Another rate rise is likely

 the CPI was released yesterday. ( It has both monthly and quarterly data.) Here is John Hawkin's take.

On a quarterly basis the trimmed mean is not looking good. A conservative central bank would raise rates simply because the risk is too great inflation maybe on the rise again. Remember as we have talked about before the economy's speed limit is reasonably low and thus inflation can rise even though GDP is tepid.

The government could reduce spending. Incredibly for an ALP government they have gone big on universal care as the OECD pointed out. Think batteries, e-cars child care etc.

I should also point out the labour force figures overstate the strength of the labour market.  Private sector employment has gone backwards. It is the non-market sector where employment has surged.

I think on balance the correct move would be to raise rates. We do have monthly CPI figures these days so monetary policy can be changed if needed.

the coalition in a mess

 Technically speaking the tile is inaccurate as there is no coalition!  however without one there will never be a change of government and that is a bad thing for Australia.

It is the National party that is at fault here. They had three shadow ministers agree to a policy in a shadow cabinet meeting and then vote against the policy in parliament!  Given it is the whole national party agreeing to this absurd position and we must assume with Littleproud's assertion they will not be in a coalition where Ley is the liberal leader.

This leads us to a position where there will be no coalition for some time to come.

It appears there are only two scenarios going forward.

1. The Nationals climb down from their position which seems unlikely
2. The Liberals choose another leader and thing calm down. This seems unlikely as well as it would show the Liberals kowtowing to the Nationals demand.

We could get to the really stupid position where both the Liberals and Nationals have separate shadow ministers. One major reason for why this is stupid is who gets dumped when eventually there is a coalition.

As I have said Australia needs a strong coalition not only for a change of government but also to keep them honest as they govern. I am unsure as how we get there.

Minnesota what can you say

 Another day another person killed by ICE in Minnesota. He essentially was on the ground firmly held by several ICE agents when shot. He remained on the ground when he was shot dead by various agents. About 10 shots.

Words escape me. It shows an ill trained workforce embolden by their bosses after the Good killing. An agent violently shoved a woman to the ground which started it all. This escalated tensions. It didn't deescalate things.

This really has all come about because the agents are under orders to arrest a certain quota each day!

This all occurs when you elect a convicted criminal to high office. did anyone really think they would not corrupt law enforcement.  The two people who now have no reputation now are Bondi and Blanche.

I am mighty glad I live in Australia.

I think I should add two things.

1.  Trump is underwater bugtime on immigration. Latinos in particular are incensed that ICE is going after ordinary law abiding people and not the 'murderers and rapists'. Miller simply does not understand the economic implications of reducing the labor force so much.
2. ICE pretty much has a deserved reputation for lying about what happens in any situation.This has even occurred in courts!

today is the wrong day to celebrate australia day

 January 26 is when India became an independent nation not Australia. We became a nation on January 1.

Only a nation of morons would celebrate that day on the WRONG day!

Around the Traps 23/1/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Isabelle Oderberg on randa-abdel-fattah-controversy Thanks Nick
• Nick Feik on the-implosion-of-adelaide-writers Thanks Nick
• Genna Lehmann on foreign-investment-screening-could-have-saved-chipmaker-nexperia-what-are-lessons
• Charlene Chan on research-reveals-a-surprising-line-of-defence-against-cyber-attacks-accountants
• Michelle Grattan on defiant-nationals-break-with-liberals-over-hate-bill-putting-strain-on-coalition ,coalition-split-is-massive-blow-for-ley-but-the-fault-lies-with-littleproud
• Victor Abramowicz on keeping-australian-defence-contestability-independent
• Anne Twomey on hate-crime-laws-may-have-unintended-consequences-including-chilling-free-speech
• Linda Botterill on instead-of-a-marriage-the-coalition-should-be-an-on-again-off-again-affair
• Shannon Brincat on carneys-rallying-cry-to-middle-powers-includes-australia-and-we-should-heed-his-call
• Luke McNamara on who-will-bear-the-brunt-of-labors-hate-speech-laws-the-government-has-failed-to-give-a-clear-answer

