The election

 If you are watching the election with glee then you need to read:

• Kevin Bonham who writes semi-regularly on the polls
• Mark the Ballot who is writing almost every day on the polls.

I do have a confession to make. I was a politics junkie although I do not think I am at present. I am only glancing at election articles. I do see the polls have changed in the ALP's favour. I suspect this has to do with the coalition having no detail on any policies at present and hence people are giving different interpretations of policies. Albo is campaigning with confidence he did not have in the last election where he was ordinary.

Dutton has been poor and his confidence has been shot. Having to do not one but two backflips can only make the coalition look as though they are not ready for Government.

Trump will have a large influence on this election and this is not good for the LNP. most Aussies do not want a bar of him. However there is a group in the LNP who love him so Dutton has to step very carefully. It is not a coincidence that the trend to the ALP has coincided with Trump's lunacy.

My voting philosophy is very easy. No party should be in power for more than two terms. On this basis I shall be voting ALP this election but LNP next election if the ALP win.

I live in Bennelong and the local member ( Jerome Laxale) is excellent. The LNP candidate has been in the news for the $60k he cannot account for in the last state election when he contested Chris Minns. He has 'volunteers' everywhere and every day. I cannot imagine they would be doing it for nothing either.

Bring on May 3rd!

The Trump tariffs

 Okay here are a few articles on this shemozzle.

• Kruggers
• Tyler Cowen
• Timothy Taylor
• Niven Winchester
• Richard Partington
• Brad De Long
• Stephen Kirchner

It is a breath-taking example of ignorance meeting incompetence. Trump has no idea of economics and thus does not understand how tariffs are bad for the USA and what a trade war actually means. The mickey mouse calculations of other countries 'tariffs' show Trump's evidence is not evidence at all.

Take a very simple example. Coffee will cost more. The USA cannot really make coffee duh!

About 40% of total imports for the USA are inputs for business. They wil ALL go up!

Greg Mankiw was right

Stevie Ray Vaughn

 I do like this guitarist. this is one of my favourites.

Rude Mood!

He was one of the greats

what happens to his cig?????

Around the Traps 4/4/25

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Bernard Keane on kpmg-exposed-dodgy-hobart-afl-stadium-report Thanks Nick
• Fei Gao and Andrew Terrey on tobacco-excise-revenue-has-tanked-amid-a-booming-black-market-thats-a-diabolical-problem-for-the-government
• Brendan Coates et al on 25-years-into-a-new-century-and-housing-is-less-affordable-than-ever
• John Hawkins and Yogi Vidyattama on we-calculated-how-much-duttons-excise-cut-would-save-you-on-fuel-and-few-will-save-as-much-as-promised
• Wesley Morgan on dutton-unveils-plan-to-force-more-gas-into-australian-market-and-expand-production-in-major-pre-election-pitch
• Ross Gittins on budget-deficit-perfection-would-be-nice , are-you-better-off-now-thats-duttons-trick-question , the-fine-print-costing-australians-a-pay-rise
• Mark the Ballot on day-5-2025-federal-election , day-6-2025-federal-election
• Intifar Chowdhury on sweet-deals-sour-times-australia-s-blind-eye-trumponomics
• Peter Dean on defence-is-shaping-up-to-be-a-key-election-issue-whether-politicians-like-it-or-not
• Sam Roggeveen on yes-australia-can-defend-itself-independently
• Mercedes Page on australia-s-foreign-policy-reckoning-time-new-white-paper
• Greg Jericho on you-never-know-what-youre-gonna-get-australians-will-have-to-wait-until-after-the-election-to-see-if-theres-a-rate-cut
• croaking cassandra on reserve-bank-bank-capital-etc
• Ketan Joshi on coalitions-ted-obrien-admits-why-gas-is-a-disaster-for-energy-prices , coalition-leans-on-absurd-gas-definition-for-fossil-subsidy-bonanza
• Roland Rajah on trump-s-tariffs-australia-hit-stick-while-our-region-was-clobbered

OZ Climate

• low-rooftop-pv-tariffs-mean-solar-houses-are-subsidising-everyone-elses-power-supply
• how-cheap-is-peter-duttons-gas-and-how-does-it-compare-to-reckless-renewables
  
• origin-backed-energy-storage-start-up-unveils-breakthrough-redox-flow-battery
  
• no-more-fossil-gasplaining-going-electric-is-past-the-tipping-point-and-guaranteed-to-slash-cost-of-living
  
• origin-chooses-not-to-tap-taxpayer-funds-for-first-year-of-eraring-coal-plants-extended-operations
  
• really-terrible-bad-location-could-triple-cost-of-pumped-hydro-project-favoured-by-lnp
  
• social-hour-at-the-gas-rodeo-why-the-market-is-broken
  
• worlds-biggest-gold-miner-signs-up-to-buy-green-power-from-was-biggest-wind-farm
  
