Enjoy
Saturday, 31 January 2015
Frank Zappa
I saw Frank Zappa at the Hordern Pavillion and it was amazing. Jean Luc Ponty was brilliant but Garry McDonald ( as Norman Gunston) was fantastic on mouth harp.
Enjoy
Enjoy
Thursday, 29 January 2015
Around the Traps 30.1/15
It is time for Around the Traps.
Quite a bit in the European section due to Greece. I will update on the weekend.
Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
nutting yet. Bad Dave
Dianne Coyle (Quirky + Book Reviews)
Quite a bit in the European section due to Greece. I will update on the weekend.
Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
- The Kouk on canada-rings-the-bell-for-the-rba , inflation-in-free-fall-rba-desperately-needs-to-cut-rates , australia-facing-a-housing-glut
- John Quiggin on abbott-knight-and-bishop
- Andrew Elder on earning-your-pineapple , tom-switzers-blues
- Greg Jericho on inequality-should-be-at-the-forefront-of-a-debate-on-the-minimum-wage , queensland-election-a-fascinating-study-in-cost-of-austerity-politics
- Mumble on lets_talk_about_the_opposition , that_rarity_a_meaningful_gaffe , qld_morning_after
- Jim Rose on what-influence-did-milton-friedman-have-on-1980s-and-1990s-australian-monetary-policy
- Michelle Grattan on whats-wrong-with-team-abbott-is-a-lot-bigger-than-the-credlin
- The Piping Shrike on decay
- Mark the Ballot on january-2015-update
- The Pollbludger on what-happened
- Ross Gittins on the-cpi-isnt-just-made-up-in-office
- Noah Smith on results-of-my-unemployment-bets-with-Kurt-Mitman , postwar-vs-new-gilded-age-how-did-the-middleclass-do , u-s-survived-9-11-iraq-war-great-recession-in-horrible-decade
- Robert Waldeman on cbo-says-obamacare-will-cost-20-less-than-initial-projections
- Calculated Risk on comments-on-new-home-sales , house-prices-better-seasonal-adjustment
- Bruce Webb on cbo-budget-and-economic-outlook-2015-to-2025
- Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-while-we-wait-for-yet-another-fomc-statement , fed-watch-fomc-decision
- Brad DeLong on macroeconomic-situation-macroeconomic-policy-insiders-outsiders-focus
- Nick Rowe on interest-rates-exchange-rates-and-the-bank-of-canada
- Timothy Taylor on the-moynihan-report-50-years-later Thanks Mark
- Menzie Chinn on more-on-u-s-employment-post-trough , some-observations-2014q4-gdp
- James Hamilton on another-solid-gdp-report
- Kruggers on the-greek-stand-by-arrangement , internal-devaluation-in-greece , thinking-about-the-new-greek-crisis , i-do-not-think-that-number-means-what-you-think-it-means
- Simon Wren-Lewis on keeping-quiet-about-hidden-motives , debt-restructuring-proposed-principle , to-all-uk-journalists , delusions-on-uk-left
- Luke Brinker on krugman_austerians_balanced_budget_fetish_is_deeply_irresponsible Thanks Brad
- Antonio Fatas on grexit-it-is-not-debt-it-is-future Thanks Mark
- Tony Yates on greeces-primary-budget-surplus-is-not-much-of-a-bargaining-chip , post-syriza-post Thanks Mark
- Francesco Saraceno on who-are-the-radicals-in-europe Thanks Mark
- Peter Dorman on prospects-for-syriza
- Tim Harford on the-great-data-debate
- Chris Dillow on basic-income-some-issues
- Fintan O'Toole on why-irish-political-elite-is-terrified-of-syriza
- Yanis Varoufakis on finance-ministry-slows-blogging-down-but-ends-it-not He is the new Greek Finance Minister Thanks Brad
- Kevin O'Rourke on a-moment-of-truth-for-the-european-project
- Lord Keynes on unemployment-in-greece
- Antonio Fatas on greece-emu-and-democracy Thanks Mark
- Nick Gruen on vox-pop-journalism-as-a-system-of-domination-syriza-edition
- Menzie Chinn on the-economics-of-china-and-more
- David Glasner on did-david-hume-discover-the-vertical-phillips-curve , the-near-irrelevance-of-the-vertical-long-run-phillips-curve
- Robert Waldeman on on-glasner-on-friedman-on-phillips
- James Hamilton on whats-driving-the-price-of-oil-down-2
- Timothy Taylor on productivity-of-high-income-countries
- Noah Smith on social-safety-net-business-startups-and-risk-aversion
- Daniel Little on the-mode-of-production-as-societys-structure
- Nick Rowe on does-monopoly-power-cause-inflation , why-shouldnt-central-banks-buy-risky-and-illiquid-assets
- Simon Wren-Lewis on post-recession-lessons
- Chris Dillow on marginal-product-and-incomes , the-lefts-ideas , inequality-non-linearities-growth , micro-efficient-macro-inefficient
- Jim Rose on the-success-of-monetarism-in-the-death-of-the-correlation-between-monetary-growth-and-inflation
- Tony Yates on no-legislation-on-the-taylor-rule-please thanks Mark
- Kruggers on bad-tayloring-2
- Corey Robin on on-international-holocaust-remembrance-day
- John Bartle on how-to-predict-the-outcome-of-a-general-election
- Cengis Gunes on kurds-turn-the-tide-against-islamic-state-in-kobane
- David Singer on Yemen crumbles, Iraq stumbles , USA fumbles
- Hotwhopper on adcrut4-equalling-slightly-besting-the-hottest-year , getting-tad-excitable-at-wuwt-over-ups-and-downs-of-ENSO
- Skeptical Science on climate-change-could-impact-poor-more-previously-thought , kevin-cowtan-debunks-christopher-booker-temp-conspiracy-theory , strengers-wins-wager-with-skeptic-labohm, /new-research-reveals-extreme-oxygen-loss-in-oceans-during-past-climate-change
- Stoat on the-monckton-et-al-paper-is-complete-trash
- Joe Romm om blizzards-climate-scientists
- Noah Smith on nuclear-will-die-solar-will-live
- tell-me-what-you-dont-know
- hypothetical-phase-diagram-statistical-computational-method
- statistical-crisis-science-talk-thurs-harvard-psychology-department
- perhaps-merely-accident-history-skeptics-subjectivists-alike-strain-gnat-prior-distribution-swallowing-camel-likelihood
- crowdsourcing-data-analysis-soccer-referees-give-red-cards-dark-skin-toned-players
- zillion-people-pointed-xkcd-cartoon
- prepared-first-day-class
- six-quick-tips-improve-regression-modeling
- cognitive-vs-behavioral-psychology-economics-political-science
