Can one show conspiracy theories are crap?

 Okay I am mainly talking about the USA.

Let us take the 2020 election. Trump knew he would lose bigtime to biden sso made up there was fraudulent voting.

Why so you ask. Well it is very easy to prove fraudulent voting. Dead people cannot vote. If 40,000 did as alleged by Giuliani in one state it is very easy to prove. 

People cannot vote twice. This again is very easy to prove.

The Trump team lost 62-0 and some judges said they can only act on EVIDENCE. Trump's team at no time provided evidence.

Let us now go to Hunter Biden. He was OFFERED a seat on the board of a large Ukrainian company. what skills di he bring. Good point but before you do that look up the companies Andrew Peacock or Brendan Nelson have sat on since Parliament. you can be offered a seat on a board and accept without any significant skills in view but that does not mean corruption. Itf it did then the whole board is involved.

Board members are rarely involved in corruption.Management are. They can pad out invoices. they can recommend contracts where they get a piece of the action etc. In management jargon board members have NO line control

If people are alleging Biden is involved in corruption then as I said before the rest of the board are and the corruption is very expensive. The other thing here is the sacking of a very corrupt prosecutor. If Biden was corrupt why would the US government along with most other Western nations giving aid to Ukraine be demanding the man's sacking? 

Conspiracy theories are held by stupid people who are NEVER convinced by the facts.

Pot Pouri

 Turkey

Erdogan wins despite an inept economy and terrible governance. This is bad for democracy and Turkey.

WA

McGowan resigns. A pandemic takes a toll of most leaders and it has with him. You make a mistake and a lot of people die. He didn't and WA did not really have a lockdown and thus the economy thrived

USA 

Republicans who never complain about deficits and debt when their President is in the white house suddenly discover fiscal conservatism when a democrat is in the White house. Why does the USA have a debt ceiling ?

Steely Dan

Just read it!!

Chips and the new economy

John Edwards has a great article on this.

Power Prices

We might have hit the peak. I had to laugh when Peta Credlin blamed renewables for the current price rises. Is she that lazy or a born liar!

Trump

Gosh If Turley thinks you are in trouble then you are in trouble!

PWC

I still cannot get over how seemingly very smart men got so damned stupid. Even the most base person understands you cannot use confidential information to make money for your company and therefore yourself as well. NO moral compass at all.

Samuelson demolished

 Paul Samuelson is one of the more esteemed academic economists of our time. I have to say I thought him overrated after reading Joan Robinson demolishing him in the cambridge capital controversies. ( Incidentally Joan Robinson who was no beauty was possibly the best writer of economics I have read!)  The cambridge controversy was a mere interesting but esoteric titbit in economics.

Andrew Gelman completely takes apart Samuelson in a short but  highly interesting article.

Okay he now thinks he was wrong on some things!

Tina Turner

 I have to admit I did not like Tina Turner. She shrieked when attempting to sing and her wigs made her look stupid BUT She had great legs and could dance in her heels even at 70!

We in Australia had the nutbush dance to nutbush citylimits as anyone who has been to a wedding would know!

okay you do not know the nutbush dance?

Say no more.

Around the Traps 26/5/23

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Ausssie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Charles Livingstone on sport-is-being-used-to-normalise-gambling-we-should-treat-the-problem-just-like-smoking
• Andrew Podger on consultants-like-pwc-are-loyal-to-profit-not-the-public-governments-should-cut-back-on-using-them
• renew ecconomy on big-batteries-cannibalising-gas-plants-says-agl-as-torrens-bess-charges-up, after-coal-keeper-and-solar-stopper-energy-minister-disband-energy-security-board, australias-renewable-superpower-ambitions-could-be-saved-by-biden-compact, new-study-unlocks-secrets-of-solid-state-batteries-heading-to-households-and-evs, australias-green-hydrogen-export-dream-could-require-812gw-of-wind-and-solar, electrify-or-electrolyse-we-can-and-should-do-both, first-big-battery-in-worlds-biggest-isolated-grid-charges-up-for-first-time, australia-needs-20gw-renewables-in-four-years-to-meet-2030-target, nsw-renewable-zones-face-delays-and-cost-blowouts-as-questions-hang-over-eraring, grid-has-untapped-capacity-that-could-be-used-by-renewables-but-networks-cant-see-it, regulator-confirms-another-coal-and-gas-fuelled-power-price-hike-but-why, roadmap-released-to-smooth-connections-for-wind-and-solar-and-to-add-batteries
• Ross Gittins on our-big-risk-fix-inflation-but-kiss-goodbye-to-full-employment , reach-into-your-pocket-rise-of-care.-economy-will-come-at-a-cost
• Anabelle Workman and Kathryn Bowen on study-finds-2-billion-people-will-struggle-to-survive-in-a-warming-world-and-these-parts-of-australia-are-most-vulnerable
• Christine Morley on we-can-no-longer-justify-unpaid-labour-why-uni-students-need-to-be-paid-for-work-placements
• Dennis Muller on stan-grants-treatment-is-a-failure-of-abcs-leadership-mass-media-and-debate-in-this-country
• Peter Martin on will-jim-chalmers-budget-drive-up-inflation-not-likely-and-heres-why
• Isaac Gross on victoria-bites-a-117-billion-bullet-and-begins-the-long-march-of-land-tax-reform
• Isabella Currie and Mathew Sussex on it-s-time-australia-branded-russia-s-wagner-group-terrorist-organisation
• Greg Jericho on australia-might-not-be-in-a-recession-but-households-are-about-to-feel-as-if-they-are
• Sarah Moulds on laws-targeting-protesters-are-being-rushed-through-state-parliaments-but-they-are-often-poorly-designed-and-sometimes-unconstitutional
• Brendan Coates on victoria-shows-australia-how-to-finally-abolish-stamp-duty-once-and-for-all
• Connor O'Brien on where-has-australia-s-foreign-policy-ambition-gone
• Kellie Toole on lehrmann-inquiry-whats-a-director-of-public-prosecutions-or-dpp-a-legal-expert-explains

