Who does Trump think he is kidding

 Donald Trump is the lowest of low IQ Presidents in my lifetime. It showed up bigtime when he went to war with Iran. He di not ask any decent questions and ignored some advice. see Tom Nicholls.

The 'short' war blew up in his face ( pun intended). The USA wasted for example patriot missiles against Iran. Those missiles did not help in subduing Iran at all. the USA again showed it is poor against asymmetric warfare . This should not be a surprise. the white house still believes russia is winning well against Ukraine ( who need patriot missiles now).

Given an airforce is unlikely to win a war  and it didn't even given Iran's decrepit defences then taking control of the strait of hormuz and therefore hiking up petrol prices was always going to hurt Trump politically more so in a mid-term year.

Thus any threats from Trump towards Iran are hollow and Iran knows it. Unlike trump they neither have to worry about their citizen's plight nor care.

Any further increases in 'war' will lead to a rise in petrol prices and thus hurt Trump. Trump know this , Iran knows this add to this how unpopular the war is and y

You can see how trump is kidding himself.

FIFA is a disgrace (again)

 The decision to remove the one match suspension for the american forward was a disgrace. The only time I can remember a  player being sent off and then playing was the great Roger Garrincha however back in 1962 there was no mandatory suspension.

At this stage FIFA has not even bothered with the excuse why the suspension was over-ruled. It becomes more worrisome when both actors in this situation are corrupts.

The Belgians were obviously fired up for the match whereas Trump's efforts appeared to have the opposite effect on the USA. As it was most people were barracking for Belgium because if the USA won there would be a dreadful stench about the result ( and future matches).

The World cup thus far had been a success. We cannot say that now. hopefully FIFA will have a new president after the cup is over!

If you want to do something about affordability then house prices have to fall

 I was amused to hear Dan Tehan both cheering for falling house prices and bewailing the fact they are falling.

We have a housing affordability problem and this has come about because housing prices have raced ahead of wage increases.

Thus either wages have to increase bigtime , which is impossible because of the inflationary consequences, or housing prices have to fall.  Read THIS article 

Thus far housing prices have started to fall ( because of rising interest rates) and this has contributed marginally to reducing affordability. The main target is to reduce housing prices without inducing a recession.

This is why most people would like to see housing prices continue to fall!

Poppa got it wrong ( again)

 Poppa was a genius against Turkey however his selections made no sense in the next three games.

Let us just take the game against Egypt.

Behich was awful. He was constantly beaten down the ,left side and was responsible for the goal against us. Irvine was equally bad. He gave away silly freekicks and turned over the ball too often. We rarely looked like scoring a goal because of the formation. The substitutes made no impact and I thought were brought on for the penalty shootout. Why didn't specialist penalty takers take the penalties .Why were the three central defenders selected?

What was it with Irankunda. He played a blinder against turkey and scored, could have scored again as a WINGER. He was then selected as a striker. He is 5' 7"  thus he is rarely going to score from a cross. We had no creativity in the midfield. This was always going to occur after Robertson was told to go home.

On the positive side we have a young side. Beach is great. Our central defenders are superb. Bos is something special. We need a right back.

Give Robertson a chance in the midfield as we  need it.

Volpato and Yengi  should be partnered as should Irankunda and Toure.

We have to look forward to the Asian cup and we have the players to attack so we should.

Poppa is too defensive and thus we give our opposition too much respect ( and ball in matches ). It is ironic that Ange would be ideal now.

I should add I am sick of the socceroos being underdogs. We have the talent to be better. So when teams are in the same group they fear us and are worried they will get beaten.

The Asian cup will make or break Poppa.

Around the Traps 3/7/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ryan Heath on oh-theres-a-gap-in-the-analysis-of-pauline-activity Thanks nick
• Kos Samaras on at-the-press-club-the-real-world Thanks nick
• Matteo Vergani et al on new-study-of-2-million-online-posts-shows-persistent-anti-jew-and-anti-muslim-hate-in-australia
• Emily Foley and Bec Strating on coherence-one-nation-would-bulldoze-australian-foreign-policy
• Louisa Jones on how-does-australias-migration-system-actually-work-5-common-myths-busted
• Mark Cully on australia-was-built-on-migration-but-its-long-been-a-love-hate-relationship
• Nicki Hutley on world-economic-crisis-government-response
• Emily Foley on migration-is-dropping-but-public-concern-is-climbing-why
• Patrick Commins on australia-mortgage-burden-above-1989-levels

OZ Climate

• swiss-commodity-trader-gets-approval-to-buy-zen-retail-business-and-ppa-deals-will-it-take-on-big-3
  
• game-changer-for-evs-australian-battery-pioneer-lands-45m-grant-for-silicon-anode-that-boosts-energy-density
  
