A lament on US Politics

 Sorry but I am going all over the place on this.

If Trump wins then what will Democrats do? I suspect they will brazenly lie just like Trump and the republicans are doing now. If you think US elections are bad now just wait for that. The important thing to remember here is facts do not matter. People do not believe them!

Joe Scarborough is correct. This election will be a vote on whether lies are effective or not and thus whether voters have standards or not.

I know evangelical is a different term in the USA. It does not mean they read the bible nor that they regard the bible as God's word and nor do they go to church. Indeed it is another way to say you vote republican but I shall engage them anyway. God does not approve of lies. He hates lies. It isn't hard to read the bible to find this out. On the other hand Satan is the father of all liars. If Trump lies there is no tomorrow then it is pretty clear Trump is not doing God's work. 

I read everywhere that polling underestimated Trump's vote in 2016 and 2020. I also read how voter's main concerns are economic. Hang on have we forgotten about 2022 where polling vastly overestimated the republican vote. Just remember inflation was far more worse then. Abortion was a major issue. It is this time around.

All surveys are within the margin of error and I suspect one person is in front for a comfortable victory but we cannot see this at present. Just think about this. A man who is a convicted criminal , who led a insurrection to ensure he illegally stayed in power and brazenly lies every day each day is neck and neck in the race!

I also wish to issue a mea culpa. I said previously once people saw how 'bad' Trump was at rallies his vote would slip. He is obviously in poor mental condition (euphemism) however it doesn't matter. It is just like his lies. Some people just don't care. Without wishing to invoke godwin's law republican voters are acting a lotl ike voters in Germany between the wars. They like dictators.( They actually approve of Putin more than Biden!)

some suggestions for the ABC

 The ABC is looking for some radio presenters. Richard Glover has run a very successful afternoon program on what I call 2BL in Sydney for some 20 years. He is leaving. Patricia Karvelas is leaving radio national breakfast. She was much better on afternoons than mornings.

Here are two suggestions.

Pur Hamish McDonald on radio national breakfast. He has done it in the past when the incumbent went on holidays and as I have said in the past he clearly has been superior. Make him permeant!

You need someone with personality on afternoons. Ellen Fanning has it in spades and her sense of humour is infectious. Chis Bath is very similar but she does not want a fulltime gig.

There you go ABC and I won't charge a fee!

A bit of this and a bit of that

 Problems in Marles office

The Chief of Staff is no longer working in Richard Marles office. She has accused staff of bullying her. come again. She was the boss. How can a boss be the recipient of bullying? Why has no-one asked this obvious question? Is it because she is a woman. It is a  long time since I walked the corridors of power but bullying and being a chief of staff went almost hand in hand in a Minister's office. Peta Credlin for example was accused of being a bully. I find this as basic journalism has not been applied to it. case to be very troublesome.

October7 anniversary

You cannot delete the deaths that have occurred because of the 'war' which was declared by Israel from the october7 massacre. No-one is suggesting Hamas being allowed back into power but the obvious question that Israel and its supports never wil aanswer is how many palestinian deaths are appropriate until the 'war' is finished. By the wat unless Israel is permanently asleep on the job another october 7 is impossible

Corrowa

We has several hundred white people want white supremacy. I suspect covid has allowed these people come out od the rock they were hiding under and go public with their racist beliefs. Hopefully this wil lnot persist.

Around the Traps 11/10/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Carol Johnston on failure-to-launch-why-the-albanese-government-is-in-trouble
• Grant Wyeth on does-finland-s-total-defence-doctrine-hold-lessons-australia
• John Quiggin on assessing-albanese-an-annotated-list
• Daniel Flitton on peter-varghese-constraining-china
• croaking cassandra on divisiveness-and-democracy , central-bank-policy-communications
• David Tuffley on the-australian-government-has-introduced-new-cyber-security-laws-heres-what-you-need-to-know
• Andrew Norton on international-student-caps-are-set-to-pass-parliament-ushering-in-a-new-era-of-bureaucratic-control

OZ Climate

• australias-largest-operating-wind-farm-sends-first-power-to-sunshine-state-grid
  
• renewable-penetration-record-falls-for-third-time-this-week-on-australias-main-grid
  
• origin-joins-green-hydrogen-exodus-dumps-risky-hunter-project-to-focus-on-renewables-storage
  
