The Palestinian lobby needs better advice

 The Palestinian 'lobby' really do behave as if they have no brains.

At best Israel is engaged in war crimes and massive (attempted)  ethnic cleansing at worst it is engaged in genocide.. The government is losing support bigtime by claiming there is no starvation in Gaza amongst other things. 

Thus people see the problem in Gaza in a very sympathetic light. This should be a slam dunk for the Palestinian lobby yet they are doing their best to change this.

Invading a restaurant in Melbourne and shouting slogans to peoples faces is not winning any new friends. Indeed it is  losing potential friends and even current friends.

Wanting to march on the Harbour bridge is highly unusual ( I can only recall it for a reconciliation march back when Howard was PM) . Not only are demonstrations rarely held on the harbour bridge it also hits motorists hard of which there are a large number in Sydney.

Demonstrations held in Australia are held to attempt to influence governments. Please cogitate on that

even moar Epstein

 One of the reasons why this issue keeps on keeping on is people wanted to know WHY Trump is in the epstein files.

I have said before I do not believe he is guilty of a crime to do with minors so Trump must deem the reasons he is in there VERY embarrassing because otherwise he would release the file.

It is also important to realise until the file is released all this controversy will continue.

This issue should also show Trump and his advisors are no political geniuses.

I would like to write moar but electricity is being cut today!!

Recognising Palestine

 Macron has stated France will recognise Palestine as a country later this year.

Should australia do the same?

I have come down in favour. At present Israel is unquestionably doing all it can so there will be no two state solution.

In Gaza it is making the area uninhabitable and when combined with the bombing of the 32 hospitals there as well as targeting of health professionals 'encourages' people to leave Gaza. In the West Bank it allows israeli terrorists to kill palestinians at will and allows the stealing of palestinian property .

Recognising Palestine would  place pressure on Israel to desist. It does not guarantee this will happen but it might.

It would also allow Western countries to assist Palestine with elections and governance. 

Black Sabbath

 I definitely did not like Black Sabbath. Vastly over-rated and very average musicians however since the vocalist died I found one song of theirs I liked ( holy Johnny Farnham batman)

Around the Traps 25/7/25

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Guy Rundle on on-the-segal-report Thanks Nick
• Bernard Keane on the-quiet-trade-offs-shaping-australian-policymaking Thanks Nick
• croaking cassandra on big-scary-numbers , rating-our-ministers-of-finance , bad-behaviour-orr-quigley-and-the-rest , willis-and-quigley-questioned , bad-behaviour-an-update
• Robert Hortle on after-yet-another-election-tasmanians-are-left-wondering-what-the-point-of-it-was
• Ross Gittins on how-chalmers-can-fix-budget-despite-stagnant-productivity , cutting-hecs-debt-is-not-best-way-tohelp-the-young
• Melissa Coade on did-whitlams-dismissal-really-trigger-an-australian-constitutional-crisis-in-1975 Thanks Nick
• Greg Jericho on the-biggest-voices-need-to-admit-australia-is-a-low-taxing-nation-before-joining-the-economic-reform-conversation
• Felicity Deane on australia-says-us-beef-will-soon-be-welcome-here-again-its-unlikely-well-buy-much-of-it

OZ Climate

• gridlocked-the-ridiculous-rules-that-trap-farmers-and-their-solar-systems-behind-their-own-fences
  
• who-is-going-to-control-and-manage-household-solar-batteries-and-evs-it-needs-a-rethink-of-the-power-system
• controversial-plan-to-burn-wood-in-shuttered-coal-generator-approved-but-heads-for-independent-review
  
•  hundreds-of-air-cons-and-1000-hot-water-heat-pumps-cut-costs-boost-comfort-in-social-housing
• chinese-wind-turbine-giant-enters-australian-market-with-promise-of-price-cuts-and-huge-pipeline 
  
• bunnings-launches-zero-up-front-offer-for-home-batteries-and-rooftop-pv 
  
• no-solar-factories-protests-greet-farmers-and-industry-trying-to-find-path-for-renewable-revolution 
  
• household-battery-rebate-smashes-forecasts-could-deliver-twice-the-energy-of-snowy-hydro-by-2030 
  
• overburdened-transgrid-wants-to-spend-179m-on-control-systems-to-keep-up-with-transition-from-coal 
  
• solar-battery-hybrid-project-forced-to-ipc-due-to-weight-of-opponents-half-of-whom-live-more-than-100-km-away 
  
• australia-needs-to-get-to-net-zero-in-just-10-years-but-its-environmental-laws-are-in-the-way
  
• Jochen Kaempf on south-australias-algal-bloom-may-shrink-over-winter-but-this-model-suggests-it-will-spread-to-new-areas-in-summer
• Wesley Morgan and Gillian Moon on worlds-highest-court-issues-groundbreaking-ruling-for-climate-action-heres-what-it-means-for-australia