Northern America

• Ellen Ioannes on republican-states-eroding-local-democracy
• noahopinion on nonprofits-are-sapping-the-progressive-project, degrowth-we-cant-let-it-happen-here
• slow boring on is-talking-about-democracy-a-good Thanks Brad
• Peter Grant on the-return-to-the-office-has-stalled Thanks Brad
• Very Serious on this-week-in-the-mayonnaise-clinic thanks Brad
• Eric Kramer on why-are-so-many-long-shot-republicans-running-against-trump
• Calculated Risk on what-happened-to-paying-off-national
• Joel Eissenberg on the-budget-ceiling-and-the-gephardt-rule
• Robert Katzberg on donald-trump-lawyers-resign-parlatore-corcoran
• Peter Kafta on cnn-the-messenger-unbiased-cable-news
• Graeme Wood on harlan-crow-clarence-thomas-relationship
• Molly Worthern on tim-keller-s-critique-of-liberal-secularism
• John Cassidy on what-is-bidens-endgame-in-the-debt-ceiling-standoff
• Jeet Heer on dianne-feinstein-democratic-party-quagmire, russiagate-durham-report
• Emily Stewart on debt-ceiling-economy-default-treasury-janet-yellen-stock-market
• David Blight on the-two-constitutions-abraham-lincoln-james-oakes
• the coop scoop on four-ugly-takeaways-from-the -CNN-lovefest thanks Brad
• lawyers guns money on ive-been-falling-so-long-its-like-gravitys-gone-and-im-just-floating Thanks Brad
• Ben Bernanke and Olivier Blanchard on what caused the post pandemic inflation Thanks Brad
• Kruggers on the good news on unemployment Thanks Brad
• Ian Milhiser on supreme-court-clean-water-act-epa-pollution-wetlands-sackett-alito
• Jonathan Guyer on internal-jewish-debate-definition-antisemitism-ihra-israel-zionism
• Nicole Narea on ken-paxton-texas-impeachment-republican-phelan
• Mark Stern on samuel-alito-wetlands-opinion-lost-brett-kavanaugh

Europe

• Ellen Ioannes on ukraine-brazil-india-saudi-arabia
• Peter Sinclair on ukraines-secret-weapon-against-russia-solar
• Daren Acemoglu on explaining-turkish-president-erdogan-election-success Thanks Tyler
• Cihan Turgal on turkey-at-the-crossroads Thanks Tyler
• Jen Kirby on bakhmut-ukraine-war-russia-wagner-zelenskyy-counteroffensive
• renew economy on wind-beats-out-gas-generation-in-uk-in-first-quarter-for-first-time, spanish-renewable-production-exceeds-100-pct-of-demand-for-9-hours, bullet-proof-vests-and-bomb-shelters-wind-farm-switches-on-in-ukraine-conflict-zone
• Mainly Macro on new-fiscal-rules-in-eurozone
• stumbling and mumbling on no-magic-money-trees
• Gavin Hall on ukraine-war-what-we-know-so-far-about-reports-of-battles-being-fought-across-the-border-in-russia
• Mark Edele on is-nato-to-blame-for-the-russo-ukrainian-war-its-complicated-explains-historian-serhii-plokhy
• Elliot Cohen on ukraine-victory-russia-defeat
• Caroline Smith on paolo-pellegrin-photographer-russia-ukraine-war
• Luke Mogelson on two-weeks-at-the-front-in-ukraine
• Adrian Wooldridge on sunak-must-regain-control-over-the-conservative-party-clown-show Thanks Brad
• Brad De Long on open-letter-to-jeffrey-sachs-on-the-russian/ukraine-war

Asia

• Kate Layton and Eleanor Hughes on building-quad-lasts-next-generation
• Johannes Nugroho on danger-anti-chinese-sentiment-indonesia-s-election-campaign
• noahopinion on decoupling-is-just-going-to-happen, where-china-is-beating-the-world
• Parama Palit on g20-presidency-build-brand-india-champion-global-south
• Khang Vu on north-koreasouth-korea-who-s-threatening-who
• Xiaoli Guo on explaining-china-s-central-asia-pivot

Wonk

• Tim Harford on the-never-ending-brilliance-of-board-games
• John Quiggin on utilitarianism-comes-to-benefit-cost-analysis
• Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz on does-my-treatment-work-how-major-medical-reviews-can-be-gold-standard-evidence-yet-flawed
• Ian Hill on russia-s-invasion-ukraine-spurring-transition-global-order
• Khalid Koser on default-not-design-end-asylum-consensus
• Christina Arellano et al on deadly-debt-crises-covid-19-in-emerging-markets Thanks Tyler
• B Schneider on technological unemployment in the British industrial revolution Thanks Brad
• Erin Magiaque on unwanted-thoughts-index-of-prohibited-books-vose
• Gauti Eggersston and Daniel Cohn on the inflation surge of the 2020s Thanks Brad

General

• Kaya Klop-Toker and Karthikeyan Vasudevan on the-worlds-worst-animal-disease-is-killing-frogs-worldwide-a-testing-breakthrough-could-help-save-them
• Ray Tobler et al on ancient-humans-may-have-paused-in-arabia-for-30-000-years-on-their-way-out-of-africa

Climate

• David Appell on the-coming-el-nino
• ocean acidification on high-and-diurnally-fluctuating-carbon-dioxide-exposure-produces-lower-mercury-toxicity-in-a-marine-copepod
• and Then Theres Physics on rcp8-5-and-net-zero
• Real Climate on cmip6-not-so-sudden-stratospheric-cooling
• skeptical science on at-a-glance-cooling. Is global warming still happening
• ocean acidification on effects-of-ocean-acidification-and-ocean-warming-on-the-behavior-and-physiology-of-a-subarctic-intertidal-grazer
• Kathy Gunn et al on antarctic-alarm-bells-observations-reveal-deep-ocean-currents-are-slowing-earlier-than-predicted

