Around the Traps 17/1/25

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Mark the Graph on australian-recessions
• Michelle Grattan on duttons-2025-launch-still-leaves-voters-needing-answers-on-key-policies
• Gregory Melleiush on anthony-albanese-is-already-on-the-campaign-trail-it-signals-the-tough-election-battle-ahead
• Rohann Irving on 9-out-of-10-australian-sports-bettors-are-men-heres-why-that-might-change
• John Hawkins on the-australian-dollar-has-hit-a-5-year-low-sounds-bad-but-dont-panic
• Greg Jericho on australians-should-be-angry-about-another-year-of-climate-inaction-but-dont-let-your-anger-turn-into-despair
• Nicki Hutley on australia-is-becoming-an-uninsurable-nation-there-may-only-be-one-solution

OZ Climate

• solar-duck-sends-rooftop-tariff-close-to-zero-snaps-focus-to-home-batteries-and-slashing-use-of-grid-power
  
• much-of-australia-has-the-same-climate-as-la-when-it-comes-to-bushfires-that-doesnt-bode-well
  
• daytime-wholesale-power-prices-are-heading-to-zero-isnt-that-good-news
  
• peter-duttons-always-on-nuclear-power-is-about-as-reliable-as-wind-and-solar-during-a-renewables-drought
  
• its-the-s-curve-stupid-new-model-predicts-half-of-worlds-energy-will-come-from-solar-by-2035
  

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-retrospective-on-the-first-year-of-trumps-second-term , six-measures-of-nfp-change-since-2023m12-four-measures-of-private-nfp , billion-dollar-disaster-cost-to-year-to-date-assuming-nothing-else-happens-in-january
• Ming Pan on southern-california-is-extremely-dry-and-thats-fueling-fires-maps-show-just-how-dry
• Wayne Unger on trump-gets-an-unconditional-discharge-in-hush-money-conviction-a-constitutional-law-expert-explains-what-that-means
• Stephanie Fillion on canada-s-bumpy-road-ahead-trump-s-presidency-its-own-election
• Ivana Saric and Lauren Floyd on fire-hydrants-dry-wildfires-los-angeles
• noahopinion on learn-smart-lessons-from-the-la-fires
• Kevin Drum on californias-reservoirs-have-nothing-to-do-with-las-fires , why-dont-we-do-more-prescribed-burning-an-explainer
• Charles Coleman on donald-trump-unfair-sentence
• Ryan Beckwith on los-angeles-wildfires-trump-response-fact-check
• Andrew Freedman on la-fires-climate-change-drought-extreme-weather
• Grant Wyeth on practical-obstacles-canada-51st-state
• Andrew Prokop on trump-prosecutions-investigations-failed-threat-democracy
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on aileen-cannon-final-gift-trump-jack-smith-report-fail
• Shirin Ali on jack-smiths-jan-6-trump-report-final-thing
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-03
• newdeal democrat on december-cpi-rebounds-in-gas-and-car-prices-outpace-deceleration-in-shelter-and-insurance-laggards
• Helen Lewis on peter-thiel-maga-conspiracism
• Brent Cebul on bidenomics-farewell-to-an-idea
• Dianne Ravitch on their-kind-of-indoctrination
• David Wells on big-tech-race-bottom-bad-news-everyone
• Tyler Cowen on net-neutrality-we-hardly-knew-ye
• Glenn Kirshner on aileen-cannon-vol-2-jack-smith-report

Europe

• Chris Bertram on reasons-for-pessimism-in-europe
• stumbling and mumbling on the-two-agendas
• Menzie Chinn on impending-systemic-financial-crisis-in-russia
• Mikaela Lui on foreign-policy-challenges-loom-germany-s-election
• Joshua Keating on ukraine-russia-ceasefire-deal-trump

