Politics as farce

Two great examples of politics descending into farce.

Firstly in Australia we have proposed legislation windy rhetoric that current refugees at Mannus and Nauru will NEVER be allowed in Australia. They are worried about them coming to Australia via a third country like New Zealand or Canada.

Let me get this right. A refugee settles in New Zealand or Canad has a good future but then decides he might migrate or even travel to Australia. This thinking is so stupid it could come from Steve Kates.
These people would like to live in a first world country so they will not be persecuted like they were in their home country. They are allowed to live in New Zealand or Canada but no they simply want to live in Australia. WHY? Housing affordability in much worse in Australia for example. Then of course can you imagine what the 'people smugglers' would be saying now. Hey get on a boat and wait maybe ten years maybe more and you can live in Australia. Wonderfully attractive eh!
I should add this is clearly a sop to One Nation to get votes through the Senate, Hanson has said Australia should have NO refugees!

Secondly in the United States we have the FBI ignoring the very protocols it is supposed to  work by by issuing a statement saying they are looking at e-mails at a computer of a former congressman.They do not even know what is in the e-mails.
Of all the explanations i have heard I think Carl Bernstein of 'Watergate' fame has it best. James Comey is simply covering his 'arse'. This would show he is in fact a bureaucrat not a FBI director.

Both the above examples is why people are so peeved with politics at present.

Around the Traps 28/10/16

it is time for Around the Traps again

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• John Quiggin on competition-and-human-services-dont-mix , a-tribute-to-fred-gruen , the-magic-pudding-yet-again
• Marion Terrill on spectacular-cost-blowouts-show-need-to-keep-governments-honest-on-transport
• Croaking Cassandra on eden-park-advertisers-and-the-nz-tradables-sector , a-victoria-university-professor-on-new-zealand-immigration , the-reserve-bank-interest-rate-projections , housing-reform-the-corn-laws-and-possibilities-for-new-zealand
• Mark the Ballot on early-voters-favour-coalition
• Greg Jericho on interest-rates-are-at-record-lows-dont-expect-them-to-go-any-lower , why-government-debt-isnt-the-biggest-threat-to-australias-credit-rating , how-the-unemployment-rate-hides-what-is-happening-in-the-economy , reserve-bank-could-justify-a-cut-on-cup-day-but-is-there-any-point
• John Daley et al on solutions-beyond-supply-to-the-housing-affordability-problem
• Gabrielle Appleby on role-of-solicitor-general-has-been-damaged-and-the-government-must-work-to-fix-it
• Nick Gruen on investor-state-dispute-settlement
• Helen Hodgson on paid-parental-leave-plan-ignores-economics-of-well-functioning-families
• The Kouk on peter-costello-and-the-future-fund-fiddle
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-turnbull-slide-continues
• Andrew Elder on politics-beyond-canberra
• Robert Manne on how-we-came-to-be-so-cruel-to-asylum-seekers
• various on removal-of-double-dipping-from-parental-leave-may-impact-mothers-health
• Gary Mortimer on phantom-brands-haunting-our-supermarket-shelves-as-home-brand-in-disguise
• David Beirman on dreamworld-owner-ardent-leisure-needs-a-lesson-in-managing-a-crisis

Northern America

• Mark Thoma gives us Kruggers on debt-diversion-distraction
• Nate Silver on election-update-trump-may-depress-republican-turnout-spelling-disaster-for-the-gop , election-update-the-polls-disagree-and-thats-ok
• Sam Wang on politics-polls-16-the-real-rigged-voting, why-do-the-polls-seem-so-variable-this-week
• Frances Woolley on why-is-it-so-hard-to-know-the-relationship-between-immigration-and-economic-performance
• Calculated Risk on real-prices-and-price-to-rent-ratio-in-august, a-few-comments-on-september-new-home-sales
• John Robertson on is-wage-growth-accelerating Thanks Mark
• Narayana Kocherlakota on the-u-s-job-recovery-is-a-global-laggard , how-italy-s-job-market-beats-the-u-sThanks Mark
• Timothy Taylor on some-snapshots-of-incarceration-and-prisoner-reentry , the-coleman-report-n-equal-educational-opportunity-50-years-later
• Justin Fox on manufacturing-s-productivity-myth Thanks Mark
• Dietrich Vollrath on productivity
• Simon Butt on jessica-wongso-found-guilty-in-cyanide-coffee-case-but-she-may-not-yet-have-had-a-fair-trial
• Pat McConnell on asic-report-highlights-a-deep-culture-problem-in-australias-banks
• Menzie Chinn on recession-watch-october-2016
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-the-fed-and-inequality
• James Hamilton on q3-gdp

Europe

• David Wells on Why-Europe-should-consider-a-foreign-fighter-amnesty-scheme
• Simon Wren-Lewis on helping-broadcast-media-be-informative
• Daniel Woker on Trumpism-in-Europe
• Chris Dillow on blind-to-costs , whose-racism
• Twenty cent Paradigm on time-for-sterling-crisis Thanks Mark

Asia

• Patrick Jory on Thailands-year-of-living-dangerously
• Menzie Chinn on gaining-currency-the-rise-of-the-renminbi
• Brad Setser on asias-persistent-savings-glut Thanks Mark 
• Bruce McKern on made-in-china-three-ways-chinese-business-has-evolved-from-imitation-to-innovation
• Roger Shanahan on no-fly-zone-yemen

