Around the Traps 19/9/25

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Wesley Morgan on fossil-fuel-expansion-or-pacific-security-albanese-is-learning-australia-cant-have-both
• Ian Kennish on with-new-png-defence-treaty-australia-is-delivering-on-its-rhetoric-about-trust-at-a-critical-time
• Michael Shoebridge on albanese-s-narrow-path-keeping-trump-happy-aukus
• Mick Ryan on 3.5-gdp-defence-budget-why-how-what
• Ross Gittins on were-going-up-in-financial-world-but-no-one-noticed , ai-much-ado-about-something-that-one-day-might-matter
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-liberal-crisis
• Mark the Ballot on polling-update

OZ Climate

• gas-power-cut-to-a-single-megawatt-as-pv-and-batteries-reshape-the-grid
  
• rooftop-solar-installs-to-beat-targets-with-the-biggest-coal-states-leading-the-way
  
• prudent-for-australia-to-plan-for-2-3oc-temp-rise-says-grim-climate-assessment
  
• renewables-could-be-fast-tracked-and-koalas-saved-by-setting-aside-most-biodiverse-lands-study-finds
  
• australia-cuts-red-tape-and-fees-for-offshore-wind-projects-in-bid-to-slow-exodus
  
• why-solar-battery-hybrids-are-the-new-go-to-technology-for-the-green-energy-transition
  
• australia-to-invest-1-1-billion-to-unlock-low-carbon-liquid-fuels-for-jets-ships-and-machines
  
• turbine-blade-at-newly-commissioned-wind-farm-in-nsw-bent-in-half-by-storms
  
• wind-energy-faces-existential-challenge-as-solar-and-battery-hybrids-beat-it-on-costs
  
• lower-cost-batteries-and-market-changes-sink-proposed-pumped-hydro-project-in-nsw
  
• apocalyptic-climate-risk-report-demands-75-pct-emissions-cut-and-urgent-decarbonisation
  
• the-3-reforms-needed-to-exploit-bigger-home-batteries
  
• albanese-sets-emissions-target-of-62-to-70-pct-after-accepting-cca-advice-and-acting-on-the-science
  
• too-cheap-to-contain-and-too-big-to-ignore-the-electrotech-revolution-that-will-sweep-away-fossil-fuels
  
• electricity-futures-prices-show-no-signs-of-coal-closures
  
• not-counting-co2-we-know-what-is-happening-and-what-needs-to-be-done-only-you-know-if-we-did-it
  
• Mehdi Seyedmahmoudian on cheap-power-to-the-people-could-shift-the-dial-for-renewables-in-the-regions
• Andrew Wadkins et al on is-this-australias-climate-wake-up-call-official-report-reveals-a-hotter-harder-future-if-we-dont-act-now
• Johanna Nalau and Mark Howden on climate-change-is-causing-ever-more-disruption-can-australias-new-adaptation-plan-help
• Graham Readfearn on australia-climate-risk-assessment-prompts-misinformation-from-usual-suspects
• Lisa Cox and Nick Evershed on heatwaves-caused-more-than-1000-deaths-in-australia-over-four-year-period-study-finds
• Flavio Menezes on from-batteries-to-ev-chargers-australia-and-nz-need-these-3-fixes-to-hit-net-zero-at-less-cost
• Elianor Gerrard and KImberly Crofts on battle-for-the-bush-ignore-the-noise-most-farmers-like-renewables
• Tony Wood on the-albanese-government-has-finally-set-a-2035-climate-course-and-its-a-mission-australia-must-accept
• Rod Sims on cut-emissions-70-by-2035-theres-only-one-policy-that-can-get-us-there

