Stan sucks

 As a family we have been watching the EPL by watching optus sport. We were well satisfied with it.

Early this year Optus sport announced they were nol onger having the EPL indeed optus sport was going and Stan now had the EPL rights.

My oldest son thus got the streaming for Stan. There is no stan sport. If you want to watch sport you have to get the whole thing.

We didn't like that but put up with it. however after the first week every time we try to watch the EPL all we get is there is a problem and thus no EPL. It matters not what we do we simply cannot get it and stan will not refund any money.

I should add fans are scathing about stan's coverage and they are right.

So I have to miss a season of the EPL. Thanks stan

Around the Traps 29/8/25

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Stephen Bartos on after-three-days-of-talks-a-fairer-tax-system-is-on-the-agenda-theres-no-shortage-of-ideas 
• Ross Gittins on candles-dont-quite-cut-it-in-powerless-sharehouse , we-need-to-unclog-pipes-of-the-capitalist-system , we-have-arrested-development-of-our-young
• croaking cassandra on reading-grant-robertson , reserve-bank-meeting-the-pm , reserve-bank-treasury-and-willis , a-timeline , weak-minister-weak-institutions
• Keiran Hardy on the-islamic-revolutionary-guard-corps-will-be-proscribed-as-a-terrorist-organisation-what-does-this-mean
• Michelle Grattan on australia-says-iran-was-behind-two-antisemitic-attacks-iranian-ambassador-expelled
• Justin Bergman on qanda-with-kylie-moore-gilbert-this-is-why-iran-is-instigating-terrorism-in-australia
• Nicki Hutley on new-report-highlights-wage-inequality-australia-wealth-gap
• Lydia Khalil on iran-history-exploiting-social-divisions-abroad-saw-opportunity-in-australia

OZ Climate

• 3000-turbines-and-35-solar-farms-new-details-emerge-of-massive-70-gw-project-proposed-for-nullarbor 
  
• developers-sink-plan-for-australias-first-floating-offshore-wind-farm-but-bowen-remains-buoyant 
  
• stunning-success-of-home-battery-boom-will-slash-rooftop-solar-exports-and-reshape-the-grid-again
  
• truths-and-tropes-of-transmission-costs-how-much-are-consumers-really-paying
  
• green-spiky-and-duck-shaped-how-the-last-10-years-has-changed-australias-grid
  
• nelsons-blind-eye-big-gentailers-wont-build-or-contract-solar-and-wind-they-cannot-control
  
• australian-industry-can-ditch-diesel-says-report-but-not-without-ditching-its-subsidy-first
  
• owner-of-australias-biggest-wind-farm-buys-massive-pipeline-of-battery-wind-and-solar-projects
  
• this-australian-utility-will-soon-be-the-first-to-have-more-big-battery-capacity-than-coal
• agl-may-mothball-coal-units-or-shut-them-down-over-weekends-to-make-way-for-solar-hints-at-wind-contract
  
• turbine-shut-downs-back-on-the-table-as-contested-tasmania-wind-farm-gets-federal-green-light
  
• Frank Jotzo on no-room-for-the-timid-setting-australias-2035-emissions-target-is-a-daring-tightrope-act

Northern America

• institutional economics on tariffs-trade-and-measured-economic-freedom
• Sean Rameswaram and Gabrielle Berney on south-park-trump-media-criticism
• the pursuit of happiness on the-fed-gives-up Thanks Tyler
• Tyler Cowen on did-the-united-states-grow-its-way-out-of-wwii-debt , the-history-of-american-corporate-nationalization
• Norm Eisen and Andrew Warren on john-bolton-fbi-trump-raid-search
• Kruggers on we-are-all-lisa-cook , in-the-matter-of-lisa-cook , the-crazy-comes-for-clean-energy , why-arent-markets-freaking-out , decline-and-fall-of-the-american-empire
• noahopinion on a-few-cultural-thoughts , the-richest-third-world-country
• Brad De Long on a-note-on-the-unusual-procedures-surrounding-the-expiration-of-federal-reserve-gubernatioral-appointments , chaos-moneys-trying-to-fire-fed-governor
• Zeeshan Aleem on trump-polls-approval-ratings-lies-truth-social-post
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-donald-trump-federal-reserve-firing-unitary-executive
• the conversable economist on why-is-productivity-falling-in-the-us-construction-sector
• Michael Wilner on william-pulte-leads-effort-to-accuse-trump-foes-of-mortgage-fraud
• RN Prasher on trump-s-method-not-madness
• Eric Levitz on trump-lisa-cook-federal-reserve-firing
• Angry Bear on highest-homicide-rates-in-2024-cities
• Bret Christophers on whose-fed-independent-central-bank
• John Cassidy on the-enormous-stakes-of-trumps-effort-to-fire-the-fed-governor-lisa-cook
• Quinta Jurecic on trump-habba-illegal
• Jeet Heer on john-bolton-trump-fbi-investigation
• renew economy on what-to-do-with-the-inconvenient-truth-destroy-the-evidence-and-pretend-it-doesnt-exist
• Dylan Scott on trump-cdc-director-monarez-robert-kennedy-jr
• Andrew Prokop on trump-dc-police-takeover-national-police-force-maga
• Liz Anderson on its-not-socialism-its-national-socialism

Europe

• Mark Webber on ukraine-war-what-an-article-5-style-security-guarantee-might-look-like
• noahopinion on europes-crusade-against-air-conditioning
• Natasha Lindtstaedt on why-a-new-iron-curtain-is-being-built-across-europe-this-time-its-to-keep-russia-out
• stumbling and mumbling on the-crisis-of-uk-democracy
• Mark Edele on anchorage-washington-implications-ending-russia-s-war-against-ukraine
• Lisa Martin on greenland-not-sale-open-business
• William Gourley on polls-suggest-this-man-could-become-turkeys-next-president-erdogan-is-doing-everything-to-stop-him

Asia

• Julie Norman on no-end-to-the-violence-as-israel-launches-its-assault-on-gaza-city
• Leonie Fleissman on israels-plan-for-massive-new-west-bank-settlement-would-make-a-palestinian-state-impossible
• Huma Rehman on next-india-pakistan-crisis-could-spiral-out-control
• Shannon Bosch and Joshua Ashton on israels-call-up-of-130-000-reservists-raises-legal-risks-for-dual-citizens-and-their-home-countries
• Danielle Flitton on gap-between-quad-rhetoric-reality
• Ali Mamouri on iran-is-under-pressure-from-australia-at-a-pivotal-moment-time-is-running-out-to-strike-a-nuclear-deal 
• Maha Nassar on israels-killing-of-journalists-follows-a-pattern-of-silencing-palestinian-media-that-stretches-back-to-1967
• Gabriela Bernal on why-fears-about-japan-going-nuclear-are-likely-overblown
• Leoni Connah on kashmir-s-double-burden-climate-change-conflict
• Niko Pasko on seoul-will-struggle-find-currency-pyongyang-talks
• Henry Storey on trump-s-tariffs-are-only-part-problem-indian-manufacturing
• Maximillian Rehm on pragmatism-reigns-japan-south-korea-look-toward-future
• Dina Chhorn on triple-shock-threatens-southeast-asia-s-development-model

