Around the Traps 1/5/15

Time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Greg Jericho on china-the-economic-behemoth-gives-australian-mining-a-glimmer-of-hope , crisis-rent-its-now-impossible-for-most-poor-families-to-find-a-home
• The Kouk on mr-abbott-s-binge-on-government-debt , the-rba-and-that-overvalued-aussie-dollar
• Michael Reddell on whither-the-inflation-target
• Mark the Ballot on steady-as-she-goes
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-silly-lefties-oppose-Senate-reform
• Fabrizio Carmingnani on why-the-federal-budget-is-a-textbook-policy-dilemma
• Ross Gittins on super-ignore-it-and-miss-seeing-youre-being-bled , resources-boom-not-done-yet
• Andrew Elder on expecting-unexpected , barrie-cassidy-queers-pitch
• The Piping Shrike on the-new-regionalism-another-update
• John Quiggin on loaves-and-fishes-again , going-early

Northern America

• Doverbeach on Hillary, mudsill theory and abortion , that times can be blind , post oral arguments at Scotus Marriage round up
• Kruggers on nobody-said-that, poverty-policy-truths
• Calculates Risk on a-comment-on-house-prices-real-prices-and=price-to-rent-ratio-in February , employment-cost-index-increases-07-in-Q1
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-fomc-snoozer , fed-watch-data-note-1
• James Hamilton on economy-stalls-in-the-first-quarter
• David Beckworth on about-that-dual-mandate , why-fed-will-raise-interest-rates-this
• Timothy Taylor on stiffness-in-joints-of-us-economy , the-share-of-women-and-other-patterns-in-the-1% , the-us-as-debtor-economy
• Brad De Long on let-me-strongly-dissent-from-ben-bernankes-claim-that-the-critical-objective-of-recovery-viewed-in-the-proper-metrics-is-bei , let-me-strongly-agree-with-ben-bernanke-on-the-wall-street-journal-editorial-page-it-is-and-has-long-been-a-clown-show
• John Robertson and Ellie Terry on signs-of-strengthening-wage-growth

Europe

• Simon Wren-Lewis on mediamacro-myth-6-2013-recovery , mediamacro-myth-7-strong-recovery , mediamacro-myth-8-employment-growth, mediamacro-myths-summing-up , chaos-theory , myths-reply-to-tony-yates
• ProGrowth Liberal on morning-in-america-and-camerons-productivity-pessimism
• Tim Harford on the-truth-about-inequality
• Chris Dillow on economics-for-politicians , a-good-election-to-win , why-im-voting-green , serious-politics
• Kruggers on austerity-and-british-inflation
• Tony Yates on tax-hike-bans-wtf-time-for-fiscal-councils , mediamacro-myths-the-third-way
• Kruggers on austerity-and-british-inflation
• Bill Mitchell on the slowest recovery in modern history has just slowed down again
• Colm McCarthy on mody-on-creditor-impunity
• Philip Lane on icelands-crisis-and-recovery-facts-comparisons-and-the-lessons-learned
• Jim Rose on swedosclerosis-and-the-british-disease-compared-19502013

Asia

• Maged Mandour on arab-world-towards-bipolarity
• Arash Falsiri on iran-behind-conciliatory-veil
• Matt Schiavenza on nepals-predictable-tragedy
• Cechetti and Schoenholtz on residential-real-estate-in-china-the-delicate-balance-of-supply-and-demand Thanks Mark
• Jeromie Cohen-Setton on the-trans-pacific-partnership
• Noah Smith on free-trade-aids-growth-even-though-some-people-lose

Wonk

• Brad De Long on just-what-are-the-risks-that-alarm-ken-rogoff , must-read-robert-skidelsky-debating-confidence-fairy
• Robert E Hall on the macroeconomics of persistent slumps  Thanks Brad
• Simon Wren-Lewis on received-wisdom-in-macroeconomics , the-wrong-kind-of-political-economy
• Kruggers on vsps-versus-mses
• Nick Rowe on the-mechanics-of-exchange-and-non-market-clearing-prices , when-i-really-learned-comparative-advantage
• Noah Smith on economists-need-to-give-up-on-overused-signaling-fad , a-little-disruption-can-cause-a-big-economic-shock
• David Beckworth on a-partial-solution-to-income-inequality
• Menzie Chinn on what-remains-of-the-high-policy-uncertainty-lagging-investment-thesis
• Progrowth Liberal on lowballing-estimates-of-potential-output
• Timothy Taylor on the-vat-and-consumption-taxes
• David Glasner on roger-and-me
• Mark Thoma on romer-on-growth-theory-and-work-that-is-scientifically-unjustifiable , assessing-the-effects-of-monetary-and-fiscal-policy

General

• Noah Smith on guns-dont-kill-people-labor-kills-people
• The Conversation on xplainer-why-do-some-breast-cancers-come-back
• Spencer England on jeff-jacoby-on-drug-prices
• Timothy Taylor on the-status-of-online-of-learning-in-higher-education
• Lord Keynes on karl-marxs-life-1861-1870
• Tanya Hill on the-pillars-of-creation-a-glimpse-into-how-stars-are-born
• Doverbeach on Milman and the anthropology of marriage
• Nathaniel Powell on why-military-interventions-fail
• Matt Hayward and William Ripple on most-large-herbivores-now-face-extinction-our-study-shows
• David Cheshire on take-care-challenges-medical-relief-teams-face-after-disaster
• Adam Chandler on what-happened-to-isiss-leader
• Nick Gruen on professionalism-as-tyranny-a-liberationist-fantasy

