Around the Traps 8/8/25

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ross Gittins on its-hard-not-to-hate-investors-when-the-property-game-is-so-unfair , roundtable-will-fix-nothing-unless-we-can-all-park-our-self-interest , pc-wants-our-big-mining-companies-to-pay-more-rent
• Liz Allen on australias-divorce-rate-is-the-lowest-its-been-in-50-years-why 
• Jason Nassios and James Giesieke on some-taxes-are-inefficient-at-any-level-even-modest-reforms-will-help 
• croaking cassandra on still-waiting-for-a-governor , reserve-bank-bits-and-pieces
• Jennifer Parker on australias-new-frigate-deal-with-japan-plugs-a-few-critical-holes-but-doesnt-come-without-risks
• Felicity Deane on economists-want-a-carbon-price-comeback-but-does-australia-have-the-political-courage
• croaking cassandra on thinking-about-the-mpc

OZ climate

• tasmania-libs-defy-convention-to-pull-trigger-on-marinus-link-fid-and-bury-their-own-political-future 
  
• its-not-as-sexy-as-solar-but-energy-productivity-could-be-a-superhero-of-the-transition 
  
• energyaustralia-focuses-on-storage-as-retail-margins-crimp-its-wholesale-gains 
  
• why-australias-biggest-coal-state-is-so-excited-about-having-the-worlds-most-powerful-battery 
  
• physical-world-has-changed-the-contract-world-needs-to-catch-up-nelson-unveils-draft-market-reform 
  
• another-wind-project-emerges-to-tap-into-proposed-copperstring-line-opening-up-north-queensland 
  
• price-is-wrong-pc-advice-has-good-intentions-but-risky-outcomes-for-renewables 
  
• physical-world-has-changed-the-contract-world-needs-to-catch-up-nelson-unveils-draft-market-reform 
  
• wind-and-solar-droughts-have-a-bigger-impact-on-prices-than-on-reliability 
  
• australia-leads-the-world-on-rooftop-solar-now-it-needs-to-catch-up-with-how-to-manage-it
• Felicity Deane on economists-want-a-carbon-price-comeback-but-does-australia-have-the-political-courage
• Catherine de Fotenay on were-not-minimising-the-cost-of-the-net-zero-transition-these-reforms-will-help
• Graham Readfearn on glacier-shrinking-australia-remote-heard-island-sounds-alarm
• Daniela Ceccarelli et al on worlds-biggest-coral-survey-confirms-sharp-decline-in-great-barrier-reef-after-heatwave
• Anna Malos and Anna Skarbek on australia-can-hit-an-85-emissions-cut-by-2035-if-government-and-business-seize-the-moment

Northern America

• institutional economics on end-of-the-road-for-the-taco-trade
• Andrew Prokop on trump-jobs-economy-bls-fired
• Brendan Ballou on trump-appointments-emil-bove
• noahopinion on will-data-centers-crash-the-economy
• the conversable economist on federal-statistics-and-false-economies , the-us-auto-industry-evolving-not-evaporating
• Tyler Cowen on in-which-ways-is-the-bls-biased , why-the-tariffs-are-bad
• Kruggers on the-economics-of-smoot-hawley-20 , trump-is-getting-desperate-and-dangerous , the-paranoid-style-in-american-economics , about-that-stock-market , the-emperors-new-trade-deal
• newdeal democrat on recession-watch-for-economically-weighted-ism-indexes-and-residential-construction-spending-continues , the-contradictory-signs-from-initial-and-continuing-jobless-claims-what-do-they-mean
• Jeet Heer on gaza-american-democracy-test
• Brad De Long on yes-kevin-hassett-would-be-a-very-bad-fed-chair
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-gallup-poll-popularity-trust
• Jonathan Lemire on trump-ukraine-gaza-economy
• Walter Shaub on weaponizing-the-watchdog-trump-ingrassia
• noahopinion on immigrant-memoir-comics

