Uhlmann flops

 I had better things to do last night but Graham Readfearn helps us understand what Chris Uhlmann obviously doesn't.

Just a couple of things. Blaming renewables for the large rise in energy prices is obvious lying.

The private sector do not want to build coal fired power stations, see no future in nuclear and only want gas fired power stations for firming.

The present government does not have a 100% target of renewables. The target is 82%!

We have yet to experience a blackout because of renewables. We have had black outs because of units breaking down' however. This of course has been blamed on renewables by Sky afterdark and others.

Fancy that

Was there a jewhunt?

 I have read and watched quite a few programs outlining how there was a jewhunt in Amsterdam.

Except there wasn't. The alleged evidence was quite the opposite. See Mediawatch.

It was not palestinians violently attacking jewish football fans. In fact it was jewish football fans attacking palestinians.

Whoopsy how did that occur. I really do not know. It is interesting the UK Sky news completely changed how it presented this to go from being accurate to be completely inaccurate.

Indeed I think we can confidently say this all started by jewish football fans started this whole things by their actions and words. This does not mean the actions of Palestinians in amsterdam were  okay. they were not.

I go back to my main question. Why di so many media organisations get it wrong. The other thing is wil they learn from this at all

NATO expansion had nothing to do with russia's invasion

 One of the excuses Russian apologists ( or worse)  such as Tulsi Gabbard frequently talk about is that the expansion of NATO meant Russia had no choice but to invade Ukraine.

This is complete BS.

NATO like most military treaties is a DEFENSIVE treaty. It can ONLY be invoked if the country is attacked. It cannot be invoked if  country attacks another country.

Therefore NATO posed no threat to Russia. The only problem Russia faced is a lot of countries wanted to join NATO to ensure Russia did not attack them. The invasion of Ukraine showed these fears were well justified.

The clown show arrives

 If it wasn't serious it would be hilarious.

The person nominated to head Defence, the largest bureaucracy in the USA, has NO administrative experience. 

The person nominated to head up national intelligence has NO experience at all and blabs out constantly russian propaganda on Ukraine.

The person to head up Homeland Security has little experience in administering a large department.

The person to head up Health and Human services is a nutter who is an antivaxxer nor likes fluoride in water for starters!

His nomination  for attorney general could not even get a start up job at the DOJ and has a mere two that's right two years experience as a lawyer.

And you think elon Musk is intelligent? Try THIS and THIS for starters.

Trump has chosen loyalty over competence and it will end badly. As I have said previously his economic program is incoherent. When it fails as it will there wil be quite a few firings.

I might end by saying Trump is simply an old fashioned mafia boss. Just do what he says. The problem he and his minions have is that prosecutions needs both the law and evidence behind that law. They do not have it and again this too will mean sackings!

Around the Traps 15/11/24

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie, Oy,Oy,Oy

• Martin Murray on bill-kelty-the-romantic-warrior-talks-tough Thanks Nick
• Jon Beves and William Donald on black-balls-on-sydney-beaches-are-likely-fatbergs-showing-traces-of-human-faeces-methamphetamine-and-pfas-new-analysis
• Ross Gittins on how-we-measure-recessions-is-wrong , will-trump-be-disastrous-for-our-economy-I-doubt-it , education-is-leading-the-two-sides-of-politics-to-switch-sides , how-can-jobs-and-joblessness-both-be-going-up
• Kevin Bonham on the-pressure-valve-does-defeat-of-same-state-governments-help-or-hinder-federal-governments
• Susannah Patton on cost-albanese-skipping-prabowo-s-inauguration
• Mark the Ballot on new-polls-newspoll-and-resolve
• Greg Jericho on private-health-insurance-is-a-dud-thats-why-a-majority-of-australians-dont-have-it , rba-wage-price-index-interest-rates-inflation-september-quarter
• Anne Twomey on how-the-federal-governments-misinformation-bill-might-impede-freedom-of-speech
• Phillippa Specker et al on we-knew-offshore-detention-was-bad-for-the-mental-health-of-people-seeking-asylum-our-new-research-shows-exactly-how-bad
• Ross Garnaut on us-election-australia-trade-climate-donald-trump-ross-garnaut-economy
• Michelle Grattan on former-us-ambassador-accuses-sky-news-of-creating-a-self-licking-ice-cream-to-attack-kevin-rudd
• Dennis Muller on how-should-australian-media-cover-the-next-federal-election-lessons-from-the-us-presidential-race
• David Schafer on will-intelligence-review-bring-dio-light
• Greg Earl on economic-diplomacy-it-s-populists-vs-plutocrats-trump2
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-labor-loses-lead