OZ Climate

• fewer-people-calling-on-coal-suburban-hotspots-revealed-as-home-battery-rebates-top-200000
  
• too-valuable-to-throw-out-labor-announces-first-national-solar-panel-recycling-pilot-program
  
• queenslands-fossil-first-energy-plan-under-attack-with-new-outages-and-evacuation-at-troubled-coal-plant
  
• the-rise-of-battery-storage-and-why-the-grid-is-rapidly-passing-gas
  
• origin-to-keep-australias-biggest-coal-generator-open-for-another-two-years
  
• australias-transition-from-coal-is-being-held-hostage-by-its-obsession-with-spinning-machines
  
• w-a-backflips-on-loss-making-coal-generator-promises-more-subsidies-to-keep-plant-open
  
• australia-should-go-hard-on-evs-exempt-them-from-gst-and-save-40-billion-a-year-in-fuel-imports
• reduced-appetite-for-solar-giant-hybrid-project-slashes-pv-component-by-half-as-it-seeks-green-tick
  
• total-transformation-of-the-australian-summer-climate-change-made-january-heatwaves-five-times-more-likely
  
• shared-solar-labors-free-power-plan-to-have-daily-cap-to-stop-abuse-by-ev-and-home-battery-owners
  
• Lisa Cox and Graham Readfearn on australian-carbon-credit-scheme-solar-electric-vehicles-accused-potentially-misleading-customers

Northern America

• the next move on minneapolis-gaslighting Thanks Nick
• institutional economics on did-nouriel-roubini-curse-us-exceptionalism
• Kruggers on the-stupidest-trump-move-so-far , big-business-should-end-its-faustian, its-sundowning-in-america , maga-delusions-of-economic-leverage , courageous-carney-vs-demented-donald , trump-0-europe-1
• Dustin De  Soto and Astead Herndon  on trump-greenland-congress-war-powers 
• noahpinion on trapped-in-the-hell-of-social-comparison , resistance-is-necessary-but-its-not-enough
• Samuel Garrett on congress-power-has-been-diminishing-for-years-leaving-trump-to-act-with-impunity
• Scott Hechinger on cell-phone-filming-ice-doj-renee-good-shooting
• Anne Applebaum on trump-letter-to-norway
• Peter Orszag on risk-higher-us-inflation-2026 Thanks Tyler
• Drezners world on revenge-of-the-toddler-in-chief Thanks Brad
• renew economy on solar-accounts-for-three-fifths-of-us-electricity-demand-growth-in-2025-despite-trumps-best-efforts 
• Bruce Wolpe on a-year-on-from-his-second-inauguration-trump-2-0-has-one-defining-word-power
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-bruen-wolford-lopez-hawaii
• Fred Kaplan on trump-greenland-obsession-impeach , trump-davos-speech-canada-new-world-order
• Stephanie McCrummen on trump-greenland-obsession-impeach
• Tom Nicholls on us-military-trump-greenland
• new deal democrat on us-has-largely-turned-into-a-banana-republic-in-political-and-economic-terms
• Melissa Tyler on rearview-mirror-america-s-year-foreign-aid-cuts
• Sophie Yi on trump-has-swapped-productive-hypocrisy-crude-exercises-power
• David Frum on fiona-hill-0n-putin
• Christian Paz on ice-minnesota-religious-priest-pastor-faith-immigration-deportation-protest-st-paul-minneapolis-catholic-evangelical
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-the-new-political-economy-of-u-s-trade
• Sassan Glasser on its-time-to-talk-about-donald-trumps-logorrhea
• Andrew Warren on jack-smith-testimony-republicans-question