Europe

• Thomas Farzi on slovenia's nato rebellion Thanks Nick
• Karen Scott on why-uk-recognition-of-a-palestinian-state-should-not-be-conditional-on-israels-actions
• David Kirichenko on fibre-optic-drones-reshape-ukraine-s-technological-war
• Tyler Cowen on solve-for-the-equilibrium
• David Frum on show-ukraine-tim-mak-adrian-karatnycky
• stumbling and mumbling on the-political-communication-problem

Asia

• Kvetch on on-gaza Thanks Nick
• Paul Rodgers on uk-and-france-pledges-wont-stop-netanyahu-bombing-gaza-but-donald-trump-or-israels-military-could 
• Chietigj Bajpaee on shine-has-come-modi-trump-bromance-perhaps-india-us-relationship
• Amra Lee on air-dropping-food-into-gaza-is-a-smokescreen-this-is-what-must-be-done-to-prevent-mass-starvation
• David French on middle-east/israel-must-open-its-eyes-defeating-hamas-does-not-require-starving-a-single-child
• Shaheli Das on what-message-will-modi-take-if-he-attends-sco-summit-china 
• Sharon Thawayney on how-brics-could-become-global-south-s-climate-voice 
• Nicholas Moriesen on united-states-china-or-russia-who-writes-moral-code-artificial-intelligence
• noahopinion  on what-can-india-do-to-industrialize
• Ilan Noy on soaring-food-prices-prove-the-gaza-famine-is-real-and-will-affect-generations-to-come
• Erin Cook on prabowo-s-indonesia-draws-opposition-cartoon-pirates
• Zack Beauchamp on israel-gaza-aid-cut-off-strategy-humanitarian-disaster
• Leonie Fleischmann on israels-plans-for-a-full-occupation-of-gaza-would-pave-the-way-for-israeli-resettlement
• Shirvin Zeinelzadah on where-next-for-khamenei-after-war-irans-supreme-leader-is-faced-with-difficult-choices
• Sean Turnell on myanmar-s-other-war-battle-financial-control

Wonk

• Sean Illing on in the shadow of nietzsche and dostoesky Thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on whose-job-is-safe-from-ai
• Brad De Long on notes-on-substack-these-days , apple-computers-different-drummer-AI-path-considered
• Niven Winchester on new-trump-tariffs-early-modelling-shows-most-economies-lose-the-us-more-than-many 
• the conversable economist on shifting-markers-of-adulthood
• Greg Jericho on donald-trumps-war-on-statistics-is-an-authoritarian-attack-on-democracy-and-countries-like-australia-should-call-it-out
• Anne Applebaum on sudan-civil-war-humanitarian-crisis
• Elizabeth Finkel on trump-and-kennedy-are-destroying-global-science-even-einstein-questioned-facts-but-theres-a-method-to-it
• Matteo Boccia on sudan-america-china-take-very-different-tacks

General

• Konstantine Panegyres on the-great-mass-of-waters-killed-many-thousands-how-earthquakes-and-tsunamis-shook-ancient-greece-and-rome
• Mathew Sharpe on francis-bacons-essays-explore-the-darker-side-of-human-nature-400-years-on-they-still-instruct-and-unnerve
• Adam Smith on jane-austen-was-a-satirist-why-isnt-she-treated-like-one
• Laura Driessen on move-over-mercury-chiron-is-in-retrograde-what-even-is-chiron

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on the-new-doe-climate-report 
• open mind on sea-level-mis-information-from-doe , sea-level-rise-in-nyc , u-s-government-makes-old-lies-new-again
• Nigel Stork and Adam Sharp on butterflies-beetles-and-other-tropical-insects-are-being-devastated-by-climate-fuelled-el-nino-events
• David Appell on arctic-sea-ice-extent-nearing-12-month-low
• skeptical science on new_research

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• measurement-error-in-the-strike-zone 
  
• you-can-cite-peer-reviewed-research-in-support-of-almost-any-claim-no-matter-how-absurd 
  
