Around the Traps 11/7/25

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Heidi Norman on a-defiant-stand-histories-of-australias-frontier-wars-are-revealing-their-true-complexity-but-theres-more-to-be-done
• Sam Roggeveen on clock-ticks-towards-pentagon-aukus-review-deadline
• John Edwards on why-albanese-echoing-curtin-s-call-america
• Stella Huangfu on interest-rates-are-on-hold-at-3-85-as-the-reserve-bank-opts-for-caution-over-mortgage-relief
• Xanthe Mallet on a-shakespearean-small-town-murder-why-australia-became-so-obsessed-with-the-erin-patterson-mushroom-case
• Nicki Hutley on the-rbas-decision-to-hold-rates-isnt-a-calamity-but-its-shift-in-language-is-confounding-and-worrying
• Josh Butler on australia-antisemitism-plan-recommendations-and-why-some-are-causing-concern
• Matteo Vergani on the-special-envoys-antisemitism-plan-is-ambitious-but-fails-to-reckon-with-the-hardest-questions
• Michelle Grattan on envoys-plan-to-fight-antisemitism-would-put-universities-on-notice-over-funding

OZ climate

• how-pumped-hydro-could-help-get-south-australia-all-the-way-to-100-pct-renewables
  
• orica-lands-funding-for-green-ammonia-hub-as-another-2-billion-put-on-table-for-hydrogen-hopefuls
  
• neoen-proposes-australias-biggest-battery-next-to-gigawatt-scale-forest-wind-project
  
• australia-may-need-twice-as-many-big-batteries-to-make-up-for-lost-wind
  
• australian-scientists-build-quantum-battery-with-instantaneous-charge-1000-fold-gain-in-storage
  
• australia-fast-tracks-four-big-wind-solar-and-storage-tenders-in-coming-months-to-meet-2030-target
  
• two-regional-queensland-airports-turn-to-solar-to-cut-energy-costs-protect-the-reef
  
• marinus-costs-blow-out-to-more-than-5-billion-but-backers-insist-it-is-still-value-for-money
  
• want-to-slash-energy-bills-the-solutions-start-at-home
  
• wind-farm-bird-protection-tech-a-success-with-no-new-eagle-deaths-and-barely-a-dent-in-revenue
  
• if-data-centres-can-be-built-in-canberra-then-why-not-the-riverina
  
• Graham Readfearn on australians-could-cut-power-bills-by-90-if-they-made-their-homes-more-energy-efficient-report-finds

Northern America

• Brad De Long on trumpxit-and-the-likely-undoing-of-american-exceptionalism , ninety-days-for-zero-deals , this-is-not-an-administration
• Alan Elrod on adoption-belonging-and-the-question-of-citizenship Thanks Nick
• Garry Kasparov on zohran-mamdani-is-the-democratic-establishment's-fault Thanks Nick
• can we still govern on whos-afraid-of-zohran-mamdani Thanks Nick
• institutional economics on from-liberation-day-to-independence-day
• noahopinion on how-to-take-our-country-back
• Menzie Chinn on the-age-of-angst-macro-implications
• Kruggers on real-men-burn-stuff the-tariff-beatings-will-continue-until-morale-improves , build-baby-build , trumps-dictator-protection-program , should-we-politicize-the-texas-flood-absolutely
• Dylan Scott on measles-outbreak-cases-vaccine-trump-rfk
• Nitish Pahwa on texas-floods-marjorie-taylor-greene-weather-manipulation-conspiracy-theories
• Abdallah Faayad on zohran-mamdani-racism-islamophobia-nyc-mayoral-race
• David Frum on welcome-to-the-mafia-presidency
• Samuel Corne on new-us-directive-for-visa-applicants-turns-social-media-feeds-into-political-documents
• Eric Levitz on trump-medicaid-cuts-democrats
• Mark Stern  on neutral-supreme-court-principle-democratic-presidents-only
• Fred Kaplan on trump-news-ukraine-weapons-hegseth-rubio-russia-putin
• new deal democrat on two-important-danger-signals-in-the-june-employment-report
• unpopular front on jd-vances-anti-declaration thanks Brad
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on ketanji-brown-jackson-vs-amy-coney-barrett-history
• Shane Harris on cia-note-russia-hoax
• Jeet Heer on pete-hegseth-chaos-pentagon-resign
• Zack Beauchamp on trump-tik-tok-letters-dispensing-power-king
• Ruth Marcus on why-a-devoted-justice-department-lawyer-became-a-whistle-blower

