If Angus Taylor is the answer then you have asked the wrong question

 The Opposition is in a real pickle. The last election was one of their worst ever defeats. Given the government's lack of achievements and their uninspiring leader then the reason surely has to be with the Opposition.

One view is the Nationals has supported policies that cost votes in the cities. I suspect this is on the money.

The next is the rise of one nation and the nationals response has been to go further to the populist right.

The Liberals have a decision to make. Is the future to regain the centre from the ALP or march further to the right.

Taylor thus far has yet to offer any solutions to the Liberals future. He is far from eloquest. His ministerial career has been poor, He frequently said base load power and dispatchable power  was the same thing. It aint. Coal fired power is base load power but is not dispatchable.

Ley has not had a fair go although in politics that is par for the course.

Answers to the last election loss are all over the place. Hastie for example wants to protect industry and so build it up. Others influenced by sky after dark want to move further to the right.

Ley clearly wants to move to the centre but has a disunited party.

Replacing her with Taylor does not fill me with any confidence. In normal times you would expect the liberals to have a largish swing towards them in the next election simply because of the last result. In an ironic move the surge in one nation may obviate this.

My only advice to the liberals is to move to the centre.

It has all been very sad

 It was a disgrace that people could not march to parliament house in sydney. however once the court made the decision that should have been that. no-one came out of that looking good.

THe pro=palestinian people gain showed no political nous.

The police looked highly undisciplined and suffering from a lack of training. clearly they escaladed things. They were there to do the opposite.

However the person who came out of the whole mess the worse was Chris Minns. The legislation clearly was not needed. There had been no violence previously. It was the legislation that promoted the violence. Minns clearly and consistently conflated the bondi massacre and pro-palestine marches. As yet he has asserted this without a shred of evidence. Does he actually believe this nonsense? Is he merely succumbing to pressure from the jewish lobby?

Allied to this was the assertion made on four corners by an ex-asio agent believing the two terrorists were radicalised a lot earlier ie  well before Israel's genocidal behaviour towards palestinians.

I might end by saying there is nothing wrong with asserting globalise the intifada. The intifada can ONLY occur in one specific geographical place. It aint sydney. If anyone expresses the phrase they are merely saying publicise the intifada so palestinians get justice. to say it explicitly supports against jews is absurd and misinformation. 

Herzog should NEVER have been invited

 Albo invited the Israeli President to Australia. It showed poor judgement.

It involved two major problems.

Firstly the incident had NOTHING to do with Palestinians or Israel's genocidal actions on them. Herzog's disgraceful words saying all Palestinians are responsible for October 7 is to all extents irrelevant to what occurred at Bondi. However it will undoubtedly get tangled up with it.

Secondly it will exacerbate deadly tropes about Jews and where their loyalties lie.

Battery update

 Our latest bill is $115. 

two things of note. The battery was not put in until the quarter had started.

My wife had the air conditioner on for a few nights which not only used up the battery but also meant we used the grid.

We do know now the dishwasher, washing machine, microwave do not take up much energy.

The big things are heating the water for the showers and the stove and oven.

We bought a 16 kw battery. If we bought a 50kw one we probably would need the grid.

Around the Traps 6/2/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Kevin Bonham on the-low-impact-of-independent-preferences-in-2025
• Antony Green on here-we-go-again-the-future-of-the-national-party , one-nations-poll-surge-the-first-25-seats-to-watch
• institutional economics on three-cuts-forward-four-hikes-back
• Greg Jericho on rba-interest-rates-decision-analysis-reserve-bank-australia
• Stella Huangfu on rba-raises-interest-rates-as-inflation-pressures-remain-high
• Chris Sidoti on albanese-can-still-withdraw-the-invitation-to-israels-president-he-should-do-so-for-the-sake-of-social-cohesio
• Kurt Sengel and Jordan McSweeney on can-one-nation-turn-its-polling-hype-into-seats-in-parliament-history-shows-it-will-struggle
• Meg Elkins on what-the-rba-wants-australians-to-do-next-to-fight-inflation-or-risk-more-rate-hikes
• Stephen Bartos and John Hawkins on is-federal-government-spending-really-to-blame-for-higher-inflation-its-not-clear-cut
• Levi West on why-did-it-take-9-days-to-declare-the-perth-bombing-attempt-a-terrorist-attack
• Carolin Kautz on canal-without-paddle-lessons-panama-australia

OZ Climate

• will-australia-reach-its-renewable-targets-on-time-it-will-need-a-lot-more-wind-and-solar
  
• locals-consider-options-after-losing-court-appeal-against-solar-farm-approval
  
• battery-prices-plunge-60-pct-in-two-years-changing-face-of-grid-and-the-nature-of-contracts
  
• big-batteries-are-pushing-down-current-and-expected-prices-in-the-evening-peaks
  
• rebates-strapped-a-rocket-to-home-battery-demand-but-has-rooftop-solar-peaked
  
• a-rule-change-request-snuck-in-over-christmas-could-radically-alter-how-the-main-grid-functions
  
• nsw-awards-contracts-to-six-huge-8-hour-battery-projects-including-the-biggest-in-australia
  
• wind-and-solar-curtailment-beneath-the-headline-numbers-from-2025
• first-solar-battery-hybrid-sends-power-into-evening-peak-heralding-radical-changes-for-australias-main-grid-changes-for-australias-main-grid
  
• Tony Wood on renewables-over-50-wholesale-prices-down-is-the-energy-transition-succeeding
• Duygu Yengin et al on why-cheaper-power-alone-isnt-enough-to-end-energy-poverty-in-summer

