Around the Traps 4/7/25

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Jennifer Parker on natos-5-of-gdp-defence-target-ramps-up-pressure-on-australia-to-spend-vastly-more
• Saam Bennett on how-to-reform-the-ndis-and-better-support-disabled-people-who-dont-qualify-for-it
• Susannah Patton on does-australia-see-china-threat
• Kanchan Panday on long-distance-nationalism-tests-australia-s-multicultural-harmony
• Michael Haare on australia-s-17-trillion-ai-moment
• AJ Brown on the-national-anti-corruption-commission-turns-2-has-it-restored-integrity-to-federal-government
• Ryan Neelam on australia-united-states-how-disagree-superpower
• Hugh Piper on australia-can-t-prevaricate-tough-economic-security-trade-offs-anymore
• Greg Jericho on capital-gains-for-the-rich-and-persistent-gender-pay-gaps-what-we-can-learn-from-the-atos-annual-tax-statistics
• Daniel Flitton on meeting-xi-trump-why-albanese-s-diplomatic-calendar-matters

OZ Climate

• flashback-to-campbell-newman-era-as-queensland-passes-rules-that-will-stifle-new-wind-and-solar
  
• what-really-matters-energy-costs-electrification-efficiency-or-climate-change
  
• australia-wants-to-build-at-least-23-gw-of-wind-and-solar-in-66-months-but-it-has-a-financing-problem
  
• approvals-limbo-and-workforce-worries-cast-shadow-over-speed-of-green-energy-transition
  
• parkinson-report-australias-decision-makers-are-ignoring-climate-hailing-coal-and-impersonating-elvis
  
• gas-is-flexible-but-it-must-be-affordable-bowen-flags-review-of-gas-market-regulations
  
• australias-steel-future-is-green-but-it-wont-be-delivered-by-hydrogen
  
• key-transmission-link-delayed-by-two-years-in-new-blow-to-wind-and-solar-projects
  
• tasmania-has-a-new-controversial-wind-project-a-3-gw-behemoth-proposed-for-tarkine-wilderness
  
• australias-most-powerful-battery-conducts-its-first-tests-as-a-giant-shock-absorber-for-the-grid
  
• watershed-moment-big-battery-storage-prices-hit-record-low-in-huge-china-auction
  
• gold-plating-is-out-network-resilience-is-in-and-its-urgently-required
  
• pioneering-community-wind-farm-adds-battery-and-home-grown-smarts-to-dodge-negative-prices
  
• too-little-too-late-renewables-lobby-says-grid-plan-aims-too-low-and-creates-uncertainty
  
• Steve Turton on warmer-seas-are-fuelling-the-dangerous-weather-bomb-about-to-hit-nsw
• Tristan Edis on an-impending-gas-shortfall-in-eastern-australia-this-is-just-gas-market-groundhog-day

Northern America

• institutional economics on us-exceptionalism-without-the-exceptionalism
• Brad De long on mamdani-vs-skeffington-maybe-american-poliitics-is-getting-less-anti-rational
• Christian Paz on democratic-tea-party-zohran-mamdani-new-york-primary-incumbent , trump-bill-reconciliation-unpopular-republican-backlash
• Roger Farmer on tariffs-and-the-trade-deficit
• noahopinion on would-you-rather-have-cheap-energy-or-stupid-culture-wars , jewish-americans-are-feeling-unsettled , we-cant-afford-to-keep-cutting-taxes-for-the-rich
• Andrew Warren on trump-doj-suing-marylands-federal-judges
• Kruggers on were-all-rats-now , republicans-beware-medicaid-is-not-a-soft-target , trumps-big-beautiful-debt-bomb
• Eric Levitz on big-beautiful-bill-senate-trump-tax-cut-ai-wind-solar
• Dylan Scott on big-beautiful-bill-lose-medicaid-trump
• David Franklin on supreme-court-alito-uncle-bobby-yoder-fail
• Jonathan Chait on big-beautiful-bill-backlash
• Tom Nicholls on trump-insults-americaagain
• Fintan O'Toole on a-show-of-force
• the conversable economist on us-health-care-expenditures-an-ominous-trend-returns , the-weird-and-lovely-surge-of-us-productivity-growth
• Ryan Beckwith on pew-stanford-study-voter-id-laws-colorado-democrats
• Umair Irfan on trump-big-beautiful-bill-clean-energy-fossil-climate
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on supreme-court-republican-presidents-kavanaugh-rule
• Nitisha Pahwa on paramount-skydance-merger-trump-settlement

