Tobaccy again

Sinclair Davidson and Ashton Da Silva wrote a paper in Agenda concerning plain packaging and tobacco consumption.  I can't say I was impressed. Here is Harry Clarke's take on it. I share what some of the commenters say about the paper.

Then we got the national accounts which perplexed Sinclair Davidson.  Notice an idiot in essence says without any evidence the ABS is making it all up.

The Kouk finally finishes it off.

The Government's troubles continued

The Government continues to be in polling trouble.

The national accounts are out today and it is possible they will show the income side to have two successive quarters of negative growth.  ( They do see HERE)This is because the terms of trade are falling and affecting national income.At present Real GDP and Nominal GDP are increasing at the same rate! The Kouk is unimpressed.

MYEFO ( Greg Jericho has a good article on this )is out in a few weeks and will show the deficit blowing out. As I said on Monday this is of no consequence. One does not institute tighter fiscal policy simply because the economy is weaker than expected. ( See Bill Mitchell)To some extent Hockey is being hoisted on his own petard. When this occurred under Wayne Swan he said it was rubbery assumptions ( although no-one in the markets thought that) and excessive spending. He now looks completely stupid when explaining the same situation.

He is going to look really stupid when projections show deficits for a long time. This is why people think they were lied to. If the problem was spending then the answer is pretty simple. If the problem is not spending then there is nothing worse that an electorate that believes they were wood-ducked

I think UNLESS the $A depreciates to a 'normal' level (say 75c) then the present government is toast.
The electorate have already made up their mind they have instituted or want to institute unfair measures.
They will only 'forget' this if the economy  improves and gets back to trend nominal GDP growth levels.

I do not think the government has any idea of this at all. Just like the previous government!

John Quiggin nails it

John Quiggin today nails the 'debate 'about the budget deficit.

I am unsure why so many people wish to impart a contractionary budget on a weak economy.

It doesn't make sense.  The OECD agrees. so does the Kouk

What needs to done is a plan to get back to trend preferably above trend nominal GDP growth.

If this occurs then the budget will be in balance!

It is times like this when it makes you proud you are an Asussie

Yesterday was a very important day in terms of the national psyche.
The nation remembered Phil Hughes a man who died in the prime of his life from a freak accident playing cricket the game l loved.

Phil Hughes was born in Macksville and his father grew bananas. I was born in the adjoining town of Bowraville many years beforehand and my Father was growing bananas then!

I coach a team and we started with silence for 63 seconds. ( Hughes was 63 when he died.) I had a batsman who was 20 not out and in about 20 minutes flashed past 50 with a century in his grasp.
He deliberately retired at 63.
All the players in the team had their bats on the fence with caps on. As it was Channel 9 was at the ground and filmed this.
When I asked my player why he did it he said it was a team thing and anyway 63 was more important score than 100.

Part of it is HERE

I had never felt more proud of my players.

At the match I umpired the Macquarie Uni Captain declared his innings 63 runs ahead. Macquarie won outright with 6.3 overs being bowled in the last innings!

In the A-League in the Melbourne Victory and Adelaide game spontaneous applause erupted in the 63rd minute. Banners were unfurled and it lasted 63 seconds.

In the Sydney derby between Sydney FC and the Western Sydney Wanderers amazing grace was sung by the RBB at the  63rd minute.

There were tears in spectators and players eyes in both games.

It really was an amazing day and it these events made you proud to be an Aussie!

Around the Traps 28/11/14

It is time for Around the Traps.
Visitors on Sunday so I have no idea of when I will update

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• The Kouk on alarming-global-economy-trends , the-house-price-slowdown-is-creeping-up-on-you , australia-s-budget-problems, gerard-henderson-s-innumeracy-shines-through-again
• Mumble on adventures_of_joel_fitzgibbon , does_my_bum_look_big_in_this
• Greg Jericho on slow-wage-rises-show-australias-industrial-relations-system-is-working , why-isnt-the-government-being-held-to-account-on-the-china-free-trade-deal , victorias-poor-economic-results-is-it-too-late-for-denis-napthine , now-is-not-a-good-time-for-the-housing-construction-boom-to-end
• Kevin Bonham on comments-on-lambiepup-split
• Don Arthur on bankers-reject-forrests-cashless-welfare-proposal 
• Ken Parish on cut-the-waste-stop-the-boondoggles
• Andrew Elder on leadership-as-distraction , no , media-and-politics-today
• Steve from Brisbane on lenore-on-deeper-abbott-government
• The conversation on nbn-benefits-regional-centres-but-rural-australia-is-still-left-wanting , older-people-may-be-better-learners-than-we-think
• Anthony Forsyth on the-enduring-myth-of-the-industrial-relations-club
• Jim Rose on some-economics-of-zero-hours-contracts-part-two-the-fixed-costs-of-employment-and-minimum-hours-constraints
• Ben Eltham on abbott-must-clear-more-barnacles-stop-coalition-ship-sinking

Northern America

• Mark Jamison on why-congress-should-not-get-out-of-the-way-of-the-postal-service
• Calculated Risk on house-prices-real-prices-and-price-to-rent-ratio-September , comments-on-october-new-home-sales
• Robert Waldeman on a-caution-concerning-the-kooky-conservative-conjecture
• Menzie Chinn on if-output-is-near-potential-why-is-inflation-so-low
• Gary Burtless on stimulus-program-success
• Holbo on ferguson

Europe

• Simon Wren-Lewis on understanding-george-osborne
• Chris Dillow on osbornes-idiotic-idea , economists-vs-politicians
• Kruggers on euro-bond-yields , the-european-outlier
• Menzie Chinn on avoiding-lost-decades-european-edition
• Robert Waldeman on uk-macroeconomic-policy-mistakes-of-the-past

