Around the Traps 2/11/13

It is time for Around the Traps.
Too many quality articles to comment on separately but David Glasner, Kruggers, Nick Rowe, Simon Wren-Lewis, Matt Cowgill et al are in sparkling form. AND Francess Woolley is BAACK!

I will update on Sunday


Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Matt Cowgill on the-commission-of-audit-has-begun, a-tale-of-two-tax-increases, a-tale-of-two-tax-increases-part-two, its-not-1996-anymore, tilting-the-scales-towards-the-aged, tilting-the-scales-towards-the-aged-part-ii
• Peter Martin on housing-we-are-supporting-already-rich
• Mumble on abbotts_first_newspoll
• Simon Copland on the-coalition-are-not-guaranteed-victory-in-2016
• Mark the Graph on r-code-for-reading-abs-spreadsheets
• John Quiggin on catalyst-and-charlatans
• The Pollbludger on courting-trouble
• Brian Banisch on labors-commitment-to-carbon-pricing

Northern America

• Mark Thoma gives us Jared Bernstein on the-latest-aca-dust-up-should-not-be-a-dust-up
• Calculated Risk on key-measures-shows-low-inflation-in-September
• Livio De Matteo on the-health-care-cost-curve-bending-if-necessary-but-not-necessarily-bending
• Yichuan Wang on of-course-monetary-policy-is-asset-swap
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy and fed-watch-a-bit-on-the-hawkish-side
• Menzie Chinn on snap_expenditure_reductions
• Mark Thoma gives us Adrianna McIntyre on where-is-the-outrage-over-employer-sponsored-coverage-in-the-rate-shock-debate
• Pro-growth Liberal on greg-mankiw-and-lisa-myers-on-tale
• Peter Dorman on still-confused-about-inflation-after-all-these-years
• Jared Bernstein on no-wonder-were-stuck-in-a-slog

Europe

• Mark Thoma on look-whos-gloomy-about-europe
• Simon Wren-Lewis on the-official-cost-of-austerity, politicians-are-not-all-same
• Jeremy Cohen-Setton on did-nominal-interest-rates-fail-to-spike-during-the-run -on-the-franc (1920s)
• Chris Dillow on the-wage-problem

Asia

• Carola Binder on abenomics-and-japanese-inflation

Wonk

• Guan Yang on eugene-fama-explained-kind-of-part-3, is-default-moral-assorted-thoughts
• Kruggers on   currency-regimes-capital-flows-and-crises-wonkish and then John McHale on the-anti-confidence-fairy, sin-and-unsinn, france-1930-germany-2013
• Edward Lambert on a-study-in-the-dynamics-of-international-flows-1, a-study-in-the-dynamics-of-international-flows-2, a-study-in-the-dynamics-of-international-flows-3, a-study-in-the-dynamics-of-international-flows-4
• David Glasner on hawtreys-good-and-bad-trade-part-viii-credit-money-and-banking-systems

General

• Mark Thoma on adam-smith-never-believed-that-greed-is-good
• Nick Rowe on depository-vs-non-depository-financial-institutions, asset-prices-and-the-retirement-revolution, on-letting-the-market-set-interest-rates
• Linda Beale on deficit-disorder-symptoms-via-naked-capitalismnew-economic-perspectives
• Chris Dillow on economics-good-and-bad, against-forecasts, marxism-socialism-technology
• Tim Harford on how-to-make-money-from-a-nobel-cause
• Simon Wren-Lewis on something-we-can-all-agree-on

Climate

• Rabette run on lewandowsky-invariance
• John Quiggin on hand-it-back
• Paul Frijters on the-pragmatic-climate-policy-for-australia
• Real Climate on a-new-european-report-on-climate-extremes-is-out
• Gareth Renowden on where-the-wind-blows-it-rains-arctic-warming-and-wacky-jetstream-ruins-european-summers

Andrew Gelman ( The king of the p values)

