Around the Traps 29/6/18

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,OyOy

• Bruce Mountain on if-you-need-a-phd-to-read-your-power-bill-buying-wisely-is-all-but-impossible
• Croaking Cassandra on inflation-bonds-and-breakevens, some-more-real-exchange-rates, foreign-influence-and-the-wellington-establishment, the-prc-and-new-zealand-an-australian-perspective
• Mark the Ballot on poll-aggregation-update
• Greg Jericho on dont-ask-who-benefits-from-tax-cuts-do-ask-who-will-pay-for-them ,its-still-public-infrastructure-projects-keeping-the-economy-afloat
• Mathew Stocks and Andrew Baker on new-coal-doesnt-stack-up-just-look-at-queenslands-renewable-energy-numbers
• Peter Whiteford on gets-pays-incomes-taxes-benefits-work-australians
• Ross Gittins on things-ive-learnt-in-40-years-as-an-economics-editor
• Graham Meadows et al on three-charts-on-why-rates-of-mental-illness-arent-going-down-despite-higher-spending
• Louise Moina Koiff on plastic-free-campaigns-dont-have-to-shock-or-shame-shoppers-are-already-on-board
• Michael West on retirement-villages-how-grandma-and-grandpa-become-corporate-financiers Thanks Peter Whiteford
• Kevin Bonham on is-seat-polling-utterly-useless
• Adam Ni on huawei-is-a-test-case-for-australia-in-balancing-the-risks-and-rewards-of-chinese-tech
• Nick Gruen on patricia-edgar-the-circus-that-has-been-government-policy-on-the-abc-for-forty-years
• Clinton Fernandez on lawyer-and-witness-face-charges-under-spy-laws-raising-questions-of-openness-and-accountability

Northern America

• Calculated Risk on a-few-comments-on-may-new-home-sales, real-house-prices-and-price-to-rent-ratio-in-april
• the conversable economist on the-medical-bankruptcies-debate, us-homeownership-patterns
• Nick Rowe on hydraulic-monetarism
• Zack Beachamp on sarah-sanders-red-hen-restaurant-civility
• Robert Waldmann on banging-drum
• Uneasy Money on the-monumental-dishonesty-and-appalling-bad-faith-of-chief-justice-robertss-decision
• Brad Setser on right-and-wrong-ways-adjust-us-china-trade-balance Thanks Mark
• regulatory review on coglianese-trump-child-separations Thanks Mark

Europe

• Mainly Macro on when-two-mass-movements-clash, labour-the-party-of-business
• long and variable on uks-mpc-vote-does-going-from-7-2-to-6-3-mean-a-hike-is-coming-sooner-than-we-thought, 2-wasnt-an-arbitrary-number-neel
• Barkley Rosser on the-mezzogiorno-problem-revisited

Asia

• Marcus Bell and Geoffrey Fattig on exit-strategy-will-us-troops-leave-south-korea
• Alexander Harper on make-or-break-uae-yemen

Wonk

• Kruggers on brexit-versus-trumpit-wonkish Thanks Mark
• Robert Shiller on big-war-to-raise-the-corporate-income-tax Thanks Mark
• Nick Gruen on a-lucky-boy-from-a-golden-age-of-economics
• Brad Setser on what-would-happen-if-china-started-selling-its-treasury-portfolio Thanks Mark
• Promarket on marketplace-ideas-politically-hijacked Thanks Mark
• Menzie Chinn on term-of-the-day-effective-rate-of-protection
• Daniel Walden on dismantling-the-west Thanks Brad
• Cecchetti and Schoenholtz on sudden-stops-a-primer-on-balance-of-payments-crises
• regulatory review on parker-hyping-the-cost-of-regulation
• Nick Gruen on deep-strategisation-the-schlock-of-the-new
• Kruggers on uses-and-abuses-of-economic-formalism-wonkish-and-self-referential Thanks Mark
• microeconomic insights on career-cost-children-career-fertility-trade-offs Thanks Mark
• stumbling and mumbling on centrists-against-freedom Thanks Mark

General

• Understanding society on shakespeare-on-tyranny
• Kyla McFarlane on photos-go-down-history

Climate

• Peter Sinclair on if-you-ignore-the-recent-warming-theres-been-no-warming-deniers-go-full-arm-wave-on-hansens-1988-predictions
• Skeptical Science on  30 years later and deniers are still lying about hansens amazing global warning predictions
• Open Mind on global-warming-and-tick-borne-diseases-in-maine
• Olivia Rosane on could-proposed-mission-statement-changes-shake-noaa-s-climate-focus
• Skeptical Science on what happened last time it was as hot as it is gong to be this century