• from-video-ezy-to-netflix-report-offers-three-easy-reforms-to-get-nem-back-to-the-future
  
• another-big-battery-joins-the-grid-as-charging-and-discharging-records-fall-across-the-country
  
• victoria-needs-at-least-another-2-gw-of-committed-capacity-before-next-coal-closure-says-state-energy-chief
  
• Tony Wood on peter-dutton-gas-power-plan-comment
• Felicity Deane on under-a-coalition-government-the-fate-of-australias-central-climate-policy-hangs-in-the-balance
• Steve Turton on torrential-rains-created-devastating-inland-seas-in-outback-queensland-soon-they-will-fill-kati-thanda-lake-eyre

Northern America

• institutional economics on american-juche
• Roger Berkovitz on democracy-and-dissent Thanks Nick
• noahopinion on understanding-americas-new-right , the-latest-episode-of-mad-king-trump , tariffs-another-american-act-of-intentional-self harm
• angry bear on why-we-shouldnt-deport-undocumented-immigrants
• Chris Bertram on trumps-war-on-immigrants-is-the-cancellation-of-free-society
• Ben Hammond on voice-of-america-took-jazz-behind-the-iron-curtain-now-its-demise-signals-the-end-of-us-soft-power
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-donald-trump-law-firms-arrogant
• Zack Beauchamp on trump-arrest-student-tufts-rumeysa-ozturk , trump-tariff-loomer-kennedy
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on paul-clement-vs-donald-trump-big-law-firms
• Shirin Ali on trump-executive-order-voting-machines-fail
• Andrew Prokop on trump-retribution-targeting-israel-critics-biglaw-weissmann
• Menzie Chinn on james-hamilton-are-consumer-sentiment-studies-a-good-measure-of-the-economy
• croaking cassandra on farewell-to-orr, not-much-parliamentary-scrutiny
• Kruggers on balance-of-payments-primer-part-i Thanks Angry Bear
• Timothy Snyder on trump-greenland-us-morally-wrong-strategy-disastrous
• Markus Wagner on these-3-arguments-are-part-of-the-long-game-in-trumps-trade-wars
• Jonathan Lemire on trump-liberation-day-tariffs-election
• Julia Preston on in-trumps-dragnet
• Fintan O'Toole on shredding-the-postwar-order
• Brad De Long on tariffs-by-chatbot-trumps-trade-policy-as-AI-generated-farce
• Jeet Heer on trump-academic-purge
• Richard Partington on trumps-idiotic-and-flawed-tariff-calculations-stun-economists
• Niven Winchester on new-modelling-reveals-full-impact-of-trumps-liberation-day-tariffs-with-the-us-hit-hardest
• Eric Levitz on trump-tariffs-reciprocal-trade-war-why-explanation-nostalgia
• the conversable economist on thoughts-on-the-trump-tariffs
• Tyler Cowen on yours-truly-on-the-trump-tariffs-at-the-free-press
• Kruggers on trump-goes-crazy-on-trade , will-careless-stupidity-kill-the-economy

Europe

• Basil Germond on russia-has-most-to-gain-from-black-sea-ceasefire-but-its-marginal-and-ukraine-benefits-too
• Colin Flint on maritime-truce-would-end-a-sorry-war-on-the-waves-for-russia-that-set-back-its-naval-power-ambitions
• Aurelien Mondon on marine-le-pens-victim-narrative-is-already-being-constructed-but-there-are-ways-to-stop-her-criminal-conviction-benefitting-her
• Mainly Macro on last-weeks-spending-cuts-were-not-fault-of-the-OBR
• Isaac Chotiner on what-marine-le-pens-conviction-means-for-french-democracy

Asia

• Adam Simpson on thousands-are-feared-dead-in-myanmars-quake-trumps-usaid-cuts-will-cause-even-more-unnecessary-deaths
• Mark O'Neil on breaking-houthi-resolve-why-trump-s-strikes-won-t-work-any-better-biden-s
• Alvin Camba on chipping-away-controls-singapore-s-challenge-china-linked-companies
• Sanchari Ghosh on india-s-support-chagos-sovereignty-speaks-volumes
• Shijie Wang on yes-some-china-s-educated-youth-just-asserted-sovereignty-over-australia
• Manny Maung on aftermath-myanmar-s-earthquake-reports-emerge-junta-attacking-its-own-people
• Sean Turnell on might-myanmar-s-earthquake-be-catalyst-political-change
• Doris Liew on can-malaysia-s-semiconductor-industry-stream-upwards