Northern America

• institutional economics on dollar-dominance-with-chinese-characteristics
• one percent brighter on the-venetian-option Thanks Nick
• Michael Ignatieff on lament for a nation Thanks Nick
• Oliver Hartwich on donald-trump-the-kaiser-in-mar-a-lago Thanks Nick
• Brian Blank and Brandy Hadley on 3-things-to-know-about-kevin-warsh-trumps-nod-for-fed-chair
• Eric Levitz on alex-pretti-new-video-ice-ai-trump
• the conversable economist on tariffs-and-inflation-where-are-we , when-social-security-went-haywire-in-the-1970s
• thinking about on ethnic-cleansing-in-ohio Thanks Brad
• Kruggers on federal-reserve-101 , kevin-warsh-and-weathervane-economics , american-democracy-will-not-die-in-darkness , profiles-in-cowardice-tariff-edition , is-this-cryptos-fimbulwinter , american-decency-still-lives
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-republicans-court-packing-utah-georgia-arizona , trump-minneapolis-minnesota-justice-department-broken
• Alyssa Rosenberg on melania-trump-documentary-first-lady-cash-grabs
• stay at home on kevin-warsh Thanks Tyler
• noahpinion on what-a-liberal-immigration-enforcement-might-look-like
• Fred Kaplan on trump-russia-new-start-nuclear-arms-race
• Adam Serwer on masks-ice-immigration
• Fintan O'Toole on the-crime-of-witness
• Isaac Chotiner on is-ice-leading-us-into-a-constitutional-crisis
• Menzie Chinn on when-tariffs-hit-home caligula revisited
• Shirin Ali on ice-agents-nice-little-database-google-meta-surveillance
• Alex Tabarrok on trumps-pharmaceutical-plan
• Ashley Parker on washington-post-layoffs-bezos
• Jeet Heer on politics/trump-corruption-uae-bribes , tulsi-gabbard-georgia-raid-election

Europe

• programmable mutter on europe-has-more-bargaining-strength-than-it-thinks thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on how-british-queues-got-out-of-hand
• Fred Kaplan on nato-exercise-without-america-rupture-europe
• Rod Thornton and Marina Miron on trump-wants-ukraine-to-give-up-the-donbas-in-return-for-security-guarantees-it-could-be-fatal-for-kyiv
• Martin Farr on the-fall-of-peter-mandelson-and-the-many-questions-the-uk-government-must-now-answer
• Michael Holz on the-assault-on-ukraines-power-grid

Asia

• Nicholas Coppell on us-policy-post-election-myanmar
• Shameek Godara on india-eu-trade-deal-beyond-mother-all-deals
• Haroro Ingram on unseen-front-philippines-china-challenge
• Piers Pigou on china-s-security-offerings-gain-traction-africa
• Yunyun Wahyuningram on rohingya-case-could-redefine-genocide-matters-asean
• Abhijnan Rej on bangladesh-s-election-can-culture-counter-extremism
• Phillip Saunders on xi-s-military-purges-will-make-him-wary-invading-taiwan

Wonk

• Hal Brands on trump-is-making-the-world-hedge-its-bets Thanks Nick
• Catherine Dee on andrew-tate-is-the-loneliest-bastard-on-earth Thanks Nick
• Alexander Kustov on the-uncomfortable-truths-about-immigration Thanks Nick
• Angel Zhong and Jason Tian on silver-and-gold-hit-record-highs-then-crashed-before-joining-the-rush-you-need-to-know-this
• noahpinion on what-if-ai-succeeds-but-openai-fails , international-financial-anarchy, p/the-fall-of-the-nerds
• Henry Maher on why-trumps-new-pick-for-fed-chair-hit-gold-and-silver-markets-for-good-reasons
• Peter Balonen-Rosen and Noel King on trump-foreign-policy-western-hemisphere-donroe-china-russia
• Arijan Shukla on hidden-cost-central-bank-independence
• Henry Yep on war-games-thriving-strategic-turbulence
• Sandy Holloway on mark-carney-wrong-about-rules-based-order
• the conversable economist on winter-2026-journal-of-economic-perspectives-freely-available-online

General

• Ben McCann on funny-tender-goofy-catherine-ohara-lit-up-the-screen-every-time-she-showed-up
• Claire Collins on does-coffee-raise-your-blood-pressure-heres-how-much-its-ok-to-drink
• Emlyn Dodd on olives-have-been-essential-to-life-in-italy-for-at-least-6-000-years-far-longer-than-we-thought
• John Horner on a-new-comet-was-just-discovered-will-it-be-visible-in-broad-daylight

Climate

• Jawad Khalid on climate-change-shared-problem-needs-shared-solutions
• skeptical science on polar-vortex-warm-ocean-storm , new_research

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• the-pantheon-of-celebrity-billionaires
  
• from-the-mixed-up-files-of-jeffrey-e-epstein
  
• for-gods-sake-dont-donate-to-the-international-peace-institute-unless-you-want-to-pay-for-corrupt-assholes-to-fly-first-class-around-the-world-to-give-speeches-about-how-everyone-needs-to
  
• a-counterintuitive-example-where-a-strong-prior-pulls-an-estimate-in-the-wrong-direction
  
• parallelizing-mcmc-across-the-sequence-length-this-one-is-really-cool
  
• 5-flavors-of-calibration
  
• statistics is 
• softly-effectively-in-the-age-of-genai
  
• sunstein-on-kissinger-no-opinion-on-the-whole-war-criminal-thing-but-the-generosity-that-he-showed-when-talking-about-star-wars-the-movie-not-the-weapons-program-was-incomparable
  
• Freakometrics on balance and calibration of probabilistic scores  insurance biases discrimination and fairness , criminal records
• Kaiser Fung on visualizing-hierarchies , four-reasons-to-unplug-radar-charts

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• january-hibernation-reading-a-catch-up
  
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading , paul-celan-a-life-by-anna-arno

vox wonk

• market-value-non-degree-credentials-new-evidence-37-million-us-workers 
  
• stablecoins-and-exorbitant-privilege-money-creation
  
• how-tariff-war-shock-affected-safe-asset-privilege-us-treasuries 
  
• fdi-and-growth-age-global-value-chains 
  
• us-tariffs-may-deepen-integration-elsewhere
  
• europes-us-holdings-leverage-lies-marginal-demand
  
• europes-public-finances-warming-world
  

One Nation

 It is time to examine One Nation's rise.