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• trying-make-sense-can-see-makes-no-sense-stuck-middle
• regression-mean-continues-confuse-people-lead-errors-published-research
• role-statistics-machine-learning-world
• gonna-discussion-deborah-mayos-new-book
• psychological-science-accelerator-probably-good-idea-im-still-skeptical
• yes-work-evaluating-variational-inference
• math-science-background-wants-transition-social-science-get-statistics-degree-social-science-get-graduate-degree-social-science
• role-professional-singer-ham
• John Cook on objectives-and-constraints
• Kaiser Fung on poll-fodder-inducing-xyopia-in-elevators
• statschat on who-should-have-a-home, progressive-or-regressive-fuel-taxes

Denial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• Marc Bellamare on elastcities and the inverse hyperbolic sine transformation
• No Hesitations on peter-christoffersen-and-density

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• the-class-window
• Tim Harford on six-unconventional-introductions-to-economics
• stumbling and mumbling on the-infinite-desire-for-growth-a-review

Vox wonk

• what-do-missing-payments-factors-production
• what-imperial-preference-can-teach-us-about-post-brexit-trade-deals
• gender-informal-employment-and-trade-liberalisation-mexico
• monies-old-and-new-through-lenses-modern-accounting
• global-financial-cycles-and-risk-premiums
• subsidised-childcare-maternal-labour-supply-and-children-s-outcomes
• banking-masses-2018-edition
• race-and-economic-opportunity-united-states
• global-market-power-and-its-macroeconomic-implications
• economics-immigration-amnesties
• there-are-more-foreign-firms-we-think

The US Supreme Court woeful decision.

I outsource an opinion on the Supreme courts on Muslims to David Glasner who relies equally on Noah Feldman.
What can be said. Roberts tangles himself on the Korematsu decision.
If only Republicans had followed the constitution and had allowed Obama to nominate a supreme court judge as he was entitled to.

The decision itself is an absolute disgrace for the reasons outlined and in line with two other disgraceful decisions   namely  the Dred Scott and the Korematsu decisions.

I should have added this decision shows hoe political the US Supreme court really is.

We simply were not good enough

I have to admit I did not think we would win last night. Yet again 'Aussie' Bert was cautious in selecting his team.

As with Denmark we had to win but his tactics seem to be again cautious instead of attack. Avoiding a goal is much easier if you are attacking then if you are absorbing pressure.

Juric for example is a poor mans Viduka , He keeps the ball until his team mates are there to pass to. He is not the man if your tactics are a fast counter-attack.This showed up in the way he played. He seemed confused on what his actual role was.  I would have gone to McClaren ( how we missed him against Denmark. He tires out defenders as they have to stop and start a lot and match his pace. Naboutt for example simply harasses defenders.
Azarni is our X factor. Again he cause defenders to tire quickly because of the effort to contain him. We needs goals early yet he only came on as a substitute.
Irvine has a high work rate buzzing around the field, harassing midfielders for the ball and giving it to Mooy or Rogic. He is not a substitute. He either plays or he doesn't.
Rogic was substituted again as with the Denmark match yet he is one of the few players who can score a goal out of nothing.

We had most of the ball against Peru yet could not contain the pressure into goals. We did the same against Denmark. We only scored TWO goals and they were penalties. This is simply not good enough at international level.

It did not help Ange resigned before the World Cup. 'Aussie' Bert simply did not have enough time with the team.

Going forward Graham Arnold needs to find a centre back to replace Milligan, A midfielder to replace Jedinak, both Kruse and Leckie wil be too old at the next world cup.

There are some replacements on the horizon.

Damn, Damn , Damn

I should add SBS should always have the world cup if only for Lucy Zelic even beating the late Les Murray in her pronunciation of names however we need a decent commentator. David Basheer does not cut the mustard.  Optus used pommy commentators and they were great. Why not simply use them and save money. Australia has only one decent commentator and that is Simon Hill and he is a pom. Say no more

Hyping the Cost of Regulation

That is the title of a must read  article by Richard Parker.
Yes I am looking at you Soony!
It is vitally important to know how accurate the costs of regulation are ( as well as the benefits) before embarking on any policy of reducing regulation.

No-one will be surprised that Trump was outlining costs of regulation that were highly dubious.
Moreover having a policy that takes no account of benefits takes moronic policy to new heights.

Aussie Bert, plusses and minuses

'Aussie' Bert is a very good coach.
We used to leak goals under Anger. We no longer do that. Aaron Mooy and Trent Sainsbury are showing that same form for Australia they do for their clubs.

Unfortunately Aussie Bert has not had enough time with the Socceroos.
This showed in the game against France. He selected Tom Rogic. He was never going to get the space and time with the ball against France. He does not have the defensive technique to help out Mooy and Jedinek in the mid field either. B No surprise they were knackered in the last 10 minutes, Irvine should have played!
Against Denmark he selected both Naboutt and Kruse. Naboutt is not a striker and was never in a position to score in the ever number of crosses that occurred.
Kruse should never been selected, We had to win. Arzani was a much better bet. He would not have missed the shots that Kruse had. His workrate would have been higher and he is the X factor we need.
Also when Naboutt was injured Cahill should have come on. With crosses coming all the time he would have scored.

I do not think he will pick the right side against Peru where we must win by 2 goals.

