Coldplay

My oldest son and myself can agree on enjoying Coldplay.

He has this on his phone and I love it.

Army of One.

I'm told this was written for Downton's Abbey's last episode.  Ironic. My family liked the series but I didn't and I;m the one that loves the history of the period!

Around the Traps 9/9/16

It is time for Around the Traps again.

I am quite ill so I will update when I get out of bed!
I have arisen from my death bed!

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• John Lee on Australia-cannot-afford-to-spurn-its-Chinese-disapora
• Ross Gittins on morrisons-unplanned-plan-to-fix-the-budget , lets-not-blow-our-big-chance-for-progress-on-climate-change
• Greg Jericho on the-economy-may-be-growing-but-it-sure-doesnt-feel-that-way-to-most-of-us , 48bn-found-down-the-back-of-the-couch-doesnt-leave-much-confidence-in-gdp-figures
• John Blaxland on australia-must-heed-the-lessons-of-hybrid-warfare-to-avoid-falling-behind-on-the-battlefield
• John Daley et al on new-grattan-research-shows-what-is-at-stake-in-the-superannuation-debate
• Croaking Cassandra on lvr-controls-regulatory-philosophy-and-the-oia
• The Kouk on  400-on-the-road-to-federal-budget-repair , whats-the-point-of-budget-repair-if-so-many-australians-are-unemployed-and-underemployed
• Rick Snell on brandis-diaries-case-shows-how-freedom-of-information-has-been-deliberately-neglected
• Damien Spry on what-is-soft-power-hint-its-not-footing-sam-dastyaris-bills
• John Rolfe on company-results-wrap-is-the-resources-downturn-structural-or-cyclical
• Roger Shanahan on Australia-stars-in-first-edition-of-new-ISIS-magazine
• Nick Gruen on ian-marsh-australias-gridlocked-parliament 
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-scrape-below-the-surface-and-the-economy-doesnt-look-so-good
• Ben Rich on could-islamic-states-new-threats-against-australia-show-its-bark-is-now-worse-than-its-bite
• Mamiza Haq and Necmi Avkiran on company-results-wrap-weighing-up-the-risks-behind-the-profits-of-australias-big-four-banks

Northern America

• Roger Farmer on message-to-the-fed-were-not-in-kansas-anymore
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-rate-hike-hopes-fading-fast , fed-watch-is-pushing-unemployment-lower-a-risky-strategy
• Larry Summers on the-feds-complacency-about-its-current-toolbox-is-unwarranted Thanks Mark
• Timothy Taylor on some-economics-for-labor-day , foreign-direct-investment-in-united-states
• Edward Lambert on labour-supply-limit-holding
• Pat Higgins on introducing-the-atlanta-feds-taylor-rule-utility

Europe

• Simon Wren-Lewis on competence-and-strategic-vision , why-does-anyone-listen-to-nigel-lawson , the-uk-goes-back-to-1950s
• Lynne Michelle Swarts on racist-kitsch-begs-a-deeper-question-can-jews-really-be-part-of-poland 
• Chris Dillow on neither-smith-nor-corbyn   and then Simon on labour-elections-response-to-chris-dillow 
• Stephen Kinsella on how-much-of-irelands-fiscal-space-will-climate-inaction-consume
• Eric Lonergan on brexit-everyone-got-it-wrong

Asia

• Anthony Bubalo on What-Saudi-Arabia-is-thinking-about-China-and-the-South-China-Sea
• Simone van Nieuwenhusen on Curing-Mao-fever
• Esward Cavanough on Uzbekistan-Fragile-and-uncertain-as-the-curtain-falls-on-Karimov-era
• Kerry Brown on Xi-drives-a-grand-bargain-in-Chinas-summit-season
• Malcolm Cook on Rodrigo-Dutertes-mayoral-mentality
• Meriden Varrall on Hong-Kong-election-results-A-challenge-to-Chinas-immutability
• Timothy Taylor on chinas-insufficient-investment-in-education
• Brad Setser on the-most-interesting-fx-story-in-asia-is-now-korea-not-china Thanks Mark