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• if-you-do-not-know-what-you-would-have-done-under-all-possible-scenarios-then-you-cannot-know-the-type-i-error-rate-for-your-analysis
  
• is-omicron-natural-or-not-a-probabilistic-theory
  
• what-exactly-is-a-representative-sample
  
• bob-carpenter-says-llms-are-intelligent
  
• effect-size-expectations-and-common-method-bias
  
• new-open-access-journal-on-visualization-and-interaction
  
• Oscar Jorda on estimation and inference responses by local responses Thanks Brad

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• coffee-and-communism
  
• boys-brilliance-and-science
  
• principal-stratification-for-vaccine-efficacy-causal-inference
  
• Institutional Economics on book-club-scott-sumners-alternative--monetary-policy
• Tyler Cowen on the-fall-of-the-turkish-model

Vox Wonk

• effectiveness-green-collateral-policy-instrument-climate-policy
  
• measuring-independent-contractor-workforce
  
• far-side-eus-expenditure-benchmark
  
• winter-resilience-lifts-outlook-eu-growth-amid-persistent-challenges
  
• open-bankings-far-fetched-promise-financial-revolution
  
• eus-strategic-dependencies-unveiled
  
• subjective-well-being-during-spains-decline-evidence-crusade-bulls
  
• economists-growing-old
  
• accounting-imported-and-domestically-generated-inflation-supply-chains-monetary
  
• deposit-glut-lessons-failure-silicon-valley-bank
  
• socioeconomic-diversity-workplace-and-education-smart-underprivileged-and-overlooked
  
• lessons-missing-signals-failing-banks
  

We should be very wary of getting too close to Mohdi

 The Indian PM is not a nice man. Years ago he was complicit in the murders of minorities in his home state. When the BBC had the effrontery to report on this he unleashed the tax department on them.

Whether it be muslims, sikhs or even christians, they are all facing a maelstrom from hindu nationalists with his blessing.

He never does news conferences and thus never answers any journalists questions. He ensures only a positive press by 'clamping 'down on any criticism.

He went one better recently by having the Opposition leader arrested and most certainly put in prison. ( his name is Ghandi what else!)

This is not a person one should get very close to.

The Russo-Ukraine war

 A really interesting article which is essentially a book review which is a great overview of the war.

It does show the theory that NATO provoked the war is complete shite. 

NATO is a DEFENSIVE treaty. Member counties cannot call on any other member counties if they invade another country as Russia has done. How ironic!

Energy again

 For ten years the coalition simply hoped global warming would go away. It didn't. As time moved on the abolition of the price on carbon looked more and more stupid. A  price on carbon is necessary because of the negative externalities. Without that the  price is lower than it should be. It makes for a more fairer market.

When we had a price on carbon we saw a reduction in carbon emissions and a switch towards renewables. It is a reasonable assumption to make that combined to where renewables costs are now and still going most of our energy needs would be met by renewables. Thus the new government has a job on its hand to boost renewable generation to get to its target.

What about coal fired power? Well they take about 8 years to build, would be well over twice the coat of renewables and their units would still break  regularly down because the climate is getting hotter. It is not  dispatchable either  as they take about 30 minutes to either start or close down.

Gas too is too expensive to be competitive  but they are almost dispatchable so it can be used to assist the grid.

Nuclear is simply stuffed as John Quiggin points out.

Australia has a bright future if it embraces the challenge of climate change. We can only hope the government succeeds.

Two things I should have added. some time ago the CSIRO looked at the history of energy and found that given that there would be a lot fewer days when renewables were curtailed in production. Bear in mind the past does not guarantee what occurs in the future.

The other was a very long time ago when I was in my third year of university I wrote an essay on electricity pricing in NSW for a subject called industry economics. The common theme of articles I read was no-one understood why NSW had so many coal fired  power stations. As john quiggin pointed out much later it led to incredibly cheap off peak pricing because of the excess supply.

The reason for so many power stations was that their units broke down a lot and the Premier at the time ( nifty Nev) said no blackouts. Thus we had far too many power stations and for  most of the time a hhuge oversupply of electricity!

The Republicans are a joke

 Last week was not a good one for Republicans.

The durham report was a big fat nothing burger. As Walter Mondale said to Gary Hart in the 1984 primaries where is the beef? 

Jim Jordan tried to say he had FBI whistleblowers. That blew up in his face as he did not even know the sub-committee rules as newbie Daniel Goldman embarrassingly pointed out. Only Republican members could get access to the information!

Another Chairman could not even find out where his key witness was!

We should not forget that house Republicans do not care when the deficit balloons under Republican Presidents but only Democratic Presidents when the deficits are usually slowing. In this instance they di not say boo when Trump irresponsibly exploded his deficit particularly when the tax cuts which di not work were legislated. 

Republican do not even like democracy. People who are confident about what the people want do not restrict voting rights.

Republican are on the wrong end of the abortion debate which has spurned large numbers of young female voters. Their legislation has been written by fanatics. In Texas two women are suing because one almost dies when doctors did not know whether they could abort a foetus essentially attacking the mother. another woman could not abort one of her twins to save the other twin! In yet another state they wanted a 10 year old to have a child after she was raped.

It certainly appears that Republicans like russian generals never learn from their mistakes and keep on losing!

It is not good when the only option one has is to only vote for one party. This is what Trump has done to a once great party. This is a tragedy.

Christine Anu

 This song has to be the BEST song about Australia ever written and Anu does it superbly.

