Around the Traps 5/12/25

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Bernard Keane on labor-lie-robodebt-freedom-of-information Thanks Nick
• Adrian Lee on heres-what-new-debt-to-income-home-loan-caps-mean-for-banks-and-borrowers
• Alex Simpson on is-australia-in-a-youth-crime-crisis-heres-what-the-numbers-say
• Zane Goebel on australians-risk-becoming-strangers-our-own-region
• croaking cassandra on a-few-charts-updated
• Zoe Staines et al on with-a-sneaky-tweak-the-government-has-made-welfare-recipients-guilty-until-proven-innocent
• Michelle Grattan on albanese-government-shies-away-from-tougher-recommendations-from-jobs-for-mates-inquiry
• Imogen Richards on euphemisms-and-false-balance-how-the-media-is-helping-to-normalise-far-right-views
• Hangga Fathana on australian-universities-waning-soft-power
• Michael Shoebridge on want-fix-defence-start-cutting-bureaucratic-bloat
• Greg Jericho on australia-economic-growth-big-drivers-shape-matters-size
• Stella Huangfu on australian-economic-growth-is-solid-but-not-spectacular-rate-cuts-are-off-the-table
• Ian Gribble on australia-bets-old-laws-manage-new-ai-risks
• Ross Gittins on the-economy/the-economy-is-picking-up-pace-what-about-the-speed-limit

OZ climate

• massive-backtrack-from-australias-most-bullish-coal-miner-signals-shift-in-fossil-fuels-long-game
  
• tomago-and-beyond-why-australia-will-celebrate-snowy-2-0-someday
  
• australias-most-advanced-renewable-grid-is-its-most-secure-but-nsw-must-scramble-as-it-nears-no-coal-scenario
  
• australias-biggest-coal-generator-may-be-phased-out-unit-by-unit-rather-than-a-hard-exit
  
• we-have-the-best-site-contracts-for-australias-biggest-wind-project-put-out-to-tender
  
• australias-biggest-syncon-about-to-start-work-in-victoria
  
• we-wont-need-spinning-machines-will-big-batteries-be-allowed-to-provide-heartbeat-of-a-grid-with-engines-off
  
• rooftop-solar-back-on-a-roll-as-new-system-installs-ride-the-battery-boom-to-a-2025-high
  
• worlds-largest-ccs-project-hits-new-low-on-amount-of-carbon-captured-and-stored
• australias-first-six-gigawatt-hour-battery-to-be-built-as-part-of-massive-multi-tech-grid-resiliency-hub
  
• new-1-5-gigawatt-wind-project-backed-by-local-farmers-and-with-big-battery-in-tow-hits-epbc-queue
  
• data-centres-urged-to-bring-their-own-wind-solar-and-big-batteries-so-they-dont-trip-the-grid
  
• how-solar-and-big-batteries-are-shaping-a-new-global-gas-market-reality-and-what-it-means-for-australia
  
• memo-to-lnp-aemc-says-slowing-renewables-sweating-coal-a-recipe-for-20-pct-power-price-hike
  
• renewable-energy-czar-locks-onto-near-neighbour-insurance-fears-offers-national-fix
  
• developers-need-to-show-how-renewables-can-power-rural-ambition-co-ownership-is-one-option
  
• dont-rush-to-raise-fixed-electricity-charges-we-need-to-reform-network-regulation-first
  
• giant-50-kwh-systems-eat-up-cheaper-home-batteries-budget-as-changes-to-rebate-look-likely
  
• agl-backed-offshore-wind-farm-pulls-out-of-contention-for-gippsland-zone
  

• Justine Bell-James et al on long-sought-environmental-law-reform-is-finally-here-but-will-the-compromise-deal-actually-protect-nature
• Samantha Hepburn on will-the-governments-new-gas-reservation-plan-bring-down-prices-yes-if-it-works-properly