Europe

• stumbling and mumbling on not-debating-immigration
• renew economy on denmark-extends-life-of-two-of-its-oldest-offshore-wind-farms-one-by-another-25-years
• Tyler Cowen on the-anti-alcohol-campaign-in-the-ussr
• Henry Throp on putin-s-potato-politics-exposes-new-economics-conflict

Asia

• Simon Theobald on do-all-iranians-hate-the-regime-hate-america-life-inside-the-country-is-more-complex-than-that
• Benjamin Zala on could-we-live-with-a-nuclear-armed-iran-reluctantly-yes
• Shukriya Bradost on iran-emerged-weakened-and-vulnerable-after-war-with-israel-and-that-could-mean-trouble-for-countrys-ethnic-minorities
• Stefan Messingschlager on decoding-xi-s-china-return-pekingology
• Chris Lloyd on some-collected-observations-on-the-middle-east-crisis
• Marika Sosnoswki on trump-demands-an-end-to-the-war-in-gaza-could-a-ceasefire-be-close
• Roland Rajah on vietnam-s-trump-tariff-deal-what-it-means-asian-supply-chains

Wonk

• the intrinsic perspective on more-lore-of-the-world Thanks Nick
• Indy Johar on we are not living in a simulation Thanks Nick
• Maalvika on being-too-ambitious-is-a-clever-form-of-self sabotage Thanks Nick
• anecdotal value of the-scandal-of-outdated-science Thanks Nick
• Samantha Hill on what-does-it-mean-to-love-world-hannah-arendt-and-amor-mundi Thanks Nick
• Menzie Chinn on gold-the-challenger-to-dollar-reserves
• Jake Scott on im-a-physician-who-has-looked-at-hundreds-of-studies-of-vaccine-safety-and-heres-some-of-what-rfk-jr-gets-wrong
• Tim Harford on can-we-nudge-our-way-to-higher-growth
• noahopinion on the-dawn-of-the-posthuman-age
• Liz Anderson on the-protestant-work-ethic-libertarianism-and-the-welfare-state
• Brad De Long on reflexes-desires-actions-emergence-and-the-mirage-of-machine-minds
• Kruggers on inequality-part-v-predatory-financialization
• Dilnoza Ubaydullaeva on trumps-worldview-is-causing-a-global-shift-of-alliances-what-does-this-mean-for-nations-in-the-middle
• sandwichman on the-realm-of-freedom-and-dictatorship-of-the-proletariat
• the conversable economist on a-case-for-reading-dead-economists
• Brad De Long on the-few-who-move-the-many
• Shameek Godara on critical-minerals-critical-moment-testing-quad-s-resolve

General

• Clancy James on a-strange-bright-burst-in-space-baffled-astronomers-for-more-than-a-year-now-theyve-solved-the-mystery
• Andrew Merdith et al on around-250-million-years-ago-earth-was-near-lifeless-and-locked-in-a-hothouse-state-now-scientists-know-why

Climate

• in due course on highbrow-climate-misinformation Thanks Nick
• Stephen Sherwood et al on earth-is-trapping-much-more-heat-than-climate-models-forecast-and-the-rate-has-doubled-in-20-years
• David Appell on where-do-climate-models-go-for-their-apology , europes-heat-wave
• Graham Readfearn on tracking-sea-ice-is-early-warning-system-for-global-heating-but-us-halt-to-data-sharing-will-make-it-harder-scientists-warn
• skeptical science on latest-wmo-15-C , new_research
• open mind on hot-heat-in-the-usa-and-beyond
• Darla McDonald and Elizabeth Leane on more-and-more-tourists-are-flocking-to-antarctica-lets-stop-it-from-being-loved-to-death
• Edward Doddridge on antarctic-summer-sea-ice-is-at-record-lows-heres-how-it-will-harm-the-planet-and-us

