Oh dear both Alan Moran and Judith Sloan jump the shark on electricity at Catallaxy.
Although both claim to be experts as every braggart at Catallaxy does they are woefully ignorant of the basics so let us help them out. I should add I am no expert, I simply read a bit more then they do.
As we have see before Alan puts all his eggs in the Mineral councils basket when it comes to the coast of electricity on new coal powered stations. Unfortunately no-one else believes the Minerals council's figures. The market certainly does not as NO investor shown any interest in a new coal powered station. They would be queueing up bigtime if they did as would financiers to finance the project. They are nowhere to be seen either. Whoops
He also conveniently ignores any externalities coal produces such as emissions or pollution. He does this as he would be laughed out of court if he explicitly said this. without a price on carbon then a subsidy makes sense. Whoops
He also implies these subsidies have led to higher electricity prices. Wrong , Wrong, Wrong and Wrong Whoops
He wants a new brown coal station ignoring all the social costs involved. Whoops
He also ignores the many breakdowns on coal powered stations over the summer. Whoops
Judith claims solar and wind powered stations have higher costs than a new coal station. Finkel says not so. Few disagree .Where does she get her figures from? Who knows Whoops
Scott Morrison obviously disagrees with her on information that has come to cabinet.
A couple of other points.
Alinta closed down the coal plant in South Australia. It was uneconomic, units frequently broke down in summer, servicing costs were high and getting higher. They wanted government help and did not get it.
AGL got the Liddell station for essentially nothing. They also got coal at below market prices for the amount of time they own the plant. This changes when the plant closes ( or changes hands).
The servicing costs are quite high and rising, Units break down in summer for reasons shown above.
No bid has been made and I very much doubt a bid will be made, Note this is vastly different to interest in the station. If Alinta do make a bid you can be sure it is with government sweeteners.
AGL have stated they will have electricity Liddlel currently generates covered when it closes.
Remember it takes a lot less time to build renewable station and therefore start generating electricity.
Wednesday, 4 April 2018
Tuesday, 3 April 2018
A Good PM needs quite a bit of luck
Some people look back on John Howard as the last decent PM we had. There is an element of truth to this HOWEVER most people conveniently forget that up to around 2000 Howard was viewed as a complete loser. A man out of his depth. Very easy to pressure.
Depending on your point of view 11/9 or Tampa ( the one I prefer) changed all that. His latent lack of self confidence disappeared overnight He became self assured.
His handling of tamps while morally challenged was politically brilliant. When the 2000 election looked like turning in the last week His 'leak' to the Australian turned the attention back to Tampa and he won with ease.
Why have the four since he was PM failed.
Well for a start they never had the luxury of staying as long as PM as Howard. This is very important.
although in most instances it might not have mattered.
Well let us examine each.
Kevin Rudd came in with the best record as an Opposition Leader anyone had ever see.He had one great weakness which we only found out about once he left. He was very poor with people. ( This leads me to believe his Christianity is a facade). He also never followed up on programs he initiated.
This is strange because why did not Cabinet ask questions?
As a politician he followed Howard the wrong way. His change on climate change was poorly explained and followed an understanding of the electorate by people who clearly did not have a clue.
He never tried to explain away the 'pink batts' program which as we found reduced house fires ten fold.
Julia Gillard clearly never had any self confidence whilst in the job. She reminded a lot of the early John Howard. Like Howard she was good in Parliament whilst not Leader but suddenly lost all her mojo when becoming Leader and became average in Parliament. She clearly could negotiate with the best of them however she had no political smarts nor did anyone she relied on . She clearly could not sell a cold beer in a pub on a hot day.
The only question is if she had the luxury of leading her party as PM as long as Howard would she like Howard improved? We will never know.
Tony Abbott was never liked nor trusted by the electorate. On becoming PM Abbott acted as though there was no such thing as the Charter of Budget Honesty and PEFO never existed. He then went back on his most important promised when the first budget came out. He was road kill from that time forward. He understood this and never learned from his mistakes. He proved as bad as Stanley Bruce in the office.
