Bill Shorten is a very lucky man part two

Yesterday Dyson Heydon said he would not stand down as the head of the Royal Commission.
for a man who reputedly has a mind like a steel trap his reasoning was specious and pretty easy to refute. One wonders why he took so long to write it. It was so bad it has now has become a figure of fun.
Here is a reasonable take on the whole thing.Richard Ackland has a bit of fun.

For all the talk of integrity Heydon didn't show any at all.
Bill Shorten must be the luckiest man alive. Heydon's argument and the government's defence of him makes this increasingly a political event for any ordinary punter.
Any criticism it makes of Shorten he can shrug off as a biased decision.All futre people to appear before the RC can make the Heydon defence.

Looking at this in purely political terms the ALP never wanted Heydon to resign as he should have. They wanted him to continue so they can shrug it off as I have stated.

The next thing they want is a large swing in Canning but not large enough to win so Abbott continues as PM.

Bill Shorten has to be the luckiest Opposition leader ever opposing a first term Government!

Steve From Brisbane was RIGHT

Very early on Steve from Brisbane called the Present Government as the worst of all time.

I am afraid the events last friday confirmed this.

Just remember this.
They inherited this from the previous Government.

Deficit as a % of GDP        1.9

Receipts as a % of GDP     24.0
Payments as a % of GDP   25.9

The latest budget figures ,which will be changed when MYEFO comes out in December, are.

Deficit as a % of GDP      2.1
Receipts as a % of GDP   24.0
Payments as a % of GDP 25.9

So the deficit has blown out ( Primarily because nominal GDP is so weak ( because of weak Terms of Trade) however since they poo pooed this in Opposition they cannot now give this an excuse!

They are getting more in tax than the previous Government ever did and are now spending as much the previous Government did without a GFC in sight.
The Kouk on debt

I was wrong Steve and you were right!

Around the Traps 28/8/15

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Croaking Cassandra is now an adopted Aussie. No football or cricket so updating at leisure.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Andrew Elder on handy-andy
• Mark the Ballot on polling-update, essential, saturday-betting-market-update
• Ken Wolf on funding-health-part-2
• Ross Gittins on libs-deserve-share-of-reform-credit , dont-believe-all-youre-told-about-brackcreep, try-little-compromise-to-fix-budget
• Greg Jericho on youre-crazy-if-you-believe-labors-emission-cuts-would-cost-600-bn , chinas-slumping-economy-a-bigger-threat-to-australia-than-its-plunging-stock-market
• Croaking Cassandra on does-anyone-believe-core-inflation-is-about-to-rise, reforming-govenance-a-totally-secretive-reserve-bank, once-were-international-traders , how-much-foreign-stuff-do-we-use-in-our-exports , a-tale-of-two-regulators
• Peter Wells on dragging-australias-financial-reporting-regime-into-the-21st-century
• Bernard Mees on theres-more-to-super-fund-hestas-divestment-than-ethics
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-behind-longer-than-howard
• Max Chalmers on our-leaders-biggest-threat-isnt-boats-its-us-charlie-pickering-takes-australias-refugee , 13-simple-exciting-ways-lose-your-citizenship-tony-abbotts-team-australia
• The Piping Shrike on race
• Graham White on why-hockeys-call-for-tax-cuts-to-fuel-growth-is-a-flawed-argument
• Thom Mitchell on operation-border-farce-was-planned-workers-expense-says-union
• Peter Martin on one-rule-for-rich-double-standards-in-the-crackdown-on-welfare
• Brain McNair on news-corp-and-the-future-of-public-service-media

Northern America

• Brad De Long on none-of-concerns-about-inflation-employment-financial-stability-or-inequality-justify-raising-interest-rates-over-the-next-year
• Miles Kimball on larry-summers-the-fed-looks-set-to-make-a-mistake
• Calculated Risk on  catching-up-housing-starts , catching-up-existing-home-sales-in-july, comments-on-july-new-home-sales ,real-prices-and-price-to-rent-ratio-in-June, last-week-key-measures-show-low-inflation-in-July
• Kruggers on unnatural-obsessions
• Jos Bartman on mexicos-deadly-truths
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-dudley-puts-the-kibosh-on-september , fed-watch-the-right-and-wrong-arguments-for-september, fed-watch-hawkish-rumblings
• Eric Rauchway on trump-and-populism
• Daniel Larison on scowcroft-the-gop-and-the-nuclear-deal Thanks Brad
• Krishnadev Calamur on a-shooting-on-live-tv-in-roanoke-virginia
• Jeffrey Goldberg on obama-nuclear-iran-robert-satloff
• Timothy Taylor on states-as-laboratories-of-democracy , falling-labor-share-measurement-issues
• Menzie Chinn on katrina-plus-ten
• James Fallows on thinking-about-iran-thinking-about-israel-thinking-about-america
• Nick Rowe on king-of-deficits

Europe

• William Cline on back-from-the-brink-policy-reform-and-debt-relief-greece
• Eric Lonergan on how-labour-should-respond-to-corbyn
• Tony Yates on tsipras-being-decisive-not-irresponsible , lower-terminal-central-bank-rates-doesnt-mean-it-will-be-time-for-pqe
• Bahar Baser and Ahmet Ozturk on turkey-erdogan-is-forcing-his-people-to-take-sides
• Dimitrious Triantaphyllou on greek-elections-chance-for-consensus-or-further-fragment
• Oguz Alyanak on turkey-in-limbo
• Coppolla Comment on europes-shame

Asia

• James Hamilton on chinas-economic-slowdown
• Menzie Chinn on on-china-and-preventing-the-runs-of-august
• Philip Lane on china-growth-and-debt
• Bil Van Esveld on how-israeli-impunity-threatens-palestinian-children
• Maria Repnikova on is-this-china-chernobyl-moment
• Lare Aburamandan on gaza-war-israel-anniversary
• Linda Briskman on letter-from-iran-diplomacy-trumps-hostility
• James Fallows on the-normalization-of-iran-another-view-from-israel
• Tristan Dunning on is-peace-between-hamas-and-israel-possible-tony-blair-seems-to-think-so
• David Beckworth on how-to-create-chinese-economic-crisis-in-three-easy-steps
• Hrair Baliain on why-no-fly-zones-or-is-free-zones-are-not-solution-in-syria
• Leon Berkelmans on Economic-crisis-in-China-Were-not-there-yet
• Annaliese McAulife on Malaysia-braces-for-huge-anti-government-rallies
• Kruggers on 1998-in-2015

