Tuesday, 11 August 2015

The Trump Phenomenon

We are still well away from the next Presidential election yet we are in the midst of the race for the Presidency as the Republican contenders  struggle to gain momentum.

I will concentrate on the Republicans as the Democrats appear to have their contender already, Hillary Clinton is clearly the most 'wonkish' contender however she lost the Democratic primary last time because her political nous was lacking. We have yet to see any evidence she has improved in that regard.

It is all Donald Trump with regard to the Republicans. ( If you like polls and punditry then try Real Clear politics,)

I want to concentrate on something everybody appears to have missed. What happens when Trump eventually goes.
Trump at present is the front runner at around 24% at best. It is not a great lead and a low count only makes him the leader because there are so many candidates.

However Trump will mean a number of candidates will have to leave the race because they do not have the support and thus the money is drying up. The main question is where will those votes go to. If they go to another candidate that is close to Trump then they would overtake him in the polls and thus Trump will lose oxygen ans thus also publicity and he will eventually leave the race.

The main questions to answer are who will leave the race and who will benefit when they do?

I have no idea but the Republicans must be praying a reasonable bunch of candidates remain.