Northern America

• Blake Dodge on why-thiel-fellows-win Thanks Nick
• noahopinion on the-bluesky-ization-of-the-american-left
• the conversable economist on better-permitting-and-more-building-possible , recent-trends-in-us-antitrust-enforcement
• Anne Irfan on how-america-helped-create-the-palestinian-authority-only-to-undermine-it-ever-since
• Kruggers on money-isnt-everything , women-jobs-and-charlie-kirk , exploiting-male-rage , a-lawless-nation
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-lisa-cook-trump-federal-reserve
• Dahlia Lithwick on supreme-court-news-brett-kavanaugh-racial-profiling
• Sean Illing on free-speech-charlie-kirk-death-first-amendment-incitement-misinformation
• Fred Kaplan on trump-doomed-golden-dome-military-boondoggle
• Aymann Ishmail on donald-trump-ice-arrests-moshen-mahdawi-columbia
• Art Jipson on right-wing-extremist-violence-is-more-frequent-and-more-deadly-than-left-wing-violence-what-the-data-shows
• Zack Beauchamp on charlie-kirk-killing-trump-vance-miller-free-speech-cancel, jimmy-kimmel-suspension-air-abc-charlie-kirk-nexstar
• home and away on democracy-at-risk
• Brad De Long on white-flags-and-price-tags
• Emma Shortis on jimmy-kimmels-cancellation-is-the-latest-sign-were-witnessing-the-end-of-us-democracy
• Mark Stern on jimmy-kimmel-canceled-fcc-trump-first-amendment
• Ta-Nehisi Coates on charlie-kirk-ezra-klein
• Perry Bacon on karen-attiah-black-voices-firing
• AD Carson on if-charlie-kirk-was-an-advocate-for-free-speech-why-am-I-on-his-watchlist
• Eric Levitz on kimmel-suspension-trump-fcc-kirk-free-speech
• Sean Illing on trump-kimmel-free-speech-paradox-democracy
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on supreme-court-john-roberts-criticism-ouch
• Ikoo Kang on how-jimmy-kimmel-succumbed-to-donald-trumps-culture-wars-playbook

Europe

• Leo Greenberg on the immigration lesson liberals do not want to face Thanks Nick
• Jon Richardson 

Asia

• institutional economics on chinas-broken-abacus-
• Kvetch on netzsche-and-the-zionists Thanks Nick
• Shannon Bosch on can-israel-use-self-defence-to-justify-its-strike-on-qatar-under-the-law
• David Mednicoff on israels-attack-in-doha-underscores-a-stark-reality-for-gulf-states-looking-for-stability-and-growth-they-remain-hostage-to-events
• noahopinin on china-is-quietly-saving-the-world-from-climate-change
• Andrea Wong on chronicles-corruption
• Jason Burke and Jon Henley on israel-committed-genocide-in-gaza-says-un-inquiry
• Mrev Amir and Hagar Kotef on israeli-doctors-reveal-their-conflicted-stories-of-treating-palestinian-prisoners-held-in-notorious-black-site-sde-teiman
• Saima Afzal on nepal-s-generational-revolt-catches-china-india-middle
• Ruth Margalit on israels-new-occupation

Wonk

• Joseph Klein on redefining-antisemitism-to-mean-anti-zionism-is-endangering-jews Thanks Nick
• Gabriela Bernal on conflict-creeps-caribbean-calm
• Tim Harford on why-shooting-the-statistical-messenger-doesnt-add-up
• Stephanie Fillion on big-picture-benefits-un-headquarters-new-york
• the conversable economist on economics-of-trade-sanctions , some-trends-in-global-debt-from-the-imf

General

• Simon Stevenson on 10-years-ago-gravitational-waves-changed-astronomy-a-new-discovery-shows-theres-more-to-come
• Tyler Cowen on the-sound-of-music
• Saini Samin and Hayden Dalton on volcanoes-can-help-us-untangle-the-evolution-of-humans-heres-how
• Daryl Sparkes on a-pretty-face-helped-make-robert-redford-a-star-talent-and-dedication-kept-him-one

Climate

• David Appell on record-low-for-august-average-arctic-sea-ice-thickness , august-temperatures-brought-to-you-by-NASA GISS
• and Then Theres Physics on koonin-providing-clarity-on-climate
• open mind on hit-and-run
• skeptical science on ai-and-climate-change , fact-brief-has-the-greenhouse-effect-been-falsified , climate-change-accelerating-grim-report , new_research
• Junli Lim on climate-disasters-aren-t-natural-calling-them-makes-things-worse
• real climate on time-and-tide-gauges-wait-for-no-voortman
• moyhu on update-on-august-global-average-surface