In some polls they are more popular than the Liberals. As the late Julius Sumner Miller would say why is this so?

Firstly where is it occurring? It is mostly in the regions and it is mostly national party seats at risk. The people who have switched their votes are low educated and low income people mostly male.

In some ways it is understandable. The coalition has broken up twice since the last election so why vote for either party when they are fighting each other. Herein lies a great irony. No party has infighting like One Nation.

We can be pretty sure they have not switched voted because of policies because no-one knows what policies One Nation supports except a racist immigration program. Multi-culturisn is not as popular in the regions and sometimes has not reached them.

History shows it is unlikely One Nation can thrive. When they talk they are incoherent. They are reliant on Hanson who looks very old. Now they are rising in the polls they will have to produce policies.

Also  important is where liberal preferences go if they finish behind one nation on first preferences. Will they direct preferences to obvious morons?

Let us assume One Nation adopts policies similar to the Nationals. In the past two elections this has cost the liberals big time in the cities where it matters.

Put me in the unlikely camp on whether one nation thrives. They will get more media exposure and thus more times to show they have little idea of what to do. At present they only get exposed to 'friendly' media. ( Funny how Gerry Henderson hasn't noticed that!). Watch out when they are regularly on mainstream media.

There will be bust ups as they always occur. most people think realistically they are smarter than Hanson and do not like the grifting of some in one nation.

So yes I am a sceptic they will become the leading conservative party. In theory it should hurry up for the Liberals and Nationals to bury the hatched

the Ashes post mortem

 No I am not going to talk about the rate rise as I having nothing to add to my previous note except there are more to come.

Why did the poms lose the Ashes so comprehensively? Let us go through the reasons.

There was no preparation. This is not just a lack of matches before the Ashes started but also a lack of understanding of wickets. In the previous Ashes they were bowler friendly and they kept on that way ever since. Bumrah appreciated them last season yet the POmmie seemed not to understand this.  In an irony of ironies they would have suited Ollie Robinson who was toiling away in grade cricket in sydney.  Carse was obviously injured after the tour of NZ. He reached 98 mph there yet the next english season was only bowling in the mid 80s.  Both Archer and Wood were injury prone.  They still had Woakes opening the bowling when they played India so they came here without a proven opening pair of bowlers.  You need to use a kookaburra from the first over as it stops swinging after about 30 overs.

They must have known Head loved short balls outside the offstump but they kept on bowling to him there. By the time they bowled short on the legstump where is vulnerable his eye was well and truly in. Atkinson is an accurate bowler in england but not here. Why? 

They also never thought clearly about spin bowling. Their first choice was never going to be successful and they had no 2nd choice!

Smith had a shocker of a series but that is simply bad luck. It could also mean poor coaching. His batting like others , seemed to show no lessons were learned at all.

The batting was lamentable.Usally either Crawley or Stoles gets a decent score. not here. They failed to understand what a no 3 is like. This meant joe Root came in time and time again when the ball was stil lswinging and thus he was vulnerable.

We have to talk about the first test. They had it and their mercy and lost. Mentally they were gone after that.

We had injuries and a suspect batting lineup but it didn't matter.

I suspect  we will learn nothing from the Ashes certainly SA will hope so.

They must have learnt not to play at balls angling towards slips and they do have bowlers ( and wickets) which may expose us.

We play SA, the kiwis and then India

what should the poms do? 

  I would not change the batting or Wikkie although I would not be surprised at another opener. The bowling would appear top be Archer, Tongue, Atkinson and Ahmed remembering they do have two decent spare time spinners in Root and Bethell.

poor OLD Gerry

 Gerry Henderson is getting older and sillier.

He likes to characterise people as left of centre or right of centre. No-one but no-one is in the centre. Thus he can characterise Ian Dunt as left of centre. Perhaps this is because he criticised the previous conservative government and is very critical of Reform. Perhaps Gerry missed his criticism of Starmer. Nevermind but calling him left of centre is absurd. Nikky Savva is a leftist!!

He doesn't like when journalists insist on politicians answer the question they ask. He says that is interrupting. If they do not do this they are 'soft' questions so he wins either way.  I wondered what he made of Sharri Markson's 'interview' of the Israeli PM, you know the indicted war criminal. He said nothing so I guess sometimes he likes 'soft' questions from the right people.

He didn't like Fitzsimmons questioning of Roberts on climate change. He alleged sneering. In his sneering reply he said Roberts had both an engineering degree and a MBA. He failed to mention his views on climate change. Funny about that.

I guess I should say in ending his big recruitment selection of the Sydney Institute was putting his wife on the payroll.

There was a time when he was a big supporter of refugees. Alas like other things this has diminished in his old age.

Is the US a failed state ?

 The USA is a lawless country.

Citizens are killed merely for demonstrating or helping people,, People are threatened for photographing public servants at 'work'. The President sues the very government he heads up.

HOWEVER Trump is very unpopular. The very issue he 'owned' he has gone vastly underwater on. It is clear why. Most people were happy for him to go after the undocumented migrants who were criminals, the murders and rapists so to speak. They were no happy for him to go after law abiding people serving and working in their community.