• coal-town-to-battery-base-firm-keen-to-make-regional-power-move
  
• one-of-australias-oldest-coal-generators-refused-bank-guarantees-operating-status-under-threat
  
• australias-big-battery-fleet-now-making-more-money-from-arbitrage-than-frequency-control
  
• we-cant-afford-to-fall-back-on-gas-to-fill-duttons-nuclear-gap
  
• coalition-claims-of-a-nuclear-power-renaissance-in-uk-further-expose-its-shameless-policy-con
  
• Peter Hannan on australias-coal-mines-and-gas-fields-may-be-emitting-twice-as-much-methane-as-declared-report-warns
• Ken Parish on nuclear-power-nirvana-or-nonsense
• Graham Readfearn on andrew-forrest-says-net-zero-is-fantasy-so-his-goal-is-real-zero-what-does-he-mean-and-can-he-achieve-it

Northern America

• institutional economics on maganomics-as-negative-supply-shock
• Brad De Long on prosperity-since-1900 , two-cheers-for-nate-silver-and-co , the-feds-year-ago-achieved-soft-landing
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-call-republican-justices-republicans
• Dahlia Lithwick on supreme-court-2024-election-plans
• noahopinion on lets-evaluate-kamala-harris-entire-economic -program , let-us-pause-to-appreciate-the-remarkable-US-economy , the-democrats-are-a-strong-party-the-republicans-are-a-weak-party , in-which-i-rebut-nate-silver-on-the-economy
• Lydia Khalil on trump-would-put-personality-over-policy-middle-east 
• Zachary Basu on trump-election-loss-republican-future
• Daniel Dale on politics/fact-check-trump-helene-response-north-carolina
• Mick Ryan on kamala-harris-ukraine-us-truly-committed-ukrainian-victory
• Peter Martin on from-mass-deportations-to-huge-tariff-hikes-heres-what-trumps-economic-program-would-do-to-the-us-and-australia
• Czeslaw Tubilewicz on governor-tim-walz-minnesota-s-relations-china
• Li Zhou on trump-hurricane-helene-fema-lies-debunked
• Umair Irfan on disaster-accountability-fema
• David Graham on trump-believability-gap
• Tom Nicholls on george-washington-nightmare-donald-trump
• David Reynolds on grant-vs-the-klan-soldier-of-destiny-ulysses-s-grant
• Tyler Cowen on joshua-rauh-on-fiscal-sustainability
• Mark Stern on clarence-thomas-kill-richard-glossip-supreme-court-arguments
• Jim Newell on hurricane-milton-helene-greene-musk-trump-fema-democrats-biden-harris
• Adam Tooze on hurricane-milton-helene-greene-musk-trump-fema-democrats-biden-harris.html
• the victory zone on update-new-ca-qsr-min-wage-study-a-victory-lap Thanks Brad
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-03

Europe

• Tyler Cowen on the-polity-that-is-russia-2
• Mainly Macro on why-are-conservatives-ignoring-the-median-voter
• Jennifer Parker on black-sea-battle-learning-right-maritime-lessons-ukraine

Asia

• Sussanah Patton on marking-time-asean-summit-laos
• Eyal Mayroz on a-year-of-devastation-with-hope-and-trust-shattered-what-can-bring-an-end-to-the-violence-in-israel-palestine
• Imad El-Anis on israeli-invasion-could-push-an-already-unstable-lebanon-over-the-edge-into-total-state-collapse
• Robert Grenier on israel-gaza-hezbollah-palestinians-netanyahu-iran-deterrence-occupation
• Eyal Mayroz on a-year-of-devastation-with-hope-and-trust-shattered-what-can-bring-an-end-to-the-violence-in-israel-palestine
• Joshua Keating on gaza-occupation-forever-war-israel
• Craig Mark on why-did-japans-new-leader-trigger-snap-elections-only-a-week-after-taking-office-and-what-happens-next
• Aryeh Neier on torture-in-israels-prisons
• Bernard Avishai on the-lede/why-netanyahu-wont-cease-fire
• CLM on china-s-economy-has-peaked-can-beijing-redefine-its-goals Thanks Brad
• Drezners world on big-developments-in-the-middle-east Thanks Brad
• Chietigh Bajpayee on india-s-never-ending-quest-global-status

