Over the weekend we saw elections in Georgia and Japan.
Independent observers did not believe the elections in Georgia was free or fair. Unsurprisingly the pro-russian party in government 'won' the election. See HERE for example.
In Japan the PM who deliberately held an early election found the result blow up in his face. For a leading Western nation Japan really does not have a democracy. One party ,the LDP, has virtually governed the nation since the end of WW2.
All interesting
Broken Hill
Broken Hill should not have a problem with electricity Just quietly notice all those types that blamed windmills for the SA blackout are now silent on the very same issue in Broken Hill except renewables are nowhere to be seen!
Double Standards
Steve from Brisbane has an article on the double stands applied to Trump and whom ever he is running against in this case Harris. Think about this Trump said he could eliminate the USA's federal debt by using crypto currency. That is unmitigated garbage but nothing was said or reported. mostly he speaks rambling incoherence but nothing is said. He is clearly having severe cognitive problems but nothing is said.
Cricket
Holy moly. England thrashed by Pakistan and the Kiwis, the Kiwis mind you, beat India in India for the first time in a very long time. What is happening here?
The ppms batting could not cope with two spinners I simply do not rate. Neither Root nor Brook who are the best two batsmen against spin did as much as they should have. Stokes was poor both as a captain and a batsman in the last two tests.
In India Santner went bananas yet again I do not rate him at all. I reckon he would struggle in shires. The Indian batting looked very suspect and is Kholi over the hill??
Polling in the USA
People seem to miss two things of polls in the USA
It is time for Around the Traps again.
Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
OZ Climate
Northern America
Europe
Asia
Wonk
General
Climate
Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)
Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)
Vox Wonk
I am going to address a few issues that any person facing the election must contemplate but not in any order.
Economics
Trump promises to have a lot of internment camps so both legal and illegal immigrants will be deported. This would decimate GDP growth and lift wages dramatically because of the shortage of labour particularly in the agricultural industries. Think wine for example.
He wants to impose tariffs across the board mostly 10% but sometimes 20%. This would have a large effect on inflation both directly when consumer goods and also indirectly because they are intermediate goods. He also wants to impose massive tariffs on all chinese goods. Same thing here.
The other thing which would occur is the trade war which would eventuate. World trade would be in utter chaos.
Fascism
Does Trump have fascist tendencies, Of course he does. I do not think the problem is him going after opponents . He did this previously with both Clinton and Biden. They did not go forward as his A/Gs told him there was no case. Lackeys at the Justice Department may manufacture a case but they would have to get past a grand jury and then after that an actual jury. Decent lawyers would point holes in a manufactured case. Showing Trump is going after them would also get the case thrown out. Trump would be relying on people in the Justice department with no corporate knowledge. It is odds on they would make mistakes. A lot of them.
No what is important are the institutions. The Supreme court has already shown it is in by its absurd decision on Presidential immunity. The time it took to make the decision ensured Trump would never face justice and we can only assume they would make more absurd decisions to help Trump once in power. Trump could play havoc by appointing stooges for other institutions. He could get rid of TV licences for networks critical of him for example
He could set the IRS in people he does not like. Even if there is no offence the time and money involved for people marked would be high
His false electors/ voter fraud did not work last time not because he had no proof but because the margins were so large. Imagine if the result was much much tighter. Although the cases are tossed out it goes all the way to the Supreme court and guess what. Trump is 'elected'.
PACS.
I noticed the Musk PAC in favour of Trump has two adds on Harris confronting voters. To those of palestinian background it highlights her husband's jewish faith. to those of a jewish background it alleges she favours palestinians ( actually Hamas lover indirectly) overs jews. Of course this cannot be right. She is either one thing or the other not both. It is what you would expect of someone who evokes conspiracy theories that are easily disproved!
The Future
If Trump wins it means a completely different political system , think Orban not Putin, where lying is the order of the day. You are betting on the USA being more like Poland than Hungary. It is not something anyone should be betting on. If you change the system you usually do not go back to what you had previously.