Wonk

• Claudia Sahm on telling macro srories with micro  Thanks Mark
• twenty cent paradigm on evisiting-lehman Thanks Mark 
• Daniel Little on capitalism-as-heterogeneous-set-of-practices Thanks Mark 
• Croaking Cassandra on raising-the-inflation-target-in-2002
• Francis Woolley on the-green-door-choice-problem-with-lessons-for-undergraduate-education
• Sandwichman on the-outlaws-of-political-economy
• Simon Wren-Lewis on more-on-stock-flow-consistent-models , fiscal-rules-and-mmt, connecting-dots , voters-making-big-mistakes
• Coppolla comment  on austerity-and-rise-of-populism
• Timothy Taylor on union-density-and-collective-bargaining-coverage 
• Justin Fox on globalization-hits-a-wall Thanks Mark
• Mark Bellamare on restaurant tries third degree price diswcrimination Thanks Mark
• Murice Obfeldt on tariffs-do-more-harm-than-good-at-home
• Perry Mehrling on monetary-policy-in-a-post-crisis-world-beyond-the-taylor-rule Thanks Mark 
• Kruggers on tobin-was-right-implicitly-wonkish

General

• Rosemary Stanton on both-statins-and-a-mediterranean-style-diet-can-help-ward-off-heart-disease-and-stroke
• Doverbeach on angela-knobel-on-human-rights , hugh-mccann-on-the-question-does-gods-knowledge-eliminate-free-will
• Mathew Shepherd on to-a-modern-audience-othello-is-simply-another-story-of-domestic-abuse
• Idiot Tracker on trigger-warnings
• Tim Harford on can-trivia-help-us-to-be-less-ignorant-of-our-own-ignorance 
• various on why-the-miracle-on-the-hudson-in-the-new-movie-sully-was-no-crash-landing
• Mike Kimel on spotting-bs-as-a-mechanism-for-reaching-a-wide-range-of-conclusions-a-case-study
• Chris Dillow on when-newer-isnt-better
• Mark Elgar on what-are-the-attributes-needed-to-be-a-successful-sporting-leader
• Scapticlawyer on are-we-heading-towards-peak-globalisation-the-ages-of-trade-globalisation-and-it

Climate

• Arctic sea ice blog on piomas-september-2016
• moyhu on ncepncar-global-up-slightly , more-on-climate-feedback , big-rise-021c-in-surface-temperature-in-august
• real climate on an-update-on-mid-latitude-cyclones-and-climate-change
• Climate code red on unravelling-myth-of-carbon-budget-for-1.5C

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• in bayesian regressions it is easy to account for measurement error
• Garrison Keillor would be spinning
• brief decontextualised instances of colaughter
• the-new-quantitative-journalism
• research-lies-allegations-windpipe-update
• analysis-of-data-from-internet-polls
• its-not-about-normality-its-all-about-reality
• q-is-a-50-state-poll-as-good-as-50-state-polls-a-use-mister-p
• there-is-no-research-vacuum
• my-talk-at-warwick-england-230pm-thurs-15-sept
• Kaiser Fung on know-your-data-20-trust-and-distrust-in-our-surveillance-society

Genial Gave Giles (econometrics)

• spreadsheet-errors
• No Hesitations on inane-journal-impact-factors 

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• trains-and-apple-pie , google-and-growth
• Terry Slevin on one-in-five-tattoo-inks-in-australia-contain-carcinogenic-chemicals

Vox wonk

• consumer-heterogeneity-and-gains-trade
• structural-reforms-in-difficult-times
• early-globalisation-and-law-one-price
• true-costs-helicopter-money
• premarital-sex-ratios-and-household-saving-rates
• happiness-inequality-and-importance-trust
• europes-incompatible-political-trinities
• drivers-inequality-trade-versus-tax-rates
• retirement-age-reform-and-jobs-europes-lost-generation
• drivers-inequality-trade-versus-tax-rates
• public-investment-stimulus-spillovers-eurozone
• eu-regional-funding-when-party-over
• languages-and-gender-norms-behaviour
• measuring-institutional-investor-performance
• eu-regional-funding-when-party-over

25 years of growth

Yesterday was the 25th year of not having a recession. This is a remarkable achievement. It would not be happening if not for the highly successful stimulus the ALP Government had to counter the GFC.

We will probably best the Netherland's record next year.

We now have a substantial part of the population who have never experienced a recession.

In one of lifes great ironies it was only because of the public sector that GDP rose. State governments are spending on infrastructure quite a bit. We need it.