There is no point in saying we should have 4 points now. We have only 1 point and that is down to Aussie Bert.

We should end in saying if Ange was still coach we would not have any points!

Around the Traps 22/6/18

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Louise Rimmer and Gary Mortimer on honey-i-shrunk-the-store-why-your-local-supermarket-is-getting-smaller
• Croaking Cassandra on a-puzzling-government-economic-target ,avoiding-upset-beijing-the-wellington-establishment, another-champion-of-regional-development-policy, putting-a-price-on-the-hair-shirt, an-old-familiar-still-depressing-chart,exports-of-services-a-dismal-picture
• Greg Jericho on with-unemployment-low-wages-will-start-growing-wont-they, its-clear-who-really-benefits-from-tax-cuts-and-its-not-true-blue-battlers
• The Kouk on the-remarkably-simple-case-for-an-rba-rate-cut
• Dennis Muller on constant-attacks-on-the-abc-will-come-back-to-haunt-the-coalition-government
• Matt McDonald on lowy-institute-poll-shows-australians-support-for-climate-action-at-its-highest-level-in-a-decade
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-we-are-witnessing-a-slowly-deflating-property-bubble-for-now
• John Quiggin on voters-understand-better-than-commentators-the-trickery-of-state-budgets

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-protectionism-is-nothing-new-for-republicans, term-spreads-in-2018-an-annotated-history
• Macro Musings on the-peoples-fed-chair, the-treasury-yield-curve-blues
• Amerlai Thomson-Deveaux and Julia Wolfe on the-russia-investigation-isnt-less-popular-its-just-more-polarizing
• Calculated risk on comments-on-may-housing-starts, a-few-comments-on-may-existing-home-sales
• Dylan Mathews on donald-trump-cruelty
• Drumil Mehta on separating-families-at-the-border-is-really-unpopular
• Sandwichman on the-lump-that-begot-trump
• Brad De Long on paul-krugman-attempts-to-summarize-the-state-of-play-on-the-slack-and-wages-puzzle-paul-krugman-opinion-monopsony, unemployment-and-inflation-once-again
• Lane Kenworthy on how-the-safety-net-can-survive-trump Thanks Mark
• Economic Principals on the referee Thanks Mark
• Kruggers on thinking-about-a-trade-war-very-wonkish Thanks Mark
• John Edwards on us-china-trade-joke-over
• Uneasy Money on whos-afraid-of-a-flattening-yield-curve

Europe

• Marcus Colla on ever-widening-atlantic
• Mainly Macro on the-bankruptcy-of-centre-right-brexit-edition ,how-broadcasters-should-handle-the-prime-minister-lying, a-new-mandate-for-monetary-policy
• long and variable on social-care-funding-inheritance-tax-and-hypothecation
• Coppolla comment on a-very-british-disease
• Tim Harford on breadbrexitthirdoption

Asia

• Lauren Richardson on should-shinzo-abe-happen-meet-kim-jong-un
• Uri Friedman on trump-kim-korea-success

Wonk

• Tim Harford on breadbrexitthirdoption
• the conversable economist on thaler-on-evolution-of-behavioral-economics, the-dramatic-expansion-of-corporate-bonds
• Brad Setser on emerging-markets-under-pressure Thanks Mark
• Harold James on weimar-republic-lessons-for-today Thanks Brad

General

• Cassandra Legacy on the-impossible-battle-against-fake-news
• Melissa De Zwart on its-not-clear-where-trumps-space-force-fits-within-international-agreement-on-peaceful-use-of-space
• Nick Gruen on a-lucky-boy-from-a-golden-age-of-economics

Climate

• Ruth Gamble on china-and-indias-border-dispute-is-a-slow-moving-environmental-disaster
• Open Mind on sea-ice-the-truth-the-bad-and-the-ugl,global-warming-when-judith-curry-makes-a-claim-check-for-yourself, global-warming-told-you-so
• Stoat on why-carbon-pricing-isnt-working
• hotwhopper on 2018-has-fourth-hottest-may-on-record
• Moyhu on giss-may-global-down-003-april, hansens-1988-predictions-30-year
• and Then Theres Physics on no-hansen-wasnt-wrong

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• chasing-noise-industrial-b-testing-low-hanging-fruit-picked
• bayesians-are-frequentists
• power-analysis-nih-style-statistical-practice-whats-implicit-model
• role-qualitative-methods-addressing-issues-replicability-reproducibility-rigor
• quest-beauty-lead-science-astray
• answering-question-predictors-important-going-beyond-p-value-thresholding-ranking
• i-am-the-supercargo
• ways-knowing-computer-science-statistics
• junkcharts on two-thousand-five-hundred-ways-to-say-the-same-thing

Genial Dave Giles(econometrics)

• shout-out-for-marc-bellemare
• Marc Bellamare on Copenhagen course lecture 4

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• pop-science-and-natural-philosophy
• quantum-economics-2
• intellectual-property-as-theft
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading
• Three Toed Sloth on books-to-read-while-the-algae-grow-in-your-fur-december-2016