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• misapplication-of-benfords-law-published-in-health-economics-journal
  
• advancing-the-scientific-study-of-structural-racism-concepts-measures-and-methods
  
• its-sapolsky-time-about-that-bogus-claim-that-chess-grandmasters-burn-6000-calories-per-day
  
• survey-statistics-sparsified-mrp
  
• bayesian-data-analysis-is-30-years-old
  
• why-does-explainable-ai-miss-the-mark-explanations-are-a-means-to-an-end
  
• ripoff-prison-video-calls
  

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Jane Messer on mommy-dearest-molly-jong-fasts-blistering-memoir-of-her-always-performing-mother-erica-is-hilarious-and-moving
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading
• Brad De Long on reviewing-reviewing-John Cassidys-capitalism-and-its-critics

Vox Wonk

• productivity-export-sector-evidence-dutch-supplier-networks
  
•  rethinking-exchange-rate-flexibility-post-bretton-woods-era-evidence-new-index
• state-globalisation-new-ebook
  
• new-modelling-approach-evaluating-trump-tariffs
  
• cold-case-over-160-years-old-effects-unification-italys-north-south-divide
  
• gender-role-attitudes-and-female-labour-supply
  
• value-added-tax-paradox-resource-dependent-economies
  
• liquidity-crisis-support-made-switzerland-and-too-big-fail-subsidy
  
• regulation-and-growth-lessons-nearly-50-years-product-market-reforms
  
• households-subjective-expectations-disagreement-common-drivers-and-reaction-aggregate
  
• global-action-without-global-governance-four-pillar-strategy-climate-and-nature
  
• how-fund-design-affects-volatility-shaping-both-trading-and-investor-composition
  
• too-much-good-thing-role-global-us-dollar
  
• campaign-promises-political-coupons-future-benefits-sway-dont-retain-voters
  
• us-dollar-stablecoin-mercantilism-opportunity-promote-payment-multilateralism
  
• climate-change-firms-and-aggregate-productivity
  

This is bribery

 Paramount settled a libel suit against them by Donald trump that almost every legaLalmoat every serious legal anlyst said had no legs.

Paramount is not the first media organisation to do this. Why would they do this you ask. They have areas of their policy and strategy that need government approval and by giving this bribe they believe this approval will be granted. 

It is a disgrace all round but once an authoritarian grifter always one

I really should comment on the big horrible bill. I cannot believe republican are supporting a bill that vastly increases the budget deficit and federal debt , cuts benefits to mainly working class people but also some middle class ones as well. It then doles out large tax cuts to billionaires, millionaires and large companies.

It sounds like the recipe for a Democrat landslide in the mid-terms. When you add in the absurdities of the tariffs, the Gestapo tactics of ICE et all it is virtually guaranteed.

Test Cricket

 I love test cricket. It is the ONLY form of cricket as far as I am concerned. We have just had two i nteresting tests and will have another two tonight and tomorrow.

England V India

This is interesting. I have rated Stokes very highly as a captain. As high as Chappelli and Mark Taylor. It is very unusual for an almost allrounder to be a good captain but Stokes is the real deal. Gill has only just become captain of india and it showed. He clearly had no idea at various stages of the 1st test. however this is to be expected. He can only improve.

England have a very solid batting lineup with good reserves. They are also strong on wicketkeepers who can also bat. Their fast bowling looks good but their spinning options are sparse.

India is reasonably strong in batting  but replacements for Sharma and Kohli are yet to materialise. They rely too much on Bumrah. Why Reddy was not selected in the 1st test is strange. He is a very good batsman and his bowling would be suited to english conditions. Pant is excellent as a wicketkeeper and of course batsman. with the retirement of Ashwin they appear not to have any spinner who can take consistent wickets.

If I was England I would pick Overton given Bumrah is not playing and therefore India cannot win. India simply does not have the bowling to take 20 wickets.

Australia V West Indies

The australian batting weakness was shown up by a weak WI bowling lineup. Our bowlers are still very good but are aging. Can they all play 5 tests in an Ashes series? the WI have a weak batting lineup and lost a test they should have. They should have only been chasing 150 at best!

Both India and the WI dropped simple catches. India hit 5 tons and still lost.