Wonk

• the blue stocking on the-bluestocking-361-five-years-on Thanks Nick
• performative bafflement on recycling-is-fake Thanks Nick
• philosophy bear on how-to-change-the-world-a-lot-with-a-little Thanks Nick
• the conversable economist on a-view-from-the-imf-on-nuances-of-industrial-policy, the-ai-market-ecosystem ,the-ocean-related-economy
• Mark Pierce on what-matters-sense-history
• noahopinion on how-brazil-built-a-world-beating-aircraft-manufacturer
• Hussein Nadim on post-911-counterterrorism-failure
• Tyler Cowen on new-issue-of-econ-journal-watch-14

General

• Alexander Howard on the-great-gatsby-at-100-the-jazz-age-novel-that-helps-explain-trumps-america
• Laura Driessen on the-best-space-telescope-you-never-heard-of-just-shut-down
• Claudia Reyes on astronomers-listened-to-the-music-of-flickering-stars-and-discovered-an-unexpected-feature

Climate

• Tim Harford on the-selfish-guide-to-decarbonising
• Jason Chin on reliable-science-takes-time-but-the-current-system-rewards-speed
• Melanie Pill on paris-without-trump-win-planet
• David Appell on new-record-low-for-arctic-sea-ice
• ocean acidification on metabolomic-and-physiological-analyses-of-two-picochlorophytes-from-distinct-oceanic-latitudes-under-future-ocean-acidification-and-warming
• Timothy Neal on global-warming-of-more-than-3-c-this-century-may-wipe-40-off-the-worlds-economy-new-analysis-reveals
• open mind on let-the-idiocracy-begin , excess-heat-in-the-usa
• Rakesh Gupta on what-donald-trumps-dramatic-us-trade-war-means-for-global-climate-action

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• the-unbuilt-bench-experimental-psychology-on-the-verge-of-science
  
• the-reciprocal-betrayals-of-saul-bellow-and-paul-meehl
  
• where-sports-statistics-and-literature-meet-comparing-david-fleming-to-bill-james
  
• who-could-have-imagined-it-the-ipcc-working-group-1-folks
  
• plagiarist-usc-celebrity-doctor-whats-he-been-up-to-lately
  
• theres-no-accounting-for-taste-whodunnit-edition
  
• ai-needs-specialization-to-generalize
  
• exposing-omitted-moderators-explaining-why-effect-sizes-differ-in-the-social-sciences
  
• why-i-no-longer-use-the-term-cargo-cult-science
  
• Freakometrics on how to predict the future
• Nham Tran on scientific-misconduct-is-on-the-rise-but-what-exactly-is-it
• Danny Kingsley on show-your-working-how-the-open-science-movement-tackles-scientific-misconduct
• statschat on bogus-polls-are-bogus-even-for-the-good-guys , tariff-co-incidence
• Kaiser Fung on know-your-data-45-permanence

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• trade-wars-and-fragmentation-insights-new-escb-report
  
• ais-power-grows-so-does-our-workday
  
• abolishing-daylight-saving-time-easy-setting-permanent-time-not
  
• not-all-housing-cycles-are-created-equal-macroeconomic-consequences-housing-booms
  
• living-wages-and-government-contracts
  
• trade-shocks-and-labour-market-outcomes-interplay-between-firm-exposure-and-labour
  
• sources-differences-okuns-law-between-advanced-economies-and-emerging-markets
  
• impact-rent-controls-lessons-catalonia
  
• inflation-wall-street-versus-main-street
  
• eu-supply-chain-tectonics
  
• us-reciprocal-tariffs-upending-global-trade-policy-landscape
  

Tariffs are horrible

 Trump loves tariffs. He is a mercantilist. Only economically illiterate people believe in mercantilism. It means you have either never heard of or do not understand ricardo's law of comparative advantage. We have seen this in practice. The era of trade liberalisation has seen trade grow quite strongly. In Australia we have seen this up quite close since we started to lower out high tariff wall. Australia has become a richer and stronger economy.

Let us go back to the USA. When the manufacture a car a lot of its inputs come from overseas mainly Canada and Mexico. This is because those inputs have lower cost there than in the USA. If tariffs are raised or created then import prices will rise. Imported car prices will rise but US car prices will rise as well because their costs rise as well.

What's more it won't increase employment either. .Employment in manufacturing might rise BUT there are many more jobs in the tertiary industries. Think sales, repairs, design etc. Employment will fall because less cars will produced because of the price rises.

It is the ultimate lose-lose situation!

Only a person of limited intelligence would implement such a policy. Autocrats are attracted to mercantilism. Why I will leave to others.

Whoopsy I forgot to mention that tariffs are simply an indirect tax on imports and thus are quite regressive. Yet again Trump hurts his own supporters

A really good post on gas

 David Leitch at renew ecopnomy has a very informative article on gas. It is a must read!

I am waiting on the Trump disastrous tariffs to be announced.

Kaiser Fung destroys doge

 Master Statistician Kaiser Fung examines doge in a statistical way and finds errors.

It isn't long but highly educational.

Maybe we have a good example of the Peter Principle!