Climate

• Peter Christoff on on-these-numbers-australias-emissions-auction-wont-get-the-job-done
• The Conversation on explainer-was-the-sydney-storm-once-in-a-century
• Then there's physics on lomborg-science , how-many-times-do-we-have-to-do-this , matt-ridley-on-coal
• David Appell on an-surprising-temperature-recontrstruction , some-big-adjustments-to-uahs-dataset , remarkable-changes-to-uah-data , on-errors-in-datasets
• Skeptical science on omborg-detailed-citation-analysis , climate-hiatus-doesnt-take-heat-off-global-warming , overlooked-evidence-gw-may-proceed-faster-than-expected
• Tamino on graphs-by-the-dozen , slowdown-skeptic
• Rabett run on scheduled-for-publication-in-energy-and-environment
• Real Climate on the-return-of-the-iris-effect 
• Eric Steig on how-long-does-it-take-antarctica
• Tas van Hommen on melting-moments-a-look-under-east-antarcticas-biggest-glacier
• Andrew King on englands-set-to-swelter-through-a-rash-of-record-hot-years

Andrew Gelman ( mainly Stats)

• eccentric-mathematician
• whats-important-thing-statistics-thats-not-textbooks
• carl-morris-man-out-of-time-reflections-on-empirical-bayes
• good-mediocre-bad-p-values
• there-are-6-ways-to-get-rejected-from-plos-1-theft-2-sexual-harassment-3-running-an-experiment-without-a-control-group-4-keeping-a-gambling-addict-away-from-the-casino-5-chapter-11-bank
• general-problem-noninformatively-derived-bayesian-probabilities-tend-strong
• Kaiser Fung on gelman-speed-read

Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics)

• introductory-statistics-for-data-science
• videos-for-eviews-9
• introduction-to-applied-econometrics
• reading-for-merry-month-of-may
• Which of these classes should I take?
• Roger Farmer on the-unit-root-of-matter-is-it-demand-or-supply
• Nick Rowe on var-vs-wtf

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + Book Reviews)

• aggregating-is-not-adding-up , ephemeral-value-and-everlasting-rubbish , lies-damned-lies-statistics-and-gdp
• Doverbeach on Marriage roundup , Books and culture
• Jim Rose on book-review-child-poverty-in-new-zealand-by-jonathan-boston-simon-chapple

Vox wonk

• central-bankers-supervisors-bandwagon-effect
• death-and-media-asymmetries-infectious-disease-reporting-during-health-transition
• effects-top-tax-rates-superstar-inventors
• effects-top-tax-rates-superstar-inventors
• coming-defaults-greece
• measuring-public-panic-great-financial-crisis
• commodity-booms-bust-evidence-1900-2010
• workers-earnings-risks-evidence-200-million-observations
• asymmetric-information-and-imperfect-competition-lending-markets
• tilting-playing-field-multinational-firms-and-preferential-market-access
• insurance-extended-families
• assessment-state-world-economy

Deniers will NEVER believe in evidence

I must confess I hate being proved right on this but climate denialists will NEVER admit being wrong and continually bring up things which have being examined to death.
Here is Then There's Physics examines another attempt by denialists to 'prove temperatures have not risen.

Pathetic.
Lets add TAMINO

Scott McIntyre

Scott McIntyre was sacked by SBS for making 'offensive remarks on twitter.
See HERE and HERE.

He is a commentator mainly on football and specialises in Asia. He is very good at this job.

So when he talks about brave 'deeds' done by Anzacs such as 'summary execution, widespread rape and theft' in Egypt, Palestine and Japan he is getting it straight from the horses mouth so to speak.
Indeed he was in a very unique position to know about what people in those countries think about such occurrences.(This is possibly why he did not change his views when asked by SBS.)

If there are people out there who do not think some ,not all or even a lot. of Australian soldiers did not do things such as this then they have never studied war.

That Malcolm Turnbull rang SBS and told them of the tweets and demanded action is strange behaviour. That SBS responded to this is reprehensible.

Are SBS denying the fact that some soldiers did indeed perpetrate such acts? Their actions say yes.

War is the 'best' example of how evil human beings are and all nations soldiers of all nations do evil things in war. Some even justify it by saying it is payback. The USSR certainly did when invading Germany in WW2.

To say no Australian soldier has NEVER been involved in such occurrences is simply fanciful.

THIS came in late. As did THIS

Emissions Reduction Fund. Did it work like Greg Hunt said it did?

Greg Hunt has said the ERF was sensational and Australia will be well below our Kyoto targets.
(However he has been caught out in talking  PORKIES )

How does this really look.

