicans-tax-lies-show-the-rot-spreads-wide-and-runs-deep, republicans-are-coming-for-your-benefits
- Andrew Prokop on trump-tweet-obstruction-justice
- Mathew Glassman on donald-trump-weak-president-neustadt
- Peter Beinart on trump-impeachment
- The Conversable Economist on tax-reform-with-spending-and-taxes-at-historical-averages , federal-income-taxes-at-highest-income-levels, what-financial-risks-are-lurking , why-more-americans-seem-stuck-in-place
- Noah Smith on workers-get-nothing-when-they-produce-more-wrong
- Economic Principals on finding the octopus Thanks Mark
- Garry Wills on big-rocket-man
- Perry Bacon on dont-expect-a-government-shutdown-but-dont-rule-it-out-either
- Tim Duy on will-growth-slow-in-2018-and-why Thanks Mark
- Promarket on will-repeal-net-neutrality-accelerate-trend-media-consolidation-history-cable-suggests-yes , americas-lost-einsteins-dealing-blow-innovation Thanks Mark
- Jennifer Williams and Sarah Wildman on trump-jerusalem-speech-israel-tel-aviv
- Gary Burge on evangelical-trump-jerusalem-embassy
- Galen Druke on should-partisan-gerrymandering-be-illegal
- Matt O'Brien on for-the-last-time-tax-cuts-dont-pay-for-themselves Thanks Brad
- Regina Jefferies on us-supreme-court-has-duty-stop-trump-travel-ban
- Calculated Risk on public-and-private-sector-payroll-jobs-under-various-Presidents
- Kruggers on facts-have-a-well-known-liberal-bias Thanks Mark
- Justin Wolfers on economic-facts-political-fictions Thanks Mark
- Kevin Drum on labor-productivity-is-just-terrible-these-days Thanks Mark
- Brad De Long on greg-mankiw-sigh-the-inestimable-value-of-the-samuelsonian-triad
- Rebecca Stoil on how-the-gop-became-a-pro-israel-party
- Edgar Morgenroth on brexit-and-the-irish-border , more-on-the-article-50-process
- long and variable on death-and-austerity
- Coppolla comment on trade-and-currency-brexiters-delusion
- Mainly Macro on Has Ireland scuppered Brexit?, first-stage-reality-and-brexiters
- James Goldrick on limits-global-britain
- Rodger Shanahan on yemen-s-ali-abdullah-saleh-demise-great-survivor
- Robert E Kelly on korean-peninsula-year-review
- Bec Strating on symbolic-politics-dokdotakeshima-dispute
- Hunter Marston on what-realistic-solution-myanmar-s-rakhine-state-crisis-might-look
- Jonathan Pryke on what-next-papua-new-guinea
- Spyros Sofos and Vittorio Felci on what-trumps-recognition-of-jerusalem-as-the-capital-of-israel-means-for-the-middle-east
- Anthony Bubalo on jerusalem-trump-s-reckless-roll-dice
- Donna Weeks on japan-shinzo-abe-wrestles-constitutional-change
- Freya Higgins-Desbiolles on spare-a-thought-for-bethlehem-this-christmas-as-politics-and-tourism-collide
- Stephen Grenville on the-bitcoin-bubble
- Mainly Macro on if-we-treat-plutocracy-as-democracy , government-debt-phobias-and-possible-cures
- Tim Harford on a-way-to-poke-facebook-of-its-uncontested-perch
- Tyler Cowen on simple-theory-moores-law-social-media
- Nick Rowe on negative-average-but-positive-marginal-cost-of-debt-finance
- Menzie Chinn on asset-prices-and-macroeconomic-outcomes-a-survey
- The Everyday Economist on the-phillips-curve-again Thanks Mark
- Bank Underground on optimal-quantitative-easing
- John Quiggin on bitcoin-an-even-bigger-waste-of-energy
- Nick Bunker on value-added/ten-years-after-the-beginning-of-the-great-recession-is-it-time-to-abandon-the-natural-rate-hypothesis Thanks Brad
- The Conversable Ecnomist on natural-fisheries-overtaken-by-acquaculturel
- Quantitative Ease on consumer-inflation-uncertainty-holding-steady
- Nick Rowe on seeing-through-sovereign-wealth-funds
- Andrew Gissing on you-should-never-drive-into-floodwater-some-roads-are-more-deadly-than-others
- long and variable on the-superintelligence
- Dean Biron on my-favourite-album-miles-daviss-a-tribute-to-jack-johnson
- Jack Anderson on russias-humiliating-ban-from-the-winter-olympics-is-the-right-move-to-protect-integrity-in-sport
- run75441 on why-i-do-not-say-much-on-facebook
- Michelle Langley on worlds-scientists-turn-to-asia-and-australia-to-rewrite-human-history
- Moyhu on october-ncepncar-global-anomaly-down-0.12C-from-october, november-global-surface-temperature-down-0.04C
- Real Climate on a-brief-review-of-rainfall-statistics
- hotwhopper on polar-bears-sexism-and-climate-science
- Arctic sea ice on piomas-december-2017
- orphan-drugs-forking-paths-id-prefer-multilevel-model-honest-ive-never-fit-model-sort-problem
- popular-expert-explains-communists-cant-win-chess-championships
- 80-power-lie
- four-missing-books-lawrence-otis-graham
- prevalent-incestuous-backslapping-research-culture-idea-work-criticized-anathema-let-alone-punk
- loss-of-confidence
- bin-yu-karl-kumbier-artificial-intelligence-statistics
- always-crashing-in-the-same-car
- interactive-visualizations-mcmc-gp
- Simply Statistics on hurricane-maria-official-death-count-in-conflict-with-mortality-data
- Junk charts on using-a-bardot-chart-for-survey-data
- Flowing Data on flawed-hate-crime-data-collection
- Rick Wiklin on problems-with-mean-imputation
- No Hesitations on the-problem-with-bayesian-model-averaging
- Alwyn Young on Consistency-Without-Inference. Thanks Brad
- Arthur Charpentier on the-myth-of-interpretability-of-econometric-models
- there-is-no-alternative
- Tim Harford on curious-books
- Greg Laden on recommended-holiday-gift-books
- managing-risk-and-complexity-legal-entity-identifier
- failure-central-clearing-counterparties
- aggregate-productivity-and-rise-mark-ups
- new-evidence-effectiveness-macroprudential-measures
- holistic-approach-capital-requirements-under-systemic-stress
- wealth-poverty-and-inequality-colonial-jamaica
- principle-comparative-advantage-200-years-new-ebook
- benign-effects-automation-new-evidence
- fiscal-impact-empowering-voters-tomorrow
- reflections-on-hayek
- assessing-impact-exchange-rate-movements
- uber-versus-taxi-driver-s-eye-view
- china-s-productivity-performance-revisited
- identities-and-unintended-effects-public-policies
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