Wonk

• Tim Harford on what-we-can-and-cant-say-about-what-we-do-and-dont-know
• sandwichman on three-fragments-rebooted-unfettering
• Joel Eisenberg on autocracy-will-bring-poverty
• noahopinion on what-if-everyone-is-wrong-about-what-AI-does
• Chris Armstrong on philosophy-public-affairs-is-not-dead-yet
• Mathew Sharpe on what-are-the-limits-of-free-speech-we-may-have-arrived-at-them
• Ian Hill on whither-the-brics
• the conversable economist on politically-homeless-in-the-land-of-economics , interview-with-paul-krugman-economic-geography-and-mysteries-of-productivity
• Tyler Cowen on how-economists-think-about-victims-of-natural-disasters
• Paul Griffin on one-of-sciences-greatest-achievements-how-the-rapid-development-of-covid-vaccines-prepares-us-for-future-pandemics
• Alex Tabarrok on the-economic-way-of-thinking-in-a-pandemic

General

• Jeremy Day on new-video-shows-sharks-making-an-easy-meal-of-spiky-sea-urchins-shedding-light-on-an-undersea-mystery
• Laura Drieseen on daylight-saving-is-about-to-start-but-why-do-the-days-get-longer

Climate

• real climate on cold-extremes-do-in-fact-decrease-under-global-warming
• skeptical science on you-wont-escape-climate-crisis , climate-made-helenes-rainfall-more-severe
• Thomas Newsome and William Ripple on unprecedented-peril-disaster-lies-ahead-as-we-track-towards-2-7-c-of-warming-this-century
• renew economy on global-shift-to-renewables-has-quickened-but-still-not-fast-enough-to-meet-crucial-climate-goals

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• elife-press-release-deterministic-thinking-led-to-a-nonsensical-statement
  
• salesses-some-writing-exercises-meant-to-help-students-with-various-elements-of-craft
  
• some-references-and-discussions-on-the-foundations-of-probability-not-the-math-so-much-as-its-connection-to-the-real-world-including-the-claim-that-praliens-exist-on-neptune-that-can-rap-battle
  
• honesty-and-transparency-are-not-enough-politics-edition
  
• a-quick-simulation-to-demonstrate-the-wild-variability-of-p-values
  
• defining-statistical-models-in-jax
  
• resp
  
• inaccurate_new_york
  
• update-on-that-politically-loaded-paper-published-in-demography-that-i-characterized-as-a-hack-job-further-post-publication-review
  

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• the-narrow-path-from-votes-of-despair
  
• Constance Grady on ta-nehisi-coates-the-message-review
• Tyler Cowen on the-value-of-books-on-tractors , what-ive-been-reading
• Ken Parish on house-of-grief
• Brad De Long on time-to-write-my-negative-review-of-Nate-Silvers-new-book

vox wonk

• international-trade-and-macroeconomic-dynamics-sanctions
  
• sharing-news-left-and-right
  
• underlying-inflation-zooming-goods-versus-services
  
• climate-beliefs-and-asset-prices
  
• spillovers-emerging-markets-and-investor-heterogeneity
  
• picture-income-inequality-and-middle-classes-across-eu
  
• war-and-transnational-reshoring
  
• addressing-banks-vulnerability-runs-part-1-facts-arguments-and-policy-challenges
  
• sino-eu-battery-electric-vehicle-dispute-mixing-tariff-and-non-tariff-measures
  
• hidden-giant-how-official-statistics-underestimate-true-scale-global-services-trade
  
• addressing-banks-vulnerability-runs-part-2-policy-options
  

the paradox of having little time

 When I first started writing on this blog I had little time. Despite this I found time to read on topics and then write about them. most of the time they were topics I needed to know about anyway however most of my writing occurred at night just before going to bed.

The paradox is now I have plenty of time to read and write yet struggle to write at times. Most of this could probably be explained by the lack of effort on my part. I think my interest is just not there sometimes. This might be explained by me getting older , perhaps by the world getting worse and being overwhelmed by events.

Let us look at some of the current events at present. The western world are afraid to allowing Ukraine to defend itself. Yeah they give them good weapons but there are strict directions on where they can use them. The Middle east shows us what occurs when two peoples who hate each other with a passion. A lot of innocent people die. I think it was Marx who opined the oppressed can be become the oppressors. This is undoubtedly true with regard to Israel. They most certainly di not learn that from the torah. Then we have the USA. how can a man who is a convicted criminal , lies like there is no tomorrow and whose lies are easily disproven be in a very close presidential race? It says a lot about the US electorate.