Northern America

• Geoff Shellenberger on the-death-of-the-conservative-prestige Thanks Nick
• noahpinion on the-140000-poverty-line-is-very-silly , americas-mayors-are-right-to-support-small-business
• Kruggers on affordability-part-i , trump-pro-crypto-or-pro-crime , trump-to-disaster-victims-drop-dead , eggs-gas-and-lies , magas-affordability-crisis-will-soon
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-how-will-unsustainable-us-debt-end
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-trump-slaughter-unitary-executive
• angry bear on road-to-tyranny-is-paved-with-hate
• Jonathan Lemire on trump-white-house-travel-rallies-isolated
• unpopular front on yeah-what-is-post-liberalism-anyway thanks Brad
• Tom Nicholls on pete-hegseth-pentagon-department-defense
• Tyler Cowen on the-myth-of-the-140000-poverty-line
• Fred Kaplan on pete-hegseth-trump-war-crimes-boats-venezuela
• the conversable economist on how-much-are-us-firms-using-ai-tools , the-us-financial-services-industry
• Eric Levitz on trump-hegseth-strike-venezuela-drug-boats-war
• Shane Harris et al on hegseth-signalgate-trump-defense-pentagon
• Ruth Marcus on the-dishonorable-strikes-on-venezuelan-boats
• Brad De Long on how-has-us-manufacturing-been-going-over-the-past-generation ,  trump-promised-voters-lower-prices. He-lies-voters-are-angry
• Jeet Heer on donald-trump-war-crimes-hegseth , zohran-mamdani-trump-new-york-pragmatism
• Shirin Ali on comey-news-trump-prosecutor-fail

Europe

• Hillary Kelly on every-man-dies-alone-hans-fallada-novel
• Joshua Yaffa on what-are-putins-ultimate-demands-for-peace-in-ukraine
• Kristina Berdynskykh on ukraines-corruption-democracy-accountability
• Chris Dillow on the-country

Asia

• Jane Hardy on two-koreas-could-north-south-summit-be-works
• Nguyen Linh on vietnam-s-race-between-speed-stamina
• Alexander Arifianto and Virdika Utama on how-china-views-its-economic-relations-indonesia
• Michele Burgis-Kasthala on what-charges-does-benjamin-netanyahu-face-and-whats-at-stake-if-he-is-granted-a-pardon
• Steve Turton on death-and-devastation-why-a-rare-equatorial-cyclone-and-other-storms-have-hit-southern-asia-so-hard
• Dylan Motin on why-xenophobia-won-t-solve-south-korea-s-china-problem
• Ali Mirchi et al on irans-president-calls-for-moving-its-drought-stricken-capital-amid-a-worsening-water-crisis-how-tehran-got-into-water-bankruptcy
• Shanthie D'Sousa on high-stakes-india-s-refusal-send-former-bangladesh-pm-trial
• Dalia Alazza and Shahzad Uddin on gazas-once-growing-economy-is-nearing-total-collapse
• Charles Crabtree on japan-s-analog-bureaucracy-holds-back-digital-economy
• noahpinion on china-has-invented-a-whole-new-way

Wonk

• Jonathan Haidt on the-devils-plan-to-ruin-next-generation Thanks Nick
• John Long on how-societies-evolved-into-fear-dominated-goliaths-then-collapsed
• Tim Harford on our-devices-work-for-big-tech-not-for-us
• Abhindandan Kumar on g20-becoming-what-it-sought-replace
• noahpinion on i-love-ai-why-doesnt-everyone
• Fiona Panther on is-postmodernism-wrecking-science-in-a-provocative-book-scientists-weigh-the-evidence
• Natalia Beghin on markets-have-money-developing-countries-need-projects-what-s-stopping-them
• RN Prasher on has-second-world-war-finally-ended-germany-japan

General

• Doug Muir on occasional-artwork-because-its-the-dream
• Kruggers on state-of-the-stack-one-year-in
• Vaughn Cruikshank on like-night-and-day-why-test-cricket-changes-so-much-under-lights
• Phillip Clark on the-dude-ranch-above-the-sea-steely-dan

Climate

• ocean acidification on dynamics-of-a-coral-reef-system-under-climate-change ,experimental-evidence-of-climate-change-effects-on-plankton-community-respiration-in-european-coastal-waters-current-insights-and-knowledge-gaps-in-tested-disturbances-and-studied-areas
• real climate on who-should-pay
• Krystall Randall on temperatures-in-a-patch-of-antarctic-moss-can-vary-as-much-as-an-entire-mountain-range
• skeptical science on fact-brief-arcticcycle-2 , new_research