Wonk

• Nick Gruen on democracy-the-three-legged-stool , trust-and-the-competition-delusion , democracy-the-three-legged-stool
• Thomas Burke and Jeb Barnes on abundance-liberalism-versus-adversarial-legalism Thanks Nick
• Dan Davies on the-problem-factory-preemptive-risk-aversion-in-infrastructure-planning-and-the-role-of-professional-services Thanks Nick 
• James Panichi on how-the-leopard-changed-its-spots Thanks Nick
• Will Storr on a-crisis-of-mattering Thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on how-a-well-timed-kind-word-can-change-everything 
• the conversable economist on does-the-invisible-hand-work-for-honor-too-thought-from-montesquieu 
• Kruggers on the-economics-of-stagflation-part-11
• Danielle Hitch et al on long-covid-is-more-than-fatigue-our-new-study-suggests-its-impact-is-similar-to-a-stroke-or-parkinsons
• Patrick Yeager on why-future-wars-will-be-fought-over-water-supply
• Marta Khonym on in-a-post-truth-world-what-happens-if-we-cant-trust-us-economic-data-any-more
• Alex Tabarrok on resources-for-teaching-tariffs

General

• Avishay Artsy and Sean Waneswaran on mars-bezos-musk-space-race-billionaires

Climate

• skeptical science on fact-brief-are-surface-temperatures-reliable , another-pause , new_research
• Mojtaba Sadegh et al on wildfire-disasters-are-increasingly-in-the-news-yet-less-land-is-burning-globally-heres-why
• and Then Theres Physics on another-pause
• Pintu Mahla on monsoon-flooding-has-killed-hundreds-in-pakistan-climate-change-is-pushing-the-rainy-season-from-blessing-to-looming-catastrophe
• Byrd Pinkerton on camp-century-greenland-ice-sheet-sediment-research-climate-change
• Pep Canadell on the-climate-case-for-planting-trees-has-been-overhyped-but-its-not-too-late-to-fix-it

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• my-thoughts-on-l-a-pauls-transformative-experience
  
• chatbot-still-cant-handle-tic-tac-toe
  
• what-writing-a-failed-rock-paper-scissors-program-taught-me-or-should-have-taught-me-about-sample-size-and-uncertainty 
  
• new-instructor-resources-for-llaudet-and-imais-book-data-analysis-for-social-science
  
• survey-statistics-thomas-lumley-writes-about-interviewing-your-laptop
  
• aiming-your-gatling-guns-in-the-wrong-direction-shooting-the-messenger-for-something-the-messenger-was-never-saying
  
• how-will-should-llms-change-how-organizations-do-strategy
  
• the-mantra-and-mania-of-data-sharing
  
• Freakometrics on the impossible right to make mistakes , in the end who will bear the cost of insurance
• Kaiser Fung on story-first-governing , mta-lowers-revenues-while-upping-stress-on-some-commuters

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• without-nature-there-is-no-economy
  
• the magic of the technology business
• David Leeder on one-track-minds Thanks Nick
• Brad De Long on project-syndicate-is-a-sino-american-synthesis-possible
• noahopinion on book-review-breakneck

Vox Wonk

• interest-rate-and-deposit-run-risk-new-evidence-euro-area-banks-2022-2023-tightening
  
•  crypto-tokenisation-and-future-payments 
• industrial-policy-and-retaliatory-protection-under-wto-lessons-china 
  
• columns/chat-bankman-fried-experiment-llm-ethics-finance 
  
• battlefield-market-how-disruptions-ukraine-affected-grain-price-trends
  
• dangling-fiscal-surveillance-eu-fiscal-policies-2024
  
• federal-reserve-new-administration-and-outlook-economy-and-monetary-policy
  
• words-deeds-incorporating-climate-risks-sovereign-credit-ratings
  
• investor-memory-and-biased-beliefs-evidence-field
  
• non-effect-tariffs-manufacturing-employment
  
• new-currency-war-us-china-digital-rivalry-test-monetary-discipline
  
• financial-sector-and-global-dollar-system
  
• trumpian-tariffs-are-import-substitution-industrialisation-20
  
• how-institutions-interact-exchange-rates-after-2024-us-presidential-election
  

Is the USA a third world country

 Damn. Every time I get an idea someone comes up and beats me.

Read noah smith on the-richest-third-world-country

I cannot get over how dirigiste the US has become.

Think about it.

Trump wants: 

•  to direct private investment
• 'influence' who is the CEO
• tell companies what policies and procedures they must implement
• take an equity stake in public companies
• deport anyone without due process
• bar people from visiting or studying if they criticise Trump or the state of Israel

I could go on but why bother you get the picture and these people have the effrontery to call themselves conservative!

Whoopsy I forgot to mention the Lisa Cook affair. 'Strongmen' always want control over the economy. Why hasn't the market really cranked then you ask. Because they believe the move is illegal. If the Supreme Court overrules the ruling they made early this year to favour Trump yet again then watch for market fireworks

Why aren't any people apologising?

 Since that fateful day when Hams murdered innocent Israeli civilians we have heard the government has allowed anti-semitic sentiments to run rogue. We saw fires and other incidents at jewish establishments.

We now know almost all these incidents were either the result of criminals trying to get leniency in their cases or Iran paying criminals to do damage. In Iran's case we know they are responsible for twop incidents but this will undoubtedly rise.

This all means the so-called anti-semitic surge never really existed. all those people who got into a lather about it ( including the Israeli PM) need to offer apologies for getting it so wrong.

It was suspect in the first place. anti-semitic feeling does not rept. It is always there. There was always something suspect about some of the incidents. Chris Minns please take note!

Why have we not seen an apology then? The reason must be the very same people do not want to admit they were wrong.

On a related issue we saw yesterday Israel bomb a hospital in Gaza not once but twice. This means they deliberately targeted those people attempting to rescue those injured with the first blast. It was a barbaric act. More so when the excuse was a person with a camera was there!!

It aint the first time Israel has has targeted and  murdered journalists.

Israel is now a pariah state and it will as Israel attempts to get rid of all palestinians and become the one state in the area and thus destroying any form of a  Palestinian state. only get worse

Shires Cricket

 I need a break from all this awful news.