Northern America

• Nathan Hitchen on america-s-rebel-empire Thanks Nick
• Felix Martin on scott-bessent-debt-plan-has-awkward-historic-echo Thanks Nick
• Brad De Long on friday-macro-fed-independence-as-your-screentime-limit-phone-app , policy-uncertainty-not-ai , note-to-self-on-katie-martins-magificent-seven
• Lisa Rubin on maurene-comey-firing-trump-epstein
• Menzie Chinn on tariffs-in-the-data , cea-imported-goods-have-been-getting-cheaper-relative-to-domestically-produced-goods , guest-contribution-recession-detection-along-the-anticipation-precision-frontier , bertaut-von-beschwitz-and-curcuru-frb-the-international-role-of-the-u-s-dollar-2025-edition , guest-contribution-global-shocks-institutional-development-and-trade-restrictions-what-can-we-learn-from-crises-and-recoveries-between-1990-and-2022
• the conversable economist on does-the-us-benefit-when-the-us-dollar-is-the-global-reserve-currency , trying-to-soften-up-the-federal-reserve , only-five-ways-to-address-us-budget-deficits , so-why-has-rural-housing-become-less-affordable
• Kruggers on the-economics-of-immigration-and-deportation , enshittification-and-the-bitterness , about-that-japan-deal , the-general-theory-of-enshittification , the-art-of-the-really-stupid-deal
• Liz Anderson on hes-the-boss-unitary-executive-theory-and-workplace-authoritarianism
• Roger Farmer on tariffs-and-the-trade-deficit
• Drezners world on six-months-of-consequential-fascism Thanks Brad
• Michael Cohen on trump-unabomber-story-biden-cognitive-decline
• Andrew Dodd and Mathew Ricketson on could-rupert-murdoch-bring-down-donald-trump-a-court-case-threatens-more-than-just-their-relationship
• Kate Yoder on national-climate-assesment-trump-administration-climate-science-data-purge
• Dahlia Lithwick on myth-supreme-court-john-roberts-trump-oz
• Eric Schliesser on on-the-epstein-files-and-corruption
• Ian Millhiser on  supreme-court-voting-rights-act-turtle-mountain-howe , supreme-court-emil-bove-conservative-case , supreme-court-voting-rights-act-turtle-mountain-howe
• Andrew Prokop on jeffrey-epstein-scandal-trump-democrats-conspiracy-theories
• Mark Stern on trump-deal-pam-bondi-new-jersey-alina-habba
• Cristian Farias on a-federal-trial-reveals-the-sprawling-plan-behind-trumps-attacks-on-pro-palestinian-students
• Fred Kaplan on donald-trump-pete-hegseth-signalgate
• noahopinion on should-democrats-go-back-to-neoliberalism

Europe

• the ruffian on why-are-we-so-bad-at-grasping-difficult-things thanks nick
• David Kirichenko on bang-buck-why-kyiv-rushing-scale-drone-interceptors
• stumbling and mumbling on stagnation-get-used-to-it
• writing from london on trump-always-chickens-out-putin-doesnt
• Mick Ryan on why-putin-keeps-making-same-ukraine-mistakes
• Menzie Chinn on signs-of-a-slowing-russian-economy-cbr-drops-rate-200-bp

Asia

• Brian Brivati on iarael-netanyahu-considering-early-election-but-can-he-convince-people-hes-winning-the-war
• Rushali Saha on why-dalai-lama-s-succession-matters-trump-s-china-policy
• Shameek Godara on trump-s-big-beautiful-bill-domestic-deal-indo-pacific-consequences
• Abhinjinan Rej on india-s-naxals-why-do-they-fight
• Donna Weeks on upper-house-election-exposes-japan-s-fragmenting-political-landscape
• Justina Szczudlik on chinese-peacekeepers-ukraine-would-be-win-win-beijing
• Amra Lee on suffering-in-gaza-reaches-new-depths-australia-condemns-inhumane-killing-of-palestinians 
• noahopinion on the-anti-immigration-backlash-comes-to-japan
• Shantanu Roy-Chaudhury on behind-zhong-sheng-pseudonym-understanding-china-s-official-diplomatic-voice
• Vincent Parada on japan-wants-offload-six-destroyers-should-philippines-take-them
• Doha Kahlout on the-road-from-gaza
• Lisa Singh on dalai-lama-s-succession-moment-global-solidarity

Wonk

• institutional economics on abundance-yimby-neo-liberalism-and-libertarianism
• Brad De Long on martin-wolf-on-thomas-mann-and-his-the-magic-mountain thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on notes-on-the-resistant-reader
• Tyler Cowen on are-tariffs-a-regressive-tax
• noahopinion on stop-pretending-you-know-what-ai-does-to-the-economy
• sandwichman on the-accumulation-of-capital-is-very-limited
• Kruggers on has-brazil-invented-the-future-of-money
• Aarti Betigeri on trump-modi-s-shared-blueprint-concentrating-power-repressing-dissent
• John Simon and Eric Wang on central-bank-independence-and-credibility-matters-heres-why 
• Intifah Chowdury on short-form-video-apps-are-creating-generation-mind-jolts-shrugs-slugs-what-means
• Hugh Piper on daddy-diplomacy-politics-obsequiousness

General

• Theresa Larkin on trump-has-chronic-venous-insufficiency-is-it-dangerous-can-it-be-treated

Climate

• skeptical science on new_research , how-climate-change-supercharges-deadly-heatwaves , renewables-decreased-electricity-prices , new_research
• essays concerning on is-climate-inaction-the-new-denial
• Bin Lu and Marnie shaw on how-evs-and-electric-water-heaters-are-turning-cities-into-giant-batteries
• real climate on national-climate-assessment-links
• Jaqueline Peel on historic-ruling-finds-climate-change-imperils-all-forms-of-life-and-puts-laggard-nations-on-notice

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• i-am-no-longer-chairing-defenses-or-joining-committees-where-students-use-generative-ai-for-their-writing
• game-theory-as-applied-to-the-nyc-mayoral-election
  