• should-you-place-more-trust-in-scientists-if-they-are-intellectually-humble 
  
• a-paper-by-dorothy-bishop-on-the-replication-crisis-from-1990 
  
• survey-statistics-bls-jobs-report 
  
• two-philosophers-reportedly-lie-about-a-position-taken-by-another-philosopher 
  
• beyond-averages-measuring-consistency-and-volatility-in-nba-player-and-team-offense 
  
• real-examples-are-good-mile-run-example
  
• statschat on where-are-they-now-asthma , official-statistics
• Marc Bellamare on a fools errand
• Kaiser Fung on one-solution-to-omnys-math-problem

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

vox wonk

• explaining-firm-level-reactions-macro-shocks 
  
• why-globalisation-needs-leader-hegemons-alignment-and-trade
  
• violent-conflict-and-cross-border-lending
  
• risks-new-international-trade-landscape
  
• transmission-liquidity-shocks-through-non-bank-financial-intermediaries-evidence
  
• childhood-friendships-and-gender-equality-paradox-education
  
• global-shocks-institutional-development-and-trade-restrictions-learning-crises
  
• china-shock-hits-germany
  

Ukraine

 I saw Richard Hass on the teeve the other night. He made the valid point what Trump needs to do is not impose tariffs or more sanctions but give Ukraine all the resources to win the war. That is the only way Putin will ever come to the peace table.

Biden was far too timid moresso when Ukraine was on the march against Russia. That was when the USA should have upped their military aid to Ukraine however Biden was always wary of Putin doing what he threatened ( which he never did.)

We should be honest no-one thought Russia could accumulate the casualties it has given the experience of the Soviet union in Afghanistan. When you add in how poorly the russian economy is it becomes bewildering.

Putin is allowed top pound Ukraine with missiles etc and nothing comes in retaliation. If Ukraine had the resources to fight back strongly then Purin's cost/benefit ratio would change bigtime!

Prelude to the Ashes

 Well the England/India serries finished in spectacular fashion. In short it was a good but not great series. This is because the bat dominated the ball way too often. I have never seen a series where the ball was not swinging a lot of the time. combine this with flat tracks and wella too much in favour of batting.

However let us look at England. They need bowlers to bowl over 90 mph to succeed on Australia. Archer can do that. Wood who will be fit will do that. I saw Carse get to 98 mph in NZ so if fit he can do that. When I watched Overton at the oval he rarely got above 685 mph but McCullum said he got over 90 mph on the second last day.

The  problem the poms have is none of these bowlers are consistent in their speeds. Both Archer and Carse were barely above Woakes speed in the 4th test. There is no point in winning the first test and then losing the rest because your fast bowlers are not up to it.

Our top and middle order hare highly susceptible to fast bowling. Think about Archer, Wood, Carse backed up by Atkinson and Stokes. Hmm. If fit they would beat us however this english summer has shown most will be bowling low 80s. Remember the last three tests are very close and our bowlers don't lack fitness!

If I were the poms I would expect to lose in Brisbane (it is a day/nighter) and maybe draw in Adelaide and win in Perth, Melbourne and Sydney.

Their batting is strong and most will like batting here and they are likely to have a small tail.

I would favour Australia because of the poms problems with fitness ( our batsmen will murder bowling in the low 80s) together with their expertise on bowling friendly pitches.

I have two worries. the first is our aging bowling lineup will think they are still fast and bowl according instead if line and length.

The second is the poms work out the fast bowing fitness problems. The Poms wil win any test when 3 bowlers are bowling over 90 mph and the other two are in the high 80s. Remember the windies bowlers were faster than ours.

We have to wait until november

The march on the Harbour bridge

 A lot of people marched on sunday to protest what Israel is doing in Gaza.

Sunday was a miserable day. Pouring rain at times and clear the next thus i was expecting perhaps 10k because of this. Getting over 100k was unbelievable however it merely confirms a pattern throughout the Western world. Their behaviour in Gaza is losing support bigtime.