I umpired in shires cricket for some time. I also played cricket in Shires ( where I took three hatricks!)

CricketNSW announced without notice they would no longer pay for the umpires in Shires cricket. The clubs now have to find the money.  They have agreed to pay for two umpires in 1st and 2nd grade but only one umpire in 3rd and 4th grade.

This will mean the clubs will have to find an extrav $15k this coming season. At least three clubs are in financial difficulty because of this so the future is uncertain.

There are a number of points to make.

1. How come cricketNSW did not have a transition period for this action. Let us say it cost $250k each season for umpires. I do not know! They could have reduced the payment to $125k this season and then $75k the next season. Their action merely heightens concerns they are facing financial problems.
2. Having merely one person to umpire some games will be very hard for those umpires. I had to umpire a match on the second day by myself because my partner had a stroke. It was an easy match as it was a strong side against a weak side and both sides were well behaved BUT I was mentally exhausted when the match ended and that was 5 or 6 years ago.
3. The rules will have to be changed when there is only one umpire. The umpire must be able to overrule the square leg if he believes the wrong decision was made as occurs on sunday.
4. The Shires umpire association will lose members. Over time the  premium  paid to umpires in Shires will reduce compared to local associations. Umpires will go to local competitions because of this.
5. If any clubs fold then shires will lose the grounds for good. either the local associations will claim them or the councils will get rid of the turf pitches as they are costly to maintain.

I ended umpiring at the right time.

The USA

 Two things occurred over our weekend.

Firstly transcripts of the 'Maxwell interviews' was released. It was embarrassing. Clearly the Deputy of the DOJ had little knowledge of the court case. He let numerous lies/ misleading answers pass through to the keeper. He had no follow up questions. It was very odd Maxwell was not warned of being charged if she lied although given the  interviewer had little knowledge of the subject this perhaps is not surprising. If I did not know better I would think Trump told him to go and  interview her to get certain 'answers' and if they were the 'right' answers she could be moved to another prison. Wow and she was!

John Bolton's house and offices were raided by the FBI supposedly on information provided by the head of the CIA. I would have thought the statute of limitations would be relevant here however tti would not be if this 'investigation' is for performative reasons only. Usually a search comes near the end of an investigation not at the start! I doubt if there will be an indictment.

wow I forgot to note the difference between this raid and the one on trump's home in Florida. In the latter case they outlined which documents they might find and they found them! I wonder if we wil ever see the subpoena in this case!

Around the Traps 22/8/25

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Dennis Muller on bendigo-writers-festival-has-questions-to-answer-over-untenable-code-of-conduct-for-authors
• Nicole Townsend on new-research-shows-wwii-dominates-australians-knowledge-of-military-history-but-big-gaps-remain
• Ross Gittins on want-better-productivity-keep-wages-rising-strongly ,ive-changed-my-mind-about-red-tape-its-well-worth-cutting
• John Hawkins on with-just-three-days-to-inform-the-next-three-budgets-heres-how-chalmers-roundtable-kicked-off
• Richard McGregor on between-china-trump-little-wonder-australia-japan-have-lots-talk-about-even-if-not
• Nicki Hutley on economic-roundtable-winners-and-losers-australia-productivity
• Duygu Yengin on productivity-is-the-buzzword-of-the-week-but-were-not-making-the-most-of-half-the-workforce 
• Sassan Stone on taxpayer-bailouts-are-common-yet-rarely-make-economic-sense-heres-how-to-strike-a-better-balance 
• Jenny Bloomfield on re-inventing-productivity-wheel

OZ Climate

• waratah-australias-most-powerful-battery-smashes-output-record-again
  
• recycle-and-reuse-mandatory-new-rules-to-stop-millions-of-solar-pv-panels-going-into-landfill
  
• network-giant-flags-tipping-point-as-nsw-coal-dominated-grid-charges-towards-90-pct-renewables 
  
• australias-biggest-gas-advocates-are-quietly-swapping-out-peaking-plans-for-batteries 
  
• can-australias-electricity-market-finally-be-truly-efficient-for-consumers 
  
• times-up-solar-recycling-is-finally-on-the-political-agenda-but-is-it-too-late-for-some-investors 
  
• aemo-says-wind-solar-and-storage-keeping-energy-reliability-healthy-despite-leap-in-data-driven-demand 
  
• batteries-soak-up-pv-in-sunny-south-to-smash-charging-record-as-wind-blow-strong-in-sunshine-state 
  
• ausgrid-hopes-new-solar-pilot-can-help-break-the-boundaries-on-narrow-network-limits 
  
• the-solar-farm-that-winds-down-at-dusk-charges-up-for-dinner-and-is-still-generating-at-midnight 
  
• stunning-success-of-home-battery-boom-will-slash-rooftop-solar-exports-and-reshape-the-grid-again 
• Louise Grimmer et al on soft-plastics-recycling-looks-set-to-return-to-supermarkets-cutting-back-on-plastic-would-be-even-better
• Raphael Trouve et al  on climate-change-is-driving-a-silent-sinister-change-in-australias-mountain-ash-forests

Northern America

• institutional economics on the-macro-mob-called
• Brad De Long on hoisted-from-the-archives-trump-does-not-have-the-cognitive-competence-to-do-the-job , dementia-ridden-cognitively-addled-chaos-monkey-causes-chaos-at-alaskan-summit , trump-is-losing-all-his-trade-wars-badly
• Barry Eichengreen on trump-tariffs-exploit-overwhelming-force-like-falklands-war Thanks Nick
• Systematic Hatreds on nixon-won Thanks Nick
• Menzie Chinn on ppi-cpi , guest-contribution-monthly-household-income-estimates-at-the-white-house
• Kruggers on the-economics-of-stagflation-part 1 , iceing-the-us-economy , crime-and-self-promotion , kilowatt-madness
• angry bear on how-bad-is-crime-in-washington-d-c
• Alex Tabarrok on the-japanese-threat
• new deal democrat on the-muddied-historical-picture-of-ppi-vs-cpi , jobless-claims-suggest-our-recent-good-news-has-been-more-unresolved-seasonal-quirks
• the conversable economist on federal-reserve-independence-not-just-a-good-idea-its-the-law
• Ruth Marcus on pam-bondi-profile
• David Frum on show-immigration-caitlin-dickerson
• Brent Christophers on whose-fed-independent-central-bank
• Jonathan Blitzer on a-tale-of-two-jurists-in-the-trump-era
• Cristian Farias on can-donald-trump-police-the-united-states
• noahopinion on moderation-is-good-for-its-own-sake
• uneasy money on grok-karoline-leavitt-and-me
• Jeet Heer on trump-putin-alaska-ukraine-russia-foreign-policy
• Michael Steele on trump-statistics-crime-economy-health
• Zack Beauchamp on trump-dc-immigration-authoritarian-stephen-miller-democracy
• Liz Anderson on states-of-resistance
• Ed Pilkington on justice-john-roberts-supreme-court
• Andrew Prokop on john-bolton-fbi-raid-trump-retribution
• Fred Kaplan on trump-russia-putin-ukraine-zelensky-peace-talks

