Around the Traps 4/4/25

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Bernard Keane on kpmg-exposed-dodgy-hobart-afl-stadium-report Thanks Nick
• Fei Gao and Andrew Terrey on tobacco-excise-revenue-has-tanked-amid-a-booming-black-market-thats-a-diabolical-problem-for-the-government
• Brendan Coates et al on 25-years-into-a-new-century-and-housing-is-less-affordable-than-ever
• John Hawkins and Yogi Vidyattama on we-calculated-how-much-duttons-excise-cut-would-save-you-on-fuel-and-few-will-save-as-much-as-promised
• Wesley Morgan on dutton-unveils-plan-to-force-more-gas-into-australian-market-and-expand-production-in-major-pre-election-pitch
• Ross Gittins on budget-deficit-perfection-would-be-nice , are-you-better-off-now-thats-duttons-trick-question , the-fine-print-costing-australians-a-pay-rise
• Mark the Ballot on day-5-2025-federal-election , day-6-2025-federal-election
• Intifar Chowdhury on sweet-deals-sour-times-australia-s-blind-eye-trumponomics
• Peter Dean on defence-is-shaping-up-to-be-a-key-election-issue-whether-politicians-like-it-or-not
• Sam Roggeveen on yes-australia-can-defend-itself-independently
• Mercedes Page on australia-s-foreign-policy-reckoning-time-new-white-paper
• Greg Jericho on you-never-know-what-youre-gonna-get-australians-will-have-to-wait-until-after-the-election-to-see-if-theres-a-rate-cut
• croaking cassandra on reserve-bank-bank-capital-etc
• Ketan Joshi on coalitions-ted-obrien-admits-why-gas-is-a-disaster-for-energy-prices , coalition-leans-on-absurd-gas-definition-for-fossil-subsidy-bonanza
• Roland Rajah on trump-s-tariffs-australia-hit-stick-while-our-region-was-clobbered

OZ Climate

• low-rooftop-pv-tariffs-mean-solar-houses-are-subsidising-everyone-elses-power-supply
• how-cheap-is-peter-duttons-gas-and-how-does-it-compare-to-reckless-renewables
  
• origin-backed-energy-storage-start-up-unveils-breakthrough-redox-flow-battery
  
• no-more-fossil-gasplaining-going-electric-is-past-the-tipping-point-and-guaranteed-to-slash-cost-of-living
  
• origin-chooses-not-to-tap-taxpayer-funds-for-first-year-of-eraring-coal-plants-extended-operations
  
• really-terrible-bad-location-could-triple-cost-of-pumped-hydro-project-favoured-by-lnp
  
• social-hour-at-the-gas-rodeo-why-the-market-is-broken
  
• worlds-biggest-gold-miner-signs-up-to-buy-green-power-from-was-biggest-wind-farm
  
• from-video-ezy-to-netflix-report-offers-three-easy-reforms-to-get-nem-back-to-the-future
  
• another-big-battery-joins-the-grid-as-charging-and-discharging-records-fall-across-the-country
  
• victoria-needs-at-least-another-2-gw-of-committed-capacity-before-next-coal-closure-says-state-energy-chief
  
• Tony Wood on peter-dutton-gas-power-plan-comment
• Felicity Deane on under-a-coalition-government-the-fate-of-australias-central-climate-policy-hangs-in-the-balance
• Steve Turton on torrential-rains-created-devastating-inland-seas-in-outback-queensland-soon-they-will-fill-kati-thanda-lake-eyre