Around the Traps 17/5/23

 It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Geoff Warren on are-bigger-super-funds-better-actually-no-despite-what-the-industry-is-doing
• Kevin Bonham on new-south-wales-2023-final-results-poll
• renew economy on the-net-zero-fallacy-how-australias-renewables-projections-got-so-absurd, australia-needs-a-lot-more-four-hour-batteries-but-first-we-need-the-right-policies, our-energy-highways-are-at-gridlock-aemo-in-new-push-for-unglamorous-transmission, broken-regulations-not-community-opposition-are-delaying-transmission, wind-solar-and-storage-developers-pray-for-breakthrough-in-connection-delays, coalition-clown-show-on-nuclear-on-full-display-in-senate-inquiry, snowy-2-0-usage-set-to-plummet-by-2050-and-vni-west-wont-save-it, getting-renewables-connected-is-the-first-step-to-a-zero-carbon-grid
• Libby Calloway and Natasha Layton on government-plans-to-use-ndis-bulk-buying-power-to-help-save-billions-but-they-shouldnt-put-products-before-people
• John Quiggin on yes-environment-minister-tanya-plibersek-approved-a-coal-mine-but-save-the-angst-for-decisions-that-matter-more, why-nuclear-power-wont-work-in-australia-yet-another-explainer
• Grace Stanhope on life-australia-s-aid-program-not-we-know-it
• Ross Gittins on debt-and-deficit-fixed-in-just-labors-first-budget really, avoiding-tax-cut-backlash-will-be-harder-thanalbo-realises
• Bjorn Sturmberg et al on community-batteries-are-popular-but-we-have-to-make-sure-they-actually-help-share-power
• Peter Martin on 4-ways-to-bring-down-rent-and-build-homes-faster-than-labors-10billion-housing-fund
• croaking cassandra on new-lsap-data, two-sets-of-fiscal-deficits
• Greg Jericho on wages-are-growing-good-news-but-theyre-still-playing-catch-up-with-inflation
• Greg Barton on why-government-action-to-thwart-neo-nazi-groups-is-far-more-difficult-than-it-appears
• Carl Rhodes on pwc-scandal-shows-consultants-like-church-officials-are-best-kept-out-of-state-affairs
• Ausma Bernot and Patrick Walsh on is-china-out-to-spy-on-us-through-drones-and-other-tech-perhaps-thats-not-the-question-we-should-be-asking
• Ross Gittins on climate-change-will-hurt-but-we-can-sill-be-the-lucky-country

Northern America

• Zack Beauchamp on trump-second-term-cnn-town-hall
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-gerrymandering-voting-rights-south-carolina-naacp-alexander, supreme-court-assault-rifles-weapons-shadow-docket-national-association-gun-rights-naperville
• renew economy on california-duck-curve-now-a-canyon-as-grid-load-vanishes-in-the-midday-sun
• Monica Potts on republican-states-expanding-gun-rights-mass-shootings
• Tyler Cowen on the-dual-u-s-labor-market-uncovered
• Matt Ford on pork-industry-interstate-commerce-gorsuch Thanks Brad
• Jeet Heer on cnn-licht-promote-profit-trump, russiagate-durham-report
• Liz Zhou on donna-deegan-jacksonville-mayor-election-florida
• Dennis Aftergut and Laurence Tribe on trump-mar-a-lago-classified-admission-cnn
• Alana Semeuls on china-has-stopped-accepting-our-trash
• Andrew Prokop on durham-report-clinton-plan-trump-russia
• Geoffrey Skulley and Mary Radcliffe on desantis-florida-conservatism-2024

Europe

• Jen Kirby on turkey-elections-erdogan-kilicdaroglu-opposition
• Tim Harford on cautionary-tales-the-man-who-bet-his-house-on-a-song
• Alex Tabarrok on substitutes-are-everywhere-the-great-german-gas-debate-in-retrospect
• John Springford on are-costs-brexit-big-or-small Thanks Brad
• Mehmet Ozalp on after-a-brutal-presidential-election-campaign-turkey-is-headed-to-a-run-off-contest-heres-why
• Mainly Macro on why-is-there-asymmetry-in-how-insurgents-are treated
• Mathew Sussex on putin-under-pressure-the-military-melodrama-between-the-wagner-group-and-russias-armed-forces
• noahopinion on turkey-you-were-doing-so-well-repost
• Joshua Yaffa on the-vanishing-acts-of-vladimir-putin

Asia

• Khang Vu on my-decade-watching-korean-peninsula-delicacy-peace
• Henry Storey on china-rescue-peace-plans-saudi-iran-russia-ukraine-afghanistan-point
• Ellen Ioannes on pakistans-political-turmoil-imran-khan-arrest-explained
• China talk on chinas-data-crackdown-chatgpt-crime Thanks Brad
• Greg Raymond on thailand-is-on-the-verge-of-a-new-democratic-spring-but-significant-obstacles-could-stand-in-the-way
• Ved Shinde on foreign-policy-china-style-beyond-protocol-alcohol
• Tessa Morris-Suzuki on joe-biden-has-said-the-us-wasnt-trying-to-contain-china-but-the-evidence-suggests-otherwise
• Susannah Patton on thailand-s-election-will-country-move-forward
• noahopinion on interview-dan-wang-china-specialist

Wonk

• Stephen Grenville on taming-international-capital-flows
• Tim Harford on why-is-the-field-of-economics-still-so-elitist
• noahopinion on all-the-arguments-against-evs-are-wrong, how-technology-has-changed-the-world
• the conversable economist on measuring-how-a-higher-minimum-wage-affects-employment
• Tyler Cowen on immigration-falling-fertility-rates, attack-monopoly-power-with-deregulation, population-and-welfare-the-greatest-good-for-the-greatest-number
• Chris Best et al on towards a better media system Thanks Brad
• Matt Levine on companies-are-allowed-to-do-bad-mergers Thanks Brad
• Dan Davies on songs-my-portfolio-manager-taught-me Thanks Brad
• Nitish Pahwa on elon-musk-turkey-twitter-erdogan-india-modi-free-speech
• Eric Schliesser on huntington-the-woke-and-radicalization
• stumbling and mumbling on what-the-people-want
• slow boring on im-skeptical-that-powerful-ai-will-solve-major-human-problems Thanks Brad
• Rafael Gaviria on horsemen of the apocalypse Thanks Brad
• Joel Keep on why-who-needs-taiwan
• Anton Hengel on ai-vs-democracy-battle-already-here