Wonk

• Croaking Cassandra on what-rates-of-return-do-major-us-firms-require-to-invest
• Roger Farmer on a-tale-of-two-natural-rates , animal-spirits-and-two-natural-rates
• Chris Dillow on techno-optimism-low-investment , nothing-to-fear-but
• Simon Wren-Lewis on a-sense-of-identity , the-day-macroeconomics-changed
• Roger Farmer on the-next-great-depression
• Steve Roth on predicting-recessions-the-easy-way-monetarists-mmt-and-the-money-stock
• David Glasner on in-defense-of-stigler
• Justin Fox on it-s-often-a-curse-to-be-blessed-with-commodities  Thanks Brad
• Alt M on monetary-rules-solving-the-knowledge-problem  Thanks Mark
• John Quiggin on why-price-control-doesnt-usually-work
• Antonio Fatas on a-third-scenario-for-stock-markets
• Robert Waldmann on how-many-equations-should-there-be-in-macroeconomic-models
• Noah Smith on the-macromicro-validity-tradeoff

General

• Simnon Chadwick on how-russia-has-devoted-its-energy-to-the-beautiful-game
• Joanna Parasszczuk on palmyra-isis-khalid-al-asaad-beheading-isis
• Tim Harford on the-myth-of-the-robot-job-ocalypse, when-it-comes-to-banking-can-we-have-too-much-of-a-good-thing
• Timothy Taylor on the-human-breast-milk-market, john-kenneth-galbraith-on-writing
• JPE Harper-Scott on art-of-plagiarism
• Justin Lewis on future-of-the-bbc-why-the-market-failure-model-is-a-flop-in-broadcasting
• Geraint Lewis on is-hawking-any-closer-to-solving-the-puzzle-of-black-holes
• doverbeach on the corruption of language

Climate

• David Appell on the-thing-is-hockey-stick-isnt-a-surprising-result , more-about-generating-hockey-sticks, latest-ocean-heat-content-numbers-show-global-warming-is-accelerating
• Artic sea ice blog on 2015-sipn-sea-ice-outlook-august-report, arms-race-and-a-storm
• Real Climate on lets-learn-from-mistakes
• John Abraham on adapting-to-air-pollution-china
• Roger Jones on a-message-from-our-sponsor
• Greg Laden on scientific-consensus-on-climate-change
• Science of Doom on renewables-v-grid-stability-as-wind-power-penetration-increases
• Climate Code Red on as-2015-smashes-temperature-records-its-hotter-than-you-think
• and Then Theres Physics on at-least-do-a-little-bit-of-background-research , calling-out-alarmism
• Dana1981 on heres-what-happens-try-to-replicate-contrarian-papers
• Rob Honeycutt on tracking the 2 C limit
• Howard Lee on you-cant-rush-the-oceans
• Kerry Emmanuel on climate-change-and-hurricane-katrina-what-have-we-learned
• Hotwhopper on arctic-sea-ice-extent-is-fourth-lowest-so-far-this -year
• Tamino on crowd-sourcing-cherries
• Andrew Glikson on how-to-make-sense-of-alarming-sea-level-rise-forecasts

Andrew Gelman ( Mainly Stats)

• the-belief-was-so-strong-that-it-trumped-the-evidence-before-them
• can-you-change-your-bayesian-prior
• vizzy-vizzy-vizzy-viz
• new-paper-on-psychology-replication
• a-political-sociological-course-on-statistics-for-high-school-students
• performing-design-calculations-type-m-and-type-s-errors-on-a-routine-basis
• Marc Bellemare on Metrics Monday: Statistical literacy
• Kaiser Fung on dumbing-by-numbers

Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics)

• the-bias-of-certain-elasticity-estimators
• the-distribution-of-ratio-of-correlated-normals
• biased-estimation-of-marginal-effects
• Tara Sinclair on big-data-economic-forecasts  Thanks Mark
• Menzir Chinn on to-log-or-not-to-log-part-iv

Dianne Coyle  (Quirky + Book Reviews)

• life-beyond-shareholder-value , phoolish-economists , other-peoples-money ,its-the-culture-stupid
• Mostly economics on book-review-history-of-corporate-finance  Thanks Jim
• Backreaction on embrace-your-5th-dimension Thank Steve from Brisbane and Jason
• nick allum om why-we-think-the-weather-affects-how-a-cricket-ball-swings-when-it-doesnt

Vox wonk

• consumer-spending-and-property-taxes
• what-general-public-know-about-monetary-policy
• three-questions-and-answers-about-finance-and-firms
• africa-fork-road-taking-or-disappointment-once-again
• learning-exporting-japanese-firm-level-evidence
• depreciations-without-exports
• central-bank-independence-and-after-great-recession
• competition-alone-will-not-eliminate-discrimination

Poll round up

More polls so another poll round up.

Here is :

• Mark the Ballot on the wonkish stuff and on essential
• Kevin Bonham on both wonkish stuff plus commentary

Not looking good for the coalition at all.

Q and A Much Ado about Nothing

I watched Qand A the other night ( or replay actually as I had a cricket meeting.)

I enjoyed the show and thought all the participants were interesting although Tony Windsor got to the boring stage quicker than the rest.

I have to say I completely missed the NAME of the tweeter. Not unexpectedly Katesy get his facts wrong again. It wasn't an anti-abbott tweet. It was anti-abbott name.

When I look at those damned tweets I just look at what is said like most viewers. I never look at the name of the tweeter.

I am not surprised this got passed whoever looks at which tweets to put on. You would be looking at the content not the name.

Indeed this raises the question what sort of person would look at the names of tweeters and why?


How to fix this up.

Get rid of the tweets. It is off-putting and doesn't do anything to enhance the show.