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• draw-it-with-your-eyes-closed-the-art-of-the-statistics-assignment
  
• bda3-for-free
  
• helen-dewitt-says-programming-occupies-a-place-similar-to-that-of-literacy-in-mediaeval-england
  
• the-desperation-of-causal-inference-in-ecology
  
• survey-statistics-random-sampling-is-not-leaving
  
• hey-nature-magazine-reputation-is-a-two-way-street
  
• more-howl-after-allen-ginsberg-for-the-ai-headed-hipsters
  
• condition-numbers-for-hmc-and-the-funnel
  
• when-thinking-about-causal-inference-mechanistic-or-process-models-are-important-i-think-that-the-association-of-causal-with-black-box-models-leads-to-lots-of-problems
  
• Freakometrics on discrimination on proxies and tattoos in Japan

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• building-vs-stopping
  
• the-end-of-progress
  
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

vox wonk

• hidden-toll-sunday-store-closures-new-evidence-gps-data
  
•  how-ai-chatbots-can-improve-voter-information 
• why-households-save-and-work-role-risks-bequest-motives-and-family-dynamics 
  
• reinforced-regional-integration-fosters-inclusive-growth-and-human-development
  
• economic-impact-us-tariff-hikes-significance-trade-diversion-effects
  
• long-life-spans-royals-reveal-secret-healthy-stress
  
• ai-misinformation-and-value-trusted-news
  
• winners-and-losers-energy-crisis-policy-lessons-iberian-electricity-market
  
• incomplete-contracts-and-renegotiation-public-procurement
  

Burfday

 Exactly one week after Steve from Brisbane's birthday I had one today.

I am the same age as John quiggin but since his birthday is in April he is older than me.

Little time for anything else.

Every one have a good one

Wars

 Israel is pounding Gaza city because it is a Hamas stronghold. Why it is after three years of Israel pouding Gaza has not been explained. It will be the cause of more innocent palestinians killings because at this stage one of the most sophisticated armies in the world do not know how to kill Hamas operatives from ordinary palestinians nor do they appear to care. Most people think it is genocide but Israel does not appear to care. Nor do they care they are losing international friends by the minute.

Ukraine is under massive attack from Russia. Until the Western world realises you can only get Putin to retreat by beating him on the battlefield ( which means giving Ukraine the weapons to do this) nothing will change. I am bemused by people suggesting is changing from his pro-russian policy. I will believe it when the USA is sending them weapons to beat russia.

South sudan is a disgrace. A civil war when no-one will win. It has created a famine which is so bad it is killing people day by day. No-one should be supplying anyone there any weapons at all.

It is not hard to be depressed

The Liberals in a funk

 It isn't great being a Liberal at present.

In NSW they lost a by-election . It wasn't a big loss but a loss nevertheless. There is speculation the NSW leader will face a leadership contest.  State elections are usually centred around leaders. Chris Minns is still going well despite some missteps sso if history is any guide the ALP will win the next state election unless something spectacular occurs.

In the Federal sphere the Liberals have gone backwards since the election. This has occurred for two interrelated reasons. As you might have thought there is a lot of infighting. There is a lot of argument of why they lost so badly. It is quite apparent most people do not think the Liberals are fair dinkum on climate change. Rejecting net zero would add insult to injury. It could lead the Liberals to permant oppoition which is a very bad thing.

Another problem they have is they do not have a lot of talent so that makes it doubly hard to successfully attack the government.

These are not happy days for the Liberals

Charlie Kirk

 It is typical of the USA that you kill a person you disagree with and even Kirk believed deaths were something you copped if you believe people should be allowed to carry arms.

In terms of Kirk here  and here are two articles of Kirk that are realistic.

If he had stayed as a christian apologist he would have been fine BUT politics meant he had to make too many 'amendments' to his christian beliefs like supporting the 2020 election was stolen, having 7 buses bussing people to the insurrection and lately upholding the murder of 11 people on a boat without due process and thus evidence. Let us not forget his reaction to the hammer assault on Paul Pelosi. His take that Zelensky was a dictator because elections have not been held showed utter stupidity. Hard to have an election when another country is in your country and want all of it. It would also help if you knew a little bit about ukraine's constitution!