Wonk

• Dani Rodrik on how-to-tell-apart-trade-agreements-that-undermine-democratic-principles-from-those-that-dont
• Barry Eichengreen on  rethinking-capital-controls Thanks Mark
• Mike Kimel on how does diversity affect economic growth
• Coppolla comment on raising-interest-rates-is-not-that-easy
• Timothy Taylor on what-else-can-central-banks-do , is-foreign-direct-investment-mostly-portfolio-flows-in-disguise
• Croaking Cassandra on experts-harness-them-dont-let-them-set-the-course , imf-advocacy-for-immigration-some-caveats
• Brad De Long on why-did-keynes-write-in-the-long-run-we-are-all-dead
• IMFDirect on migrants-bring-economic-benefits-for-advanced-economies Thanks Mark
• Noah Smith on mergers-raise-prices-not-efficiency , want-more-startups-build-a-better-safety-net
• Francesco Saraceno on monetary-policy-credibility-2-0
• Nick Bunker on new-research-on-market-power-and-productivity Thanks Mark
• Daniel Little on rational-choice-institutionalism Thanks Mark 
• Simon Wren-Lewis on being-honest-about-ideological-in;uence-in-economics
• Tim Harford on the-sweatshop-dilemma
• The Everyday economist on what-are-real-business-cycles Thanks Mark
• Adam Levitin on does-behavioral-economics-matter Thanks Mark
• Nick Rowe on synchronisation-and-the-gross-money-supply
• Robert Waldmann on benchmark-ii
• David Beckworth on the-knowledge-problem-in-monetary-policy

General

• Kelly Anne Waters on health-check-how-to-choose-toothpaste
• Elizabeth Tippett on why-companies-like-wells-fargo-ignore-their-whistleblowers-at-their-peril
• Ann Reichell on why-sugar-is-so-much-worse-for-teenagers-brains
• environmental economics on even-top-economists-publish-in-predatory-journals-study-finds Thanks Mark

Climate

• Andrew Hopkins on the-gas-industry-needs-a-carbon-price-to-compete-with-coal
• Davis Appell on callendars-1938-figure
• Tamino on sea-ice-update-2 , desperate-denial , people-of-the-land , 400 , hurricanes-sea-level-and-baloney
• and Then Theres Physics on another-97-% , the-middle-ground
• Skeptical science on gw-continues-2016-hottest-year-ever-recorded
• Frances Woolley on the-carbon-costs-of-immigration
• David Stern on recent-estimates-of-climate-sensitivity, the-ocean-in-climate-econometrics Thanks Mark
• Marc Hudson on another-prime-minister-another-endorsement-for-coal-but-why
• Karl Bragaanza and Steve Rintoul on state-of-the-climate-2016-bureau-of-meteorology-and-csiro
• Jeff Masters on sea-ice-extent-is-near-record-lowssouth-as-well-as-north
• Rob Honeycutt on tracking the 2C limit
• various on will-the-great-barrier-reef-recover-from-its-worst-ever-bleaching

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• another failed replication of power pose
• how-one-study-produced-a-bunch-of-untrue-headlines-about-tattoos-strengthening-your-immune-system
• spin
• ptolemaic-inference
• how-not-to-analyze-noisy-data-a-case-study
• colorless-green-ideas-tweet-furiously
• problems
• generic and consistent confidence and credible regions
• happiness of conservatives and liberals in different countires
• warriors-suck-bayesian-exploration
• conflicts of interest
• no-evidence-shark-attacks-swing-elections
• updating-fast-slow
• Kaiser Fung on readers-guide-to-the-power-pose-controversy-1, readers-guide-to-the-power-pose-controversy-2
• Chris Dillow on resisting-asymmetric-bayesianism
• Kids prefer Cheese on no-causal-connection-between-sugar-and-obesity

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• No Hesitations on machine-learning-vs-econometrics-iv

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• the-enlightened-economist-prize-2017-the-winner , revolt-of-the-data-points , not-the-smartest-animals
• Rebecca English on toilet-training-from-birth-it-is-possible
• Roselin Petelin on crimes-of-grammar-and-other-writing-misdemeanours

Vox wonk

• housing-cycles-real-estate-valuations-and-economic-growth
• gender-gap-two-stage-maths-competition
• new-ebook-what-do-uk-eu-perspectives-brexit
• biased-technical-change-and-labour-demand-evidence-global-value-chains
• exchange-rate-predictability-medium-term
• why-unconventional-monetary-policy-works-theory
• understanding-bank-payouts-during-financial-crisis-2007-2009
• evaluating-regional-policy-and-shocks-real-world
• danger-germanys-current-account-surpluses-results-cfm-and-cepr-survey
• exchange-rate-behaviour-when-interest-rates-are-negative
• climate-change-and-cost-inaction
• relationship-between-job-displacement-and-crime
• oliver-hart-nobel-laureate
• certified-random-co-authors
• compulsory-voting-turnout-and-government-spending

Australia's state of the Climate

The Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO have combined to produce another State of the Climate for Australia again.

A very interesting read.