• a-small-group-of-mathematicians
  
• whats-the-range-of-uncertainty-regarding-the-population-of-the-americas-in-1492 
  
• survey-statistics-a-new-paradigm
  
• validity-and-deduction-in-causal-inference 
• an-evaluation-scheme-for-sampling
  
• the-two-faces-of-academic
  
• statschat on good-nitrate-bad-nitrate , briefly , most-commonly-reported
• freakometrics on when voting becomes paradoxical

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• a-miscellany-of-reading
  
• Constance Grady on best-books-2025-susan-choi-flashlight-marriage-at-sea-sophie-elmhirst
• stoat on book-review-greek-science

Vox Wonk

• pricing-profit-shifting
  
•  subnational-debt-turbulent-times-navigating-fiscal-risks-and-market-inefficiencies
• artificial-intelligence-and-workers-wellbeing-lessons-germanys-early-experience
  
• pentecostal-evangelicals-vehicle-political-mobilisation
  
• the-emergence-north-south-divide-age-profile-europeans-life-satisfaction
  
• detecting-hidden-state-aid-machine-learning
  
• value-words-evidence-non-financial-disclosure-regulation
  
• basel-endgame-bank-capital-requirements-and-future-international-standard-setting
  
• us-china-high-tech-friction-and-japans-response-implications-comparison-innovation
  
• transmission-foreign-shocks-import-prices-firm-firm-networks
  

Mark Latham

 I first met Mark Latham shortly after he 'retired' to the back bench because of a dispute with Kim Beazley. Chris Richardson mentioned he was one of the more impressive ALP mps and after meeting him I agreed. He was well read ( OECD stuff in particular) and held views on some topics that would not endear him to some ALP mps.

I met him again at a birthday party of a fiend of mine that john Hewson also attended.

He became leader by a fluke. Simon Crean was leader but at that time newspoll did not do preferences so as Peter Brent constantly said the innumerate ALP caucus went nuts on polls they should not have.

The 2004 election was interesting. both ALP and Liberal polling was similar to Morgan who got the original votes correct but not the preferences. I do recvall being told by ALP types it could be a 1969 election whereas Liberal types were going for a 1961 result.

So why did Latham  go to Whacko land after this. My theory  (and remember I have not studied any psychology subjects) he changed after getting a health attack twice in quick time which usually meant death in the not too distant future.

As proof he became enemies of almost everyone. He was a decent columnist at the AFR until a blowup. This occurred time and time again.

He is now involved in court action with an ex-partner ( I hate that term.) Until we get the verdict in that case we should wait. Latham like all other people is innocent until found guilty.

I do find Latham a great shame. He WAS a man of great talent and then attempted to make as much money as possible. Both Hawke and Keating did that so no problem there. However he did become a Labour rat and this explains why he is now held in such a low regard by a lot of people.

the Tasmanian election

 I simply do not get tasmania

The Teamnaaian budget is in a mess. Only the Liberals are to blame yet their vote increased. say what.

I note Saul eslake said the ALP had $1b of spending cuts and then joined the koolaid group by spending most of it on other areas.

Do any of the Independents really care about fiscal rectitude at all? I do not know but I suspect not.

The Liberals have clearly been in power too long but it seems the ALP got blamed for the early election.

Nick Gruen has shown spending on a new football stadium is worse than useless. Tasmanians apparently wil watch their local team play aussie rules and not care about the financial repercussions. Then there are the ferries which are designed so they cannot get into a port down there.

It is possible the next election might see more independents than  people on either the Liberals or ALP.

Gaza

 These two say it  far better than I could over Gaza.

Listen to Rest is politics

I want to add something however. Israeli apologists are wont to saying they have to go in hard on Hamas meaning innocent Palestinians have to be killed because Hams invaded Israel once and murdered innocents and they will do it again.  Say what. Hamas was only able to to do these evil acts BECAUSE both the Israeli government and the security forces were asleep at the wheel. That is why it has only occurred once and will not ever occur again.

To say it could is assuming both the government and security forces are totally incompetent!!!

Moar Epstein

 Just as MAGA get entirely riled by Trump on Epstein we get a classic example of cognitive dissonance.

The Wall Street journal which is a very respectable newspaper ( as opposed to their editorial page) published an article which showed donald trump sent a letter  to epstein's 50th birthday bash.

Trump said he didn't write it. He does not use the word enigma. Alas various TV networks showed him saying this very word in a number of speeches. He said he didn't WRITE pictures. Well he is right no-one writes pictures!! however again we got various examples of trump drawing pictures. Then he said he didn't use the ahem bawdy language. Access hollywood anyone. The WSJ said he signed the message. Whoa.

Despite the paper being the WSJ, despite all this mountain of evidence MAGA goes berserk saying in effect this is a setup.

Trump sues for libel on this very issue. I am very sceptical of this legal action. The bar for public figures is very high although do not discount the Supreme court making up new law on this however discovery would make this very embarrassing for trump as well as all the TV coverage way back then. Unless trump is banking on the Supreme court again I see this legal action being dropped soon.