We should also not forget his support for the absolute paradox of being a christian nationalist. Supporting an ideology that boosts white people, supports prosperity gospel, even theocracy suggests to me he was influenced more by satan than God.

To me his passion for politics led him to these satanic positions without realising it. It is a very good lesson to take out of it.

Every christian should be very wary.

Whoopsy I forgot what occurred after the killing. The Utah governor was very impressive. He was everything that trump was not. Kruggers has shown political violence is a more radical right wing thing than left wing. The last FBI director that had credibility said the same thing to Congress. See also Tyler Cowen

Als the Utah governm] or has stated the alleged killer had far left views but would not detail them. That is very suspicious. Either he could detaial them or he knew he could not. the man is human and would be under a lot of political pressure.

Around the Traps 12/9/25

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Christopher Rudge on robodebt-compensation-is-a-win-for-victims-but-now-we-may-never-know-the-full-story
• Ross Gittins on if-youve-been-treating-yourself-more-your-not-alond-heres-why , why-wed-be-mugs-to-cut-rate-of-company-tax , our-future-prosperity-is-bright-weve-hidden-an-ace-up-our-sleave , if-we-care-about-fairness-its-not-well-paid-that-are-the-worry
• Lindsay Dodd on messy-truth-australia-s-reputation-southeast-asia
• Natalie Peng on could-labors-super-tax-reforms-be-headed-for-a-makeover-heres-how-a-redesign-might-work
• Helen Zhang on why-australians-are-realists-china
• Jiwon Kim on peacemaker-pacemaker-playmaker-three-way-formula-engaging-north-korea
• croaking cassandra on another-snippet , tangled-webs , a-former-deputy-governor-on-the-rb-shambles , outstanding-questions
• Kevin Bonham on how-labor-won-94-seats-off-modest-primary-vote
• Michelle Grattan on sussan-ley-sacks-jacinta-price-after-she-refuses-to-declare-leadership-loyality
• Milad Haghani and David Henscher on private-toll-roads-are-supposed-to-save-taxpayers-money-but-can-have-these-hidden-costs
• Peter Hartcher on federal/for-the-liberals-it-will-get-worse-before-it-gets-worse-20250911-p5mueb

OZ Climate

• wind-hits-record-147-per-cent-of-state-demand-thanks-to-new-link-and-relaxed-gas-needs
  
• extraordinary-battery-storage-prices-plunge-again-as-wind-and-solar-curtailment-levels-soar 
  
• watt-promises-faster-yess-and-faster-nos-in-breakthrough-for-wind-solar-and-storage-projects
  
• renewables-reach-new-record-high-of-76-4-pct
  
• australias-business-lobbies-seem-happy-to-let-the-country-burn-what-will-federal-labor-do
  
• queensland-lnp-pledges-to-burn-coal-for-many-decades-as-federal-labor-wrestles-with-climate-pledge
  
• bigger-home-batteries-are-taming-the-solar-duck-and-creating-more-room-for-rooftop-pv
  
• cheap-power-to-the-people-could-shift-the-dial-for-renewables-in-the-regions
  
• australias-lost-opportunity-the-good-news-and-the-bad-news-on-wind-energy-capital-costs
  
• gas-power-cut-to-a-single-megawatt-as-pv-and-batteries-reshape-the-grid
  
• John Hawkins on rapid-climate-action-will-come-at-a-cost-according-to-the-business-council-but-experts-say-the-benefits-are-far-larger
• Petra Stack on offshore-wind-australia-energy-transition-so-why-mass-exodus-from-investors