- Noah Smith on priors-and-posteriors
- Kaiser Fung on how-optimizely-will-kill-your-winning-percentage-and-why-that-is-a-great-thing-for-you-part-1 , limits-of-statistics-and-by-extension-data-science-as-illustrated-by-deflate-gate
Dianne Coyle (Quirky + Book Reviews)
- macroeconomics-without-the-blinkers, unhistorical-economics , listening to the radio the hard way
- Tim Harford on the-organised-mind-by-daniel-j-levitin-the-life-changing-magic-of-tidying-by-marie-kondo
- Chris Dillow on frederic-bastiat-football-punditry
- youth-employment-and-summer-employment-programmes
- race-choice
- house-prices-local-demand-and-retail-prices
- cross-border-financial-linkages-identifying-and-measuring-vulnerabilities
- syriza-and-debt-talks-estimates-rubinstein-bargain-approach
- eu-new-fiscal-flexibility-guidelines-assessment
- restructure-eu-banks-facilitate-resolution
- capital-21st-century
- drivers-cross-border-banking-global-crisis
- bank-portfolio-choice-and-macroeconomy
- fdi-and-developing-nation-supply-chains-four-case-studies
- secular-stagnation-eurozone
- fiscal-policy-explains-weak-recovery
- role-demography-explaining-secular-stagnation
- new-vox-debate-secular-stagnation
Wednesday, 28 January 2015
Fiscal Consolidation
I notice Judith Sloan got her knickers in a knot about when does a country undertake fiscal consolidation.
The answer is pretty easy. fiscal consolidation or austerity should be undertaken when times are good just as Keynes said way back in 1936.
The last time Sloan wrote about this topic The Kouk showed her figures were all contrary to those in the budget papers. I then looked at all Labor budgets but couldn't find in any Budget or MYEFO where Sloan could have got her figures from. We can be thankful she hasn't done that here! We should also note she never told us where she got those figures from.
I have to say there isn't a lot more one needs to add to this piece from the Kouk.
One might also add this from Simon Wren-Lewis on Europe.
If a country under-takes fiscal consolidation too soon it risks destroying any recovery. We saw this in the USA in 1937 , in Japan in 1990s and even here when Wayne Swan brought down the most restrictive budget in history. Swam actually cut NOMINAL not just real spending.
Unfortunately for him and Australia with nominal GDP weak from the falling terms of trade it simply made the economy weaker and hence the budgetary situation got worse after getting better. The Deficit which fell from 2.9% of GDP to 1.2% of GDP consequently rose over 1% of GDP. Even with low wage growth and stalling revenues we have a deficit of 2.5% of GDP! wow.
When you undertake fiscal consolidation you reduce the structural deficit. This impacts on the cyclical part of the budget which is far larger. Thus if you undertake austerity too soon then the economy will weaken.
Fiscal policy is quite potent. You fiddle with it at your peril!
Update
Alas the peroxide princess believes national budgets are just like household budgets.
Some people are just like the Bourbons. Never learn, Keep on making the same mistakes.
The answer is pretty easy. fiscal consolidation or austerity should be undertaken when times are good just as Keynes said way back in 1936.
The last time Sloan wrote about this topic The Kouk showed her figures were all contrary to those in the budget papers. I then looked at all Labor budgets but couldn't find in any Budget or MYEFO where Sloan could have got her figures from. We can be thankful she hasn't done that here! We should also note she never told us where she got those figures from.
I have to say there isn't a lot more one needs to add to this piece from the Kouk.
One might also add this from Simon Wren-Lewis on Europe.
If a country under-takes fiscal consolidation too soon it risks destroying any recovery. We saw this in the USA in 1937 , in Japan in 1990s and even here when Wayne Swan brought down the most restrictive budget in history. Swam actually cut NOMINAL not just real spending.
Unfortunately for him and Australia with nominal GDP weak from the falling terms of trade it simply made the economy weaker and hence the budgetary situation got worse after getting better. The Deficit which fell from 2.9% of GDP to 1.2% of GDP consequently rose over 1% of GDP. Even with low wage growth and stalling revenues we have a deficit of 2.5% of GDP! wow.
When you undertake fiscal consolidation you reduce the structural deficit. This impacts on the cyclical part of the budget which is far larger. Thus if you undertake austerity too soon then the economy will weaken.
Fiscal policy is quite potent. You fiddle with it at your peril!
Update
Alas the peroxide princess believes national budgets are just like household budgets.
Some people are just like the Bourbons. Never learn, Keep on making the same mistakes.
Tuesday, 27 January 2015
Is Tony for the high jump?
Yesterday was interesting. both John Quiggin and Sinclair Davidson wondered where however both got their wonderings wrong.
John thought out loudly about Bishop replacing Abbot. He seemingly forgot her disastrous time as Opposition spokeswoman on Treasury. if she was to be put in as leader then Hockey would be removed as treasurer but Turnbull could not replace him as the right wing would not wear that.
Way too many problems for a change.
Davidson wants all AOs to be replaced by knighthoods and Dames. however given that Angus Houston still wants to be known as Angus and NOT Sir we can reasonably assume knighthoods in Australia are an embarrassment.
More so when you award one to the Queen's husband and is clearly inferior to the umpteen titles he already has. What exactly he has done in service for Australia is unclear. His best supporters said yesterday he was patron of a lot of causes in this land, A patron is merely a figurehead who does no work at all. Oh dear.