Update:

I see Greg Hunt is talking about the offensive tweer. He is as stupid and lazy as Katesy. The tweet was not offensive. It was the name of the tweeter! As I stated previously the person would have been looking at the tweet not the tweeter's name.


Further Update:

This has died a quick death probably for the reasons outlined.

The extremely impressive Katy Faust

Katy Faust was on Q and A recently and really made the show.
Gracious to a ll questioners and impressive with her knowledge of the area she specialises in.
The conversation did a fact check on her statements.HERE.

Hey not so fast. Katy Faust came back with her own fact check of sorts. HERE.

You can choose whom is right. You know where I stand.

The Ashes Fifth Test

Yet again we have a test where there is no contest.

Cook won the toss and bowled yet his bowlers wasted the opportunity.Australia got a good total and then bowled well. There was no fight in England and they got beaten easily.

I do not understand how bowlers can bowl well in one test and then bowl badly in the next. you expect some consistency by bowlers in test matches.
We saw no fight by batsmen in any of the test matches. once a team was down they were gone to gowings.

Being an ex-fast bowler I enjoyed the flurry of wickets in most tests. The batting for the most part was lamentable on both sides.

I think the wickets for the last three matches were excellent but much too dead for the first two.

I will write about the next ashes series and the possibilities a bit later.

Overall an ashes series enjoyable to watch.

Around the Traps 21/8/15

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on can-steven-joyces-confidence-be-taken-entirely-seriously, standard-and-poors-probably-wrong-on-new-zealand-banks , monetary-policy-transparency-us-style
• Mark the Ballot on polling-update-with-twist-of-west-wing , betting-market-update
• Alan Duncan on factcheck-qanda-are-a-lot-of-cafes-and-restaurants-closing-because-of-sunday-penalty-rates
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-no-instant-damage-after-shocking-week, canning-by-election-prospects-and-polls
• Ken Wolf on funding-health-part-1
• Cristy Clark on the-government-vs-the-environment-lawfare-in-australia
• Anna Olijnk on explainer-dyson-heydon-and-claims-of-apprehended-bias
• Antony Green on the-impact-of-nt-statehood-on-the-size-of-the-house-of-representatives
• Ross Gittins on we-cant-divorce-economy-from-environment, more-to-infrastructure-than-just-spending
• The Kouk on housing-affordability-should-include-interest-rates , be-careful-what-you-wish-for-in-the-canning-by-election
• Chris Lloyd on gay-marriage-rites
• The Piping Shrike on equality , leadership-watch-morrison-on-730
• The Conversation on factcheck-qanda-was-katy-faust-correct-on-same-sex-family-studies-and-kids-rights
• The Conversation on full-response-from-traditional-marriage-advocate-katy-faust
• Gabrielle Appellby and Heather Roberts on bias-and-the-black-letter-judge-who-is-dyson-heydon
• Nicole Lee on factcheck-is-ice-more-dangerous-and-addictive-than-any-other-illegal-drug
• John Quiggin on three-word-slogans

The Ashes

• Tony and the Boys on fifth-test-the-oval  Can we gain some respect?

Northern America

• Spencer England on why-is-productivity-so-weak
• David Beckworth on a-work-around-for-feds-knowledge-problem
• Stephen Hewitt on how-canadas-conservative-party-is-brazenly-playing-the-terrorism-card
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-some-thoughts-on-productivity-and-the-fed
• Nick Rowe on why-did-canadian-inflation-targeting-work-in-1996-but-fail-in-2008
• Kevin Drum on chart-of-the-day-heres-why-recovery-has-been-so-weak Thanks Mark
• Jared Bernstein and Richard Cogan on budget-deficits-growth-rate Thanks Brad
• Kruggers on pension-cutters-and-privatizers-oh-my
• New Deal Democrat on do-rising-child-care-costs-stagnant-wages-explain-the-decline-in-the-labor-force-participation-rate
• Ken Houghton on serious-question-janet-yellen-edition
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-fomc-minutes-give-no-clear-signal
• John Robertson on no-wage-change
• Marina Koren on women-army-ranger-military

Europe

• Simon Wren-Lewis on peoples-qe-and-corbyns-qe
• Tony Yates on corbynmaniacs-need-reminding-what-central-bank-independence-is-and-why-its-good , should-mark-carney-be-weighing-in-over-corbynomics, the-next-research-economist-advising-traders-to-get-onto-the-mpc-should-serve-gardening-leave-beforehand
• Coppolla comment on a-finnish-cautionary-tale
• Chris Dillow on the-c-word , corbynomics-meh
• Tim Harford on londons-turning
• Philip Lane on dont-blame-german-banks-for-the-irish-economic-crisis
• Karl Whelan on Presentation on the Irish economy
• Joseph Joyce on greeces-missing-drivers-of-growth
• Mean Squared Errors on except-for-greece-ecbs-special-rules Thanks Mark
• Sotirous  Zartaloudis on why-alexis-tsipras-has-called-a-snap-election-in-greece
• Georg Serafeim on tsipras-second-chance-greece-to-hold-elections

Asia

• Roger Farmer on somebody-at-pbc-blinked
• David Gardner on new-war-for-middle-east
• Barkely Rosser on what-is-chinese-economic-system
• Giorgo Shani on understanding-japan-collective-trauma
• Julian Simon on Hegemon-Wargaming-the-South-China-Sea.
• Lidia Khalil on While-West-panics-about-ISIS-Middle-East-is-fracturing
• Eliza Berlage and Michael Hopkin on new-calculation-suggests-chinas-greenhouse-emissions-have-been-overestimated
• Stephen Grenville on Indonesia-Do-tough-times-produce-good-economic-policy
• Elliot Abrams on egypt-sisi-terrorism-muslim-brotherhood