Europe

• Fred Kaplan on trump-news-ukraine-russia-putin-weapons

Asia

• Julie Norman on a-new-gaza-ceasefire-deal-is-on-the-table-will-this-time-be-different
• Juliet Rogers on whose-agony-is-greater-than-mine-testimonies-of-gaza-and-october-7-ask-us-to-recognise-shared-humanity
• Brendan Clift on hong-kongs-light-fades-as-another-pro-democracy-party-folds
• Ali Mamouri on the-us-has-high-hopes-for-a-new-gaza-ceasefire-but-israels-long-term-aims-seem-far-less-peaceful
• Robert Walker and Hilman Palaon on indonesia-prabowo-s-populism-clashes-economic-realities
• Shannon Bosch on israels-rafah-camp-humanitarian-city-or-crime-against-humanity
• Nava Nuraniyah et al on indonesia-targeted-rafale-fighter-jet-disinformation
• Michael Cunningham on china-coup-rumours-xi-jinping-s-decline-are-premature
• David Schulman on netanyahus-war
• Isaac Chotiner on the-war-on-gazas-children

Wonk

• Peter Viereck on conservatisms-humanist-road-not-taken Thanks Nick
• Adam Wey on gallipoli-strait-malacca-why-maritime-choke-points-still-decide-fate-nations
• Tim Harford on why-is-modern-commerce-corrosive
• noahopinion on the-elite-overproduction-hypothesis , at-least-five-interesting-things , free-market-economics-is-working-surprisingly-well
• the conversable economist on e-b-white-on-the-meaning-of-democracy , how-much-will-ai-increase-productivity
• Guita Hourani on protection-paradox-how-refugee-law-fails-those-fleeing-failed-states
• Mark Pierce on war-stories-our-fascination-grease-guts-conflict
• the conversable economist on latin-america-a-lost-century-for-catch-up-growth
• Amalendu Misra on brics-is-sliding-towards-irrelevance-the-rio-summit-made-that-clear
• Filipe Porto on brics-rio-bigger-yet-emptier-ever
• Jon Whittle on does-ai-actually-boost-productivity-the-evidence-is-murky
• Ian Kemish on srebrenica-30-why-turning-point-international-justice-still-matters
• R N Prasher on end-equality-century-political-correctness

General

• Vinod Balasubrahamanian on lyssavirus-is-rare-but-deadly-what-should-you-do-if-a-bat-bites-you
• Kirsten Banks on astronomers-have-spied-an-interstellar-object-zooming-through-the-solar-system
• Nicolas Flament and Annalise Cucchiaro on where-do-giant-volcanic-eruptions-come-from-new-study-finds-missing-link-to-blobs-deep-within-earth

Climate

• Omid Gasemi on experiencing-extreme-weather-and-disasters-is-not-enough-to-change-views-on-climate-action-study-shows
• open mind on heat-wave-hotspots
• moyhu on june-global-surface-templs-down-0047-from-may
• Damian Carrington on climate-crisis-melting-glaciers-ice-caps-volcanic-eruptions-chile-antartica-volcanoes
• skeptical science on the-great-acceleration-debate , new_research
• real climate on the-war-on-gazas-children
• Bill McKibben on46-billion-years-on-the-sun-is-having-a-moment
• Corey Bradshaw et al on melting-ice-will-strengthen-the-monsoon-in-northern-australia-but-cause-drier-conditions-north-of-the-equator

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• the-universal-baseball-association-inc-j-henry-waugh-prop-as-a-metaphor-for-fiction
  
• getting-rid-of-the-scientist-as-hero-model-without-replacing-it-by-the-someone-else-is-hero-model
  
• chatbot-prompts
  
• coleridges-principle-and-the-difference-between-scientific-and-literary-criticism
  
• survey-statistics-imputation
  
• letter-of-recommendation-speak-exaggeration-in-hero-worship-reaches-the-new-yorker
  
• bayesian-inference-is-not-what-you-think-it-is
  
• statschat on briefly, just-one-hot-dog-a-day
• Freakometrics on collectively rethinking disasters , when the numbers mislead us 
• Kaiser Fung on know-your-data-46-using-our-data-to-set-pricing, will-ai-make-cheaters-of-us-all

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• a-miscellany-of-reading
  
• John Edwards on are-we-getting-in-our-own-way Thanks Nick
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• how-ss-great-britain-overcame-tyranny-distance
  
•  rethinking-social-protection-sustainability-what-people-want-and-dont-want
• investment-funds-and-euro-disaster-risk
  
• market-implications-industrial-subsidies
  
• grexit-debate-ten-years-what-we-have-learned
  
• how-firms-navigate-parental-leave-evidence-austria
  
• services-trade-and-environmental-sustainability
  
• making-supply-shock-tariff-propagation-domestic-production-networks
  
• macroeconomic-effects-introducing-central-bank-digital-currency
  
• inflation-targeting-its-current-state-and-key-challenges
  
• early-job-mentoring-placement-and-training-boost-refugee-integration-without-high
  

The RBA has lost confidence

 First of all all of us has the same information the RBA has.