Some information on it first. Here is some MORE

 PETER CHRISTOFF doesn't agree .
Nor does HARRY CLARKE.
Nor does the CLIMATE INSTITUTE
Nor does TOM WESTLAND
Nor does Lenore Taylor
HUGH SADDLER was always sceptical

Simon Wren-Lewis demolishes Austerity in the UK

Simon Wren-Lewis is in fire given their national election in early May.
THIS is a good short but sharp piece on how austerity has not helped the UK recovery. THIS then follows

Around the Traps 24//4/15 Anzac day Edition

Time for Around the Traps. No football this weekend but social activities on Saturday so updating on Sunday.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy 

• Ken Parish on elferink-ups-the-ante
• Andrew Elder on sweating-small-stuff
• Greg Jericho on if-joe-hockey-wants-to-cut-company-tax-smart-way-to-do-it , exuberant-housing-market-poses-delicate-rates-dilemma-for-rba
• Jim Rose on has-new-zealand-been-in-deflation-since-2012 , australian-and-new-zealand-inflation-rates-adjusted-for-new-goods-and-quality-bias-of-1-5
• The Kouk on inflation-joins-jobs-housing-commodity-prices-on-the-upside , iron-ore-set-to-deliver-18-billion-tot-he-budget-bottom-line , poor-white-trash-becomes-national-treasure
• John Quiggin on waiting-for-the-fallout-australia-and-return-of-the-patrimonial-society , loaves-and-fishes, negative-gearing , rethinking-tax-policy-for-australia
• Amy Maguire on gallipoli-could-never-define-australia-war-did
• Thom Mitchell on coalition-set-grilling-lomborg-funding-leaks-cast-doubt-claims
• John Daly on labors-superannuation-tax-policy-needs-more-bite Thanks Steve from Brisbane
• Michael Redell on in-many-ways-id-rather-not-write-this  Thanks Mark
• Andrew Lynch on federalism-at-stake-if-4b-is-cut-from-schools-and-hospitals

Northern America

• Edward Lambert on is-real-gdp-at-potential
• James Hamilton on hitting-the-feds-targets 
• Doverbeach on what part of living fetus do you not understand Loretta Lynch
• Davis Altig on what-the-weather-wrought
• Livio De Matteo on the-federal-deficit-a-long-term-view
• Calculated Risk on a-few-comments-on-march-existing-home-sales , comments-on-new-home-sales
• David Beckworth on was-monetary-policy-too-loose-during-the-housing-boom
• Kruggers on aca-airbrushing
• Timothy Taylor on americans-led-by-democrats-get-friendlier-with-free-trade
• Kenneth Thomas on moving-goal-posts-on-aca-success

Europe

• Simon Wren-Lewis on from-seats-to-governments-uk-general-election-arithmetic , uk-mediamacro-myths-an-introduction, mediamacro-myth-1-2010-britain-faced-financial-crisis , greece-of-parents-and-children-economists-and -poiticians , snp-distortions-again , mediamacro-myth-3-2007-boom , a-criticism-of-ifs , mediamacro-myth-4-immediate-necessity , putting-party-before-country , if-libdems-hold-balance
• Kruggers on notes-on-greece , blurry-fiscal-hindsight
• Chris Dillow on heartless-clueless
• Timothy Taylor on why-did-sweden-of-all-places-abolish-its-century-old-inheritance-tax , what-about-eu-single-market
• Tony Yates on the-uk-election-consensus-that-we-are-all-ok-with-the-new-mighty-boe
• Philip Lane on expert-commission-increasing-investment-in-germany
• Francesco Saraceno on the-blanchard-touch 
• Antony Green on how-the-uks-electoral-system-may-disadvantage-the-conservatives-on-7-may
• JP Koning on plumbing-depths-of-effective-lower-bound  Thanks Mark
• Tim Harford on the-economists-manifesto

Asia 

• Matt Shiavenza on saudi-airstrikes-intensify-yemens-humanitarian-crisis
• Brad De Long on must-read-justin-fox 
• Menzie Chinn on currency-manipulation-the-rmb-and-misalignment-yet-again

Wonk 

• Chris Dillow on note-on-laffer-curves , bonuses-productivity , the-knowledge-problem
• Tony Yates on john-taylor-and-the-thesis-that-taylor-rule-deviations-caused-the-global-financial-crisis
• John Quiggin on lockes-theory-of-just-expropriation
• Kruggers on crowding-in-and-the-paradox-of-thrift , the-stability-two-step , airbrushing-austerity
• David Beckworth on it-takes-regime-shift-to-raise-economy
• Bill Mitchell on IMF-Labour market regualtions do not undermine potential growth
• Dan Crawford on do-economic-crises-reflect-crises-in-economics-2
• David Glasner on what-is-the-historically-challenged-rule-worshipping-john-taylor-talking-about
• Tony Yates on rosengren-a-big-day-for-the-raise-the-inflation-target-campaign 
• Nick Rowe on deficit-trageting-vs-debt-targeting
• Noah Smith on wonks-give-up-on-economic-model-to-explain-everything
• Menzie Chinn on foreign-reserve-accumulation-tails-off
• Nick Gruen on neoclassical-economics-what-is-it-good-for
• Roger Farmer on beyond-1950s-economic-theory
• Kruggers on choose-your-heterodoxy-wonkish

General 

• Timothy Taylor on snapshots-of-global-military-spending , the-data-revolution-and-economic-research
• Doverbeach on first do no harm if X kill the patient , marriage roundup
• Jonathan Ariel on the Armenian genocide lest we forget
• Colin Tatz on 100-years-on-australias-still-out-of-step-on-the-armenian-genocide
• Hans-Lukas Keiser on join-the-dots-between-gallipoli-and-the-armenian-genocide
• Lord Keynes on karl-marxs-life-1818to1841 ,  marxs-life-1842to1844 
• Jim Rose on fractions-of-the-population-that-died-in-world-war-i