The great problem the Liberals have is that there are NO people who one could say are leadership material. Moreover they are unlikely to do anything until much closer to the next election. Indeed by the time they think they may lose it could well be too late.
I still think the most important thing to examine on whether the government is re-elected or not is whether nominal GDP rises and gets back to trend levels. If it does the government will win. If it doesn't they will not.
John thought out loudly about Bishop replacing Abbot. He seemingly forgot her disastrous time as Opposition spokeswoman on Treasury. if she was to be put in as leader then Hockey would be removed as treasurer but Turnbull could not replace him as the right wing would not wear that.
Way too many problems for a change.
Davidson wants all AOs to be replaced by knighthoods and Dames. however given that Angus Houston still wants to be known as Angus and NOT Sir we can reasonably assume knighthoods in Australia are an embarrassment.
More so when you award one to the Queen's husband and is clearly inferior to the umpteen titles he already has. What exactly he has done in service for Australia is unclear. His best supporters said yesterday he was patron of a lot of causes in this land, A patron is merely a figurehead who does no work at all. Oh dear.
The great problem the Liberals have is that there are NO people who one could say are leadership material. Moreover they are unlikely to do anything until much closer to the next election. Indeed by the time they think they may lose it could well be too late.
I still think the most important thing to examine on whether the government is re-elected or not is whether nominal GDP rises and gets back to trend levels. If it does the government will win. If it doesn't they will not.
Monday, 26 January 2015
Greece
Greece will have a new government elected on a platform of anti-austerity.
Now let us get its straight as Kruggers shows Greece has certainly done a lot to improve its budgetary position.
However as Tony Yates shows it cannot go alone.
The problem in Europe is that the new Government are not all that radical.It is the Germans who are very radical and very wrong.
The BIG problem is Europe is that the Germans , like the bourbons, have learnt nothing about their failures. Until the Germans stop living in their delusions and understand what is occurring in the real world Greece ( and Europe) will continue to idle.
Update
Simon Wren-Lewis makes, as usual, some sensible suggestions.
Now let us get its straight as Kruggers shows Greece has certainly done a lot to improve its budgetary position.
However as Tony Yates shows it cannot go alone.
The problem in Europe is that the new Government are not all that radical.It is the Germans who are very radical and very wrong.
The BIG problem is Europe is that the Germans , like the bourbons, have learnt nothing about their failures. Until the Germans stop living in their delusions and understand what is occurring in the real world Greece ( and Europe) will continue to idle.
Update
Simon Wren-Lewis makes, as usual, some sensible suggestions.
Sunday, 25 January 2015
Industrial Relations
The Productivity Commission will be examining the Industrial Relations system.
This is no bad thing. It is always good to review how things are going, to see if improvements can be made etc. There is no reason to think the Commission will not do a decent job in examining the present set up.
Critics of the present system such as Steve Kates, Judith Sloan and Gerard Henderson have egg all over their faces. They believe the previous government re-regulated the Industrial Relations systems.
However in the three key areas nothing has changed. We have not seen industrial disputation rise. Wages are not substantially above where we might expect them to be indeed they are growing slower than have ever been recorded and unemployment is not higher than otherwise might have been i.e. the NAIRU has not risen.
I would like to see similar action taken to what the Nationals did in New Zealand when they had only 96 pages of legislation. This improved the flexibility of the labour force , reduced the NAIRU and did not have the intention of destroying trade unions that Work Choices had. Indeed Work Choices was the greatest re-regulation we have witnessed in recent times.
I await the findings with great interest and hope.
This is no bad thing. It is always good to review how things are going, to see if improvements can be made etc. There is no reason to think the Commission will not do a decent job in examining the present set up.
Critics of the present system such as Steve Kates, Judith Sloan and Gerard Henderson have egg all over their faces. They believe the previous government re-regulated the Industrial Relations systems.
However in the three key areas nothing has changed. We have not seen industrial disputation rise. Wages are not substantially above where we might expect them to be indeed they are growing slower than have ever been recorded and unemployment is not higher than otherwise might have been i.e. the NAIRU has not risen.
I would like to see similar action taken to what the Nationals did in New Zealand when they had only 96 pages of legislation. This improved the flexibility of the labour force , reduced the NAIRU and did not have the intention of destroying trade unions that Work Choices had. Indeed Work Choices was the greatest re-regulation we have witnessed in recent times.
I await the findings with great interest and hope.
Saturday, 24 January 2015
Cat Stevens
I never liked Cat Stevens a lot whilst most of my school mates did.
This is the one song I did like.
On the road to find out.
Quite interesting lyrics
This is the one song I did like.
Quite interesting lyrics
Thursday, 22 January 2015
Around the Traps 23/1/15
It is time for Around the Traps again.