Oz climate

• land-deal-signed-for-deep-storage-to-create-broken-hill-mini-grid-but-network-rules-still-stand-in-the-way
  
• not-always-a-great-quality-leading-wind-developer-may-switch-from-western-to-chinese-turbines
  
• wind-and-solar-take-record-93-7-per-cent-share-of-australias-biggest-coal-grid
  
• nsw-biggest-winner-wind-gets-priority-over-solar-as-bowen-lands-renewable-tender-deals
  
• terrific-news-battery-boom-and-rebound-in-wind-projects-put-renewables-target-back-on-track
  
• australian-wind-and-solar-project-sized-at-remarkable-70-gigawatts-as-big-as-the-countrys-main-grid
  
• australian-wind-and-solar-project-sized-at-remarkable-70-gigawatts-as-big-as-the-countrys-main-grid
  
• the-mega-battery-projects-jockeying-for-position-in-renewable-zones-that-might-be-too-small
  
• Peter Hannan on renewable-energy-scare-campaign-adds-apples-and-oranges-to-get-500bn

Northern America

• institutional economic on so-much-winning-youre-not-going-to-believe-it
• Menzie Chinn on analyses-on-the-impacts-of-trumps-proposed-ultimate-solution , did-the-trade-balance-improve-with-tariffs-did-imports-fall-did-ag-exports-rise , further-dollar-appreciation-implications
• noahopinion on identity-politics-isnt-working , americans-hate-inflation-more-than-they-hate-unemployment , the-educated-professional-class-is-out-of-touch-with-middle class-america , the-blue-cities-must-be-fixed
• Nadira Goffe on election-results-2024-trump-harris-race-black-women
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-donald-trump-tariffs-inflation-economy
• Tyler Cowen on tariff-sentences-to-ponder, new-results-on-tariff-history , j-zachary-mazlish-on-median-wages-under-biden
• Brad De Long on 2024-election-surveys-show-trump-voters-misinformed-on-major-issues
• Mainly Macro on how-could-they-vote-for-him
• Joel Eissenberg on the-economics-of-deportation
• Abdallah Fayyad on trump-harris-biden-palestinians-gaza-election
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-03-in-october
• Astra Taylor et al on the-return-of-trump-v
• Mark Stern on matt-gaetz-donald-trump-attorney-general-disaster
• Fred Kaplan on trump-cabinet-tulsi-gabbard-hegseth-defense-military-intelligence

Europe

• Katherina Karcher on why-the-german-government-collapsed-and-what-to-expect-now
• Francesco Taylor on germanys-post-holocaust-moral-remaking-is-being-challenged-by-the-rise-of-the-far-right-and-wars-in-gaza-and-ukraine
• Marcus Colla on the-claustrophobia-of-german-politics
• Fred Kaplan on trump-election-results-patrushev-putin-rubio-russia-ukraine

Asia

• Ooi Hin on malaysia-s-democratic-transition-why-it-matters-southeast-asia-muslim-world
• Sussannah Patton on thai-foreign-policy-twilight-zone
• Stephanie Fillion on declining-fortunes-afghanistan-s-women
• Hannah Lord on southeast-asia-ready-regional-power-grid

Wonk

• persuasion on how-to-fix-dei Thanks Nick
• Lynn Goldsworthy et al on fundamental-governing-principle-antarctic-treaty-system-under-threat
• the conversable economist on are-theme-park-rides-a-giffen-good , nordhaus-reflects-on-technology-and-climate-change
• Tyler Cowen on what-do-unions-do
• Mathew Sussex on a-grand-bargain-with-putin-to-confrontation-with-china-3-ways-trump-may-change-americas-place-in-the-world
• Rose Luo et al on can-you-die-from-long-covid-the-answer-is-not-so-simple
• Geoff Raby on west-s-unfounded-chussia-anxiety
• Karen Thompson on the-incas-used-mysterious-stringy-objects-called-khipus-to-record-data-we-just-got-a-step-closer-to-understanding-them
• Brad De Long on are-the-tech-titans-mighty-enough-to-break-the-threatened-NVDIA/AI-fetters
• John Voight on a-41-million-digit-prime-number-is-the-biggest-ever-found-but-mathematicians-search-for-perfection-will-continue
• Max Sawicky on politics-after-fascism-debate
• Scott French on what-are-tariffs