• households-are-about-to-be-offered-3-hours-of-free-power-who-should-sign-up-and-who-should-think-twice
  
• if-australia-is-serious-about-1-5c-it-needs-to-shut-down-coal-by-2034-and-install-a-lot-more-solar-and-batteries
  
• landmark-deal-to-power-ai-factories-underwrites-much-needed-big-battery-on-australias-most-renewable-grid
  
• australias-abundance-of-renewables-can-power-future-industry-but-we-need-it-resilient-and-we-need-it-fast
  
• solar-sharer-is-here-offering-free-power-to-all-will-it-level-the-playing-field-or-benefit-batteries-most
  
• giant-remote-zinc-mine-aims-to-reach-at-least-80-pct-renewables-with-addition-of-wind-farm-and-big-battery
  
• one-year-on-cheaper-home-batteries-has-changed-the-grid-now-its-time-to-redesign-the-energy-market
  
• one-in-17-australian-homes-now-has-a-solar-battery-as-total-installs-sail-past-450000-at-one-year-mark
• Milton Speer and Lance Leslie on could-this-be-australias-warmest-winter-ever

Northern America

• Brad De Long on the-casual-destruction-of-usaid , i-am-glad-lisa-cook-rightly-gets-to-keep-her-job-as-federalreserve governor , is-kevin-warsh-as-bad-a-central-banker-as-he-seems-perhaps , what-exactly-is-sven-beckertian-capitalism , trump-surrendered-the-strait-of-hormuz-to-iran-and-emptied-the-shelves-of-americas-arsenal
• noahpinion on the-democrats-have-their-own-maga , stop-screeching-about-immigration-and-get-smart-about-it
• Kruggers on corruption-for-make-benefit-glorious-family-of-trump , the-court-sides-with-dictatorship , a-verdict-on-the-slaughter , there-are-very-few-socialists-in-america
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-trump-slaughter-cook-unitary-executive , supreme-court-watson-rnc-absentee-ballots-barrett-alito , supreme-court-birthright-citizenship-trump-barbara
• Mark Stern on supreme-court-john-roberts-autocracy , supreme-court-birthright-citizenship-scandal-brett-kavanaugh
• Richard Hasen on supreme-court-roberts-barrett-bonkers-voting-case
• Charlie Warzel on reflecting-pool-america-250-trump
• Zack Beauchamp on trump-power-agencies-slaughter-supreme-court
• David Graham on vance-watergate-news-cycle-comments
• Ruth Marcus on the-supreme-courts-check-on-trumps-power-was-too-close-for-comfort
• Tanvi Misra on the-unraveling-of-afghan-asylum
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on brett-kavanaugh-trump-attack-birthright-citizenship-fail
• Maria Glover on supreme-court-trump-cases-power
• Fred Kaplan on donald-trump-spy-list-russia-china-cia
• Anne Applebaum on america-250-july-4-idea
• Ruth Marcus on the-supreme-courts-check-on-trumps-power-was-too-close-for-comfort
• Lisa Needham on birthright-citizenship-ruling
• new deal democrat on june-employment-report-weakly-positive-headlines-and-important-negatives-in-hours-and-payrolls
• the conversable economist on us-exports-imports-and-tariffs-the-250-year-perspective

Europe

• Felix Martin on uks-back-to-front-net-zero-plan-requires-revamp Thanks nick
• noahpinion on europes-resistance-to-ac-is-driving-it-insane
• Rob Mainwaring and Emily Foley on andy-burnhams-meteoric-rise-tells-us-much-about-how-politics-and-power-are-changing
• mainly macro on sowing-seeds-of-uk-revival
• Cory Alpert on ukraine-stopped-waiting-for-the-war-to-end 
• Claire Young on russia-s-antarctic-posture-provokes-but-don-t-invoke

Asia

• the abrahamic metacritique on a metacritique of palestine  Thanks nick
• Jennifer Parker on despite-its-best-efforts-iran-wont-be-able-to-toll-the-strait-of-hormuz-heres-why
• Shannon Bosch on a-un-report-details-the-overwhelming-scale-of-children-killed-in-gaza-it-raises-grave-legal-questions
• Christopher Watterson on international-efforts-to-end-north-koreas-nuclear-weapons-program-have-failed-heres-what-comes-next
• Abhijnan Rej on why-india-s-roach-revolt-fizzled-out
• Lyne O'Donnell on five-years-after-returning-to-power-the-taliban-face-less-isolation-than-ever
• Jennifer Hsu on the-world-cup-china-is-winning-off-the-pitch