Europe

• Pedro Martins on russia-central-asia-are-quietly-embracing-taliban
• Mathew Sussex on putin-got-the-red-carpet-treatment-from-trump-where-does-this-leave-ukraine
• Iona Main on georgian-dream-now-nothing-nightmare
• Mick Ryan on why-putin-smiled-broadly-he-left-his-alaska-encounter-trump
• Thomas Wright on trump-ukraine-russia-peace
• Sonia Mycak on zelensky-leaves-washington-with-trumps-security-guarantees-but-are-they-enough
• Joshua Keating on ukraine-land-swap-territory
• Mary Harris on trump-putin-zelensky-russia-ukraine-invasion
• stumbling and mumbling on achieving-political-change
• Frank Ledwidge on kharkiv-what-i-saw-in-ukraines-unbreakable-eastern-capital

Asia

• UN women Australia on afghanistan-ten-ways-taliban-vanishing-women-public-life
• Clare Corbould on theres-no-such-thing-as-someone-elses-children-omar-el-akkad-bears-witness-to-the-destruction-of-gaza-and-the-wests-quiet-assent
• John Strawson on israels-opposition-against-benjamin-netanyahu-but-not-yet-for-peace-with-the-palestinians
• Amin Saikal on how-can-western-countries-back-up-palestine-recognition-with-action-here-are-4-ways-to-pressure-israel
• Khang Vu on kim-jong-un-builds-destroyers-his-grandfather-never-could-what-ends
• Faisal Edroos on libya-senior-official-secret-talks-israel-resettle-palestinians-gaza
• Daniel Flitton on how-india-us-relations-unravelled-trump-modi-timeline 
• Sanchari Ghosh on why-has-india-reimagined-its-role-vishwaguru-vishwamitra
• Hussein Ibish on palestinian-state-west-recognition
• Ran Porat on with-eyes-on-re-election-netanyahus-fights-with-world-leaders-aim-to-distract-from-many-political-problems
• Peninah Kansiime and Giselle Woodley on israel-is-on-notice-for-using-sexual-violence-against-palestinians-its-all-too-common-as-a-war-tactic
• Hussein Agha and Robert Malley on what-killed-the-two-state-solution

Wonk

• asterisk on why-are-there-so-many-rationalist-cults Thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on cautionary-tales-genius-still-unrecognised-the-worst-poet-in-the-world-2
• the conversable economist on using-royalty-payments-to-track-technological-leadership , voltaire-on-the-civility-of-markets , in-praise-of-editors , some-economics-of-leasing-antiquities
• Tyler Cowen on a-median-voter-theory-of-right-wing-populism , twin-studies-data-and-the-link-between-social-media-and-well-being , the-decline-in-reading-for-pleasure
• Kruggers on ai-is-power-hungry , what-happens-if-ai-hits-an-energy
• noahopinion on the-us-china-competition-is-on-pause
• Declan Humphreys on ai-free-from-bias-and-ideology-is-a-fantasy-humans-cant-organise-data-without-distorting-reality
• Alex Tabarrok on china-versus-the-us-in-the-competition-for-global-talent

General

• Phillip Almond on not-quite-angels-why-we-should-stop-calling-these-small-winged-children-cherubs
• Orsola De Marco on astronomers-have-glimpsed-the-core-of-a-dying-star-confirming-theories-of-how-atoms-are-made
• Laura Driessen on whats-a-black-moon-heres-why-its-worth-looking-up-at-the-sky-this-week

Climate

• Melanie MacGregor on the-global-plastics-treaty-process-has-fallen-flat-heres-what-went-wrong-and-how-you-can-help
• skeptical science on factheck-trump-climate-report-100-mistakes-or-misleading-claims , is-permafrost-really-a-climate-time-bomb , new_research
• Adam Morton  on voices-arguing-climate-crisis-action-is-a-waste-of-time-are-wrong
• Nerilie Abram et al on from-sea-ice-to-ocean-currents-antarctica-is-now-undergoing-abrupt-changes-and-well-all-feel-them
• 
  

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• pivoting-to-new-funding-sources-in-light-of-new-government-regulations
  
• two-cool-math-lectures-by-yuval-peres
  
• steering
  
• the-edlin-factor-strikes-again-the-crown-jewel-of-the-nudge-literature-finds-its-effect-cut-by-76 
• survey-statistics-answers-from-the-bls 
  
• i-guess-my-question-is-how-bad-must-it-be-before-retraction-becomes-appropriate 
  
• for-which-cases-does-ai-help-with-classification-medical-diagnosis-example
  
• the-folk-theorem-of-statistical-computing-fake-data-simulation-as-posterior-predictive-checking
  
• freakometrics on the (non)ethics of capitalism , disentangled deep smooth bootstrapfor fair imbalanced regression

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• econjeff on squanto-by-andrew-lipman , mr-smith-goes-to-prison-by-jeff-smith , book-voltage-effect-by-john-list , book-learn-to-write-badly-how-to-succeed-in-the-social-sciences
• John Quiggin on if-something-cant-go-on-forever-it-will-stop
• Tyler Cowen on capitalism-a-global-history-by-sven-beckert

Vox Wonk

• silver-spoon-becoming-more-important-netherlands
  
• how-wage-inequality-affects-labour-movement 
• adjusting-productivity-carbon-emissions-new-perspective-growth-slowdown
  
• revisiting-consequences-job-displacement
  
• how-donald-trump-should-have-tackled-us-trade-deficit 
  
• fentanyl-transnational-vector-violence
  
• exit-costs-are-entry-costs-why-india-needs-ease-exit-barriers-manufacturing-firms
  
• why-some-countries-win-world-trade-unpacking-export-competitiveness
  
• how-update-eu-merger-guidelines
  
• information-and-labour-market
  

A few things

 It is a miserable day in a miserable week in Sydanee.

Economic roundtable

Just bring in a price on carbon. you can get rid of a lot of regulations, rely on the market and improve the budget. Taking a good look at spending would mean a budget in balance without that much trouble!

Putin/ Zelensky meeting

This will never happen. Putin has never ever mentioned Zelensky by name. He does not believe Ukraine is a country. Putin likes meeting and talking to Trump as it gives the appearance of equals. He won't do Ukraine the pleasure of that.

