Austerity is crap AGAIN

We all know that if Austerity is imposed on an economy it will make the economy worse don't we?

Well today Simon Wren-Lewis examines the costs of imposing austerity on an economy.

In the article he draws on Alan Taylor's seminal piece which I had in Around the Traps last Friday.
Kevin O'Rourke talks about when austerity is needed.

Read and then weep at why politicians follow zombie ideas at the cost of people becoming unemployed.

When oh when will people learn that the best and only time to impose austerity policies is when the economy is doing well. Keynes only pointed this out in 1936!!

Leave supporting austerity to fact free people such as those at Catallaxy!

Van the Man

How there ever been a greater singer/songwriter than Van the Man?

I don't think so.

Here he is with two of his best

first Domino

and then Into the Mystic

Castle. Who is Kate Beckett ? update

Before I start.

For any Castle fans writing on the castlewalls is a must read. She writes beautifully and even when I disagree with her I still love reading her.
Go here to read what people are feeling about the series and what may eventuate.
Then go here  to join The Squab and The Quail HATERS ANONYMOUS membership roster. 
President Danny G Superstar!!  This is about the episode which will never ever be NAMED!

Okay the main reason for this update is that the wall is cobblers.

Go to the very first three episodes of Castle.

We see our Kate very angry about married men who have affairs with women with no disregard for the consequences.

Castle immediately writes that Nikki Heat was badly hurt ( emotionally) in her life.

This was to do with their second case where a married man was promising to leave his wife and join his lover in a relationship. He didn't.

This implies Our Kate has had an affair with a married man. We do  know she is prim and proper so she would not known at first  he was married but she found out.

When confronted he swore to her he was leaving his wife and family. She didn't like this at all but in the end it was of course , as usual, all lies. She was flung aside and made to feel as just another 'conquest'.

We do know she is a sucker for the lies made by people who want to mess with her head.

Three of the most transparent liars, Meredith, Vaughn and Stack, all mess with her head when any normal person would have easily seen the lies for what they were.

The last three episodes now make sense.

Why would any normal woman think Castle is not enormously in love with her

• He tried to take a bullet for her at the funeral.
• He waited four years for her.
• He came back and was with her when she is standing on a bomb and is very likely to be killed. He is saying he cannot and will not  live on this world without her.

BUT to a woman who woman who was  scorned ( remember the Nikki Heat book launch) this is all meaningless.

She sees him preferring to play an game instead of having sex with her. She begins to think Castle is getting sick of her.

It brings back memories of her being rejected before.

Then Vaughn ,a blatant liar, gets into her head about the Caskett relationship. This simply exacerbated doubts started by that other blatant liar Meredith.

Stack gets into head head about her ability and her job despite having lied blatantly about several parts of that investigation.

This leads her to the job offer that clearly she has never thought through properly. After All if this super agency is so red hot why couldn't they solve the murder it took her team a day to solve.

Hence it was this affair that leads to all the doubts now.

Her relationships before Castle are all relationships that were never going to work.

Sorensen was with the FBI and would transferred hither and thither. She was never going to follow him.

Deming was more of a whim and an attempt to make Castle jealous.

Josh was a prat who was all over the place. Again a 'normal' relationship was never on the cards.

The Watershed to me is Our Kate finally coming to terms with all this. She now understands what family means, what her home is  and this leads to her understanding how important Castle is.

This is why she chooses the swings to meet.

It has ameliorated his anger previously and she is hoping it will again. She has to say sorry for her actions.

She approaches the swings very positive but thinks Castle will break up with her given his facial expression and his attitude.

Then he proposes. She is not expecting that at all!!

POSTSCRIPT

Some people have asked me if the Valentine's gift and the birthday present negates all this.

In fact it adds to the argument.

Beckett does both things and they are a huge thing for her to do and show how deep her love is for Castle BUT the doubts are always around. It doesn't matter how generous Castle is in his appreciation. It is just like the examples that have already been shown of his love for her.
Once Beckett gets doubts they grow because of this previous relationship with the married man!!!
We must remember Our Kate is an emotional 'bimbo'. This is hard to contemplate because she is clearly an intelligent woman but this contradiction is part of her character.

Further Postscript

This relationship with with the married man explains why Beckett is such a fervent 'one and done'girl.