Whoopsy I see this is being heard in Florida sso Trump is hoping Eileen Cannon will be the judge. Hmmm

Around the Traps 18/7/25

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Chris Richardson on one-step-forward-one-step-back-the-debate-activity Thanks Nick
• Frank Bongiorno on what-happened-to-the-liberal-party-of-menzies-they-became-obsessed-with-virtue-signalling
• Matteo Vergano on the-special-envoys-antisemitism-plan-is-ambitious-but-fails-to-reckon-with-the-hardest-questions
• Ross Gittins on we-should-be-paying-more-for-our-energy , if-rba-is-muddled-on-interest-rates-we-will-all-suffer , trump-wants-us-to-spend-bomb-on-defence-why-exactly , like-chatgpt-we-need-clear-goals-and-rules-on -the-environment
• James Laurenceson on albaneses-china-mission-managing-a-complex-relationship-in-a-world-of-shifting-alliances
• Louise Chappell on antisemitism-plan-fails-on-a-number-of-fronts-a-contentious-definition-of-hate-is-just-the-start
• John Hawkins on treasury-warns-the-government-it-may-not-balance-the-budget-or-meet-its-housing-targets
• Andrew O'Neil on aukus-ultimatum-australia-over-taiwan-risks-backfiring-washington
• Jennifer Parker on aukus-building-confidence-australia-s-submarine-pathway
• Liz Hicks on federal-court-rules-australian-government-doesnt-have-a-duty-of-care-to-protect-torres-strait-islanders-from-climate-change
• Angel Zhong on no-more-card-surcharges-what-the-reserve-banks-proposed-changes-mean-for-your-wallet
• croaking cassandra on what-were-the-minister-and-treasury-doing , reserve-bank-planned-spending-12-up-on-2023-24 , a-few-more-bits-from-recent-rb-releases
• Kevin Bonham on bradfield-court-of-disputed-returns
• Phillippa McCormack on ken-henry-urges-nature-law-reform-after-decades-of-intergenerational-bastardry
• Nicki Hutley on protecting-the-environment-has-always-made-economic-sense-now-we-have-proof
• Jeff Borland on why-a-surprise-jump-in-unemployment-isnt-as-bad-as-it-sounds
• Bill Swannie on australian-law-is-clear-criticism-of-israel-does-not-breach-the-racial-discrimination-act
• Madelaine Perrett and Mark Giancaspro on what-does-australian-law-have-to-say-about-sovereign-citizens-and-pseudolaw
• Frank Rose on aukus-will-be-worth-work-china-s-alarm-shows-why-trump-should-get-onboard

OZ Climate

• marinus-costs-blow-out-to-more-than-5-billion-but-backers-insist-it-is-still-value-for-money
  
• wind-and-solar-farms-shut-down-as-giant-super-battery-tests-its-shock-absorber-function-for-first-time 
• the-lights-have-stayed-on-in-australia-even-as-more-wind-and-solar-is-added-to-the-grid
• wind-and-battery-output-records-smashed-as-new-projects-close-in-on-key-milestones
  
• critical-national-battery-hub-in-doubt-after-state-lnp-government-cuts-100-million-in-funding
  
• chinese-pv-giant-proposes-huge-solar-battery-hybrid-project-to-tap-into-major-new-industrial-loads
  
•  giant-gold-mine-switches-off-gas-and-diesel-for-first-time-after-completion-of-largest-off-grid-hybrid-system
• aemo-puts-grid-forming-batteries-and-household-devices-at-centre-of-roadmap-to-100-pct-renewables
  
• albaneses-green-steel-boost-leaves-queenslands-coal-budget-hopes-in-the-dust
  
• Alison Reeve on whats-happened-to-australias-green-hydrogen-dream-here-are-5-reasons-the-industry-has-floundered

Northern America

• institutional economics on yet-another-taco-tuesday
• Nina Jankowicz on investigations-john-brennan-james-comey-are-political-retribution
• Kruggers on i-dont-disapprove-of-trumps-strategy-because-he-doesn't-have-one , making-immigration-great-again , for-maga-ignorance-is-strength , hawks-doves-and-lapdogs
• Fred Kaplan on russia-trump-james-comey-john-brennan-cia-john-ratcliffe-russiagate
• Tim Harford on taco-the-trade-that-ate-itself
• noahopinion on why-tariffs-havent-raised-inflation-much-(yet)
• Jeff Tiedrich on hillary-wrote-the-epstein-files-claims Thanks Brad
• Brad De Long on whats-going-on-with-trumps-trade-wars , the-federal-reserve-today , moar-pointless-sanewashing-of-trump , is-zohran-mamdani-the-second-coming-of-lenin , central-banking-in-the-age-of-chaos-monkey-threats-to-chaos
• Zack Beauchamp on anti-liberal-moment-end-trump-ahmari-moyn , trump-epstein-maga-rebellion-populism
• Aaron Blake on deportations-backfiring-trump-analysis
• scotus blog on how-2024-supreme-court-term-fits-into-history-of-roberts-court
• Dahlia Lithwick on ketanji-brown-jackson-supreme-court-federalist-society
• Austin Sarat on ice-los-angeles-judge-ruling-profiling-immigration
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-02-in-june
• Robert Walker on america-first-approach-trade-tariffs-only-getting-started
• Mark Stern on supreme-court-trump-department-of-education-disaster
• Nitish Pahwa on donald-trump-jeffrey-epstein-list-conspiracy-maga
• the conversable economist on can-the-financial-plumbing-handle-growing-treasury-debt
• Nicole Narea on trump-immigration-raid-ice-farm-economy-medicaid
• Eric Levitz on trump-tariff-letters-medicaid-cuts-mass-deportation
• Peter Wehner on trump-epstein
• David Frum on david-frum-show-peter-strzok-fbi
• Jonathan Chait on trump-epstein-obama-boring
• Sussan Glasser on did-donald-trump-really-just-break-up-with-vladimir-putin
• Abdallah Fayyad on white-collar-crime-trump-department-of-justice-enforcement-priorities
• newdeal democrat on producer-prices-consumer-prices-and-tariffs
• Jeet Heer on culture/trump-podhoretz-militarism-antisemitism
• Mimi Rocah on emil-bove-trump-federal-judge-nomination-senate-letter
• Russell Moore on jeffrey-epstein-files-pam-bondi-nixon-trump
• Mark Hertzgaard on trump-confederacy-slavery-racism
• Elle Mystal on mahmoud-khalil-lawsuit-government
• Mimi Roach on emil-bove-trump-federal-judge-nomination-senate-letter