We know the disinflationary forces are at work. The trend has been there for a long time. ( Why oh why do we not have monthly CPIs that has all the data of the quarterly CPIs?)

The previous month we had a monthly CPI seeming out of whack with all the previous ones and inflation might be a problem. Last month's CPI showed that was a one-off probably  an outlier. Essentially Bullock is saying she has no confidence in monthly CPIs

The labour market is not a problem. most of the growth has been in the non-market sector. Hence wages have never been a problem.

Although fiscal policy is stimulatory it is not that large.

The case is there to cut and cut now. I am of the opinion we go to the neutral rate ( say 2.5%) and then wait as the economy is not booming but stuffed because of interest rates.

The RBA has patently lost confidence in making decisions and therefore waits like all people ddo with no confidence.

the mushroom trial

 Having been on juries I won't second guess their verdict. They heard the evidence and I didn't.

I have two questions that have not been answered.

1. Death by those mushrooms is terrible for the person. You would only do it if you hated the people intensely yet the evidence suggested quite the opposite.
2. She was apparently quite impressive in her 8 days of cross examination sso she is quite intelligent BUT the murder was committed by a moron.It was not very hard for the police to get to the bottom of the crime

Where is Hercule Poirot when you need him!!

how Britain became great

 The Uk is a small island so how in the hell di it get to have the greatest empire in history.

Read how-ss-great-britain-overcame-tyranny-distance

Prelude to the Ashes

 Well two more tests. Let us have a look.

England

England's much vaunted batting lineup failed under pressure. Two things of note. It is unlikely we will have roads in the Ashes given the past seasons thank God. Their batsmen are quite suited to batting under our conditions.

England clearly need to find more pace bowlers. Woakes won't come to Australia. They also need another spinner. Bashir will be money for jam out here.   Is Stokes still a test batsman?  He also had a stinker as captain.

Australia

If the WI could bat and catch we would be losing 2-0 not winning 2-0. Our bowling is still fantastic but is aging and thus will not intimidate the poms. Our batting order is still not sorted out and our selections stil reek of over confidence which blew up against SA.

The Ashes looks to be a good competitive series.

Johnny Farnham

 I really do not like johnny Farnham. Here is another clown who thinks up a nickname ( for his tour with Jimmy Barnes) however my brother became friends with the two trumpet trumpet and sax players who were with him. We got to know them when they played with Doug smith and the Crisps at Marys hotel at West Ryde when I played both football and cricket.

Here you go

Did you miss the trumpet and sax players? I did!

Around the Traps 4/7/25

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Jennifer Parker on natos-5-of-gdp-defence-target-ramps-up-pressure-on-australia-to-spend-vastly-more
• Saam Bennett on how-to-reform-the-ndis-and-better-support-disabled-people-who-dont-qualify-for-it
• Susannah Patton on does-australia-see-china-threat
• Kanchan Panday on long-distance-nationalism-tests-australia-s-multicultural-harmony
• Michael Haare on australia-s-17-trillion-ai-moment
• AJ Brown on the-national-anti-corruption-commission-turns-2-has-it-restored-integrity-to-federal-government
• Ryan Neelam on australia-united-states-how-disagree-superpower
• Hugh Piper on australia-can-t-prevaricate-tough-economic-security-trade-offs-anymore
• Greg Jericho on capital-gains-for-the-rich-and-persistent-gender-pay-gaps-what-we-can-learn-from-the-atos-annual-tax-statistics
• Daniel Flitton on meeting-xi-trump-why-albanese-s-diplomatic-calendar-matters

OZ Climate

• flashback-to-campbell-newman-era-as-queensland-passes-rules-that-will-stifle-new-wind-and-solar
  
• what-really-matters-energy-costs-electrification-efficiency-or-climate-change
  
• australia-wants-to-build-at-least-23-gw-of-wind-and-solar-in-66-months-but-it-has-a-financing-problem
  