Northern America

• institutional economics on scotus-and-the-bond-market
• noahopinion on  america-is-getting-the-economy-we-voted-for , what-is-an-american , civil-war-is-for-idiots-and-losers
• can we still govern on the-authoritarian-checklist Thanks Nick
• Kenneth Rogoff on americas-coming-crash Thanks Nick
• Peter Draper and Nathan Gray on as-trump-abandons-the-rulebook-on-trade-does-free-trade-have-a-future-elsewhere
• Tyler Cowen on a-few-remarks-on-fed-independence
• Kruggers on the-dangers-of-fiscal-dominance , scott-bessent-sleazy-smearer ,waving-the-bloody-shirt
• Rebecca Ibarra and Sean Rameswaram on trump-deportation-us-population-shrink
• Brad De Long on on-the-deeply-corrupt-republican-justices
• Menzie Chinn on clifford-winston-academic-toadies-impair-government-performance
• Luke Hunt on trumps-deployment-of-the-national-guard-to-fight-crime-blurs-the-legal-distinction-between-the-police-and-the-military
• Mark Stern on supreme-court-analysis-ice-detention-kavanaugh-sotomayor
• newdeal democrat on scenes-from-the-no-good-rotten-terrible-and-abysmal-august-jobs-report , the-gold-standard-qcew-suggests-there-may-have-been-no-growth-at-all-in-jobs-so-far-this-year
• the conversable economist on interview-with-dean-karlan-us-government-foreign-aid , us-income-inequality-before-taxes-and-many-transfers-census-data
• Jeet Heer on charlie-kirk-shooting-assassination-analysis
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-03
• Jared Monschein on charlie-kirks-assassination-is-the-latest-act-of-political-violence-in-a-febrile-united-states
• Karrin Anderson on why-journalists-are-reluctant-to-call-trump-an-authoritarian-and-why-that-matters-for-democracy
• Eric Levitz on charlie-kirk-shooting-trump-radical-left-violence
• Joan Walsh on charlie-kirk-assassination-tragedy
• Zack Beauchamp on charlie-kirk-shooting-killed-right-way-suspect
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on charlie-kirk-shooter-details-supreme-court-guns

Europe

• Irna Skubii on soviet-symbolism-returns-russian-diplomacy
• David Kirichenko on ukraine-s-oil-war-threatens-leave-russia-running-empty
• Tyler Cowen on facts-about-norway
• Jennifer Mathers on russia-has-provided-fresh-evidence-of-its-territorial-ambitions-in-ukraine
• the conversable economist on eu-productivity-and-lack-of-integration , predistribution-not-redistribution-in-the-nordic-countries
• Tom Nicholls on russia-reckless-provocation
• Khang Vu on are-there-actually-north-korean-troops-inside-ukraine
• Alex Tabarrok on the-british-war-on-slavery
• Fred Kaplan on poland-russia-drones-trump-putin

Asia

• Adam Simpson on thailand-has-another-new-prime-minister-and-an-opening-for-progress-but-will-anything-change
• Jackson Lopez on vietnam-s-case-what-exactly-target-trump-s-transshipment-tariffs
• Sebastian Maslow on why-did-japanese-prime-minister-shigeru-ishiba-resign-and-who-might-replace-him
• Ian Langford on xi-jinping-is-in-a-race-against-time-to-secure-his-legacy-in-china
• Fred Kaplan on trump-qatar-israel-gaza-palestine-war
• Shannon Bosch on can-israel-use-self-defence-to-justify-its-strike-on-qatar-under-the-law
• Scott Lucas on middle-east-leaders-condemn-israels-attack-on-qatar-as-netanyahu-ends-all-talk-of-gaza-ceasefire-expert-qanda
• Julien Oeuillet on taiwan-s-diplomacy-doesn-t-have-come-government
• Chietigi Bajpaee on india-us-relations-demonstrate-fickle-foreign-policies-sticky-relations

Wonk

• the existential republic on i-researched-every-attempt-to-stop-facism-they-all -failed Thanks Nick
• Luke Burgis on im-going-to-prison Thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on how-a-well-timed-kind-word-can-change-everything
• the conversable economist on what-do-managers-do
• Tyler Cowen on three-accounts-of-modern-liberalism
• Michael Mann and Peter Hotez on science-under-siege-weaponised-disinformation
• Seong-Hyon Lee on china-russia-north-korea-alliance-needs-no-name
• Andrew Dodd and Mathew Ricketson on murdoch-resolves-succession-drama-a-win-for-lachlan-a-loss-for-public-interest-journalism
• noahopinion on are-westerners-turning-back-into-medieval-peasants
• Menzie Chinn on what-new-have-we-learned-about-us-dollar-dominance-as-a-reserve-currency