Northern America

• institutional economics on american-juche
• Roger Berkovitz on democracy-and-dissent Thanks Nick
• noahopinion on understanding-americas-new-right , the-latest-episode-of-mad-king-trump , tariffs-another-american-act-of-intentional-self harm
• angry bear on why-we-shouldnt-deport-undocumented-immigrants
• Chris Bertram on trumps-war-on-immigrants-is-the-cancellation-of-free-society
• Ben Hammond on voice-of-america-took-jazz-behind-the-iron-curtain-now-its-demise-signals-the-end-of-us-soft-power
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-donald-trump-law-firms-arrogant
• Zack Beauchamp on trump-arrest-student-tufts-rumeysa-ozturk , trump-tariff-loomer-kennedy
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on paul-clement-vs-donald-trump-big-law-firms
• Shirin Ali on trump-executive-order-voting-machines-fail
• Andrew Prokop on trump-retribution-targeting-israel-critics-biglaw-weissmann
• Menzie Chinn on james-hamilton-are-consumer-sentiment-studies-a-good-measure-of-the-economy
• croaking cassandra on farewell-to-orr, not-much-parliamentary-scrutiny
• Kruggers on balance-of-payments-primer-part-i Thanks Angry Bear
• Timothy Snyder on trump-greenland-us-morally-wrong-strategy-disastrous
• Markus Wagner on these-3-arguments-are-part-of-the-long-game-in-trumps-trade-wars
• Jonathan Lemire on trump-liberation-day-tariffs-election
• Julia Preston on in-trumps-dragnet
• Fintan O'Toole on shredding-the-postwar-order
• Brad De Long on tariffs-by-chatbot-trumps-trade-policy-as-AI-generated-farce
• Jeet Heer on trump-academic-purge
• Richard Partington on trumps-idiotic-and-flawed-tariff-calculations-stun-economists
• Niven Winchester on new-modelling-reveals-full-impact-of-trumps-liberation-day-tariffs-with-the-us-hit-hardest
• Eric Levitz on trump-tariffs-reciprocal-trade-war-why-explanation-nostalgia
• the conversable economist on thoughts-on-the-trump-tariffs
• Tyler Cowen on yours-truly-on-the-trump-tariffs-at-the-free-press
• Kruggers on trump-goes-crazy-on-trade , will-careless-stupidity-kill-the-economy

Europe

• Basil Germond on russia-has-most-to-gain-from-black-sea-ceasefire-but-its-marginal-and-ukraine-benefits-too
• Colin Flint on maritime-truce-would-end-a-sorry-war-on-the-waves-for-russia-that-set-back-its-naval-power-ambitions
• Aurelien Mondon on marine-le-pens-victim-narrative-is-already-being-constructed-but-there-are-ways-to-stop-her-criminal-conviction-benefitting-her
• Mainly Macro on last-weeks-spending-cuts-were-not-fault-of-the-OBR
• Isaac Chotiner on what-marine-le-pens-conviction-means-for-french-democracy

Asia

• Adam Simpson on thousands-are-feared-dead-in-myanmars-quake-trumps-usaid-cuts-will-cause-even-more-unnecessary-deaths
• Mark O'Neil on breaking-houthi-resolve-why-trump-s-strikes-won-t-work-any-better-biden-s
• Alvin Camba on chipping-away-controls-singapore-s-challenge-china-linked-companies
• Sanchari Ghosh on india-s-support-chagos-sovereignty-speaks-volumes
• Shijie Wang on yes-some-china-s-educated-youth-just-asserted-sovereignty-over-australia
• Manny Maung on aftermath-myanmar-s-earthquake-reports-emerge-junta-attacking-its-own-people
• Sean Turnell on might-myanmar-s-earthquake-be-catalyst-political-change
• Doris Liew on can-malaysia-s-semiconductor-industry-stream-upwards

Wonk

• the blue stocking on the-bluestocking-361-five-years-on Thanks Nick
• performative bafflement on recycling-is-fake Thanks Nick
• philosophy bear on how-to-change-the-world-a-lot-with-a-little Thanks Nick
• the conversable economist on a-view-from-the-imf-on-nuances-of-industrial-policy, the-ai-market-ecosystem ,the-ocean-related-economy
• Mark Pierce on what-matters-sense-history
• noahopinion on how-brazil-built-a-world-beating-aircraft-manufacturer
• Hussein Nadim on post-911-counterterrorism-failure
• Tyler Cowen on new-issue-of-econ-journal-watch-14

General

• Alexander Howard on the-great-gatsby-at-100-the-jazz-age-novel-that-helps-explain-trumps-america
• Laura Driessen on the-best-space-telescope-you-never-heard-of-just-shut-down
• Claudia Reyes on astronomers-listened-to-the-music-of-flickering-stars-and-discovered-an-unexpected-feature

Climate

• Tim Harford on the-selfish-guide-to-decarbonising
• Jason Chin on reliable-science-takes-time-but-the-current-system-rewards-speed
• Melanie Pill on paris-without-trump-win-planet
• David Appell on new-record-low-for-arctic-sea-ice
• ocean acidification on metabolomic-and-physiological-analyses-of-two-picochlorophytes-from-distinct-oceanic-latitudes-under-future-ocean-acidification-and-warming
• Timothy Neal on global-warming-of-more-than-3-c-this-century-may-wipe-40-off-the-worlds-economy-new-analysis-reveals
• open mind on let-the-idiocracy-begin , excess-heat-in-the-usa
• Rakesh Gupta on what-donald-trumps-dramatic-us-trade-war-means-for-global-climate-action

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• the-unbuilt-bench-experimental-psychology-on-the-verge-of-science
  