Wonk

• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-recent-experience-with-monetary-sovereignty
• Nick Rowe on the-efficiency-wage-case-for-maximum-wage-laws , good-shocks-bad-shocks-and-shocks-that-cause-a-monetary-coordination-failures
• Chris Dillow on inverting-the-rhetoric-of-inequality
• Twenty Cent Paradigm on stories-from-macro-wars Thanks Mark
• Robert Waldmann on romer-delong-and-krugman-on-solow-and-lucas, noah-smith-notes-a-puzzle, wren-lewis-on-romer-on-solow-on-lucas-sargent
• Simon Wren-Lewis on reform-and-revolution-in-macroeconomics
• Progrowth Liberal on cochrane-on-equity-risk-premium-and-macroeconomics
• John Quiggin on the-opportunity-cost-of-war-3, war-and-technological-progress
• David Glasner on susan-woodward-remembers-armen-alchian
• Noah Smith on have-interest-rates-actually-risen, more-financial-risk-equals-higher-returns-not-quite-, a-great-critique-of-rational-expectations
• Timothy Taylor on shifting-visions-of-good-job
• Croaking Cassandra on surely-we-deserve-better-than-this, what-price-should-be-put-on-proposed-government-projects
• Paul Romer on reactions-to-solows-choice
• Tony Yates on infinitely-short-and-not-variable

General

• Coppolla comment on never-mind-greece-look-at-venezuela
• Timothy Taylor on economics-of-information-overload
• Chris Dillow on ballroom-dancing-sapir-whorf
• Jillian Scudder on how-did-jupiter-and-saturn-form-the-answer-may-lie-with-the-humble-pebble
• Lorenzo on serfdom-versus-slavery , lenin-luxemburg-and-gorbachevs-failure-a-vladimir-rosa-and-mikhail-story, open-and-closed-state-systems-the-geography-of-regional-unification

Climate

• John Quiggin on green-jobs
• David Appell on arctic-sea-ice-extent-wont-be-setting-a-record-this-year , temperatures-this-el-nino-vs-1997-98-el-nino, 
• Bob Henson on whats new in tropical cyclone modelling
• Artic sea ice blog on jenga-july-2015 , jakobshavn-record-retreat, asi-2015-update-6-one-more-high
• Idiot tracker on gistemp-075c-hottest-july-in-record
• Tamino on hottest-month
• Rob Painting on A-Powerful-El-Nino-in-2015-Threatens-a-Massive-Coral-Reef-Die-off
• and Then Theres Physics on representative-concentration-pathways , very-likely-versus-extremely-likely , publication-bias
• Rojer Jones on bishop-takes-us-for-mugs-and-insults-china
• Ricky Rood on Ice Age 4
• Moyho on ushcn-again-adjustments-breakdown , ushcn-adjustments-case-study , noaa-says-july-hottest-month-ever
• Timothy Taylor on carbon-tax-practicalities-of-cutting-a-deal
• Hot Topic on antarctic-sea-ice-the-end-of-the-trend
• hot whopper on mid-august-enso-report-el-nino-still-strengthening
• Greg Laden on how-do-you-explain-judith-curry

Andrew Gelman ( Mainly Stats)

• macartan-humphreys-on-the-worm-wars
• soylent-1-5-black-beans-and-yoghurt
• data-analysis-assignments-for-bda-class
• aahhhhh-young-people
• that-was-easy
• plaig-non-wegman-edition
• John Quiggin on polls-and-punters-yet-again
• Tamino on survival-part-iii-the-program 
• Kaiser Fung on reporting-on-ferguson

Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics)

• econometric-society-world-congress
• Frances diebold on manski-on-uncertainty-in-official-statistics

Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)

• painting-by-numbers ,robots-for-the-people , accounts-and-holding-to-account, history-and-imagination, on-not-skipping-over-facts
• John Warhurst on book-review-santamaria-a-most-unusual-man

Vox wonk

• strength-dollar-and-emerging-markets-growth
• immigrants-impact-labour-markets-new-evidence
• wealth-and-income-distribution-new-theories-needed-new-era
• pricing-genius
• media-markets-and-institutional-change-evidence-protestant-reformation
• short-run-view-what-computers-do
• estimating-financing-gap-small-and-medium-sized-enterprises

The Canning Byelection

I do not believe in inventing the wheel so I will naturally outsource this to the one and only Kevin Bonham.

A great read as usual.

Q and A rocks

I had never watched Q and A until the controversy erupted. I have since then and it is a good program. all the programs except one have proved quite enjoyable viewing. The one that wasn't included Alan Jones, Say no more.
Last night Brendon O'Neil and Kate Faust really floored everybody else.
They were on fire.
The person who was really dad was Richard Di Natale the Greens leader. Until this moment he had been shown in a good light and had gotten the Greens back into the political contest.
last night he has actually really bad.
He made generalised comments and at times held views that had no evidence to back them up with.

Tony Jones as the person who makes the program is the perfect person for the role.

It does remind me somewhat of the very old Monday Conference which the Late Bob Moore was the frontman for.

The Curious case of Dyson Heydon

Dyson Heydon is in it. Richard Ackland tell s us about him.

His big problem is that he was due to give a speech at the Garfield Barwick lecture which was a Liberal party fundraiser. as Ben Eltham notes imagine the hue and cry from the government if Gillian Triggs was going to give a speech at an ALP fundraiser!!

There is a lot of irony here.

• Garfield Barwick was easily the most political judge ever to sit on the High Court.
• Heydon's explanation is one he does not accept from Union officials at the Royal Commission he is presiding over.

It is a measure of how deep in doggy doo doo Heydon is in when Tony Burke of all people can easily criticise him. As he said Heydon is either incredibly incompetent or very loose with the truth. Either way his position as Head of the Royal Commission is untenable.

If Dyson Heydon has the integrity everybody says he has then he will resign. If he hasn't got it then he won't resign.

We wil soon find out.

Bill Shorten is an incredibly lucky person. He can easily brush aside any criticisms made of him by the Royal Commission moreover the results are now tainted.

It is now a complete waste of money thanks to Dyson Heydon.

Update:
Dyson Heydon has now given a statement to the Royal Commission which raises more questions than it answers.
Dyson Heydon is either the most naive person on the planet or one of the most devious with one of the worst excuses.
He simply doesn't understand he doesn't understand HE has compromised his own royal commission.
no matter what he finds they will de drowned out by his incompetence.He has now gicven a leave pass to any corrupt Union official he has found out about!