If trump realised the problems of the Russian economy he would actually give Ukraine more military aid ( he is giving nothing at present) and together with Europe give Ukraine the weapons to beat Russia however this won't happen either.

Israel

Israel's Prime Minister gave Albo a spray which actually made him not Albo look weak. Tony Burke had a brilliant rejoinder.  Everybody was on Israel's side after October 7. Their behaviour since then have made Israel a  pariah state.

AEMO

we are informed by AEMO as more coal fired power stations 'retire' and less output for gas fired power stations our energy sector becomes more reliable!

boosting productivity

 I have to say I am in agreement with Ross Gittins. However I am getting ahead of myself. It is very hard to measure productivity. how do you measure productivity for teachers, nurses or any white collar job.

Productivity always depends on capitalists. They invest workers do not!

Thus if you want to boost productivity you surely must do two things. ( For Flying High fans do not call me shirley!) 

They are:

1. ensure you have competitive industries. Competition ensures higher productivity because companies are always looking for a competitive advantage ( in a Michael Porter way)
2. As Ross Gittins says ensure wages are rising strongly. Only boosting productivity will ensure profits are not hit badly in some cases and continue to rise in most cases.

Tariffs

 This will be brief.

Tariffs are only raised because domestic companies costs are too high in other words they are inefficient.

If you raise tariffs tariffs you raise costs. In Australia about three quarters of our imports are either capital goods or intermediate goods.

That being so companies can only have two responses. They absorb the costs and thus reduce profits or they pass on the higher costs and inflation rises.

The cost structure of domestic industry rises and inefficiency permeates the whole economy with exporters bearing the most pain. Domestic competition is lessened. Tariffs affect low income households the most as they must pay more of their incomes on higher priced goods.

We know all this as Australia experienced all this before Hawke and Keating reduced tariffs here. We used to pay a fortune for clothing for example.

In other words tariffs are bad news. they raise prices for the low income households and increase costs to exporters.

In the USA for example imposing tariffs will not mean more domestic coffee or bananas because of climate reasons.

stupid is as stupid does !!!

some people have lost their memories

 I cannot get over how some people have completely lost their memory over political history in the USA.

First a few facts.

1. Trump won in 2016 but easily lost the popular vote.
2. the 2018 mid-terms were a massive blue wave.
3. Trump easily lost the 2020 election.
4. There was NO red wave in the 2022 mid-term elections and few 'trump' candidates won
5. Trump's victory in 2024 was the smallest victory against the incumbent in the Western world
6. Trump is under water in most categories since gaining office immigration and the economy being the most prominent

When Trump won I confidently predicted the mid-terms would go to the Democrats because of his policies which were bonkers in terms of economics namely mass tariffs and mass deportations. I stand by that prediction.

I cannot get over how so many people , both Democrat and Republican, talk as though Trump won in an reagan/ nixon/ johnson landslide. He didn't. Trump showed last time he was incompetent and chaotic and this time he has even more incompetent people as cabinet secretaries.

Trump has now recognised how unpopular he is by wanting even greater gerrymandering in republican held states. Autocracy is not popular. Dirigiste  economics rarely works as we know only too well here is Australia.

Now there is talk of Trump suffering confabulation. It will only get worse!

The trouble is Trump and his allies have so poisoned US polity and government it will take a monumental task to reform it. Take the DOJ. It will take time to get rid of the sycophants and bring in seasoned lawyers to do the job the DOJ used to do before trump.

Around the Traps 15/8/25

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Bernard Keane on labor-justifies-gaza-silence-to-media Thanks Nick
• Anne Twomey on why-gareth-wards-challenge-to-the-power-to-expel-him-from-the-nsw-parliament-failed 
• Julian Pierce and Ross Guest on no-one-holds-the-government-to-account-on-spending-we-need-a-budget-watchdog-that-can-bite 
• Angel Zhong on the-asxs-rookie-error-is-just-the-latest-of-many-blunders-investors-are-losing-confidence
• Ross Gittins on official-modelling-shows-little-benefit-in-a-cut-in-company-tax , albanese-is-crying-poor-but-were-losing-billions-in-untaxed-gas , for-some-reaching-old-age-marks-a-historic-first
• Michelle Grattan on australia-to-recognise-palestine-state-next-month-at-the-united-nations
• Mark the Ballot on polling-update
• Stella Huangfu on the-rba-has-cut-rates-for-the-third-time-this-year-more-relief-may-be-on-the-way
• Peter Siminski and Roger Wilkins on the-government-has-asked-for-bold-proposals-maybe-its-time-to-consider-taxing-the-family-home
• Nicki Huttley on australia-obsession-with-interest-rates-economy-productivity
• croaking cassandra on one-more-treasury-oia-about-rb-spending
• Yuting Zhang on private-health-insurers-want-to-fund-more-out-of-hospital-care-but-the-productivity-commission-has-other-ideas
• Ken Henry on fixing-australias-broken-environmental-laws-is-the-only-way-to-improve-productivity-and-protect-our-natural-assets

OZ Climate

• no-one-likes-to-say-it-but-china-is-the-cybersecurity-elephant-in-the-renewable-energy-room
  
• eight-hour-battery-gets-firb-approval-as-loss-making-developer-seeks-key-funding-for-construction 
  
• australias-biggest-coal-state-to-hold-bigger-tenders-sets-new-stretch-target-for-wind-solar-and-storage 
  
• if-productivity-is-about-doing-more-with-less-electrification-of-our-cars-and-homes-is-a-no-brainer 
  
• agl-says-batteries-will-be-its-new-cash-cow-as-coal-fades-in-switch-from-baseload-to-grid-flexibility
  
• australias-biggest-energy-retailer-hits-go-slow-button-on-wind-and-solar-hedges-on-eraring-closure
  
• a-24-7-solar-battery-project-backed-by-gas-giant-joins-epbc-queue-as-another-gets-green-light
  
• humelink-transmission-line-finally-opens-up-to-wind-solar-and-battery-proposals
  
• Tim Cowan and Thong Nguyen-Huy on triple-whammy-how-3-types-of-drought-crippled-southern-australia-this-year
• Riona Moodley on from-reef-friendly-sunscreens-to-sustainable-super-greenwashing-allegations-are-rife-heres-how-the-claims-stack-up
• Rod Sims on australias-time-has-come-to-be-a-green-energy-intensive-export-superpower
• James Watson and Maximilian Kotz on 70-years-of-data-show-extreme-heat-is-already-wiping-out-tropical-bird-populations
• James Gilmour on safe-no-more-off-the-charts-marine-heat-has-severely-damaged-ningaloo-and-other-pristine-coral-reefs
• renew economy on heat-stress-leads-to-worst-bleaching-on-record-for-coral-reef-ecosystems