Andrew Gelman ( mostly stats)

• whats-it-like-to-be-the-child-of-a-white-collar-criminal
  
• sermet-pekins-open-source-project-that-discovers-blogs-through-recursive-network-exploration
  
• how-much-of-mississippis-education-miracle-is-an-artifact-of-selection-bias
  
• the-big-clock-and-jeffrey-epstein
  
• survey-statistics-probability-samples-vs-epsem-samples-vs-srs-samples
  
• gerd-gigerenzer-on-the-legacy-of-daniel-kahneman
  
• from-bayesian-inference-to-llms-steve-bronders-2025-cppcon-talk
  
• when-the-numbers-dont-look-right-check-them-mississippi-education-update
  
• the-sapolsky-sanction
  
• freakometrics on insurance, real estate and the manufacturing of ignorance , removing traffic lights
• Kaiser Fung on say-jon-without-the-h-in-chinese

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• from-woolly-to-concrete-liberalism
  
• Tyler Cowen on best-movies-of-2025 , fdr-a-new-political-life , liberal-worlds-james-bryce-and-the-democratic-intellect
• New Yorker on best-books-2025
• The Atlantic on best-books-2025-ian-mcewan-han-kang
• Trevan Wax on favorite-reads-2025

Vox Wonk

• compass-monetary-policy-under-model-uncertainty 
  
• real-impact-fintech-evidence-mobile-payment-technology 
  
• reforming-international-taxation-balancing-profit-shifting-and-investment-responses
  
• green-versus-conventional-corporate-debt-financing-choices-and-climate-outcomes
  
• aligning-drug-prices-and-innovation-how-global-spillovers-shape-future-medicines
  
• hidden-exposures-domestic-supply-chains-spread-foreign-trade-risks
  
• why-eu-innovation-policy-fails-promote-disruptive-innovation 
  
• trailing-margin-official-macro-forecasts-eu-fiscal-surveillance 
  
• demographic-change-headwinds-economic-growth
  
• political-economy-climate-policy-evidence-american-clean-energy-and-security-act 
  
• raising-employment-among-women-and-older-workers-policy-lever-ageing-economies 
  
• economics-second-trump-administration
  

GDP was okay

 Before I start here are two comments on the GDP release:

• australia-economic-growth-big-drivers-shape-matters-size
  
• australian-economic-growth-is-solid-but-not-spectacular-rate-cuts-are-off-the-table

Strong investment growth, the forth rise in productivity, strong growth in housing, the private sector taking over the reins of growth all give the right signs. However CBA research says we are fast approaching the speed limit of the economy which is a problem.

This means we need more investment fast.

We shall see how good this government is and whether they understand the problem

Russia/Ukraine 'peace' talks

 I do not have much hope here.

The first 28 point 'peace plan' was clearly drawn up by Russia. this was stopped in its tracks by europe as it should have been.

Putin thinks he is in a strong position. He isn't. Ukraine have shown up dramatic weaknesses in russian defence forces. His tanks he thought were the best in the world have been shown to be anything but. His missile defence systems have also been shown up as well. His economy is in a mess. It is getting worse as ukraine attack oil refineries and thus curtail oil supplies.

However his lies to Witkoff are taken in holus bolus. since he has deliberately taken no state department research or personnel one can understand why he is such a wood duck.

Given all this I would suggest there is only one solution. Give Ukraine enough resources to BEAT Russia.

When that occurs encourage russia to be part of the Western world!

Trump in trouble

 Donald Trump is in trouble. 

Excuse me for not being surprised. I wrote here that on winning the election he would be in trouble because his economic policy was incoherent.

Let us go through this shall we.