I might add how can Hamas win if Palestine is recognised if Hamas cannot be part of any government. Answer it cannot.

what do we call the USA

 Alas I have to go to a funeral today so little time to write.

What do we have in the USA? Trump takes legal action against Media companies, legal firms, Universities even though his advisors must know most of these claims are baseless. The reason he does this is because the law takes time to process and even though the claims are baseless by the time the courts rule the costs are large.

He wants to say who should be employed, how they are employed,  what the curriculum is, what the news is etc.

He approves mergers BUT he has control of what the final company can do.

Employment numbers come out he does not like so he fires the head of the BLS. ( We should note Trump says interest rates should be cvut by 3% BUT also says the economy is booming. Yes it does not compute.)

Some people in spite of godwin's law say the similarities with Nazi Germany are eerie. Not me Trump is merely copying Hugo Chavez.

In his  mafiaising of the USA he ddoes not seem to realise capitalism needs the rule of law not one persons whim.

Convicted criminals never understand capitalism 

Around the Traps 1/8/25

 It is time again for Around the Traps .

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• croaking cassandra on two-sets-of-willis-comments-and-a-plausible-story , they-didnt-tell-her , the-treasury-file-note-of-the-24-february-meeting , orr-quigley-and-willis-31-july-edition
• Patrick Commins on reform-gst-debate-jim-chalmers 
• Ruth McHugh-Dillon on is-us-beef-safe-to-eat-how-worried-should-we-be-about-mad-cow-disease-growth-hormones-and-fatty-meat 
• Ross Gittins on the-abs-just-had-to-bin-some-statistics-heres-what-went-wrong , roundtable-when-they-say-modelling-grab-your-bulldust-detector , what-if-people-just-want-better-jobs-not-more-stuff
• institutional economics on when-virtue-is-its-own-reward-the-july-RBA- minutes 
• Greg Kaplan et al on who pays income tax Thanks Nick
• Donald Rothwell on gaza-australia-government-should-sanction-israel-recognise-palestine-state
• Christoph Nedopil on chinas-greening-steel-industry-signals-an-economic-reality-check-for-australia
• Greg Jericho on australia-inflation-figures-numbers-data-rba-interest-rates
• Stella Huangfu on tsunami-warnings-are-triggering-mass-evacuations-across-the-pacific-even-though-the-waves-look-small-heres-why 
• Alex Robson on the-company-tax-regime-is-a-roadblock-to-business-investment-heres-what-needs-to-change
• Filipe Porto on brazil-s-new-visa-rule-sends-diplomatic-message-australia

OZ Climate

• turbine-fire-sparks-statewide-wind-farm-inspection-blitz
  
• its-a-big-task-australias-green-bank-rolls-out-record-finance-but-says-more-needs-to-be-done 
  
• wind-output-smashes-through-10-gw-barrier-for-first-time-on-australias-main-grid 
  
• electrification-is-not-just-about-getting-off-gas-efficiency-matters-too 
  
• plunging-cost-of-solar-batteries-ensure-renewables-remain-lowest-cost-option-for-australia-csiro-says 
  
• angry-nuclear-lobby-backs-off-as-landmark-smr-deal-confirms-csiros-bleak-cost-estimates 
  
• nsw-seeks-another-500-mw-of-new-firming-capacity-to-fill-gaps-from-ageing-coal-plants 
  
• we-can-do-that-aemo-says-power-system-can-be-run-on-100-pct-renewable-energy 
  
• bowen-seeks-more-wind-solar-and-storage-as-he-supersizes-capacity-investment-scheme-to-meet-82-pct-renewables-target
  
• price-peaks-have-an-outsize-impact-on-generation-costs-maybe-its-time-afor-reserve-batteries 
  
• bad-bidding-behaviour-big-batteries-the-dominant-force-as-daily-electricity-prices-pushed-to-record-highs 
  