Malcolm Turnbull became PM because the Liberals could see he was the only was they could win the next election. however Turnbull never had political smarts at any time in his life and certainly not when he became PM. He acceded to the conservatives in the party not understanding the only reason people wanted him to be PM was to rid themselves of Tony Abbott and what he stood for. The electorate never wanted a Abbott lite as PM
This leads us to Bill Shorten who seems to be an enigma. At times he shows great promise by not being a small target and having controversial policies that are beneficial to the economy. At other times he acts like Abbott used to criticising without any suggested ways to improve the situation.
Depending on your point of view 11/9 or Tampa ( the one I prefer) changed all that. His latent lack of self confidence disappeared overnight He became self assured.
His handling of tamps while morally challenged was politically brilliant. When the 2000 election looked like turning in the last week His 'leak' to the Australian turned the attention back to Tampa and he won with ease.
Why have the four since he was PM failed.
Well for a start they never had the luxury of staying as long as PM as Howard. This is very important.
although in most instances it might not have mattered.
Well let us examine each.
Kevin Rudd came in with the best record as an Opposition Leader anyone had ever see.He had one great weakness which we only found out about once he left. He was very poor with people. ( This leads me to believe his Christianity is a facade). He also never followed up on programs he initiated.
This is strange because why did not Cabinet ask questions?
As a politician he followed Howard the wrong way. His change on climate change was poorly explained and followed an understanding of the electorate by people who clearly did not have a clue.
He never tried to explain away the 'pink batts' program which as we found reduced house fires ten fold.
Julia Gillard clearly never had any self confidence whilst in the job. She reminded a lot of the early John Howard. Like Howard she was good in Parliament whilst not Leader but suddenly lost all her mojo when becoming Leader and became average in Parliament. She clearly could negotiate with the best of them however she had no political smarts nor did anyone she relied on . She clearly could not sell a cold beer in a pub on a hot day.
The only question is if she had the luxury of leading her party as PM as long as Howard would she like Howard improved? We will never know.
Tony Abbott was never liked nor trusted by the electorate. On becoming PM Abbott acted as though there was no such thing as the Charter of Budget Honesty and PEFO never existed. He then went back on his most important promised when the first budget came out. He was road kill from that time forward. He understood this and never learned from his mistakes. He proved as bad as Stanley Bruce in the office.
Malcolm Turnbull became PM because the Liberals could see he was the only was they could win the next election. however Turnbull never had political smarts at any time in his life and certainly not when he became PM. He acceded to the conservatives in the party not understanding the only reason people wanted him to be PM was to rid themselves of Tony Abbott and what he stood for. The electorate never wanted a Abbott lite as PM
This leads us to Bill Shorten who seems to be an enigma. At times he shows great promise by not being a small target and having controversial policies that are beneficial to the economy. At other times he acts like Abbott used to criticising without any suggested ways to improve the situation.
Monday, 2 April 2018
Krugman V De Long V Waldmann
There is a really good debate on globalisation.
Three people who would normally agree with each other are having different views on the matter.
Noah Smith gives us delong-vs-krugman-on-globalization.
Robertt Waldmann then weighs in on on-what-w-missed-about-globalization
This is the best of the blogosphere.
Enjoy
Three people who would normally agree with each other are having different views on the matter.
Noah Smith gives us delong-vs-krugman-on-globalization.
Robertt Waldmann then weighs in on on-what-w-missed-about-globalization
This is the best of the blogosphere.
Enjoy
Sunday, 1 April 2018
The Resurrection is central to Christianity
It is the Resurrection that makes Christianity and stand out. It is why it is not actually a religion as people do not have to do anything they merely have to accept it it.
When Jesus rose from the dead on the third day (Sunday) Everyone knew exactly what had occurred. Thomas put is best when he stated My Lord and My God. Only a person without sin could rise from the dead. As EVERY man is sinful then it could only be god as man who rose.
How do we know this occurred. We there were plenty of witness, As Paul put it to people there were over 500 hundred, It would be very easy to seek them out to ensure the veracity of the statement.
