what happened

 Let's see

Trump is a convicted criminal. It did not matter

Trump led an insurrection . It did not matter

Trump lies like there is no tomorrow. It did not matter

Trump's econom ic program is nots. It did not matter.

Trump wants to prosecute his political opponents. It did not matter.

Harris way outperformed Trump in the campaign. It did not matter

Harris smashed Trump in the edebate. It did not matter

On the economy Steve Rattner showed some graphs on surveys of US voters some time ago on morning joe. They think unemployment is at record highs. It was at record lows. They think inflation is rising to new highs. It is falling within the FED's preferred range. They believe the stock market is at record lows. It is at record highs.

See Andrew Gelman on the election as a bonus.

We do have a problem. Trump is a moron as Rex Tillerson colourfully put it one time. I suspect all hell will break loose. Putting at 20% tariff is madness , is illegal under WTO rules and will exacerbate a world trade war. That plus more severe tariffs on chinese goods and services is bad for the chinese economy and thus ours.

His tax and spending plans  will balloon the deficit offsetting the deflationary effects of putting 'illegal migrants into intern camps and thus severely tightening the labour market.

Look out

I agree with Ross Gittins

 Ross Gittins has a good article principally on inflation.

I think he should have added the LNP government made NO attempt to reduce the deficit when it was clear the worst of the pandemic effects were over and the economy was good.

He also could have added it is very hard for a government to respond to a central bank raising interest rates if nothing has been done.

Lastly he could have added all those saying there should be a much tighter budget are saying they support bringing on a recession.

The US election

 Okay let us be truthful. no-one but no-0ne knows what will occur tomorrow.

No-one who has a brain could vote for Donald Trump. The man has no character. He holds rallies full of hate ,vile and venom towards all his 'enemies'. If you do not believe fact checkers about trump lies then 3 juries and a Judge have found trump lied about fraud, sexual assault on a woman and falsifying business documents.

If that doesn't count a 20% tariff on ALL imports would have catastrophic affects. It would increase the prices of consumer goods, it would increase the prices of inputs to business and worst of all it would lead to and international trade war.

He would vastly reduce the US labour force by evicting illegal and legal migrants to the US who are vital to having a flexible labour force.

His spending and tax proposals would put the deficit and debt into the Stratosphere.

Harris has a few advantages. Her campaign is peaking now. Trump is now a tired and angry old man speaking rambling incoherent sentences.

Her main supporters are women who WILL vote. She has a very good back up in volunteers who will get out people to vote.

We shall see

Whoopsy. I should add two things. Two examples of how Trump has no character. He simulates fellatio on a microphone and he swears in a church and gets the congregation to swear back at him!

Lastly no-one apparently remembers 2022 mid terms. Poll after poll told us the major issues were inflation , immigration crime etc.. They weren't

Whoopsy 2 

Trump has never got above 47/48 % of the vote. A poll which has him at say 50% but has a 5 MOE means that vote could be either 55% or 45%. Cogitate on that.

solar power could have big indirect benefits

 THIS is interesting. We knew already solar power and sheep farming were good partners. Solar produces a lot of condensation which produces grass. Sheep love grass. It COULD be that the wool produced is  very top notch.

Interesting

Around the Traps 1/11/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• John Kandulu et al on why-building-more-big-dams-is-a-costly-gamble-for-our-future-water-security-and-the-environment
• Jocelyne Basseal and Ben Marias on australias-covid-inquiry-shows-why-a-permanent-centre-for-disease-control-is-more-urgent-than-ever
• William Partlett on in-failing-to-probe-robodebt-australias-anti-corruption-body-fell-at-the-first-hurdle-it-now-has-a-second-chance
• John Hawkins on inflation-is-sinking-ever-lower-now-that-its-official-whats-the-rba-going-to-do
• Neil Sima and Pap Canadell on state-of-the-climate-2024-australia-is-enduring-harsher-fire-seasons-more-ocean-heatwaves-and-sea-level-rise
• Michelle Grattan on inquiry-warns-distrustful-public-wouldnt-accept-covid-measures-in-future-pandemic
• Saam Roggeveen on costs-vs-benefits-pat-conroy-s-new-missile-age
• Greg Jericho on labor-inflation-energy-rebates-rba-interest-rates-cuts
• Helen Spiropolous and Rebecca Bachman on the-big-4-accounting-firms-often-consult-for-the-same-clients-they-audit-should-that-be-allowed
• Michela Mariani et al on ancient-mud-reveals-australias-burning-history-over-the-past-130-000-years-and-shows-a-way-through-our-fiery-future

OZ Climate

• broken-hill-has-a-wind-farm-a-solar-farm-and-a-big-battery-so-why-are-the-lights-out
  
• from-zero-to-100-pct-renewables-in-just-20-years-south-australias-remarkable-energy-transition
  
• energy-regulator-joins-probe-into-reasons-for-lengthy-blackouts-in-storm-hit-broken-hill
  
• australias-first-commercial-solar-thermal-heat-plant-to-slash-gas-use-at-mars-factory
  
• big-batteries-lead-renewable-charge-as-record-45-gigawatts-of-new-capacity-seeks-grid-connection
  