Wycliffe, the Night Manager

I was to to a friend who is way older than I and still working . We discovered we loved British police dramas.
He lent me his Wycliffe DVD set .
What a great series. the first episode was bad but after that I simply wanted to watch the whole set until it was finished. I think Jimmy Yuill steals the show as DI Kersey.
A couple of minor criticisms. Kersey is not in the last few episodes and that is a shame. Wycliffe's superior are always political operators.

Ronnie Barkers son was one of the detectives until he became a criminal!!

This series is highly recommended.


My oldest son got me to watch the Night Manager. He wanted to watch it because of Tom Hiddleston who is good but Hugh Laurie absolutely steals the show. He is the 'baddie' and Tom the 'goodie'

A word of warning however. this show is slow. very slow. It took me a long time to view it all because of this. I rarely was in the mood to watch it.
you nwil know reasnably soon whether you can go through all the episodes.

Chinese Investment, donations and Sam

There is a lot of confusion with regard to investment in Australia.
The government have made a number of decisions denying Chinese companies owing assets in Australia. they cited national interest but never told us why it was against the national interest.
They didn't tell us why it took therm so long to do this. Why such a decision when it is five minutes to midnight.

I suggest Australia compile a ;list like the USA and Europe of industries that foreign companies cannot invest in.

With regard to foreign donations I find it highly ironic that all the people railing against the money given to Sam Dastyeri voted against John Faulkner's reforms which would have made such payments illegal.
I am also wondering why it is okay for Julie bishop to get a truckful of money yet poor old Sam got just over $1600.

Lastly the calls for the resignation is predictable yet this donation was declared and not illegal.
I think Sam should resign but for being greedy and very very stupid.It is yet further evidence the NSW right has little idea of political strategy as we saw when they overthrew Kevin Rudd.

Off to bed now as I am feeling poorly.

update:

I should have added it gets very dangerous for senior government ministers making claims about alleged subterfuge between Chines entities and Sam.The only country who would lose if the Chines gets stroppy is Australia. Another example of a very poor political class

further update:

I saw Sam's press conference and it was a train wreck. Leigh Sales was absolutely merciless.Funny enough and i could be wrong but i think most of the air for this topic has gone but Sam has lost all credibility. That is no bad thing!

Around the Traps 2/9/16

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• John Quiggin on an-offer-he-cant-accept , adani-should-bow-out-gracefully-from-its-carmichael-coal-mine
• Rolf Gerritsen on disunity-is-death-the-demise-of-the-clp-government-in-the-northern-territory
• Morgan Saletta on the-plug-and-play-city-how-shipping-containers-are-changing-infrastructure
• Croaking Casandra on the badly dysfunctional NZ housing supply crisis , chile-undermining-the-nbr-editors-own-argument
• Greg Jericho on scott-morrisons-car-crash-logic-and-the-real-story-behind-the-taxed-nots , working-at-home-its-because-youve-got-too-much-to-do , blaming-labor-is-not-an-economic-plan-scott-morrison
• Greg Austin on the-australian-government-needs-to-be-more-open-about-the-cyber-threat-from-china
• various on section-18c-is-too-broad-and-too-vague-and-should-be-repealed
• Luke McNamara on explainer-what-is-section-18c-and-why-do-some-politicians-want-it-changed
• Ross Gittins on there-are-few-taxed-nots-apart-from-the-elderly . combatting-climate-change-lets-try-plan
• The Political sword on bring-out-your-debt
• John Fishetti on focusing-on-tests-and-invalid-assessments-is-the-wrong-way-to-measure-teacher-quality
• Sharon Friel on social-determinants-how-class-and-wealth-affect-our-health
• Peter Martin on how-government-rounded-on-newstart , capex-investment-outlook-worst-since-2010/11 . /tax-cuts-next-month-commissioner-buckles
• Barry McGaw on to-raise-status-of-teaching-australia-needs-to-lift-pay-and-cut-teacher-numbers
• Tamara Tulich on interactive-what-powers-does-asio-have-to-question-and-detain-terror-suspects
• Steve Wortnington on australian-small-businesses-could-be-stretched-by-changes-to-commercial-credit-cards
• Khalid Koser on Australian-leadership-needed-to-scale-the-refugee-summit