Asia

• Edward Lambert on abenomics-higher-wages
• Lord Keynes on robert-murphy-on-japan
• Kruggers on diminishing-returns-arent-waste-wonkish

Wonk

• Progrowth liberal on delong-on-hobsons-choice-v-cochranes-Bernie-Madoff-economics
• Brad Delong on a-question-i-want-to-ask-richard-koo
• Francess Woolley on is-economics-really-a-dismal-science-for-women
• Chris Dillow on wanted-class-consciousness
• Edward Lambert on top-down-approach-is-not-working-go-bottom-up
• Nick Bunker on appreciation-robert-solow  Thanks Mark
• Antonio Fatas on is-0-growth-for-90-successful-economic-model  Thanks Mark
• Kruggers on keynes-is-slowly-winning , in-front-of-your-macroeconomic-nose
• Liam Delaney on mental-health-and-unemployment
• Simon Wren-Lewis on understanding-anti-keynesians , do-we-get-leaders-our-media-deserves
• Brad De Long on wth-a-question-for-simon-wren-lewis-how-can-you-not-think-that-it-is-all-ideology-on-the-other-side
• Nick Rowe on short-run-vs-long-run-order-of-moves-between-monetary-and-fiscal-authorities
• Jim Rose on are-we-reliving-the-1930s
• Tony Yates on inflation-truthing-asset-prices-discount-rates-qe  Thanks Mark
• David Glasner on what-is-free-banking-all-about

General

• Noah Smith on fake-asperger-guys , black-swans-frankenfoods-and-disaster-fairy-tales
• Frances Woolley on economists-arent-in-the-prediction-business-and-thats-a-good-thing
• Carola Binder on regime-change-from-roosevelt-to-rousseff  Thanks Mark 
• Chris Dillow on advice-for-youth , immigration-spontaneous-order
• Lorenzo on origins-of-the-state
• Paul Fritjers on where-are-we-with-geo-engineering-in-2014 
• James Hamilton on a-glut-of-oil

Climate

• Valentina Bosetti and Jeffrey Frankel on fair-shares-pledged-carbon-cuts
• John Quiggin on coal-and-china
• Bart Verhaggen on uncertainty-doesnt-imply-nothing-is-known-or-nothing-should-be-done
• hotwhoppers on an-unsustainable-planet-and-yellow-submarines
• Rabette run on pro-se-cei-nr-michael-mann , now-where-has-eli-heard-this-before
• William Connelly on what-it-would-really-take-to-reverse-climate-change

Andrew Gelman ( Mainly Stats)

• princeton-abandons-grade-deflation-plan
• rick-santorum-andrew-cuomo-common
• oh-go
• almost-inadvertently-followed-dan-kahans-principles-class-today
• leif-uri-need-hang-better-class-statisticians
• quantitative-literacy-tough-idea-1958-96-americans-disapproved-interracial-marriage
• arizona-plagiarism-update
• question-varying-intercept-varying-slope-multilevel-models-cross-national-analysis
• Arthus Charpenter on Confidence Vs Credibility intervals Thanks Mark
• Kaiser Fung on gelman-explains-why-massive-sample-sizes-to-chase-after-tiny-effects-is-silly

Genial Dave Giles( Econometrics)

• thanks-for-downloading
• Frances Diebold on more-on-big-data Thanks Mark
• Larry Wasserman on Causal analysis in practice
• 
  

Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)

• post-festival-reading , truth-emergencies , the-coaseian-milkman , if-you-only-read-two-economics-books , what-to-read-next-3
• Doverbeach on Books in review 4 

Vox Wonk

• fair-shares-pledged-carbon-cuts
• when-economic-models-are-unable-fit-data
• productivity-pricing-power-and-exports
• labour-shares-inequality-and-relative-price-capital
• world-shocks-and-uk-economy
• role-bank-guarantees-international-trade
• causes-g7-fixed-investment-doldrums
• disemployment-and-fdi-evidence-japan
• liquidity-and-foreign-asset-management-challenges-latin-american-countries
• development-and-foreign-aid-historical-perspective
• good-rich-bad-poor

The Industrial Relations Club

Poor old Gerry Henderson has recently going around saying essentially the industrial relations club is back in town.

This was always absurd. About the only evidence attempts to show how this is so is that minimum wages has been rapidly increased.
We have looked at this before and found this wanting. Gerry really needs to look at the Wage Price Index. He often talks about his experience in small business. Apparently employing your wife makes you an expert on small business!

Now we have Anthony Forsyth who has excoriated Gerry's thesis. not hard when there was little meat anyway.

Technology affecting us?

I used to read a newspaper whilst listening to my ipod on the train but now I usually just listen to my ipod.
Whenever I look up I find that everybody else is looking at their phone presumably looking at e-mails or using social media.

I am old fashioned. I look at work e-mails at work and every so often look at my own there as well. I differentiate between work e-mails and my own. I do not let it get mixed up. Given jobs are so fluid having one e-email address just makes sense to me.

I have mentioned previously that technology is meaning more people are doing work at home instead of work i.e they are working longer hours. This means parents no longer turn up at their boys or even girls cricket matches in the mornings.

It also means shows like Insiders are now redundant. They possess  no inside knowledge. Indeed some viewers or even ex-viewers posses more knowledge on certain topics that the said insiders.

The one real positive of technology is amount of research you can do at your desk or chair at home.
I can remember sitting in University libraries reading a lot of papers, books, articles etc and then speaking to lecturers etc,

Technology means sports have a lot less paperwork to do with regard to results, who is playing etc. It makes competition draws much easier.

I guess in the end there are pluses and minuses.