Climate

• Hotwhopper on wildfires-add-to-atmospheric-co2 , not-so-fast-with-that-so-called-hiatus
• Brave new climate on sa-nuclear-fuel-cycle-royal-commission-update
• Skeptical science on permafrost update , lomborg-detailed-citation-analysis
• Frank Jotzo and Haoward Bamey on report-calls-for-emissions-cuts-but-plays-down-the-opportunities
• Dan Smith on climate-change-and-security-here
• Real Climate on an-online-university-course-on-the-science-of-climate-science-denial
• Emily Atkin on insurance-climate-change-disaster-relief
• The conversation on explainer-the-models-that-help-us-predict-climate-change
• Matt King on shrinking-antarctic-has-us-skating-on-thin-ice 
• John Quiggin on lomborg-review-repost-from-2005
• Ted Genoway on what-climate-change-doing-texas-cattle-ranch
• Mathew England on the-climate-hiatus-doesnt-take-the-heat-off-global-warming
• Jon Abraham on changes-in-water-vapor-clouds-amplifying-warming
• Harry Clarke on emissions-reduction-fund-insufficient-to-hit-Kyoto-targets
• Tamino on oklahoma-not-ok
• Rabett run on march-gave-us-warmest-12-months-in-row
• Timothy Taylor on manufacturing-up-pollution-down-how

Andrew Gelman ( Mainly Stats) 

• predictwise
• bayesian-data-analysis-in-ecology-linear-models-r-bugs-and-stan
• feather-bathroom-scale-kangaroo
• instead-worrying-multiple-hypothesis-correction-just-fit-hierarchical-model
• vice-chairman-of-surgery-at-columbia-university-sez-garcinia-camboja-it-may-be-the-simple-solution-youve-been-looking-for-to-bust-your-body-fat-for-good
• political-attitudes-social-environments
• statistical-significance-practical-significance-interactions
• Statistical analysis on a dataset of a population
• Kaiser Fung on nyt-likes-new-aa-study-why-i-am-not-convinced , methodology-used-in-the-aa-paper 
• Plotly blog on time-series-graphs-eleven-stunning-ways-you-can-use-them
• Cloud Wei on scatterplots 

Genial Dave Giles (Econometrics)

• edmond-malinvaud-tribute-to-his-contribution-to-econometrics

Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews) 

• the-joy-of-gdp-and-beyond , non-anachronistic-inflation , debt-no-brainers-and-no-nos
• Doverbeach on books and culture
• Tim Harford on paying-to-get-inside-a-restaurant
• The coversation on hubble-in-pictures-astronomers-top-picks
• Mark Thoma on can-we-predict-happiness

Vox wonk 

• types-ez-convergence-nominal-real-and-structural
• explaining-dearth-private-investment
• how-immigrants-and-job-mobility-help-low-skilled-workers
• role-trade-credit-financing-international-trade
• rethinking-macroeconomic-policy-introduction
• basel-s-countercyclical-capital-buffer-third-nation-issue
• value-vs-growth-stocks-normal-and-crisis-times
• debt-supercycle-not-secular-stagnation
• secular-stagnation-us
• the-preferences-of-fomc-members
• lenders-incentives-avoid-fire-sales
• female-executives-and-gender-wage-gaps
• why-risk-hard-measure

Sydney's weather and the ABC

Sydney copped a pasting over the past few days although other areas in the Hunter and the Central Coast had it worst.

I have to say apart from about 6 hours of no electricity and the same for the internet we got off scot free. A candle light dinner with some friends over was different.
Changes we made to the property  helped enormously with all the rainwater we got.

The ABC came to the fore again as it always does in emergencies. If there is one thing you always do it is to listen the the ABC under such circumstances.

 Most people trust the ABC way above any other media outlet much to the chagrin of the latte sipping reactionaries around. No commercial media outlet can match the ABC when an emergency occurs and it isn't hard to figure out why. They do not have to worry about ratings only help the people of the local area they are transmitting to. and that they did very very well.

Another nail in the coffin of classical ecoonmics

We have more research from the IMF on business investment. Kruggers makes comment and obviously will do it far better than I.

The research shows things that affect demand have had the most significant on business investment. Namely household deleveraging and fiscal consolidation.

The business confidence fairy is nowhere to be seen.

One of the authors is Daniel Leigh who was responsible for the demolishing of  the Alesina and Agdana hypothesis of expansionary austerity.

Those who champion classical economics have no evidence to support their ideology  if they ever had. Never mind those policies brought Hitler to power!

World War 1 was much much different to World War 2

We are coming into the 'celebration' of Gallipoli.

I though I would make the quite obvious point World War 1 was so very different to World War 2.

Germany was a democracy. Indeed the Social Democrats had command of the lower house. they were more radical than the Liberals in the UK for example.
If we speculate on an ending of the war where the US did not enter then it would have been a draw.
Even if Germany won the world would not have changed all that much.
Austria.Hungary would have had to change and one suspects Turkey would have as well with the young turks acting anyway.


World War 2 was different in that Germany clearly was not a democracy. It was a one party state.

People might want to speculate about what would have happened to the world if the US did not enter the war in 1941 but they rarely recognise the fact Germany did not have the resources to win a world war. This is clearly shown in the Wages of Destruction by Adam Tooze.

A number of people advised Roosevelt to let Germany and the USSR fight a war of attrition that no country could win and then take over both counties but he unwisely did not take this advice.