• More extreme weather is expected
• CO₂ concentrations at Cape Grim passed through 400 parts per million for the first time in May 2016, and global concentrations are now at their highest levels in the past two million years.
• There has been an increase in extreme fire weather, and a lengthening of the fire season in most fire-prone regions since the 1970s.
• In particular, May–July rainfall has reduced by around 19% since 1970 in the southwest of Australia. There has been a decline of around 11% since the mid-1990s in April–October rainfall in the continental southeast. Southeast Australia has had below-average rainfall in 16 of the April–October periods since 1997.
• Australia’s oceans have also warmed, with sea surface temperature increases closely matching those experienced on land. This warming affects both the marine environment and Australia’s terrestrial climate, due to the large influence of surrounding oceans on our weather systems. Sea levels have risen around Australia, which has the potential to amplify the effects of high tides and storm surges.
• warming in the global oceans now extends to at least 2,000 metres below the surface. 
•  studies of record heat experienced during Spring in 2013 and 2014 have shown that the observed high temperatures received an extra contribution from background global warming.

It is a really good read.

Pauline Hanson

Way back in 1996 Pauline Hanson warned us that Australia was being overrun by Asians. She was wrong, badly wrong.

Now she is back she is saying Australia is being overrun by Muslims. Again she is wrong badly wrong. We are more likely being overrun by one nation voters than Muslims  ( There are more one nation voters than Muslims in Australia).

As Peter Lewis has shown most people have no idea of how many Muslims are immigrating to Australia. There is no excuse for Hanson to peddle such nonsense unless she is deliberately lying to garner political support. We can say her initial foray into politics was based on ignorance and prejudice.

There is no excuse this time.Moreover what idiot would attempt to put all Muslims in the same bucket. Does she think ISIL doesn't kill Shia Muslims.
Has she ever wondered why terrorism comes essentially from one sect of Sunni Islam?

I suspect Hanson research is done by Steve Kates!?

The Solicitor General resigns

For the first time in over 100 years the Solicitor General has resigned.
This was always going to occur after George Brandis the Attorney General issued a directive that ALL people who wished to be briefed by the Solicitor General must have his agreement.

We need to understand a few things.
Justin Gleeson who resigned has an eminent reputation in legal circles. George Brandis does not.
George Brandis is known for being a pompous git who is not known for his intellectual insights. He is also known for being an accident prone politician.
Indeed in recent times he has clearly misled both Parliament and possibly his cabinet colleagues on legal advice he clearly implied came from the Solicitor General when it did not.

Justin Gleeson clearly knew he could no longer work with George Brandis. Under most conventions Brandis would have resigned by now.

Whilst Brandis is still Attorney General the government will not get candidates of a high calibre to be Solicitor General that has happened in the past.
See Gabrielle Appleby

All this conforms this government is slowly but surely sinking into a mire all of its own making. It is as though tony Abbott was still in charge!

Around the Traps 21/10/16

It is time for Around the Traps again, Junior Rep cricket season on Sunday so the next five weeks will be tough to update

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on productivity-growth-how-have-we-been-doing , getting-back-to-monetary-policy , does-australia-really-need-the-english-influence
• Peter Martin on whats-mining-ever-done-for-us-just-wait
• Amy Maguire on accusations-of-deliberate-cruel-abuse-of-refugee-children-must-prompt-a-more-humane-approach
• Greg Austin on australians-have-little-to-fear-from-terrorism-at-home-heres-why
• Rohan James on death-on-the-great-barrier-reef-how-dead-coral-went-from-economic-resource-to-conservation-symbol
• Samara McPhedran on explainer-what-is-the-adler-shotgun-and-should-restrictions-on-it-be-lifted
• Mark the Ballot on australian-election-history
• Cat Barker on  Firearms
• Kevin Bonham on act-election-live-and-post-count-comment
• The Kouk on the-real-reason-young-aussies-are-struggling-to-get-on-the-property-ladder
• Gennadi Kazakevitch on are-wind-farms-messing-up-the-electricity-market
• Chris Wright and Stephen Clibborn on australia-is-at-risk-of-losing-migrants-who-are-vital-to-the-health-of-our-economy

Northern America

• Carola Binder on independence-at-cfpb-and-fed Thanks Mark
• Stanley Fischer on why are interest rates so low Thanks Mark
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-are-yellen-and-fischer-really-worlds-apart
• Nick Bunker on yellen-poses-important-post-great-recession-macroeconomic-questions Thanks Mark
• Antonio Fatas on the-stock-market-looks-cheap
• Progrowth liberal on the-pe-ratio-and-gordon-growth-model
• John Robertson on unemployment-risk-and-unions Thanks Mark
• Ben Bernanke and John Olsen on are-americans-better-off-than-they-were-a-decade-or-two-ago Thanks Mark
• Justin Fox on no-u-s-manufacturing-isn-t-really-booming Thanks Mark
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-september-housing-starts , a-few-comments-on-september-existing-home-sales, the-structural-factors-behind-steady-fall-in-labour-force-participation
• Brad De Long on the-three-ways-in-which-the-post-korean-war-federal-reserve-reactsleads-large-increases-in-the-unemployment-rate
• Edward Lambert on glitch-is-lm-model , yellen-wants-to-understnd-ed
• Sam Wang on synch-and-swim
• Menzie Chinn on the-recovery-in-perspective-again
• Ezra Klein on hillary-clinton-debate-trump-won Thanks Brad
• Frances Woolley on how-will-requiring-functional-bilingualism-change-the-face-of-the-supreme-court
• New Deal Democrat on the-darkening-skies
• Dani Rodril on its-a-war-of-ideas-not-of-interests Thanks Brad
• David Beckworth on has-macroeconomic-policy-been-different-since-the-crisis
• Tim Taylor on will-us-become-nation-of-renters
• Narayana Kocherlakota on what-the-fed-really-needs-to-know Thanks Mark