Northern America

• Carola Binder on the-fed-on-facebook
• Roger Farmer on why-the-fed-should-raise-interest-rates-at-its-next-meeting
• Timothy Taylor on snapshots-of-us-family-wealth , adam-smith-on-teaching-and-incentives
• Robert Waldmann on will-the-fed-be-able-to-respond-to-the-next-recession , premature-anti-republicanism
• Mike Kimel on top-marginal-tax-rates-and-real-economic-growth-part-2.
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-home-sales-in-july , real-prices-and-price-to-rent-ratio-in-June , public-and-private-sector-payroll-jobs-under-various-presidents
• Larry Summers on disappointed-by-what-came-out-of-jackson-hole Thanks Brad
• Narayana Kocherlakota on what-the-fed-chief-s-next-message-should-be , four-ways-to-reform-the-fed Thanks Brad
• Zack Beauchamp on trump-conservative-media-racism-business-insider
• Beverly Mann on washington-post-columnist-richard-cohen-gets-it-right-about-the-clinton-foundation-in-my-opinion
• Noah Smith on expand-the-best-program-to-fight-poverty , don-t-be-scared-of-a-health-insurance-public-option
• Lord Keynes on liberal-lies-about-americas-historical-immigration-policy
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-thoughts-ahead-of-the-employment-report
• Drew Altman on the-aca-marketplace-problems-in-context-and-why-they-dont-mean-obamacare-is-failing Thanks Mark
• Ben Bernanke on should-the-fed-keep-its-balance-sheet-large Thanks Mark
• Jeffrey Frankel on column-by-trump-adviser-is-not-economically-literate  Thanks Mark

Europe

• Kevin O'Rourke on if-you-think-this-anti-globalization-backlash-is-new-you-havent-been-paying-attention
• Simon Wren-Lewis on project-fear-we-have-had-it-with-experts , theresa-mays-brexit-choice
• Aidan Regan on the-european-commission-have-sparked-a-revolution-against-corporate-tax-avoidance

Asia

• Morris Jones on Chinas-quantum-satellite-Nothing-is-totally-secure
• Tim Johnston on Philippines-peace-proces-Duterte-playing-for-high-stakes
• Ian Parmenter on Where-the-Russian-intervention-in-Syria-is-headed
• Edward Cavaough on Instability-just-a-stroke-away-in-Central-Asia
• Brad Setser on the-2016-yuan-depreciation Thanks Mark
• Noah Smith on books-to-help-you-understand-japan
• Huang Le Thu on Vietnam-and-Singapore-Working-together-to-keep-ASEAN-relevant
• Peter Cai on Why-India-distrusts-Chinas-One-Belt-One-Road-initiative

Wonk

• Paul Romer on md-to-lead-worldbank Thanks Mark 
• Wallis et al on Puncturing the Mathus delusion Thanks Brad
• Stephen Grenville on Jackson-Hole-truth-telling-Monetary-policy-cant-save-the-day-alone
• Chris Dillow on truthful-lies , on-incompetence
• Marc Bellamare on Development concepts
• Simon Wren-Lewis on heterodox-economics-mainstream-macro-and-the-financial-crisis , fiscal-rules-should-target-deficit-not-spending
• Roger Farmer on two-reason-why-death-matters
• Brad Setser on is-the-dirty-little-secret-of-fx-intervention-that-it-works , what-to-do-when-countries-with-fiscal-space-wont-use-it Thanks Mark
• Progrowth liberal on the-apple-structure-to-parking-profits-in-Bermuda
• Kruggers on chris-and-the-ricardianoids-wonkish
• Brad De Long on unpleasant-fiscal-dominance, has-macro-policy-been-different-since-2008 , must-read-john-quiggin-_after-neoliberalism-a-snippet_-the-failure-of-neoliberalism-the-greatest-challenge
• Croaking Cassandra on ethical-investment
• Nick Rowe on raising-the-inflation-target-vs-depreciating-paper-money-against-silicon-money , intertemporal-choice-for-universities
• Tim Harford on are-universities-worth-it
• Thomas Belsham on when-asset-managers-go-mad Thanks Mark
• A fine theorem on reinhard-selten-and-the-making-of-modern-game-theory Thanks Jim Rose
• Narayana Kocherlakota on want-a-free-market-abolish-cash Thanks Mark
• Carola Binder and Alex Rodrigues on full-employment/monetary-rules-and-targets-finding-the-best-path-to-full-employment Thanks Mark
• Hal Varian on intelligent technology Thanks Mark