Asia

• Shasshank Joshi on sinews-are-coming-together-pushback-against-china-asia-plays-out-still
• Kazimier Lim on great-leap-skyward-china-s-jetliner-dreams-are-getting-real
• Scott Lucas on gaza-deal-what-it-means-for-peace-in-the-middle-east-expert-qanda
• Richard Heydarian on can-malaysia-drive-asean-pony-express
• Zack Beauchamp on gaza-ceasefire-deal-hostages-agreement-netanyahu-hamas-trump
• Ian Parmeter on beyond-the-israel-hamas-ceasefire-the-future-looks-unclear-here-are-six-key-unanswered-questions
• Marika Sosnowski on israel-and-hamas-have-agreed-to-a-ceasefire-it-doesnt-guarantee-a-peaceful-end-to-a-devastating-war
• Asher Kaufman on gaza-ceasefire-and-hostage-deal-why-now-and-what-next
• Syed Jeffrey on why-south-korea-might-go-nuclear-trump-s-term

Wonk

• institutional economics on the-cracks-start-to-appear-in-global-markets
• Ved Shinde on riotous-return-of-the-mercantilists
• Tim Harford on what-vaccine-hesitancy-teaches-us-about-politics
• Alex Tabarrok on congestion-tolls-versus-congestion-pricing
• Loc Do on a-new-study-has-found-fluoride-is-linked-to-lower-iq-in-children-heres-why-you-shouldnt-worry
• Meg Tapia on meta-s-decision-ditch-fact-checking-gives-state-sponsored-influence-operations-more
• noahopinion on should-economists-read-marx , tiktok-is-just-the-beginning , the-pettis-paradigm-and-the-second-china-shock
• the conversable economist on interview-with-myron-scholes-on-academic-finance-and-the-black-scholes-option-pricing-formula , will-ai-bring-an-intention-economy
• Tyler Cowen on the-acemoglu-arguments-against-high-skilled-immigration
• Mainly Macro on the-battle-of-our-age
• Gina Perry on the-infamous-stanford-prison-experiment-was-flawed-so-why-is-it-still-so-influential-today
• Mia Hammond-Errey on meta-power-move-about-more-fact-checking
• Jian Xu on us-tiktok-refugees-are-fleeing-to-chinese-app-rednote-its-a-new-phase-of-the-digital-cold-war

General

• noahopinion on at-least-five-interesting-things

Climate

• David Appell on rankings-of-2024-climate-variables
• real climate on 2024-hindsight
• Alexander Howard on ecology-of-fear-mike-davis-history-of-la-and-natural-disaster-is-re-read-whenever-fire-rages-in-california
• skeptical science on climate-role-LA-fires
• David Appell on the-los-angeles-fires
• ocean acidification on future-climate-change-scenarios-of-increased-co2-and-temperature-strongly-affect-a-coral-reef-meiobenthic-harpacticoid-crustacea-community
• Tahlia Fell and Codie Distratis on climate-change-is-forcing-us-to-rethink-our-sense-of-home-and-what-it-means-to-lose-it

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• the-king-sir-is-much-better
  
• muckraking-at-the-university-of-oregon
  
• string-theory-wars-an-opinion-field-inversion
  
• the-theory-crisis-in-physics-compared-to-the-replication-crisis-in-social-science-two-different-opinion-field-inversions-that-differ-in-some-important-ways
  
• the-terror-among-academics-on-the-covid-origins-issue-is-like-nothing-weve-ever-seen-before
  
• why-i-like-preregistration-and-its-not-about-p-hacking-when-done-right-it-unifies-the-substance-of-science-with-the-scientific-method
  
• statschat on all-day-breakfast , only-a-flesh-wound
• Milad Haghadi on the-hot-hand-and-the-gamblers-fallacy-why-our-brains-struggle-to-believe-in-randomness
• Kaiser Fung on on-the-second-day-of-congestion-pricing , know-your-data-40-omnipresent-listening , how-surveys-mislead

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• the-tech-coup
  
• Andrew Gelman on genre-fiction-some-genres-are-cumulative-and-some-are-not
• Tyler Cowen on open-socrates-the-case-for-a-philosophical-life
• Jamie Roberts on catch-22-the-great-antiwar-novel-whose-barbs-still-strike-home-even-in-times-of-peace