General

• Anusuya Chinsamy-Turan on these-giant-drop-bears-with-opposable-thumbs-once-scaled-trees-in-australia-but-how-did-they-grow-so-huge
• Michael Braby on how-butterflies-conquered-the-world-a-new-family-tree-traces-their-100-million-year-journey-across-the-globe
• Stuart Ryder and Erik Kool on for-the-first-time-astronomers-have-detected-a-radio-signal-from-the-massive-explosion-of-a-dying-white-dwarf

Climate

• climate citizen on guest-post-despairing-about-climate-change
• Moyhu on giss-april-global-temperature-down-from-march
• Sophia Kalantzakos and Kunda Dixit on himalayan-mountains-climate-crisis-melting-glaciers-consequences Thanks Brad
• Laura Millan on spain-s-drought-shows-climate-change-is-here Thanks Brad
• skeptical science on 10-year-anniversary-of-97-percent-consensus-study
• Andrew King on global-warming-to-bring-record-hot-year-by-2028-probably-our-first-above-1-5-c-limit

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• does-having-kids-really-protect-you-from-serious-covid%e2%80%9119-symptoms-2
  
• some-cool-interactive-covid-infographics-from-the-british-medical-journal
  
• weighting
• decades-of-polling-have-drained-the-aquifer-of-survey-participation
  
• colonoscopy-corner-misleading-reporting-of-intent-to-treat-analysis
  
• the-problems-with-p-values-are-not-just-with-p-values
  
• bayesian-believers-in-a-house-of-pain
  
• what-happened-in-2022-elections
  

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• false-lessons-from-history
  
• Tyler Cowen on two-movies-i-forgot-to-tell-you-about

vox wonk

• de-dollarisation-happening
  
• rebuilding-education-smarter-and-stronger-ukraine
  
• advertiser-block-lists-threat-media-integrity
  
• giant-missing-piece-eus-capital-market-puzzle
  
• extraordinary-generosity-central-banks-towards-banks-some-reflexions-its-origin
  
• test-optional-admissions-diversity-and-social-pressure
  
• missing-girls-liberal-italy-1861-1921
  
• reducing-policy-uncertainty-attracts-foreign-direct-investment-services-role-regional-trade-agreements
  
• how-us-film-industry-mitigates-financial-risk
  
• when-will-they-ever-learn-us-banking-crisis-2023
  
• real-value-added-national-accounts-and-theory-disconnect
  
• british-voting-intentions-and-far-reach-911-terror-new-york
  

Where I Imitate Marginal Revolution

 I confess to being lazy and I do not want to write anything so here a some interesting articles

• It is going to get hot soon
• Thwarting neo-nazies is harder than you think
• We have evidence of a white dwarf dying
• Wages are growing Please  RBA you only worry about wage breakouts if labour is organised
• Pep provides a masterclass. will city do the treble? Quite possibly
• Democrats win Jacksonville. Are republican like russian generals  and incapable of learning from mistakes?
• Trump is a terrible witness
• Coalition clown show in nuclear power
• Johnny Quiggin showing both good and bad judgement  How is inflation targeting bad? Does he want the structural deficit to widen? You apparently cannot define a woman either. You can approve mines if people want to risk their money in the medium to long term. Stranded assets anyone. He is right however on the stadium. 

what the government could do if their housing fund is voted down

 My old mate ( literally and metaphorically) PETER MARTIN has a nice short article on how to deal with the current housing crisis for those in crisis. social housing in other words.

Thinking out loud would not rentrol price controls work in building under negative gearing. Negative gearing afterall is when interest payments are greater then the rent you get. In other words the people doing it are speculators not investors. since they are only interested in capital appreciation not return on investment then they should not be bothered all that much by controls on the price of rent.

Two elections

 There were elections in Turkey and Thailand on the weekend.

Turkey

Given inflation is over 40%, the economy is a mess and the earthquake last year was mishandled badly one can only speculate how Erdogan got only slightly more votes than any other candidate. It reminds me of Zimbabwe somewhat. has he made islam the equivalent of tribal loyalties? We await the run-off and see if there is to be a change of leadership. Perhaps Musk stop his censorship which Erdogan wanted !

Thailand

Yet again the military have been shown up as having little popular support. Never mind Thailand will have a government  for a period until the military has another coup! The only surprise was the party that got the most votes and they want people to be able to criticise the monarchy!

Is the $US losing it as the reserve currency?

 Barry Eichengreen examines this topis and finds the demise of the $US greatly exaggerated.

A short paper but quite interesting to read.

Around the Traps 12/5/23

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ranjeev Varshney on our-tropical-fruits-are-vulnerable-to-climate-change-can-we-make-them-resilient-in-time
• Samantha Hepburn on what-australias-new-gas-tax-will-mean-for-new-projects-the-economy-and-the-climate
• Dorina Pojani on australias-housing-crisis-is-deepening-here-are-10-policies-to-get-us-out-of-it
• croaking cassandra on reviewing-and-reforming-the-rba
• Ross Gittins on how-budget-spin-doctors-manipulate-our-first-impression
• renew economy on big-batteries-as-virtual-power-lines-could-be-quick-solution-to-unleash-wind-and-solar, labors-timid-fossil-rent-tax-should-be-revamped-into-a-norway-like-wealth-fund, installation-begins-on-largest-electricity-transformers-to-support-renewable-highway, green-hydrogen-versus-direct-renewables-best-and-worst-ways-to-use-wind-and-solar, wind-solar-and-storage-three-ideas-to-accelerate-australias-green-energy-transition, big-batteries-charge-on-to-centre-stage-with-new-tricks-for-the-grid, queensland-sets-new-wind-output-record-as-it-plays-catch-up-to-rest-of-country, wa-plans-huge-switch-to-solar-and-storage-as-part-of-stunning-50gw-green-energy-boom, why-western-victoria-needs-and-wants-new-transmission-lines, swedish-renewables-giant-plans-rapid-australia-expansion-after-buying-out-solar-developer
• Greg Jericho on six-budget-2023-graphs-explain-surplus-australia-federal-may-labor-predictions-tax-revenue-cost-of-living-inflation-wages-unemployment-jobseeker-welfare, instead-of-winning-plaudits-why-did-jim-chalmerss-budget-surplus-leave-pundits-nonplussed
• Rod Sims on labor-could-and-should-have-gone-stronger-on-the-petroleum-resource-rent-tax
• Bruce Chapman and David Lindenmayer on hecs-for-farmers-nature-repair-loans-could-help-biodiversity-recover-and-boost-farm-productivity
• Ben Phillips on budget-spends-big-on-support-but-wont-make-much-difference-to-poverty
• Peter Martin on budget-2023-budgeting-for-difficult-times-is-hard-just-ask-chalmers
• Hal Serissen on the-aged-care-budget-delivers-for-workers-but-meeting-our-future-needs-will-require-bold-funding-reforms
• John Hawkins on no-the-budget-does-not-make-further-interest-rate-rises-more-likely
• Bec Strating and Joanne Wallis on australia-s-future-security-where-defence-strategic-review-falls-short
• Sourush Basirat on unlocking-potential-magnetite-ore-australias-iron-and-steel-transition
• Bruce Robertson on australia-transitioning-gas-out-energy-system