Europe

• Simon Wren-Lewis on structural-reforms-and-greece
• Coppolla comment on the-dominance-of-brexit
• Chris Dillow on sterlings-effects , in-defence-of-bank-independence , the-freedom-hating-right
• Timothy Taylor on how-do-french-do-it

Asia

• Brad Setser on chinese-exports-and-imports-are-growing-in-2016-in-real-terms , china-too-much-investment-but-also-way-too-much-savings Thanks Mark
• Smoin Mabon on even-if-mosul-is-liberated-it-wont-be-the-end-of-islamic-state
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-is-the-renminbi-a-safe-haven
• Jim Molan on How-the-fight-for-Mosul-is-likely-to-play-out
• Nolan Sharkey on crown-employee-arrests-show-danger-of-assumptions-about-china
• Nick Bisley on differences-on-liberalism-provide-asias-latest-faultline
• Lauren Williams on Retaking-Mosul-will-be-hard-but-Raqqa-will-be-harder
• Malcolm Cook on Duterte-doubles-down-on-his-China-pivot

Wonk

• Chris Dillow on reclaiming-the-n-word , the-upside-of-relative-decline
• Noah Smith on david-sloan-wilsons-econ-critique , public-housing-isn-t-wasted-on-the-poor, an-econ-test-question-we-shouldn-t-get-wrong , do-economists-have-physics-envy-part-2 , a-tale-of-two-stagnations.liberals-compete-for-the-soul-of-economics
• David Sloan Wilson on opinion-noahpinion-response-noah-smiths-critique
• Timothy Taylor on how-clones-can-experience-unequal-economic-outcomes , global-debt-hits-all-time-high , arnold-harberger-is-growth-yeast-or-mushroomsl
• Stephen Grenville on The-globalisation-of-our-discontent
• Dennis Muller on when-truth-is-the-first-casualty-of-politics-and-journalism
• Simon Wren-Lewis on news-entertainment-and-trump, neoliberalism-and-austerity
• James Kwak on you-cant-get-there-from-here  , structure-and-superstructureThanks Mark
• Cecchetti and Scoenholtz on rewriting-the-textbook-covered-interest-parity Thanks Mark
• Nick Rowe on monetary-science-fiction
• Tim Harford on the-ig-nobel-prizes-in-economics-in-praise-of-ridiculous-research
• Coppolla comment on state-pensions-property-right-or-benefit
• Matt Roberts-Skar on bitesize-250-years-of-the-bond-equity-correlation Thanks Mark

General

• Andrea Carson on how-investigative-journalists-are-using-social-media-to-uncover-the-truth
• Kate Burridge on how-the-dictionary-is-totes-taking-up-the-vernacular
• Mark Humphrey-Jenner on what-went-wrong-with-pokemon-go-three-lessons-from-its-plummeting-player-numbers
• Linday Wu on is-the-red-wine-compound-resveratrol-a-miracle-drug-for-infertility-and-ageing
• tim Harford on theres-magic-in-mess-why-you-should-embrace-a-disorderly-desk

Climate

• Tamino on divergence-between-bob-tisdale-and-proper-analysis , by-request-adjusted-satellite-and-surface-data , by-request-validation ,extreme-cherry-ice ,  breaking-bad
• Arctic sea ice blog on arctic-sea-ice-minimum-volume-1979-2016
• Real Climate on q-a-about-the-gulf-stream-system-slowdown-and-the-atlantic-cold-blob
• Jeff Masters on global-temperature-just-short-of-record-in-september-says-noaa
• Izen on climate-sensitivity-and-visual-rhetoric
• and Then There's Physics on matt-ridleys-lecture
• Andrew King and Benjamin Henley on september-brought-the-worlds-record-breaking-hot-streak-to-an-end-but-dont-chill-out

Andrew Gelman (mostly stats)

• marginally-significant-effects-as-evidence-for-hypotheses-changing-attitudes-over-four-decades
• some-people-are-so-easy-to-contact-and-some-people-arent
• should
• the-psychological-science-stereotype-paradox
• we-have-a-ways-to-go-in-communicating-the-replication-crisis
• polls
• avoiding-model-selection-bayesian-social-research-2
• coeffients are important
• Sam Wang on the-virtues-of-the-l-a-times-poll
• Kaiser Fung on the-plural-of-anecdote-is-not-

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• Macromom on why distrust data Thanks Mark
• No Hesitations on machine-learning-vs-econometrics-iii
• Marc Bellamare on Simpson's paradox  Thanks Mark

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• talking-statistics-in-the-woods
• Andrew Brown on a-science-fiction-tasting-menu-for-the-as-yet-uninitiated