Northern America

• institutional economics on the-trump-put-paradox
• James O'Brien on michael-lewis-america-is-run-by-bullies Thanks Nick
• Yascha Mounk on the-singer-who-skewered-america Thanks Nick
• anecdotal value on the-technological-republic-review Thanks Nick
• salmagandi on from-philosophy-to-power Thanks Nick
• Mariana Mazzucato and Fausto Gernone on how-ai-profits-can-help-fund-cultural-production Thanks Nick
• the conversable economist on how-many-jobs-depend-on-exports
• Terry Nilles on trumps-economy
• Tyler Cowen on transitory-vs-permanent-tariffs , are-juries-racially-discriminatory
• David Bier on trump-mass-deportation-ice-profiling-latinos
• Kruggers on the-political-economy-of-incompetence , trump-plays-the-carnage-card , hackification , magas-feelings-dont-care-about-your , stagflation-shooting-the-messengers
• Menzie Chinn on america-in-recession-since-2022-a-critique-of-antoni-st-onge
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-03-in-july
• new deal democrat on the-consumer-inflation-transition-continues-as-shelter-prices-decelerate-further-and-other-sectors-show-some-re-acceleration
• Cameron Peters on trump-ej-antoni-bureau-labor-statistics-jobs-report
• Richard Heydarian on south-china-sea-collision-brings-us-philippines-alliance-fore
• Anne Applebaum on trump-state-department-human-rights-report
• Brian Klaas on trump-bls-antoni
• Fintan O'Toole on a-guy-who-never-dies
• Walter Schaub on weaponizing-the-watchdog-trump-ingrassia
• David Kirkpatrick on the-number
• Brad de Long on trumps-fed-chair-candidates-sub-mediocrity
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-brett-kavanaugh-netchoice-fitch-donald-trump

Europe

• the ruffian on keir-starmers-reality-avoidance-field Thanks Nick
• Harry Brighouse on bbc-radio-abroad
• Dilnoza Ubaydullaeva on why-us-not-russia-made-peace-former-soviet-south-caucasus
• Irana Skubii on trump-s-alaska-summit-putin-ignores-what-ukraine-s-territory-really-means

Asia

• Ian Parmeter on israel-is-deepening-its-war-in-gaza-here-are-5-big-questions-about-netanyahus-ill-advised-next-phase 
• Amin Saikal on as-netanyahu-moves-toward-full-takeover-of-gaza-israel-faces-a-crisis-of-international-credibility 
• Yaron Peieg on how-israels-self-image-changed-from-self-reliance-to-aggressive-militarism 
• Muhammad Raskhmat on asean-china-need-their-own-climate-compact
• Martin Kear on beyond-recognition-the-challenges-of-creating-a-new-palestinian-state-are-so-formidable-is-it-even-possible
• Vani Murali on trump-modi-can-t-ignore-trade-policy-power-india-s-farmers
• Kerry Brown on taiwan-faces-a-precarious-future-whether-or-not-us-and-china-continue-on-path-to-conflict
• Henry Yep on narrative-trap-how-we-can-misread-china
• Zack Beauchamp on israel-gaza-starvation-polls-public-opinion
• Adam Simpson on with-new-weapons-cash-and-battleground-experience-from-ukraine-north-korea-has-become-much-more-formidable
• Peter Greste on israel-must-allow-independent-investigations-of-palestinian-journalist-killings-and-let-international-media-into-gaza
• Iris Mackler on has-state-recognition-changed-the-game-in-gaza-only-for-the-deluded
• Arif Saba et al on after-4-years-of-repressive-taliban-rule-afghans-are-suffering-in-silence-is-the-world-still-watching

Wonk

• Ralph Leonard on the-right-doesnt-deserve-the-west Thanks Nick
• Elise Beal on Young_and_Meaningful Thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on the-law-of-unintended-consequences-strikes-again
• Evan Freidin on china-america-stablecoin-race-could-reshape-global-finance
• Kruggers on the-economics-of-smoot-hawley-2
• noahopinion on who-will-actually-profit-from-the-AI-boom , corporations-arent-the-reason-your-rent-is-too-high
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-cryptocurrencies-and-the-political-economy-of-money
• Christopher Pollard on how-the-neoliberalism-of-hayeks-bastards-changed-the-world-and-fuelled-the-rise-of-the-populist-right
• Deborah Dunn-Walters on rfk-jr-is-wrong-about-mrna-vaccines-a-scientist-explains-how-they-make-covid-less-deadly 
• the conversable economist on nathaniel-hawthorne-on-how-iron-stoves-ruined-society , learning-ai-and-john-searles-chinese-room , what-economic-ideas-are-true-and-nontrivial , summer-2025-journal-of-economic-perspectives-freely-available-online
• James Paterson on high-tech-drones-are-changing-warfare-terrorists-may-soon-follow-the-same-playbook
• Brad De long on i-see-the-substack-wars-have-started-up-again

General

• Milad Haghani and Ruggiero Lovreglio on how-do-scientists-estimate-crowd-sizes-at-public-events-and-why-are-they-often-disputed 
• Adam Brumm et al on this-stone-tool-is-over-1-million-years-old-how-did-its-maker-get-to-sulawesi-without-a-boat
• Laura Driessen on move-over-mercury-chiron-is-in-retrograde-what-even-is-chiron
• Keersten Fitzgerald on does-penis-size-matter-and-how-do-i-know-whats-normal
• 
  

Climate

• Melanie Pill and Meg Keen on world-court-tightens-tap-fossil-fuels
• Marina Bolotknikova on future-of-food-abundance-factory-farming-grunwald 
• moyhu on july-global-surface-templs-down-0011-from-june
• open mind on sea-level-rise-in-the-u-s-a
• and Then Theres Physics on is-there-a-conspiracy-to-ignore-challenging-new-ideas , getting-climate-risk-wrong
• skeptical science on iea-renewables-top-source-by-2026 , new_research
• Winnie Courtene-Jones et al on were-witnessing-last-ditch-talks-to-secure-a-global-plastic-pollution-treaty
• real climate on critiques-of-the-critical-review

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• art-buchwald-would-be-spinning-in-his-grave 
  
• the-rise-and-fall-of-bayesian-statistics 
  
• the-oldest-famous-person-2 
  
• survey-statistics-2nd-helpings-of-the-2nd-flavor-of-calibration
  
• autism-junk-science-the-only-part-of-this-story-that-surprises-me-is-that-the-outside-critic-found-it-hard-to-believe-just-how-flawed-it-turned-out-to-be 
  
• feynman-corner-we-have-access-to-a-lot-more-examples-than-we-used-to
  
• when-does-it-make-sense-to-talk-about-llms-having-beliefs
  
• statschat on success-rates
• no hesitations on on-tyrants-and-recalcitrant-statistical , on-tyrants-and-recalcitrant-statistical_12
• Kaiser Fung on story-first-governing

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• nuttin

vox wonk

• beyond-carbon-overlooked-benefits-fuel-taxation 
• unintended-consequences-lockdowns-evidence-violence-against-women
  
• charitable-giving-wartime-evidence-ukraines-war-fundraising
  
• eu-jobs-and-us-trade-navigating-change
  
• how-central-bankers-speak-about-climate-and-what-means-financial-markets
  
• recent-patterns-global-risk-behaviour-financial-markets
  
• italy-and-cost-unintelligible-laws-110-billion-euros-year
  
• re-evaluating-debt-and-deficits-inducing-high-interest-rates-us
  

penis size

 I have not felt well over the last couple of days however although I am late THIS article appears to be of great interest if penis sizes are of interest to you!!!

