Not Trampis

Wednesday, 9 May 2018

The high court does not pass the pub test

When writing this one should take into account I only did introduction to law at university. I still remember Donoghue V Stevenson with great fondness if only for the Judge using the book of Luke to assist in defining who is my neighbour

The High Court in its guise as the Court of Disputed Returns has made a silly decision.
Way back in the Sykes V Cleary decision The Court of Disputed Returns made a sensible judgement on what constitutes making reasonable steps to renounce foreign citizenship.
The Present court has now changed that but have given no reason why. I do find it strange that when new interpretations are made no reasons are given why the previous one was wrong.
See Anne Twomey on the ruling.

Does the decision pass the pub test?

I would argue it doesn't. ironically it appears the UK is the major problem here. The Court has assumed there is no major problem between winning pre-selection and being nominated as a candidate. given what we have seen from both sides this assumption is not realised.

Secondly it appears the black letter law interpretation is selective as George Willams found out to his cost last year.
Lastly the replacement of Fiona Nash was a complete joke. Here the next candidate on the senate list gained a government job AFTER the election. She had no idea Nash would be disqualified. Yet the court ruled this made her ineligible to be a Senator. so she needed to be prescient.

All in all the court does not come out of this looking very good.

The Iran Deal

As one would expect Trump stopped the Iran deal undoubtedly because it was done under Obama.
See:

And Europe's reaction

A few points.

If one does not trust Iran ( and who does) why would you destroy an agreement where inspectors can do can rigorous inspections. No agreement no inspections.

Mike Pompeo in his confirmation hearings could not give any evidence that Iran had broken the agreement indeed no-one has. So the agreement is thus being torn up even though it has not been broken.

This agreement again shows Trump breaks agreement.His word is therefore worthless. No wonder North Korea became a nuclear power on his watch.

The Trump statement is specious at best. moreover there is no plan B! Indeed taken at his word Trump does not appear to understand much about it.

You simply will not get another agreement. No-one is going to sign up with Trump

NO other nation wanted this agreement torn up. All other nations wanted this agreement to continue.

If you wanted Iran to become a nuclear power this is the action you would take.

It seems the only adult, Jim Mattis, has no influence anymore

THIS is very good as is THIS.
Barkley Rosser also.
Lavina Lee has a different aspect to all this/

On Iran this is fascinating

Tuesday, 8 May 2018

Budget 17/18

Before we start on only a few comments on last night's budget I should make a few preliminary comments.
We should always remember the budget came into surplus under Costello at the same time it was projected to under Ralph Willis. The cuts in their first budget were obviated by extra spending in the next budget.
Next the reduction in net debt came about not by budget Surpluses but by privatisaion. Telstra anyone.
Okay now let us get to the budget.

The starting point was $ 9.75B yet it ended up at $14.5B AND spending as a % of GDP rose! This is at odds somewhat with the cyclically adjusted primary budget balance which indicates tighter policy. ( source CBA economics thanks fellas). We also should remember that most of the infrastructure spend is off-budget and this has a highish multiplier. However this spend is merely making up for what should have occurred previously ( during the GFC 'events')

I am pleasantly surprised however that given this was an 'election' budget that most of the proceeds were not blown away of structural spending initiatives. ( Note however the income tax cuts were not matched by spending cuts and this this means a deterioration the structural budget somewhat off set by other measures.

Given the forecasts to nominal GDP this would normally be THE time to increase budget consolidation. Rather than the deficit being 0.8% of GDP it should be below 0,6% of GDP and hence in economic terms balanced ( this is roughly +or- 0,5 % of GDP).

The 23.9% of GDP which receipts of GDP can go no higher is patently absurd. It was higher in most of the Howard years without doing much harm. see the Kouk. A stronger economy always generates more revenue.
It puts almost all budget consolidation measures on spending. Government services are much more a superior good than a normal good.

As to the forecasts there seems to me a discrepancy to me between unemployment and wages. Why are real wages going to rise 1% in real terms when we are yet to reach our NAIRU?

Lastly why oh why is not the budget balance on accrual accounting no in the budget. This is a disgrace and a bipartisan disgrace at that.

Richrd Holden HERE and HERE

Whoopsy. I forgot about the assumptions on Productivity. Even more optimistic than wages.

I also looked at the contingency reserve. That is a lot higher than usual. spending when the election is called?