Vox Wonk

• natural-rate-interest-its-measurement-monetary-policy-and-zero-lower-bound
• understanding-moral-repugnance-case-kidney-market
• persistently-low-rates-and-monetary-transmission
• management-quality-matters-evidence-chinese-firms
• assimilation-and-health-immigrants-us-evidence
• economics-and-politics-refugee-migration
• bond-equity-allocation-norwegian-sovereign-wealth-fund
• central-banking-and-bitcoin-not-yet-threat
• why-estimates-trade-effects-eurozone-vary-so-much
• new-measure-economic-asymmetries-eurozone
• income-distribution-and-aggregate-saving
• africas-prospects-enjoying-demographic-dividend
• why-we-fail-prevent-civil-wars
• trade-data-gap-mistake-and-malfeasance
• how-import-competition-china-helped-fuel-credit-bubble-2000s
• corruption-doesnt-grease-wheels-central-or-eastern-europe
• how-import-competition-china-helped-fuel-credit-bubble-2000s
• secular-stagnation-bubbles-fiscal-policy-and-introduction-contraceptive-pill
• hours-worked-europe-and-us
• multinational-firms-and-business-cycle-co-movement
• voter-response-conditional-cash-transfers
• firm-productivity-and-workers-wages
• choosing-valuation-technique-education-versus-profession

Australia has nothing to fear from terrorism

That got in you in didn't it!

Greg Austin outlines his reasons for saying this.Interesting reading!

The Nominal GDP should increase

We have for some time been in a time of continuing terms of trade.
This lead to nominal GDP falling and continuing to be weak.
This lead to people feeling negative about the economy as well as having adverse impact on the budget because of the revenue implications.This originally started with the last ALP government!
now the worm has turned and most people are expecting the terms of trade to increase. If commodity prices are maintained at present levels nominal GDP could increase by between 2-3%.
This will lift living standards and  confidence.

Peter Martin has got most of it right as per usual. A caveat should be put in. When commodity prices rose after the GFC it had little consequences on revenue for the government and this perplexed Treasury as it continued to write about possible reasons why revenue had not risen as commodity prices rose.

Hopefully most people will learn the lesson that we live in the nominal economy not the real economy.

Around the Traps 14/10/16

It is time for Around the Traps again.
Sorry about being late.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Tony Wood on climate-change-must-be-part-of-australias-electricity-system-review
• Croaking Cassandra on a-modest-start , rip-timely-mortgage-approval-statistics , businessnz-argues-for-more-immigration
• Clive Phillips on new-south-wales-overturns-greyhound-ban-a-win-for-the-industry-but-a-massive-loss-for-the-dogs
• Stephen Grenville on A-renegotiated-TPP-may-not-be-in-our-interests
• Michael Hogan on evangelical-politics-the-rise-and-fall-of-mike-baird
• Greg Jericho on mathias-cormanns-justification-for-the-4bn-tax-cuts-is-economic-snake-oil
• Rueben Finighan on can-australia-stop-interest-rates-from-approaching-zero-only-with-a-big-shift-in-policy
• Brendan Thomas-Noone on Cyber-interference-with-political-process-now-a-threat-to-be-reckoned-with
• Vidiasagar Poldar on whatsapp-a-great-idea-for-mates-but-a-terrible-one-for-ministers
• The Kouk on why-poor-aussie-financial-literacy-is-to-blame-for-banks-overselling-their-financial-products

Northern America

• John Quiggin on if-professors-made-500kyear-would-they-be-republicans
• Frances Woolley on residential-schools-what-were-they-thinking
• Peter Ellerton on post-truth-politics-and-the-us-election-why-the-narrative-trumps-the-facts
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-jobs-data-keeps-hawks-sidelined
• Edward Lambert on is-us-at-full-employment
• Corey Robin on trump-the-ringmaster-and-his-unwitting-clowns
• John Fernald on what-is-the-new-normal-for-gdp-growth Thanks Mark
• Narayana Kocherlakota on how-the-fed-turns-good-news-into-bad, bring-the-fed-s-dead-meetings-to-life Thanks Mark
• Nate Silver on election-update-post-debate-polls-show-trump-still-in-big-trouble , trump-isnt-teflon
• Sam Wang on weekend at Bernies
• Nick Bunker on how-much-bigger-can-the-u-s-labor-force-get Thanks Mark
• James Stock and Mark Watson on Why has GDP been so lsow ro recover Thanks Brad
• Mark Thoma gives is Kruggers on the-clinton-agenda
• Brad De Long on draft-did-macroeconomic-policy-play-a-different-role-in-the-post-2009-recovery
• Stephen Gordon on project-link-piecing-together-recent-canadian-economic-history

Europe

• Chris Dillow on brexit-a-worthless-experiment , the-association-fallacy
• Mark Thoma gives us Kruggers on notes-on-brexit-and-the-pound
• Simon Wren-Lewis on did-bank-of-england-cause-brexit, brexit-and-sterling
• Ann Marie Balbi on Time-for-Put-in-the-foot-down
• Lauren Bowers on double-trouble-how-closely-related-are-the-uks-twin-deficits-and-should-we-be-concerned Thanks Mark

Asia

• Mathew Del Santo on Syria-needs-the-best-of-the-Wests-diplomats;-not-lawyers
• Barry Eichengreen on china-renminbi-internationalization
• Lee Jones on thailand-mourns-its-king-and-heads-into-the-unknown
• Gavin Butler on thailands-controversial-king-to-be-faces-a-challenge-to-gain-the-peoples-respect
• Neil Irwin on upshot/britains-economy-was-resilient-after-brexit-its-leaders-learned-the-wrong-lesson Thanks Brad
• Brad Setser on china-september-exports-not-quite-as-bad-as-they-seem Thanks Mark
• Tony Yates on japans-temporary-overshoot-attempt