Europe

• Helen Andrews on how-australia-stopped-grooming-gangs Thanks Nick
• Ayushi Saini on nuclear-waste-nuclear-reactor-case-russia-kazakhstan
• Fred Kaplan on yrump-russia-putin-ukraine-war-news-announcement
• William Gourlay on making-greater-russia-again
• Udi Greenberg on how-nazism-ended-centuries-of-catholic-protestant-enmity
• David Appell on europe-175000year-dead-from-heat

Asia

• Belinda Clarence on what-is-the-strait-of-hormuz-and-why-is-it-so-important-for-global-shipping
• Shannon Bosch on israels-rafah-camp-humanitarian-city-or-crime-against-humanity
• Mireille Rebeiz on a-weakened-iran-and-hezbollah-gives-lebanon-an-opening-to-chart-path-away-from-the-regions-conflicts-will-it-be-enough
• Ali Mamouri on the-us-has-high-hopes-for-a-new-gaza-ceasefire-but-israels-long-term-aims-seem-far-less-peaceful , why-is-israel-bombing-syria
• Lei Weiyi and Asha Hemrajanri on can-malaysia-nudge-asean-beyond-non-interference-tackle-scam-crisis-myanmar
• renew  economy on worlds-most-powerful-floating-offshore-wind-turbine-rolls-off-production-line-in-china
• Ian Johnson on lessons-of-the-father-xi-zhongxun-hu-yaobang
• noahopinion on trump-is-enabling-chinese-power
• Jackson Lopez on fallacy-vietnam-s-bamboo-diplomacy
• Nikola Mikovic on central-asia-s-new-playlist-sounds-russia-s-fading-cultural-influence

Wonk

• claires substack on when-women-are-radicalized Thanks Nick
• wealth of nations on back-to-the-future Thanks Nick
• the one percent rule on the-cia-empire-by-other-means Thanks Nick
• Owen Linling on conservatives-must-resist-ai-accelerationism Thanks Nick
• stumbling and mumbling on some-leftist-economic-policies
• the conversable economist on interview-with-carmen-reinhart , tradeoffs-of-lower-fertility-rates
• Kruggers on inequality-part-vii-crypto , the-road-to-mechahitler
• Heather Wrathall on taxing-world-s-most-generous-givers
• noahopinion on developing-countries-a-follow-up
• Tyler Cowen on why-is-manufacturing-productivity-growth-so-low ,revisiting-the-interest-rate-effects-of-federal-debt

General

• Aaron Cavosie and Alec Brenner on earths-oldest-impact-crater-is-much-younger-than-previously-thought-new-study
• Ian Sample on scientists-detect-biggest-ever-merger-of-two-massive-black-holes

Climate

• real climate on ocean-circulation-going-south
• essays concerning on the-elephant-no-scientists-in-the-room
• skeptical science on update-texas-flooding , fact-brief-pre1940 , study-of-earth-surface-temperature-history
• open mind on the-air-they-breathe
• Laura Wilcox and Bjorn Samset on cleaner-air-in-east-asia-may-have-driven-recent-acceleration-in-global-warming-our-new-study-indicates

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• swept-up-like-dorothy-into-the-chilly-vortex-of-the-films-inexplicable-logic
  
• error
  
• i-dont-understand-this-paper-claiming-election-fraud-in-2024-in-pennsylvania
  
• hey-this-journal-is-pretty-much-inviting-me-to-do-ai-reviews-of-submitted-manuscripts
  
• hey-neurips-and-icml-time-to-do-some-scraping-of-your-submissions-to-find-the-prevalence-of-llm-reviewer-instructions
  
• a-bunch-of-readings-and-a-new-book-on-bayesian-meta-analysis
  
• survey-statistics-longitudinal-panel-data
  
• song-for-aki-prof-reportedly-clears-a-half-million-bucks-by-requiring-online-students-to-pay-89-99-each-for-his-self-published-course-notes
  
• slouching towards utopia
• i-am-no-longer-chairing-defenses-or-joining-committees-where-students-use-generative-ai-for-their-writing
  
• statschat on counting-homelessness , chicken-soup-for-the-body , briefly
• freakometrics on life insurers can predict when you die with about 98% accuracy

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• n
• Constance Grady on best-books-2025-susan-choi-flashlight-marriage-at-sea-sophie-elmhirst
• Joel Eissenberg on the-world-for-sale-book-review
• Tyler Cowen on buckley-the-life-and-revolution-that-changed-america

Vox Wonk

• beyond-tariffs-chinese-state-owned-enterprises-trade-war 
• dynamism-generative-ai-markets-release-chatgpt
  
• more-i-do-legal-status-and-cultural-distance-shape-marriages-and-separations
  
• interlocking-directorates-and-competition-banking
• supply-side-monetary-policy-how-floating-rate-loans-blunt-ecbs-fight-against 
• adult-skills-and-productivity-new-evidence-piaac-2023
  
• lessons-rebuilding-ukraine-economic-recoveries-after-natural-disasters
  
• new-geopolitical-context-europes-banking-discussions-need-go-beyond-competitiveness
  
• how-european-consumers-respond-us-tariffs
  
• fighting-mafia-boosts-bank-lending-and-local-growth
  
• wars-taxation-and-representation
  

Prelude to the Ashes

 Well we have had two more tests. What did we learn?