The 'emotional bimbo' angle explains why she took over a year to realise there might be a contradiction between the public and private personas of Castle.
It also explains why she is so insistent Castle doesn't know her and she is right!!

It also explains why she is a glass half empty gal.

Whoopsy mandatory clip of Castle and Coldplay

Around the Traps 19/7/13

Time for Around the Traps again.
The original place for the best blogging articles of the week and the BEST!!

Simon Wren-Lewis and Noah Smith were on fire this week.

updates on the week-end.

All done now!


Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ross Gittins on sorry-productivity-isnt-almost-everything, return-to-surplus-less-urgent-as-economy-slows
• Mumble on is_tony_toast, do_men_vote_labor_and_women_liberal, capitulation_and_termination,electorates_by_2010_swing
• Kathryn Crosby on come-back-again-kevs-just-crazy
• Peter Martin on mostly-false-fact-checking-coaltions- carbon- tax -costing, whats-difference-between-carbon-tax-and-ETS
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-and-seat-betting-watch-16 july
• Mark the Ballot on when-models-fail-us
• The pollbludger on bludgertrack-50-1-49-9-to-coalition
• John Quiggin on the-return-of-the-ets, rent-seeking-rampant,is-there-a-solution-to-the-refugee-problem
• Brian Banisch on rudds-emissions-trading-play
• Harry Clarke on big-deal-rudd-repeals-carbon-tax-one-year-early
• Andrew Elder on sweetening-base
• The Ashes , Second test with Tony the Teacher!!
• Andrew Elder on my-review-of-stalking-of-julia-gillard and then Mr Denmore
• Simon Jackman on watching the Liberal leadership betting markets 
• John R Walker on on-mr-rudds-multitude-of-policy-positions-or-syntax-without-semantics

Northern America

• Jared Bernstein on checking-in-on-the-taylor-rule-and-the-fed, taylor-the-taylor-rule-and-marsupials, when-guidance-is-misguided-seek-new-guidance
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy and fed-watch-time-to-move-on, fed-watch-bernanke-takes-a-dovish-stance, fed-watch-changing-the-mix-not-level-of-accommodationl
• Menzie Chinn on what_were_they-thinking, slow_2013q2_growth
• Calculated Risk on key-measures-show-low-inflation-in-june
• Mark Thoma on on-the-folly-of-wage-cuts-in-a-recession
• Kruggers on the-paradox-of-flexibility, obamacare-is-the-rights-worst-nightmare
• The admirable David Glasner on bhide-and-phelps-v-reality
• Brad De Long on what-i-wish-that-i-had-said-on-the-foreign-affairs-conference-call
• Calculated Risk on janet-yellen-for-fed-chair Kruggers agrees

Asia

• nuttin

Europe

• ECBwatchers on the-trichet-doctrine-and-the-separation-between-standard-and-non-standard-measures
• Simon Wren-Lewis on the-eurozones-founding-mistake

Wonk

• Robert Waldeman on a-quote-from-samuelson-and-solow-1960 Thanks Mark
• Noah Smith onjapans-stagnation-demand-side-or-supply-side then read
• Kruggers on wage-price-flexibility-in-a-liquidity-trap-again-again-again
• and then Noah again
• Mark Thoma on frbsf-economic-letter-the-path-of-wage-growth-and-unemployment
• Menzie Chinn on assessing_the_trilemma 
• Lord Keynes on moggridge-on-keyness-theory-of.-probability,a-classification-of-types-of-probability, keyness-interval-probabilities
• Simon Wren-Lewis on fiscal-backing, what-recessionl and unemployment-output-gap-and-wage-flexibilityl
• Mike Konzal on mirowski-vacuum-and-obscurity-current-economics
• Mark Thoma on responses-evoution-theory-in-economics-and-the-paradox-of-flexibility (heaps of links)

General

• Kruggers on there-is-no-true-unemployment-rate
• Simon Wren-Lewis on behaving-like-luddites
• Livio De Matteo on crime-and-macroeconomics
• Noah Smith on what-does-it-even-mean-to-believe-something , peak-oil-lives, asset-price-inflation-is-not-inflation, how-normal-people-see-macroeconomics, the-hard-money-people-throw-gene-fama-under-a-bus
• Robert Waldeman on show-me-the-model, finally-i-disagree-with-paul-krugman
• Brad De Long on quantitative-easing-once-again-monday-hoisted-from-comments-weblogging,elizabeth-anderson-friedrich-von-hayek-says-those-who-have-thought-it-through-understand-they-deserve-their-wealth-full-stop
• Progrowth liberal on rewriting-taylor-rule
• Macroblog on commodity-prices-and-inflation-the-perspective-of-firms
• Lord Keynes on herbert-hoover-myths