Vox wonk

• consumption-baskets-and-distributional-consequences-monetary-policy
• great-migration-and-immigrant-assimilation
• firm-innovation-and-productivity
• rise-dollar-and-fall-euro-global-asset-trade
• practical-macroeconomic-policy-evaluation
• growing-non-tariff-and-overall-protection
• impact-non-tariff-barriers-eu-goods-trade-after-brexit
• economic-preferences-and-inequality-new-dataset
• euro-area-reform-cannot-ignore-monetary-realm
• alongside-rising-top-incomes-level-living-america-s-poorest-has-fallen
• european-bank-mergers-domestic-and-cross-border
• what-if-approach-assessing-proposals-euro-area-reform

Income tax 'cuts' almost always increase the structural deficit.

Income tax 'cuts' almost always increase the structural deficit.This is because the commensurate cut in spending is never done.
Reagan and Bush and now Trump have done this in the USA. Howard did this in Australia ) It should be remembered the ALP did not criticise this. Indeed they implemented some of the cuts.
HERE is a good article about what a structural deficit is and what it means. HERE is my modest article on it. HERE is a good article about a person who does not have a clue about the subject!

If a Government cuts taxes but not spending it means revenue will not rise as it should.For a government to do this in the context of budget repair it is the height of fiscal irresponsibility. More so if you put a cap on revenue as a % of GDP.

Me thinks if the ALP puts budget repair top of the pile and not tax cuts they will romp in.

Scott Morrison caught out again.

Liberals as slow  learners.
when they originally won office Abbott and hockey tries the cupboard is bare argument. Only problem was PEFO. It showed their argument was cobblers. It seemed  neither understood fully what the charter of Budget Honesty really means, Strange they were ministers when the legislation was brought in.

Now Scott Morrison has been caught out again on PBO costings. Neither his office nor even Morrison himself seem to understand that the PBO can cost any policy as well as Treasury. Trying to 'fiddle' with their costings is stupid.

Introducing the PBO was the best thing Wayne Swan ever did besides ensuring we did not get a recession from the GFC.
Anyone in Parliament has access to it thus Oppostions now have no excuse for poor costings. the ALP are using it very well.

Australia V France

So near yet so far away.

We deserved a draw yet were denied. in this family of referees we were absolutely perplexed by the VAR decision. When the FIFA technical committee decided to give reasons why the decision was correct it got worse. Risdon got the the ball yet it was a trip?
I maybe a tad too cynical but if the incident happened at the other end then I very much doubt any decision to review the decision would have been made!

'Aussie' Bert made one bad decision. Rogic should not have played. He was never going to get the space to do any attacking and his defending is always on the light side. Irvine would have been a better selection and would have let both Jedinek and Local Carlo boy Mooy to less defending and thus more energy in the last 10 minutes.

I also did not understand putting on Juric.

Some might say we did not look like scoring. Well neither did France.
Sainsbury and Mooy were magnificent. But there was not a bad player on the filed.

I am confident we can beat both Denmark and Peru.

I suspect Mooy is buggered after this game so I would pick McClaren up front for his pace and striking ability, Azhari in stead of Kruse, Irvine instead of Mooy.

Go you good things.

Whoopsy,
I should have added Aussie Bert and his crew performed wonders in the defence. We would have leaked a number of goals against France under Ange, not under Aussie Bert.

Around the Traps 15/6/18

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on playing-distraction-on-the-prc , no-new-transparency-at-the-orr-reserve-bank , gift-receiving-at-the-reserve-bank , relative-poverty-old-and-young, a-modestly-indebted-advanced-economy, economic-coercion-prc-style
• Mark the Ballot on poll-update
• The Kouk on why-concern-is-mounting-for-australia-s-economic-outlook
• Peter Minard on why-do-brumbies-evoke-such-passion-its-all-down-to-the-high-countrys-cultural-myth-makers
• Melnie Davern et al on rail-access-improves-liveability-but-all-regional-centres-are-not-equal
• Adam McHugh on are-solar-panels-a-middle-class-purchase-this-survey-says-yes
• Andrew Dowse on the-5g-network-threatens-to-overcrowd-the-airwaves-putting-weather-radar-at-risk
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-poor-wage-growth-means-interest-rates-could-be-low-for-a-long-time

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on trade-deficit-rising , guest-contribution-red-and-blue-one-country-or-two
• Calculated Risk on key-measures-show-inflation-increased-yoy-in-may
• Kruggers on debacle-in-quebec Thanks Mark
• Robert Frank on business/would-a-single-payer-system-require-painful-sacrifices-from-doctors Thanks Mark
• the conversable economist on us-intergenerational-mobility
• Noah Smith on a-tight-u-s-job-market-should-deliver-bigger-raises
• economic principals on homer stirs  Thanks Mark
• Brad Setser on o-canada Thanks Mark
• Noah Smith on unions-did-great-things-for-the-american-working-class
• Perry Bacon on lets-talk-about-identity-and-politics , the-500-page-inspector-generals-report-in-900-words
• David Ritchie on /us-and-west-friends