General

• Jake Newman-Martin et al on australia-has-some-new-marsupial-species-but-theyre-already-extinct
• Marguerite Johnson on the-legend-of-troy-explained

Climate

• David Appell on the-lack-of-peer-review-for-doe-climate
• open mind on bad-science-on-sea-level , how-bonferroni-goes-wrong
• and Then Theres Physics on some-thoughts-about-doing-science
• Umair Irfan on vector-borne-disease-threats-climate-change-brownsville-texas-resistance
• skeptical science on merchants-of-doubt-are-back , fact-brief-has-arctic-sea-ice-recovered , new_research
• Steve Chown on high-tech-plans-to-save-polar-ice-will-fail-new-research-finds
• Peter Newman and Sam Wills on climate-action-can-feel-slow-but-the-fastest-energy-leap-in-history-has-begun

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• weighting-of-evidence-and-conflict-of-interest-at-the-fda-and-elsewhere
  
• this-post-is-not-about-newt-gingrich-and-fox-news-nor-is-it-about-michio-kaku-and-string-theory
  
• hypertext-as-constructed-and-hypertext-as-read
  
• show-dont-tell-chatgpt-5-marginalizing-gelmans-measurment-error-model-in-stan 
  
• survey-statistics-imputation-ii
  
• going-beyond-naive-individualistic-models-of-social-science
  
• howl-after-allen-ginsberg-for-the-ai-headed-hipsters
  
• hot-social-science-topics-20-years-ago-and-hot-social-science-topics-now
  
• that-external-validity-question-how-to-think-of-a-3-year-ubi-study
  
• Freakometrics on personalised  insurance premiums

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• 
  
• Joel Eissenberg on book-ted-nugent
• Tyler Cowen on take-a-girl-like-you-by-kingsley-amis
• Andrew Gelman on you-learn-about-possible-plagiarism-in-a-literary-work-how-does-that-affect-your-view-of-it-the-a-j-finn-story

Vox wonk

• loose-monetary-policy-dollar-depreciation-and-debt-sustainability-do-not-forget
  
•  when-aid-kills-how-foreign-assistance-can-fuel-political-violence 
• easy-money-easy-spending-new-take-resource-curse
  
• unpacking-us-tech-valuations-agnostic-assessment
  
• artificial-intelligence-office-and-factory-evidence-administrative-software-registry
  
• prudential-instruments-and-recent-inflationary-episode
  
• reaching-public-how-direct-central-bank-communication-anchors-citizens-inflation
  

okay even more of some more things

 Birthday Card

Trump is now saying Epstein and then his estate kept a birthday card even though it was a fake. funny how the signature look like his. I have said previously I do not believe trump dealt in illegal conduct here but there must be more embarrassing stuff there for all the bulldust coming out of the whitehouse. his apologists are even worse!

Israel

Israel bombs a building in Doha because they believe members of Hamas was there. Please note this attempted assassination was because they gloated over october 7. This is sooo against international law it is not funny. 
Also and this is most important there will be no more talks of getting the hostages back.

Nepal

Nepal is hit by large demonstrations. firstly it was about the banning of several social media sites. It has now morphed into anti-government protests about corruption. Quite a few people have died how this will work out no-ne seems to know. Lets hope it ends in a good solution.

some might call this nepalling

Socceroos

The younguns got a run and played well. They passed well, ran into position well and finished well. And we have a specialist freekick taker who is deadly from 30 yards out!  We have yet to test some of the other young players so the ffuture is looking bright thus far.

Ange

big ange has taken over at Nottingham Forest. I think this is a great fit. The team should really enjoy playing Angeball however the only problem is what are the metrics for success. both ange at Spurs and the last NF Manager thought they had good seasons yet both got sacked!

Japan

Japan is looking for a new PM. although Japan is a 'democracy' the party governing rarely changes which is a very bad thing. hopefully this might change.

Grand Juries

M/s Pirro the DA there now in Washington has been denied an indictment by grand juries 7 times. the most famous case being the sandwichman. This has also occurred a few times in LA. This is unheard of in practice and shows how incompetent the DOJ has become under trump