Vox Wonk

• wind-turbines-please-my-backyard
  
• institutional-innovation-and-adoption-new-technologies
  
• top-wealth-shares-long-run-history-ca-1300-today
  
• america-under-trump-domestic-and-european-implications
  
• impact-artificial-intelligence-macroeconomic-productivity
  
• how-origin-country-corruption-shapes-immigrants-political-trust
  
• how-european-union-can-improve-its-sanctions-policy
  
• trade-move-how-business-travel-powers-global-trade
  
• how-build-ukrainian-development-bank-leveraging-european-history-and-ukraines-own
  
• trump-conundrum-and-foreign-official-demand-us-treasuries
  
• aligning-food-taxation-climate-goals-possible-path-greening-consumption-europe
  
• closing-ranks-organised-labour-and-immigration
  

We shall see if the ALP are hopeless or not

 At present the LNP are leading in the polls slightly but they are leading.

Although there is a lot of talk about inflation I have yet to hear from the ALP that inflation was rising when the last government was in power. Indeed interest rates were raised in the last campaign! Although it would be unfair to say inflation was their fault, that's politics. No journalist has queried the LNP about this.

Then there is the budget. the LNP made NO effort to repair the budget. Although the ALP made some minor improvement in the structural budget deficit they di not increase it. A strong economy allowed for a significant improvement in the budget balance. As I have repeatedly said it is very hard to repair the budget when the RBA is raising rates. It would be hard to avoid a recession by repairing too hard.

Quite clearly the LNP if they are to be believed would have put Australia into a severe recession. Of course one could be sceptical given their record in government.

As you can see there is  plenty of ammunition to hit the LNP  yet it is not happening. I might add the media again does not ask obvious questions to the LNP on fiscal policy.

Let us go to Immigration. Dutton has said he would massively cut immigration BUT would increase skilled labour to build homes. It means a huge cut to international students for example and essentially no more family reunions. When asked about this Dutton has said He favours better treatment for pensioners so they can increase the labour force. Huh A 68 year old tradies does not want to continue to work!

Plenty of ammunition to attack for the ALP but I have yet to hear them.

Finally there is the LNP's nuclear nonsense. Perhaps the ALP  is waiting for the election campaign but they should not. Apart from the nonsensical 'research' which should get a large workout in an a campaign. We have really yet to hear the ALP really hit the LNP with the huge costs involved, the large price increases which would occur by relying on gas and coal before nukes come on board. Will the LNP demand retail companies buy nuke power or will they subsidise it so it is then competitive with renewables.

Given the large number of people who have solar panels they have yet to say this MUST be curtailed if you have base load power.

As you can see there is plenty just on these few topics to attack the LNP but little coming from the ALP ( or from journalists)

Shock horror. Nuclear like coal is NOT always on

 This is well worth a read. Nuclear is not more reliable then wind nor solar.

how do you combat anti-semitism?

 I have heard a lot of people say governments should do more to combat anti-semitism.

Just this morning I heard a young lady ( they are all young now!) say this very thing. Then purely as an afterthought she said well very few people have been arrested.

Perzactly. Until some-one is arrested and then prosecuted and then sentenced we do not know if we do need greater penalties. If no-one is arrested then sentences become academic! Remember too anyone arrested will get the full media treatment. That will be probably a greater deterrent than any sentence.

There is simply far too much posturing on this very important topic.

A few articles on the LA fires

 These fires are terrible.

Here is Noah Smith's opinion. Tyler Cowen thinks it is pretty good!

Next we have some from Kevin Drum.

HERE and HERE ( this is more general and long but very good.)