There was an implicit contract wit these people. if you are law abiding, go about your work and serve in your community then everything is fine. Trump has NOT done that. They have gone into selected areas and in a haphazard way rounded up anyone who looks or talks like and 'undocumented immigrant. It is a terrible way to do this. Most people rounded up are not criminals. Latinos who formerly backed trump on this policy have now turned on him and for good reason. It is both inhumane and racist hence why Stephen Miller supports it!

I continue to believe the mid-terms will again be bad for trump. If only because both he and his entourage are incompetent. Aslo the american people like a congress by democrats to put a stop on him.

And talking of Trump THIS is one of the better articles on him thanks to the cancelled  Nick Gruen.

Linda Rondstadt and the Stone Poneys

 Way back when I was only 11 this was the only hit this band had and set Linda Ronstadt on the road to fame.

This means this year she will be 80 !!  My she had a fantastic voice.

I feel it is a sad song. as is the photo compilation  Am I wrong?

Around the Traps 30/1/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• institutional economics on the-housing-wealth-that-isnt
• Bernard Keane on sussan-ley-nationals-david-littleproud-coalition-bondi Thanks Nick
• Oliver Hartwich on trump-aides-might-makes-right-doctrine-threatens-australia-and-new-zealands-claims Thanks Nick
• Linda Botterill on instead-of-a-marriage-the-coalition-should-be-an-on-again-off-again-affair
• David Lowe et al on opposition-to-moving-australia-day-from-january-26-is-hardening-new-research
• Kevin Bonham on dear-anti-preferencers-november-21st-for-australia-day
• Tony Barry on liberal-national-party-coalition-split-future
• Antony Green on statistics-on-preference-flows-between-the-coalition-and-one-nation
• John Hawkins on australian-inflation-jumps-adding-to-chances-of-an-rba-interest-rate-hike
• Grace Stanhope on conflict-prevention-or-conflict-avoidance-australia-s-foreign-policy
• Greg Jericho on why-25-potential-growth-is-wrong
• Keiran Hardy on what-is-extremism-and-how-do-we-decide

OZ Climate

• shared-solar-labors-free-power-plan-to-have-daily-cap-to-stop-abuse-by-ev-and-home-battery-owners
  
• total-transformation-of-the-australian-summer-climate-change-made-january-heatwaves-five-times-more-likely
  
• australias-first-offshore-wind-auction-set-for-august-after-nearly-one-year-delay
  
• buyer-beware-carbon-credit-platforms-repeating-ills-of-the-past
  
• batteries-and-solar-hybrids-dominate-relegating-wind-to-small-fraction-of-australias-renewable-pipeline 
  
• extraordinary-renewables-to-the-rescue-as-state-smashes-demand-records-in-unprecedented-heatwave
  
• the-future-for-gas-generation-do-we-need-it-and-in-what-form
  
• another-miserable-year-for-nuclear-power-as-renewables-surge
  
• landmark-moment-prices-plunge-as-renewables-supply-half-of-grid-batteries-surge-and-coal-hits-new-low
  
• worlds-biggest-isolated-grid-hits-remarkable-new-wind-and-solar-peak-of-91-1-pct-as-batteries-displace-coal-and-gas
  
• near-100-pct-renewable-electricity-for-australias-main-grid-is-achievable-and-affordable-year-4-update
  
• big-batteries-push-coal-and-gas-out-of-evening-peaks-and-then-get-to-eat-others-market-dinner
• Adam Morton on through-the-heatwave-haze-the-hypocrisy-of-australias-fossil-fuel-policy-shines-bright , australia-polluter-pays-levy-fossil-fuels-rod-sims-ross-garnaut-superpower-institute-report , australias-grid-now-relies-on-renewable-energy-as-much-as-coal-those-who-doubted-it-look-foolish
• Steve Turton on where-did-southern-australias-record-breaking-heatwave-come-from
• Tess Parker and Adam Wallace on anatomy-of-a-heatwave-how-a-cyclone-humid-air-and-atmospheric-waves-drove-brutal-heat-in-the-southeast

Northern America

• Dylan Mathews on pro-social-media thanks Nick
• Cameron Peters on minneapolis-fatal-shooting-border-patrol-ice-alex-pretti
• Alex Kirschner on minneapolis-ice-shooting-today-alex-pretti-trump-stephen-miller
• Fred Kaplan on europe-trump-weakness-taco-greenland-davos , trump-peace-board-gaza-one-billion-dollars
• noahpinion on what-happens-if-the-world-pulls-its=money-out-of-america , let-the-chinese-cars-in
• the conversable economist on how-slavery-held-back-growth-looking-across-the-river
• David Noriega and Kay Guerroro on federal-agents-shoot-drivers-weaponized-vehicle
• Zack Beauchamp on minneapolis-alex-pretti-ice-cbp-killing-shooting-video
• Kruggers on monsters , was-this-a-murder-too-far , how-canada-became-an-enemy , minnesota-is-the-beginning-of-an-american-colour-revolution , the-world-files-for-economic-divorce-from-america , a-bad-heir-day-at-the-fed
• Brad De Long on crosspost-sarah-jeong-it-doesnt-matter-if-alex-pretti-had-a-gun , dan-davies-demonstrates-for-immigrants
• Andrew Gawthorpe on shooting-of-alex-pretti-in-minneapolis-has-put-americas-gun-lobby-at-odds-with-the-white-house
• Jonathan Rauch on america-fascism-trump-maga-ice
• Tyler Cowen on should-you-resign
• Ian Millhiser on ice-minneapolis-federal-court-charges-contempt-schlitz , supreme-court-california-gerrymander-texas-tangipa-newsom
• Dahlia Lithwick on minnesota-protests-ice-donald-trump-taco
• Adam Serwer on the-neighbors-defending-minnesota-from-ice
• Ta-Nehisi Coates on homeland-ice-minneapolis-trump
• renew economy on fossil-fuels-fail-during-massive-winter-storm-in-us-as-21-gigawatts-goes-missing-in-big-freeze
• Christian Paz on ice-dhs-cbp-bovino-immigration-stephen-miller-kristi-noem-alex-pretti-nicole-good-mislead-truth
• Menzie Chinn on  kamin-sobel-termites-are-slowly-feasting-away-at-the-foundations-of-the-dollars-dominance
• Jeet Heer on alex-pretti-gun-second-amendment-trump
• Richard Hasen on trump-raid-georgia-election-site-2026-midterm
• Richard Haas on lethal-weapon-2