• the-reciprocal-betrayals-of-saul-bellow-and-paul-meehl
  
• where-sports-statistics-and-literature-meet-comparing-david-fleming-to-bill-james
  
• who-could-have-imagined-it-the-ipcc-working-group-1-folks
  
• plagiarist-usc-celebrity-doctor-whats-he-been-up-to-lately
  
• theres-no-accounting-for-taste-whodunnit-edition
  
• ai-needs-specialization-to-generalize
  
• exposing-omitted-moderators-explaining-why-effect-sizes-differ-in-the-social-sciences
  
• why-i-no-longer-use-the-term-cargo-cult-science
  
• Freakometrics on how to predict the future
• Nham Tran on scientific-misconduct-is-on-the-rise-but-what-exactly-is-it
• Danny Kingsley on show-your-working-how-the-open-science-movement-tackles-scientific-misconduct
• statschat on bogus-polls-are-bogus-even-for-the-good-guys , tariff-co-incidence
• Kaiser Fung on know-your-data-45-permanence

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• trade-wars-and-fragmentation-insights-new-escb-report
  
• ais-power-grows-so-does-our-workday
  
• abolishing-daylight-saving-time-easy-setting-permanent-time-not
  
• not-all-housing-cycles-are-created-equal-macroeconomic-consequences-housing-booms
  
• living-wages-and-government-contracts
  
• trade-shocks-and-labour-market-outcomes-interplay-between-firm-exposure-and-labour
  
• sources-differences-okuns-law-between-advanced-economies-and-emerging-markets
  
• impact-rent-controls-lessons-catalonia
  
• inflation-wall-street-versus-main-street
  
• eu-supply-chain-tectonics
  
• us-reciprocal-tariffs-upending-global-trade-policy-landscape
  

Tariffs are horrible

 Trump loves tariffs. He is a mercantilist. Only economically illiterate people believe in mercantilism. It means you have either never heard of or do not understand ricardo's law of comparative advantage. We have seen this in practice. The era of trade liberalisation has seen trade grow quite strongly. In Australia we have seen this up quite close since we started to lower out high tariff wall. Australia has become a richer and stronger economy.

Let us go back to the USA. When the manufacture a car a lot of its inputs come from overseas mainly Canada and Mexico. This is because those inputs have lower cost there than in the USA. If tariffs are raised or created then import prices will rise. Imported car prices will rise but US car prices will rise as well because their costs rise as well.

What's more it won't increase employment either. .Employment in manufacturing might rise BUT there are many more jobs in the tertiary industries. Think sales, repairs, design etc. Employment will fall because less cars will produced because of the price rises.

It is the ultimate lose-lose situation!

Only a person of limited intelligence would implement such a policy. Autocrats are attracted to mercantilism. Why I will leave to others.

Whoopsy I forgot to mention that tariffs are simply an indirect tax on imports and thus are quite regressive. Yet again Trump hurts his own supporters

A really good post on gas

 David Leitch at renew ecopnomy has a very informative article on gas. It is a must read!

I am waiting on the Trump disastrous tariffs to be announced.

Kaiser Fung destroys doge

 Master Statistician Kaiser Fung examines doge in a statistical way and finds errors.

It isn't long but highly educational.

Maybe we have a good example of the Peter Principle!

Dutton's gas proposals

 Peter Dutton has made a number of proposals regarding gas. There are scant research behind them. Rather amusingly after saying he would not release any modelling until later he demanded the government should release modelling on their proposals!

Okay here are some articles.

• dutton-unveils-plan-to-force-more-gas-into-australian-market-and-expand-production-in-major-pre-election-pitch
  
• we-calculated-how-much-duttons-excise-cut-would-save-you-on-fuel-and-few-will-save-as-much-as-promised
  
• how-cheap-is-peter-duttons-gas-and-how-does-it-compare-to-reckless-renewables
  
• opposition-misses-key-opportunity-to-deliver-cost-of-living-relief
  

I confess not to understanding the logic here. The two highest costs for energy are nuclear and then gas. He is saying he will cut the price of gas however gas has high extraction costs. Gas producers will have lower profits. Their incentive is to sell most overseas where they gain much higher prices. Price controls are very strange if you say you believe in market forces!

The argument against this is that gas producers are making super normal profits and the industry is not competitive however we have not heard this from Dutton.