Wonk

• Chris Dillow on when-to-distrust-elites , economics-as-literature , capitalism-loneliness
• Noah Smith on an-economics-nobel-for-examining-reality
• Timothy Taylor on oliver-hart-and-bengt-holmstrom-2016.-prize-winners , snapshots-of-global-poverty-and-ineqality , the-economics-of-noncognitive-skills
• Simon Wren-Lewis on ricardian-equivalence-benchmark-models
• Menzie Chinn on re-writing-the-international-textbook
• Eric Lonergan on where-next-monetary-policy-in-a-post-policy-rate-world
• Menzie Chinn on rookie-economist-errors-ii
• Doni Rodrik on protectionism-for-global-openness Thanks Mark
• Brad Setser on splitting-out-emerging-economies-changes-the-picture-on-global-trade

General

• Noah Smith on freedom-of-speech-in-digital-age
• Alan Hirsch on why-south-africa-faces-a-train-smash-if-its-finance-minister-is-removed
• Rachael Buckland on Reporting-migration-Big-challenges-for-old-and-new-media
• Richard Brown on why-bob-dylan-deserves-his-nobel-prize-in-literature

Climate

• Tamino on zombies , bait-and-switch
• and Then There's Physics on guest-post-post-factual-perceptions-of-weather
• variable variability on stable-global-climate-reference-network
• Critical Angle on sensitivity-training
• Arctic sea ice blog on piomas-october-2016
• Rabett run on mitrovica-redux

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• no-i-dont-think-the-outcome-of-the-super-bowl-affects-birth-weights
• should you abandon the low salt diet
• Mr P can solve problems with with survey weighting
• transparency, replication and publication
• stan-case-studies
• yes-you-can-play-this-game-at-home-applying-the-if-theres-no-report-you-can-read-theres-no-study-principle-in-real-time
• is-it-fair-to-use-bayesian-reasoning-to-convict-someone-of-a-crime
• Kaiser Fung on two-quick-hits-how-bad-data-analysis-harms-our-discourse , why-are-gmat-scores-going-up , the-plural-of-anecdote-is-not

Genial Dave Giles ( econmetrics)

• No Hesitations on machine-learning-vs-econometrics-ii

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• quantum-economics , fear-of-the-unknown , enlightened-economist-prize-2016-longlist , the-joy-of-messiness, a-land-built-by-economists , london-as-another-country
• Tim Harford on a-messy-reader
• Doverbeach on weekend-reading

Vox Wonk

• economic-consequences-1953-london-debt-agreement
• global-value-chains-and-competitiveness-asian-countries
• costs-cascading-trade-protection
• heterogeneity-and-unemployment-dynamics
• time-growth
• transformation-us-fiscal-system-1930s
• case-active-fiscal-policy
• hysteresis-and-fiscal-policy-during-global-crisis
• stress-testing-eu-fiscal-framework
• using-bibliometrics-gauge-research-quality
• gasoline-demand-more-price-responsive-you-might-have-thought
• stress-testing-eu-fiscal-framework
• economic-perspective-mental-health-problems
• fiscal-crisis-quantitative-easing-works-theory-too
• great-normalisation-global-trade

Baird's Backflips.

Oh how times do change.
Mr Baird the Premier of NSW the conviction politician now backflips each day.

Before we discuss this let us examine the polling fortunes of Mr Baird and his government. to do this we naturally go to Kevin Bonham.

What interests me is the complete lack of any evidence that the Greyhound decision was costing them any votes.  The National party in NSW clearly understand polling as well as the ALP members did when they replaced Kevin Rudd! Yes some shock jocks disliked it .So what

The NSW government has/ is about to backflip on greyhounds, shark netting, the lock outs laws. I am at a loss why the policy of council mergers has not been mentioned. It was by far the most controversial and based on very 'thin' evidence. They had no 'mandate' for the policy. moreover why do State government determine whether  local Governments are doing their job. Would the State government like the Federal government to come in and overturn what the voters wanted in a State election.

It seems the Present Government does not seem to understand a government needs to stand fopr something. With so many back flips what does Baird stand for now. He has gained Turnbullitis.

World Cup qualifier

Let us not mince our words. Australia were pretty poor last night. We were lucky to gain a draw..

Yes in the first half we were sluggish and lethargic in the first half BUT we were so slow when we had possession. There is no point in keeping possession if you are not trying to gain an advantage by it either in an offensive or defensive manner and so make an attacking raid on the opposition.
Too often last night we merely passed the ball back without any idea of what we were going to do.

What was worse we gave the ball away very easily at times when there was no pressure on. The Japanese goal came from a poor pass from the back by Sainsbury ( who is usually quite good at passing from the back.

This shocked me I have never seen any Australian side pass so poorly before.

I am simply going to say Australia had an off night but we still got a point.

I would not try 442 formation again as each time it hasn't worked and I do not think we have the players to use it properly. the midfield as a point has no clue of how to react.

Ryan McGowan looked out of his depth. He lacks pace as a fullback and was frequently caught out of position.