Around the Traps 17/4/15

It is time for Around the traps again.
Will attempt to update on Sunday

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie, Oy,Oy,Oy

• Mark the Ballot on aggregated-polling-update
• Greg Jericho on colin-barnetts-gst-rhetoric-is-finding-blame-for-was-shambolic-budget , stuck-in-low-global-growth-and-india-overtaking-china-is-this-the-new-normal
• The Kouk on should-the-anti-vaccination-crowd-be-paid-to-immunise-their-children , is-the-interest-rate-cutting-cycle-over
• Peter Martin on superannuation-at-last-hockey-takes-aim-at-Peter-Costello
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-discordant-polls-but-no-real-change
• Nick Gruen on lest-we-forget-that-woolworths-are-the-fresh-food-people-troppo-competition
• Jim Rose on average-tax-rates-on-consumption-investment-labour-and-capital-in-australia-and-new-zealand-1959-2011
• Max Chalmers on australians-still-confused-about-proportion-asylum-seekers-who-are-genuine-refugees

Northern America

• Brad De Long on bruce-bartletts-complete-history-of-the-laffer-curve-from-ibn-khaldun-to-ronald-reagan
• Menzie Chinn on how-much-more-dollar-appreciation
• Mark Thoma on secular-stagnation-the-long-view
• Dan Crawford on why-you-should-be-afraid-the-next-recession-is-likely-to-include-wage-deflation
• Steve Roth on national-debt-since-when-is-the-fed-the-public
• Brad De Long on todays-must-must-read-matthew-yglesias-a-chart-obamacares-critics-have-a-hard-time-explaining
• FRB Cleveland on Do energy prices drive the long term inflation expectations of households  Thanks Mark
• Kenneth Thomas on oh-look-the-uninsured-rate-fell-again
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-march-housing-starts , key-measures-show-low-inflation-in-march
• Carola Binder on on-bernanke-and-citadel
• Livio Di Matteo on fiscal-ships
• Docerbeach on she had a name it is Aurora

Europe

• Pro-Growth Liberal on jeffrey-sachs-feeble-defense-of-david cameron
• Chris Dillow on the-problem-with-promises
• Gregory Connor on new-working-paper-on-the-restructuring-and-recovery-of-the-irish-financial-sector
• Francesco Saraceno on what-structural-reforms  Thanks Mark
• Jonathan Portes on welfare-savings-and-incapacity-benefits
• Philip Lane on a-new-start-for-the-eurozone-dealing-with-debt
• Simon Wren-Lewis on osbornes-failure

Asia

• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-chinese-outwards-mercantilism-the-art-and-practice-of-bundling
• Stefan Danniger on structural-reforms-can-help-japans-post-consumption-tax-blues  Thanks Jim

Wonk

• David Andolfatto on in-defense-of-modern-macro-theory
• Roger Farmer on new-solutions-to-old-problems , there-is-no-evidence-that-economy-is-selfcorrecting
• Timothy Taylor ondocumenting-investment-slowdown
• Ben Bernanke on why interest rates are so low. Term premiums Thanks Mark
• Noah Smith on did-macro-theory-fail-us-in-crisis , steve-williamson-is-right-that-i-am-confused
• Tony Yates on theres-something-wolfgang-on-the-internet , who-needs-mainstream-friends-when-you-have-enemies-like-these
• Mark Thoma on sometimes-boosting-supply-requires-more-demand
• Lord Keynes on sraffian-long-run-equilibrium-prices-of-production , bernanke-summers-versus-post-keynesians
• David Glasner on jkh-on-the-keynesian-cross-and-accounting-identities , price-stickiness-and-macroeconomics
• Jermie Cohen- Setton on the-piketty-theory-controversy Thanks Mark
• Simon Wren-Lewis on confidence
• Kruggers on nonlinearity-multiple-equilibria-and-the-problem-of-too-much-fun-wonkish
• Chris Dillow on forecasting-vs-explaining
• Menzie Chinn on divergences-interest-rates-nominal-real-short-and-long
• Brad De Long on must-read-eric-lonergan-bond-bubbles-mmt-limits-fiscal-policy
• Nick Rowe on noah-vs-steve-a-suggested-interpretation

General

• John Quiggin on stop-subsidising-for-profit-education
• Sandwichman on ubi-caritas
• Timothy Taylor on moores-law-at-50 , natural-disasters-insurance-costs-vs-deaths
• Lord Keynes on foucaults-discipline-and-punish-summary
• Keith Gottschalk on what-helen-zilles-departure-means-for-south-africas-main-opposition-party
• David Singer on Islamic state morphing into global gehenna

Climate

• Hotwhopper on el-nino-on-alert-at-least-70-chance-in-2015 , watching-global-thermometer-year-to-date
• Real Climate on a-scientific-debate
• skeptical science on lacis-responds-to-koonin
• John Quiggin on Gambling-on-Climate-Change  Thanks Steve from Brisbane

Andrew Gelman ( Mostly stats)

• another-bad-chart-criticize
• why-do-we-communicate-probability-calculations-so-poorly-even-when-we-know-how-to-do-it-better
• statistical-modeling-of-citation-exchange-among-statistics-journals
• gigerenzer-logical-rationality-vs-ecological-rationality
• data-experiments-fit-scientific-research-program
• Tim Harford on cigarettes-damn-cigarettes-and-statistics

Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics)

• how-not-to-to-interpret-that-p-value
• regression-coefficients-units-of-measurement
• my-favourite-book
• my-paper-with-al-gol
• more-on-orthogonal-regression

Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)

• venetian-capitalism-1515-and-2015
• a-challenge-to-techno-euphoria
• Doverbeach on books and culture

Vox wonk

• lessons-1982-mexican-debt-crisis-greece
• economic-consequences-gender-identity
• exports-offshoring-and-pay-new-french-evidence
• economic-integration-europe-insights-new-index
• new-cepr-report-new-start-eurozone-dealing-debt
• from-constitutional-reform-to-fortified-democracy

Sinclair Davidson is at it again.