See Tony Wood for late article

Around the Traps 28/3/25

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Patrick Cummins on how-fixing-one-flawed-tax-on-the-banks-could-leave-australias-budget-billions-of-dollars-better-off
• Gary Mortimer on accc-finds-australias-supermarkets-are-among-the-worlds-most-profitable-but-doesnt-accuse-them-of-price-gouging
• Richard Moore on europe-compounding-trump-aid-vandalism-australia-must-take-different-path
• Daniel Flitton on aukus-trump-values-driven-leadership-unpacking-dutton-s-foreign-policy-address
• Rachel Wilson and Sofia Kesidou on 4-key-changes-you-may-have-missed-in-the-new-school-funding-agreement
• Greg Jericho on australia-federal-budget-2025-graphs-tax-cuts-economy-ndis-deficit
• John Hawkins on tax-cuts-are-coming-but-not-soon-in-a-cautious-budget
  
• Stephen Bartos on the-2025-budget-has-few-savings-and-surprises-but-it-also-ignores-climate-change
• Ross Gittins on the-government-is-timid-and-uninspired the budget is a perfect fit , budget-to-give-economy-push-next
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-coalition-support-slides
• Willian van Caenegem on non-compete-clauses-make-it-too-hard-to-change-jobs-banning-them-for-millions-of-australians-is-a-good-move
• Henry Cutler on budget-delivers-cheaper-medicines-and-more-bulk-billing-but-leaves-out-long-term-health-reform
• Greg Earl on budget-2025-trump-proofing-labor-s-poll-chances
• David Andrew on australia-may-no-longer-be-deputy-sheriff-but-its-reliance-on-the-us-has-only-grown-deeper-since-2000
• Mark the Ballot on late-march-update

OZ climate

• Joe Hinchcliffe on proposed-nuclear-power-plants-in-queensland-could-not-access-enough-water-to-prevent-a-meltdown-research-finds
• Zoe Richards on synchronised-bleaching-ningaloo-and-the-great-barrier-reef-are-bleaching-in-unison-for-the-first-time
• Adam Morton on australians-deserve-answers-on-climate-before-they-vote-here-are-five-things-we-still-dont-know
• why-solar-and-batteries-are-now-the-engine-room-of-the-energy-transition
  
• australia-should-hitch-its-solar-wagon-to-the-china-juggernaut
  
• explainer-why-are-wind-turbines-so-big-and-could-smaller-be-better
  
• renewable-target-scrapped-as-clp-goes-all-in-on-ageing-gas-plant-and-is-warned-of-blackout-risks
  
• election-watch-duttons-nuke-and-gas-plan-relies-on-the-death-of-australian-industry-and-its-smelters
  
• andrew-forrest-plans-one-of-australias-biggest-solar-farms-in-push-for-real-zero-at-iron-ore-mines
  
• how-cheap-is-peter-duttons-gas-and-how-does-it-compare-to-reckless-renewables
  

Northern America

• Unherd on how-elon-musk-lost-the-plot Thanks Nick
• Brad De Long on rescuing-americas-economy-from-trump
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-birthright-citizenship-impoundment-donald-trump
• institutional economics on the-second-trump-administration-and-late-stage-maoism
• noahopinion on the-corporate-feudalism-thing-wont-work , if-and-when-you-live-in-a-dictatorship-how-will-you-know
• the conversable economist on the-north-american-trade-bloc-at-risk
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-mar-a-lago-accord-march-22-2025
• Victor Abramowicz on there-method-trump-madness
• Kevin Quigley on can-mark-carney-truly-connect-with-canadian-voters-canada-will-now-find-out
• Zack Beauchamp on trump-deportations-gang-pro-palestine-spech-power-grab, signal-leak-trump-vance-hegseth-foreign-policy
• Dahlia Lithwick on trump-deportations-el-salvador-courts-immigration
• Billy Coriher on north-carolina-supreme-court-riggs-griffin-voting-rights
• new deal democrat on employment-is-historically-very-weak
• Jennifer Hawkins on why-is-the-us-group-chat-on-houthi-attack-plans-so-concerning-a-military-operations-expert-explains
• Fred Kaplan on signal-group-chat-hegseth-vance-waltz-trump-administration
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on trump-boasberg-constitutional-crisis-latest-doj-king
• Laurence Tribe on trump-us-constitution
• Kruggers on incompetent-or-evil-a-false-dichotomy Thanks Brad
• Julian Sanchez on trump-deportations-tren-de-aragua-alien-enemies-due-process
• Ben Mathis-Lilley on signal-war-plans-group-chat-trump-hegseth-waltz-signalgate
• Jeffrey Goldberg on trump-administration-accidentally-texted-me-its-war-plans , signal-group-chat-attack-plans-hegseth-goldberg
• Cristian Farias on how-john-roberts-has-empowered-a-lawless-presidency
• Aymann Ismail on donald-trump-news-ice-immigration-student-rumeysa-ozturk
• Abdallad Fayyad on mahmoud-khalil-detention-pro-palestinian-arrests-deportations
• Nitish Pahwa on trump-blames-signal-leak-scandal-privacy-tech-america