• death-spiral-network-blows-up-renewable-gas-claims-wants-to-hit-consumers-for-cost-of-stranded-assets
  
• ontarios-huge-nuclear-debt-and-other-things-dutton-doesnt-understand-about-cost-of-electricity
  
• Jamie Pittock and Andrew Blakers on queensland-election-signals-both-major-parties-accept-pumped-hydro-and-the-renewable-energy-transition-as-inevitable
• Adam Morton on peter-dutton-nuclear-power-plan-coal
• Graham Readfearn on wicked-problem-five-charts-that-show-how-the-climate-crisis-is-making-australia-more-dangerous

Northern America

• Tom Ginsberg and Aziz Huq on trump-second-term-graver-threat-to-democracy-than-first Thanks Nick
• John Kruzel on american-voters-largely-united-against-partisan-gerrymandering-polling-shows Thanks Nick
• Dennis Muller on two-of-the-uss-biggest-newspapers-have-refused-to-endorse-a-presidential-candidate-this-is-how-democracy-dies
• Kathryn Schumaker and Allyson Shortle on most-republican-states-have-made-voting-harder-since-2020-our-research-shows-how-successful-theyve-been
• noahopinion on why-americas-future-could-hinge-on-the-future-if-elon-musk , on-immigration-what-americans-want-is-democratic-control , if-trump-loses-the-election-our-nation-caan-finally-rest , thinking-about-temporary-hardship
• new deal democrat on why-has-the-inverted-yield-curve-failed-a-fundamentals-based-explanation
• Nathaniel Rakich on states-accurate-polls
• Jianxin Wang on how-do-us-presidential-elections-affect-the-economy-and-the-stock-market
• Andrew Prokop on stephen-miller-mass-deportation-camps-trump-agenda
• Geoff Boucher on is-donald-trump-a-fascist-no-hes-a-new-brand-of-authoritarian
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-bush-gore-harris-trump-coup-steal-election , supreme-court-voter-purge-virginia-beals-coalition-immigrant
• Joel Eissenberg on elon-musk-cant-do-arithmetic , no-overregulation-isnt-crushing-the-american-free-market
• the conversable economist on the-national-childcare-program-during-world-war-ii , a-federal-guarantee-of-paid-vacation
• Nicole Narea on trump-tony-hinchcliffe-puerto-rico-latinos-pennsylvania , 2024-election-violence-trump-loses-extremism-civil-war
• Ryan Beckworth on trump-repeal-20th-century-campaign-promises
• Carol Johnston on gender-is-playing-a-crucial-role-in-this-us-election-and-its-not-just-about-kamala-harris
• Markus Wagner on in-2020-trump-went-to-the-courts-after-losing-this-time-the-legal-challenges-have-already-started
• Soren Karau and Johannes Fischer on what-financial-markets-say-about-economic-implications-potential-trump-election
• Richard Hasen on ballot-box-fires-oregon-washington-early-voting-safety
• Mark Stern on us-presidential-election-supreme-court-virginia-voter-rolls-purge
• Dahlia Lithwick on donald-trump-election-2024-democracy-press-vote-law
• Jonathan Mingle on planet-2025-trump-climate
• Fintan O'Toole on the-protection-racket
• Rachel Monroe on the-conservative-strategy-to-ban-abortion-nationwide
• Skanda Amarmarth on stagnation-gone-and-us-productivity-growing
• John Hart on explainer-a-short-history-of-the-electoral-college-and-how-it-subverts-the-will-of-voters
• Menzie Chinn and Mark Copelovitch on the-economy-would-grow-under-harris-under-trump-expect-higher-prices-and-debt
• Jeet Heer on trump-billionaire-plutocracy-musk
• Michael Podhorzer on huge-problem-polls-trumps-mass-deportation-plan

Europe

• Menzie Chinn on if-the-official-inflation-rate-is-correct-the-real-policy-rate-in-russia-is-now-12-4
• Frank Ledwidge on ukraine-cannot-defeat-russia-the-best-the-west-can-do-is-help-kyiv-plan-for-a-secure-post-war-future
• Luane Geiger on russia-struggles-ukraine-north-korea-benefits
• Timothy Ash on homage-to-kharkiv
• Mainly Macro on a-budget-that-points-way-but-doesnt-get-us-very-far

Asia

• Andrew Thomas on Israel-and-iran-are-playing-a-dangerous-game-of-chicken-that-will-be-impossible-to-contain-forever
• Rahman Yacob on prabowo-s-china-challenge-around-natuna-islands
• Mahbi Maulaya on china-south-china-sea-tailoring-history-propaganda
• Rahul Jaybhay on india-s-historic-shift-attitude-about-us-base-diego-garcia
• Srijan Shukla on managing-india-s-labour-troubles
• Greg Earl on asia-s-year-electoral-upsets