England

Smith is the real deal and potential matchwinner. Archer is back and is quick. Carse is quick ( and will get quicker in OZ) and can swing the ball. Stokes is undeniably inspirational. His run-out and his lengthy spells in the second innings were just that and his captaincy was back at very good after a poor 2nd test. He actually got to 69 mph on occasions.  Some-one always hits a score as well. Their spinning stocks are poor.

Australia

We have batting problems. However our fast bowlers gets us out of problems. They used swing and seam in particular really well. Just remember the WI bowlers were faster than them and given they were bowling to much better batsmen much more impressive. Remember too our bowlers will only get slower not faster!

The last two seasons has seen fast bouncy bowler friendly pitches where spin bowlers get little action. Which team will this favour?

I cannot wait.

The eptstein crap

 Sorry but I cannot get excited about the Epstein saga. He was involved in getting minors so makles could have sex with them. THE reason people get excited about this is because both Bill Clinton and Donald Trump was in his orbit.

HOWEVER neither Clinton nor Trump ever had any history of having sex with minors. Although both were serial adulterers those acts were with adults. In clinton's case he was a charmerand a smooth talker. Trump simply used his position of power.

It is ironic that the Trump forces who alleged conspiracies about Epstein are now getting hammered by their own supporters because they believed this guff and think the government is part of the deep state.

From where I stand the only reason why all the documents have not been released is because there is something embarrassing in them. Embarrassing but not illegal.

The point is this is not going away.

A small point to make. One of the ways the Administration did to make this issue go away was to launch a DOJ investigation of both Comey and Brennan.

Two problems here.

1. The statue of limitations on this issue is 5 years and it is about 8 1/2 years since it 'occurred'. Moreover Durham spent millions investigating this issue and interviewed Brennan for 8 hours and fought noughi
2. They are setting themselves to fail again and upset the maga faithfull. There is no evidence but maga won't believe that!

While we are talking about Israel

 Somehow I found a site called The rest is politics on youtube. This episode is compelling. Indeed I feel I should nail my colours to the mast after hearing it.

I agree Israel is committing genocide. There were 32 hospitals in Gaza. All have been bombed on the assertion Hamas had sites under them or hamas operatives were sheltering there. NO evidence have been provided for these assertions. As the Israelis have banned any journalists in Gaza it is the IDF's word against palestinians living in Gaza ( and medical staff.)

If you want to ensure people leave a certain place then 1) deplete any medical outlets and 2) ensure people have little access to food and water. Perhaps even roundup all the population into a small piece of land and tell them they cannot leave unless they go to another country.

Almost every NGO says one thing is happening in Gaza and Israel says something else. Again who to believe? I will always go to doctors without borders rather than the IDF.

Finally it is readily apparent Israel has a one party state in mind. They want to get rid of all palestinians in gaza and then in the West Bank they steal palestinian land and allow terrorists to murder palestinians willy nilly.

No wonder this land is full of hate.

It is both depressing and seemingly hopeless

Albo has to be wary on anti-semitic policy

 No-one who is rational believes anti-semitism should exist let alone be allowed to be publicly supported.

Jillian Segal brought down a report on the subject. She apparently does not understand what some of her key recommendations means.

See :

• Ben Saul
• Louise Adler
• Steve Cannane

Defining anti semitism is hard. ( On a related issue the Nazis found it very hard to define a jew!) If you get it wrong criticism of Israel becomes anti-semitism. The Israeli PM always uses this line to deflect criticism of Israel.

Segal in an interview on radio national showed this by criticism an ABC storey on Gaza. What di that story have to do with anti-semitism? Nothing. It conflated the two topics

So you introduce laws which reduce comment on the middle east. 

The australian government needs to be very careful. 

Around the Traps 11/7/25

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Heidi Norman on a-defiant-stand-histories-of-australias-frontier-wars-are-revealing-their-true-complexity-but-theres-more-to-be-done
• Sam Roggeveen on clock-ticks-towards-pentagon-aukus-review-deadline
• John Edwards on why-albanese-echoing-curtin-s-call-america
• Stella Huangfu on interest-rates-are-on-hold-at-3-85-as-the-reserve-bank-opts-for-caution-over-mortgage-relief
• Xanthe Mallet on a-shakespearean-small-town-murder-why-australia-became-so-obsessed-with-the-erin-patterson-mushroom-case
• Nicki Hutley on the-rbas-decision-to-hold-rates-isnt-a-calamity-but-its-shift-in-language-is-confounding-and-worrying
• Josh Butler on australia-antisemitism-plan-recommendations-and-why-some-are-causing-concern
• Matteo Vergani on the-special-envoys-antisemitism-plan-is-ambitious-but-fails-to-reckon-with-the-hardest-questions
• Michelle Grattan on envoys-plan-to-fight-antisemitism-would-put-universities-on-notice-over-funding
• Ben Saul on australia-must-combat-antisemitism-but-not-simply-defer-to-demands-of-some-voices
• Louise Adler on the-special-envoys-plan-is-the-latest-push-to-weaponise-antisemitism-as-a-relentless-campaign-pays-off