I also think we need to start with either Leckie or Kruse

Al Qaeda and ISIL

Both Al Qaeda and ISIL come from the same place in terms of sunni extremism.

However there is a huge difference in the two organisations.
Even in its diversified form you had to show you were good enough to be in Al Qaeda. Any plans had to be approved but were usually quite professional.

However most attacks undertaken by 'ISIL' are undertaken by lone wolves and we only learn AFTER the event they supported ISIL. In other words ISIL had no input into the attacks but were happy to take the 'kudos' from the attack.

Thus it can be seen attacks these days are much harder to prevent as there is little communication going on. sometimes the lone wolf could be on the radar sometimes they are not.

George Bush has a lot to answer for!

The Sydney Derby

I went with my two sons to the Sydney derby on Saturday night.
We were part of the 62,000.
We sat high up in the stand and had a fabulous view.

It was a great occasion and a great atmosphere.
It was a shame the FFA did not market the game by saying it should be larger than the Manchester derby. That would have been a stunning marketing  boost for the game both here and overseas.

The game was disappointing for a Wanderers fan. We should have been up 2-0 at half time. We missed another easy shot in the second half. A true reflection of the game would have been a 2-0  win for Sydney FC.

The Wanders have a ponderous central backs.They had a centre back as a full back.He lacked pace.
Hopefully Poppa can change this.

Finally all Sydney derbies for the Wanderers should be at Homebush.
I shall be at the next one at Homebush.

The Referee had a very good game but neither linesman did.

Stephen Stills

Here is Stephen Stills doing Crossroads live.

It was sensational when I first heard this on his live album. It is just as good today.

Around the Traps 7/10/16

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie.Aussie,Aussie.Oy,Oy,Oy

• John Daley et al  on the-superannuation-myth-why-its-a-mistake-to-increase-contributions-to-12-of-earnings
• John Quiggin on the-lnponp-coalition-government-whos-in-charge , the-good-news-on-climate, a-small-victory
• The Kouk on credit-downgrade-assured-if-coalition-keeps-hiding-from-its-debt-and-deficit-disaster
• Laura Perry and Emma Rowe on yes-some-australian-private-schools-are-overfunded-heres-why
• Paul Harrison on consumers-dont-understand-smartphone-contracts
• Croaking Cassandra on rbnz-board-not-doing-the-job-parliament-gave-them , envy-of-the-world-or-middling-at-best
• Kevin Bonham on recent-nsw-state-polling
• Samantha Hepburn on south-australian-blackout-renewables-arent-a-threat-to-energy-security-theyre-the-future
• Mark Gibbs on lessons-from-south-australias-blackout-we-need-to-make-infrastructure-more-resilient-to-climate-change
• Abbas Valadkhani on banks-make-millions-in-delaying-interest-rate-cuts
• Gabrialle Appleby on standoff-between-brandis-and-solicitor-general-threatens-the-rule-of-law
• Dylan McConnell on we-dont-know-why-south-australias-wind-farms-stopped-working-so-hold-off-on-the-blame-game

Northern America

• Jonathon Lipson on can-trump-create-millions-of-jobs-dont-bet-on-it
• Progrowth Liberal on Trump and taxes , rubin-or-trump-as-strong-dollar-type
• Sam Wang on presidential-debate-question-gerrymandering
• 538 on the-tax-returns-story-may-eat-up-precious-time-for-trump , election-update-how-big-is-hillary-clintons-lead , election-update-clintons-lead-is-becoming-safer , the-job-market-will-be-solid-on-election-day
• Cecchetti and Schoenholtz on how-risky-are-the-big-us-banks Thanks Mark 
• Menzie Chinn on on-reading-the-trump-economic-plan
• Timothy Taylor on snapshots-of-us-housing-market , rising-out-of-pocket-health-care-costs
• Narayana Kocherlakota on why-americans-feel-poor-in-one-chart Thanks Mark
• Federico Mandleman and Andrei Zlate on slump-undocumented-immigration-to-united-states Thanks Mark
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-hard-to-say-that-november-is-really-live
• Pat Higgins on taylor-rule Thanks Brad
• Frances Woolley on residential-schools-what-were-they-thinking
• Calculated risk on employment-comments-another-decent-report , public-and-private-sector-payroll-jobs-under-various-presidents
• Mark Thoma gives us Kruggers on what-about-the-planet
• Sam Wang on the-hardened-divide-why-donald-trump-is-mitt-romney-lite

Europe

• Chris Dillow on generational-vs-class-divides , footsies-verdict-on-brexit
• Kevin O'Rourke on what-should-ireland-be-looking-for
• Simon Wren-Lewis on little-englanders

Asia

• Timothy Taylor on china-flexes-toward-consumption
• Aaron Connelly on Obama-and-the-Israeli-story
• Roger Shanahan on Syria-What-are-we-going-to-do-now , Syria-What-we-could-do-now
• Euan Graham onWhat-the-Philippines-and-Australia-can-learn-from-Vietnam-about-living-with-China
• Dina Esfandiary on Post-sanctions-Iran-Has-the-performance-matched-the-promises