Europe

• Shannon Brincat on trump-has-threatened-european-countries-with-higher-tariffs-if-he-doesnt-get-greenland-will-it-work
• renew economy on irelands-oldest-wind-farm-closes-down-to-make-way-for-one-of-europes-largest-projects
• Tyler Cowen on is-there-a-british-productivity-comeback
• Jason Ralph on why-keir-starmer-had-to-speak-out-against-trump-over-greenland-after-staying-quiet-on-venezuela
• Eric Van Rythoven on trumps-annexation-of-greenland-seemed-imminent-now-its-on-much-shakier-ground
• Ian Hill on russia-ukraine-war-lost-amid-distractions
• Isaac Chotiner on how-europe-can-respond-to-trumps-greenland-imperialism
• terribly sensible on productivity-comeback Thanks Tyler
• Saxon Wright-Casanova on truth-about-arctic-strategic-competition
• renew economy on wind-and-solar-generate-more-electricity-in-europe-than-fossil-fuels-for-first-time-in-2025

Asia

• Amit Kumar on how-western-unity-taliban-afghanistan-quietly-fracturing
• Kruggers on chinas-trade-surplus-part-iii
• Roland Raja on yes-vietnam-really-winning-trade-wars
• Arkophrabho Hazra on cricket-has-india-s-soft-power-tool-become-strategic-liability
• Susanna Patton on peace-asian-way-china-s-role-thailand-cambodia-conflict
• Yixiao Zhou on to-sustain-prosperity-as-its-population-shrinks-china-will-have-to-invest-big-at-home
• Mark Beeson on ruled-by-engineers-how-china-gets-things-done-leaving-the-us-in-the-dust
• Shadi Rouhshabaz on international-community-failing-iranian-people
• Cora Engelbrecht on a-massacre-in-mashhad

Wonk

• Jason White on automotive-roadsafety-innovation-activity Thanks Nick
• artificial bureaucracy on context-widows Thanks Nick
• Konstantin Zhukov on searching-reporters-homes-suing-journalists-and-repressing-citizen-dissent-are-well-known-steps-toward-autocracy
• Tim Harford on why-populism-became-popular
• Robert Baird on the-crisis-whisperer-how-adam-tooze-makes-sense-of-our-bewildering-age Thanks Tyler
• Anya Arthurs on taking-paracetamol-in-pregnancy-doesnt-increase-your-babys-risk-of-autism-or-adhd-new-review
• Imran Khalid on the-decline-of-sanctions
• noahpinion on zero-sum-economics-keeps-failing , lets-save-the-human-species
• Tyler Cowen on when-did-argentina-lose-its-way , fears-of-larger-wars-in-east-africa ,what-davos-and-mark-carney-get-wrong
• forked lightning on using-generative-ai-to-learn-is-like-Odeysseus-untying-himslef-from-the-mast
• the conversable economist on us-china-competition-for-ai-markets
• Brad De Long on why-are-there-academic-marxists-who-do-not-follow-in-Marx's-footsteps-at-all , noah-smith-needs-to-and-many-othersneed-to listen-to claudia goldin-and-others
• Greg Jericho on the-imfs-banal-language-is-sane-washing-an-economic-crisis-created-by-the-egomaniacal-donald-trump
• Mark Shanahan on one-venue-two-speeches-how-mark-carney-left-donald-trump-in-the-dust-in-davos
• Peter Wehner on maga-christians-betray-ethics-ice
• Sam Roggeveen on rupture-not-transition-carney-s-new-order
• Aylon Berger on sidelining-human-capital-western-industrial-policy
• Chris Dillow on on-regulatory-capture

General

• Chloe Riley on like-jane-eyre-ive-been-seen-as-unconventional-and-abnormal-im-autistic-is-she-too
• Maxime Aubert et al on humanitys-oldest-known-cave-art-has-been-discovered-in-sulawesi
• Anthony Clarke and Chris Kirkland on grains-of-sand-prove-people-not-glaciers-transported-stonehenge-rocks
• David Nicholls on rob-hirst-was-not-the-figurehead-of-midnight-oil-but-he-was-its-backbone
• Upama Aich on why-are-human-penises-so-large-new-evolutionary-study-finds-two-main-reasons

Climate

• Ben Mather et al on the-way-earths-surface-moves-has-a-bigger-impact-on-shifting-the-climate-than-we-knew
• skeptical science on keep-in-ground , wmo-confirms-2025- was-one-of-the-warmest-yearshtml