• talk-amsterdam-tomorrow-wed-29-oct-can-use-bayesian-methods-resolve-current-crisis-statistically-significant-research-findings-dont-hold ( full of wonderful links)
• berri-gladwell-loken-football-update
• value-added-modeling-education-gaming-system-sending-kids-field-trip-test-time
• Scientific America on correlation-vs-causation
• Good Stats Bad Stats on Income equality- change the list

Dave Giles (the bespectacled econometric genius)

• the-joys-of-publishing
• swirl-learning-statistics-r-using
• some-weekend-reading ( most would only appeal to econometric heads)
• Brad De Long on christopher-a-sims-bayesian-methods-in-applied-econometrics-or-why-econometrics-should-always-and-everywhere-be-bayesian

Dianne Coyle + Frances Woolley ( quirky and book reviews)

• Dianne on hirschman-mania-continues, random-recommendations, fortune-tellers-astrologers-and-economists, poverty-fear-and-loathing
• Frances on why-do-people-put-stuff-that-isnt-recyclable-into-the-recycling-bin
• Andrew Gelman on writing-free, data-science
• Scientific America on krugmans-theory-of-interstellar-trade
• Tim Harford on teachers-could-predict-exam-grades-better-but-not-much
• Nick Rowe on what-will-really-old-stupid-and-uneducated-people-do  THIS happens to me!

Vox wonk

• get-together-kids
• alternatives-credit-rating-agency-assessment
• do-multinationals-expand-abroad-invest-less-home
• effect-regulation-banks-liquidity-buffers
• reduced-uncertainty-and-japan
• peer-effects-friendships-and-adolescent-outcomes

The Costs of Austerity

Simon Wren-Lewis examines the official costs of Austerity in Europe.

please note that Europe did not get any growth what so ever by imposing these policies when their economies were slowing. It made their economies WORSE!

Here is a table he uses in his article

GDP losses due to Eurozone fiscal consolidation (including spillovers) 2011-13. Source European Economy Economic Papers 506, Table 5.

	Impact on GDP 2013	Cumulative Impact 11-13
Germany	3.9%	8.1%
France	4.8%	9.1%
Spain	5.4%	9.7%
Ireland	4.5%	8.4%
Greece	8.1%	18.0%

Note where it starts. It isn't when the GFC occurred but well after .

Note too the cumulative impact on the economy.

Those fools who say Greece has not adopted austerity at all should apologize!

Okay any sane person knows you do not impose austerity policies when the economy is slowing. Almost all countries which did this in response to the GFC had a DEPRESSION which is not a recovery!

The time to do it is when the economy is humming along fine thank you very much. Bill Clinton did this, Paul Keating and Peter Costello did this in Australia.

Keynes 4  Austerians 0!

The pricing of Carbon

Just compare and contrast

Here is John Quiggin  and there is Samuel J .

Note too the comments generated.

Now guess which one of these three  whoopsy  two  believed the most contractionary budget since 1971 was expansionary!

Say no More! Oh Forrest

Lou Reed RIP

Lou Reed was one of the greats  in rock and roll music.

His live albums Rock n Roll Animal and then Lou Reed Live were possibly the best ever live albums.

His 1975  live performances at the Hordern pavilion were the best live acts I have ever seen. It was just like the above albums. As far as I am concerned they were the best concerts I ever saw. Rock'n'roll Animal was the best live album I have ever heard.

The concert was just like the album. So here is what it was like .

First Intro and then Sweet Jane. That is Steve Hunter on guitar.

 and then to end it all  rock'n'roll

Sensational

Around the Traps 25/10/13

It is time for Around the Traps. Dave Giles is back from his hairdresser and actually has some articles!
Nick Rowe, Kruggers and Simon Wren-Lewis are still in god good form. I have enhanced the Climate section after finding out about Roger Jones's blog. Andrew Gelman is always good value. Wonk is always valuable reading and Voxwonk has again some interesting articles. As an aside I find Chris Dillow, a Marxist, surprisingly interesting reading.
Great weekend reading!

