It is hard to see the price of oil falling much. There are four reasons for this.
- The strait of hormuz
- the red sea
- the fall in russian prodution
- inventories
As you can see 1 & 2 are related to the Illegal war the USA is conducting on Iran. They are chokepoints for middle east oil to get to the rest of the world. Trump is a moron ( this is a highly technical term) and has gotten himself into a war where there is no end unless he gives Iran too much inn an agreement. Iran has no reason to sue for peace and would like it to continue until after the mid-terms. The youthis are joining Iran in their quest. Just remember even if hostilities stop ships need insurance to sail and that would take time in both areas.
People have seemingly ignored the Russian/Ukraine war. Ukraine drones are making a mess of russian oil production and terminals. It is hard to see Ukraine reducing this successful campaign.
Inventories were rundown a lot when the War started and no oil was able to get out of the strait of hormuz. Any further hostilities could see oil prices rise bigtime.
Let me finish on a very bearish note. If trump does put boots on the ground in Iran then watch out!
No comments:
Post a Comment