Andrew Gelman ( mostly stats)

• dont-get-any-on-you 
  
• coding-for-humans-best-practices-for-writing-software-people-can-read
  
• retroactively-validated-hype
  
• noems-razor-never-attribute-to-stupidity-that-which-is-adequately-explained-by-malice
  
• two-workflow-challenges-from-2012-that-were-solved-as-a-byproduct-of-something-else
  
• once-more-about-the-z-curve-method
  
• survey-statistics-total-margin-of-error
  
• what-a-coincidence-what-a-coincidence
  
• aking
  
• concerns-about-analyses-using-the-cooperative-election-study
  
• reducible errors on prediction-markets Thanks Nick
• freakometrics on the government will foot the bill , mathematical advances on emerging risks
• junk charts on the-smell-of-pie-charts , var-technology-is-ruining-football

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• angry bear on book-review-the-edge-of-the-world
• Andrew Moody on my-year-in-books

Vox Wonk

• addressing-europes-services-dependencies 
  
• tariff-reciprocity-and-true-cost-protection-index 
  
• forecasting-inflation-sum-cycles-outperforms-the-whole
  
• minimum-wages-and-insurance-within-firm
  
• socioeconomic-inequality-longevity-larger-we-thought
  
• when-broadband-comes-banks-credit-supply-market-structure-and-information-acquisition
  
• update-great-reallocation-us-supply-chain-trade
  
• central-bank-digital-currency-and-monetary-sovereignty
  
• how-fed-makes-decisions-disagreement-beliefs-and-power-chair
  

The coalition in a pickle

 Wow, three members of the national party who are also in the shadow cabinet thought after shadow cabinet agreed to the new hate laws thought they could vote against the laws.

See  Michelle Grattan

Maybe they were worried about hate-crime-laws-may-have-unintended-consequences-including-chilling-free-speech.  I doubt it.

The essence of cabinet government is once cabinet agrees to something all members of cabinet vote that way otherwise you would have anarchy!

 The Nationals want it both ways. It aint possible.

Why then are the National party reacting thus. Maybe because of THIS. 

The One Nation surge is coming at the expense of the coalition.  They appeal to uneducated, low income regional voters so if this surge stays it is the Nationals who are in trouble rather than the Liberals. The Liberals cannot embrace one nation policies as it would mean losing more seats to teals.

What is interesting is what occurs to preferences. See Kevin Bonham. Just imagine a regional seat where the contest is between the ALP, Liberals, Nationals and one nation. Let us now imagine the ALP preferences flow to the lib.They overtake the national and it becomes a contest between the lib and one nation. How many national preferences would flow to the lib. what a pickle!

I think it is far too early to speculate on these things BUT the Nationals actions means the LNP vote should not recover in the short term.

Is Albo having a Menzies moment?

The security forces are most likely not at fault

 Alas too many people are blaming albo for the bondi massacre which is clearly absurd. Some twits like Minns are associating it with the pro-palestinian protests which on present information would be absurd as well and totally ignorant.

If the terrorist's were highly influenced by ISIS and believed in a palestinian state then they would be all over the place in terms of ideology. Just remember they are in possession of a video from the living terrorist and thus far we have heard nothing meaning it tells us very little.

The murderers were lone wolves and lone wolves are very hard to detect. They used very little if any social media making it so much harder to detect. Finally no-one had a clue about their obvious fanatical beliefs. Neither the wife, relatives or close friends.

In other words it would have been next to impossible to stop the massacre!

In the past preventing any incident has been relatively easy for ASIO and other agencies as the people concerned were idiots and easy to detect. Not so here and the two people were not highly educated. The massacre was highly planned and researched.

One obvious answer to this sad incident is for the authorities to rely more on old fashioned intelligence. This is highly labour intensive and would need 'snouts' that have great discernment. They would need to understand islam intimately for a start.They would thus need to know which preachers are leading towards violence and who are people who believe in their teachings. 

It is all hard yakka but necessary.