Europe

• Mainly Macro on amendment-wars-and-corbyn-wars , parliament-has-to-start-directing-the-brexit-negotiations, how-uk-deficit-hysteria-began
• Eric Lonergan on how-europe-works

Asia

• Brad De Long on how-the-west-should-judge-a-rising-china
• Benjamin Habib on us-north-korea-summit-agreement-is-most-revealing-for-what-it-leaves-out
• Daniel Flitton on trump-kim-summit-history-happens
• Sam Roggeveen on trump-kim-summit-negotiating-weakness
• Anthony Bubalo on understanding-what-important
• Danieele Chubb and Andrew Yeo on human-rights-missing-in-trump%E2%80%93kim-summit
• Merridden Varrall on trump-kim-summit-china-smiles
• Morris Jones on taking-stand-north-korean-missile-engine-tests

Wonk

• Amitrajeet Batabayal on rules-based-trade-made-the-world-rich-trumps-policies-may-make-it-poorer
• Tim Harford on why-its-important-to-gather-the-evidence-but-easy-to-forget-it-even-then
• Sandwichman on the-wages-lump-doctrine-still-dogma-after-all-these-years
• stumbling and mumbling on measuring-competition
• Oliver Roeder on after-tuesdays-summit-trump-and-north-korea-will-be-playing-a-whole-new-game
• Promarket on direct-democracy-reduce-regulatory-capture , wages-high-earning-sectors-always-reflect-skills  Thanks Mark
• growth economics on Leisure Thanks Mark
• Macro Musings on a-tale-of-three-nominal-gdp-growth-paths ,optimal-monetary-policy-for-masses
• all about finance on financial-repression-and-bank-lending-evidence-natural-experiment-emerging-market Thanks Mark
• Mike Callaghan on g7-most-honest-summit-ever
• the conversable economist on bangladesh-reaches-middle-income-status, g-7-g7-g20, autonomous-vehicles-heres-one-crystal-ball
• Nick Rowe on the-parable-of-the-fruit-trees

General

• Joseph Franklin on why-predicting-suicide-is-a-difficult-and-complex-challenge
• Variable Variability on peer-review-feedback-importance-assesment
• Roy Hay on fixed-matches-and-prisoners-of-conscience-a-history-of-politics-intruding-on-football

Climate

• arctic sea ice on piomas-june-2018
• Moyhu on may-global-surface-templs-down-0038-from-april
• open mind on climate-deniers-sinking-fast , top-10-tricks-climate-deniers-dont-want-you-to-know-3-will-shock-you
• Real Climate on will-climate-change-bring-benefits-from-reduced-cold-related-mortality-insights-from-the-latest-epidemiological-research
• Bart Verheggen on climate-change-as-a-matter-of-risk-management-requires-different-choices-in-communication
• and Then Theres Physics on low-probability-high-impact-outcomes
• Dave Frame et al on why-methane-should-be-treated-differently-compared-to-long-lived-greenhouse-gases
• Luke Bennetts on ocean-waves-and-lack-of-floating-ice-can-trigger-antarctic-ice-shelves-to-disintegrate
• Steve Rintoul and Stephen Chown on antarctica-has-lost-3-trillion-tonnes-of-ice-in-25-years-time-is-running-out-for-the-frozen-continent
• Cassandras Legacy on climate-change-as-game-of-russian-roulette
• Peter Sinclair on why-antarcticas-melt-is-important

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• wolfram-markdown-also-called-computational-essay
• necessity-difficulty-admitting-failure-research-clinical-practice
• putting-together-list-big-high-profile-goals-proved-far-challenging-people-anticipated-circa-1970
• style-argument-can-effective-intellectual-backwater-fail-big-leagues-maybe-good-thing-different-research-communities
• global-shifts-phenological-synchrony-species-interactions-recent-decades
• can-somebody-please-untangle-one-us-centrists-less-supportive-democracy-compared-political-extremists
• women-want-children-end
• quasi-retracted-study-mediterranean-diet
• one-good-one-bad-response-statistics-diversity-problem
• Marc Bellamare on Copenhagen course lecture 3
• No Hesitations on neural-nets-for-volatility-dynamics
• Kaiser Fung on dead-man-tells-no-tales-but-dead-statistician-had-the-story-down
• statschats on aa-study-causes-drug-headlines

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• freakometrics on discrete or continous modelling, quantile regression