Northern America

• Oliver Willis explains on the-media-hid-donald-trumps-physical Thanks Brad
• Kruggers on in defence of debt gimmicks Thanks Brad
• TKer on profit-led-inflation-excuseflation-greedflation Thanks Brad
• Jessica Karl on pacwest-western-alliance-stocks-fall-as-americans-lose-trust-in-bank-deposits Thanks Brad
• Nicole Narea on texas-mall-shooting-greg-abbott-gun-violence-mental-health
• Fabiola Cineas on republicans-want-to-defund-public-libraries-book-bans
• Dahlia Lithwick on harlan-crow-school-payments-insult-injury
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-the-fed-is-back-on-the-curve
• Dan Rodrick on biden-administration-international-economic-agenda-must-not-undermine-global-economy thanks Brad
• noahopinion on why-the-us-should-fight-cold-war2, interracial-violence-is-rare-in-the-USA
• Josh Marshall on gops-write-their-own-debt-ceiling-adventure Thanks Brad
• new deal democrat on credit-conditions-worsen-and-likely-to-worsen-further-due-to-debt-ceiling-debacle-ii, inflation-ex-shelter-increasing-at-1-0-annualized-rate-since-last-june-core-inflation-with-actual-house-prices-only-up-3-0-yoy
• Nic Bisley on biden-s-quiet-economic-revolution
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-assault-rifles-weapons-national-association-gun-rights-naperville-brett-kavanaugh
• the conversable economist on replace-federal-taxes-with-a-national-sales-tax
• Jeet Heer on clarence-thomas-supreme-court-enablers
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-04-in-april
• Emma Shortis on you-might-think-trump-being-found-liable-for-sexual-abuse-and-defamation-would-derail-his-re-election-campaign-but-its-not-that-simple
• Ben Jacobs on george-santos-federal-charges-court-new-york-money-laundering
• Ronnel Jones and Dahlia Lithwick on cnn-town-hall-donald-trump-defaming-e-jean-carroll
• the garden of forking paths on will-republicans-defy-trumps-authoritarian Thanks Brad
• drezners world on can-a-decent-republican-win-in-2024 Thanks Brad
• Zack Beauchamp on cnn-trump-town-hall-kaitlan-collins
• Michael Socolow on donald-trump-cnn-town-hall-kaitlan-collins-chris-licht-interview-alternatives
• Robert Katzberg on trump-verdict-carroll-trial-takeaways-georgia-doj-ny
• Eric Kramer on trump-the-road-to-serfdom-and-the-debt-ceiling
• Brad De Long on our-current-moderate-inflation-is-truly-not-a-serious-problem
• Andrew Prokop on hunter-biden-investigation-taxes-indictment
• Norman Eisen et al on donald-trump-incriminated-himself-criminally-cnn-town-hall

Europe

• Khalid Al Bostanji on turkeys-erdogan-is-facing-re-election-to-hold-onto-power-can-a-divided-opposition-oust-the-strongman
• stumbling and mumbling on why-not-celebrate-full-employment
• Mainly Macro on the-tyranny-of-nostalgia
• Jen Kirby on russia-ukraine-war-kharkiv-city-transformed

Asia

• Nicole Narea on imran-khan-arrested-pakistan-protest-prime-minister
• Zahid Ahmed on how-imran-khans-populism-has-divided-pakistan-and-put-it-on-a-knifes-edge
• Shankaran Nambiar on malaysia-s-anwar-seeks-asian-monetary-fund-dedollarisation
• Adnan Amir on pakistan-s-gamble-russian-oil

Wonk

• Henry Farrell on the-protestant-ethic-and-the-spirit-of-mastodon
• Victor Ferguson and Viking Bohman on play-defence-any-collective-response-china-s-economic-coercion
• Tim Harford on does-winning-the-lottery-actually-ruin-your-life
• Nick Gruen on wellbeing-can-we-escape-the-iron-law-of-business-as-usual
• the conversable economist on spring-2023-journal-of-economic-perspectives-free-online, marx-on-economics-its-true-ideal-is-the-ascetic-but-rapacious-skinflint-and-the-ascetic-but-productive-slave-2, gender-academia-economics
• Michael Spence on industrial-policy-us-chips-and-science-act-debate Thanks Brad
• noahopinion on a-demtech-economic-agenda-ten-steps, generative-ai-and-the-finance-industry
• coppolla comment on bank-failures-its-all-about-liquidity

General

• Shai Dai et al on flip-flopping-magnetic-fields-hint-at-a-solution-for-puzzling-fast-radio-bursts-from-space
• Brad Tucker on how-fast-is-the-universe-really-expanding-multiple-views-of-an-exploding-star-raise-new-questions