Europe

• Eric Van Rythoven on trumps-annexation-of-greenland-seemed-imminent-now-its-on-much-shakier-ground
• Sussan Kaplan and Genevieve Lemoine on greenlands-inuit-have-spent-decades-fighting-for-self-determination
• Brad De Long on three-significant-military-powers-on-the-european-contintent

Asia

• David Vallance on china-s-cyber-forces-are-impressive-growing
• Brad De Long on crosspost-adrian-monck-the-end-of-chinas-central -military-command
• Adam Simpson and Nicholas Farrelly on 5-years-on-from-the-juntas-coup-myanmars-flawed-elections-cant-unite-a-country-at-risk-of-breaking-apart
• Apoorba Banerjee on resilience-conditional-trade-order-asean-s-2026-challenge
• Joshua Keating on xi-zhang-youxia-china-military-purge
• Cyrus Naji on bangladeshs-stalled-student-revolution-cyrus-naji
• David Goodman on xi-jinping-has-dismissed-two-of-chinas-most-senior-generals-what-does-this-mean
• Ali Mamouri on as-syrias-new-government-consolidates-its-power-the-kurdish-minority-fears-for-its-future
• Arash Beidollarkani on technology-repression-iran-re-engineers-its-security-state
• Henry Storey on green-shoots-emerge-india-s-economic-reform-agenda
• Amin Saikal on with-iran-weakened-trumps-end-goal-may-now-be-regime-change-its-an-incredibly-risky-gamble
• Jiwon Kim on tokyo-court-finds-north-korea-s-paradise-earth-survivors-were-misled
• noahpinion on no-china-doesnt-plan-1000-years-ahead

Wonk

• Anuad Bertrand on carney-just-announced-that-the-west-lost-the-second-cold-war Thanks Nick
• breaking the news on a-speech-for-the-history-books Thanks Nick
• Mathew McManus on carl-schmitts-critique-of-liberal-democracy Thanks Nick
• Connor O'Brien and Quah Jye on middle-powers-can-t-run-world
• sandwichman on in-midst-of-rupture
• Tyler Cowen on the-economics-of-currency-values
• noahpinion on roundup-76-great-powers-acting-stupid
• Jerome Tubiana on darfurs-endless-war-el-fasher-tubiana
• Menzie Chinn on kamin-sobel-termites-are-slowly-feasting-away-at-the-foundations-of-the-dollars-dominance
• David Tan on nuclear-fallacy-why-deterrence-can-t-stop-agi-arms-race
• Chris Dillow on the-death-of-the-centre-right

General

• Maxime Aubert et al on humanitys-oldest-known-cave-art-has-been-discovered-in-sulawesi
• Eva Anagnostou-Laotides and Michael Charles on in-ancient-mesopotamia-what-was-a-ziggurat
• Tyler Cowen on who-is-good-at-soccer

Climate

• real climate on a-peek-behind-the-curtain
• skeptical science on winter-2026-hit-us , new_research
• Wesley Morgan on fossil-fuels-are-doomed-and-trump-cant-save-them

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• concerns-about-analyses-using-the-cooperative-election-study
  
• harvard-dean-made-150000-as-witness-in-tylenol-suits
  
• the-myth-of-wage-compensation-for-hazardous-work-rears-its-ugly-head-this-nyt-article-has-been-engineered-to-annoy-peter-dorman
  
• science-vs-superstition-and-the-pluralists-dilemma
  
• machine-learning-research-is-not-serious-research-and-therefore-hallucinated-references-are-not-necessarily-a-big-deal-agrees-a-prestigious-group-of-machine-learning-researchers 
  
• facebook-and-the-inherent-incoherence-of-the-ideology-of-market-leading-tech-companies
  
• survey-statistics-total-margin-of-error-ii
  
• ok-i-reread-that-classic-paper-by-paul-meehl-and
  
• not-quite-adversarial-collaboration
  
• statschat on its-cold-out-there , briefly
• freakometrics on modelling and understanding indirect discrimination in algorithmic fairness
• Kaiser Fung on instacart-bows-to-pressure , how-mta-is-spending-its-money

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• angry bear on book-review-land-is-a-big-deal

Vox Wonk

• you-only-live-twice-growth-strategy-ukraine 
  
• building-bank-resilience-additional-tier-1-debt-reform 
  
• winners-and-losers-remote-work-how-firm-capabilities-impact-productivity
  
• how-tariff-war-shock-affected-safe-asset-privilege-us-treasuries
  
• analysis-eu-telecom-sectors-ability-remunerate-its-cost-capital
  

Another rate rise is likely

 the CPI was released yesterday. ( It has both monthly and quarterly data.) Here is John Hawkin's take.

On a quarterly basis the trimmed mean is not looking good. A conservative central bank would raise rates simply because the risk is too great inflation maybe on the rise again. Remember as we have talked about before the economy's speed limit is reasonably low and thus inflation can rise even though GDP is tepid.

The government could reduce spending. Incredibly for an ALP government they have gone big on universal care as the OECD pointed out. Think batteries, e-cars child care etc.

I should also point out the labour force figures overstate the strength of the labour market.  Private sector employment has gone backwards. It is the non-market sector where employment has surged.