The Jewish religious elite would have made hay with such an extravagant 'trumpian' claim if it were untrue but they didn't.
His Apostles who feared for their lives whilst hiding were then emboldened to speak out knowing death was certain and it was for most. Why die for a lie?
The significance of the resurrection is that the Crucifixion then made sense, Only a sinless person could take the punishment for others. Only a sinless man could be the perfect substitute.
This offer of being forgiven if a person repented of their sins was totally alien then and now to most people. It meant a person's action did not determine their entry into Heaven only their acceptance of Jesus as their saviour.
We should also note both Peter and Paul put the blame of Jesus's death fully on the Jews. Modern Day Jews do not deserve any opprobrium over this as it was God ordained. The other reason Modern day Jews are simply not related to the Jews of Biblical times. It is the Christians that are. That is why they follow Jesus.
The term christ killer is simply the statement of a biblically illiterate person
When Jesus rose from the dead on the third day (Sunday) Everyone knew exactly what had occurred. Thomas put is best when he stated My Lord and My God. Only a person without sin could rise from the dead. As EVERY man is sinful then it could only be god as man who rose.
How do we know this occurred. We there were plenty of witness, As Paul put it to people there were over 500 hundred, It would be very easy to seek them out to ensure the veracity of the statement.
The Jewish religious elite would have made hay with such an extravagant 'trumpian' claim if it were untrue but they didn't.
His Apostles who feared for their lives whilst hiding were then emboldened to speak out knowing death was certain and it was for most. Why die for a lie?
The significance of the resurrection is that the Crucifixion then made sense, Only a sinless person could take the punishment for others. Only a sinless man could be the perfect substitute.
This offer of being forgiven if a person repented of their sins was totally alien then and now to most people. It meant a person's action did not determine their entry into Heaven only their acceptance of Jesus as their saviour.
We should also note both Peter and Paul put the blame of Jesus's death fully on the Jews. Modern Day Jews do not deserve any opprobrium over this as it was God ordained. The other reason Modern day Jews are simply not related to the Jews of Biblical times. It is the Christians that are. That is why they follow Jesus.
The term christ killer is simply the statement of a biblically illiterate person
Thursday, 29 March 2018
Around the Traps 30/3/18 Easter Edition
It is time for Around the Traps again
Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
- Peter Terrey on the-day-australian-cricket-lost-its-integrity-and-a-country-reacted-with-shock-and-anger
- Peter Doherty on climate-policy-is-a-fiendish-problem-for-governments-time-for-an-independent-authority-with-real-powers
- David Shearman on why-australians-need-a-national-environment-protection-agency-to-safeguard-their-health
- Rodger Shanahan on cost-australia-s-reputation-cricket-s-scandal
- Croaking Cassandra on proposed-reserve-bank-act-changes-stage-1 , how-key-appointments-are-made, real-interest-gaps-remain-large , the-failed-economic-strategy-goes-on ,work-visa-numbers-soar
- Ross Gittins on we-have-bad-case-of-misdirected-compassion , cheating-cricketers-symptomatic-of-our-declining-standards
- Australian Parliamentary Library on Update_to_casual_employee_estimates-2004_to_2017