Tariffs

Tariffs increase costs and therefore prices. It leads to consumers having to pay higher prices after the tariffs are implemented. It leads to industry becoming more inefficient because of a permanently higher cost structure. The political problem is inflation rises from what is was and no amount of gaslighting will solve this

Deportations

This leads to a lower labour force. it means some industries such as agriculture and building face problems in getting labour. The problem here is hardened criminals who are undocumented  immigrants are few and far between. They are either in gaol or hard to find because they are criminals. It is quite costly to find and get them. Thus this administration gets the low hanging fruit of undocumented immigrants who have committed NO crimes. Lying about how you get these people and being unlawful merely exacerbates this problem. This explains why Trump is under water on immigration!!

The University Sector

They have been hit in three areas. They have been hit with overall funding. They have been hit with specific funding with regard to research particularly health research. finally overseas students have been targeted on their political views. If you have been critical of trump or supported palestinian human rights then you will not be able to study in the USA and if you are there at present you might get arrested 

Billionaires

It aint a great look when you give large tax cuts to billionaires but cut spending to those less well off. It gets worse when you and your family are making bucket loads since gaining office.

Health Care

People are only now getting their health care bills for next year and they have risen a lot. You cannot criticise ACA if you have no alternative.

It Deja Vu all over again

People are only now remembering how chaotic the first Trump administration was. Last time has had some adults in the room. This time around he has none.  Hegeth, Bondi , Patel etc are very good examples of very incompetent people in charge. People also forgot Trump is not very good at politics. He was very unpopular last time and thus far he is even more unpopular.

I was always very confident there would be a substantial vote against Trump in the mid-terms. I remain so. Just remember Trump can never admit he ever gets things wrong.

Around the Traps 28/11/25

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Milad Haghani et al on aircraft-noise-from-new-runways-will-hit-thousands-more-homes-australia-needs-fairer-solutions
• croaking cassandra on treasury-on-tax , trade-nz-vs-australia , scattered-mps-points
• Stephen Bartos and John Hawkins on inflation-jumps-in-october-adding-to-pressure-on-government-to-make-budget-savings
• Greg Jericho on the-latest-inflation-figures-offer-no-joy-except-to-the-gas-producers-whose-windfall-profits-remain-largely-untouched
• Zac Gross on apras-first-order Thanks Stephen Kirchner
• Justine Bell-James on long-sought-environmental-law-reform-is-finally-here-but-will-the-compromise-deal-actually-protect-nature
• Sarah Cameron and Ian McAlister on better-policies-better-leader-new-study-reveals-why-labor-won-the-2025-federal-election

OZ climate

• capacity-investment-scheme-will-be-a-failure-if-projects-arent-built-and-theres-a-problem-with-wind
• australias-most-powerful-battery-still-seeking-answers-for-transformer-failure-to-be-offline-for-maintenance
  
• big-solar-grabs-record-30-6-pct-share-of-australias-main-grid-before-being-shunted-aside-by-rooftop-pv
  
• australia-needs-a-new-wind-farm-every-month-to-meet-2030-target-cefc-boss-says
  
• wind-project-developers-propose-accelerated-payments-to-near-neighbours-but-theres-a-catch
  
• big-batteries-hit-world-leading-40-pct-share-of-evening-demand-in-stunning-new-record-for-south-australia
  
• a-completely-new-world-major-new-big-battery-deal-signals-a-new-energy-market-order
  
• rooftop-pv-is-eating-the-energy-industrys-lunch-now-big-solar-wants-to-hoe-into-coal-generators-dinner
  
• australia-doesnt-have-to-choose-between-energy-affordability-and-emission-reductions
  
• we-need-a-reality-check-on-the-future-of-fossil-gas-with-households-already-racing-for-the-exit
  
• off-grid-gold-miner-achieves-record-renewables-with-101-consecutive-hours-with-engines-off
  
• new-worlds-largest-sand-battery-to-double-the-size-of-current-record-holder
  
• another-wind-project-nears-drought-breaking-financial-close-as-snowy-signs-long-term-contract
  
• Zoe Richards on we-knew-ningaloos-coral-bleaching-was-severe-but-what-we-found-6-months-later-was-still-a-shock