Around the Traps 10/1/25

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Nick Gruen on tasmanias-afl-team-shouldnt-come-at-any-cost
• Alexandra Ludwig on genius-or-charlatan-the-strange-tale-of-a-19th-century-polymath-who-left-a-trail-of-controversy-across-colonial-australia
• Sue Thompson on australia-asean-storied-history
• Marina Zhang on australia-s-predicament-navigating-new-era-techno-nationalism
• Malcolm Farr on sorry-tony-but-the-only-person-you-have-to-blame-for-being-booted-out-of-office-is-yourself
• Frank Bongiorno on i-dont-hold-the-hose-mate-australias-political-history-is-full-of-gaffes-here-are-some-of-best-or-worst
• Clive Phillips on new-research-reveals-why-some-australian-dairy-farmers-are-considering-leaving-the-industr
• Howard Marrins and Kate Burridge on is-australian-english-under-threat-from-the-americans-its-not-as-simple-as-you-might-think
• Greg Jericho on australian-dollar-falling-is-not-crashing-dont-panic-comment
• David Bowman on la-is-on-fire-how-will-australia-cope-when-bushfires-hit-sydney-melbourne-or-another-major-city
• Sam Aman on new-study-challenges-a-major-theory-on-why-some-kangaroos-mysteriously-went-extinct
• Ross Gittins on the-many-different-effects-of-fall-in-our-dollar

OZ Climate

• new-year-begins-with-more-solar-records-as-pv-takes-bigger-bite-out-of-coals-holiday-lunch
  
• australias-biggest-coal-state-breaks-new-ground-in-wind-and-solar-output
  

Northern America

• Jen Psaki on trumps-false-new-orleans-suspect-truth-social-border-fearmongering
• Tyler Cowen on the-new-right-has-no-solution-for-the-elite-problem Thanks Nick , one-early-report-on-congestion-pricing-in-nyc
• Stephen Adubato on behind-the-teacher-exodus Thanks Nick
• Menzie Chinn on the-price-and-income-elasticities-of-us-trade-flows
• Tim Harford on high-growth-doesnt-tell-the-story-of-the-us-economy
• Kevin Drum on why-cant-tariffs-replace-the-income-tax
• Kruggers on bothsidesing-with-a-republican-slant Thanks Brad
• Thomas Klassen on justin-trudeau-quits-how-his-focus-on-social-policy-will-be-his-legacy
• Thomas Klassen on justin-trudeau-quits-how-his-focus-on-social-policy-will-be-his-legacy
• David Faris on trump-office-inauguration-jan-6-insurrection-capitol-riots-congress
• noahopinion on bidens-tarnished-industrial-legacy , trudeau-was-a-poor-steward-of-canadas-economy
• the conversable economist on why-trucks-should-pay-mileage-taxes
• Mia Hobbes on the-new-orleans-attack-and-las-vegas-tesla-explosion-are-examples-of-the-us-militarys-violent-extremism-problem
• Umair Irfan on palisades-eaton-wildfire-los-angeles-santa-ana-winds-california-explainer
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-trump-immunity-new-york
• Mark Stern on aileen-cannon-jack-smith-report-obstruction-bananas
• David Cole on free-speech-for-tiktok
• Jon Keeley on how-santa-ana-winds-fueled-the-deadly-fires-in-southern-california
• Liz Zhou on los-angeles-wildfires-cities
• Andrew Prokop on trump-tariffs-madman-theory-economy-markets
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on trump-alito-phone-call-criminal-sentencing-timing
• Kevin Drum on elon-musk-is-the-new-emperor-of-misinformation

Europe

• Zeeshan Aleem on russia-ukraine-war-recruit-soldiers-trump
• stumbling and mumbling on against-if-i-were-king-politics , the-centre-right-killed-by-economics
• Aurelien Mondon on jean-marie-le-pen-died-knowing-his-extremist-far-right-politics-have-been-successfully-mainstreamed-in-france
• Timothy Ryback on hitler-germany-constitution-authoritarianism
• Isaac Chotiner on tracking-the-threats-to-german-democracy