I came  to this via Steve from Brisbane,   Sinclair Davidson is again trying to show Revenue is strong for the Government.

One never looks at revenue from a nominal point of view. It always rises unless there is a long period of deflation.
You have to look at revenue as a percentage of GDP otherwise you have no understanding of how strong or weak it is.

We see from MYEFO  that tax as a % of GDP was 23.7% in the last financial year of the 'Howard' government.

Once the GFC hit Australia tax as a % of GDP has been:

• 22.1%
• 20.7%
• 20.5%
• 21.3%
• 22.2%
• 22.2%
• 22.5% (Hockey)

For a person to say revenue hasn't been the problem they are either a complete idiot or a transparent liar.

Update.

The GFC hit the world in September 2008 via Lehman Bros. Before that we simply had a credit crunch which the RBA for one thought so much of they raised rates to combat increasing inflation.

Further Update.

A person e-mailed me to say I forgot to include the whys and wherefores of the structural budget deficit. 

The PBO said this "…trends in the SBB estimates can be explained by changes in the structural levels of government receipts and payments. From the SBB peak in 2002-03 to its trough in 2011-12, the structural level of receipts excluding GST fell by around 5 percentage points of GDP. The structural level of government payments excluding GST over this period rose by around 1 percentage point of GDP and hence the SBB fell into deficit. Over the period 2011-12 to 2016-17 the structural level of receipts is expected to increase by approximately 1¾ percentage points of GDP while the structural level of payments is expected to decline by around 1 percentage point of GDP leading to the expected reduction in the structural deficit over the period of the 2013-14 budget and forward estimates years. 

Over two thirds of the 5 percentage points of GDP decline in structural receipts over the period 2002-03 to 2011-12 was due to the cumulative effect of the successive personal income tax cuts granted between 2003-04 and 2008-09. A further quarter was the result of a decline in excise and customs duties as a proportion of GDP. Significant factors driving this trend included the abolition of petroleum fuels excise indexation in the 2001-02 Budget and the decline in the consumption of cigarettes and tobacco over the period."

Something that  Judith Sloan has obviously never read or could understand.

So spending is not the cause of the structural budget deficit and tax revenues are clearly down from Howard's era.
So the Catallaxy clowns fully supported policies that led to the structural  deficit and then they complain about it when it eventuates.
Amazing quite amazing. no wonder they do not comment at other blogs.

Two issues of note.

There appears two issues coming up on the radar.

WA are whining about the GST 'handout from the Grants commission. Greg Jericho has the best piece on this thus far.For WA to get more money the parliament would have to change the legislation for the Grants commission.

Peter Martin discusses that Hockey will eventually take aim at the worse decision of the 'Howard' Government on superannuation. About time. I find myself in complete agreement with Saul Eslake.
Super should only taxed at the benefit stage and as income.

The strange case of Billy Gordon

There is a hue and cry from some quarters for Billy Gordon to resign from Parliament.

I fail to see why he should AT PRESENT.

The crimes he committed were a long time ago when he was in his youth. At present he has allegations made against him.
NO person should have to resign on ALLEGATIONS. If these allegations go to having evidence and thus he is charged and is found guilty that is a entirely different story however we appear to be nowhere near that.


The one thing I find very strange is that both women making allegations did it via the liberal party not through the police.
Why weren't these views ventilated when Gordon was a candidate in the last federal election let alone State election.

Frank Zappa

Frank Zappa was a pretty good muso and had a pretty good band. Add in Jean Luc Ponty and you get magic.

enjoy

Around the Traps 10/4/15

Time for Around the Traps again. Have not read any as I had no time so just taking articles on reputation.  I will try to update over the weekend.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Peter Martin on the-pharmacy-protection-racket-that-keep-prices-high
• The Kouk on maybe-the-rba-is-right-maybe , western-australia-s-easy-ride
• Andrew Elder on peter-hartcher-and-kindness-of-strangers , with-all-due-respect
• Greg Jericho on steady-on-with-cutting-interest-rates-it-will-fuel-a-housing-bubble-on-the-edge-of-bursting , reserve-bank-set-to-cut-interest-rates-live

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on ed-lazear-on-the-current-outlook
• Mark Thoma on is-measurement-error-a-likely-explanation-for-the-lack-of-productivity-growth-in-2014
• Edward Lambert on thought-on-e-inefficiencies , 3rd-reason
• Tony Yates on the-tea-party-wont-purify-the-market-by-tying-the-feds-hands
• Noah Smith on our-bigotry-imposes-a-high-cost-on-the-u-s-economy

Europe

• Chris Dillow on 2015/04/fear-of-freedom , a-positive-conservative-agenda

Asia

• Brian Hennessey on in China what is truth
• Abbas Milani on irans-incremental-revolution