I think on balance the correct move would be to raise rates. We do have monthly CPI figures these days so monetary policy can be changed if needed.

the coalition in a mess

 Technically speaking the tile is inaccurate as there is no coalition!  however without one there will never be a change of government and that is a bad thing for Australia.

It is the National party that is at fault here. They had three shadow ministers agree to a policy in a shadow cabinet meeting and then vote against the policy in parliament!  Given it is the whole national party agreeing to this absurd position and we must assume with Littleproud's assertion they will not be in a coalition where Ley is the liberal leader.

This leads us to a position where there will be no coalition for some time to come.

It appears there are only two scenarios going forward.

1. The Nationals climb down from their position which seems unlikely
2. The Liberals choose another leader and thing calm down. This seems unlikely as well as it would show the Liberals kowtowing to the Nationals demand.

We could get to the really stupid position where both the Liberals and Nationals have separate shadow ministers. One major reason for why this is stupid is who gets dumped when eventually there is a coalition.

As I have said Australia needs a strong coalition not only for a change of government but also to keep them honest as they govern. I am unsure as how we get there.

Minnesota what can you say

 Another day another person killed by ICE in Minnesota. He essentially was on the ground firmly held by several ICE agents when shot. He remained on the ground when he was shot dead by various agents. About 10 shots.

Words escape me. It shows an ill trained workforce embolden by their bosses after the Good killing. An agent violently shoved a woman to the ground which started it all. This escalated tensions. It didn't deescalate things.

This really has all come about because the agents are under orders to arrest a certain quota each day!

This all occurs when you elect a convicted criminal to high office. did anyone really think they would not corrupt law enforcement.  The two people who now have no reputation now are Bondi and Blanche.

I am mighty glad I live in Australia.

I think I should add two things.

1.  Trump is underwater bugtime on immigration. Latinos in particular are incensed that ICE is going after ordinary law abiding people and not the 'murderers and rapists'. Miller simply does not understand the economic implications of reducing the labor force so much.
2. ICE pretty much has a deserved reputation for lying about what happens in any situation.This has even occurred in courts!

today is the wrong day to celebrate australia day

 January 26 is when India became an independent nation not Australia. We became a nation on January 1.

Only a nation of morons would celebrate that day on the WRONG day!

Around the Traps 23/1/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Isabelle Oderberg on randa-abdel-fattah-controversy Thanks Nick
• Nick Feik on the-implosion-of-adelaide-writers Thanks Nick
• Genna Lehmann on foreign-investment-screening-could-have-saved-chipmaker-nexperia-what-are-lessons
• Charlene Chan on research-reveals-a-surprising-line-of-defence-against-cyber-attacks-accountants
• Michelle Grattan on defiant-nationals-break-with-liberals-over-hate-bill-putting-strain-on-coalition ,coalition-split-is-massive-blow-for-ley-but-the-fault-lies-with-littleproud
• Victor Abramowicz on keeping-australian-defence-contestability-independent
• Anne Twomey on hate-crime-laws-may-have-unintended-consequences-including-chilling-free-speech
• Linda Botterill on instead-of-a-marriage-the-coalition-should-be-an-on-again-off-again-affair
• Shannon Brincat on carneys-rallying-cry-to-middle-powers-includes-australia-and-we-should-heed-his-call
• Luke McNamara on who-will-bear-the-brunt-of-labors-hate-speech-laws-the-government-has-failed-to-give-a-clear-answer

OZ Climate

• fewer-people-calling-on-coal-suburban-hotspots-revealed-as-home-battery-rebates-top-200000
  
• too-valuable-to-throw-out-labor-announces-first-national-solar-panel-recycling-pilot-program
  
• queenslands-fossil-first-energy-plan-under-attack-with-new-outages-and-evacuation-at-troubled-coal-plant
  
• the-rise-of-battery-storage-and-why-the-grid-is-rapidly-passing-gas
  
• origin-to-keep-australias-biggest-coal-generator-open-for-another-two-years
  
• australias-transition-from-coal-is-being-held-hostage-by-its-obsession-with-spinning-machines
  
• w-a-backflips-on-loss-making-coal-generator-promises-more-subsidies-to-keep-plant-open
  
• australia-should-go-hard-on-evs-exempt-them-from-gst-and-save-40-billion-a-year-in-fuel-imports
• reduced-appetite-for-solar-giant-hybrid-project-slashes-pv-component-by-half-as-it-seeks-green-tick
  
• total-transformation-of-the-australian-summer-climate-change-made-january-heatwaves-five-times-more-likely
  
• shared-solar-labors-free-power-plan-to-have-daily-cap-to-stop-abuse-by-ev-and-home-battery-owners
  
• Lisa Cox and Graham Readfearn on australian-carbon-credit-scheme-solar-electric-vehicles-accused-potentially-misleading-customers