Climate

• Moyhu on april-global-surface-templs-down-0158-from-march
• skeptical science on at-a-glance-impacts-of-global-warming
• Martin Jucker on smoke-from-the-black-summer-fires-could-have-made-the-triple-la-nina-more-likely
• Andrew Blakers on despairing-about-climate-change-these-4-charts-on-the-unstoppable-growth-of-solar-may-change-your-mind

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• using-predictions-from-arbitrary-models-to-get-tighter-confidence-intervals
  
• these-corruption-statistics-are-literally-incredible
  
• using-anthropic-reasoning-to-think-about-researchers-priors-on-effect-sizes
  
• bda-bayesian-dolphin-analysis
  
• two-talks-about-robust-objectives-for-visualization-design-and-evaluation
  
• why-do-journalists-make-it-so-hard-to-find-their-email-addresses
  
• the-market-can-become-rational-faster-than-you-can-get-out
  
• physics-educators-do-great-work-with-innovative-teaching-they-should-do-better-in-evaluating-evidence-of-effectiveness-and-be-more-open-to-criticism
  
• the-political-pendulum-abortion-edition
  
• lots-of-confusion-around-probability-its-a-jungle-out-there
  
• Kaiser Fung on how-do-storytellers-use-data, game-of-telephone-for-data, residual-problems-of-intelligence

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• competent-government-read-and-weep
  
• Alex Tabarrok on lessons-from-the-covid-war
• Institutional economics on book-club-scott-sumners

Vox Wonk

• learning-silicon-valley-banks-uninsured-deposit-run
  
• global-monetary-and-financial-spillovers-evidence-new-measure-bundesbank-policy
  
• floods-and-firms-europe-destruction-and-reallocation
  
• trade-fragmentation-matters-bank-credit-supply-new-evidence-international-banking
  
• credit-suisse-too-big-manage-too-big-resolve-or-simply-too-big
  
• carbon-costs-hardly-harm-firms
  
• climate-regulation-and-financial-risk-challenge-policy-uncertainty
  
• what-happens-when-ai-comes-healthcare
  
• reducing-barriers-support-services-domestic-violence-cases-leads-more-effective-use
  

Trump is a sexual abuser

 A jury of his peers has found Trump guilty of sexual abuse and libel.

A few points that I have gathered from people who should know.

The jury thought Trump the liar not his accuser.I find this unsurprising given Trump lies like no-one else.

His lawyer was way too aggressive against the lady making the accusations. this worked in the 70s and maybe the 80s  but not these days.

Trump is one of the worst witnesses one can get. his testimony in the deposition was terrible. He mistook Carroll for one of his wives showing she was someone he would fancy. He also essentially gave the prosecution as much ammunition as they needed. this shows he not only has 'senior ' moments but also he is very stupid. THIS article highlights this.

It is no wonder he was not called as a witness nor will he  in any further trials.

People who want to win the presidency need to win over voters who are registered voters of the other party and independents. This major loss for Trump makes this more unlikely

The budget

 Just a short note on the budget.

Firstly a surplus is when the surplus is greater than 1% of GDP. This budget is merely balanced.

Here is my mate PETER MARTIN on the budget.

As I have said previously the ALP have inherited a precarious situation as the previous government did no budget repair. By that I am referring to the structural deficit. It is hard to reduce a structural deficit of 50-$60B structural deficit AFTER the RBA has raised rates quite a bit. It is almost a recipe for recession.

When you consider how timid the current government is perhaps we should be happy with the small improvement in the structural deficit.

Let me let off some steam. I get almost angry when I hear people such as Chris Richardson and Steve Anthony who should know better claim Keating or costello have done much better than this government. Fellahs Wayne Swan holds the record easily for the tightest budget ever delivered!!

It is this financial year we need to be wary of boosting inflation and the budget is slightly contractionary. So if you think demand is the reason why inflation rose and it isn't then this budget won't exacerbate the inflation.

We need to see what and how the government will control its spending ( aged care, NDIS, defence etc) as the medium tern projections although better than originally forecast still have the budget in deficit when it needs to be in surplus. 

How I wish we had some fair dinkum politicians who could say to the punters we have to take some bad medicine if the budget is to be in surplus which it does. The reason why energy prices are high is over reliance on fossil fuels. Inflation was a supply shock. sigh

It was a long journey

 My youngest sister's youngest son got married on Sunday near Tweed Heads. We drove to Queensland via Toowoomba and then Brisbane to see relatives on my wife's side before driving to the wedding.

We drove up on friday and it took 12 hours to get to Toowoomba. this was due to two breaks and at least 19 times we had to wait perhaps 5 minutes for road works on the new england highway.

The wedding was interesting. highly secular and I could not get used to people drinking before, during and after the wedding ceremony.

The Pacific Highway is almost all dual carriageway between Brisbane and Sydney save for Coffs Harbour. but it is almighty boring.

Long car trips are not for older people I have now discovered.

Should just add the GPS's in smartphones are very good. We missed a large traffic problem near the bridge on the pacific highway near Newcastle because of my two son's smartphones