- The kouk on here-s-why-the-political-debate-over-tax-is-getting-hot , australia-urgently-needs-an-interest-rate-cut
- Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-number-29
- Keith Parry and Emma Kavanagh on can-the-cricketers-banned-for-ball-tampering-ever-regain-their-hero-status-its-happened-before
- Mark the Ballot on april-2018-poll-update
- Kruggers on tax-cuts-and-wages-redux-slightly-wonkish Thanks Mark
- Macro Mania on inflation-and-unemployment , inflation-and-unemployment-part-2
- Economic Principals on the war within the FBI Thanks Mark
- Anna North on summer-zervos-case-trump-lawsuit-sexual-assault-allegations
- Menzie Chinn on ready-shoot-aim-who-gets-hurt-in-a-sino-us-trade-war
- Macroblog on thoughts-on-a-long-run-monetary-policy-framework-framing-the-question
- Christy Aschwanden on theres-still-no-such-thing-as-sound-science
- Justin Wolfers on how-to-think-about-corporate-tax-cuts Thanks Mark
- Narayana Kocherlakatos on the-new-york-fed-s-next-president-should-be-more-challenging Thanks Mark
- Galen Druke on there-is-more-at-stake-in-the-censuss-citizenship-question-than-response-rates
- stumbling and mumbling on the-country
- Mainly Macro on jeremy-corbyn-cannot-end-brexit Thanks Mark
- Bank Underground on the-uks-productivity-puzzle-is-in-the-top-tail-of-the-distribution Thanks Mark
- Global Inequality on chinese-income-distribution-in-2002-3-and-2013
- Netina Tan and Cassandra Preece on malaysias-dire-democratic-crisis
- Qin Shan Ding on six-signs-china-wants-to-avoid-a-trade-war
- Kate Grealy on indonesia-countering-message-hate
- Tom Fawthrop on mekong-more-dams-more-damage
- Robert E Kelly on hot-take-what-does-kim-jong-un-s-trip-china-mean
- Edmund Bower on egypt-sisi-election-art-censorship
- Wamg Shang-Su on deterrence-under-dragon-s-shadow-vietnam-s-military-modernisation
- Euan Graham on what-key-players-want-trump-kim-talks-and-what-they-ll-get
- Sam Roggeveen on other-north-korea-question-how-important-korean-peninsula-us
- Kruggers on trade-and-the-cities-wonkish , immaculate-inflation-strikes-again-wonkishThanks Mark
- The Everyday Economist on a-theory-of-tariffs-as-a-method-of-promoting-long-run-free-trade Thanks Mark
- Cecchetti and Schoenholtz on size-is-overrated Thanks Mark
- Tim Harford on zombie-companies-walk-among-us
- long and variable on konig-krugman-fiat-fundamentalism-and-bitcoin
- The Conversable economist on equal-pay-for-equal-work-rathbone-and-fawcett-in-1918 , misconceptions-about-trade-deficits
- Andre Abrahamian on art-following-through-deal
- The Grumpy Economist on friedman-1968-at-50
- Roger Farmer on large-scale-econometric-models-do-they-have-a-future
- Everyday Economist on the-phillips-curve-and-identification-problems Thanks Mark
- Bank Underground on how-does-monetary-policy-affect-the-distribution-of-income-and-wealth Thanks Mark
- Macro Musings on assorted-macro-musings
- Mainly Macro on is-trump-about-race-and-brexit-about-culture
- Uneasy Money on the-phillips-curve-and-the-lucas-critique
- Understanding Society on mechanisms-singular-and-general Thanks Mark
- Thomas the Think Engine on how-a-cognitive-bias-is-causing-this-tech-bubble
- Tom Switzer on skripal-west-escalates-where-proof
- Nick Gruen on sam-harris-idolater-of-reason-outs-himself
- Stoat on who-knew-what-when , a-little-bit-more-climate-suing-stuff
- Arctic Sea Ice on bering-goes-extreme
- My View on Climate Change on wait-a-second-youre-telling-me-that-global-warming-may-be-making-our-winters-colder-please-explain
- and Then Theres Physics on extreme-events-and-anthropogenic-emissions
- Skeptical Science on how could global warming accelerate if CO2 is logarithmic?