Wonk

• institutional economics on the-ever-lovely-and-the-oil-contango
• Luke Hartigan on central-bank-gold-holdings-are-at-a-50-year-high-whats-behind-the-jump-in-reserves
• Venkat Raman on the-new-political-logic-of-global-tech-and-trade
• Brad De Long on semi-crosspost-enzo-traverso-the-centiries-of-hobsbawn
• Mark the Graph on weekly-energy-update , update on the iran war 
• Alan Gamlen on what-is-migration-for-how-national-needs-wrestle-with-a-basic-human-desire
• Alicia Herrero on washington-and-beijing-cut-a-trade-deal-europe-picks-up-the-tab
• noahpinion on will-ai-make-companies-outsource-more-or-less
• the conversable economist on where-will-the-jobs-come-from-in-developing-economies , interview-with-mervyn-king-all-things-monetary-policy
• Eric Schliesser on on-humphreys-opacity-reverse-engineering-and-social-externalities-of-llms
• Mathew Ricketson and Andrew Dodd on how-the-murdoch-medias-loyalty-to-israel-births-hypocrisy-attacks-and-failed-journalism
• Katie Atwell on we-cant-entirely-blame-covid-vaccine-mandates-for-lower-vaccination-rates-today-its-not-that-simple

General

• Andrew Baker on we-checked-2000-museum-specimens-and-discovered-a-tiny-new-ferocious-australian-mammal
• Paul Giles on guide-to-the-classics-john-steinbecks-east-of-eden-has-always-been-controversial
• Md Ahmad on what-makes-a-star-a-star-a-strange-in-between-celestial-object-is-testing-astronomers-boundaries

Climate

• Larelle Bossi on global-ocean-protection-is-no-simple-equation
• skeptical science on new_research , ClimateAdam-is-climate-change-ramping-up-el-nino-risks
• open mind on not-just-another-summer , central-england-temperature , new_research
• Vito Burtardo on a-severe-el-nino-could-threaten-something-essential-to-half-of-humanity-rice
• ocean acidification on climate-change-and-aquatic-ecosystems-impacts-on-salinity-species-survival-and-ecological-resilience , entering-the-era-of-directly-supporting-society-with-observation-based-ocean-acidification-data
• John Quiggin on the-state-of-nuclear-power-in-2026
• Mathew England et al on the-worlds-oceans-are-the-hottest-on-record-for-june-and-el-nino-is-set-to-turn-up-the-heat-even-more

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• bayesian-workflow-exists-as-a-physical-book
  
• cheapskate-evolutionary-biologist-underpays-his-statistical-help 
  
• ok-i-guess-lawrence-krauss-didnt-follow-his-brothers-advice 
  
• survey-statistics-big-changes-in-the-times-siena-poll
  
• the-optimizers-curse
  
•  whos-getting-the-big-money-donations-in-the-maine-u-s-senate-race
• the-high-cost-of-split-r-hat
  
• Tim Harford on the-surprising-power-of-simple-predictions
• Kaiser Fung on key-decisions-when-making-heatmaps

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• David Zetland on our-man-in-havana
• Constance Grady on great-american-novel-250-moby-dick-huck-finn-beloved
• stoat on book-review-rise-of-western-world
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• chinas-accession-wto-increased-pollution-coal-powerplants-not-exporters-or-their 
  
• ai-productivity-and-work-evidence-us-firms 
  
• when-trust-official-statistics-declines
  
• hedging-interest-rate-risk-when-it-matters-evidence-italian-banks 
  
• exchange-rate-communication-practice-evidence-two-decades-ecb-press-conferences 
  
• chatgpts-financial-advice-supply-demand-and-life-cycle
  
• monetary-policy-under-multiple-financing-constraints
  
• research-value-added-elite-economics-phd-programmes
  
• living-ghost-town-geography-depopulation-and-ageing
  
• price-delay-how-supply-chain-disruptions-spread-consumer-prices
  

The US Supreme court is corrupt

 The US supreme court made up some law to declare immunity for Donald Trump. No-one but no-one thought they would ream up some rubbish.

They have now upheld the 14th amendment which is very clearly stated but 4 justices want to argue black is white. It is a disgrace.

See:

• Ian Millhiser
• Mark Stern

The World Cup

 we are about halfway through the world cup and it has to be said the increase in teams has not led to blowouts very much. Cape Verde actually got through to the group of 32.

I do not understand why games are played during the day given the USA, Canada and Mexico are in summer.

My only beef is some of the UK's great commentators are calling the games. The incomparable Peter Drury is thank the lord and so is Martin Tyler ( time to retire I think) but some of those we are used to viewing the EPL are not.

Just on that when is SBS going to replace David Basheer ( and luke wiltshire). both are poor and almost ruin a socceroos game.

I think we can best Egypt but France look good to win the cup. They were awesome against Sweden