Around the Traps 5/5/23

 it is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Michael Keating on aukus-and-australias-national-sovereignty Thanks Nick Gruen
• Chris Wallace on the-liberals-are-the-fifth-iteration-of-australias-main-centre-right-party-could-the-voice-campaign-hasten-a-sixth
• Sean O'Byrne on australia-wants-to-build-a-laser-that-can-stop-a-tank-heres-why-directed-energy-weapons-are-on-the-military-wishlist
• Reuben Steff on aukus-nz-win-win
• renew economy on she-didnt-want-to-go-tears-and-hugs-as-oldest-coal-generator-shuts-down-for-last-time, hazelwood-battery-charges-up-for-first-time-at-site-of-former-coal-generator, as-liddell-exits-andrew-forrest-launches-first-wind-farm-to-join-nsw-grid-in-over-a-year, nsw-gets-stunning-low-price-for-wind-and-solar-in-biggest-renewables-auction, eight-hour-big-battery-trumps-pumped-hydro-in-nsw-long-duration-storage-tender, low-wind-and-solar-prices-and-long-duration-batteries-where-now-for-pumped-hydro, snowy-2-0-project-pushed-back-to-late-2029-costs-to-blow-out-again
• croaking cassandra on decaying-institutions, inflation-monetary-policy-and-accountability, reappointing-and-extending-mpc-members
• Nicola Willand on 1-in-4-households-struggle-to-pay-power-bills-here-are-5-ways-to-tackle-hidden-energy-poverty
• Dennis Muller on journalists-reporting-on-the-voice-to-parliament-do-voters-a-disservice-with-he-said-she-said-approach
• Henry Cutler on heres-why-pharmacists-are-angry-at-script-changes-and-why-the-government-is-making-them-anyway
• Ariel Lehman on kicking-the-gas-can-down-the-road-why-a-gas-price-cap-is-the-worst-way-to-protect-energy-consumers
• Peter Breadon and Lachlan Fox on new-medicare-reforms-wont-fix-everything-but-they-start-to-tackle-the-systems-biggest-problems
• Andrew Leigh on choosing-openness-international-economy
• Greg Jericho on this-latest-interest-rates-rise-suggests-the-rba-board-is-completely-lost-to-logic
• John Quiggin on job-creation-isnt-always-a-good-thing-hobarts-new-stadium-can-only-make-tasmanias-housing-crisis-worse
• Alex Millmow on jim-chalmers-wants-a-truly-independent-rba-he-should-be-careful-what-he-wishes-for
• Ross Gittins on starving-unemployed-shames-us-all
• Andrew Blakers on im-not-an-apologist-for-the-snowy-2-0-hydro-scheme-but-lets-not-obsess-over-the-delays-and-cost-blowouts

Northern America

• Dylan Mathews on medicaid-work-requirements-republicans-food-stamps-cash-welfare
• noahopinion on first-republic-falls-is-the-banking-crisis-restarting-again
• Liz Anderson on the-13th-amendment-case-for-a-right-to-abortion
• slow boring on more-courage-less-fear
• coppolla comment on first-republic-bank-goes-to-meet-its-maker
• Nicole Narea on first-republic-bank-failure-crisis-fdic
• Menzie Chinn on the-unexpected-compression
• Ian Milhiser on supreme-court-chevron-deference-loper-bright-raimondo
• Ales Aronson on john-roberts-double-standard-trump
• Richard Henderson on stock-markets-today-banking-crisis-federal-reserve-carl-icahn-hindenburg Thanks Brad
• Kruggers on why are so many people worried about the dollars future thanks Brad
• Jeet Heer on tucker-carlson-fake-populism-fascism, sean-mcelwee-democracy-betting
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on supreme-court-ethics-hearing-one-lesson
• the conversable economist on the-att-merger-with-time-warner-another-follow-up

Europe

• Jen Kirby on ukraine-war-russia-missile-attack-explosion-bombing-counteroffensive
• Mainly Macro on why-deteriorating-healthcare-is-a-macro-economic-issue
• renew economy on renewables-cover-half-of-germany-electricity-demand
• Mathew Sussex on why-ukraines-fate-rests-on-its-imminent-counteroffensive
• Isaac Chotiner on why-russian-elites-think-putins-war-is-doomed-to-fail

Asia

• Genevieve Donnellon-May on south-korea-can-t-afford-be-wally-water 
• Tiza Mafira on how-indonesia-can-afford-cut-coal-fired-power-faster
• noahopinion on herecomesindia, how-pakistan-can-join-the-south-asia-growth-boom
• Sanchari Ghosh on indo-pacific-here-yet-asia-pacific-lives

Wonk

• Richard Hanania on towards-an-enlightened-centrism Thanks Nick Gruen
• Felix Martin on investors-can-discount-imfs-emerging-market-gloom Thanks Nick Gruen
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-restructuring-debt-of-african-commodity-exporters
• Tim Harford on has-21st-century-policy-gone-medieval
• Stephen Grenville on international-debt-time-global-restructuring-framework
• noahopinion on the-new-industrial-policy-explained
• Alee Verjee on five-potential-global-consequences-sudan-s-escalating-conflict

General

• Benjamin Thompson on wild-caught-seafood-is-often-untraceable-and-some-industry-players-dont-want-that-to-change-heres-why

Climate

• Quark soup on global-sst-at-record-high
• Met office on el-nino-on-the-way
• Peter Sinclair on coming-el-nino-could-be-a-monster
• Andrew Freedman on ocean-temperature-spike-climate
• Andrew King and Stephen Sherwood on two-trillion-tonnes-of-greenhouse-gases-25-billion-nukes-of-heat-are-we-pushing-earth-out-of-the-goldilocks-zone
• skeptical science on at-a-glance-iceage
• renew economy on the-thinking-error-that-makes-people-susceptible-to-climate-change-denial

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• knee-meniscus-repair-is-it-useful-potential-biases-in-intent-to-treat-studies
  
• a-proposal-to-build-new-hardware-and-thermodynamic-algorithms-for-stochastic-computing
  
• analog-computing-and-hybrid-computing-the-view-from-1962
  
• carl-morris-man-out-of-time-reflections-on-empirical-bayes-2
  
• workflow-the-big-picture
  

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• re-building-manchester
  
• Tyler Cowen on the-chile-project, what-ive-been-reading-and-not-having-time-to-read
• Sebastian Park on making-good-decisions Thanks Brad

Vox Wonk

• decomposing-rise-populist-radical-right-how-changes-priorities-explain-electoral
  
• natural-gas-prices-and-unnatural-propagation-effects-role-inflation-expectations-euro
  
• big-banks-must-become-globally-resolvable-or-significantly-smaller
  
• loan-securitisation-during-transition-low-carbon-economy
  
• effects-transaction-taxes-housing-markets
  
• aggregate-cost-cartels