Busy on the weekend but will try to update on Sunday
Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
Dianne Coyle (Quirky + Book Reviews)
Busy on the weekend but will try to update on Sunday
Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
- The Kouk on 2015-not-starting-well-for-australia , a-little-bit-of-good-news-but-will-it-last , the-rba-needs-to-wake-up-after-snoozing-in-2014
- Peter Martin on low-bond-rates-abbott-prepares-to-pass-up-the-deal-of-the-century , highly-taxed-acoss-says-middle-income-pay-11c-in-the-dollar , minimal-evidence-against-minimum-wage
- Greg Jericho on after-slow-growth-the-rbas-first-move-is-likely-to-cut-interest-rates , despite-good-news-on-the-unemployment-rate-the-fight-for-jobs-is-as-tough-as-ever , joe-hockey-either-doesnt-understand-how-tax-works-or-he-is-deliberately-misleading-the-public
- Mumble on how_rumours_start , killing_season
- Andrew Elder on health-and-education
- Chris Lloyd on domestic-violence
- Noah Smith on delong-smackdown-patrol-how-worse-off-are-we-really
- Edward Lambert on components-of-a-fed-rate-real-rate-inflation-response
- Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-will-the-fed-take-a-dovish-turn-next-week , fed-watch-seconded , fed-watch-policy-divergence
- Brad De Long on ezra-klein-republicans-cant-replace-obamacare
- Calculated Risk on comments-on-december-housing-starts , a-few-comments-on-december-existing-home-sales
- Mark Thoma on loans-to-low-income-households-did-not-cause-the-financial-crisis
- Carter Price on learned-aca-last-year Thanks Brad
- Kruggers on insiders-outsiders-and-u-s-monetary-policy
- Menzie Chinn on private-employment-under-obama-and-bush
- Noah Smith on spending-more-on-public-schools-boosts-u-s-economy
- Kruggers on switzerland-qe-too , the-european-scene , euroblunders , how-super-was-mario-wonkish
- James Hamilton on switzerland-drops-its-currency-peg
- Simon Wren-Lewis on mediamacro-and-responsibility , that-170-bombshell , alternative-eurozone-histories
- Chris Dillow on doubts-about-tv-debates , real-wages-inflation
- Tony Yates on swiss-national-bank-or-swiss-private-seigniorage-machine
- Harold Sanders on as-eurozone-squares-up-to-quantitative-easing-are-fears-justified
- Simon Reich on can-the-french-teach-us-a-basic-civics-lesson-about-handling-terrorism
- Jamie Mackay on syriza-is-nightmare-for-italian-government
- Lord Keynes on is-peter-hitchens-a-keynesian
- Roger Farmer on why-ecb-should-take-more-risks Thanks Mark
- Tony Yates on ecb-qe-much-too-late-and-not-to-be-counted-on Thanks Mark
- Francesco Saraceno on confidence-and-the-bazooka
- Miles Kimball on righting-rogoff-on-monetary-policy
- Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-what-drives-housing-dynamics-in-china , guest-contribution-measuring-the-on-going-changes-in-chinas-capital-controls
- Larrs.P.Syll on new-keynesian-haiku-economics Thanks Mark
- Nick Rowe on negative-money-in-an-olg-model
- Chris Dillow on against-pensioner-bonds , the-oblique-path-to-growth
- Robert Waldeman on how-about-pegging-a-long-term-interest-rate , on-smith-on-rowe-on-krugman-on-friedman
- Noah Smith on 5-questions-for-nick-rowe-about-victory
- Simon Wren-Lewis on when-central-bank-losses-matter
- Menzie Chinn on imf-world-economic-outlook-update
- David Glasner on credibility-and-the-central-bank-balance-sheet , nick-rowe-goes-bonkers-over-milton-friedman
- Tim Taylor on global-economic-growth-all-productivity-all-the-time Thanks Mark
- Nick Rowe on the-new-keynesian-case-for-price-controls
- Robert Skidelsky on the fall of the house of samuelson Thanks Brad
- Robert Waldeman on 2013-and-all-that-ii Will Scott Sumner say he is wrong?
- Chris Dillow on jose-mourinho-vs-methodological-individualism , the-1-cest-moi , not-seeing-luck
- Tim Harford on the-power-of-saying-no
- Mark Thoma on poorer-parents-are-just-as-involved-in-their-childrens-activities-as-better-off-parents
- Simon Wren-Lewis on encouraging-dialogue-between-economists-and-social-scientists
- Scepticlawyer on good-appeasement-and-bad-appeasement
- Jim Rose on measurement-without-theory-alert-its-time-for-companies-to-fire-their-human-resource-departments-forbes
- Kevin Drum on will-2014-finally-be-year-puts-climate-change-denialist-1998-chestnut-to-rest Thanks Brad
- John Quiggin on increasing-trend-keeps-on-increasing
- Hotwhopper on deniers-have-lost-it-utterly-completely , tricks-used-by-david-rose-denier-'journalist'-to-decieve
- Tamino on its-the-trend-stupid-3
- Joe Romm on noaa-nasa-2014-hottest-year-on-record
- Harry Clarke on review-of-richard-tol-on-climate-change
- Skepticalscience on matt-ridley-wants-to-gamble-earths-future-because-wont-learn-from-past , oceans-warming-so-fast-keep-breaking-scientists-charts
- Real Climate on thoughts-on-2014-and-ongoing-temperature-trends
- lee-sechrest
- surely-first-response-disproof-shocking-surprising-claim-un-shocked-un-surprised-not-try-explain-away-refutation
- another-benefit-of-bloglag
- high-risk-low-return
- debate-using-margin-error-non-probability-panels
- patience-research
- whats-the-point-of-the-margin-of-error
- teach-hypothesis-testing
- Kaiser Fung on three-reasons-to-doubt-the-gdp-gas-price-conjecture
nutin yet Bad Dave!- extreme-value-modelling-in-stata
Dianne Coyle (Quirky + Book Reviews)
- nanny-state-or-government-mad-men , next-book , historicism-and-its-enemies , big-data-meets-humanitarian-response , progress-for-and-against
- servicification-manufacturing-and-trade-policy
- welfare-state-and-migration-coalition-formation-dynamics
- effective-eurozone-qe-size-matters-more-risk-sharing
- what-swiss-fx-shock-says-about-risk-models
- explaining-global-trade-slowdown
- does-marriage-make-you-healthier
- end-swiss-franc-s-one-sided-exchange-rate-band
- rd-tax-incentives-new-evidence-trends-and-effectiveness
- e-commerce-and-price-flexibility-new-evidence
- keep-cash-let-public-hold-central-bank-reserves
- capital-control-effectiveness-firm-level-evidence-brazil
- us-fiscal-multiplier-historical-evidence
- ecb-s-qe-decision
Wednesday, 21 January 2015
Peter Martin 1 Judith Sloan 0
Peter Martin wrote a good column on what the government could do with such low bond rates.
Note he says this.
'If we are prepared to grasp it, there's no shortage of projects that would set us up for decades to come. In education, in health, in the delivery to railway lines into suburbs that are at present barely accessible - in all of these areas there are projects whose benefits would exceed their costs and exceed them by more than enough to pay the minimal rate of interest being demanded.'
He later says this
'the risk is that bad projects would be chosen over good ones and the money wasted. Abbott himself provides reason for concern. Despite promising during the election to "require all Commonwealth-funded projects worth more than $100 million to undergo a cost-benefit analysis by Infrastructure Australia" his first budget funded scores of road projects without such approval. Some of the cost-benefit studies weren't even published, in others the figures were massaged to make them look better than they were.'
