The Government's policy on Asylum Seekers makes no sense

The government insists their push back policy on boats involving  asylum seekers works. no boats have come to Australia Well very few.
If this is the case then it matters not if they allow such people on Nauru to live in Australia.
People smugglers cam promise the world to asylum seekers however they will not make it to Australia.

Next we have the government insisting any asylum seeker that is allowed to live in New Zealand never be allowed in Australia.  This is so obviously absurd I won't even go into the argument. some kiwis are allowed into Australia but not others?

how about those who are now in the US. how come this does not apply to them?

I have been to both countries and New Zealand is ca much more pleasant country than the US!

This is a government that clearly has no idea on anything.

Robert Menzies: A Life

I recently read this two volume biography of the great man  by A W Martin. Although very sympathetic to Menzies it is not a hagiogrphy.

I must say I was unimpressed by this biography.
Let us take elections. There were a hellva lot of them in Menzies lifetime yet we do not even get a paragraph on any on them.
Take the controversial 1954 election. We get a few sentences where we learn at the end the ALP got the majority of the vote. This is irreconcilable with what the author had written about the campaign.

Most people take it for granted Menzies was very good at constitutional law given that is how he made his repudiation yet he merely states Menzies stated in the 1949 the ALP could still nationalising the banks despite both the High Court and Privy council ruling against this. What were Menzies's arguments. We do not know. Was this a political ploy or did his statement have substance. We do not know.

Martin tries unsuccessfully to show Menzies was not embarrassed by the Sues crisis and the UN debacle but I think his heart was not in it. This is also the case on south Africa. I think without realising it he shows Menzies as a man who simply does not realise the winds were changing in the world and Menzies did not realise this.

One major defect was the inability to perceive how restrictive trade practices were the norm in Menzies time.There was no competition. Why and how was this allowed? We do not know indeed this topic is not even broached!

The only time we learn of Menzies work habits was after the 1949 election. People were used to Chifley arriving at work at 8. Menzies did not arrive until 10!
Perhaps relation to this Martin completely avoids why Menzies wore double breasted suits everywhere and anytime, whether it be the tropics in Malaya then Malaysia or summer in the USA. Why would the man do such a stupid thing. He was obese. He wanted to wear clothing which did not highlight this. Thus I am not convinced by Martins reasons Menzies was not indolent.
Menzies loved cricket but taking valuable days of his working life to watch a game of cricket is another example of indolence Martin does not appreciate.

Martin quite regularly says understood his brief on economic matters yet he NEVER proves proof of this. This is very frustrating. Perhaps Martin like Menzies does not understand economics.
Indeed we never learn from this book that following the 1949 election win Australia has its highest inflation rate and by far its highest current account deficit as a % of GDP. Economics is not covered very well at all. For those of us who read all about the Vernon report at University and how Whitlam embraced this Martin's commentary on this subject is very one-sided/.

Okay I have been critical thus far so let me get sympathetic to Menzies, He is brought in to Federal politics from State politics to replace Lyons when he retires. Lyons himself confirms this. Many times he tells Menzies he is weary of politics BUT he never retires. Menzies finally resigns from Cabinet on a matter of principle.
Why did not Lyons resign as he wanted, No question in my mind it was his wife. In this instance Menzies was no Keating.


We might cogitate that Menzies left his party with no direction.  They should have lost in 1969. his cabinets were lacklustre ( I do not realise in 1949 the highly impressive John Dedman was beaten by Hubert Opperman who at best could be called a  plodder.
I think this is a good place to stop as this typified the Menzies era.

Menzies was a very lucky man. If either Curtin was still alive or Chifley had not had a brain explosion on banks it is unlikely Menzies would have regained government. In both 1954 and 1961 fair electoral boundaries would have seen him beaten.Again this is never broached,

This should have been a very enjoyable biography however it merely proved frustrating. This is a great shame.

A Political Earthquake occurred on Saturday

Well Well,
The largest swing in political history has helped Kerryn Phelps to a win in the Wentworth by-election.

Make no mistake this is a political earthquake. This seat has been solidly liberal ( or part of its forebears) since Federation.
We saw two things. Firstly many Liberal voters were heartily sick of the party given its internal divisions. There was a huge swing from former Liberal voters. Secondly we saw very strategic voting from many Labor and Green voters. both wanted to see Phelps run second on primary votes and then win in preferences.

Why did this occur?
Well add to a very divided government a poor performance by the Prime Minister. We should remember he is a relatively inexperienced parliamentarian.It showed. He campaigned very poorly and was very poor under pressure. He was very good at telling voters on how to get the independent voted in just for example. An unstable government can hardly plead for stability.