OZ climate

• how-pumped-hydro-could-help-get-south-australia-all-the-way-to-100-pct-renewables
  
• orica-lands-funding-for-green-ammonia-hub-as-another-2-billion-put-on-table-for-hydrogen-hopefuls
  
• neoen-proposes-australias-biggest-battery-next-to-gigawatt-scale-forest-wind-project
  
• australia-may-need-twice-as-many-big-batteries-to-make-up-for-lost-wind
  
• australian-scientists-build-quantum-battery-with-instantaneous-charge-1000-fold-gain-in-storage
  
• australia-fast-tracks-four-big-wind-solar-and-storage-tenders-in-coming-months-to-meet-2030-target
  
• two-regional-queensland-airports-turn-to-solar-to-cut-energy-costs-protect-the-reef
  
• marinus-costs-blow-out-to-more-than-5-billion-but-backers-insist-it-is-still-value-for-money
  
• want-to-slash-energy-bills-the-solutions-start-at-home
  
• wind-farm-bird-protection-tech-a-success-with-no-new-eagle-deaths-and-barely-a-dent-in-revenue
  
• if-data-centres-can-be-built-in-canberra-then-why-not-the-riverina
  
• Graham Readfearn on australians-could-cut-power-bills-by-90-if-they-made-their-homes-more-energy-efficient-report-finds

Northern America

• Brad De Long on trumpxit-and-the-likely-undoing-of-american-exceptionalism , ninety-days-for-zero-deals , this-is-not-an-administration
• Alan Elrod on adoption-belonging-and-the-question-of-citizenship Thanks Nick
• Garry Kasparov on zohran-mamdani-is-the-democratic-establishment's-fault Thanks Nick
• can we still govern on whos-afraid-of-zohran-mamdani Thanks Nick
• institutional economics on from-liberation-day-to-independence-day
• noahopinion on how-to-take-our-country-back
• Menzie Chinn on the-age-of-angst-macro-implications
• Kruggers on real-men-burn-stuff the-tariff-beatings-will-continue-until-morale-improves , build-baby-build , trumps-dictator-protection-program , should-we-politicize-the-texas-flood-absolutely
• Dylan Scott on measles-outbreak-cases-vaccine-trump-rfk
• Nitish Pahwa on texas-floods-marjorie-taylor-greene-weather-manipulation-conspiracy-theories
• Abdallah Faayad on zohran-mamdani-racism-islamophobia-nyc-mayoral-race
• David Frum on welcome-to-the-mafia-presidency
• Samuel Corne on new-us-directive-for-visa-applicants-turns-social-media-feeds-into-political-documents
• Eric Levitz on trump-medicaid-cuts-democrats
• Mark Stern  on neutral-supreme-court-principle-democratic-presidents-only
• Fred Kaplan on trump-news-ukraine-weapons-hegseth-rubio-russia-putin
• new deal democrat on two-important-danger-signals-in-the-june-employment-report
• unpopular front on jd-vances-anti-declaration thanks Brad
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on ketanji-brown-jackson-vs-amy-coney-barrett-history , bush-judge-birthright-citizenship-scotus-lawsuit
• Shane Harris on cia-note-russia-hoax
• Jeet Heer on pete-hegseth-chaos-pentagon-resign
• Zack Beauchamp on trump-tik-tok-letters-dispensing-power-king
• Ruth Marcus on why-a-devoted-justice-department-lawyer-became-a-whistle-blower
• Lisa Rubin on emil-bove-whistleblower-justice-department-email-confirmation

Europe

• Fred Kaplan on trump-news-ukraine-russia-putin-weapons

Asia

• Julie Norman on a-new-gaza-ceasefire-deal-is-on-the-table-will-this-time-be-different
• Juliet Rogers on whose-agony-is-greater-than-mine-testimonies-of-gaza-and-october-7-ask-us-to-recognise-shared-humanity
• Brendan Clift on hong-kongs-light-fades-as-another-pro-democracy-party-folds
• Ali Mamouri on the-us-has-high-hopes-for-a-new-gaza-ceasefire-but-israels-long-term-aims-seem-far-less-peaceful
• Robert Walker and Hilman Palaon on indonesia-prabowo-s-populism-clashes-economic-realities
• Shannon Bosch on israels-rafah-camp-humanitarian-city-or-crime-against-humanity
• Nava Nuraniyah et al on indonesia-targeted-rafale-fighter-jet-disinformation
• Michael Cunningham on china-coup-rumours-xi-jinping-s-decline-are-premature
• David Schulman on netanyahus-war
• Isaac Chotiner on the-war-on-gazas-children

Wonk

• Peter Viereck on conservatisms-humanist-road-not-taken Thanks Nick
• Adam Wey on gallipoli-strait-malacca-why-maritime-choke-points-still-decide-fate-nations
• Tim Harford on why-is-modern-commerce-corrosive
• noahopinion on the-elite-overproduction-hypothesis , at-least-five-interesting-things , free-market-economics-is-working-surprisingly-well
• the conversable economist on e-b-white-on-the-meaning-of-democracy , how-much-will-ai-increase-productivity
• Guita Hourani on protection-paradox-how-refugee-law-fails-those-fleeing-failed-states
• Mark Pierce on war-stories-our-fascination-grease-guts-conflict
• the conversable economist on latin-america-a-lost-century-for-catch-up-growth
• Amalendu Misra on brics-is-sliding-towards-irrelevance-the-rio-summit-made-that-clear
• Filipe Porto on brics-rio-bigger-yet-emptier-ever
• Jon Whittle on does-ai-actually-boost-productivity-the-evidence-is-murky
• Ian Kemish on srebrenica-30-why-turning-point-international-justice-still-matters
• R N Prasher on end-equality-century-political-correctness