From this the redoubtable Judith Sloan alleges thus
'Fund all those expensive boondoggles sorry, I fluffed my lines: visionary nation-building projects that will create jobs and improve the productive capacity of the economy – at special low rates.'
'And all that debt-funded public works has really achieved miracles around the world – just take a look atJapan: over twenty years in the economic doldrums, public debt a multiple of their GDP, but check out those bridges that don’t go anywhere: PRICELESS, REALLY.
Now does this sound anything like Martin proposed?
1) she didn't read what he said. Quite possible although she did link the article
2) She didn't understand the article. It is about budgets ans we know she doesn't read budget papers. NBN is NOT in the national balance sheet anyone?
3) She is deliberately being misleading about Martin's position. Again quite likely
Please note NONE of the commenters have read Martin's piece either.
Catallaxy is simply an echo chamber of the ignorant
Note he says this.
'If we are prepared to grasp it, there's no shortage of projects that would set us up for decades to come. In education, in health, in the delivery to railway lines into suburbs that are at present barely accessible - in all of these areas there are projects whose benefits would exceed their costs and exceed them by more than enough to pay the minimal rate of interest being demanded.'
He later says this
'the risk is that bad projects would be chosen over good ones and the money wasted. Abbott himself provides reason for concern. Despite promising during the election to "require all Commonwealth-funded projects worth more than $100 million to undergo a cost-benefit analysis by Infrastructure Australia" his first budget funded scores of road projects without such approval. Some of the cost-benefit studies weren't even published, in others the figures were massaged to make them look better than they were.'
From this the redoubtable Judith Sloan alleges thus
'Fund all those expensive boondoggles sorry, I fluffed my lines: visionary nation-building projects that will create jobs and improve the productive capacity of the economy – at special low rates.'
'And all that debt-funded public works has really achieved miracles around the world – just take a look atJapan: over twenty years in the economic doldrums, public debt a multiple of their GDP, but check out those bridges that don’t go anywhere: PRICELESS, REALLY.
And who is the salesman? Why none other than Pete (Peter Martin, Economics Editor of The Age.) Here’s the pitch:'
Now does this sound anything like Martin proposed?
No of course not.
Why would she allege that?1) she didn't read what he said. Quite possible although she did link the article
2) She didn't understand the article. It is about budgets ans we know she doesn't read budget papers. NBN is NOT in the national balance sheet anyone?
3) She is deliberately being misleading about Martin's position. Again quite likely
Please note NONE of the commenters have read Martin's piece either.
Catallaxy is simply an echo chamber of the ignorant
Tuesday, 20 January 2015
Movies Review
I saw the Hobbit ( Battle of the five armies) down at Jindabyne with my two sons ans then saw the Imitation game last night with my wife.
I found the Hobbit to be quite enjoyable. I have seen all three movies with my sons. The reason I have liked them is that they are nothing like the book which is quite boring UNLIKE Lord of the Rings (the book).
The Hobbit was made to be quite similar to Lord of the Rings and the Director simply made the decision to stick to what has worked previously.
There is plenty of action and I did like Billy Connolly in particular as a Dwarf king in full battle mode.
If you enjoyed LOTR then you will like this and vica versa.
I wanted to see the Imitation game for some time.
Genial Dave Giles and Barkely Rosser have both said something about Turing and/or the movie . See also Peter Woit and the New York Review of books.
It is an enjoyable movie as Turing attempts to crack the Nazi code.
Turing is played as a man who clearly has Aspergers. He clearly was very bad at socialising and came over to most people very badly.
It is ironic that in the end the team back him up when most clearly do not like him. That provides the flaw and they do become a team.
MI6 clearly are shown as a shadowy organisation.
It too was an enjoyable movie.
Both were quite long as well.
I found the Hobbit to be quite enjoyable. I have seen all three movies with my sons. The reason I have liked them is that they are nothing like the book which is quite boring UNLIKE Lord of the Rings (the book).
The Hobbit was made to be quite similar to Lord of the Rings and the Director simply made the decision to stick to what has worked previously.
There is plenty of action and I did like Billy Connolly in particular as a Dwarf king in full battle mode.
If you enjoyed LOTR then you will like this and vica versa.
I wanted to see the Imitation game for some time.
Genial Dave Giles and Barkely Rosser have both said something about Turing and/or the movie . See also Peter Woit and the New York Review of books.
It is an enjoyable movie as Turing attempts to crack the Nazi code.
Turing is played as a man who clearly has Aspergers. He clearly was very bad at socialising and came over to most people very badly.
It is ironic that in the end the team back him up when most clearly do not like him. That provides the flaw and they do become a team.
MI6 clearly are shown as a shadowy organisation.
It too was an enjoyable movie.
Both were quite long as well.
Monday, 19 January 2015
Test Cricket Australia V India
The Test series is over.
What have we learnt?
The wickets were terrible. Both Smith and Kohli hit 4 centuries in four tests. Australia always made over 500 runs in their first innings and India over 400 runs in their first innings. A batsman's wicket is a very poor wicket. We need more help to the bowlers. WE need more pace and bounce. One century in a series is suffice.
The Umpiring was fine by me EXCEPT they did not intervene to prevent sledging. Let us be very clear. Sledging is NOT permitted under the spirit of cricket. The reason being people who sledge do not show respect of the opposition .
Australia learnt very little form this series. Any batting weaknesses were not seen as the Indian bowling was very poor. It is very hard to make any changes to the batting lineup when everyone succeeded except Watson.
The bowling was lacklustre. An Indian collapse was always going to occur at some time. Harris is not going to be around a lot more. Johnson has lost pace. The others are still not consistent .
The Indians didn't learn a lot either. Sharma too a long time to realise what line you bowl here yet he is highly experienced. The other pace bowlers were lamentable in their length They appear to have a number of very good batsman but you need to get the opposition out twice and they never looked like doing this.