• approvals-limbo-and-workforce-worries-cast-shadow-over-speed-of-green-energy-transition
  
• parkinson-report-australias-decision-makers-are-ignoring-climate-hailing-coal-and-impersonating-elvis
  
• gas-is-flexible-but-it-must-be-affordable-bowen-flags-review-of-gas-market-regulations
  
• australias-steel-future-is-green-but-it-wont-be-delivered-by-hydrogen
  
• key-transmission-link-delayed-by-two-years-in-new-blow-to-wind-and-solar-projects
  
• tasmania-has-a-new-controversial-wind-project-a-3-gw-behemoth-proposed-for-tarkine-wilderness
  
• australias-most-powerful-battery-conducts-its-first-tests-as-a-giant-shock-absorber-for-the-grid
  
• watershed-moment-big-battery-storage-prices-hit-record-low-in-huge-china-auction
  
• gold-plating-is-out-network-resilience-is-in-and-its-urgently-required
  
• pioneering-community-wind-farm-adds-battery-and-home-grown-smarts-to-dodge-negative-prices
  
• too-little-too-late-renewables-lobby-says-grid-plan-aims-too-low-and-creates-uncertainty
  
• Steve Turton on warmer-seas-are-fuelling-the-dangerous-weather-bomb-about-to-hit-nsw
• Tristan Edis on an-impending-gas-shortfall-in-eastern-australia-this-is-just-gas-market-groundhog-day

Northern America

• institutional economics on us-exceptionalism-without-the-exceptionalism
• Brad De long on mamdani-vs-skeffington-maybe-american-poliitics-is-getting-less-anti-rational
• Christian Paz on democratic-tea-party-zohran-mamdani-new-york-primary-incumbent , trump-bill-reconciliation-unpopular-republican-backlash
• Roger Farmer on tariffs-and-the-trade-deficit
• noahopinion on would-you-rather-have-cheap-energy-or-stupid-culture-wars , jewish-americans-are-feeling-unsettled , we-cant-afford-to-keep-cutting-taxes-for-the-rich
• Andrew Warren on trump-doj-suing-marylands-federal-judges
• Kruggers on were-all-rats-now , republicans-beware-medicaid-is-not-a-soft-target , trumps-big-beautiful-debt-bomb
• Eric Levitz on big-beautiful-bill-senate-trump-tax-cut-ai-wind-solar
• Dylan Scott on big-beautiful-bill-lose-medicaid-trump
• David Franklin on supreme-court-alito-uncle-bobby-yoder-fail
• Jonathan Chait on big-beautiful-bill-backlash
• Tom Nicholls on trump-insults-americaagain
• Fintan O'Toole on a-show-of-force
• the conversable economist on us-health-care-expenditures-an-ominous-trend-returns , the-weird-and-lovely-surge-of-us-productivity-growth
• Ryan Beckwith on pew-stanford-study-voter-id-laws-colorado-democrats
• Umair Irfan on trump-big-beautiful-bill-clean-energy-fossil-climate
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on supreme-court-republican-presidents-kavanaugh-rule
• Nitisha Pahwa on paramount-skydance-merger-trump-settlement

Europe

• stumbling and mumbling on not-debating-immigration
• renew economy on denmark-extends-life-of-two-of-its-oldest-offshore-wind-farms-one-by-another-25-years
• Tyler Cowen on the-anti-alcohol-campaign-in-the-ussr
• Henry Throp on putin-s-potato-politics-exposes-new-economics-conflict

Asia

• Simon Theobald on do-all-iranians-hate-the-regime-hate-america-life-inside-the-country-is-more-complex-than-that
• Benjamin Zala on could-we-live-with-a-nuclear-armed-iran-reluctantly-yes
• Shukriya Bradost on iran-emerged-weakened-and-vulnerable-after-war-with-israel-and-that-could-mean-trouble-for-countrys-ethnic-minorities
• Stefan Messingschlager on decoding-xi-s-china-return-pekingology
• Chris Lloyd on some-collected-observations-on-the-middle-east-crisis
• Marika Sosnoswki on trump-demands-an-end-to-the-war-in-gaza-could-a-ceasefire-be-close
• Roland Rajah on vietnam-s-trump-tariff-deal-what-it-means-asian-supply-chains