Europe

• Mainly Macro on labours-strategic-error-on-tax , why-cant-we-do-fiscal-policy-in-grown-up-way
• Christian Carfair on how-germany-remade-itself-after-the-nazis

Asia

• Chietigj Bajpayee on world-goes-regional-india-thinks-global-perhaps-its-detriment
• Robert Walker and Hilaman Palaon on indonesia-s-ev-gamble-green-surface-dirty-underneath
• Herve Lemuhieu on could-india-be-third-wheel-g2-world
• Thomas Shugart on awful-lawful-china-s-australia-flotilla
• Roland Rajah and Ahmed Albayrak on made-vietnam-or-backdoor-chinese-exports
• Melissa Tyler on raisina-dialogue-triumph-fence-sitters
• Cynthia Meboob on cutting-through-narrative-what-china-s-deep-sea-cable-cutter-really-signals
• Alexandre Davant and Grace Stanhope on philippines-walks-tightrope-chinese-aid

Wonk

• David Sessions on defending-the-professional-managerial-class Thanks Nick
• Ecume on the professional managerial class has no future Thanks Nick
• Gail Wilson on peer-review-is-meant-to-prevent-scientific-misconduct-but-it-has-its-own-problems
• Tim Harford on an-alternative-take-on-trumps-favourite-word
• Erin O'Brien and Justine Coneybear on trouble-at-tesla-and-protests-against-trumps-tariffs-suggest-consumer-boycotts-are-starting-to-bite
• Alex Tabarrok on what-follows-from-lab-leak , argentinas-doge
• Yvonne Breitweeiser-Feiser on the-icc-showed-its-might-by-arresting-rodrigo-duterte-its-reputation-will-take-longer-to-fix
• the conversable economist on the-impracticality-of-henry-georges-land-tax , the-benefits-and-dangers-of-decision-making-by-algorithm
• Brad De Long on keynesianism-unhyphenated-draft
• Isaac Chotiner on is-turkeys-declining-democracy-a-model-for-trumps-america

General

• Matt Cohen and Matt Hunt on americans-cant-stop-aussie-kickers-on-college-football-fields-so-theyre-trying-in-court
• Carolina Rodriguez on how-often-should-i-wash-my-exercise-clothes

Climate

• Real Climate on wmo-update-on-2023-4-anomalies
• open mind on recent-global-temperature-acceleration-or-surge , questions-and-answers
• skeptical science on China-10TW-wind-solar-2060
• Andrew Freedman on renewables-record-growth-solar-wind-power

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• the-piranha-principle-what-does-it-mean-exactly
  
• can-i-teach-integral-calculus-before-differential-calculus
  
• we-have-here-two-papers-that-are-critical-of-the-culture-of-academic-economics-where-can-they-be-published
  
• routine-bread-and-butter-run-of-the-mill-junk-science-from-2015
  
• lets-analyze-how-we-analyze
  
• on-that-claim-about-how-does-energy-impact-economic-growth
  
• solve-a-simpler-version-of-the-problem
  
• new-yorker-magazine-demonstrates-a-naive-faith-in-social-science
  
• statschat on bogus-tesla-polls , ebikes-for-brains
• freakometrics on the multi-armed bandit problem
• Kaiser Fung on the-dangerous-story-first-data-analysts

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• the good science project on book-review-unreliable-bias-fraud Thanks Nick

Vox Wonk

• fat-tails-and-lots-zeros-nature-international-investment
  
• value-values-and-role-awareness
  
• structural-transformation-public-space-high-street-changes-and-populism
  
• lost-translation-ais-impact-translators-and-foreign-language-skills
  
• riders-storm-effects-regulating-platform-work
  
• what-we-can-learn-koreas-demographic-meltdown
  
• mining-insights-underground-economy
  
• asymmetric-sanctions-russian-individuals
  
• inflation-expectations-and-anchoring-during-disinflation-episode-evidence-euro-area
  
• twitter-sentiment-and-stock-market-movements-predictive-power-social-media
  
• extreme-heat-hospital-crowding-and-hidden-health-costs-climate-change
  
• bridging-investment-gap-eu
  
• occupational-recommendations-and-job-finding
  
• nordic-model-and-income-equality-myths-facts-and-policy-lessons
  

signalgate

 Here it is:

• trump-administration-accidentally-texted-me-its-war-plans
  
• signal-group-chat-attack-plans-hegseth-goldberg
  

An added bonus Kruggers on incompetent-or-evil-a-false-dichotomy  thanks Brad