We play for the Ashes in our winter and if I were in England's shoes I would ensure all test wickets are seamer's paradises. To be sure Harris would succeed under these circumstances but our batsmen under pressure could be problematic.
What have we learnt?
The wickets were terrible. Both Smith and Kohli hit 4 centuries in four tests. Australia always made over 500 runs in their first innings and India over 400 runs in their first innings. A batsman's wicket is a very poor wicket. We need more help to the bowlers. WE need more pace and bounce. One century in a series is suffice.
The Umpiring was fine by me EXCEPT they did not intervene to prevent sledging. Let us be very clear. Sledging is NOT permitted under the spirit of cricket. The reason being people who sledge do not show respect of the opposition .
Australia learnt very little form this series. Any batting weaknesses were not seen as the Indian bowling was very poor. It is very hard to make any changes to the batting lineup when everyone succeeded except Watson.
The bowling was lacklustre. An Indian collapse was always going to occur at some time. Harris is not going to be around a lot more. Johnson has lost pace. The others are still not consistent .
The Indians didn't learn a lot either. Sharma too a long time to realise what line you bowl here yet he is highly experienced. The other pace bowlers were lamentable in their length They appear to have a number of very good batsman but you need to get the opposition out twice and they never looked like doing this.
We play for the Ashes in our winter and if I were in England's shoes I would ensure all test wickets are seamer's paradises. To be sure Harris would succeed under these circumstances but our batsmen under pressure could be problematic.
Sunday, 18 January 2015
Book Reviews
A friend lent me two old books he had over the holidays.
The first one is The History of World War 2 by Lt-Colonel E.Bauer.
I originally thought it was a pictorial history but although it has a lot of pictures it also has a lot of writing. It is old but wonderful reading if you like your military history.
I found out a lot of Germans died in the Russian winter from their anuses freezing when going to the toilet!
Hitler was not bad in strategy when attacking but very poor when defence was needed. He loved the counter-attack way too much.
It is a very long read but worth it.
The other book was Berlin the Downfall 1945 by Anony Beevor.
Although this was compulsive reading it was horrific to read. It shows the moral depravity of the human race. We all knew the Nazis as racist murdering thugs but the Red army's exploits matched them.
The German let Russian POWs only have underwear in the winter. Few survived this.
The Red army looted like crazy once into Germany and were surprised just how much better it was in Germany compared to the 'workers paradise' they lived in. German women were gang raped no matter what their age with Female soldiers looking on sometimes!
German soldiers who were wounded and lying on the ground during the winter had their stomachs slit by a knife and died a long painful death. Few German soldiers who surrendered survived.
Delusion was around everywhere in the German high command. Armies were constantly given reinforcements of divisions etc that existed only on paper.
Hitler did not care how many Germans died in fighting the Red Army. The more the better. He would not countenance diverting most of his resources to fight the Red army and so let the Allies move much quicker into Germany. The 'exploits' of the Red army were well known and Germans attempted to flee from them. Fanatical Nazis murdered such Germans as they were 'cowards'!
Everyone should read this book.
The first one is The History of World War 2 by Lt-Colonel E.Bauer.
I originally thought it was a pictorial history but although it has a lot of pictures it also has a lot of writing. It is old but wonderful reading if you like your military history.
I found out a lot of Germans died in the Russian winter from their anuses freezing when going to the toilet!
Hitler was not bad in strategy when attacking but very poor when defence was needed. He loved the counter-attack way too much.
It is a very long read but worth it.
The other book was Berlin the Downfall 1945 by Anony Beevor.
Although this was compulsive reading it was horrific to read. It shows the moral depravity of the human race. We all knew the Nazis as racist murdering thugs but the Red army's exploits matched them.
The German let Russian POWs only have underwear in the winter. Few survived this.
The Red army looted like crazy once into Germany and were surprised just how much better it was in Germany compared to the 'workers paradise' they lived in. German women were gang raped no matter what their age with Female soldiers looking on sometimes!
German soldiers who were wounded and lying on the ground during the winter had their stomachs slit by a knife and died a long painful death. Few German soldiers who surrendered survived.
Delusion was around everywhere in the German high command. Armies were constantly given reinforcements of divisions etc that existed only on paper.
Hitler did not care how many Germans died in fighting the Red Army. The more the better. He would not countenance diverting most of his resources to fight the Red army and so let the Allies move much quicker into Germany. The 'exploits' of the Red army were well known and Germans attempted to flee from them. Fanatical Nazis murdered such Germans as they were 'cowards'!
Everyone should read this book.
Thursday, 15 January 2015
Around the Traps 16/1/15
It is time for Around the Traps again.
Should update over the Weekend.
Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
Should update over the Weekend.
Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
- Jim Rose on market-access-shocks-the-finnish-depression-of-1991-93-compared-with-the-impact-on-new-zealand-of-britains-1973-entry-into-the-common-market , what-is-anybody-still-living-in-east-germany-or-new-zealand
- Andrew Elder on everything-wrong-with-political-journalism
- Greg Jericho on after-slow-growth-the-rbas-first-move-is-likely-to-cut-interest-rates
- Richard Norman on autopsy-of-a-dead-policy-government-shelves-impending-medicare-change
- Timothy Neville and Paul Salmon on you-cannot-be-serious-a-look-at-this-summers-elite-sports-officials
- Robert Waldeman on g-transfers-and-gdp-in-the-current-recovery , secular-stagnation-and-the-us-recovery , social-welfare-programs-and-the-culture-of-dependency-ii
- David Beckworth on dont-worry-be-happy-falling-treasury
- Kevin Drum on non-chart-day-wheres-austerity Thanks Brad
- Kruggers on history-and-policy-failure
- Brad De Long on what-was-going-on-between-the-white-house-and-the-federal-reserve-in-the-early-1980s
- Pro Growth Liberal on robert-samuelson-credits-reagan-for-the-Volker-disinflation
- Peter Orszag on what-brills-bitter-pill-gets-wrong-on-obamacare Thanks Brad
- Menzie Chinn on the-december-employment-release , junk-laws-2015-example-1 , rd-lazear-agrees-with-me-and-alan-auerbach , inflations-looming-shadow
- Lord Keynes on real-us-gdp-1870-2001
- Michael Leachman on state-and-local-tax-systems-hit-lower-income-families-the-hardest Thanks Mark
- David Glasner on thoughts-and-details-on-the-dearly-beloved-bright-and-shining-depression-of-1920-21-of-blessed-memory
- calculated risk on key-measures-show-low-inflation-in-December
- Simon Wren-Lewis on why-did-osborne-not-try-to-protect-the-2010-recovery , let-us-hope-for-syriza-victory , osbornes-res-speech-and-proposed-new-fiscal-rule , what-does-end-of-swiss-peg-tell-us-about-Central-Banks
- Kruggers on a-trip-down-euromemory-lane , regime-change-in-switzerland
- Chris Dillow on austerity-debt-stabilization
- Seamus Coffey on sgp-revised-again
- Lord Keynes on neoclassical-and-quantity-theory-of-the1873-96-deflation
- Menzie Chinn on the-snb-removes-the-cap
- Jim Rose on the-role-of-the-introduction-of-a-five-day-working-week-in-japans-lost-decade , zombie-lending-and-lower-japanese-productivity-growth
- Simon Wren-Lewis on on-monetary-offset-argument , why-below-target-inflation-is-big-problem
- James Hamilton on demand-factors-in-the-collapse-of-oil-prices
- Dan Crawford on oil-price-implications , the-economics-of-stuff-or-secular-stagnation-and-cast-iron-frying-pans
- Barkley Rosser on on-origin-of-ecological-economics
- Nick Rowe on inflation-targeting-destroyed-its-own-signal , a-model-where-ngdplt-beats-inflation-targeting, is-low-inflation-good-news, there-are-no-friedmans-today-except-maybe-friedman-himself
- Carola Binder on targeting-from-below
- Brad DeLong on john-plender-bewitched-by-mandarins-of-central-banking , afternoon-must-read-barry-eichengreen-secular-stagnation-long-view
- Menzie Chinn on global-economic-prospects-on-fiscal-policy-oil-prices-and-the-trade-slowdown
- Tony Yates on 0-5-annual-cpi-inflation-good-news thanks Mark
- Noah Smith on what-does-structural-mean , inflation-doesnt-hurt-so-much-does-it
- David Glasner on bitcoins-are-tanking-today
- Edward Lambert on ngdp-inflation-target
- Chris Dillow on finance-the-left
- Jim Rose on the-marvel-of-the-market-the-remarkable-foresight-of-young-adults-in-choosing-what-to-study
- Mike Konzal on what-happened-2013-two-clarifications-among-current-debates Thanks Mark
- Chris Dillow on murdochs-common-error
- Mumble on spare_us_the_eloquence
- Tim Harford on how-much-is-a-microlife-worth
- Amanda Potter on speech-in-france-is-not-so-free-as-section-18c-critics-would-have-it
- Noah Smith on nine-economics-mysteries-explained
- Peter Martin on climate-change-why-some-of-us-wont-believe-its-getting -hotter
- Mark Thoma on estimated-social-cost-of-climate-change-not-accurate
- John Timmer on new-economic-model-may-radically-boost-the-social-cost-of-carbon Thanks Mark
- Eureka alert on Correcting estimates of sea level rise
- Sandwichman on circular-social-cost-of-carbon-reference
- David Hone on the-answer-lies-after-2050-probably-not-before
- Real Climate on diagnosing-causes-of-sea-level-rise , a-new-sea-level-curve
- skeptical science on Just-when-did-humans-first-start-affecting-the-climate , antarctic-ice-sheet-sleeping-giant-beginning-to-stir , global-warming-made-2014-record-hot-year-animated-graphics
- Menzie Chinn on hottest-on-record
- hotwhopper on confirmed-2014-was-hottest-year-on-record , heat-addled-brains-and-competition
- The idiot tracker on for-whom-bell-tols-hot-emotion-denier-logic , gistemp-is-in-2014-is-hottest-year
- Steve from Brisbane on local-and-global-heat
- Brad Plumer on 2014-hottest-year
- epidemiology-biostatistics-competitive-complementary
- whats-misleading-phrase-statistical-significance-practical-significance
- stan-comes-through-again
- the-bracket Was that the Paul Davidson of Post-Keynesian fame
- loo-waic-time-series
- study-fails-replicate
- lewis-richardson-father-numerical-weather-prediction
- Kaiser Fung on trifacta-revisited-tackling-a-big-data-problem
- econometrics-vs-ad-hoc-empiricism
- Frances Dielbold on mostly-harmless-econometrics
- books-glorious-books , oh-so-happy , mastering-metrics
- Francess Woolley on satisfaction-does-not-buy-happiness
- brazil-s-closedness-trade
- assessing-progress-poorest-new-evidence
- how-measure-risky-sex
- oil-price-slump-seven-key-questions
- energy-subsidies-developing-countries
- shale-oil-and-gasoline-prices
- how-much-have-minimum-wage-increases-contributed-us-employment-slump
- quantitative-easing-eurozone-its-possible-without-fiscal-transfers
- global-carbon-taxation
Wednesday, 14 January 2015
Medicare again
When the government originally announced their changes I said THIS.
I would not change any of it. This government loves to annoy the crap out of the Electorate for very little gain. The links are essential reading
Steve From Brisbane also comments.
I would not change any of it. This government loves to annoy the crap out of the Electorate for very little gain. The links are essential reading
Steve From Brisbane also comments.
Tuesday, 13 January 2015
Blogs to read
It is the New Year. What blogs you should read. I had some spare time so here goes.
Australia
If you have others to add let me know
Australia
- John Quiggin is probably the first and one of the best. He is one os OZ's foremost public intellectuals
- Harry Clarke whom I cannot link beci=use of database problems is pretty good also. Big on enviornment issues
- Ricardian Ambivalence is first class despite absurdly thinking highly of John cochrane. too little articles in recent times.
- The Kouk is the mirror image of RA.
- Mumble is a must read on politics
- Club Troppo is also good to read. It has nick Gruen ,the nicest bloke in the blogsphere but also the thin skinned Ken Parish and Paul Fritjers. The RSS feed is a must read.