Northern America

• Astead Herndon and Cameron Peters on zohran-mamdani-donald-trump-oval-office-meeting-nyc-queens
• Jill Fillipovic on marjorie-taylor-greene-trump-epstein-maga-women-feminism
• John Quiggin on musks-last-grift
• Kruggers on vibecessions-part-ii , the-trump-trade-is-unraveling , doge-was-a-harbinger-of-trumps-assault-on-decency-and-privacy , warning-the-fed-cant-rescue-ai ,getting-ready-to-party-like-its-2008
• Bruce Wolpe on trumps-attacks-are-worsening-why-is-he-becoming-even-more-vengeful
• the conversable economist on are-the-entry-level-jobs-drying-up-for-young-adults , us-poverty-and-policy , origins-of-thanksgiving
• Cameron Peters on comey-james-cases-lindsey-halligan-us-attorney-kelly-investigation
• Mark Stern on comey-lindsey-halligan-tish-james-fake-prosecutor
• Dahlia Lithwick on doj-epstein-maxwell-interview-emails-fail-todd-blanche
• Daniel Flitton on america-in-the-age-of-envoy
• Joshua Keating on terrorism-maduro-venezuela-antifa
• Fred Kaplan on trump-28-point-plan-ukraine-russia-steve-witkoff-leak
• Missy Ryan et al on mark-kelly-military-justice-trump-hegseth
• Mick Ryan on kabul-kyiv-trump-s-pattern-clear-negotiate-enemies-sideline-allies
• noahpinion on bad-education-is-a-terrible-way-to-fight-inequality
• Russell Berman on indiana-redistricting-republican-trump
• Anette Gordon-Reed on jefferson-divided
• Ariana Aspuru and Noel King on justice-department-donald-trump-pam-bondi-enemies-retribution

Europe

• Georgi Engelbrecht on great-aspirations-examining-russia-s-role-southeast-asia
• Simon Goodman and Rahul Sambaraju on is-racism-becoming-more-acceptable-in-the-uk
• Elona Zhona on eu-processes-move-years-kosovo-also-needs-partners-who-move-months
• Mathew Sussex on how-the-trump-administration-tried-to-sell-ukraine-a-diplomatic-debacle
• Joshua Keating on ukraine-peace-deal-putin-russia
• Anna Hansen on how-russia-tried-manipulate-moldova-s-election-what-it-reveals
• Chris Dillow on the-fiscal-challenge
• Fred Kaplan on trump-ukraine-28-point-peace-plan-russia-rubio
• James Skinner and Jamie Hill on how-englands-premier-league-is-trying-to-stop-footballs-financial-arms-race-without-a-salary-cap
• Simon Shuster on ukraine-zelensky-russia-trump-peace-land-red-line
• Joshua Yaffa on what-are-putins-ultimate-demands-for-peace-in-ukraine

Asia

• Ausma Bernot on wechat-is-now-a-frontline-policing-tool-in-china-heres-what-my-research-found
• Lisa Singh on quiet-strength-regional-friends-pitch-issues-based-coalitions
• Shanthie D'Souza on modi-courts-putin-eye-trump-s-disapproval
• Apoorba Banerjee on southeast-asian-manufacturing-no-longer-immune-geopolitics
• Jane Hardy on what-i-learned-about-north-korea-s-nuclear-paranoia-pyongyang
• Sari Bashi on gaza-the-threat-of-partition

Wonk

• Ashley Crawley on are we not catholics too Thanks Nick
• Mark Dalton on regulations-compliance-cost-barriers-to-entry Thanks Nick
• Ari Adut on democracy-as-theatre Thanks Nick
• institutional economics on tariff-shocks-are-aggregate-demand-shock
• Awni Etaywe on violent-extremists-wield-words-as-weapons-new-study-reveals-6-tactics-they-use
• Tim Harford on taking-a-swipe-at-dating-apps
• RN Prasher on cheap-weapons-reshape-character-war
• Robert Walker and Georgia Hammersly on world-proves-thirstier-ever-energy
• Milad Haghani et al on the-hong-kong-high-rise-fire-shows-how-difficult-it-is-to-evacuate-in-an-emergency
• Katherine Teh on critical-minerals-why-fast-tracking-undermines-democratic-legitimacy
• Jed Rackoff on its-a-racket-cryptocurrency