Further Update:
Heydon has now released e-mails of his correspondence about the speech. He now says he simply did not pen the attachments which showed it was a fundraiser. All people who appear at the RC will now use the Heydon excuse. the RC is now officially cactus.
Lenore Taylor says it better than I. So is Michelle Grattan.

If the man doesn't resign he has no honour at all. I think he will.

Around the Traps 14/8/15

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on putting-the-exchange-rate-fall-in-historical-context , manufacturing-sector-employment , the-treasury-on-immigration , what-sort-of-people-get-new-zealand-work-visas , skilled-based-immigration-b, skills-based-immigration-d , new-zealand-credit-growth-in-recent-years, skills-based-migration-completing-the-alphabet
• Ross Gittins on dont-be-sure-lower-penalties-mean-more-jobs, our-poor-treatment-of-mental-illness-is-hurting-us
• Mark the Ballot on polling-update , morgan-poll
• Greg Jericho on its-nonsense-to-believe-more-flexibility-leads-to-greater-productivity , look-past-the-statistical-comedy-the-jobs-figures-are-actually-great-news , is-australia-stuck-in-a-new-normal-of-low-wages-growth
• Andrew Elder on mutually-assured-destruction , friends-on-other-side, five-points-from-last-nights-meeting
• Michael Harris on how-to-make-sense-of-big-scary-climate-costs
• Liz Minchin on what-does-australias-new-2030-climate-target-mean-for-the-local-coal-industry
• Pep Canadell on australias-post-2020-climate-target-not-enough-to-stop-2c-warming-experts
• The Piping Shrike on equality
• The Kouk on as-long-as-the-economy-stays-sluggish-fiddling-around-the-edges-will-not-help
• Lenore Taylor on why-tony-abbotts-climate-strategy-wont-neutralise-the-environmental-argument
• Nick Gruen on another-workaround-our-dysfunctional-legal-system
• Marc Hudson on tax-or-trade-the-war-on-carbon-pricing-has-been-raging-for-decades
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-more-trouble-for-coalition
• Ben Eltham on dyson-heydon-abbotts-attack-dog-tactic-turns-around-bite-him
• Michelle Grattan on royal-commissioner-finds-it-is-not-just-witnesses-that-can-have-a-credibility-problem
• David Peetz on workplace-reforms-would-hit-workers-outside-unions-hardest
• Roger Shanahan on Australia-should-bomb-Syria-because
• Frank Josko on australias-2030-climate-target-puts-us-in-the-race-but-at-the-back

Northern America

• Peter Beinart on the-surge-fallacy
• Bruce Webb on cbo-aug-7-2015-monthly-budget-review-for-july
• Spencer England on economic-cycles
• Michael Owyang on Should core Inflation be measured differently Thanks Mark
• Cecchetti and Schoenholtz on how-the-fed-will-tighten Thanks Mark
• Sage Stassel on endangered-species
• Marcus Nunes on charles-plosser-fomc-member-the-rates-will-have-to-go-up-sooner-rather-than-later-guy Thanks Brad
• Bruce Bartlett on will-donald-trump-crack-up-the-republicantea-party-alliance Thanks Mark
• JP Koning on how-many-bullets-does-bank-of-canada-have-left-in-its-chamber Thanks Mark
• Timothy Taylor on us-mergers-and-antitrust-in-2014
• Noah Smith on three-reasons-fed-can-wait-to-raise-rates

Europe

• Liam Delaney on brexit-and-ireland
• Eric Lonergran on a-simple-refutation-of-raising-the-inflation-target
• Tony Yates on helicopters-and-slippery-slopes
• Bill Mitchell on Ireland the quantity adjusted recovery
• David Andalfatto on is-germanys-trade-surplus-a-problem
• Simon Wren-Lewis on the-corbyn-phenomenon, german-self-interest
• Photis Lysandrou on three-myths-behind-case-for-grexit-destructive-analysis
• Juan Paez-Farrell on why-the-greek-bailout-will-not-last
• Chris Dillow on labours-dysfunctional-ideology
• Timothy Taylor on europe-when-macro-overshadows-micro

Asia

• Sarah Hyde on japans-way-of-remembering-world-war-ii-still-infuriates-its-neighbours
• Milton Osborne on Who-worries-about-the-Mekongs-future
• Roger Shanahan on Syria-Too-many-rebel-groups-spoil-the-broth
• Zeng Liu on china-economic-growth-miracle-slowdown Thanks Mark
• David Beckworth on impossible-trinity-deflationary-shocks
• Nader Habibi on irans-frozen-funds-how-much-is-really-there-and-how-will-they-be-used
• Jeffrey Goldberg on iran-israel-obama-kerry-jews
• Krisnadev Calamur on china-devalue-currency
• Abbas Milani on iran-deal-politics-rouhani-khamenei
• Brad De Long on in-which-i-once-again-bet-on-a-substantial-growth-slowdown-in-china
• Kruggers on china-bites-the-cherry , international-money-mania , china-2015-is-not-china-2010
• Menzie Chinn on evaluating-the-chinese-devaluation
• Nafis Alam on explainer-why-is-china-devaluing-its-currency
• Timothy Taylor on chinas-economic-growth-pause-or-trap
• Andrew Erickson on Dredging-fleet-shores-up-Beijings-position-in-South-China-Sea-and-beyond
• Christopher Pokarier on Abe-70th-anniversary-statement-History-politics-entangled
• Croaking Cassandra on china-currency-adjustments-etc
• Roger Farmer on somebody-at-pbc-blinked

Wonk

• Brad De Long on in-which-i-agree-in-part-and-dissent-in-part-with-paul-romers-narrative-of-the-intellectual-collapse-of-chicago-school-macro, we-always-thanked-robert-lucas-for-giving-us-a-monopoly-over-valuable-macroeconomics
• Paul Romer on what-went-wrong-in-macro-overview , what-went-wrong-in-macro-historical-details, solows-choice
• Kruggers on trash-talk-and-the-macroeconomic-divide, competitiveness-and-class-warfare
• 
  