Cricket all day tomorrow and Junior Representative Cricket has started in Sydney and I will be umpiring so updates on perhaps Monday morning

Australia, Australia,Australia,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Skeptikoi on the great disinflation
• Mumble on lessons_from_miranda, what_happened_on_7_september, loughnanes_bragging_rights
• Matt Cowgill on how-expensive-are-australian-restaurants, how-many-people-are-employed-in-small-businesses, the-commission-of-audit-has-begun, a-tale-of-two-tax-increases
• Peter Martin on for-hockeys-ears-only-treasury-shuts-the-door-on -FOI, expenses-its-white-lie-thats-worst-one, shocking-carbon-tax-has-pushed-prices
• Stephen Kirchner on horizontal_fiscal_equalisation_in_australia
• Harry Clarke on daft-coalition-policies-7-promoting-climate-change-lies and then John Quiggin on falling-off-the-tightrope and abbotts-sister-souljah-non-moment and then compare to Joshua Gans
• Andrew Elder on the-second-time-as-farce

Canada and some other country

• Brad De Long gives us sumit-aggarwal-et-al-predatory-lending-and-the-subprime-crisis-noted
• Mike Kimel on california-v-red-states-what-causes-growth-and-the-great-stagnation
• Menzie Chinn on american_debt_chinese_anxiety_elaborated
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy and fed-watch-worth-the-wait
• Progrowth Liberal on the-greenspan-fed-and-housing-bubble
• Jared Bernstein on health-reform-implementation-a-little-historical-perspective-please
• David Andolfatto on employment-slumps-in-canada-and-us  Thanks Mark
• Mike Konzal on what-kind-problem-aca-rollout-liberalism
• Simon Wren-Lewis on what-is-wrong-with-usa
• Nick Rowe on the-best-cure-for-easy-money-is-easier-monetary-policy
• James Hamilton on why_isnt_inflation_lower?

Europe  (or is it France and other countries)

• Brad De Long gives us Sheri Berman on -socialism-with-german-nationalist-characteristics-noted ( okay it is history but)
• Mark Thoma gives us paper-by-eu-economist-backs-austeritys-critics
• Robert Waldeman on ben-bernankepoulos-mets-erskine-fatas

Asia
Nutting agin!

• Brad De Long on paul-krugman-ppp-and-japanese-inflation-expectations-noted

Wonk

• Kruggers on bowlesonomics-versus-abenomics, godwin-and-the-greenback
• Simon Wren-Lewis on is-currency-crisis-bad-for-you-at-zlb
• Nick Rowe on forward-guidance-and-the-term-structure-in-new-keynesian-models, immaculate-transfers-and-the-monetary-transmission-mechanism
• John McHale on simon-wren-lewis-on-the-measurement-of-structural-balances
• Edward Lambert on projecting-the-utilization-of-labor-and-capital, a-weird-case-for-a-higher-interest-rate
• Kevin O'Rourke on private-debt-public-debt-and-crises
• Brad De Long on the-only-non-incoherent-argument-for-north-atlantic-fiscal-austerity-today-that-i-know
• Carola Binder on people-are-different-partial
• John Aziz on on-depressions-structure-of-production
• David Glasner on microfoundations-aka-macroeconomic-reductionism-redux
• John Quiggin on the-macro-foundations-of-micro-crossposted-at-crooked-timber

General

• Chris Dillow on the-capitalist-state, intellectuals-in-politics, shares-in-people, economics-as-science
• Livio De Matteo on our-gross-saving-not-so-gross
• Carola Binder on the-beggar-maid-economics-and-alice
• Nick Rowe on random-thoughts-on-house-prices
• Simon Wren-Lewis on rational-expectations-media-and-politics

Brian Banisch ( Climate)

• quicklink-roger-jones-on-bolt-on-bandt
• Roger Jones on how-to-read-an-ipcc-report ,fire-and-climate-no-smooth-ride
• John Abraham and Dana Nuccitelli on global-warming-pause-meaning
• Real Climate on sea-level-in-the-5th-ipcc-report
• John Quiggin on free-riders
• Kruggers on climate-change-gambling-civilization
• Gareth Renowden on australias-burning-again