Lots to watch over the next few days!!

spending money on defence to get to a certain % of GDP is stupid and wasteful

 If you need to spend money you never have to be told you need to get to a certain proportion to get there. You spend money because you need to.

Albo is correct if we as a nation need some weapons' then we need to spend money to get them. If we do not then we don't spend the money.

NATO counties are now going to get to 5% of GDP ( although only 3.5% is defence spending). In a sense NATO countries could be worried about Russia although its performance in Ukraine is unimpressive and its defence capabilities were found wanting by the Israeli air force.

We are told we should be worried about China however China would lose bigtime in a war given how it is aligned in the international economy although WW1 begs to differ!!

Given all that it is easy to see how it would contribute to waste. If you have to hit a figure then you will spend money until you hit it!

I am sceptical about the need to hit a certain level of defence spending  (although we would be near 4-4.5% on NATO definitions) we need to look at what we actually need. Perhaps nuclear submarines are not top of the list?

US politics

 Not a  lot of time so here are a few points.

ICE

This has been a disgrace. ICE agents are now demanding from people ( latinos) proof they are not illegal immigrants. Imagine that in the USA masked men appch you and demand proof you are a US citizen. First racial profiling is still illegal. The onus is on them to provide proof that the person is an illegal immigrant not the other way round.  The fact this regularly occurs in a democracy is worrying in the extreme.

Related to this is a number of incidents where IXE has lied about what occurred. The father of three marines was not doing what ICE alleged. Another incident had a US citizen being arrested by ICE agents for punching them. The problem was Walmart CCTV showed no punching whatsoever. It is merely another example of ICE attempting top immediate people.  Oh and you cannot sue them for wrongful arrest. Thank you Supreme court

Supreme court

The Us supreme court yet again shows they are partisan hacks. See Barbara McQuade.

Perhaps John Quiggin has a point!

I should add on ICE that whereas most people want criminals shipped off to their countries they do not want people living peaceably in the USa doing their jobs touched. Having masked toughs roughing up peaceable law abiding people is not going over well with the punters.

Around the Traps 27/6/25

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Gareth Evans on aukus-collapse-good-for-australia Thanks Nick
• Isaac Gross on would-a-corporate-tax-cut-boost-productivity-in-australia-so-far-the-evidence-is-unclear
• Donald Rothwell on australia-must-stand-firm-in-its-support-for-a-rules-based-order-and-reject-any-us-requests-for-military-aid ,
• Allan Behm on as-the-us-chooses-destruction-over-diplomacy-in-iran-australia-has-to-decide-between-principle-and-prostration
• Michael Shoebridge on albanese-government-cuts-heart-us-alliance
• Dennis Muller on antoinette-lattoufs-unfair-dismissal-win-shows-abc-must-be-more-courageous-in-defending-its-journalists
• David Vallance on transparency-australia-us-alliance
• Greg Jericho on super-tax-debate-highlights-everything-wrong-with-australias-media-and-economic-system
• Andrew Carr on beyond-white-papers-how-australia-should-rethink-strategic-planning
• Connor O'Brien on australia-should-stop-pretending-be-military-hegemon

OZ Climate

• we-were-told-to-stand-down-why-it-took-nine-days-to-connect-broken-hills-back-up-battery-in-blackout
  
• bribe-or-community-benefit-sweeteners-for-renewables-projects-need-to-be-done-right
  
• aint-seen-nothing-yet-new-ways-to-make-money-from-big-batteries-are-on-the-way
• aemo-wants-six-hour-batteries-and-more-wind-and-solar-as-biggest-isolated-grid-prepares-to-quit-coal
• nsw-doubles-its-spend-on-transmission-to-connect-more-renewables-faster
  
• network-offers-big-near-neighbour-payments-to-soothe-anger-over-renewables-transmission-line
  
• regulator-puts-faith-in-spinning-machines-to-keep-the-lights-on-as-it-says-no-to-inertia-market-for-now
  
• even-big-batteries-are-falling-victim-to-grid-bottlenecks
  
• threat-of-new-global-energy-crisis-makes-it-more-urgent-than-ever-to-electrify-everything
  