It would not be hard to see Phelps hold this seat for some time. At least until the ALP are on the nose.
Expect  quite a few independents to put their hand up for the next election and trying to win either Liberal or National 'safe' seats on ALP preferences as occurred here.

We should end by saying I am always amused to always hear in circumstances like this That they have heard the message from the voters yet when asked what they will change the answer is always nothing!

Around the Traps 19/10/18

It is time yet again for Around the Traps
Problems with the internet so hopefully will update later. I see it is affecting other blogs as well.It is affecting Dave Giles blog for a start.  Hey all fixed now.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Jasyanthis Kumarasiri et al on big-firms-voice-lack-of-faith-in-cumbersome-and-impractical-emissions-reduction-fund
• Rodger Shanahan on what-should-australia-do-about-saudi-arabia
• Croaking Cassandra on sluggish-productivity-growth-and-financial-crises, interest-rates-us-and-new-zealand, the-corruption-of-new-zealand-politics, the-swamp, what-to-make-of-the-inflation-data, thoughts-prompted-by-the-tape, whats-happening-with-immigration
• Doverbeach on queenslands-proposed-legislation-would-allow-effectively-unrestricted-abortions-beyond-22-weeks
• Pat Ranald on the-senate-is-set-to-approve-it-but-what-exactly-is-the-trans-pacific-partnership
• Kieran Hardy on how-the-australian-government-is-failing-on-countering-violent-extremism
• Mark the Ballot on polling-update
• Ross Gittins on not-sure-what-economys-up-to-nor-are-the-experts
• Greg Jericho on australias-housing-boom-is-not-heading-for-a-soft-landing-how-did-we-get-here, penalising-low-skilled-unemployed-who-are-already-doing-it-tough-is-absurd
• Daniel Flitton on australias-israel-palestine-conflict
• Tony Walker on shifting-the-australian-embassy-in-israel-to-jerusalem-would-be-a-big-cynical-mistake
• Ran Porat on moving-the-australian-embassy-to-jerusalem-makes-sense-heres-why
• Chris Barrie on australias-naval-upgrade-may-not-be-enough-to-keep-pace-in-a-fast-changing-region
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-the-housing-market-might-deflate-but-it-might-pop-heres-how
• Judith Brett on the-morrison-governments-biggest-economic-problem-climate-change-denial
• Ricardian Ambivelance on another-perspective-on-aussie-jobs

Northern America

• new deal democrat on tracking-trumps-trade-wars-inventories-and-intermodal-traffic
• Eswar Prasad on trump-economy-stock-market Thanks Mark
• Jeffrey Sachs on america-ongoing-civil-war Thanks Mark
• Jens Christensen on slope-of-yield-curve-and-near-term-outlook Thanks Mark
• Brad Setser on trumps-stimulus-trumps-his-trade-policy Thanks Mark
• Regulatory Review on restoring-science-economics-epa Thanks Mark
• Progrowth liberal on us-saudi-trade, fiscal-dishonesty-from-cnbc-and-our-treasury-secretary
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-september-housing-starts
• John Lee on killing-chimerica
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-the-role-of-debt-dynamics-in-us-household-consumption

Europe

• stumbling and mumbling on brexit-marxists-the-state
• Mainly Macro on implications-of-german-export-success, theres-a-brexit-deal-the-country-can-live-with-but-the-government-cannot

Asia

• Vivienne Chow on shifting-sands-in-hong-kong
• Alexia Underwood on saudi-journalist-khashoggi-disappearance-trump-response-congress-sanctions-magnitsky
• Mehmet Ozalp on the-war-in-syria-may-be-ending-but-is-likely-to-bring-a-fresh-wave-of-suffering
• Khang Vu on second-trump-kim-summit-necessary

Wonk

• Tim Harford on how-to-burst-your-political-filter-bubble
• Cecchetti and Scoenholtz on assessing-housing-risk Thanks Mark
• Brad De Long on crisis-of-beliefs-and-the-2008-crash Thanks Mark
• The Everyday Economist on a-simple-lesson-about-money-and-models Thanks Mark
• stumbling and mumbling on mcveys-rumsfeld-assumption
• Eric Lonergan on why-is-universalism-losing
• the conversable economist on do-remittances-help-growth-lebanon-story
• Maggie Kourth-Baker on why-politicians-dont-always-listen-to-political-scientists