The RBA cuts rates

 The quite timid RBA cuts rates yesterday after the quarterly CPI confirmed what everyone else knew that inflation was falling into their target area.

At least from november they will have a comprehensive monthly CPI to assist them.  ( Hey Nick I saw your brother on TV discussing this)

The main question we must ask is how far should they cut to?  I have always advocated cutting to the neutral rate and then staying there to take breath as we do not need contractionary monetary policy.

BUT BUT BUT what is the neutraL state? It would appear somewhere between 3 and 3.5% so I saw move to 3.25% and leave it there.  

Fiscal policy is expansionary. I do not believe we need monetary policy to be expansionary as well.  We have to be wary of a recovery that is too strong

Australia recognises Palestine

 Yesterday the Australian government would recognise Palestine next month at the UN if certain conditions were met.

Well this should have occurred in 1948/9 just like Israel.

A couple of things before commenting.

Israel well David Ben-gurion used vicious jewish terrorists in 1948 which created the nakba.Two former terrorists have become Prime minister and like Yasser Arafat never apologized for their crimes. Hamas i nessence was created by Israeli intelligence services to provide a counter to Arafat and divide Palestine polity. West Bank settlers have killed nearly as many palestinians since october 7 as Hamas di in their murderous spree that day. In any other circumstances they would be called terrorists. There have been an average of 4 'incidents' each day this year.

There are a number of problems of recognising Palestine. 

1.  Israel has essentially made Gaza rubble. By bombing the 32 hospitals and the targeting of medical professionals their medium term objective is to 'encourage all palestinians to leave.
2. Israel has stolen land from the palestinians on the West Bank as well as turning a blind eye their killing thus Israel is taking more and more of the West Bank
3. It was envisaged that Palestine would be one country that is Gaza and the West Bank would be joined.

Who thinks Israel will give up any territory or help build what they have destroyed?

Many in Israel believe in a one state solution ( Israel) where palestinians have no rights.

Hamas cannot be part of any government. They have not only killed their own countrymen but their actions on October 7 has meant over 60,000 of them have been killed. ( Spare a thought for the christians there. Hamas hates them as they do not want to take revenge of Israel after their family members have been killed and Israel treats them as though they were muslims!)

I have said many times it would be very hard to see peace in this place as both peoples appear to hate each other with a violent passion. It is no coincidence that a lot of Israelis killed on october 7 were sympathetic to palestinians. Hamas wants to continue the hate and the killings. I see the same thing on the Israeli side so this problem needs a modern day mandela to succeed.

South Sudan

 I have been negligent in not writing about South Sudan.  As usual some else has done a brilliant job.

Read Anne Applebaum and weep.

Lots of different countries are there. There are Ukrainians there merely to kill the russians who are there!

Around the Traps 8/8/25

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ross Gittins on its-hard-not-to-hate-investors-when-the-property-game-is-so-unfair , roundtable-will-fix-nothing-unless-we-can-all-park-our-self-interest , pc-wants-our-big-mining-companies-to-pay-more-rent
• Liz Allen on australias-divorce-rate-is-the-lowest-its-been-in-50-years-why 
• Jason Nassios and James Giesieke on some-taxes-are-inefficient-at-any-level-even-modest-reforms-will-help 
• croaking cassandra on still-waiting-for-a-governor , reserve-bank-bits-and-pieces
• Jennifer Parker on australias-new-frigate-deal-with-japan-plugs-a-few-critical-holes-but-doesnt-come-without-risks
• Felicity Deane on economists-want-a-carbon-price-comeback-but-does-australia-have-the-political-courage
• croaking cassandra on thinking-about-the-mpc ,one-in-five-roles-could-go-at-the-reserve-bank

OZ climate

• tasmania-libs-defy-convention-to-pull-trigger-on-marinus-link-fid-and-bury-their-own-political-future 
  
• its-not-as-sexy-as-solar-but-energy-productivity-could-be-a-superhero-of-the-transition 
  
• energyaustralia-focuses-on-storage-as-retail-margins-crimp-its-wholesale-gains 
  
• why-australias-biggest-coal-state-is-so-excited-about-having-the-worlds-most-powerful-battery 
  
• physical-world-has-changed-the-contract-world-needs-to-catch-up-nelson-unveils-draft-market-reform 
  
• another-wind-project-emerges-to-tap-into-proposed-copperstring-line-opening-up-north-queensland 
  
• price-is-wrong-pc-advice-has-good-intentions-but-risky-outcomes-for-renewables 
  
• physical-world-has-changed-the-contract-world-needs-to-catch-up-nelson-unveils-draft-market-reform 
  
• wind-and-solar-droughts-have-a-bigger-impact-on-prices-than-on-reliability 
  
• australia-leads-the-world-on-rooftop-solar-now-it-needs-to-catch-up-with-how-to-manage-it
• behind-the-noise-get-ready-for-the-real-renewable-energy-transition
  
• nelson-reviews-plan-to-reshape-energy-markets-gets-warm-welcome-now-for-the-hard-part
• australia-can-cut-emissions-85-pct-by-2035-if-government-and-business-seize-the-moment
  
• Felicity Deane on economists-want-a-carbon-price-comeback-but-does-australia-have-the-political-courage
• Catherine de Fotenay on were-not-minimising-the-cost-of-the-net-zero-transition-these-reforms-will-help
• Graham Readfearn on glacier-shrinking-australia-remote-heard-island-sounds-alarm
• Daniela Ceccarelli et al on worlds-biggest-coral-survey-confirms-sharp-decline-in-great-barrier-reef-after-heatwave
• Anna Malos and Anna Skarbek on australia-can-hit-an-85-emissions-cut-by-2035-if-government-and-business-seize-the-moment