• David Warsh on The Scotchman returns to the model Thanks Mark
• James Hamilton on opec-and-world-oil-supplies
• Simon Wren-Lewis on the-ethics-of-helicopter-money
• Carola Binder on macroeconomics-research-at-liberal-arts-colleges
• Chris Dillow on ambiguity-aversion-in-politics, fairness-decentralization-capitalism
• Noah Smith on tech-as-a-productivity-engine-remains-a-mystery, did-elon-musk-build-that
• Nick Rowe on interest-rate-control-as-beta-anachronism , a-question-for-beta-bankers, the-efficiency-wage-case-for-maximum-wage-laws
• Timothy Taylor on the-aftermath-of-libor-and-penny-shaving-attacks
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-gas-taxes-and-oil-subsidies-time-for-reform
• David Glasner on romer-v-lucas
• John Quiggin on are-natural-disasters-economic-disasters

General

• Tim Harford on how-to-level-the-playing-field
• Chris Dillow on the-london-paradox
• Pioa Riggirozzi on all-change-in-argentina-as-sun-sets-on-the-kirchner-era
• Robert Merkel on which-is-more-vulnerable-to-viruses-and-hackers-windows-10-or-mac-os-x
• Andrew James on sinister-moves-to-bar-reporters-as-football-clubs-move-media-coverage-in-house
• Andrew Whitehouse on dont-panic-the-internet-wont-rot-childrens-brains
• Lorenzo on frustrated-status-and-bigotry

Climate

• Andrea Thompson on how-this-el-nino-is-isnt-like-1997
• Tamino on russian-roulette
• Jaci Brown, Andrew Watkins and Madelaine Cahill on odds-keep-rising-for-a-big-el-nino-in-2015
• David Appell on obamas-clean-power-plan-prevents-00004c-of-warming , how-to-solve-coal-problem-tomorrow
• Fergus Green on Australias-renewable-energy-wars-Why-it-pays-to-go-green-unilaterally , Australias-renewable-energy-wars-How-to-win-the-argument-for-green-power
• The Science of Doom on renewables-iv-wind-forecast-horizon-backups
• Samantha Page on glacial-pace-now-means-very-very-fast
• John Whitehead on maybe-john-can-get-a-recommendation-to-serve-on-the-council-of-economic-advisors-1 Thanks Mark
• Peter Pavlasek on history-of-temperature-scales-metrology
• John Quiggin on eroei-batteries-now-included , solar-pv-now-with-grid-backup
• Artic Sea ice blog on a-wetter-and-warmer-arctic
• Idiot tracker on wherein-i-settle-renewablesnuclear-are-settled-for-all -time
• Greg Radley on update-on-climate-models-and-heat-waves
• Kevin Trenberth on is-the-global-warming-hiatus-over

Andrew Gelman ( Mostly statistics)

• dan-kahan-doesnt-trust-the-turk
• fitting a multilevel model
• ask-a-curmudgeon
• its-hard-to-replicate-that-is-duplicate-analyses-in-sociology
• reprint-of-observational-studies-by-william-cochran-followed-by-comments-by-current-researchers-in-observational-studies
• hey-dont-trust-anything-coming-from-the-tri-valley-center-for-human-potential
• Kaiser Fung on statbusters-are-back-taking-on-robots-that-hire-people
• Tamino on survival, survival-part-ii , survival-part-iii-the-program

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• symmetry-and-skewness
• classic-data-visualizations

Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)

• Whose Island, a-tale-of-modern-russia-and-london
• Marc Bellamare on books that have changed my thinking

Vox wonk

• measuring-environmental-benefits-electric-vehicles
• article/effect-costs-operating-formally-new-experimental-evidence
• lessons-cyprus-did-not-make-it-greece
• mass-deworming-development-s-best-buy
• external-bond-issuance-emerging-markets
• sovereign-debt-repayments-evidence-seniority
• greek-debt-sustainability-devil-tails
• return-gold-sterling-dollar-rate-1920s
• iceland-greece-and-political-hectoring
• still-vulnerable-eurozone-s-small-and-medium-sized-banks
• pragmatic-approach-external-debt-write-down-germany-s-debts-1953
• consumption-and-transfers-evidence-italian-earthquakes
• low-inflation-eurozone

The Government's polling blues

The Government is still polling badly.

For stat wonks we have Mark the Ballot:

• polling-update
• morgan-poll

And then we have the inimitable Kevin Bonham for both stats and incisive comment.

Thus we know The Government has if anything deteriorated lately. This is truly remarkable and almost unheard of for a FIRST TERM  Government.

Why is this so as Julius Sumner Miller would have said.

One thing that stands out like the proverbial shag on a rock is people are no longer taking what anything the Government says seriously.

Two examples from yesterday

Abbott adopts a principled position on same sex marriage ( Which I support) but then does in in his party room in an unprincipled way which can be viewed by anyone. At least when Howqrd did it with the Republican debate it was not easy to see!

Abbott claims the ALP will adopt a price on carbon of $200. This is hyperbole overdrive and makes any statement by him hard to accept.

Being sneaky and loose with the truth is a very bad combination.

If you are a gambler ( and remember it is a sin) then I agree with the Kouk.

The Trump Phenomenon

We are still well away from the next Presidential election yet we are in the midst of the race for the Presidency as the Republican contenders  struggle to gain momentum.

I will concentrate on the Republicans as the Democrats appear to have their contender already, Hillary Clinton is clearly the most 'wonkish' contender however she lost the Democratic primary last time because her political nous was lacking. We have yet to see any evidence she has improved in that regard.

It is all Donald Trump with regard to the Republicans. ( If you like polls and punditry then try Real Clear politics,)

I want to concentrate on something everybody appears to have missed. What happens when Trump eventually goes.
Trump at present is the front runner at around 24% at best. It is not a great lead and a low count only makes him the leader because there are so many candidates.

However Trump will mean a number of candidates will have to leave the race because they do not have the support and thus the money is drying up. The main question is where will those votes go to. If they go to another candidate that is close to Trump then they would overtake him in the polls and thus Trump will lose oxygen ans thus also publicity and he will eventually leave the race.