General

• Doverbeach on dominic-legge-on-justice-and-human-law
• Hannah Wurf on World-Bank-IMF-and-ADB-leadership-The-long-wait-for-change
• Morris Jones on Did-ET-really-call-Probably-not 
• various on still-standing-how-an-ancient-clock-tower-survived-italys-deadly-earthquake
• David Wells on al-Adnanis-death-A-significant-but-not-crippling-loss-for-IS

Climate

• Alendra Jahn on guest-post-predictable-first-ice-free-arctic-summer Thanks Brad
• Greg Laden on who-is-responsible-for-most-climate-change
• David Appell on is-proxima-b-our-climate-refuge
• and Then Theres Physics on consensus-enforcers
• Tamino on trend-and-fluctuation-one-more-time
• Arctic sea ice blog on 2016-mega-dipole
• moyhu on climate-feedbacks-and-circuits
• variable variability on blair-trewin-journey-112-australian-weather-stations
• Franz Jotzo on the-climate-change-authoritys-gamble-on-political-pragmatism
• various on direct-action-not-as-motivating-as-carbon-tax-say-some-of-australias-biggest-emitters

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• oooh-it-burns-me-up
• birthdays and heat waves
• evaluating election forecasts
• publication-bias-occurs-within-as-well-as-between-projects
• graph-too-clever-by-half
• why 2016 is not like 1964 or 1972
• take that Bruno Frey
• a-discussion-of-weighting-and-regression-for-causal-inference
• two-weird-tricks-for-fast-conditional-autoregressive-models-in-stan
• Kaiser Fung on thank-you-buzzfeed-for-noticing-us-humans

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• september-reading , dummies-with-standardized-data
• No Hesitations on on-credible-cointegration-analyses

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• commoditised-services , being-enlightened , relax-be-happy , national-wellbeing
• Tim Harford on some-good-books
• Gregory Moore on you-say-tomato-why-some-fruits-are-forever-doomed-to-be-called-veggies
• Doverbeach on weekend-reading-23

Vox wonk

• economic-growth-stagnating-median-incomes-new-analysis
• article/oil-booms-leave-poor-dark
• spain-wake-crisis-reforms-versus-adjustment
• taxation-corruption-and-growth
• inequality-made-great-recession-worse-especially-poor
• investment-and-protectionism-pre-g20-summit-briefing
• limits-whatever-it-takes-lessons-gold-standard
• investment-and-protectionism-pre-g20-summit-briefing
• mortgage-delinquency-and-foreclosure-uk
• europe-needs-its-own-alexander-hamilton
• measuring-global-hunger-importance-variances
• /brexit-economic-prosperity-and-voting-behaviour
• selected-takeaways-ecb-s-sintra-forum
• reinventing-lm-explain-secular-stagnation
• what-else-can-central-banks-do
• lessons-18th-century-unconventional-monetary-policy
• breaking-oil-spell-path-diversification

Why we should get rid of negative gearing in Australia.

I am a convert to not allowing negative gearing in Australia.

Firstly and most importantly if a person has a property for example and the interest bill on their loan is greater than the rent they are getting then ip so facto they are NOT investors but SPECULATORS. They are only interested in future direction of their capital price ( which they think can only go up).They are NOT interested on the return on their investment

It follows that such people are never worried about the quality of the property they own since the return they are getting on their money is not the reason they bought the property.

It also means Central Bankers  sweat on property prices not falling because if they do these 'investors' will sell their properties post hast which would exacerbate any business cycle. As we saw in the USA if the housing industry is the culprit for a slowdown even a recession then the recovery will be muted!! ( Lower interest rates cannot stimulate the housing industry is such circumstances.)

Negative gearing is  favoured  by people of high net worth to both reduce their tax bills and increase their property portfolios. Peter Martin has shown that millionaires pay no tax because of this. They are the tax nots???

If negative gearing is such a great policy then why don't companies do it? Well because they invest they do not speculate.

However we should also be aware that negative gearing only become a 'problem from when Howard halved the capital gains tax.

Given all this I would be in favour of abolishing negative gearing. Allowing interest as a tax deduction on positive gearing would still be okay . In this way we can encourage investment and discourage speculation.