Brian Banisch ( climate)

• pine-island-glacier-spawns-a-giant-iceberg
• Menzie Chinn on its_been_a_hot_July
• Lord Keynes on is-long-term-climate-non-ergodic
• Harry Clarke on mortality-costs-of-chinese-air-pollution

Andrew Gelman (Statistics)

• forward-causal-inference-is-about-estimation-reverse-causal-inference-is-about-model-checking-and-hypothesis-generation
• priors
• a-poll-that-throws-away-data
• stop-and-frisk-statistics
• data-to-use-for-in-class-sampling-exercises
• youll-get-a-high-type-s-error-rate-if-you-use-classical-statistical-methods-to-analyze-data-from-underpowered-studies
• how-big-is-your-chance-of-dying-in-an-ordinary-play
• prior-distributions-on-derived-quantities-rather-than-on-parameters-themselves
• what-we-are-studying
• Normal Deviate on lost-causes-in-statistics-ii-noninformative-priors thanks Mark
• Kaiser Fong on how-to-consume-big-data, welcome-message, causal-thinking
• Good Stats Bad Stats on retirement stats and dementia and diabetes causes people to skip breakfast

Dave Giles (Econometrics)

• vintage-years-in-econometrics-the-1950s

Quirky

• The highly satisfying Frances Woolley on satisfaction
• Dianne Coyle on political-bubbles 
• Paul Fritjers on is-paying-for-votes-really-a-bad-thing

Voxwonk

• redesigning-ecb
• pseudo-flexible-exchange-rate-regimes
• what-long-term-impact-incarcerating-juveniles
• global-race-inventors
• going-beyond-mystery-italy-s-price-competitiveness-indicators
• asymmetric-oil-fuel-conflict
• when-is-the-time-for-austerity
• supranational-supervision-how-much-and-whom
• does-education-lead-more-innovation

Krugman Vs Noah Smith on Japan & a Liquidity Trap

Exciting times.

Noah Smith wrote about Japan here.

This brought out Paul Krugman to explain the consequences of a wage-price-flexibility-in-a-liquidity-trap-again-again-again

Noah Smith of course then replied. Check out the comments in particular.

I feel this debate will continue a while yet and if so I will update but this shows the blogosphere at its best.
(Simon Wren-Lewis has been the prime person behind recent debates)

Here is an important topic and there is a good and robust discussion about the subject.

I like both these writers however on this topic I think Kruggers has the advantage.

Castle & Coldplay

Castle comes back on TV tonight in Sydney so I am celebrating.

What do you get when you combine the greatest series ever written with the greatest song ever written?

Emotional Ecstasy!!


Danny G Superstar and Our Tony A class I hope you like it!

Around the Traps 12/7/13

It is time for Around the Traps this week.

updated for Saturday and Ricardian Ambivalence is back
now updated for Sunday. Wow Mark Thoma and I read very similar articles!!

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie.Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ed Butler on kevins-here-to-dumb-it-down and gordon's thoughts as well
• Kathryn Crosby on i-see-you-sam-shakin-that-rudd
• Mark the ballot has weekly-aggregation-labor-on-505-per-cent
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-and-seat-betting-watch ,new-not-poll-added-tas-seats-at-federal-election
• The Pollbludger on bludgertrack-50-5-49-5-to-labor
• The Piping Shrike on unleashed
• Mumble on the_necessary_condition_for_re-election, two_weeks_on, carbon_tax_dumped_not_really
• Ingolf on quite-a-show
• Mr Denmore on moving-forward
• Katesy is ironic without realising it!
• Ricardian Ambivalence is back from blog holiday and says june-jobs-sets-up-for-august-rba-cut
• Mark the Graph with employment-stats-for-june and grogs gamut with the same
• Harry Clarke on plain-packaging-effective
• Robert Merkel on has-regulation-really-gotten-out-of-control-under-ruddgillard and productivity-and-australian-management