General

• Scott McLean on with-its-10th-coach-in-a-decade-is-manchester-united-trapped-in-a-fixes-that-fail-cycle
• Tim Harford on if-i-want-to-get-fitter-should-i-wear-a-fitness-watch

Climate

• Ryan Neelam on what-trump-s-win-means-global-climate-negotiations
• Matt McDonald on the-cop29-climate-talks-are-about-to-kick-off-in-baku-azerbaijan-heres-what-to-expect
• Wesley morgan and Jim Newell on 10-reasons-why-us-president-elect-donald-trump-cant-derail-global-climate-action
• David Appell on copernicus-2024-likely-first-year-above-1.5C
• moyhu on giss-october-global-temperature-up-from-september
• ocean acidification on drivers-of-biological-diversity-and-responses-to-global-changes-in-marine-invertebrates
• essays concerning on can-king-donald-hold-back-the-green-tide
• skeptical science on 2024-above-15C , 20-fact-briefs-published
• Pep Canadell et al on global-carbon-emissions-inch-upwards-in-2024-despite-progress-on-evs-renewables-and-deforestation
• Adam Hanieh on the-climate-finance-racket
• Umair Irfan on cop29-climate-change-emissions-rising-trump-baku

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• bad-science-as-genre-fiction
  
• two-spans-of-the-bridge-of-inference
  
• if-you-wanted-to-be-a-top-tennis-player-in-the-late-1930s-there-was-a-huge-benefit-to-being-a-member-of-____-or-to-being-named
  
• polling-by-asking-people-about-their-neighbors-when-does-this-work
  
• prediction-markets-in-2024-and-poll-aggregation-in-2008
  
• meta-analysis-with-a-single-study
  
• specification-curve-analysis-and-the-multiverse
  
• make-a-hypothesis-about-what-you-expect-to-see-every-step-of-the-way-a-manifesto
  
• objects-of-the-class-david-owen
  
• calibration-for-everyone-and-every-decision-maybe
  
• Freakometrics on algorithms and bureaucracy, selection bias in insurance

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• nuttin

vox wonk

• dangerous-liaisons-debt-supply-and-convenience-yield-spillovers-euro-area
  
• role-shipping-costs-platform-retail-competition
  
• european-court-calls-foul-fifas-transfer-fee-regulations
  
• russias-economic-war-propaganda
  
• trade-spillovers-industrial-policy
  
• trade-and-inclusiveness
  
• beneath-surface-what-medieval-mobility-reveals-about-intergenerational-wealth
  
• enhancing-resilience-and-security-eu-supply-chains
  
• financial-accelerator-within-and-between-countries
  
• womens-political-representation-matters-evidence-school-closures-during-pandemic
  
• bad-samaritans-foreign-aid
  
• financing-europes-grand-ideas
  
• heterogeneous-effects-monetary-tightening-response-energy-price-shocks
  
• evaluation-new-international-policy-instrument-curb-offshore-tax-evasion-global
  
• rethinking-pension-reform-new-cepr-ebook
  

Wages data supports a rate cut

 The wages data was released yesterday. It is rising at 3.5%. This is consistent with a 2-3% inflation target.

I tend to agree with most but not all of what Greg Jericho says. 

I am disappointed with the RBA. They appear on the surface to lack any corporate knowledge of the recession we had to have or of what occurs in labour markets.

Inflation is falling, the wage data backs that up. so do business surveys. so does a look inside the CPI.

Unfortunately we have to wait until february for a rate cut.

The ALP is NOT an incumbent government.

 Almost all governments who were in government when Covid hit have lost elections. ( Switzerland is the odd man out.) Inflation which rose rapidly because of supply chain problems and then the Russian invasion of Ukraine appears to be the main culprit of why these governments have fallen.

Inflation was rising way before the ALP was elected. This was the result of the above however we can say the RBA was way too slow in raising rates  and the previous LNP government di not attempt any fiscal consolidation following the pandemic.

Now it could well be the case the ALP is blamed for this but this can only occur if the ALP are incompetent at political messaging.

They inherited a large budget deficit. they made some minor corrections and the budget balanced for two years. The structural deficit only marginally fell.

We shall see if the ALP is good or bad at political messaging soon!