• Wei Yang on wetland-restoration-is-seen-as-sunk-cost-but-new-research-shows-why-it-should-be-considered-an-investment
• Trivess Moore and Nicola Willand on yes-victorias-efforts-to-wean-households-off-gas-have-been-dialled-back-but-its-still-real-progress

Northern America

• Brad De Long on who-were-the-we-the-people-back-in-1787
• Lisa Rubin on hegseth-senate-testimony-court-orders-trump
• Ron Capshaw on heterodox-radical-going-around-murray-kempton-review Thanks Nick
• Joshua Keating on iran-attack-trump-war
• Fred Kaplan on trump-bombs-iran-us-war-nuclear-sites , iran-israel-war-trump-ceasefire-latest , trump-iran-hegseth-nuclear-program-uranium-assessment
• noahopinion on the-economic-consequences-of-a-war-with-iran , zohran-mamdanis-policies-will-mostly-not-bring-abundance-to-NYC
• small precautions on how-did-academia-not-see-it-coming Thanks Brad
• Kruggers on maga-will-devastate-rural-america , why-big-tech-turned-against-democrats-and-democracy , mamdani-and-the-moguls-of-madness
• Alex Tabarrok on have-appliances-declined-in-durability
• Umair Irfan on heat-wave-urban-island-rural-health-temperature
• Christian Paz on trump-paradox-poll-iran-economy-approval-number
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-bivens-ice-law-enforcement-donald-trump , supreme-court-medicaid-abortion-medina-planned-parenthood-south-carolina
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on worst-supreme-court-decision-trump-second-term
• the conversable economist on a-feds-eye-view-of-labor-markets , the-us-trade-balance-with-the-eu-the-role-of-us-multinationals
• Max Rivlin-Nadler on the-zohran-mamdani-coalition
• Eric Lach on zohran-mamdanis-new-york-city-miracle
• Ruth Marcus on justice-ketanji-brown-jacksons-declaration-of-independence
• Jeet Heer on trump-iran-no-more-wars , zohran-mamdani-democratic-party-establishment
• Ray Brescia on emile-bove-senate-hearing-trump
• Mark Stern on supreme-court-trump-victory-birthright-citizenship-disaster

Europe

• Yvonne Breitweiser-Faria on a-new-special-tribunal-will-investigate-russias-aggression-against-ukraine-will-it-be-effective
• Pjot Sauer on one-million-and-counting-russian-casualties-hit-milestone-in-ukraine-war
• stumbling and mumbling on what-do-politicians-do
• renew economy on no-time-to-waste-huge-big-battery-plans-unveiled-for-spain-as-accusations-traded-over-blackout

Asia

• Jenna Jordan and Rachel Whitlark on nuclear-scientists-have-long-been-targets-in-covert-ops-israel-has-brought-that-policy-out-of-the-shadows
• Susanna Patton on border-skirmish-leaked-phone-call-sees-thailand-cambodia-dispute-surge-back-life
• noahopinion on chinas-industrial-policy-has-an-unprofitability-problem
• Ian Parmeter on the-us-has-entered-the-israel-iran-war-here-are-3-scenarios-for-what-might-happen-next
• James Dwyer on what-is-a-bunker-buster-an-expert-explains-what-the-us-dropped-on-iran
• Trivan Annakkarrage on kashmir-identity-crisis-heart-three-way-territorial-contest
• Fred Kaplan on iran-war-us-trump-nuclear-program-uranium-israel
• Ali Mamouri on will-the-fragile-ceasefire-between-iran-and-israel-hold-one-factor-could-be-crucial-to-it-sticking
• Anthony Burke on the-war-wont-end-irans-nuclear-program-it-will-drive-it-underground-following-north-koreas-model
• Benjamin Isakhan on hauntingly-familiar-why-comparing-the-us-strikes-on-iran-to-iraq-in-2003-is-off-target
• Mira Hussein on gulf-states-want-no-winner-in-the-conflict-between-israel-and-iran
• Henry Yep on china-s-south-pacific-foothold-how-prevent-it
• renew economy on just-staggering-china-installs-100-solar-panels-a-second-as-total-pv-capacity-tops-1-terawatt
• Amro Hamada on gaza-the-war-on-dialysis
• Craig Mark on japanese-prime-ministers-abrupt-no-show-at-nato-summit-reveals-a-strained-alliance-with-the-us
• Henry Storey on china-sits-out-iran-conflagration