It appears the tax 'reforms' which has NO ( post forward estimates) details going into 7 years ahead most-of-the-benefits-from-the-budget-tax-cuts-will-help-the-rich-get-richer

Monday, 7 May 2018

Housing: Some Eastwood anecdotes

This is dated information but three housing anecdotes from Eastwood.

Three houses were bought by people who used to live in China but now are or are about to live in Australia.
One was bought on an understanding they would pull it down and build a new house. It was an ugly old fibro. As I know too well, having being brought up in one, they are cold in winter ( or used to be as winter is not as cold these days) and hot in summer.
However the new owners found to their astonishment there was a heritage order on the dwelling. Perhaps to show there was at least one in this suburb!! There is still alterations going on and the new owners are yet to move in.

Another person bought yet another ugly building that used to be a doctor's residence/surgery. For some unfathomable reason the facade must be in place. Nothing yet has been done there.

Another house was bought and only was able to put an extension after a large fight. The extension has 4 bedrooms. The original house had only two.

The suspicion is a lot of redevelopment around here is being done to get in students from China who would rent whilst studying at Macquarie University. This is only a suspicion however

The A-League Grand Final

A couple of short articles today.
The A-League Grand final was a tremendous success. The almost fairy tale finish of the Newcastle Jets made the whole week quite remarkable for football.
The atmosphere on the night was electric and then of course we had the problem of the VAR.
I thought the Jets were the better team on the night but do not begrudge the Victory their win. Their goal-keeper was simply outstanding and their whole defence was very good in the second half.Indeed I was a tad surprised that the Jets did not come up with tactics to overcome their highly predictable defensive set up.

I was disappointed in the Referee who allowed some tackles he most certainly did not during the season. The linesmen were more disappointing as they have been for some time.

I have said previously the VAR is not compatible with a flowing game like the beautiful game. Fancy having a breakdown just when it was needed ( sarc intended).

Overall a great way to end the season. On that read Roy Hay.

My thinking is that the FFA should tell Wellington their time is up and then give us three new teams from perhaps Wollongong, Geelong and Canberra.

Sunday, 6 May 2018

Catallaxy is at it again

Oh dear, no wonder they support Trump. The writers lie brazenly like him and thee people who comment are as ignorant as him!

First let us examine Sinkers. He is at it again in saying the last ALP Government has plenty of revenue. He is a master of using a kernel of truth when using the big lie. He is a master Goebbelsist!

He uses dollar revenues which anyone who has studied economics is garbage. Revenues should always rise. Whether they are strong or weak can essentially only be determined by examining the revenues relative to GDP.
The lowest Receipts got to as a % of GDP when the Liberals were in Government was 24.9%.
It didn't get within cooee of this when the ALP was in power. Indeed it only got to levels seen when Paul Keating was Prime Minister.
( HERE I showed his dishonesty in 2015. I used tax as a % of GDP where here I am using Receipts here.)
Wow Sinkers is at it again on taxable income. This dreary claim that people on modest taxable incomes benefit from negative gearing. Taxable income is income AFTER you have claimed tax deduction like negative gearing!

Second let us examine Alan Moran again. He does not like Kerry Schott stating the obvious which is renewables based power stations are cheaper to build and operate then coal powered stations.
He first says they are being built overseas so they should be built here wow great economic argument that one.
Next he says the mineral council has analysis that shows new coal power plants could be built with the price being 40 MWh. Only one problem. no-one believes it. No investor , no financier, No-one. Lets face it if the Minerals Council was anywhere near the mark the plants would be being announced helter skelter.
He then has a go at her CV except he does not know it. I know she worked at BT Australia but Moran does not. It wasn't on Wikipedia!!
He says she has little experience in energy matters. Huh
She a Chairman of the board for a company in the electricity industry BEFORE her appointment to the Energy Security Board. She has an illustrious background in working in both the public and private sectors. She can certainly understand if investment projects add up or not
If only Al had the background and experience.

He also implies she was responsible for two undesirable things whilst at Sydney Water and then electricity ( how she could do this but not understand the electricity market only big Al can understand). does he not know the government in both cases told her of the policy? He must know that she works under government policy

Three woeful articles which are easily refuted. It is quite obvious no-one who writes at Catallaxy cares two hoots about their reputation because they shred them each time they write.
moreover writing to such a dumb downed crowd makes then all lazy. Add Sinkers of banning anyone who disagrees except for a token ( I'm looking at you M0nty) despite being a great believer of free speech ad that no-one from Catallaxy wanders out at all and engages people at other blogs and you get a classic case of a echo chamber a pretty stupid one at that.