Wonk

• the intrinsic perspective on more-lore-of-the-world Thanks Nick
• Indy Johar on we are not living in a simulation Thanks Nick
• Maalvika on being-too-ambitious-is-a-clever-form-of-self sabotage Thanks Nick
• anecdotal value of the-scandal-of-outdated-science Thanks Nick
• Samantha Hill on what-does-it-mean-to-love-world-hannah-arendt-and-amor-mundi Thanks Nick
• Menzie Chinn on gold-the-challenger-to-dollar-reserves
• Jake Scott on im-a-physician-who-has-looked-at-hundreds-of-studies-of-vaccine-safety-and-heres-some-of-what-rfk-jr-gets-wrong
• Tim Harford on can-we-nudge-our-way-to-higher-growth
• noahopinion on the-dawn-of-the-posthuman-age
• Liz Anderson on the-protestant-work-ethic-libertarianism-and-the-welfare-state
• Brad De Long on reflexes-desires-actions-emergence-and-the-mirage-of-machine-minds
• Kruggers on inequality-part-v-predatory-financialization
• Dilnoza Ubaydullaeva on trumps-worldview-is-causing-a-global-shift-of-alliances-what-does-this-mean-for-nations-in-the-middle
• sandwichman on the-realm-of-freedom-and-dictatorship-of-the-proletariat
• the conversable economist on a-case-for-reading-dead-economists
• Brad De Long on the-few-who-move-the-many
• Shameek Godara on critical-minerals-critical-moment-testing-quad-s-resolve

General

• Clancy James on a-strange-bright-burst-in-space-baffled-astronomers-for-more-than-a-year-now-theyve-solved-the-mystery
• Andrew Merdith et al on around-250-million-years-ago-earth-was-near-lifeless-and-locked-in-a-hothouse-state-now-scientists-know-why

Climate

• in due course on highbrow-climate-misinformation Thanks Nick
• Stephen Sherwood et al on earth-is-trapping-much-more-heat-than-climate-models-forecast-and-the-rate-has-doubled-in-20-years
• David Appell on where-do-climate-models-go-for-their-apology , europes-heat-wave
• Graham Readfearn on tracking-sea-ice-is-early-warning-system-for-global-heating-but-us-halt-to-data-sharing-will-make-it-harder-scientists-warn
• skeptical science on latest-wmo-15-C , new_research
• open mind on hot-heat-in-the-usa-and-beyond
• Darla McDonald and Elizabeth Leane on more-and-more-tourists-are-flocking-to-antarctica-lets-stop-it-from-being-loved-to-death
• Edward Doddridge on antarctic-summer-sea-ice-is-at-record-lows-heres-how-it-will-harm-the-planet-and-us

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• misapplication-of-benfords-law-published-in-health-economics-journal
  
• advancing-the-scientific-study-of-structural-racism-concepts-measures-and-methods
  
• its-sapolsky-time-about-that-bogus-claim-that-chess-grandmasters-burn-6000-calories-per-day
  
• survey-statistics-sparsified-mrp
  
• bayesian-data-analysis-is-30-years-old
  
• why-does-explainable-ai-miss-the-mark-explanations-are-a-means-to-an-end
  
• ripoff-prison-video-calls
  
• independence-day-special-this-man-has-no-shame
  

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Jane Messer on mommy-dearest-molly-jong-fasts-blistering-memoir-of-her-always-performing-mother-erica-is-hilarious-and-moving
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading
• Brad De Long on reviewing-reviewing-John Cassidys-capitalism-and-its-critics

Vox Wonk

• productivity-export-sector-evidence-dutch-supplier-networks
  
•  rethinking-exchange-rate-flexibility-post-bretton-woods-era-evidence-new-index
• state-globalisation-new-ebook
  
• new-modelling-approach-evaluating-trump-tariffs
  
• cold-case-over-160-years-old-effects-unification-italys-north-south-divide
  
• gender-role-attitudes-and-female-labour-supply
  
• value-added-tax-paradox-resource-dependent-economies
  
• liquidity-crisis-support-made-switzerland-and-too-big-fail-subsidy
  
• regulation-and-growth-lessons-nearly-50-years-product-market-reforms
  
• households-subjective-expectations-disagreement-common-drivers-and-reaction-aggregate
  
• global-action-without-global-governance-four-pillar-strategy-climate-and-nature
  
• how-fund-design-affects-volatility-shaping-both-trading-and-investor-composition
  
• too-much-good-thing-role-global-us-dollar
  
• campaign-promises-political-coupons-future-benefits-sway-dont-retain-voters
  
• us-dollar-stablecoin-mercantilism-opportunity-promote-payment-multilateralism
  
• climate-change-firms-and-aggregate-productivity