The main questions to answer are who will leave the race and who will benefit when they do?

I have no idea but the Republicans must be praying a reasonable bunch of candidates remain.

Big Scary climate costs?

Steve from Brisbane beat me to it. Lenore Taylor also weighs in.

the only other thing I would add is saying a costing based on a fixed price of $27 and going up is the same as a floating price which is more than half that is a bit stupid.

It shows either the person doesn't understand basic modelling or they think the price on carbon is exactly the same.  Whoopsy.

The Ashes debacle fourth Test

What more can be said!
I do not understand why in the FOURTH test Australian batsman still have no technique to a moving ball. whether it is in the air or off the pitch.
I teach my U/16s to get the head over the ball but this is beyond our test batsman!

In three of the four tests thus far we have had batsman getting out to a moving ball and bowlers who give away runs. There appears little fight with either our batsmen or bowlers.
England have top order problems but we have no plan to exploit that!

Moreover no selection escapades make sense. We had to win at Trent Bridge. The test would last last five days so you had to have bowlers to take wickets so what did we do? Drop an all-rounder and bring in a batsman?

I had to go shopping with my wife last Thursday night . I got an excited call from my eldest son after three wickets were down. By the time I got home 5 were down!

An incredible test where I was simply embarrassed. Can we please gain some respect at the oval

P.S.
I wonder how much Clarke's injury contributed to his dreadful form. He did appear to me not be be straight as possible and his head not upright as it should be.

Around the Traps 7/8/15

It is time for Around the Traps again.
I will attempt to update on Sunday however be warned I am still in a state of shock from the ineptness at Trent Bridge


Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on should-the-statutory-objective-for-monetary-policy-be-changed , dairy-another-day-another-price-slump , oops, disclosure-requirements-some-anomalous-laws, wheeler-and-his-critics
• Ross Gittins on mainstream-economics-remains-highly-useful , digital-disruption-more-pros-than-cons, its-official-labour-market-is-different
• Rodrigo Praino on bishop-resignation-wont-end-impact-on-coalition
• Alan Fels on wanted-an-independent-umpire-to-set-and-enforce-clear-parliamentary-entitlement-rules
• Mark the Ballot on the-slide-continues , betting-markets
• The Political Sword on winter-winds-wind-farms-and-hot-air
• The Kouk on yet-more-good-news-on-the-economy-an-rba-tightening-bias-soon, why-raising-the-medicare-levy-is-much-fairer-than-hiking-gst , theaussie-dollar-on-the-rise , the-perplexing-labour-force-data-good-or-bad
• John Quiggin on is-an-emissions-trading-scheme-a-carbon-tax , score-one-for-the-planet
• Andrew Elder on losing-it-1-spearhead
• Ben Eltham on bishop-imbroglio-highlights-uncomfortable-patterns-tony-abbotts-leadership
• Peter West on The Chopper has landed but where does that leave us
• John Buchanan on enterprise-contracts-echo-take-it-or-leave-it-world-of-workchoices
• The Conversation on change-penalty-rates-reform-work-agreements-urges-productivity-commission-experts-respond
• Ken Coghill on new-speaker-must-lead-the-way-in-restoring-parliamentary-ethics-and-trust
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-bad-bishop-off-board
• Michael De Percy on turnbulls-plan-to-speed-up-the-delivery-of-australias-broadband-network
• Shahar Buria and Dashiel Lawrence on australia-and-israel-an-ambiguous-relationship-invites-fresh-examination
• Antony Green on 2016-prospects-for-the-abbott-government-in-south-australia

The Ashes

• Tony and the boys on fourth-test-trent-bridge  Say it was a dream please!

Northern America

• Barkley Rosser on from-59-31-to-32-58%
• Jeffrey Goldberg on adam-schiff-iran-nuclear
• Kruggers on cap-and-trade-and-polarization
• Environmental economics on cap-and-trade-and-polarization-nytimescom Thanks Mark
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-gearing-up-for-employment-day
• Timothy Taylor on the-us-financial-sector-in-long-run
• Emma Green on russell-moore-christian-freaks
• Norm Ornstein on why-the-gop-needs-to-brace-for-the-road-block-ahead
• Jeffrey Goldberg on john-kerry-interview-iran-nuclear-deal
• Joshua Gans on Top Trump: The Game theory of the Trump end game
• David Beckworth on a-closer-look-at-decline-in-government-expenditures
• Calculated Risk on july-employment-report-comments ,public-and-private-sector-payroll-jobs-under-various-presidents
• Menzie Chinn on global-warming-is-a-total-and-very-expensive-hoax

Europe

• Kevin O'Rourke on j-a-hobson-on-the-eurozone-crisis-sort-of
• Coppola comment on in-defence-of-conflicted-ecb
• Tony Yates on would-not-print-money-for-a-corbyn-cabinet , the-peoples-public-institution-bonfire , super-thursdaymansion-house-redux
• Chris Dillow on is-corbynomics-inflationary , blairite-optimism
• Joseph Joyce on the-challenges-of-the-greek-crisis
• Brad De Long on highlighted-europe-from-the-financial-crisis-to-the-great-recession-to-the-lesser-depression-to-the-greater-depression
• Kenneth Rogoff on greece-debt-overhang Thanks Brad
• Daniel Davies on 2010-and-all-that-relitigating-the-greek-bailout-part-2 Thanks Brad
• Philip Lane on a-roadmap-for-reform-of-the-euro-zone
• David Andolfatto on is-germanys-trade-surplus-a-problem
• Jared Bernstein on dynamic-scoring-in-action-unwarranted-certainty Thanks Mark
• Mean squared Errors on greek-economy-how-terrible-was-it-part-2 , schaubles-ticking-clock Thanks Mark
• Chris Bertram on britains-new-government-2
• Croaking Cassandra on greeces-impressive-economic-performance
• David Beckworth on the-monetary-superpower-strikes-again

Asia

• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-were-chinese-regulators-responsible-for-the-recent-stock-market-bubble
• Noah Smith on iran-is-weak
• Johannes Makar on persecution-lurks-for-converts-from-islam-in-egypt
• Peter Beinart on iran-nuclear-deal-nazi-germany
• Amrita Mahli on malaysia-in-turmoil-as-pm-focuses-on-survival