- economist-wrote-asking-make-sense-fit-bayesian-hierarchical-models-instead-frequentist-random-effects
- problem-infra-marginality-outcome-tests-discrimination
- debate-claims-importance-spending-obamacare-advertising
- problem-studies-claim-large-consistent-effects-small-irrelevant-inputs
- heuristics-biases-laplace-200-years-ago
- combining-bayesian-inferences-many-fitted-models
- yet-another-irb-horror-story
- usually-replication-good-idea-ones-bit-ridiculous
- judgment-uncertainty-heuristics-biases
- xian on a-null-hypothesis-with-a-99-probability-to-be-true
- Kaiser Fung on 7-principles-of-responsible-data-collection
- John Cook on curvature-and-automatic-differentiation
- No Hesitations on classic-jacod-1994-paper
- Truth on the market on do-biased-stats-provide-bogus-economics-a-primer-on-publication-bias-and-power Thanks Jim rose
- euro-vision
- ideal-wet-weather-reading
- Cassandra's Legacy on the-seneca-effect-review
- Tyler Cowen on got-david-reich
- decline-quality-manufacturing-entrepreneurship-us
- fiscal-adjustments-can-also-be-achieved-raising-taxes
- low-risk-predictor-financial-crises
- new-ceiling-international-balance-payments-japan
- stubbornly-high-cost-remittances
- lobbying-and-efficiency-bank-sales
- ladder-internationalisation-modes
- climate-policy-when-starting-most-expensive-option-makes-sense
- effect-deep-provisions-gross-and-value-added-trade
- japan-s-labour-shortage-beginning-erode-quality-services
Wednesday, 28 March 2018
Cricket Australia is a joke
The board of Cricket Australia and the CEO have to go.
They continued to bury their heads in the same when the Australian team played where sledging was taken to a higher level.
It appeared they had never heard of showing respect to your opponent.
Now when this woeful culture problem in the Australian dressing room comes to its natural conclusion they shout in loud voices this is all dreadful.
The most dreadful thing is the rank hypocrisy.
Was James Sutherland thinking of the good of the games when he made his various news conference or was he thing of shrinking future revenue streams?
How did the punishment fit the crime? A year long ban? They did not try and fix a match for petes sake.
One comes to the natural conclusion the punishment came about because of Sponsor problem. It had nothing to do with the crime.
Get rid of all of them please!
I should add one more thing. A punishment way out of proportion to the crime is more likely to lead to psychological problems for those being punished. Has CA done anything to help all three cricketers? I very much doubt it.
They continued to bury their heads in the same when the Australian team played where sledging was taken to a higher level.
It appeared they had never heard of showing respect to your opponent.
Now when this woeful culture problem in the Australian dressing room comes to its natural conclusion they shout in loud voices this is all dreadful.
The most dreadful thing is the rank hypocrisy.
Was James Sutherland thinking of the good of the games when he made his various news conference or was he thing of shrinking future revenue streams?
How did the punishment fit the crime? A year long ban? They did not try and fix a match for petes sake.
One comes to the natural conclusion the punishment came about because of Sponsor problem. It had nothing to do with the crime.
Get rid of all of them please!
I should add one more thing. A punishment way out of proportion to the crime is more likely to lead to psychological problems for those being punished. Has CA done anything to help all three cricketers? I very much doubt it.
Tuesday, 27 March 2018
The 'Cricket reaction' is over the top
Steve Smith is not the first skipper to be found guilty of tampering with the ball. He is the first to admit it though.
I have heard people wanting the three involved being suspended from anything from life to a year.
This is way over the TOP.
The ICC suspended smith for ONE test match.
I said previously I thought the punishment that fitted the crime was missing a whole test series. Nothing more and nothing less. A year ban is nothing short of ridiculous.
Let us get this whole affair in proportion.
What also should occur is the behaviour of both the ACB and the umpires.
How how the ACB allowed the appalling behaviour of the players to continue so long without a mutter.
how have the umpires allowed it?
The spirit of cricket entails RESPECT for the Opposition. The Australian team have rarely shown this.
What a pity we cannot copy out Kiwi cousins who lose and win with dignity!
I have heard people wanting the three involved being suspended from anything from life to a year.
This is way over the TOP.
The ICC suspended smith for ONE test match.
I said previously I thought the punishment that fitted the crime was missing a whole test series. Nothing more and nothing less. A year ban is nothing short of ridiculous.
Let us get this whole affair in proportion.
What also should occur is the behaviour of both the ACB and the umpires.
How how the ACB allowed the appalling behaviour of the players to continue so long without a mutter.
how have the umpires allowed it?
The spirit of cricket entails RESPECT for the Opposition. The Australian team have rarely shown this.
What a pity we cannot copy out Kiwi cousins who lose and win with dignity!
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