General

• Barkley Rosser on who-is-bigger-terrorist-threat-iran-or-saudia arabia
• Tyler Cowen on how-streaming-changed-song-structures
• Scientific American on the-science-of-inequality Thanks Mark
• the conversable economist on canada-legalizes-marijuana-whats-up-in-colorado-and-oregon

Climate

• David Appell on what-percentage-of-arctic-sea-ice-is-gone
• Real Climate on climate-without-borders-putting-changing-climate-into-a-new-perspective
• Bernadette McCabe on how-biomethane-can-help-turn-gas-into-a-renewable-energy-source
• James empty blog on the-bet-final-outcome
• Open Mind on flirting-with-disaster-greenhouse-gas-report, global-temperature-in-the-air-up-there
• and Then Theres Physics on focusing-too-heavily-on-public-mobilization-and-exposing-denial

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• understanding chicagos homicide spike
• he-had-a-sudden-cardiac-arrest-how-does-this-change-the-probability-that-he-has-a-particular-genetic-condition
• toward-better-measurement-k-12-education-research
• david-brooks-discovers-red-state-blue-state-rich-state-poor-state
• fitting-besag-york-mollie-spatial-autoregression-model-discrete-data
• predicting-spread-flu
• ethics-in-statistical-practice-and-communication-five-recommendations
• statschat on briefly

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• Marc Bellamare on identification by functional form

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• the-enlightened-economist-prize-2018-the-winner
• bestpresidential bios on review-of-richard-milhous-nixon-the-rise-of-an-american-politician-by-roger-morris, review-of-president-reagan-the-role-of-a-lifetime-by-lou-cannon Thanks Jim Rose
• Cat Rotators Quarterly on book-review-american-dunkirk

Vox wonk

• explaining-geographic-variation-health-care-use
• making-modern-metropolis-evidence-london
• why-education-reduces-crime
• depositors-discipline-scandal-hit-banks
• marriage-equality-and-tolerance-towards-lgbt
• basel-standards-and-developing-countries
• intergenerational-transmission-socioeconomic-status
• taxation-and-innovation-20th-century
• effectiveness-bank-japan-s-large-scale-stock-buying-programme
• impact-us-china-trade-war-east-asia
• asymmetric-business-cycle-risk-and-social-insurance
• secular-decline-us-employment-over-past-two-decades
• tax-credits-and-job-creation-multinational-enterprises
• sources-wto-s-woes-decision-making-s-impossible-trinity
• central-bank-communication-and-yield-curve
• financial-mistakes-households-and-their-social-costs
• real-illusion-how-monetary-factors-matter-low-long-rates
• william-nordhaus-and-costs-climate-change

Yes Barnaby Joyce is mad

Imagine you are part of the government. you have recently discarded your leader and thus Prime Minister. what is the last thing you would want.

A change in National Party leadership.
Yet Barnaby Joyce is stalkng the present National Party leader. Even that great radio intellectual giant Ray Hadley is on the act.

A change in leadership would simply exacerbate the perception the government is a disorganised rabble..
Joyce's  political judgement has been 'poor' indeed 'very  poor' since he actively adopted adultery .
The thought that McCormack would background Ray Hadley is laughable unless you believe he has the judgement of Joyce.
Joyce is yesterday's man. He has been found out. He would be easy fodder for the ALP.
Kevin hogan is sitting on the crossbench because he realises this is a much better look for him to succeed politically. (It also helps he believes in his stand as well).

It doesn't matter if you have a leadership spill after the Wentworth by-election the voters there already know Joyce is stalking so the damage is done.

This is yet another reason to toss the government out.

The Australian housing downturn

Our old mate Ricardian Ambivalence has written two excellent articles on the australian housing downturn. They are here-comes-the-housing-downturn and the-problem-with-aussie-housing.

He highlights that some of the people who have interest only payments CANNOT AFFORD TO REPAY THE PRINCIPAL.

My hunch is the RBA is sweating over this.

The Wenworth by-election

The Wentworth by-election is on Saturday. Remember the pitfalls of seat polling. HERE and HERE. This of course includes 'private party polling'.

What I find interesting is how the Liberals are reacting.

At first they were very confidant of winning the seat. They were slagging off Kerryn Phelps, which a lot of journalist and pundits have repeatedly told us is capable of winning the seat without proving a scintilla of evidence, early in the campaign.

How things have changed with Morrison in almost panic mode pleading for people not to vote for Phelps.

In all this Tim Murray the wholly impressive candidate has been ignored.

I will say the seat should change given that the Liberals are a disorganised rabble however we shall see.

Postscript:

I only just found out that Morrison is proposing to move our embassy to West Jerusalem. .The Liberals are not just worried they are very very scared.