Northern America

• the next move on minneapolis-gaslighting Thanks Nick
• institutional economics on did-nouriel-roubini-curse-us-exceptionalism
• Kruggers on the-stupidest-trump-move-so-far , big-business-should-end-its-faustian, its-sundowning-in-america , maga-delusions-of-economic-leverage , courageous-carney-vs-demented-donald , trump-0-europe-1
• Dustin De  Soto and Astead Herndon  on trump-greenland-congress-war-powers 
• noahpinion on trapped-in-the-hell-of-social-comparison , resistance-is-necessary-but-its-not-enough
• Samuel Garrett on congress-power-has-been-diminishing-for-years-leaving-trump-to-act-with-impunity
• Scott Hechinger on cell-phone-filming-ice-doj-renee-good-shooting
• Anne Applebaum on trump-letter-to-norway
• Peter Orszag on risk-higher-us-inflation-2026 Thanks Tyler
• Drezners world on revenge-of-the-toddler-in-chief Thanks Brad
• renew economy on solar-accounts-for-three-fifths-of-us-electricity-demand-growth-in-2025-despite-trumps-best-efforts 
• Bruce Wolpe on a-year-on-from-his-second-inauguration-trump-2-0-has-one-defining-word-power
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-bruen-wolford-lopez-hawaii
• Fred Kaplan on trump-greenland-obsession-impeach , trump-davos-speech-canada-new-world-order
• Stephanie McCrummen on trump-greenland-obsession-impeach
• Tom Nicholls on us-military-trump-greenland
• new deal democrat on us-has-largely-turned-into-a-banana-republic-in-political-and-economic-terms
• Melissa Tyler on rearview-mirror-america-s-year-foreign-aid-cuts
• Sophie Yi on trump-has-swapped-productive-hypocrisy-crude-exercises-power
• David Frum on fiona-hill-0n-putin
• Christian Paz on ice-minnesota-religious-priest-pastor-faith-immigration-deportation-protest-st-paul-minneapolis-catholic-evangelical
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-the-new-political-economy-of-u-s-trade
• Sassan Glasser on its-time-to-talk-about-donald-trumps-logorrhea
• Andrew Warren on jack-smith-testimony-republicans-question

Europe

• Shannon Brincat on trump-has-threatened-european-countries-with-higher-tariffs-if-he-doesnt-get-greenland-will-it-work
• renew economy on irelands-oldest-wind-farm-closes-down-to-make-way-for-one-of-europes-largest-projects
• Tyler Cowen on is-there-a-british-productivity-comeback
• Jason Ralph on why-keir-starmer-had-to-speak-out-against-trump-over-greenland-after-staying-quiet-on-venezuela
• Eric Van Rythoven on trumps-annexation-of-greenland-seemed-imminent-now-its-on-much-shakier-ground
• Ian Hill on russia-ukraine-war-lost-amid-distractions
• Isaac Chotiner on how-europe-can-respond-to-trumps-greenland-imperialism
• terribly sensible on productivity-comeback Thanks Tyler
• Saxon Wright-Casanova on truth-about-arctic-strategic-competition
• renew economy on wind-and-solar-generate-more-electricity-in-europe-than-fossil-fuels-for-first-time-in-2025

Asia

• Amit Kumar on how-western-unity-taliban-afghanistan-quietly-fracturing
• Kruggers on chinas-trade-surplus-part-iii
• Roland Raja on yes-vietnam-really-winning-trade-wars
• Arkophrabho Hazra on cricket-has-india-s-soft-power-tool-become-strategic-liability
• Susanna Patton on peace-asian-way-china-s-role-thailand-cambodia-conflict
• Yixiao Zhou on to-sustain-prosperity-as-its-population-shrinks-china-will-have-to-invest-big-at-home
• Mark Beeson on ruled-by-engineers-how-china-gets-things-done-leaving-the-us-in-the-dust
• Shadi Rouhshabaz on international-community-failing-iranian-people
• Cora Engelbrecht on a-massacre-in-mashhad

Wonk

• Jason White on automotive-roadsafety-innovation-activity Thanks Nick
• artificial bureaucracy on context-widows Thanks Nick
• Konstantin Zhukov on searching-reporters-homes-suing-journalists-and-repressing-citizen-dissent-are-well-known-steps-toward-autocracy
• Tim Harford on why-populism-became-popular
• Robert Baird on the-crisis-whisperer-how-adam-tooze-makes-sense-of-our-bewildering-age Thanks Tyler
• Anya Arthurs on taking-paracetamol-in-pregnancy-doesnt-increase-your-babys-risk-of-autism-or-adhd-new-review
• Imran Khalid on the-decline-of-sanctions
• noahpinion on zero-sum-economics-keeps-failing , lets-save-the-human-species
• Tyler Cowen on when-did-argentina-lose-its-way , fears-of-larger-wars-in-east-africa ,what-davos-and-mark-carney-get-wrong
• forked lightning on using-generative-ai-to-learn-is-like-Odeysseus-untying-himslef-from-the-mast
• the conversable economist on us-china-competition-for-ai-markets
• Brad De Long on why-are-there-academic-marxists-who-do-not-follow-in-Marx's-footsteps-at-all , noah-smith-needs-to-and-many-othersneed-to listen-to claudia goldin-and-others
• Greg Jericho on the-imfs-banal-language-is-sane-washing-an-economic-crisis-created-by-the-egomaniacal-donald-trump
• Mark Shanahan on one-venue-two-speeches-how-mark-carney-left-donald-trump-in-the-dust-in-davos
• Peter Wehner on maga-christians-betray-ethics-ice
• Sam Roggeveen on rupture-not-transition-carney-s-new-order
• Aylon Berger on sidelining-human-capital-western-industrial-policy
• Chris Dillow on on-regulatory-capture

General

• Chloe Riley on like-jane-eyre-ive-been-seen-as-unconventional-and-abnormal-im-autistic-is-she-too
• Maxime Aubert et al on humanitys-oldest-known-cave-art-has-been-discovered-in-sulawesi
• Anthony Clarke and Chris Kirkland on grains-of-sand-prove-people-not-glaciers-transported-stonehenge-rocks
• David Nicholls on rob-hirst-was-not-the-figurehead-of-midnight-oil-but-he-was-its-backbone
• Upama Aich on why-are-human-penises-so-large-new-evolutionary-study-finds-two-main-reasons

Climate

• Ben Mather et al on the-way-earths-surface-moves-has-a-bigger-impact-on-shifting-the-climate-than-we-knew
• skeptical science on keep-in-ground , wmo-confirms-2025- was-one-of-the-warmest-yearshtml

Andrew Gelman ( mostly stats)