It is very easy to get depressed about current events. Perhaps that too is a reason for struggling to write.

John Quiggin is my age and he is still writing on so maybe I should see him as an example. Ken Parish is back in the game and he is older than I.  We shall see as I do have plenty of time!

( I was umpiring yesterday so that was the reason, not feeling sorry for myself!)

October 7 one year on

What can be said?

This was evil from start to finish. Murdering people simply because they were jewish. Worse some were palestinian sympathisers! Even worse Hamas knew what Israel would do in retaliation and yet they still went ahead and did this.

Hamas must never be in a leadership position in Gaza again. 

Yet the Israeli response was perhaps worse! why? It came from a 'civilised' country. Their response was to take little care of where civilians were when they attacked Hamas. This is confirmed in Lebanon as well. If we criticise Russia when they bomb hospitals and medical centres we must also condemn Israel.

The civilian death rate is appalling.

THIS might explain it.

Israel is quite plainly trying to 'egg' Iran to war. The Hezbollah rockets appear to be much overhyped. Israel appears impervious to any Iran backed organisation.

Yet when this ends Israel will have no friends in the Middle East. After a year Hamas is not destroyed but after the killing of all the palestinians we might get a Hamas 2.0. cogitate on that.

Israel is becoming an international pariah because of their military tactics.This is due to domestic politics.

In the end will Israel become safer in the area. A war against Iran would do this perhaps but at the cost of allies around the world.

It is a pity that jews do not read the torah as they call it. 

Around the Traps 4/10/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• nervous laughter on a-rick-by-the-same-name-smells-of-deceit Thanks Nick
• Michael Fullilove on how-australia-should-deal-trump
• croaking cassandra on inquiring-into-banking
• Peter Martin on more-than-430-000-australians-could-have-owned-their-own-home-today-if-not-for-7-prime-ministers-inaction
• James Cross on oil-prices-set-to-rise-as-middle-east-tensions-worsen-adding-to-cost-of-living-crisis

OZ climate

• australias-biggest-wind-farm-proposed-to-fill-gap-as-last-coal-generators-exit-grid
  
• south-australia-sets-spectacular-new-records-for-wind-solar-and-negative-demand
  
• coal-generators-are-learning-how-to-shut-down-for-solar-in-significant-boost-to-renewable-switch
  
• Mandy Freund on australia-may-be-facing-another-la-nina-summer-weve-found-a-way-to-predict-them-earlier-to-help-us-prepare
• Milton Speer and Lance Lelie on new-research-reveals-why-the-mighty-darling-river-is-drying-up-and-its-not-just-because-were-taking-too-much-water
• Adam Morton on amid-australias-chaotic-climate-politics-the-rooftop-solar-boom-is-an-unlikely-triumph

Northern America

• Michael Podhorser on trump-harris-polls-undecided-voters
• lawyers guns money on when-der-sturmer-meets-benny-hill Thanks Brad
• McKay Coppins on mitt-romney-trump Thanks Nick
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-what-we-now-know-about-jimmy-carters-presidency , guest-contribution-the-federal-funds-rate-fomc-projections-policy-rule-prescriptions-and-futures-market-predictions-from-the-september-2024-meeting
• Robert Waldmann on us-10-year-interest-rates
• Zeesham Aleem on jared-kushner-private-equity-firm-affinity-senate-investigation
• Jenny Gordon on kamala-harris-trade-better-alternative-not-much
• Shirin Ali on jack-smith-evidence-against-trump-public-2024
• Philip Johnson on mexico-has-a-trailblazing-new-president-but-does-she-have-any-new-ideas-to-tackle-spiralling-crime
• Roland Rajah on trumpian-economic-nationalism-not-what-world-or-america-needs
• Bill Haskell on manufactured-evidence-of-voter-fraud
• Kevin Drum on breaking-trump-says-kamala-is-a-faker
• Brad De Long on crosspost-kimberly-clausing-piie
• Dylan Scott on us-health-insurance-plans-medicare-medicaid
• Richard Hasen on trump-election-interference-trial-jack-smith-brief-supreme-court-failure
• David Frum on jd-vance-debate-reinvents
• David Dayen on donald-trump-doesnt-know-what-donald-trump-is-doing thanks Brad
• Glenn Kirschner on trump-immunity-jack-smith-brief-trial-redactions
• Alex Tabarrok on tariffs-hurt-manufacturing