Andrew Gelman (the King of the p values guru)

• cant-stop-wont-stop-mister-p-beatdown
• ivy-jew-update
• chasing-the-noise-w-edwards-deming-would-be-spinning-in-his-grave
• we-agree-that-everyone-deserves-a-second-chance-but-we-do-prefer-when-those-given-a-second-chance-acknowledge-that-they-did-something-wrong
• the-bayesian-approach-to-forensic-evidence
• uncompressing-the-concept-of-compressed-sensing
• Kaiser Fong on unsampling-how-a-meaningless-word-invaded-big-data, private-debt-public-debt-and-crises
• Good Stats on fast food, wages & government subsidies

Dave Giles ( the bespectacled  eccentric econometrics guru)

• a-segmented-regression-problem
• solution-to-segmented-regression-problem
• lawrence-r-klein-1920-2013
• chris-sims-on-bayesianism
• segmented-regression-some-relatively

Dianne Coyle and Frances Woolley ( Where for art thou Frances?)

• Lord Keynes on kings-nicholas-kaldor-chapters-13
• Dianne on hirschman-mania-continues, two-histories-of-publishing, random-recommendations

Voxwonk 

• budget-wars-1575-version
• fama-hansen-shiller-nobelists-2013
• solvency-ii-three-principles-to-respect
• agglomeration-explains-lancashire-s-high-wage-success
• banking-union-europe-where-do-we-stand
• forward-guidance-new-vox-ebook
• massacre-memories-german-car-sales-and-ez-crisis-greece
• distance-frictions-and-firm-border-effects-knowledge-creation-evidence-japanese-patent-data
• finance-and-growth

Castle: Was there method in Marlowe's madness?

We have now had 5 episodes in series 6 of Castle and I can now shout from the rooftops Marlowe has his mojo back. ( I am saying Marlowe but including the whole team here.)  I might add it is about time.

It is fantastic to have that eager enthusiasm to watch the next episode ( over the Internet) and simply enjoy the moment and know this is the GREATEST series of all time!

IMHO there NEVER will be two people in a series who act as they are totally in love as Nathan Fillion and Stana Katic. This gives the series its magic.

But to our topic at large. We have been quite critical of the final arc and the first two episodes here.

(See castle-is-it-about-to-jump-shark? , castle-beckett-watershed-dc-job-and-rest, castle-questions-and-some-advice-for-Andrew-Marlowe and maybe even castle-debate-about-andrew-marlowe )

However let us give Mr Marlowe the benefit of the doubt. What if his main story was Beckett learning from her many mistakes. After All he paints her as stupid and selfish BUT we know overall she is not like that.

(Even some of us ageing people have been known to be stupid and selfish but change when given advice from our wives!)
We know Beckett really did not think about both the DC job nor her relationship very much when she accepted the DC job.
She showed a complete lack of self awareness on her part ( i.e. she did not understand what made her tick).
She has no idea of what getting engaged meant nor how the job would impact her,Castle and Caskett.

She is unquestionably a far different woman since the engagement and since the sacking.

This I believe Marlowe is showing the whole DC job to be her watershed moment except it is a lengthy watershed moment and ongoing.

She is growing emotionally and maturing in the relationship. Let us remember she has little experience of this compared to Castle. (How ironic she was suspicious of Castle at first but he has vastly more experienced than her in lengthy relationships.)

Thus I find it quite brave of Marlowe to portray Beckett as both stupid and selfish for a short time however I do applaud his general direction of her as a person.

She has learnt from her mistakes. A person who went to business school could not have done better!

Update:
Beckett revealed in the episode she moved into a place with a bloke in her life. more grist to the mill for my married man thesis. ( see Kate Beckett update )

The bushfires and climate change

In the recent bushfires Greens MP apparently wrote a newspaper article the innumerate Andrew Bolt disagreed with.
Via Brian Banisch I came across Roger Jones rebuttal.

Then Roger has written fire-and-climate-no-smooth-ride.