Wonk

• Kruggers on freshwaters-wrong-turn-wonkish, sarcasm-and-science
• Peter Dorman on feynman-has-something-to-say-about-is-consistent-with
• Chris Dillow on creating-markets , back-to-pre-capitalism , the-sad-death-of-free-market-pessimism
• Paul Romer on stigler-conviction-vs-feynman-integrity Thanks Brad
• Robert Waldmann on when-did-freshwater-school-adopt-the-'adversarial'-role , a-question-for-paul-romer, what-wouldnt-be-dynamic-stochastic-general-equilibrium-model
• Noah Smith on translating-paul-romer, not-a-dsge-model
• Simon Wren-Lewis on is-deficit-fetishism-innate-or-contextual , a-way-forward-for-centre-left-on-deficits, the-bank-helicopter-money-and-fiscal-conservatism
• Nick Gruen on hayek-left-right-and-centre , towards-a-post-capitalist-or-a-post-wtf-world
• Croaking Cassandra on why-have-interest-rates-fallen-so-much
• Eric Lonergan on a-brief-reply-to-bank-underground
• Timothy Taylor on occupational-licensing-and-its-discontents , how-automation-affect-labor-markets
• John Croucher on can-good-teaching-be-measured-and-should-it-be-rewarded
• Nick Rowe on on-defining-recession

General

• Noah Smith on is-radical-leftism-trap-for-minorities , star-trek-economy-and-life-after-the-dismal-science , argentina-is-land-of-great-economists-awful-economy
• Tim Harford on the-rewards-for-working-hard-are-too-big-for-keyness-vision
• David Elstein on red-alert-for-bbc-response-to-enders-analysis
• Jam Semmelrogen on explainer-the-difference-between-asylum-seekers-refugees-and-economic-migrants
• Jenny Chen on why-depression-needs-a-new-definition
• John Quiggin on the-generation-game-and-the-1-per-cent
• Brandon Garrett on coerced-confessions-and-jailhouse-snitches-why-the-death-penalty-is-so-flawed

Climate

• Dana Nuccitelli on climate-models-are-even-more-accurate-than-you-thought
• Ricky Rood on Ice Age 3. The perils of science and the  media
• Dan Satterfield on new-paper-shows-global-climate-model-errors-are-significantly-less-than-thought
• and Then Theres Physics on a-better-comparison , 95%-attribution-and-all-that , its-more-difficult-with-physical-models , personal-attacks-on-met-office-scientists
• Bill Laurance on the-scariest-part-of-climate-change-isnt-what-we-know-but-what-we-dont-know
• John Quiggin on ccs-a-fiction-that-has-outlived-its-usefulness, eroei
• Richard Matear and Andrew Lenton on reducing-emissions-alone-wont-stop-climate-change-new-research
• Brandon Shollenberger on richard-tol-s-gremlins-continue-undermine-his-work
• Isaac Held on tropical-tropospheric-warming-revisited-part-3
• John Abraham on statistics-says-long-term-global-warming-trend-continues
• Greg Laden on the-alleged-slowdown-in-global-warming-didnt-happen-new-research-shows
• Whats up with That Watts on manns-hockeystick-in2015
• Sharon Kelly on key-greenhouse-gas-study-may-have-systematically-understated-leaks-new-research-shows
• Roz Pidcock on most-influential-climate-papers
• Science of doom on renewables-ii-solar-and-free-lunches
• Bart Verheggen on PBL-survey-scientific-consensus-global-warming-driven-greenhouse-gases
• Tony Markvart on do-we-need-a-solar-power-technology-breakthrough
• Tamino on vanighing-ice, accelerating-glacier-shrinkage
• John McAneney on ice-core-dating-corroborates-tree-ring-chronologies
• Hotwhopper on icymi-theres-no-stopping-rise-in-surface-temperatures
• David Appell on global-sea-ice-extent-currently-3rd-lowest
• Andrew Gilkson on how-to-make-sense-of-alarming-sea-level-forecasts

Andrew Gelman ( Mostly stats)

• the-plagiarist-next-door-strikes-back-different-standards-of-plagiarism-in-different-communities
• pro-publicas-new-surgeon-scorecards
• how-hamiltonian-monte-carlo-works
• when-does-bayes-do-the-job
• classifying-causes-of-death-using-verbal-autopsies
• Tamino on statistics-can-be-tricky
• Noah Smith on the-backlash-to-backlash-against-p values

Genial Dave Giles (Econometrics)

• august-reading
• estimating-elasticities-all-over-again
• the-h-p-filter-and-unit-roots
• Marc Bellemare on Data Cleaning
• Menzie Chinn on to-log-or-not-to-log-part-i, to-log-or-not-to-log-part-ii, to-log-or-not-to-log-part-iii
• Tim Harford on worming-our-way-to-the-truth

Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)

• who-benefits-from-e-books, the-price-of-everything-including-women
• Frances Woolley on or-perhaps-womens-offices-actually-are-colder
• Shane Maloney , Andrea Fuller and Duncan Mitchell on why-is-it-so-cold-in-here-setting-the-office-thermostat-right-for-both-sexes

Vox wonk

• determinants-bank-s-sovereign-debt-home-bias
• windfall-income-and-healthcare-choices
• customers-and-investors-framework-financial-institutions
• trends-and-cycles-china-s-macroeconomy
• monetary-policy-zero-lower-bound
• article/learning-about-job-search-tackling-long-term-unemployment
• risk-taking-and-firm-growth
• learning-about-job-search-tackling-long-term-unemployment
• public-sector-inefficiency-and-firm-productivity-italy
• creating-formal-sector-jobs-low-income-countries
• asset-managers-and-sifi-status
• systemic-risk-crises-and-macroprudential-regulation
• currency-changes-and-contracts-lessons-greece
• what-really-drives-public-debt
• systemic-risk-research-and-policy-agenda
• exchange-rate-appreciations-and-growth
• coercive-trade-policy