• dont-get-any-on-you 
  
• coding-for-humans-best-practices-for-writing-software-people-can-read
  
• retroactively-validated-hype
  
• noems-razor-never-attribute-to-stupidity-that-which-is-adequately-explained-by-malice
  
• two-workflow-challenges-from-2012-that-were-solved-as-a-byproduct-of-something-else
  
• once-more-about-the-z-curve-method
  
• survey-statistics-total-margin-of-error
  
• what-a-coincidence-what-a-coincidence
  
• aking
  
• concerns-about-analyses-using-the-cooperative-election-study
  
• reducible errors on prediction-markets Thanks Nick
• freakometrics on the government will foot the bill , mathematical advances on emerging risks
• junk charts on the-smell-of-pie-charts , var-technology-is-ruining-football

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• angry bear on book-review-the-edge-of-the-world
• Andrew Moody on my-year-in-books

Vox Wonk

• addressing-europes-services-dependencies 
  
• tariff-reciprocity-and-true-cost-protection-index 
  
• forecasting-inflation-sum-cycles-outperforms-the-whole
  
• minimum-wages-and-insurance-within-firm
  
• socioeconomic-inequality-longevity-larger-we-thought
  
• when-broadband-comes-banks-credit-supply-market-structure-and-information-acquisition
  
• update-great-reallocation-us-supply-chain-trade
  
• central-bank-digital-currency-and-monetary-sovereignty
  
• how-fed-makes-decisions-disagreement-beliefs-and-power-chair
  

The coalition in a pickle

 Wow, three members of the national party who are also in the shadow cabinet thought after shadow cabinet agreed to the new hate laws thought they could vote against the laws.

See  Michelle Grattan

Maybe they were worried about hate-crime-laws-may-have-unintended-consequences-including-chilling-free-speech.  I doubt it.

The essence of cabinet government is once cabinet agrees to something all members of cabinet vote that way otherwise you would have anarchy!

 The Nationals want it both ways. It aint possible.

Why then are the National party reacting thus. Maybe because of THIS. 

The One Nation surge is coming at the expense of the coalition.  They appeal to uneducated, low income regional voters so if this surge stays it is the Nationals who are in trouble rather than the Liberals. The Liberals cannot embrace one nation policies as it would mean losing more seats to teals.

What is interesting is what occurs to preferences. See Kevin Bonham. Just imagine a regional seat where the contest is between the ALP, Liberals, Nationals and one nation. Let us now imagine the ALP preferences flow to the lib.They overtake the national and it becomes a contest between the lib and one nation. How many national preferences would flow to the lib. what a pickle!

I think it is far too early to speculate on these things BUT the Nationals actions means the LNP vote should not recover in the short term.

Is Albo having a Menzies moment?

The security forces are most likely not at fault

 Alas too many people are blaming albo for the bondi massacre which is clearly absurd. Some twits like Minns are associating it with the pro-palestinian protests which on present information would be absurd as well and totally ignorant.

If the terrorist's were highly influenced by ISIS and believed in a palestinian state then they would be all over the place in terms of ideology. Just remember they are in possession of a video from the living terrorist and thus far we have heard nothing meaning it tells us very little.

The murderers were lone wolves and lone wolves are very hard to detect. They used very little if any social media making it so much harder to detect. Finally no-one had a clue about their obvious fanatical beliefs. Neither the wife, relatives or close friends.

In other words it would have been next to impossible to stop the massacre!

In the past preventing any incident has been relatively easy for ASIO and other agencies as the people concerned were idiots and easy to detect. Not so here and the two people were not highly educated. The massacre was highly planned and researched.

One obvious answer to this sad incident is for the authorities to rely more on old fashioned intelligence. This is highly labour intensive and would need 'snouts' that have great discernment. They would need to understand islam intimately for a start.They would thus need to know which preachers are leading towards violence and who are people who believe in their teachings. 

It is all hard yakka but necessary.

More on australian Polity

 It is stil la big pickle.

Security forces

Up until bondi the security forces has saved us from a major terrorist incident. ( no the Lindt cafe was NOT a terrorist incident.)  This is mainly because the alleged terrorists were idiots. It is not hard to stop things occurring when the people are stupid!

We still know little about bondi. There is apparently a video on the survivor's phone saying something about bondi however we do not know whether it is in vague general terms or specific. Given nothing has been said I suspect it is the former.

We do know the security forces believe both father and son were strongly aligned with ISIS. This incident was well planned and they did not tell anyone of their 'religious' understanding of the koran and other documents. since they are poorly educated and the father was from India it is unlikely they knew much arabic. They also were off the grid having little to no social media and were lone wolves. given the father was not a mad islamic terrorist or had views that way when he came and neither did the son when ASIO examined him their belief structure appears to be recent. Whether it was slow in forming or was sudden we have NO idea.

Hence it is not surprising our forces knew little about them or could stop their murderous actions.

Hopefully Richardson and the RC can assist us in this.

LNP

If albo and the government were slow as a wet weekend on this matter the Opposition have been all over the place. They wanted parliament to be open before christmas and legislation passed. But now things are running too fast. We need time apparently to study any legislation. Huh

Hate speech 

This will need very careful wording. I see some people not agreeing quoting from a religious text should not be exempt Hmm picking on the Koran although it is satanic, brings up a load of problems. If you can say something is hate speech from scripture for example then can a pastor talk about homosexulaity in a sermon? most importantly it would v be viewed as picking on muslims and thus could exacerbate islamic radicalisation.

Also what exactly is hate. Defining that like anti-semitism will be very important.You do not want to lower the standard to bring in unthought consequences.

Polling

Kevin Bonham writes a great column concerning one poll. well worth a read. IF One Nation continues to poll well this will be a major consideration.  If you are going to vote for an idiot I would rather Jackie Kelly than Pauline Hanson. although both have constant with others Jackie never has a svengali behind her!