• big-cost-falls-in-china-made-offshore-wind-turbines-offer-hope-for-first-australian-projects 
  
• networks-on-notice-as-transmission-costs-double-and-consumer-led-competition-closes-in 
  
• aemo-tweaks-and-renames-isp-scenarios-with-ev-hydrogen-and-households-among-big-movers 
  
• two-energy-projects-two-vastly-different-approaches-to-community-engagement
  
• Ella Vines on barnaby-joyce-wants-australia-to-abandon-net-zero-but-his-5-central-claims-dont-stack-up
• Joechem Kempf on south-australias-algal-bloom-may-shrink-over-winter-but-this-model-suggests-it-will-spread-to-new-areas-in-summer
• Andrew Watkins et al on as-us-climate-data-gathering-is-gutted-australian-forecasting-is-now-at-real-risk
• Magnus Soderberg on 5-reasons-why-wind-farms-are-costing-more-in-australia-and-what-to-do-about-it

Northern America

• Mark Stern on republicans-regret-trump-columbia-shakedown-law-precedent , trump-birthright-citizenship-supreme-court-ice-maternity-ward , trump-doj-lying-supreme-court-pam-bondi
• Tim Harford on the-many-tragedies-of-ending-us-aid 
• Asha Rangappa on obama-trump-immunity-epstein-files
• Kruggers on understanding-interest-rate-policy , the-limits-of-sprawl , i-coulda-made-a-better-deal , fossil-fool , the-media-cant-handle-the-absence ,caracas-on-the-potomac
• Michael Cohen on trump-polling-disapproval-rating-immigration-economy
• Dahlia Lithwick on epstein-story-trump-conspiracy-theories-real-scandal
• Brad De Long on a-note-on-the-closing-of-the-path-US-hegemony , our-chao-monkey-dementia-suffering-cognitively -addled-president-and-the-bureau-of-labour-statistics
• James Hamilton on economy-back-to-growing
• Fred Kaplan on trump-ukraine-gaza-iran-war-ceasefire-nuclear 
• Quinta Jurecic on the-route-to-a-plum-judicial-appointment 
• Thomas Williams on george-floyd-summer-2020-riots
• David Cole on umpires-no-more-supreme-court 
• Nicole Narea on columbia-brown-harvard-trump-settlement-antisemitism
• the conversable economist on refocusing-us-health-care-spending
• calculated risk on pce-measure-of-shelter-unchanged-at-41
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-trumps-taylor-rule , downside-surprise-in-employment-levels , august-1-2025-a-day-that-will-live-in-statistical-infamy , is-it-seasonal-adjustment
• new deal democrat on a-near-recession-july-2025-jobs-report

Europe

• Timothy Rymack on hitler-attacked-central-banker

Asia

• Ali Mamouri on ceasefire-talks-collapse-what-does-that-mean-for-the-humanitarian-catastrophe-in-gaza 
• Donna Weeks on japan-after-upper-house-election-what-comes-next-who-s-next-line 
• Virdika Utama on indonesia-discount
• Nicole Narea on gaza-famine-israel-us-hamas-war
• David Remnick on israels-zones-of-denial
• Petra Alderman on thailand-and-cambodias-escalating-conflict-has-roots-in-century-old-border-dispute
• noahopinion on xi-jinping-is-the-main-thing-holding-back-china
• Amra Lee on air-dropping-food-into-gaza-is-a-smokescreen-this-is-what-must-be-done-to-prevent-mass-starvation
• Abhinandan Kumar on when-everything-geopolitics-nothing
• Rayman Yaacob on air-force-modernisation-southeast-asia-deterrence-or-danger
• Joshua Keating on gaza-hunger-crisis-aid-israel-starvation
• Isaac Chotiner on how-the-israeli-right-explains-the-aid-disaster-it-created
• Emma Graham-Harrison on the-mathematics-of-starvation-how-israel-caused-a-famine-in-gaza
• Amin Saikal on the-muslim-world-has-been-strong-on-rhetoric-short-on-action-over-gaza-and-afghanistan
• Saira Bano on trump-s-25-india-tariffs-could-backfire-strengthen-china-india-ties