Wonk

• James Hamilton on world-interest-rates
• Menzie Chinn on imf-world-economic-outlook-on-potential-gdp-investment
• Kruggers on trade-geography-and-microfoundations-wonkish , the-fiscal-future-i-the-hyperbolic-case-for-bigger-government , the-fiscal-future-ii-not-enough-debt , bb-and-the-permahawks
• Robert Waldmann on a-fractal-case-for-big-government
• Noah Smith on bond-bubbles, what causes recessions
• David Glasner on the-verbally-challenged-john-taylor-strikes-again
• Brad De Long on the-current-state-of-the-secular-stagnation-savings-glut-debate
• Simon Wren-Lewis on cyclically-adjusted-deficits-and-instability
• Chris Dillow on happiness-policy-growth
• Timothy Taylor on snapshot-of-trade-imbalances-rise-of-Germany
• Nick Rowe on secular-stagnation-liquidity-and-rentprice-ratios

General

• Tim Harford on online-ads-log-in-tune-out-turn-off
• Timothy Taylor on gdp-and-social-welfare-in-long-run , better-batteries
• John Quiggin on rank-delusions
• Noah Smith on fixed-mindsets
• Lorenzo on over-valued-is-the-wrong-metric-about-bubbles-housing-or-otherwise
• Simon Wren-Lewis on macro-teaching-and-financial-crisis

Climate

• John Quiggin on co2-emissions-levelling-out
• Idiot Tracker on el-nino-leans-in 
• Andy Scuce on EmmissionsAcceleration
• Skeptical science on global-warming-pause-more-politics-than-science
• Brave New Climate on tunnel-vision-at-the-climate-council
• Sandwichman on of-bathtubs-bombshells-and-boilerplate
• John Abraham on new-paper-shows-how-sensitive-ocean-biosystem-is-to-climate-change

Andrew Gelman ( Mainly Stats)

• im-political-scientist-not-psychologist
• call-bayesian-know-im-not-one
• comparison-of-bayesian-predictive-methods-for-model-selection
• can-teachers-large-online-classes-use-text-data-online-learners
• new-research-tuberculosis-mapping-control
• mistaken-identity
• a-silly-little-error-of-the-sort-that-i-make-every-day
• another-stylized-fact-bites-dust
• Kaiser Fung on surveymonkeys-unipolarity-and-i , what-popular-baby-names-teach-us-about-data-analytics

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• question-from-reader

Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)

• not-all-numbers-are-equal , the-beatles-and-class-struggle ,inequality-what-is-to-be-done , globalized-inequality

Vox Wonk

• unsecured-firm-debt-and-business-cycle
• banks-home-bias-and-public-debt-sustainability
• trilemmas-capital-flows-and-domestic-and-international-order
• price-discrimination-big-manufacturers
• catalyst-ttip-s-impact-rest
• demographic-structure-and-macroeconomy
• qe-european-style-be-bold-parsimonious
• securities-trading-and-credit-supply
• historical-look-deflation

on hols

Back on Friday. Around the Traps maybe late!

Handel

The greatest song from the greatest oratorio of all time.

Around the traps 3/4/15 Easter Edition

It is time for  Around the Traps  Easter edition. updates over out long weekend

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ken Wolf on Intergenerational-Reports-what-are-they-on-about
• Ken Parish on the-power-and-passion-of-privatisation , snatching-defeat-from-the-jaws-of-victory
• Todd Winther on by-sacking-billy-gordon-palaszczuk-has-put-her-government-on-the-brink
• Ross Gittins on lets-be-more-hard-nosed-towards-foreign-miners
• Graeme Orr on billy-gordons-past-shouldnt-end-the-queensland-government
• Amy Macguire on hunt-billy-gordon
• The Kouk on will-the-rba-pick-up-the-ball , is-there-blood-in-the-streets
• John Quiggin on rethinking-tax-policy-for-australia , handicapping-the-oz-nz-gdp-growth-race
• Jim Rose on who-has-the-smallest-anglo-saxon-welfare-state-of-them-all
• Greg Jericho on the-onus-is-on-companies-to-individuals
• Lesley Russell on the-debate-were-yet-to-have-about-private-health-insurance
• Mark the Ballot on perhaps-flat
• Andrew Elder on press-gallery-narrative-and-2015-nsw

Northern America

• David Beckworth on do-air-conditioners-explain-rise-of-the-rise-of-the-south
• Kruggers on ben-bernanke-blog-blogging , missing-deflation-and-the-argument-for-inflation
• Sandwichman on monetary-policy-bernanke-and-yellen-v-taylor
• Calculated Risk on a-comment-on-house-prices , update-private-job-creation-during-Presidential-terms
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on Fed Watch-thoughts-on-yellens-speech , fed-watch-air-pocket
• David Beckworth on ben-bernanke-and-secular-stagnation , its-already-priced-into-market
• Mark Thoma gives us Larry summers on on-secular-stagnation-a-response-to-bernanke
• Menzie Chinn on output-employment-and-unemployment-some-updated-results , march-employment-downward-revisions-and-some-sectoral-breakdowns
• John Robertson on what-seems-to-be-holding-back-labor-productivity-growth-and-why-it-matters