- Mark the Graph and Mark the Ballot are compulsory reading if only for his sidebars! Articles always useful.
- Antony Green. Compulsory reading for politics
- Kevin Bonham. Same as above. A must read
- M0nty. interesting but not updated a lot.
- The Piping Shrike. Shrewd analysis of OZ politics
- Andrew Elder same
- Steve from Brisbane. Always interesting on a variety of topics but conservative Steve! I don't think so.
- Greg Jericho. Always worth a read
- Peter Martin. An old journo mate from the markets.
- the Pollbludger see Mumble
- Gerry Jackson Great believer in Hayek and Classical economics. Actually does research unlike Katesy!
- Jim Rose another Hayekian but produces gems every so often
- DoverBeach fantastic if you like Catholic religiosity. Book reviews are superb
Economics
- Kruggers. Like or hate him he is always a great read
- Mark Thoma. Mark is a MUST read if only for his DAILY links.
- Econbrowser . The unlikely duo of James Hamilton and Menzie Chinn
- Brad De Long. Caustic tongue but is self deprecating and has great links as well.
- Calculated Risk. no better blog on US housing
- Simon Wren-Lewis is a must read if you like economics
- Nick Rowe plus others in Canada. Just like above. Frances Woolley is great.
- Vox wonk. Has everything and anything in short sharp articles
- Tim Harford I wish he wrote more often!
- Dianne Coyle quirky and plenty of book reviews
- Chris Dillow. An intelligent communist
- Noah Smith always interesting except on religion
- Carola Binder. Great read and hot and married!
- David Beckworth. A rare but wonderful read
- David Andalfatto. with a name like that he just has to be good.
- Econospeak. A whole bunch of people
- Antonio Fatas. wonderful on Europe
- Tony Yates. same
- Timothy Taylor same except on the US
- David Glasner A must read on monetary policy in history
- The Irish Economy A variety of authors look at Ireland ( duh!) and Europe from different viewpoints.
- Lord Keynes comes from a post-Keynesian perspective. attempts to de-bunk the Austrian school a lot.
Statistics/Econometrics
- Andrew Gelman simply the best
- Kaiser Fung he is good.
- Good Stats Bad Stats .when he writes it is always good value but he doesn't write enough!
- Genial Dave Giles fantastic on econometrics
Climate
- Understanding Climate risk write more articles Roger
- Brave New Climate always interesting from an OZ perspective
- Tamino always good to sort out the statistical messages
- Real Climate. a must read
- Rabett Run Loves a controversy
- Climate change national forum if only they produces more articles
- hotwhopper cheeky but interesting
- Skeptical science if only they could spell
If you have others to add let me know
Monday, 12 January 2015
Statistical significance V practical significance
Andrew Gelman has a great article on the above today at his blog which is HERE.
Okay you are too lazy to go look there.
Here it then.
Thanks a lot Andrew. This article is gold
"You’ve heard it a million times, the idea is that if you have an estimate of .003 (on some reasonable scale in which 1 is a meaningful effect size) and a standard error of .001 then, yes, the estimate is statistically significant but it’s not practically significant.
Okay you are too lazy to go look there.
Here it then.
Thanks a lot Andrew. This article is gold
"You’ve heard it a million times, the idea is that if you have an estimate of .003 (on some reasonable scale in which 1 is a meaningful effect size) and a standard error of .001 then, yes, the estimate is statistically significant but it’s not practically significant.
And, indeed, sometimes this sort of thing comes up (and, irritatingly, such studies get publicity in part because of their huge sample size, which seems a bit unfair in that they need the huge sample size in order to detect anything at all), but not so often.
What is much more common are small studies where estimated effects are statistically significant but the estimates are unrealistically huge (remember, the statistical significance filter).
We’ve spend a lot of space on this blog recently on studies where the noise overwhelms the signal, where any comparisons in the data, statistically significant or not, are essentially meaningless.
But today (actually, in the future, whenever this post appears; I’m actually writing it on 22 Nov), I’d like to focus on a more interesting example where an interesting study was performed on an important topic, the estimate was statistically significant, but I think the estimate is biased upward, for the usual reason of the statistical significance filter.
It’s the story of an early childhood intervention on children that, based on a randomized experiment, was claimed by a bunch of economists to have increased their earnings (as young-adults, 20 years later) by 25% or 42%. Here’s what I wrote:
From the press release: “This study adds to the body of evidence, including Head Start and the Perry Preschool programs carried out from 1962-1967 in the U.S., demonstrating long-term economic gains from investments in early childhood development.” But, as I wrote on an earlierpost on the topic, there is some skepticism about those earlier claims.And this:From the published article: “A substantial literature shows that U.S. early childhood interventions have important long-term economic benefits.”From the press release: “Results from the Jamaica study show substantially greater effects on earnings than similar programs in wealthier countries. Gertler said this suggests that early childhood interventions can create a substantial impact on a child’s future economic success in poor countries.”I don’t get it. On one hand they say they already knew that early childhood interventions have big effects in the U.S. On the other hand they say their new result shows “substantially greater effects on earnings.” I can believe that their point estimate of 25% is substantially higher than point estimates from other studies, or maybe that other studies showed big economic benefits but not big gains on earnings? In any case I can only assume that there’s a lot of uncertainty in this estimated difference.
Here’s the point
The problem with the usual interpretation of this study is not that it’s statistically significant but not practical significant. We’re not talking about an estimate of .003 with a standard error of .001. No, things are much different. The effect is statistically significant and huge—indeed, small sample and high variation ensure that, if the estimate is statistically significant, it will have to be huge. But I don’t believe that huge estimate (why should I? It’s biased, it’s the product of a selection effect, the statistical significance filter).
And all this “statistically significant but not practically significant” talk can completely lead us astray, by leading us to be wary of very small estimates, while what we should really be suspicious of, is very large estimates! "
Go to his blog and read the comments as well lazybones!
This is why I highlight his blog on my sidebar!
This is why I highlight his blog on my sidebar!
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