Europe

• Christoph Bluth on ukraine-war-vladimir-putin-ups-the-ante-on-his-nuclear-blackmail-the-big-question-is-how-the-west-will-respond
• mainly macro on october-budget-5-uks-fiscal-rules-one-good-one-bad
• Mick Ryan on trump-may-surprise-us-ukraine-war
• Gary Young on scapegoating-the-immigrant-gary-younge

Asia

• institutional economics on china-syndrome-why-fiscal-stimulus-won't-cut-it
• Mirelle Rebeiz on does-hezbollah-represent-lebanon-and-what-impact-will-the-death-of-longtime-leader-hassan-nasrallah-have
• Adam Estes on hezbollah-lebanon-israel-hamas-palestine-gaza-iran-militia-group
• Ian Parmeter on benjamin-netanyahu-is-triumphant-after-hassan-nasrallahs-assassination-but-will-it-change-anything
• Mohammed Mhawish on israels-closure-al-jazeeras-ramallah-office-sends-chilling-message
• Sam Roggeveen on trump-asian-security
• Amin Saikal on israel-has-a-history-of-unsuccessful-invasions-of-lebanon-will-this-time-be-any-different
• Stacie Goddard on power-asia-pivots-paper-tigers-regional-poles
• Shahram Akbarzadeh on irans-leaders-have-everything-to-lose-in-a-direct-war-with-israel-why-take-such-a-massive-risk
• Peter Balonon-Rosen and Sean Rameswaram on hezbollah-israel-lebanon-airstrike-hassan-nasrallah
• Ikhtizard Ahmed on a-new-chapter-for-bangladesh
• Drezners world on big-developments-in-the-middle-east Thanks Brad
• Ran Porat on the-long-feared-middle-east-war-is-here-this-is-how-israel-could-now-hit-back-at-iran
• Ambika Vishwanath and Ruth Gamble on parting-waters-india-v-pakistan
• Richard McGregor on trump-win-splits-east-asian-triangle

Wonk

• yaw on economic-and-geopolitical-history-of-uganda Thanks Brad
• Chinchih Chen et al on Privacy-Regulation-and-Firm-Performance Thanks Brad
• Ravi Joseph on is-there-a-deep-state Thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on misinformed-about-misinformation
• noahopinion on once-again-imports-do-not-subtract-from-GDP , make-work-is-not-the-future-of-work
• the conversable economist on the-physicality-of-technology-the-high-frequency-trading-example
• Saam Roggeveen on chinese-subs-american-spies-both-get-sinking-feeling
• Tyler Cowen on the-dominance-of-large-factor-models-in-finance
• Eric Schiesser on on-robert-owen-and-the-history-of-experiments-in-living
• Tyler Cowen on economic-journal-watch-new-issue , incentives-matter-the-demand-curve-slopes-downward-mental-health-edition

General

• Noor Noman on maggie-smith-dies-89-downton-abbey
• Gordon Lister on why-is-mount-everest-so-big-new-research-highlights-a-rogue-river-but-deeper-forces-are-at-work
• Brad Tucker on scientists-have-found-carbon-dioxide-on-plutos-largest-moon-offering-clues-about-how-it-formed

Climate

• nuttin

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• 3-levels-of-fraud-one-time-linear-and-exponential
  
• fake-stories-in-purported-nonfiction
  
• pete-rose
  
• wb
  
• Kaiser Fung on know-your-data-41-the-lesser-evil , know-your-data-.42

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• the-welcome-application-of-good-sense-to-ai-hype
  
• Brad De Long on review-galloping-through-history
• Andrew Gelman on hudson
• Joel Eissenberg on the-achilles-trap

Vox Wonk

• organised-crime-violence-and-support-state
  
• banks-should-lock-profits-buffers-rainy-days
  
• mind-gap-gauging-fiscal-monetary-tensions-through-fiscal-r-star
  
• politicisation-social-responsibility
  
• addressing-lingering-effects-colonial-influence-educational-institutions
  
• how-machine-learning-aiding-fight-against-mafia-infiltration-italy
  
• banks-climate-commitments-and-green-transition
  
• revisiting-signalling-channel-quantitative-easing
  
• measuring-economic-losses-caused-climate-change
  
• state-dependent-exchange-rate-pass-through