General

• Vinod Balasubrahamanian on lyssavirus-is-rare-but-deadly-what-should-you-do-if-a-bat-bites-you
• Kirsten Banks on astronomers-have-spied-an-interstellar-object-zooming-through-the-solar-system
• Nicolas Flament and Annalise Cucchiaro on where-do-giant-volcanic-eruptions-come-from-new-study-finds-missing-link-to-blobs-deep-within-earth

Climate

• Omid Gasemi on experiencing-extreme-weather-and-disasters-is-not-enough-to-change-views-on-climate-action-study-shows
• open mind on heat-wave-hotspots
• moyhu on june-global-surface-templs-down-0047-from-may
• Damian Carrington on climate-crisis-melting-glaciers-ice-caps-volcanic-eruptions-chile-antartica-volcanoes
• skeptical science on the-great-acceleration-debate , new_research
• real climate on the-war-on-gazas-children
• Bill McKibben on46-billion-years-on-the-sun-is-having-a-moment
• Corey Bradshaw et al on melting-ice-will-strengthen-the-monsoon-in-northern-australia-but-cause-drier-conditions-north-of-the-equator

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• the-universal-baseball-association-inc-j-henry-waugh-prop-as-a-metaphor-for-fiction
  
• getting-rid-of-the-scientist-as-hero-model-without-replacing-it-by-the-someone-else-is-hero-model
  
• chatbot-prompts
  
• coleridges-principle-and-the-difference-between-scientific-and-literary-criticism
  
• survey-statistics-imputation
  
• letter-of-recommendation-speak-exaggeration-in-hero-worship-reaches-the-new-yorker
  
• bayesian-inference-is-not-what-you-think-it-is
  
• statschat on briefly, just-one-hot-dog-a-day
• Freakometrics on collectively rethinking disasters , when the numbers mislead us 
• Kaiser Fung on know-your-data-46-using-our-data-to-set-pricing, will-ai-make-cheaters-of-us-all

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• a-miscellany-of-reading
  
• John Edwards on are-we-getting-in-our-own-way Thanks Nick
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• how-ss-great-britain-overcame-tyranny-distance
  
•  rethinking-social-protection-sustainability-what-people-want-and-dont-want
• investment-funds-and-euro-disaster-risk
  
• market-implications-industrial-subsidies
  
• grexit-debate-ten-years-what-we-have-learned
  
• how-firms-navigate-parental-leave-evidence-austria
  
• services-trade-and-environmental-sustainability
  
• making-supply-shock-tariff-propagation-domestic-production-networks
  
• macroeconomic-effects-introducing-central-bank-digital-currency
  
• inflation-targeting-its-current-state-and-key-challenges
  
• early-job-mentoring-placement-and-training-boost-refugee-integration-without-high
  

The RBA has lost confidence

 First of all all of us has the same information the RBA has.

We know the disinflationary forces are at work. The trend has been there for a long time. ( Why oh why do we not have monthly CPIs that has all the data of the quarterly CPIs?)

The previous month we had a monthly CPI seeming out of whack with all the previous ones and inflation might be a problem. Last month's CPI showed that was a one-off probably  an outlier. Essentially Bullock is saying she has no confidence in monthly CPIs

The labour market is not a problem. most of the growth has been in the non-market sector. Hence wages have never been a problem.

Although fiscal policy is stimulatory it is not that large.

The case is there to cut and cut now. I am of the opinion we go to the neutral rate ( say 2.5%) and then wait as the economy is not booming but stuffed because of interest rates.

The RBA has patently lost confidence in making decisions and therefore waits like all people ddo with no confidence.

the mushroom trial

 Having been on juries I won't second guess their verdict. They heard the evidence and I didn't.

I have two questions that have not been answered.

1. Death by those mushrooms is terrible for the person. You would only do it if you hated the people intensely yet the evidence suggested quite the opposite.
2. She was apparently quite impressive in her 8 days of cross examination sso she is quite intelligent BUT the murder was committed by a moron.It was not very hard for the police to get to the bottom of the crime

Where is Hercule Poirot when you need him!!

how Britain became great

 The Uk is a small island so how in the hell di it get to have the greatest empire in history.

Read how-ss-great-britain-overcame-tyranny-distance

Prelude to the Ashes

 Well two more tests. Let us have a look.

England

England's much vaunted batting lineup failed under pressure. Two things of note. It is unlikely we will have roads in the Ashes given the past seasons thank God. Their batsmen are quite suited to batting under our conditions.

England clearly need to find more pace bowlers. Woakes won't come to Australia. They also need another spinner. Bashir will be money for jam out here.   Is Stokes still a test batsman?  He also had a stinker as captain.

Australia

If the WI could bat and catch we would be losing 2-0 not winning 2-0. Our bowling is still fantastic but is aging and thus will not intimidate the poms. Our batting order is still not sorted out and our selections stil reek of over confidence which blew up against SA.

The Ashes looks to be a good competitive series.