Europe

• Simon Wren-Lewis on greece-and-other-benefit-scroungers , a-quick-note-on-two-recoveries , economists-vs-business-leaders, silly-questions-or-silly-economics , how-can-labour-say-it-didnt-crash-the-economy
• Chris Dillow on the-other-deficit , some-election-non-issues
• Mustasfa Coban on the-rise-and-rise-of-recep-tayyip-erdogan-and-a-slide-towards-autocracy-in-turkey
• Jonathan Portes on migration-growth-and-jobs-positive-agenda
• Tony Yates on what-caused-italys-stagnation , econ-election-grumbles
• Bill Mitchell on the worst sustained productivity performance since 1948
• Kruggers on symmetric-scots , osbornia-revisited

Asia

• Dimi Reider on dimi-reider/disputes-over-foreign-funding-in-israel-mask-much-deeper-issues
• Changyong Rhee on can-abenomics-succeed-overcoming-the-legacy-of-the-lost-decades
• Paul Rogers on saudi-arabias-yemen-offensive-is-bigger-than-anyone-expected
• Micah Zenko on iran-has-been-two-years-away-from-a-nuclear-bomb-since-the-1980s
• Peter Beinart on iran-totalitarian-nuclear-talks
• Scott Lucas on iran-celebrates-historic-nuclear-deal-all-eyes-now-on-supreme-leader
• Bruce Webb on after-if-the-iran-deal-what-does-israel-do-next
• Robert Waldmann on the-iran-deal
• Barkely Rosser on the-iran-nuclear-deal
• Mohammed Ayoob on implications-of-preliminary-iranian-nuclear-deal

Wonk

• Noah Smith on a-misguided-attack-on-land-value-taxes
• Carola Binder on politicians-or-technocrats-who-splits-the-cake
• Timothy Taylor on nvest-in-vice-or-virtue , price-deflation-asset-prices-and-threats-to-growth, is-world-bank-becoming-obsolete
• Kruggers on austerity-big-and-small
• James Hamilton on oil-sands-outlook
• Chris Dillow on competition-working-conditions
• Mark Thoma on economic-journal-125th-anniversary-special-issue , central-bank-solvency-and-inflation
• Tony Yates on more-on-raising-the-inflation-target , pascal-academia-and-bernanke
• Jim Rose on the-three-lags-on-monetary-policy
• Tim Harford on highs-and-lows-of-the-minimum-wage
• Sandwichman on middle-sized-facts-vs-is-lmist
• Kruggers on liquidity-traps-local-and-global-somewhat-wonkish
• David Glasner on milton-friedman-monetarism-and-the-great-and-little-depressions
• Nick Rowe on overdrafts-with-100-reserve-banking
• Ed Dolan on deconstructing-shadowstats-why-is-it-so-loved-by-its-followers-but-scorned-by-economists thanks Mark
• Simon Wren-Lewis on do-not-underestimate-power-of-microfoundations

General

• Catherine Gegout on buhari-wins-but-the-new-president-of-nigeria-faces-an-enormous-challenge
• Menzie Chinn on some-conjectures-regarding-the-effectiveness-of-economic-boycotts
• Daniel Little on realism-and-empirical-reasoning Thanks Mark
• Lyle Shelton on changing marriage is not inevitable
• Ellis Jones on using-wikipedia-a-scholar-redraws-academic-lines-by-including-it-in-his-syllabus
• Zahd Alisa on us-airstrikes-weaken-isil-but-keep-it-as-viable-threat

Climate

• Brad De Long on lots-to-worry-about-in-climate-change
• Environment economics on adam-ozimek-wrote-john-i-appreciated-your-recent-post-in-reply-to-mine-on-carbon-taxes-ive-wri
• Real Climate on a-hypothesis-about-the-cold-winter-in-eastern-north-america
• skeptical science on Sharp-Spike-in-Sea-Level-Rise , ridley-wrong-again-fossil-fuels
• Natasha Geiling on positive-feedback-except-its-terrifying
• Joe Romm on arctic-death-spiral-sea-ice
• Roger Jones on enough-replication-police
• hotwhopper on the-evolution-of-97-conspiracy-theory
• Michael Roberts on secular-stagnation-and-discounting-climate-change Thanks Mark 
• Cameron Murray on is-climate-change-to-blame-for-outbreaks-of-mosquito-borne-disease
• Ros Pidcock on climate-sensitivity-unlikely-less-than-2c

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• bayesian-frequentist-regression-methods
• ethics-like-logistic-regression
• time-release-pedagogy
• enough-replication-police
• 5-ways-get-fired-caesars-1-theft-2-sexual-harassment-3-running-experiment-without-control-group-4-keeping-gambling-addict-away-casino-5-chapter-11
• thinking-possibility-spurious-correlation-isnt-matter-liking-pretty-much-automatic
• Kaiser Fung on yet-another-popular-nutrition-headline-doesnt-stand-up-to-scrutiny

Genial Dave Giles (Econometrics)

• econometrics-game-2015-day-1
• the-game-continues
• and-the-winners-are
• inside-econometrics-game
• april-reading

Dianne Coyle (quirky + Book Reviews)

• the-man-of-the-system , economists-hubris-surely-not, after-neoliberalism
• Doverbeach on Weekday Reading 

Vox wonk 

• mismeasuring-china-s-military-spending
• boosting-female-jobs-nordic-lessons-japan-and-korea
• precautionary-strategies-and-household-saving
• capital-control-measures-new-dataset
• eurozone-interbank-lending-market-during-global-and-ez-crises
• capital-control-measures-new-dataset
• evaluating-systemic-risk-proxies-empirically