Asia

• noahopinion on how-do-we-measure-whether-chinas-is-ahead-of-US-economy
• the conversable economist on chinas-economic-situation-interview-with-barry-naughton
• Olena Guisanova on message-north-korea-sends-rotating-its-troops-russia
• Phillip Eliason and David Livingstone on syrian-boss-ahmed-al-sharaa-leopard-fix
• Lewis Eves on chinas-economy-took-centre-stage-in-xis-new-year-address-spinning-slow-growth-as-a-remarkable-achievement
• Ali Mahaqi on water-tensions-under-taliban
• Ujjwal Krisna on manmohan-singh-remembering-indian-reformer-internationalist
• Chietigj Bajpaee on india-may-not-be-interested-geopolitics-geopolitics-interested-india
• Menzie Chinn on rhodium-group-another-estimate-of-chinese-gdp-growth
• Kourosh Ziabari on no-compulsory-hijab-hasn-t-made-iranian-women-safer

Wonk

• institutional economics on stephen-miran-on-restructuring-the-world-economy
• Menzie Chinn on the-impact-of-the-chinese-exclusion-act-on-the-economic-development-of-the-western-u-s
• the conversable economist on many-capitalisms , happy-public-domain-day-2025
• essays concerning on is-the-bbc-enabling-marginal-malign-opinion
• Hugh Piper on test-cricket-s-world-cup-forgets-what-s-best-about-game
• Max Broad on wanna-bet-when-smart-wager-can-trump-secret-intelligence
• Mainly Macro on vibes-for-economy-and-other-things
• Ned Watt et al on meta-is-abandoning-fact-checking-this-doesnt-bode-well-for-the-fight-against-misinformation
• 
  

General

• Nathan Goldwag on some-thoughts-on-casablanca Thanks Nick
• Margaret Maynard on sunglasses-reflect-more-than-the-light-a-brief-history-of-shades-from-ancient-rome-to-hollywood
• Daniel Eldridge on how-do-mosquito-repellents-work-a-chemistry-expert-explains

Climate

• Joel Eissenberg on global-co2-levels-increased-in-2024
• ocean acidification on new-climate-warning-could-reshape-how-we-see-our-shores-and-coastal-areas
• essays concerning on saving-money-with-an-air-source-heat-pump-in-an-old-house-2024-report , stop-demanding-certainty-from-climate-models-we-know-enough-to-act
• Moyhu on december-global-surface-templs-down-009-from-november
• Richard Rood on that-arctic-blast-can-feel-brutally-cold-but-how-much-colder-than-normal-is-it-really
• David Appell on temperatures-vs-enso-category , is-global-warming-speeding-up

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• what-are-my-goals-what-are-their-goals-how-to-prepare-for-that-meeting
  
• i-would-have-had-a-simple-piece-of-advice-say-nothing
  
• literary-agency-scams
  
• truth-is-more-realistic-than-fiction-and-what-this-tells-us-about-odious-thought-experiments
  
• junk-science-becomes-more-professionalized-meanwhile-conspiracy-theories-are-being-more-associated-with-the-political-right-how-does-all-this-fit-together-im-not-sure
  
• i-would-add-three-words-to-this-statement-by-uri-simonsohn-on-preregistration
  
• statschat on size-matters , briefly

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• engineers-and-their-problems
  
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• frank-fragmentation-new-keynesian-model
  
• what-we-can-learn-inequality-revolution-prehistory
  
• problem-versus-opportunity-implications-immigration-workers-welfare-and
  
• redirecting-ai-privacy-regulation-and-future-artificial-intelligence
  
• who-benefits-from-russias-war-with-ukraine
  
• shooting-down-trade-firm-level-effects-embargoes
  
• emergence-economic-rationality-gpt
  
• how-bank-england-could-have-avoided-mis-forecasting-uk-inflation-during-2021-24
  
• how-spending-rich-drives-income-poor-and-why-matters-business-cycle
  
• social-mobility-and-digital-divides-emerging-economies-evidence-4th-wave-life
  
• macroeconomic-effects-gender-revolution
  

Aileen Cannon is a disgrace

 Aileen Cannon is a judge in florida appointed by Trump AFTER he had lost in 2020.

Read Mark Stern and weep.