Wonk

• Brad De Long on lash-cash-and-cotton-in the imperial-commercial-and-the-early-steampower-age
• Sohrab Ahmari on the-regime-change-maniacs-are-back-in-charge Thanks Nick
• the garden of forking paths on the-value-of-proportionate-fines Thanks Nick
• Willem Buiter on streamlining-us-financial-regulation Thanks Nick
• Llewelyn Spink and Nicholas Davis on companies-are-betting-on-ai-to-help-lift-productivity-workers-need-to-be-part-of-the-process
• Tim Harford on am-i-boring-you-good
• stumbling and mumbling on politics-vs-econ101
• Kruggers on inequality-part-iv-oligarchs
• sandwichman on fetters-on-development-of-productive-forces , the-realm-of-freedom-and-dictatorship-of-the-proletariat
• Donald Rothwell on why-the-us-strikes-on-iran-are-illegal-and-can-set-a-troubling-precedent
• Chris Armstrong on peaceful-terrorism
• Tyler Cowen on how-do-declining-fertility-and-climate-change-interact
• Menzie Chinn on the-int-monetary-system-the-pboc-and-the-rmb-fragmentation

General

• Davide Foffa et al on how-pterosaurs-learned-to-fly-scientists-have-been-looking-in-the-wrong-place-to-solve-this-mystery

Climate

• skeptical science on is modern warming a rebound , ClimateAdam-silencing-science-trump-war-on-our-climate , new_research
• open mind on another-estimate-of-the-warming-rate
• Milton Speer and Lance Leslie on freak-wind-gusts-made-worse-by-climate-change-threaten-airline-passenger-safety
• David Appell on arctic-sea-ice-currently-at-record-low

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• deciphering-the-neighborhood-atlas-area-deprivation-index-the-consequences-of-not-standardizing
  
• update-on-effects-of-economy-on-political-attitudes-and-behavior
  
• the-2024-baby-name-statistics-are-available-and-laura-wattenberg-and-philip-cohen-have-some-thoughts
  
• reckless-disregard-for-the-truth-coming-from-cops-doctors-and-scientists-a-rant
  
• survey-statistics-poststratification
  
• belief-elicitation-in-theory-versus-practice
  
• bring-on-the-stupid-when-does-it-make-sense-to-judge-a-person-a-group-or-an-organization-by-its-worst
  
• statschat on reeling-them-in , census-roundup , briefly
• freakometrics on collectively rethinking disasters , insuring the uninsurable

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• uncertain-times-lebanon-how-policy-shocks-ripple-through-mena-markets
  
• when-supply-shocks-essential-inputs-spur-innovation-lessons-global-rare-earths 
• how-201819-us-tariffs-against-china-boosted-exports-and-employment-mexico
  
• part-time-work-slows-narrowing-frances-lifetime-gender-earnings-gap
  
• pricing-risks-bull-and-bear-markets
  
• us-wealth-inequality-2022-modest-reversal-top-persistent-challenges-below
  
• downgrading-uncle-sam-not-america
  
• geopolitical-risk-euro-area
  
• borrowing-hand-over-fist-aa
  
• why-us-and-wto-should-part-ways
  
• export-strength-does-not-equal-tech-strength-rethinking-eu-comparative-advantage
  
• lending-uncle-sam-rope
  
• decline-non-tariff-barriers-services-trade-and-euro-area-competitiveness
  

domestic stuff

 CPI

the monthly CPI came out yesterday and it was very good. It does appear that the previous CPI was an aberration as this one shows the disinflation trend which was apparent up to last month. Both the headline and trimmed mean annual figures fell substantially. The CBA now expects rate cuts in both July and then August and I do not disagree. I would move rates down to the neutral rate and then wait.

ABC

The ABC lost a court case yesterday where both the previous Managing director and Charwoman came out looking very badly. Sacking someone simply because the Israel lobby wanted it is very bad for a media organisation ( it would be equally bad if it were the Palestinian lobby). When it is Australia's premier media organisation it is a national disgrace. We can only hope they have learnt their lesson.