General

• Jennifer Power on does-masturbating-really-help-menopause-symptoms-new-research-says-yes
• Tyler Cowen on what-is-opera
• Beth Driscoll on should-we-get-over-print-books-in-the-digital-age-or-are-they-more-precious-than-ever
• Luke Johnson on 100-years-on-t-s-eliots-the-hollow-men-is-a-poem-for-our-populist-moment

Climate

• Jacqueline Peel on this-years-climate-talks-saw-real-progress-just-not-on-fossil-fuels
• skeptical science on fact-brief-sun-2 , new_research
• essays concerning on climate-shaming-3-0
• renew ecconomy on brazils-cop-of-truth-fails-on-fossil-fuels-and-science-now-its-bowens-turn-to-take-centre-stage
• David Appell on berkeley-earths-october-and-crimes-against-humanity
• Shanai Sanai and Ambarish Karmalkar on sea-level-doesnt-rise-at-the-same-rate-everywhere-we-mapped-where-antarcticas-ice-melt-would-have-the-biggest-impact

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• who-wants-no-kid-vax-law
  
•  the-limits-of-ethical-ai
• the-signal-to-noise-ratio-in-statistics
  
• who-has-the-lowest-erdos-bacon-epstein-number
  
• some-thoughts-on-empirical-distributions-of-z-scores
  
• problems-with-the-so-called-gender-equality-paradox
  
• survey-statistics-quantity-vs-quality
  
• the-purpose-of-science-vs-the-purpose-of-scientists
  
• kroger-recall-update-full-list-of-product-warnings-across-18-states
  
• effective-sample-size
  
•  larry-summers-ken-starr-jeffrey-epstein-and-everyone-else
• heres-an-idea-for-not-getting-tripped-up-with-default-priors-2
  
• freakometrics on insurers AI and systematic risk
• Kaiser Fung on light-entertainment-pi-orities

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Maya Krisnan on what-we-call-progress Thanks Nick
• Tyler Cowen on best-non-fiction-books-of-2025 , the-age-of-disclosure
• Dennis Muller on airbrushing-and-exhortations-ita-buttrose-reflects-on-her-life-in-media-well-some-of-it
• Menzie Chinn on clifford-winston-market-corrections-not-government-interventions

Vox Wonk

• when-loss-strikes-twice-health-shocks-and-household-financial-distress 
  
• labour-market-institutions-ai-era-need-verified-employment-records
  
• financial-fragmentation-vulnerability-euro-area-bond-markets
  
• then-and-now-look-back-and-ahead-us-federal-budget
  
• unintended-consequences-export-restrictions
  
• how-financial-authorities-best-respond-ai-challenges
  
• granular-origins-inflation
  
• economic-value-nations-create-others-relative-domestic-gains
  

A Bad CPI

The CPI was released yesterday. It is the first fair dinkum monthly CPI.

It was bad. It rose stronger than expected. Thus the RBA will stay put on rates as they should.

HERE is some good commentary

HOWEVER it is a new series. It will take time to be broken in. The RBA has already said it will take more notice of the quarterly CPI.

I have to say both the last quarterly number and this number is at odds with business surveys which say inflation is okay.

This simply means you wait until you are sure where is inflation is and heading.

renewable energy

 Renew energy has some interesting articles.

• big-solar-grabs-record-30-6-pct-share-of-australias-main-grid-before-being-shunted-aside-by-rooftop-pv     Thus rooftop solar is even taking market share from big solar let alone coalstations! On the positive side more batteries get full
  
• australia-needs-a-new-wind-farm-every-month-to-meet-2030-target-cefc-boss-says   We need to get cracking od building new windfarms ( and solar farms.)
  
• australias-most-powerful-battery-still-seeking-answers-for-transformer-failure-to-be-offline-for-maintenance  We still do not know what occurred
  
• four-hour-big-battery-to-be-built-next-to-australias-biggest-wind-farm This makes obvious sense
  
• new-transmission-towers-are-crucial-for-renewables-but-contentious-heres-where-they-should-go wow I didn't know about this
  
• what-will-night-time-electricity-generation-look-like-in-2030  so interesting
  

All in all positive but work needs to be ddone