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• meta-policy
• if-it-isnt-creative-you-dont-have-much-of-an-economy
• Brad De Long on richard-baldwin-2016-_the-great-convergence-information-technology-and-the-new-globalization_-reviewed-for-_nature
• Steve on the-best-biographies-of-richard-nixon Thanks Jim Rose
• Three Toed Sloth on books-to-read-while-the-algae-grow-in-your-fur-january-2017-2

vox wonk

• ai-and-paperclip-problem
• how-firms-shape-export-performance
• demographics-and-long-run-growth
• some-ways-introduce-modern-debt-jubilee
• digitalisation-money-and-future-monetary-policy
• gay-glass-ceilings-sexual-orientation-and-workplace-authority-uk
• macroprudential-tools-capital-controls-and-trilemma
• global-debt-and-equilibrium-interest-rates
• cryptocurrencies-are-lousy-investments
• beyond-risk-sharing-and-risk-reduction
• why-employment-rates-us-have-lagged-other-countries

Trump and Kim meet

Well they both have met.
We know for example Trump gets on with the dictator better than the elected leader of Canada, Says a lot really.
We again find out Trump is hopeless with alliances. He knows the costs of everything but the value of nothing.
He again does something which he does not tell South Korea about.

I tend to agree with Benjamin Habib. as Walter Mondale might say wheres the beef? We might have gotten a definition of what denuclearisation means!

added bonus Daniel Flitton

I forgot two things.  Why the 1994 deal failed.

Why would the most stringent inspections succeed in North Korea when they were clearly succeeding in Iran but Trump broke the deal.

The Socceroos and Russia

I must be honest. I am not optimistic about our game with France on Saturday night.

First the good news.
History shows France is a slow starter, If you must play them then the first game is the best.
It also shows south American teams do not play well in Europe.
We also know Denmark have injury problems in their defence and the replacements are slow ( which is why McClaren is still in the squad.

Now for realism.
We have played four games under 'Aussie' Bert. We have only played well once.
both Milligan and Risdon look out of their depth in their respective positions.
Abbout is fast, fit and will ling upfront but lacks touch.
Mooy is not giving any killer passes to Leckie or anyone else.
It appears Milo is on the outer and he was a tower of strength against Honduras. He never lost a tackle or header. He was inspiring.
Rogic and Mooy appear not to be able to play together, They have defensive limitations.

My thoughts.

• Move Rogic to Striker. He does have one hellva strike on him 
• Move Milo to centreback back
• Pick Arzani ahead of Kruse. Kruse has not been the same player since he was badly injured.
• Pray!!!

I always live in hope however

Around the Traps 8/6/18

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on a-decade-of-real-house-prices, sir-william-and-the-rockstar-economy, another-orr-interview, dont-just-avoid-the-politically-awkward-issues, the-government-consults-on-slashing-productivity-growth, electioneering-1954-style
• Sharon Brennan-Olsen on why-hip-fractures-in-the-elderly-are-often-a-death-sentence
• Tony Walker on australia-needs-to-reset-the-relationship-with-china-and-stay-cool
• Robert McLaughlan on new-zealands-productivity-commission-charts-course-to-low-emission-future
• Ben Phillips and Mathew Gray on the-coalitions-income-tax-cuts-will-help-the-rich-more-but-in-a-decade-everyone-pays-more-anyway
• Ross Gittins on turnbull-changes-tune-for-lower-taxes-election, how-we-could-revive-faith-in-democracy , sorry-scott-its-not-clear-economy-now-has-liftoff
• Nick Gruen onthe-unbearable-thinness-of-modern-politics
• Tomas Fitzgerald on how-changes-to-uk-law-may-provide-more-dual-citizenship-drama
• Giles Parkinson on south-australia-rides-renewables-boom-to-become-electricity-exporter
• Peter Whiteford on is-australias-tax-and-welfare-system-too-progressive Thanks Steve from Brisbane
• The Kouk on australia-s-opponents-of-the-minimum-wage-increase-ignore-this-truth-higher-pay-means-more-people-working, why-concern-is-mounting-for-australia-s-economic-outlook
• Greg Jericho on growth-with-a-grain-of-salt-its-the-same-old-story-as-households-miss-out
• Don Driscoll et al on passing-the-brumby-bill-is-a-backward-step-for-environmental-protection-in-australia
• Chris Salisbury on twenty-years-on-one-nation-is-still-chaotic-controversial-and-influential
• Australian Parliamentary Library on The-Labour-Force-Surve
• Andrew King et al onis-australias-current-drought-caused-by-climate-change-its-complicated

Northern America

• newdeal democrat on may-jobs-report-excellent-news-on-unemployment-underemployment-and-wages
• calculated risk on public-and-private-sector-payroll-jobs-during-presidential-terms
• David Mislin on why-the-supreme-courts-gay-wedding-cake-ruling-wont-resolve-religious-freedom-issues
• Andrew Prokop on trump-mueller-news-pardon-letter-russia-tweets
• Rebecca Roiphe on can-the-rule-of-law-survive-trump
• the conversable economist on snapshots-of-salubrious-us-labor-market
• Tom Chodor on tariffs-us-rebuffed
• Zack Beauchamp on trump-spygate-fox-twitter
• Joseph Gagnon on realtime-economic-issues-watch/still-no-inflation-puzzle  Thanks Mark
• Jason Furman and Peter Orszag on slower-productivity-and-higher-inequality-are-they-related Thanks Mark
• Larry Summers on donald-trumps-trade-policy-violates-every-rule-of-strategy Thanks Mark
• Tim Duy on the-fed-s-key-interest-rate-is-getting-close-to-neutral, fed-could-get-more-aggressive Thanks Mark
• Jodi Beggs on an-update-on-ben-bernankes-helicopter Thanks Mark
• Kruggers on conservative-free-speech Thanks Mark
• Anna Stanbury and Larry Summers on productivity-and-pay-link-broken Thanks Markl
• David Wessell onrethinking-the-feds-2-percent-inflation-target