Wonk

• as difficult as rare on peter-thiel-in-locksley-hall Thanks Nick
• Marcus Colla on how-autocrats-tech-billionaires-are-disintegrating-history
• Edward Holmes on how-conspiracy-theories-about-covids-origins-are-hampering-our-ability-to-prevent-the-next-pandemic
• the conversable economist on global-trade-imbalances-an-imf-perspective
• noahopinion on the-only-thing-worse-than-sweatshops
• Hilman Palaon on how-low-earth-orbiting-satellites-can-help-innovation-meet-inclusion

General

• Jacqueline Stephens and Jill Carr on what-is-chikungunya-virus-and-should-we-be-worried-about-it-in-australia 
• Milad Haghani and Zahri Shahhusseini on tsunami-warnings-are-triggering-mass-evacuations-across-the-pacific-even-though-the-waves-look-small-heres-why 
• Ian Whittaker on the-hunt-for-planet-nine-why-there-could-still-be-something-massive-at-the-edge-of-the-solar-system 
• 
  

Climate

• David Appell on have-renewables-decreased-electricity , posts-by-onymous-guy
• skeptical science on renewables-electricity-prices-eu , new_research
• real climate on the-endangerment-of-the-endangerment-finding , are-direct-water-vapor-emissions-endangering-anyone

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• whats-the-purpose-of-a-theorem-hint-its-not-what-you-think
  
• trump-and-epstein-biden-and-afghanistan-and-the-permission-structure-of-public-opinion 
  
• israel-palestine-and-political-opinion-field-inversion
  
• survey-statistics-adjusting-for-interest-in-politics 
  
• using-hierarchical-modeling-to-get-more-stable-rankings-of-gene-expression 
  
• fitting hierarchical models in genetics
• atheism-is-like-a-point-null-hypothesis-and-other-thoughts-on-religion
  
• Marc Bellamare on survey ordering and the measurement of welfare 
• Kaiser Fung on say-goodbye-to-soccer , our-digital-breadcrumbs , omny-needs-a-facelift , omnys-math-problem

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• reading-muscle
  
• Ange Milinko on morbid-symptoms Thanks Nick
• stoat on an introduction to chinese philosophy
• Tyler Cowen on the-price-of-victory

Vox wonk

• macroprudential-policy-banks-build-countercyclical-capital-buffer-when-there-headroom 
  
• firms-family-friendly-policies-and-fertility 
  
• projected-cost-russian-aggression
  
• alliance-open-trade-how-counter-trumps-tariffs
  
• impact-2025-us-tariff-announcements-uk-firms 
  
• post-pandemic-disinflation-low-sacrifice-high-prices
  
• under-pressure-central-bank-independence-meets-blockchain-prediction-markets
  
• time-be-strategic-how-public-money-could-power-europes-green-digital-and-defence
  
• under-pressure-central-bank-independence-meets-blockchain-prediction-markets
  
• labour-market-disparities-second-generation-immigrants
  
• task-based-returns-generative-ai-evidence-central-bank
  
• gender-neutral-economics-can-no-longer-be-default
  

The June quarter CPI

 Well the June quarter CPI was released yesterday. Here are two reactions.

• australia-inflation-figures-numbers-data-rba-interest-rates
  
• inflation-slows-again-but-is-it-enough-for-the-reserve-bank-to-cut-interest-rates 

I am definitely in the Greg Jericho camp. The RBA has been both slow and timid.

They should move to a neutral rate as soon as possible. The author is now the Westpac chief economist!

Once there they need to determine how expansionary fiscal policy is and then adjust accordingly.

IF you read the ABS release then you wil lrealise the November release will be when Australia moves into the rest of the world and we get a monthly CPI release which is the equivalent of our quarterly releases. About damned time!