Northern America

• institutional economics on end-of-the-road-for-the-taco-trade
• Andrew Prokop on trump-jobs-economy-bls-fired
• Brendan Ballou on trump-appointments-emil-bove
• noahopinion on will-data-centers-crash-the-economy
• the conversable economist on federal-statistics-and-false-economies , the-us-auto-industry-evolving-not-evaporating
• Tyler Cowen on in-which-ways-is-the-bls-biased , why-the-tariffs-are-bad
• Kruggers on the-economics-of-smoot-hawley-20 , trump-is-getting-desperate-and-dangerous , the-paranoid-style-in-american-economics , about-that-stock-market , the-emperors-new-trade-deal , its-beginning-to-smell-a-lot-like-stagflation
• newdeal democrat on recession-watch-for-economically-weighted-ism-indexes-and-residential-construction-spending-continues , the-contradictory-signs-from-initial-and-continuing-jobless-claims-what-do-they-mean
• Jeet Heer on gaza-american-democracy-test
• Brad De Long on yes-kevin-hassett-would-be-a-very-bad-fed-chair
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-gallup-poll-popularity-trust
• Jonathan Lemire on trump-ukraine-gaza-economy
• Walter Shaub on weaponizing-the-watchdog-trump-ingrassia
• noahopinion on immigrant-memoir-comics

Europe

• Thomas Farzi on slovenia's nato rebellion Thanks Nick
• Karen Scott on why-uk-recognition-of-a-palestinian-state-should-not-be-conditional-on-israels-actions
• David Kirichenko on fibre-optic-drones-reshape-ukraine-s-technological-war
• Tyler Cowen on solve-for-the-equilibrium
• David Frum on show-ukraine-tim-mak-adrian-karatnycky
• stumbling and mumbling on the-political-communication-problem

Asia

• Kvetch on on-gaza Thanks Nick
• Paul Rodgers on uk-and-france-pledges-wont-stop-netanyahu-bombing-gaza-but-donald-trump-or-israels-military-could 
• Chietigj Bajpaee on shine-has-come-modi-trump-bromance-perhaps-india-us-relationship
• Amra Lee on air-dropping-food-into-gaza-is-a-smokescreen-this-is-what-must-be-done-to-prevent-mass-starvation
• David French on middle-east/israel-must-open-its-eyes-defeating-hamas-does-not-require-starving-a-single-child
• Shaheli Das on what-message-will-modi-take-if-he-attends-sco-summit-china 
• Sharon Thawayney on how-brics-could-become-global-south-s-climate-voice 
• Nicholas Moriesen on united-states-china-or-russia-who-writes-moral-code-artificial-intelligence
• noahopinion  on what-can-india-do-to-industrialize
• Ilan Noy on soaring-food-prices-prove-the-gaza-famine-is-real-and-will-affect-generations-to-come
• Erin Cook on prabowo-s-indonesia-draws-opposition-cartoon-pirates
• Zack Beauchamp on israel-gaza-aid-cut-off-strategy-humanitarian-disaster 
• Leonie Fleischmann on israels-plans-for-a-full-occupation-of-gaza-would-pave-the-way-for-israeli-resettlement
• Shirvin Zeinelzadah on where-next-for-khamenei-after-war-irans-supreme-leader-is-faced-with-difficult-choices
• Sean Turnell on myanmar-s-other-war-battle-financial-control
• Abdallah Fayyad on israel-famine-gaza-history-weaponizing-starvation-war
• Rodger Shanahan on netanyahu-never-had-a-plan-for-when-the-fighting-stops-so-how-can-the-war-end

Wonk

• Sean Illing on in the shadow of nietzsche and dostoesky Thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on whose-job-is-safe-from-ai
• Brad De Long on notes-on-substack-these-days , apple-computers-different-drummer-AI-path-considered
• Niven Winchester on new-trump-tariffs-early-modelling-shows-most-economies-lose-the-us-more-than-many 
• the conversable economist on shifting-markers-of-adulthood
• Greg Jericho on donald-trumps-war-on-statistics-is-an-authoritarian-attack-on-democracy-and-countries-like-australia-should-call-it-out
• Anne Applebaum on sudan-civil-war-humanitarian-crisis
• Elizabeth Finkel on trump-and-kennedy-are-destroying-global-science-even-einstein-questioned-facts-but-theres-a-method-to-it
• Matteo Boccia on sudan-america-china-take-very-different-tacks

General

• Konstantine Panegyres on the-great-mass-of-waters-killed-many-thousands-how-earthquakes-and-tsunamis-shook-ancient-greece-and-rome
• Mathew Sharpe on francis-bacons-essays-explore-the-darker-side-of-human-nature-400-years-on-they-still-instruct-and-unnerve
• Adam Smith on jane-austen-was-a-satirist-why-isnt-she-treated-like-one
• Laura Driessen on move-over-mercury-chiron-is-in-retrograde-what-even-is-chiron

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on the-new-doe-climate-report 
• open mind on sea-level-mis-information-from-doe , sea-level-rise-in-nyc , u-s-government-makes-old-lies-new-again
• Nigel Stork and Adam Sharp on butterflies-beetles-and-other-tropical-insects-are-being-devastated-by-climate-fuelled-el-nino-events
• David Appell on arctic-sea-ice-extent-nearing-12-month-low
• skeptical science on new_research

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• measurement-error-in-the-strike-zone 
  
• you-can-cite-peer-reviewed-research-in-support-of-almost-any-claim-no-matter-how-absurd 
  
• should-you-place-more-trust-in-scientists-if-they-are-intellectually-humble 
  
• a-paper-by-dorothy-bishop-on-the-replication-crisis-from-1990 
  
• survey-statistics-bls-jobs-report 
  
• two-philosophers-reportedly-lie-about-a-position-taken-by-another-philosopher 
  
• beyond-averages-measuring-consistency-and-volatility-in-nba-player-and-team-offense 
  
• real-examples-are-good-mile-run-example
  
• white-house-nyc-mayoral-race-strategy-life-imitates-blog
  
• statschat on where-are-they-now-asthma , official-statistics
• Marc Bellamare on a fools errand
• Kaiser Fung on one-solution-to-omnys-math-problem

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

vox wonk

• explaining-firm-level-reactions-macro-shocks 
  
• why-globalisation-needs-leader-hegemons-alignment-and-trade
  
• violent-conflict-and-cross-border-lending
  
• risks-new-international-trade-landscape
  
• transmission-liquidity-shocks-through-non-bank-financial-intermediaries-evidence
  
• childhood-friendships-and-gender-equality-paradox-education
  
• global-shocks-institutional-development-and-trade-restrictions-learning-crises
  
• china-shock-hits-germany