Northern America

• Kruggers on that-terrible-taper, the-monetary-debate-enter-chewbacca
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy's fed-watch-on-that-september-tapering, fed-watch-from-minutes-to-bernanke, fed-watch-friday-afternoon-fed-blogging
• Chris Mai on state-and-local-jobs-stuck-in-a-deep-hole Thanks Mark
• Brad De Long on the-largest-and-most-rapid-shift-in-expected-us-monetary-policy-since-1994-the-largest-and-most-rapid-contractionary-shift-since-1981
• Mark Thoma on the-state-of-us-health-aint-so-good
• Carola Binder on divided-fed-broken-models

Japan/China

• Barkely Rosser on will-there-be-major-chinese-crash

Europe

• Simon Wren-Lewis on an-argument-for-forward-guidance-in-uk
• Dianne Coyle on statistical-literacy-for-schools
• Kruggers on more-on-not-so-miserable-france
• Jonathon Portes on george-osborne-tax-pledge-bad-economics Thanks Mark

Wonk

• Lord Keynes on lars-p-syll-on-probability-and-economics, bibliography-on-keyness-theory-of-probability
• Owen Zidar on learning-from-inflation-experiences Thanks Brad
• Michael Bauer & Glenn Rudebusch (FRBSF)on What-caused-the-decline-long-term-us-government-bond-yields  Thanks Mark
• Menzie Chinn on inflation_ and_debt
• Simon Wren-Lewis on economic-history-and-krugmans-crib-sheet,the-two-arguments-why-zero-lower-bound-matters
• Chris Dillow on why-study-classical-economic-thought
• Brad De Long on gavin-kennedy-and-jeff-weintraub-on-adam-smiths-behavioral-economics-and-moral-philosophy
• David Glasner on hawtrey-on-the-keynesian-explanation-of-unemployment
• Lars Christensen on the-young-keynes-was-a-monetarist Thanks Brad

General

• Noah Smith on do-inflationistas-really-believe-what-they-say?
• Kruggers as well political-inflationistas
• Nick Rowe weighs in the-inflationistas-are-our-friends-and-inside-and-outside-inflationistas
• Mark Thoma on government-consumption-versus-government-investment
• Tim Harcourt on the-need-for-less-speed
• Lord Keynes on the-great-depression-in-europe-real-gdp, mises-and-keynes-on-probability
• Kruggers on urp-versus-derp
• Dianne Coyle on unfinished-business-global-governance, lessons-from-the-past, putting-people-in-economic-theory
• Nick Rowe on the-trade-cycle-debt-is-trade
• Noah Smith on michael-linds-mercantilist-critique
• Peter Dorman on the-political-economy-of-central-bank
• Liam Delaney on behavioural-economics-and-public-policy

Brian Banisch (Climate)

• climate-clippings
• climate-change-begins-to-bite
• Michael Roberts on macro-multipliers-and-environment

Andrew Gelman ( Statistics)

• stereotype-threat
• how-to-think-about-a-psychological-science-paper-that-seems-iffy-but-is-not-obviously-flawed
• symposium-magazine
• frontiers-in-massive-data-analysis
• this involves multi-level modelling being the solution
• dont-trust-the-turk
• maybe-new-york-is-different
• economic-policy-does-not-occur-in-a-political-vacuum
• meritocracy-rerun
• Daniel Little on graphing-metadata
• Good Stats Bad Stats on big data and wimbledon
• Tim Harford on popular-perceptions-exposed-by-numbers

Dave Giles (Econometrics)

• conference-and-seminar-papers-from-both-sides-of-the-podium
• lets-put-econ-back-into-microeconometrics

Quirky

• Dianne Coyle on technocracy-vs-democracy
• Noah Smith on how-to-be-nostradumbass
• Frances Woolley on the-invisible-mentor, do-use-wikipedia-as-a-reference

Voxwonk

• fdi-surges-not-all-capital-waves-are-alike
• urbanisation-and-migration-externalities-china
• big-banks-and-macroeconomic-outcomes
• are-private-schools-really-better-not-everybody-and-not-everywhere
• how-limit-ecb-s-omt
• short-time-work-does-it-save-jobs
• new-roads-export-insights-inca-roads
• fundamentals-and-sovereign-risk-emerging-markets