Europe

• Mainly Macro on a-euro-tragedy, idee-fixe
• the conversable economist on sweden-heads-toward-cash-free-economy
• stumbling and mumbling on why-the-mpc-needs-experts
• Cecchetti and Scheonholtz on italeave-mother-of-all-financial-crises Thanks Mark

Asia

• Uri Friedman on trump-and-kim-will-talk-after-allbut-about-what
• Kim Ghatton on saudi-arabia-nationalism-driving-ban-salman
• Adam Ni on despite-strong-words-the-us-has-few-options-left-to-reverse-chinas-gains-in-the-south-china-sea
• Robert E Kelly on north-korea-beyond-all-or-nothing-ultimatum
• Charlie Lyon Jones and Merriden Varrall on name-shame-china-trouble-taiwan
• Brad Setser on how-durable-chinas-rebalancing Thanks Mark

Wonk

• Tim Harford on cheap-innovations-are-often-better-than-magical-ones
• Roger Farmer on taming-the-lion, lend-me-your-ears-friedman-and-the-role-of-financial-policy
• Stephen Grenville on when-is-monetary-policy-neutral
• Tyler Cowen on blockchains-opportunity-commons
• the conversable economist on the-shifting-connections-from-education-to-job-skills , whats-value-of-qaly
• Adam Triggs on the-worlds-economic-crisis-fighting-mechanisms-are-dangerously-inadequate
• Uneasy Money on keynes-and-the-fisher-equation
• Kenneth Rogoff on will-emerging-markets-trigger-global-debt-crisis Thanks Mark
• Promarket on monopoly-looks-like-italian-tobacco-sector-late-19th-century  Thanks Mark
• Brad Setser on trade-deals-or-macroeconomic-shocks Thanks Mark
• Bank Underground on should-peer-to-peer-lenders-exist-in-theory Thanks Mark
• Nick Gruen on central-banking-for-all-meanwhile-in-the-wider-world

General

• the conversable economist on the-not-so-triumphant-return-of-the-marshmellow-yest
• Frances Woolley on a-gnomic-theory-of-higher-education
• Kate Burridge and Catherine McBride on haitch-or-aitch-how-a-humble-letter-was-held-hostage-by-historical-haughtiness

Climate

• David Appell on when-global-warming-touches-home
• Open Mind on sea-level-rise-denial-by-bullshit
• Moyhu on may-ncepncar-global-surface-anomaly-down-0.09-from-april
• and Then Theres Physics on the-scicomm-merry-go-round ,science-and-skepticism ,airtime-for-policy-experts
• Peter Sinclair on could-climate-change-create-more-powerful-hurricanes
• David Roberts on climate-change-global-warming-models-risks

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• link-science-hype-not-always
• weakness-bayesian-data-analysis-book-dont-lot-examples-informative-priors
• against-screening
• nooooooooooooooooo-dentists-named-dennis-still-appearing
• peeriodicals-new-system-virtual-journals
• ambiguities-supposed-non-replication-ego-depletion
• comments-limitations-bayesian-leave-one-cross-validation-model-selection
• forking-paths-come-choices-data-processing-also-choices-analysis
• average-predictive-comparisons-else-equal-fallacy
• John Cook on central-limit-theorem-and-runge
• human-life-unlimited-short
• choose-data-visualization-best-serves-audience
• oxycontin-purdue-pharma-sacker-family-fda
• Simply Statistics on trustworthy-data-analysis
• Aki Vahtari on comments-on-limitations-of-bayesian-leave-one-out-cross-validation-for-model-selection
• Xian on maximal-spacing-around-order-statistics

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• suggested-reading-for-june
• the-series-of-unsurprising-results-in-economics-(sure)
• freakometrics on classification from stratch  classification 5/8 classification 7/8
• Marc Bellamare on causality and copenhagen course
• No Hesitations on machines-learning-finance

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on stochastically-best-book-read-country
• Brad De Long on talk-four-books-to-help-you-understand-president-donald-trump
• Three toed sloth on books-to-read-while-the-algae-grow-in-your-fur