Wars
Trump would allow the Israelis to kill whomever in their attempt to wipe out firstly Hamas and then Hizbullah. At present there is no end game for the 'wars'. We do know courtesy of Orban what Trump would so in Ukraine. He would stop all aid and weapons to them allowing russia to take whatever it wants. He might even leave NATO
Just remember last time there was utter chaos in the Whitehouse.
Whoopsy I forgot to mention all those large numbers of people who worked with Trump who say he should never be anywhere the white house again.
Next if it is Kelly V Trump in who is telling the truth then who was found guilty of fraud, who was in control of a company guilty of fraud, who was found guilty of sexxually assualuting a woman he said he di not. Who falsified documents so no-one would find out he had sex with a porn star four months after his wife had a son. So courts have found on at least four occasions he lied!
There is simply no choice at all if you are rational and have a brain.
No sane person believes Israel had to do something about Hamas after October7. ( Just before this just remember it was the Israeli intelligence services that enabled Hamas to be in place to begin with. That went well!)
The problem has always been in Gaza and now Lebanon is that they claim to have killed certain operatives whilst completely ignoring the innocent civilians they have killed. The only comeback they have is to query the number of people killed. They cannot in Lebanon as journalists are there unlike Gaza.
I have said previously I do not trust Hamas and I do not trust the Israeli government. As Mediawatch has pointed out the critics of Israel's approach in Gaza are large. Overseas doctors helping there, Aid organisations, palestinian journalists in Gaza etc
I fear Netanyahu does not want to stop for political reasons . He was asleep at the wheel when somehow Hamas was able to get over the border and start murdering will nilly.
It has destroyed any relationship Israel could have in the area for a long time.
Peter Dutton was interviewed on AM this morning talking about his new housing policy.
Quite a few problems. He wants to build new homes not apartments. This will merely lead to more urban sprawl. Spending on infrastructure does not overcome the negatives of urban sprawl. For example you will have a lot more traffic. It is much harder to drop the kids at school and then go to work as most work in the city. It creates a lot more pollution. Another problem is most young couple buy apartments and then move later on when they are earing more money to a house.
He says the CFMEU has caused costs to rise in building. Hang on the CFMEU are strong in building city blocks in the city and major suburbs not high rise apartments and most certainly not building houses in the suburbs.
He wants to reduce immigration but increase immigration for tradesmen. When pressed on this on what categories would reduce if overall immigration was to fall substantially under him he then said he would introduce better rules for pensioners so they could work more and thus earn more and stil lkeep the pension. Huh. Being a tradie is hard physical work. how many pensioners who were formerly tradies do you think will want to be a tradie again in their late 60s!
This policy has been ill thought through is the best one can describe this.
Elections
Before saturday the Liberals had not been in government for 23 years. That is absurd. The ALP has been in government far too long. It was a bad result!
Queensland has a state election next saturday. The ALP has had 3 successive terms and most of the last 30 years. Again that is far too long. They need to be replaced and that looks on the cards.
Interest rates
A lot of people said the unemployment figures put interest rate cuts off for some time. Labour force figures are LAGGING indicators. Moreover monthly figures are quite volatile.This ignores the fact inflation is falling both at a headline and underlying rate. Various surveys show inflation falling as well. We have a slowing economy fellahs!
Albo buying a house
Albo bought a house on the Central Coast which is close to his fiancée's parents. Here is a double standard. Liberals can make money and invest well but not ALP people. This happened to Keating in spades. Capitalism can only apply to the critics apparently.
Trump fraud
Trump tried to sell himself as working at McDonalds but get this. The franchise was closed for the day. the only 'buyers' were carefully selected trump supporters. Unbelievable
Church and politics
There is almost a tradition in the USA where politicians are allowed into churches and give political speeches. Harris di it today our time.The church ( which is people who believe in god) is different to the building to where they meet. Even so the building is supposed to be the house of God. You go there to hear the word of God and encourage each other to follow the teachings of Jesus. Listening to a politician is not part of this. It got worse with Trump as it would. In a church he not only swore he got the congregation to swear. What would a person think listening and seeing this!