Wonk

• institutional economics on nice-pro-cyclical-asset-youve-got there
• internal exile on habermas-machines Thanks Nick
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-the-economics-nobel-prize-and-settler-mortality
• Jonathan Waters and Graham McCulloch on stoneflies-change-colour-in-response-to-deforestation-suggesting-humans-can-alter-evolution-new-research
• Tim Harford on should-everyone-earn-their-pay-rise
• Flora Salim on what-is-ai-superintelligence-could-it-destroy-humanity-and-is-it-really-almost-here
• Aiden Warren and Charles Hunt on what-trump-return-might-mean-aukus-quad
• Maria Yanotti on what-are-veblen-and-giffen-goods
• Sunaina Kumar on greater-g20-brics-brics-global-south-led-reform-international-governance 
• Chris Bertram on what-happens-if-americans-claim-asylum-from-a-trump-regime
• Thomas Lalevee on liberal-societies-are-under-siege-from-authoritarians-and-extreme-capitalism-but-self-help-for-liberals-wont-fix-us
• the conversable economist on the-fourth-industrial-revolution-and-the-future-of-work

General

• Luis Marin and Miguel Rentaria on how-do-genes-shape-the-structures-in-our-brains-we-studied-70-000-people-and-found-new-links-to-adhd-and-parkinsons
• Shane Rogers et al on 6-reasons-why-people-enjoy-horror-movies
• Reidar Lystad on olympic-athletes-live-much-longer-than-average-joes-but-elite-afl-and-rugby-union-players-dont
• Tirth Haishnav on collisions-between-planes-and-birds-follow-seasonal-patterns-and-overlap-with-breeding-and-migration-new-research

Climate

• skeptical science on is-climate-change-fuelling-mega-hurricanes , hidden-health-toll-hurricanes
• Andrew King and Tito Ziehn on earths-climate-will-keep-changing-long-after-humanity-hits-net-zero-emissions-our-research-shows-why
• Brook Williams and Robin Chazdon on 215-million-hectares-of-forest-an-area-bigger-than-mexico-could-grow-back-by-itself-if-we-can-just-leave-it-alone
• ocean acidification on experimental-coral-reef-communities-transform-yet-persist-under-mitigated-future-ocean-warming-and-acidification

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• this-one-might-possibly-be-interesting
  
• reduce-likelihood-of-a-tick-bite-by-73-6-times-forking-paths-on-the-appalachian-trail
  
• nyt-catches-up-to-statistical-modeling-causal-inference-and-social-science
  
• freakonomics-does-it-again-not-in-a-good-way-jeez-these-guys-are-credulous
  
• a-polling-question-for-nate-cohn-at-the-new-york-times
  
• what-makes-an-mcmc-sampler-gpu-friendly
  
• leave-one-out-cross-validation-loo-for-an-astronomy-problem
  
• stan-playground-run-stan-on-the-web-play-with-your-program-and-data-at-will-and-no-need-to-download-anything-on-your-computer
  
• small potatoes on progressives-should-worry-more-about-more-thn-their-favourite-scientific-findings Thanks Nick
• Freakometrics on more neurons in the hidden layer than predictive features in neural nets

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• nuttin

vox wonk

• currency-denomination-foreign-exchange-reserves-taboo-past-towards-disclosure-and
  
• temporary-employment-puts-drag-wage-growth-macroeconomic-consequences
  
• populisms-original-sin-short-term-economic-consequences-populist-policy
  
• what-financial-markets-say-about-economic-implications-potential-trump-election
  
• intergenerational-poverty-persistence-europe-and-great-gatsby-curve
  
• health-inequality-and-economic-disparities-race-ethnicity-and-gender
  
• double-registration-and-strategic-voting-across-state-lines
  
• institutions-and-prosperity-2024-nobel-laureates
  
• counting-undead-new-metric-identifying-zombie-firms
  
• eea-minorities-economics-professional-climate-survey-summary
  
• promoting-and-taxing-investment-uk-budget
  
• foreign-aid-and-root-causes-migration
  
• us-electoral-impact-remote-work-and-inter-state-migration
  
• bank-specialisation-and-zombie-lending
  

domestic politics

 albo and quatas

This story never made any sense. No CEO would have the time to do what was alleged. He has much more important thin ngs to do. It took time But Albo has concluded from all his communications the alleged incidents did not happen. Perhaps someone should have sniffed this since Aston who made the allegation is not close to either albo or joyce.  A long time ago when I was studying for an MBA ( and there was no chairman's lounge we found out that Quatas targeted high volume customers with upgrades.

CPI

Inflation figures came out and confirmed that inflation is slowing now. what will the RBA do. you do not wait for inflation to fall to the desired range to start cutting rates. you only need to be confident that inflation will make it there. Waiting until you see the whites of their eyes could put the economy into recession. All business surveys confirm cost pressures are falling and in some cases fast.

NACC

It falls at the first hurdle

The climate is getting hotter

THIS is not good news.

Covid measures could have been better

 We had a report released yesterday reviewing covid measures.

I am sympathetic to the leaders at the time. They had little idea of what to do apart from observing what was occurring overseas and thus do what was working there.

It is easy being a monday morning quarterback as the yanks would say. I'm not criticizing the report merely making an observation.

Also important is that most australians did not want many to die from covid initially but then when the vaccines came grew more ambivalent. 

Hopefully when the next pandemic occurs we will be better prepared.