Wonk

• Brad De Long on how-seriously-should-we-take-the-new-keynesian-model
• Nick Rowe on front-vs-rear-wheel-steering-for-monetary-policy , the-brexit-news-boom
• Greg Ip on fiscal-policy-makes-a-quiet-turn-toward-stimulus Thanks Brad
• Joland Jeffen and Frank Mols on is-protectionism-a-siren-song-to-the-poor-or-to-the-wealthy
• Ross Guest on governments-and-central-banks-should-stop-trying-to-stimulate-the-economy
• Brendan Thomas Noone on As-tactical-nuclear-arsenals-are-modernised-the-risk-of-arms-racing-grows
• Noah Smith on hunting-rational-expectations-whale , there-s-a-surplus-of-worry-about-debt , breaking-the-spell-that-grips-economics , low-rates-are-here-to-stay
• David Andolfatto on beveridge-curves 
• Olivier Blanchard on further-thoughts-dsge-models Thanks Brad
• Stephen Grenville on Dont-blame-globalisation
• Richard Wellings on why-does-privatisation-sometimes-go-wrong Thanks Jim Rose
• James Hamilton on opec-production-cut
• Mike Kimel on punctuality-today-v-gdp-per-capita-tomorrow-a-look-at-a-few-countries
• Coppolla comment on why-is-global-trade-so-weak
• Roger Farmer on not KEEN on chaos
• Unassuming economist on imf-research-on-inequality-a-primer Thanks Mark
• Chris Dillow on mays-challenge-to-marxism , the-democracy-problem , socializing-investment
• Robert Waldmnn on benchmarks-model-and-hypotheses Thanks Mark
• Daniel Little on what-is-conceptual-history Thanks Mark
• Tim Harford on big-decision-ahead-just-roll-the-dice
• Menzie Chinn on imf-world-economic-outlook-october-2016
• Greg Jericho on imf-report-in-the-new-normal-of-the-post-gfc-world-sideways-is-the-new-up
• Jason Furman on the niew view of fiscal policy and its application Thanks Brad
• William Cline etal on lessons-decades-lost-economic-challenges-and-opportunities-facing-japan Thanks Brad
• David Glasner on rational-expectations-or-the-road-to-incoherence
• Mike Callaghan on Protectionist-spectre-looms-over-IMF-and-World-Bank-meetings
• Croaking Cassandra on boosting-exports-the-exchange-rate-really-matters
• Timothy Taylor on what-do-we-know-about-angel-investors , sorting-out-patent-trolls 
• Simon Wren-Lewis on very-serious-people-and-deficit

General

• Peter Dorman on antisemitism-and-anti-zionism-again
• Doverbeach on melissa-moschella-on-conjugal-union-what-marriage-is-and-why-it-matters
• Caleb Gardner on marine-parks-and-fishery-management-whats-the-best-way-to-protect-fish
• Lord Keynes on debunking-postmodernism-and-the-regressive-left-101
• Evita March on dont-feed-the-trolls-really-is-good-advice-heres-the-evidence

Climate

• David Appell on again-about-word-denier
• moyhu on reanalysis-index-up-0047-in-september , templs-surface-temperature-down-012
• and Then Theres Physics on thinking-like-a-planet
• Skeptical Science on sensitivity-training , doe-charts-why-climate-doom-gloom-not-needed 
• Arctic Sea Ice blog on the-2016-melting-season-in-images
• Rabett Run on chart-of-year
• Ricky Road on our-record-warmth-pointing-out-the-obvious
• Critical Angle on carbon-sequestration-in-basalts
• Tamino on xtreme-denial-2

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• astroturf-patient-advocacy-group-pushes-to-keep-drug-prices-high
• its-not-about-the-snobbery-its-all-about-reality-at-last-i-finally-understand-hatred-of-middlebrow
• the-never-admit-error-syndrome-and-the-fundamental-attribution-error
• did-colombia-really-vote-no-in-that-peace-referendum
• michael-lacour-vs-john-bargh-and-amy-cuddy
• the-dogs-and-the-stat-dogs
• its-ok-to-criticize
• note-to-reporters-if-theres-no-report-theres-no-study
• Geoff Cumming on one-reason-so-many-scientific-studies-may-be-wrong
• Kaiser Fung on if-you-are-practicing-your-power-pose-stop-now , data-is-the-next-frontier-of-equal-rights

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• some-suggested-reading-for-october
• No Hesitations on machine-learning-vs-econometrics-i
• Marc Bellamare on lagged explanatory variables and the estimation of causal effects Thanks Mark 

Dianne Coyle ( book reviews + quirky)

• not-so-nobel , more-on-the-economics-nobel-prize , corruption-with-chinese-characteristics
• Andrew Gelman on DJ Taylor and the windsor faction

vox wonk

• flexibility-new-hires-earnings-during-recession
• trade-policy-affects-firms-input-and-output-choices
• crisis-proof-services
• what-big-data-tells-us-about-real-income-growth
• what-we-really-know-about-global-financial-safety-net
• advanced-economies-progress-dismal-and-dazzling
• multinational-firms-and-tax-havens
• regulating-banks-maturity-risk-quantifying-gains-or-losses
• how-not-build-state-evidence-colombia
• geographic-expansion-banks-and-funding-costs-new-evidence
• how-quantitative-easing-works
• globalisation-and-anti-globalisation-voters-evidence-germany
• geographic-expansion-banks-and-funding-costs-new-evidence
• africa-s-trade-finance-market-facts-and-challenges
• piketty-s-housing-capital-results-new-us-facts