Vox wonk

• social-media-sentiment-and-public-opinions
• cultural-alignment-can-make-bedfellows-out-autocracy-and-literacy
• wellbeing-inequality-retrospect
• wage-premium-exporting-plants-japan
• effect-population-ageing-pensions
• insurers-asset-managers-and-systemic-risk
• ethnic-networks-and-immigrants-employment-and-human-capital-decisions
• turnaround-portuguese-economy
• concentration-us-labour-markets
• retirement-consumption-puzzle
• universal-childcare-family-background-and-school-readiness
• inflation-forecasting-emerging-market-economies
• role-elites-development-denmark
• imperfect-substitution-and-development-accounting

A few comments on Australian politics

By-elections
We had recently Reach-Tel polls both nationally and on two by-election seats.
A few things to note. polls on by-elections are quite unreliable. As a resident of Bennelong I know this only too well.
We can add to that by asking why the two seat polls are so different to the national poll particularly since both are marginal seats.

Barnaby
I do wish Joyce would leave politics and get a job with Hancock. He is insufferably embarrassing these days. For  such a 'wonderful' retail politician and she being a PR guru they both stuff up every time when they front cameras or give an interview.

One Nation

I talked before about Pauline Hanson. doesn't she look old and haggard these days!  I am afraid implosion will always occur in One Nation as it is essentially a cult built on Hanson. When people are elected and realise she is not very smart ( euphemism) and has a Svengali behind her there is always a dispute. What makes this worse is that she demands loyalty and gives none herself.

South Australia a net electricity exporter?

Surely this cannot be true. south Australia is now an electricity exporter.

Yep it is even though plenty of 'conservative' commentators said blackouts would be a way of life given how much renewables is a large part of electricity generation in south Australia.  The Tesla battery has a competitive advantage when it comes to dispatchable power.

No wonder AGL is planning on a battery at their Liddel site when the power station is no more.

Sydney Radio

I thought I would get away from the serious today.

I will concentrate on AM radio as the only FM radio I listened to ABCFM and whatever 102.5 is calling itself. ( it has a great blues program from 8 p.m. on Monday nights).

ABC Radio  National is a jewel. It is also a bit of a curates egg. I have neither the time nor the inclination to investigate all the programs they have but a few I do like are:

• Background briefing. It it is on a subject that interests you it is essential listening. I still remember one done on dentistry and Multi-national corporations. My demist fully supported its investigations.
• Geraldine Dooge and her morning program on Saturday. If I am awake I always listen to it.
• Tom Switzer's between the lines. He has personality and interesting guests
• Phiilp Adams late night live. Loads of personality , a great radio voice and fascinating guests usually talking about their book articles.
• Breakfast would be essential listening if Hamish McDonald took the program over from Fran Kelly.

ABC News Radio is very good when parliament was not on. News from around the world from various radio organisations. Hate Aussie rules on the weekends though.

ABC Local radio ( which is what they call 702 these days) is good for the current affairs programs when on. AM on in the morning , PM in the evening and the world at noon at midday. ( strange about all those programs.)

2GB is the highest rating station. It is also the most biased station. Tony Abbott, Peter Dutton are regulars who 'interviewed' on the station. Fake news like a lack of electricity following Liddell being closed own is regularly talked about.  Malcolm Turnbull is not liked but tony Abbott is. some of the 'personalities' have do have loads of personality so you can understand why they are successful.Ray Hadley or Ben Fordham come to mind. however Alan Jones does not . He is simply a grumpy old man who whinges a lot and he has no personalty. ( My own Alan Jones story will come along at some stage. He sounds like the insecure, vindictive person he is yet he is popular. why?

2UE is now simply a sports station after its  unsuccessful foray into lifestyle. most of its presenters are deadset boring. ( is that a good sporting sentence). I don't want to hear about ice hockey or US basketball or even AFL .Its superstar is Billy McGee. Loads of personality, tons of enthusiasm for any sport and always talks as he understands all facets of the sport he is taking about,, I know him from the A-League show on 2GB and he is a breath of fresh air. He comes on about 8.15-30 at night to talk about up to date sport.  He talks as though he is a lot younger than he actually is.
One boring thing is on saturday and sunday night they replay press conferences.

2KY is simply if you are a loser who punts a lot and thus loses money. Only in Australia.

It can get very boring at night on the weekends with all station ( except radio national and 2 KY) broadcasting AFL or NRL games.

If you like Statistics ( and econometrics)

Over at the excellent Econbrowser Menzie Chinn put up this post estimates-of-excess-fatalities-in-puerto-rico-post-maria and then this post excess-deaths-inferred-from-puerto-rican-administrative-data and finally this post please-do-not-comment-on-this-post-unless-you-understand-the-following-terms. Sorry this is the last post garbage-and-non-garbage-estimates-puerto-rico-edition

I  told them all TWICE to read Andrew Gelman's post which was data-code-study-puerto-rico-deaths.

All useful posts if you merely studied statistics at Uni when doing Economics like me.

Please note the comments . They are quite good at Andrew's blog. Not so at Menzies's.

I should add it highlights the difference between statistics which is Andrew's great strength and econometrics which is Menzies's